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2 hours ago, HTTRDynasty said:

Lack of bend was something Danielle Hunter was heavily criticized for coming out as well. He still found a way to get 14.5 sacks last year. Albeit Hunter was younger (and a lot more raw) coming into the league.

 

Guys win in different ways. We just need for Sweat to develop an elite move, and an elite counter to that move, that can win at the NFL level.  Everything else is gravy. 

 

What he can do with that reach & speed is unique, he should be as uncomfortable to block as anyone in the league. 

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His perceived lack of "great" bend doesn't bother me. I do think he has good to solid bend especially given his size. I think Burns had the best bend but wasent as complete a football player as Sweat.  It's the off-season but I'm feeling the Julius Peppers comp. Been reminiscing with his highlights lately.

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Posted (edited)

https://www.nbcsports.com/washington/redskins/position-battles-montez-sweat-locks-starting-spot-what-about-cole-holcomb

 

On the defensive side of the ball, Montez Sweat actually has a chance to be the best Redskins rookie in 2019 despite being Washington's second first-round pick. 

 

A freak athlete with a strong track record of production in the SEC at Mississippi State, Sweat looks like the instant starter at outside linebacker opposite Ryan Kerrigan. Third-year pro Ryan Anderson could and likely will push Sweat for competition, but the rookie's speed should prove the difference. 

 

Not only does Sweat look like an immediate starter, but he also looks like he could be a contender for Defensive Rookie of the Year. The talent is that real. 

Edited by 98ORAKPO98
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Posted (edited)

One of the things that I’m exited for is how well he gets after it vs. the Run. He’s gonna need it too because they are gonna run right at him a lot. He’s game though not too worried. But there is no doubt you need to let the young man attack the QB all day. Use that length and speed to wreck shop. His addition gets lost in the QB hype but his affect can be huge.

Edited by COWBOY-KILLA-
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16 hours ago, HTTRDynasty said:

Lack of bend was something Danielle Hunter was heavily criticized for coming out as well. He still found a way to get 14.5 sacks last year. Albeit Hunter was younger (and a lot more raw) coming into the league.

 

Guys win in different ways. We just need for Sweat to develop an elite move, and an elite counter to that move, that can win at the NFL level.  Everything else is gravy. 

 

Hunter has become the go to best case scenario for Sweat because of the similarity of their body types and athletic skill sets.  I watched a bunch of Hunter cut ups from LSU and compared them to stuff form last season, and I think there are some important differences between him and Sweat that have me pumping the breaks on my Sweat optimism a little bit.

 

I guess the main thing that jumped out at me about LSU Danielle Hunter that was different from Sweat were the instincts.  It's not a problem for Sweat, but they really jump off the screen as being superb with Hunter.  He was a beanpole player with significant strength disadvantages most games, but he was always around the football.  Hunter plays through his blocks like a linebacker.  That really translated to the NFL.  Now that he's beasted out and got his man strength, you see him making sacks and TFLs through his blockers in a way that is special.  I don't think Sweat has the same playmaking instincts and mentality to disregard his blockers on the way to the ball.

 

I think Sweat will be good, but I don't think he'll be as good as Hunter.  A perennial Probowler rather than an All Pro dominant force like Hunter.

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9 minutes ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

Hunter has become the go to best case scenario for Sweat because of the similarity of their body types and athletic skill sets.  I watched a bunch of Hunter cut ups from LSU and compared them to stuff form last season, and I think there are some important differences between him and Sweat that have me pumping the breaks on my Sweat optimism a little bit.

 

I guess the main thing that jumped out at me about LSU Danielle Hunter that was different from Sweat were the instincts.  It's not a problem for Sweat, but they really jump off the screen as being superb with Hunter.  He was a beanpole player with significant strength disadvantages most games, but he was always around the football.  Hunter plays through his blocks like a linebacker.  That really translated to the NFL.  Now that he's beasted out and got his man strength, you see him making sacks and TFLs through his blockers in a way that is special.  I don't think Sweat has the same playmaking instincts and mentality to disregard his blockers on the way to the ball.

 

I think Sweat will be good, but I don't think he'll be as good as Hunter.  A perennial Probowler rather than an All Pro dominant force like Hunter.

 

I see what you mean.  I haven't watched much LSU tape on Hunter, but I've watched him in the NFL and I agree with your take on how he usually wins.  Although he isn't as instinctual, Sweat definitely has physical advantages over Hunter - speed, obviously (4.41 vs. 4.57 40yd) and length (35 3/5 inch arms vs. 34 1/4 inch arms).  The length is the big one.  He has longer arms than most OTs in the league.  If he can become an elite technician with his hand-fighting, and you add the speed factor to threaten the edge, there's no doubt in my mind he'll get 12+ sacks every year.  So yeah, I agree, Hunter isn't a perfect comp for Sweat, but I do think Sweat can use his other gifts to become a perennial All Pro if it all clicks for him.

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, HTTRDynasty said:

 

I see what you mean.  I haven't watched much LSU tape on Hunter, but I've watched him in the NFL and I agree with your take on how he usually wins.  Although he isn't as instinctual, Sweat definitely has physical advantages over Hunter - speed, obviously (4.41 vs. 4.57 40yd) and length (35 3/5 inch arms vs. 34 1/4 inch arms).  The length is the big one.  He has longer arms than most OTs in the league.  If he can become an elite technician with his hand-fighting, and you add the speed factor to threaten the edge, there's no doubt in my mind he'll get 12+ sacks every year.  So yeah, I agree, Hunter isn't a perfect comp for Sweat, but I do think Sweat can use his other gifts to become a perennial All Pro if it all clicks for him.

 

Outside of the 40 times, they were actually really close when it comes to everything else at the combine, especially measurements of explosion and agility. I'd say it's basically a wash. Verticals were basically the same, Sweat had a slightly faster 10 yard split (though both had elite times), but Hunter had a slightly longer broad jump. Sweat had a better 20 yard shuttle but Hunter had a slightly better 3 cone drill. Hunter put up 25 reps, Sweat 21. Sweat has 1.5 inch longer arms but they both have those big ass wing spans. Sweat weighs slightly more and is almost an inch taller.

 

The 40 time at that weight and size is almost superhuman, but it really isn't all that relevant when talking about how it translates to his position. I'm much more excited about his elite 10 yard split than his 40 time. I think he was at 1.55 which is faster than Von Miller.

Edited by mistertim
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2 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

Outside of the 40 times, they were actually really close when it comes to everything else at the combine, especially measurements of explosion and agility. I'd say it's basically a wash. Verticals were basically the same, Sweat had a slightly faster 10 yard split (though both had elite times), but Hunter had a slightly longer broad jump. Sweat had a better 20 yard shuttle but Hunter had a slightly better 3 cone drill. Hunter put up 25 reps, Sweat 21. Sweat has 1.5 inch longer arms but they both have those big ass wing spans. Sweat weighs slightly more and is almost an inch taller.

 

The 40 time at that weight and size is almost superhuman, but it really isn't all that relevant when talking about how it translates to his position.

 

I agree 40 times don't translate directly, just an example of what a freak Sweat is.  And Sweat had a 1.50s 10 yard split, and Hunter had 1.58s.  That's a lot faster than just "slightly" IMO.

 

Most of Hunter's other testing results, most notably the short shuttle and 3 cone drill, came at his pro day, which I don't take as seriously as I would Combine numbers.  Regardless, I agree Hunter is a physical freak too.  My point is that Sweat is on another level.

 

Also, when it comes to arm length, that extra inch and a half makes a huge difference.  For example, Trent Williams has 34 and 1/4 inch arms, same as Hunter, which obviously makes it tougher for Hunter to win with length than it would if he had arms 1.5 inches longer.  

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7 minutes ago, HTTRDynasty said:

 

I agree 40 times don't translate directly, just an example of what a freak Sweat is.  And Sweat had a 1.50s 10 yard split, and Hunter had 1.58s.  That's a lot faster than just "slightly" IMO.

 

Most of Hunter's other testing results, most notably the short shuttle and 3 cone drill, came at his pro day, which I don't take as seriously as I would Combine numbers.  Regardless, I agree Hunter is a physical freak too.  My point is that Sweat is on another level.

 

Also, when it comes to arm length, that extra inch and a half makes a huge difference.  For example, Trent Williams has 34 and 1/4 inch arms, same as Hunter, which obviously makes it tougher for Hunter to win with length than it would if he had arms 1.5 inches longer.  

 

Oh the extra inch and a half definitely makes a difference. I was mostly comparing their explosion and agility which are pretty close. What I found for Sweat was 1.55 in the 10 yard split. Where did you see 1.5?

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Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

Oh the extra inch and a half definitely makes a difference. I was mostly comparing their explosion and agility which are pretty close. What I found for Sweat was 1.55 in the 10 yard split. Where did you see 1.5?

 

I know there was some confusion with different numbers, but I'm pretty sure 1.5s is the real number:

 

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000001021021/printable/2019-nfl-scouting-combine-twelve-numbers-that-matter-most
 

Quote

 

At 6-5 3/4 and 260 pounds, Montez Sweat's first 10-yard split on the 40-yard dash was 1.50 seconds. This helped him earn a 4.41-second 40 time, which is the fastest by a defensive lineman since 2003. The average 10-yard split for a Pro Bowl edge rusher since 2003? 1.67 seconds. The Mississippi State product's three-cone result of 7.0 seconds also hit a predictive benchmark (7.0 or lower) that flags for above-average and elite NFL production.


 

 

Quote

Mississippi State’s Montez Sweat was the clear winner on the day. The 6-foot-6, 260-pound edge rusher clocked an official 4.41 in the 40—a record for defensive linemen. Times for the 40 can get overblown for pass rushers, but Sweat’s 1.5-second 10-yard split was the second best among edge defenders (TCU’s Ben Banogu, who also dominated virtually every test, finished with a 1.47) and indicates an excellent initial burst. To go along with that performance, Sweat recorded a broad jump that landed in the 92nd percentile among edge rushers since 1999 and a three-cone drill time in the 83rd percentile. Sweat was already considered a potential first-round pick heading into the combine, and he likely moved up a few draft boards on Sunday.

https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2019/3/3/18249222/combine-five-thoughts-day-5-pass-rushers-nick-bosa-josh-allen

Edited by HTTRDynasty
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Thanks, @HTTRDynasty. That looks like a better source than the ones I saw for 1.55.

 

One other thing I found...Hunter's broad jump was 5 inches longer than Sweat's but apparently was measured somewhere other than the combine (I'm assuming pro day). That doesn't necessarily mean it was wrong, but it's not really a full apples to apples comparison since they weren't measured in the same environment. 

 

Yeah, a 1.5 flat 10 yard split is just ludicrous...especially for a 6'6 260 lb dude. 

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Instincts beat speed.  That's where Hunter separates himself as special.  But Montez is undoubtedly further along as a rookie than Hunter was.  He's two years older and has a decent rush repertoire and his sack production was way better.  Hunter made a lot of plays but very few sacks.  He was more of a run defender, making stops based on hustle and instinct, with very little craft and development.  Montez is still raw, but he has moves.

 

I think Montez could end up being a better pass rusher than Hunter, but that Hunter is the better overall player.  But if Montez can be 90% of the player Hunter is, that's a probowler.  He'd be one of the best players on the team.

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

Instincts beat speed.  That's where Hunter separates himself as special.  But Montez is undoubtedly further along as a rookie than Hunter was.  He's two years older and has a decent rush repertoire and his sack production was way better.  Hunter made a lot of plays but very few sacks.  He was more of a run defender, making stops based on hustle and instinct, with very little craft and development.  Montez is still raw, but he has moves.

 

I think Montez could end up being a better pass rusher than Hunter, but that Hunter is the better overall player.  But if Montez can be 90% of the player Hunter is, that's a probowler.  He'd be one of the best players on the team.


In general, I trust your draft analysis over mine, but I'm not sure I'm buying the that Hunter's ceiling is better than Sweat's because of better instincts. Hunter was a similar sized, but smaller, and similarly athletic, but less so, prospect when compared to Sweat. Hunter put up 4.5 sacks in 3 years of college. People say it's because his body wasn't developed, but Sweat played at 245 and put up 5 less reps of 225 at the combine. If Hunter's instincts were so much better, and his size and athleticism were similar, why was he so dramatically outproduced by Sweat? Even in the run game, Sweat had the top run stop percentage of all edge rushers this year. Nobody heralded Hunter as a run stopper. The only way Hunter was a superior prospect, IMHO, is that he was younger. 

 

Sweat is stiffer than I would like. He isn't as good with his hands as someone like Bosa, or Brandon Graham. He didn't produce on the level of someone like Josh Allen or Von Miller. But, he is a generational athlete that did produce at a high level. He has a chance to be great. I think his likely floor, if he doesn't get injured, is Jadaveon Clowney. A guy that is great against the run, and not as good as expected rushing the passer, but still very productive. I do think however that he will produce sacks at a higher level than Clowney. 


I really expect Sweat to excel against the run. He looks like he could easily carry an extra 10 pounds. I expect that with 2 years in an NFL strength program, he would put up 30 reps instead of 21. He's already long and powerful. After watching him plant Dalton Risner and Tytus Howard on their asses, I'm confident that strength will translate. 

 

Where Minny was brilliant was in getting Hunter in the 4th. They basically got a Rashan Gary athlete in a later round, and he turned out to be productive. 

Edited by Anselmheifer
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1 hour ago, Anselmheifer said:

In general, I trust your draft analysis over mine, but I'm not sure I'm buying the that Hunter's ceiling is better than Sweat's because of better instincts.

 

This was a good post, but I think I should try and define instincts better, because I recognize that it's a nebulous term and not a convincing argument in the face of hard numbers like career sack totals and athletic test numbers.

 

Good Instincts is the way I sum up a very complicated gestalt that I get where I assess a player's native talent and intelligence for playing the game itself.  Winning football at the situational level.  Being able to anticipate what's going to happen instead of having to wait to react to it.  Developing unique styles and technical skills to cope with disadvantages and disadvantageous situations.  Playing with a level of confidence and aggressiveness that demonstrates you're processing the game at a higher level than the guys around you.

 

You see all of that come out in a guy making unusual plays, but this is NOT the same thing as a guy making plays via unusual technique.  Tom Brady is arguablythe most instinctive QB in the league, but he doesn't play with unusual technique.

 

Anyway, it's really hard to quantify the level of a guy's instincts.  There is a lot of noise in football stats because role is such a factor in production, but a really rough way of quantifying instincts in defensive players is stuff like tackle and TFL production.  When a defender has unusually high tackle numbers for his position, especially for his age, it can be an X marks the spot type signal to dig through the kid's film, because he likely has superior instincts.  That was the case for Danielle Hunter.  It's very unusual that he had so many tackles as a true hand in the dirt right end in a really good 4-3 defense.  He was third on that defense in tackles behind two really good stack linebackers in Kendall Beckwith and Kwon Alexander.  It's hard to put up big tackle numbers as a defensive end when you're defense is good too.  And it was even more unusual that he did this at 20 years old.  And the most unusual thing about his production was that he had so many TFLs despite not getting sacks.  1.5 sacks that season and yet he put up almost as many TFLs as Sweat.  Put on the film and you quickly see unusual playmaking talent.  You see a level of processing and aggressiveness that was superior.  He was playing through his blockers and staying locked in on the real point of the play--the ball--in the way that the very best players do.

 

And if you're a really great evaluator, you can not just identify, but properly weight the value of this unusual playmaking ability, set aside the fact that he has no refinement or skill in the highly technical art of pass rushing, and see the potential for growth into a dominant all around defensive player.  I sure as **** couldn't have done all that with Hunter in 2014, I needed four years of hindsight to figure out how good he was.  Somehow the Vikings were able to do it and it's a testament to how good their front office people are.

 

So instincts is shorthand for a lot.  And it can be really hard to get a true read on a player's instincts.  But I personally weight it extremely heavily in evaluation and projection.  I find that it's often the big reason for when my takes deviate significantly from the consensus.  This year it was stuff like being way, way higher on Dwayne Haskins, David Montgomery, Byron Murphy, and Te'Von Coney than most.  Being way, way lower on Devin Bush, Jeffery Simmons, and Rashan Gary than most.  Being meaningfully lower on Nick Bosa than the consensus, and from an early point in the process.  Being way higher on Clelin Ferrell than everyone but Mike Mayock, apparently.  And right now, it's the reason I'm not as bullish on Montez Sweat as I wish.  The gap between his and Hunter's instincts is enough to where I don't think Montez will be as good as him even though he's a better athlete and he's coming into the NFL with much better skill as a pass rusher.

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McQueen, that is a great answer. Thanks for clarifying. I agree that racking up a bunch of tackles on the DL correlates with and is an objective measure of having good instincts/ball awareness. That’s part of what makes Jonathan Allen so special. 

 

Also, I’m not sure I’m that much more bullish on Sweat than you are. His ceiling is of course fantastic, but I think it’s just as likely that he’s never a 15 sack guy. Still, if he’s a 10-12 sack a year guy that generates pressure and is very good against the run, he’s a huge addition to our DL and a steal at pick 26. 

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Posted (edited)

@stevemcqueen1 and @Anselmheifer

 

great conversation!!!  Lots of good discussion!  Thanks!  

 

Love Sweats ceiling.  Totally agree with ansel that if he even ends up being a 10 sack guy who can play the run well he is a great addition.  He should make the other guys around him better. 

 

Cant wait till we can see him in live competition.  

Edited by goskins10
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12 hours ago, HTTRDynasty said:

 Just curious, I’m guessing you completely agree with the Sweat take from the guy speaking in the video below?

 

Yeah he makes some good points, highlighting the more reactive play in Sweat's game.  Also does a good job pointing out the value of Sweat's speed.  Goes along with the bottom line take I think I've settled on--Sweat has higher upside as a pass rusher than Hunter, but lower upside as a run defender and all-around edge defender.

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Yup, the thing I'm most excited about with Sweat is how he effects our 3rd Down efficiency. Everything else is gravy at this point. If he helps us go from 29th to top 15 in 3rd Downs this year, I'm incredibly happy about this pick.

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I have noticed that Keim has mentioned multiple times how much he has liked Sweat rushing from the inside at mini-camp. I wonder if this is on stunts and twists, or if they are actually lining him up inside at times. 

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Posted (edited)

I loved reading this from Jim Tomsula about Montez Sweat. If there is any group I'd want him to be working with and accepted by when it comes to work ethic, it's our d-line. Plus it says a lot about how he's meshing with the team, when you compare this with Zach Brown ****ing about how our team is "cliquish" or whatever and supposedly each group sticks to itself.
 

Quote

Up front on the defense, however, there's nothing but difference makers. Jonathan Allen has a chance to become nationally-known as a disruptor in his third year and Daron Payne isn't far behind him. Matt Ioannidis, meanwhile, just picked up a well-earned contract extension, and Tim Settle and Caleb Brantley are two options Tomsula is dying to give more time to.

 

And, as it turns out, Tomsula's Six is trying to recruit another member, even if only on a part-time basis: Montez Sweat, whom Tomsula called "freakish."

"These guys have grabbed Sweat," Tomsula said, sounding proud. "Sweat's the one guy they bring over to lift weights with them. Sweat's the guy they bring in when we do our boxing." 

 

The thought of a pass rusher as gifted as Sweat absorbing the approach of players like Allen and Ioannidis can only be described as tantalizing.


https://www.nbcsports.com/washington/redskins/redskins-defensive-line-young-loaded-and-focused-and-jim-tomsula-enamored-it

 

Edited by Fresh8686
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Posted (edited)
On 6/2/2019 at 7:21 AM, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

Yeah he makes some good points, highlighting the more reactive play in Sweat's game.  Also does a good job pointing out the value of Sweat's speed.  Goes along with the bottom line take I think I've settled on--Sweat has higher upside as a pass rusher than Hunter, but lower upside as a run defender and all-around edge defender.

 

Any reason to think Sweat's instincts may significantly improve with NFL coaching?  Especially considering that he was a tight end recruit coming out of high school and was moved to defense at MSU (and only played 4 games total his first two years there before transferring)?

 

May be a little unfair to compare his instincts to guys who have been playing on the DL from Pee-Wee football through present.

 

 

19 minutes ago, Fresh8686 said:

I loved reading this from Jim Tomsula about Montez Sweat. If there is any group I'd want him to be working with and accepted by when it comes to work ethic, it's our d-line. Plus it says a lot about how he's meshing with the team, when you compare this with Zach Brown ****ing about how our team is "cliquish" or whatever and supposedly each group sticks to itself.

 

Thanks, love reading that as well.  I wonder who the 6th is in "Tomsula Six" though.  You have JA, DP, MI, TS, and CB.  Who's the 6th?

 

EDIT: Just looked at the depth chart.  Only two others listed are JoJo Wicker and Ryan Bee.  I imagine they're referring to Wicker, since he is higher on the depth chart.  He was a UDFA we signed last year.  

Edited by HTTRDynasty
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