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2019 NFL Draft discussion thread

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Sweat will have a Preston Smith type impact.  Is that worth 2 high picks?  You could of had Burns at 15.  Then trade up for Haskins if you really want him. He was due to slide BIG time.

 

I wouldn't be as disappointed in Sweat if we ran a 43 front.  But he and Kerrigan taking turns out in space? *Cringe*

 

SweatUK1.gif

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37 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I've been relatively kind to Manusky.   But if Foster can stay healthy (which is a big if) and Sweat is who I think he is -- this should be a top 10 defense.  So if they don't play up to that level, I wouldn't blame them from moving on from him.

 

In the third round you can get a receiver today and a guard or tackle who can be converted into one.  Guessing who might be there, maybe:

 

Arcega-Whiteside

Jace Sternberger (he's a TE but love him as a weapon)

McLaurin (Haskins' old teammate) 

Andy Isabella

C. McGovern

M. Deiter

Dru Samia

K. Harmon (though not sure I like him, got to watch him today)

 

Guessing Deebo, AJ Brown, Butler, Campbell are gone

 

 

 

Manusky is terrible. The thing that pissed me off about the Swearinger situation is that Swearinger was absolutely right. And they never suspended him for his prior incidents. They jumped from no discipline to cutting him. Imagine this defense with Landon Collins and Swearinger. The nice thing about having all of this talent on defense and now finally having a QB, is that we should be able to tempt a very good DC, finally. 


I like your list, except McLaurin sucks. He's the definition of JAG. Using the advanced predictive metrics that consigliere discussed at length in the comprehensive draft thread, breakout age, dominator score, etc, McLaurin has almost no chance to be a starting caliber player. 

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23 minutes ago, arftech said:

Jesus!

 

21 minutes ago, Tedskins 21 said:

 

Agreed, we need him.

 

Vet min, plus incentives.  

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So I went to bed after pick 20, and my wife went to the bathroom and I decided to see who got picked.  Skins were on the clock and I did get to see the Sweat pick.  I'm excited about him (mostly name, will obviously start looking more now). 

 

I hope they groom Haskins and don't force a starting gig week one.  If he is ready, so be it, however all things point to a slower transition.

 

Last year they got 2 1sts (Guice/Payne) from early reports and this year they did a similar deal.  While I generally hate trading up, a 2nd rounder in 2020 could have easily been a 1st 2020, and it's all far better than Haskins at 3 (if that was ever a thing).  Good job with round 1. 

 

I get the move up thoughts for 2nd, but I'm really hoping they get WR/OL in 3rd and just go from there.

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This team has done well with late-round picks.

 

Load up the offense. Defense is stacked, even with "holes" at CB and FS, we have bodies there that are young and can prove themselves in 2019. We got our Edge, which was a hole. We can certainly grab a DB if there's one that falls who is BPA and I wouldn't complain.

 

But we have 7 picks. I want 5 of them on offense. And I want some youth injection at WR and TE and LG to really drive this train forward and give Haskins some long-term weapons to work with.

 

Wouldn't even hate a double-down on WR in Round 3 if the right pieces are there.

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So, about today:  

 

Do we have needs, that he have to pick, in the 3rd?  Or at least, positions that are more attractive than others?  

 

Do we need to go 2 OL in the 3rd?  WR?  Best available offensive player?  

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34 minutes ago, DC9 said:

 

I think he's a downfield thrower and Jay is a WCO-ish HC.

 

Regardless, I love the pick because for me Haskins is/was the only 1st round QB in this draft.  I'm shocked he fell.  It would've been a sin not to take him even if he isn't a "scheme" fit.  I think KOC can make that work.

 

I also am a Jay guy, but if he can't adjust himself to get the most out of this kid, bye.

 

I agree with that but felt like the most guys where kinda short sighted. "He is not mobile" 

 

I don't think it's that hard to make it work. I would not let him do mostly play action bootleg anticipated throws to a spot a WR needs to end up. But you can just do the regular play action and bit longer developing routes. We have plenty of does. The quick short stuff is also not a problem for him, with the compact quick release. 

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7 minutes ago, wilco_holland said:

 

I agree with that but felt like the most guys where kinda short sighted. "He is not mobile" 

 

I don't think it's that hard to make it work. I would not let him do mostly play action bootleg anticipated throws to a spot a WR needs to end up. But you can just do the regular play action and bit longer developing routes. We have plenty of does. The quick short stuff is also not a problem for him, with the compact quick release. 

 

He can move around the pocket.  He needs to get better at setting his feet, but he is just fine.  I don't think we need a QB that needs to run the ball 50 yards a game.

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Posted (edited)
35 minutes ago, Anselmheifer said:


I like your list, except McLaurin sucks. He's the definition of JAG. Using the advanced predictive metrics that consigliere discussed at length in the comprehensive draft thread, breakout age, dominator score, etc, McLaurin has almost no chance to be a starting caliber player. 

 

I like Consig's takes but I don't think the dude or anyone else has the WR position nailed based on the dominator scale.   If a WR has a Qb who doesn't tend to go deep and conversely has another receiver within the same group who puts up big numbers -- then said receiver will score lower on the dominator scale.   So like I told him IMO you have to factor context.  

 

And just like i told him as you go deep in the draft, its tougher to find the robo cop style players with both elite producers and combine guys.  I know he argues otherwise.  But I disagree. 

 

Mclaurin isn't in my 2nd tier group of fav receivers.  But look if we aren't choosing among Deebo, Butler, etc then we can't pretend in that case the menu is different then it likely will be in the third.   I'd love to be surprised and have Deebo or whomever drop into the third but i am not counting on it.   McLaurin is not my top guy in the third tier but he's among the ones I like. 

 

He's not exactly chopped liver as an athlete.    He run a freaking 4.35 40 yard dash and a 1.54 10.   He's also 6 "1 and over 200 pounds who did 18 bench presses.  So not exactly a yawn as for his athleticism.   And 700 yards from a QB who didn't seem to throw deep much ain't bad either.    Neither is a 71% catch percentage.   Neither is a 153 passer rating when targeted. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited by Skinsinparadise
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4 minutes ago, DC9 said:

 

He can move around the pocket.  He needs to get better at setting his feet, but he is just fine.  I don't think we need a QB that needs to run the ball 50 yards a game.

 

That's what most people think 😂. Just like when we got Alex. People thought that would be a big thing for the O. Having a more athletic QB....but check Jay his history. 

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38 minutes ago, Tedskins 21 said:

Sweat will have a Preston Smith type impact.  Is that worth 2 high picks?  You could of had Burns at 15.  Then trade up for Haskins if you really want him. He was due to slide BIG time.

 

I wouldn't be as disappointed in Sweat if we ran a 43 front.  But he and Kerrigan taking turns out in space? *Cringe*

 

 

 

Ugh. This is baseless. He's Preston Smith if Preston Smith had twice as many sacks his last 2 yers in college, was taller and longer, ran a 4.4, dominated Senior Bowl practices and was projected as a top 10 pick and then fell based on  a non-issue cardiac diagnosis. So, not at all like Preston Smith. 

 

Also, we are in a 4-2-5 front, the equivalent of a 4-3 nickel package, more than 70% of the time. 

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2 minutes ago, Anselmheifer said:

 

Ugh. This is baseless. He's Preston Smith if Preston Smith had twice as many sacks his last 2 yers in college, was taller and longer, ran a 4.4, dominated Senior Bowl practices and was projected as a top 10 pick and then fell based on  a non-issue cardiac diagnosis. So, not at all like Preston Smith. 

 

Also, we are in a 4-2-5 front, the equivalent of a 4-3 nickel package, more than 70% of the time. 

Buuurrnnn son!

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6 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I like Consig's takes but I don't think the dude or anyone else has the WR position nailed based on the dominator scale.   If a WR has a Qb who doesn't tend to go deep and conversely has another receiver within the same group who puts up big numbers -- then said receiver will score lower on the dominator scale.   So like I told him IMO you have to factor context.  

 

And just like i told him as you go deep in the draft, its tougher to find the robo cop style players with both elite producers and combine guys.  I know he argues otherwise.  But I disagree. 

 

Mclaurin isn't in my 2nd tier group of fav receivers.  But look if we aren't choosing among Deebo, Butler, etc then we can't pretend in that case the menu is different then it likely will be in the third.   I'd love to be surprised and have Deebo or whomever drop into the third but i am not counting on it.   McLaurin is not my top guy in the third tier but he's among the ones I like. 

 

He's not exactly chopped liver as an athlete.    He run a freaking 4.35 40 yard dash and a 1.54 10.   He's also 6 "1 and over 200 pounds who did 18 bench presses.  So not exactly a yawn as for his athleticism.   And 700 yards from a QB who didn't seem to throw deep much ain't bad either.    Neither is a 71% catch percentage.   Neither is a 153 passer rating when targeted. 

 

 


I don't particularly care about dominator score. Breakout age has the tightest correlation, and makes an awful lot of sense to me. It's like a college basketball player. Everyone that is going to be good in the NBA is also good as a freshman/sophomore. Almost no exceptions. I agree that McLaurin is a good athlete. He wasn't that productive at Ohio State. There are a ton of guys I'd take before him. 


To be clear, I'd be fine with McLaurin later in the draft. Not in the 3rd. 

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So, has the strength of the draft shifted? Seems round one was mainly about defense and pass rushers. 

 

What are the the strongest positions now?

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Posted (edited)
11 minutes ago, Burgold said:

So, has the strength of the draft shifted? Seems round one was mainly about defense and pass rushers. 

 

What are the the strongest positions now?

WR, CB, S, IOL

Edited by JamesMadisonSkins
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2 minutes ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

WR, CB, S, IOL

Cool. Two of those are chief areas of need. 

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Just now, Burgold said:

Cool. Two of those are chief areas of need. 

I think we should get a starting caliber WR in the 3rd and LG. But I think the Flowers signing is going to give us some flexibility to wait on LG until the 5th potentially. I threw out some names of guys that could be there and may not be "day 1 starters" but could certainly be quality starters in Year 2 and beyond.

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1 minute ago, Anselmheifer said:


I don't particularly care about dominator score. Breakout age has the tightest correlation, and makes an awful lot of sense to me. It's like a college basketball player. Everyone that is going to be good in the NBA is also good as a freshman/sophomore. Almost no exceptions. I agree that McLaurin is a good athlete. He wasn't that productive at Ohio State. There are a ton of guys I'd take before him. 


To be clear, I'd be fine with McLaurin later in the draft. Not in the 3rd. 

 

OK, cool, thought you said in your previous post that he sucks.    😀

 

For me, from watching him I think he has potential.  He made plays when Haskins threw to him.  McLaurin's numbers were insane when he was actually thrown the ball to. 

 

It's the same narrative that we got on Dawson Knox.  Knox didn't put up big numbers but if you sit through the games you see him get open regardless if he was the go to guy.  Hence some are jazzed about his potential in the NFL.  Me among them.   

 

For Haskins his go to guy was Campbell.     I can deal with breakout age in a vacuum as a variable but IMO not so much when other things cancel it out.  And most importantly, I don't think the next tier of receivers will be available in the third.  Right now am guessing best available receiver might be Arcega-Whiteside .  If so he'd be my guy but if we have to go deeper down the well -- I wouldn't mind McLaurin especially because of him playing with Haskins.   The other I'd add is McLaurin burned it up at the Snior Bowl competing against some of the better prospects from college.  That usually means something.

 

But anyway off my soap box on McLaurin.  I don't love him.  I do like him in the 3rd tier group.  My preferred guy in that group is Arcega-Whiteside.  I'd love it to be Deebo, Brown, Butler, etc but I think they will be gone.    I got to watch some Harmon and Isabella today and form an opinion.   Good debate I am going to miss this stuff after Saturday. 😧

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Haskins, Guice, Sweat. Excited to see those pups run.

 

I think Hakeem Butler would look nice in B&G, but know the chances of that are slim.

 

Would actually like for us to trade back and pick up a 4th if possible. Lots of talent out there. Do your thing Kyle.

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Sweat isn't really the same type of player as Preston Smith. I mean they're both pretty lengthy but Smith didn't really have explosiveness off the edge. Sweat can be a double digit sack guy. With that said, Smith was underratedly solid vs. the run and Sweat might be a liability against the run early on in his career.

11 minutes ago, AlvinWaltonIsMyBoy said:

Haskins, Guice, Sweat. Excited to see those pups run.

 

I think Hakeem Butler would look nice in B&G, but know the chances of that are slim.

 

Would actually like for us to trade back and pick up a 4th if possible. Lots of talent out there. Do your thing Kyle.

Honestly if we didn't make the dummy mistake of investing so much money and years into Alex Smith last year, I'd actually really like our position moving forward. We got some nice young talent and not too many really bad contracts. But the Smith deal will really handicap us for the next year or two.

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1 hour ago, DC9 said:

 

I think he's a downfield thrower and Jay is a WCO-ish HC.

 

Regardless, I love the pick because for me Haskins is/was the only 1st round QB in this draft.  I'm shocked he fell.  It would've been a sin not to take him even if he isn't a "scheme" fit.  I think KOC can make that work.

 

I also am a Jay guy, but if he can't adjust himself to get the most out of this kid, bye.

I’ve watched multiple film analysis segments from various folks on him and all seem to agree he’s a great fit for a WCO and that his short and intermediate accuracy is elite, among the best for recent draft prospects, and that his downfield game is the area in which he needs the most work (though it still flashes greatness at times). I’ve also seen several segments that indicate that possibly his greatest asset as a QB are his pre-snap reads, defensive scheme recognition, and knowledge of the game. I know you’ve said nothing of the latter, but what are people reading to make them think this kind of stuff? I don’t see a single thing in his game that isn’t coachable and I see plenty of things that make him the anti-RG3 (knowledge of defensive schemes, pre-snap reads, etc.)

6BFA198B-B843-4C22-9FEF-5104A3FA0F5F.jpeg

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44 minutes ago, Anselmheifer said:

 

Ugh. This is baseless. He's Preston Smith if Preston Smith had twice as many sacks his last 2 yers in college, was taller and longer, ran a 4.4, dominated Senior Bowl practices and was projected as a top 10 pick and then fell based on  a non-issue cardiac diagnosis. So, not at all like Preston Smith. 

 

Also, we are in a 4-2-5 front, the equivalent of a 4-3 nickel package, more than 70% of the time. 

 

I understand we go to Nickel well over half the time. 

 

This isn't "baseless."  I watched Miss St games.  I am not saying he's a bad player, far from that. But he did benefit from Jeffery Simmons on the inside. He lacks that bend/flexibility/fluidity to take it to the next level.  He can get 10 sacks for us, but that will be from the benefit of what we have already in our front 7.  I just think we could have gotten a better impact player in Brian Burns.  

 

I guess we will see.

 

46 minutes ago, CaptainJames2004 said:

Buuurrnnn son!

 

Nice contribution.

12 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

Sweat isn't really the same type of player as Preston Smith. I mean they're both pretty lengthy but Smith didn't really have explosiveness off the edge. Sweat can be a double digit sack guy. With that said, Smith was underratedly solid vs. the run and Sweat might be a liability against the run early on in his career.

Honestly if we didn't make the dummy mistake of investing so much money and years into Alex Smith last year, I'd actually really like our position moving forward. We got some nice young talent and not too many really bad contracts. But the Smith deal will really handicap us for the next year or two.

 

Not saying same player exactly.  I am saying more than likely a similar impact.  I agree he should have more pressures/sacks.  We definitely lacked speed on the edge, and glad we addressed it.  I just think we could have addressed it better.

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1 minute ago, Tedskins 21 said:

 

 

But he did benefit from Jeffery Simmons on the inside. He lacks that bend/flexibility/fluidity to take it to the next level.  

 

 

I'd like to introduce you to Matt, Da'Ron and John.

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