goskins10

2019 ES GMs Mock Draft - Final!

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Packers draft analysis:

1/12/12 (35) - OT Jawaan Taylor

1/30/30 (155) - LB Mack Wilson

2/12/44 (24) - RB Josh Jacobs

3/11/75 (86) - TE Kahale Warring

4/12/114 (81) - S Will Harris

4/16/118 (165) - DL Joe Jackson

5/12/150 (160) - DL Daylon Mack

6/12/185 (88) - LB Cody Barton

6/21/194 (ud) - S Zedrick Woods
7/12/226/ (166) - QB Easton Stick

 

Let's just get this over with.  I did not do any homework, really, prior to the start of the draft.  In the first round, I was playing catch-up learning who's who and where to expect people to go.  That said, I feel like my first round picks where traps that anybody could have gotten burned on, though perhaps others would have taken them a bit later.  That said, let's dig in.

 

Jawaan Taylor - I thought he was a highly-touted OT who'd go early in the draft, but he fell all the way to the top of the 2nd round.  Not great value for me here.  I had strongly considered T.J. Hockenson, but thought I'd do the "smart" thing and take the un-sexy OL pick rather than the splashy TE.  😕

Mack Wilson - Okay, I didn't read all that much about him.  I did see that he flashed a lot of talent early but then regressed.  I figured people would be higher on him because of his latent talent, but I guess not.  I have a hard time believing his regression took him all the way down to the 5th round.  I probably should have waited a little to take him, but again, no homework.  Can't remember if this was one of my clock-started-at-the-wrong-time picks where I was rushed to just take somebody.  Either way, how many people saw him dropping entirely out of not only the 2nd round, but all the way out of the 5th?  It's a conspiracy, I tell ya!

 

Josh Jacobs - Salvaged my early draft, getting me someone taken in the first.  I really didn't want to take an RB here, but the talent was too good to pass up at this position.  I wanted to take Darnell Savage, but thought that might be a reach without trading down, and Jacobs was too good a value for me here.  Turns out the Packers really liked Savage, though, since they traded up for him in the first.

 

Kahale Warring - I chose Warring over Jace Sternberger.  Packers took Sternberger here 😕.    I thought there was a possibility that others might not like him as much as I did, but he was drafted not too much later, so I think this qualifies as a pick that's about the right value.

Will Harris - I really liked the tape I saw on him.  Biggest knock on him was a lack of splash plays (INTs), but otherwise I really liked his tape and measurables.  I definitely liked him more than other Safeties that were taken earlier than him in our draft, and the NFL draft vindicated my analysis, I think, with him going 33 picks earlier.

 

Joe Jackson - To be honest, I wasn't fully sold on him.  The scouting reports looked good, but I didn't quite see it shine through in the tape  I'm not surprised he dropped a bit from my position.

 

Daylon Mack - I thought he might go a bit earlier, but overall decent value here.

 

Zedrick Woods - I felt pretty good about my draft up to this point.  Thought I filled all the holes that really needed filled.  I liked my pick of Will Harris at Safety, but I thought it couldn't hurt to have another depth guy at the position to develop, and his measurables are elite.  I'm completely unsurprised he went undrafted, but I figured I'd take a chance on him anyways because why not?  With his size and athleticism, might be a special teams candidate.

 

Easton Stick - Kid's an athlete and a winner.  Rodgers is starting to get old, though I doubt he'll retire before a development QB is ready to step in or step out, it doesn't hurt to keep looking for the next one who can also act as backup in the mean-time.  Haven't had a solid backup since Matt Flynn, so let's bring in another body to compete.  Love his athletic profile; reminds me of Taysome Hill, whom we let walk away for nothing because we were convinced Hundley was our man with the clipboard despite his struggles when called upon and Hill's pre-season success.  This was a prospect I figured could go anywhere from late 4th round to going undrafted entirely.  Going in the 5th 60 picks before I took him?  I'm okay with that result.

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2019 ES Mock Draft Results - Pittsburgh Steelers

 

#20 Devin Bush, Jr. - ILB - Michigan

#10 - PITTSBURGH STEELERS 

#32 Hakeem Butler - WR - Iowa State 

#103 - ARIZONA CARDINALS 

#83 Jace Sternberger - TE - Texas A&M 

#75 - GREEN BAY PACKERS 

#122 Jimmy Moreland - CB - JMU 

#227 - WASHINGTON REDSKINS 

#134 Marquise Blair - S - Utah 

#47 - SEATTLE SEAHAWKS 

#140 Drew Sample - TE - Washington 

#52 - CINCINNATI BENGALS 

#141 Dennis Daley - OT - South Carolina 

#212 - CAROLINA PANTHERS 

#175 Jordan Brown - CB - SDSU 

#223 - CINCINNATI BENGALS 

#243 Ashton Dulin - WR - Malone College 

UNDRAFTED 

#246 John Cominsky - DL - Charleston 

#135 - ATLANTA FALCONS 

#252 Devine Ozigbo - RB - Nebraska 

UNDRAFTED

 

Well, that certainly was a humbling experience. 

 

Super pumped the skins landed Jimmy. 

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I did Ok after I looked closer. Ferrell, Jenkins, Singletary and Tell III all went before I took them. Slayton went after but by just 6 picks so not an issue there. Hyatt went undrafted but the 250th pick not getting drafted is not a tragedy. I could have picked someone just for numbers here but I picked him because I thought he could help the team the most. 

 

My only real miss was my 3rd rd pick Gerald Willis III. I am not sure why he fell. There must have been something the teams found out that i did not know. Kiper had him listed as his best available from the end of the 4th rd on. Most mocks had him going in the late 2nd to early 4th. I felt real good taking him in the 3rd. But wow I missed it apparently. I will blame my commissioner duties for not allowing me the proper time to evaluate players when it came time - it's total bull**** but it's my story anyway...  🙂  

 

image.png.10e84a7e036f21d1b57664a30afdeb47.png

 

For the Falcons, Dballer and SIP did a nice job with their picks. I held them back making the team draft not so good. I will speak just to my picks: Kris Boyd is a get at the front of the 7th but it looks bad for me. I drafted him about 65 picks too soon. But he has a chance to make a major contribution. Udoh, I was just about on it - missing by only 8 spots. This late in the draft that's about a wash. Alexander went un-drafted but I do not stress over 7th rd picks not going un-drafted. 

 

It is interesting that the real Vikings took 2 of the players I drafted for the Falcons. I would not have drafted Boyd for the Vikings as they had other needs. But had I not taken Udoh for the Falcons and he was still there for the Vikings in the 7th I would have taken him over Hyatt. But I don't think he makes it that far in our draft. 

 

image.png.0effa65e2b09db08ade3bc0bbd805bf3.png

 

As always it was a blast. Thanks to everyone who participated. Look forward to doing this again next year! If I have some time I may fill in the teams and players for the entire draft. If I do I will post here.  

 

Last but not least I want to thank the mods for letting us do this on the board, especially @TK who pinned the thread. Thanks as always! 

 

Edited by goskins10
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I had some free time today so I analyzed our draft and calculated scores.

 

Disclaimer: The following scores of the 2019 ES Mock Draft are simply a comparison to the results of the actual NFL draft. It will take a few years to asses each player’s performance to see how well we really did. Some of our UDF players may be picked up to become stars and there’s a really good chance that some of the players we picked will bust.


Scoring was done a few ways:
1.    The difference between the Jimmy Johnson draft values of the actual draft position and the mock position. An undrafted player is given the Jimmy Johnson value of his mock draft position. The difference is divided by the number of picks.
2.    The difference between actual draft position and the mock position. An undrafted player was considered to be drafted at position 255. The difference is divided by the number of picks made.
3.    Bonuses are added to both of the above when a player in the mock is taken in the same position as the actual draft or if he is taken by the same team.
4.    Percentage of mock players actually drafted.
5.    The overall result is an average of each team’s place in the above categories.


There was quite a lot of data to sort through. It would be a miracle if I didn’t miss a player or two or make a mistake in the calculations. 
I count 60 players that the NFL drafted that we did not. If you’re missing a player on the attached spreadsheet, let me know via PM or with post in this thread so I can make the correction.


Now to the scores!


Difference of Jimmy Johnson Values / Number of Picks (The most meaningful method IMHO as it uses weighted values)
1.    Bucs        560.1
2.    Jaguars        300.9
3.    Bears        246.5
4.    Dolphins    141.9
5.    Vikings        138.6
6.    Bengals        134.2
7.    Cowboys    125.8
8.    Steelers        101.1
9.    Chargers    94.3
10.    Colts        56.7
11.    Rams        51.8
12.    Panthers    40
13.    Bills        26.2
14.    Lions        1.1
15.    Falcons        -13.2
16.    Texans        -19.6
17.    Seahawks    -20.8
18.    Saints        -34.3
19.    Browns        -37
20.    Patriots        -41.9
21.    Jets        -42.3
22.    Raiders        -50.2
23.    Titans        -53.2
24.    Eagles        -57.2
25.    Redskins    -65.2
26.    Chiefs        -68.7
27.    Ravens        -71.3
28.    Packers        -79.1
29.    Cardinals    -101.2
30.    Giants        -101.5
31.    Broncos    -116.1
32.    49ers        -280.5

 

Draft Position Difference / Number of Picks
1.    Bucs        105
2.    Jaguars        87
3.    Dolphins    63
4.    Bears        43
5.    Bills        25
6.    Seahawks    13
7.    Cowboys    12
8.    Rams        10
9.    Steelers        0
10.    Vikings        -2
11.    Raiders        -5
12.    Packers        -7
13.    Colts        -8
14.    Falcons        -12
15.    Bengals        -14
16.    Patriots        -15
17.    Panthers    -24
18.    Titans        -24
19.    Chargers    -25
20.    Jets        -25
21.    Lions        -29
22.    Giants        -35
23.    Saints        -35
24.    Cardinals    -36
25.    Chiefs        -38
26.    Broncos    -40
27.    Texans        -40
28.    Redskins    -46
29.    Browns        -48
30.    Eagles        -48
31.    Ravens        -60
32.    49ers        -62

 

Percent Drafted
1.    Bills         10/10    100%
2.    Jaguars        9/9    100%
3.    Bucs        8/8    100%
4.    Dolphins    8/8    100%
5.    Cowboys    6/6    100%
6.    Rams        6/6    100%
7.    Bears        2/2    100%
8.    Packers        9/10    90%
9.    Bengals        8/9    88.88%
10.    Patriots        8/9    88.88%
11.    Chiefs        7/8    87.5%
12.    Falcons        6/7    85.71%
13.    Steelers        9/11    81.81%
14.    Seahawks    4/5    80%
15.    Colts        7/9    77.77%
16.    Raiders        10/13    76.92%
17.    Broncos    6/8    75%
18.    Cardinals    6/8    75%
19.    Jets        6/8    75%
20.    Panthers    6/8    75%
21.    Vikings        5/7    71.42%
22.    49ers        4/6    66.66%
23.    Lions        4/6    66.66%
24.    Giants        7/11    63.63%
25.    Browns        4/7    57.14%
26.    Eagles        4/7    57.14%
27.    Texans        4/7    57.14%
28.    Ravens        5/9    55.55%
29.    Titans        4/8    50%
30.    Chargers    3/6    50%
31.    Saints        3/6    50%
32.    Redskins    4/9    44.44%

 

Overall: (Place in Each Category Averaged)
1.    Bucs        1.66
2.    Jaguars        2
3.    Dolphins    3.66
4.    Bears        4.66
5.    Bills        6.33
6.    Cowboys    6.33
7.    Rams        8.33
8.    Bengals        10
9.    Steelers        10
10.    Vikings        12
11.    Seahawks    12.33
12.    Colts        12.66
13.    Falcons        13.66
14.    Patriots        15.33
15.    Packers        16
16.    Panthers    16.33
17.    Raiders        16.33
18.    Chargers    19.33
19.    Lions        19.33
20.    Jets        20
21.    Chiefs        20.66
22.    Texans        23.33
23.    Titans        23.33
24.    Cardinals    23.66
25.    Saints        24
26.    Browns        24.33
27.    Broncos    24.66
28.    Giants        25.33
29.    Eagles        26.66
30.    Redskins    28.33
31.    49ers        28.66
32.    Ravens        28.66


The Spreadsheet is attached.

 

 

FinalResults.xlsx

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image.png.bc9d2dd7ad71d89105a28e0a215677ce.png

 

I'm not completely ashamed of my picks, so that's pretty swell. lol

 

Joseph was by far my worst pick vs. reality, but I stand by that selection anyway, as I have no choice. lmao

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On 4/29/2019 at 7:28 PM, skinfan57 said:

I had some free time today so I analyzed our draft and calculated scores.

 

Disclaimer: The following scores of the 2019 ES Mock Draft are simply a comparison to the results of the actual NFL draft. It will take a few years to asses each player’s performance to see how well we really did. Some of our UDF players may be picked up to become stars and there’s a really good chance that some of the players we picked will bust.


Scoring was done a few ways:
1.    The difference between the Jimmy Johnson draft values of the actual draft position and the mock position. An undrafted player is given the Jimmy Johnson value of his mock draft position. The difference is divided by the number of picks.
2.    The difference between actual draft position and the mock position. An undrafted player was considered to be drafted at position 255. The difference is divided by the number of picks made.
3.    Bonuses are added to both of the above when a player in the mock is taken in the same position as the actual draft or if he is taken by the same team.
4.    Percentage of mock players actually drafted.
5.    The overall result is an average of each team’s place in the above categories.


There was quite a lot of data to sort through. It would be a miracle if I didn’t miss a player or two or make a mistake in the calculations. 
I count 60 players that the NFL drafted that we did not. If you’re missing a player on the attached spreadsheet, let me know via PM or with post in this thread so I can make the correction.

 

Stupid Mack Wilson killed my score. 😠

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I wasn’t at all surprised to see Holyfield go undrafted (even though many had him as a 3rd rounder) considering his 40 time, but I was very surprised Dax Raymond and Morgan Stanley went undrafted.  

 

Winovich and Layne going in the 3rd were steals, IMO - I was sure they wouldn’t last that long.  Oh well.  

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I was surprised that Gerald Willis III went un-drafted but it turns out there was more off the field stuff that I was unaware of - like he was late to several meetings at the combine to go along with his fights with teammates that I did know about. 

 

If he can get his head straight though he is a hell of a talent. Will see what the Ravens can do with him. 

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On 4/9/2019 at 11:23 AM, volsmet said:

Jamel Dean should have been the #1 player overall, but I knew he’d fall to 112. 


We’d like to congratulate Jamel Dean on being selected to the pff All-rookie team, making him one of 3 Bills on the squad. Montez Sweat couldn’t quite beat out the Edge guys drafted ahead of him, but Dean & two OL give Buffalo a lot to be excited about. 

 

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-pff-2019-all-rookie-team

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9 hours ago, Chump Bailey said:

Fellow ES/GM Mocker's

 

Any interest this year in continuing the tradition? 

 

 


 

B4E5559A-D306-4102-AE28-CB941F9AFBE9.gif

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I would draft for the Texans again.  
 

With 5 total picks - no 1st, 3rd or 6th - they’re already projected to have the worst draft class, so what could go wrong? 😆

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4 hours ago, goskins10 said:

I am in. Anyone up for being commissioner? I did my turn last year.  

I really wish i could do it when i started this years ago but i dont have internet at my work desk anymore. 

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5 hours ago, goskins10 said:

I am in. Anyone up for being commissioner? I did my turn last year.  

Roger goskins10 gets my vote. You did a good job 

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Time for a seasonal retrospective:

1/12/12 (35) - OT Jawaan Taylor - Started all 16 games, voted to the PFWA All-rookie team.  Upgrading ranking from "reach" to "appropriate value"

1/30/30 (155) - LB Mack Wilson Started 14 games at LB and played through injuries.  Did not play like a first-round blue-chip.  Let's see how he does in year two to see if he was at least worthy of a 3rd round selection.  Pick ranking remains "way too early"

2/12/44 (24) - RB Josh Jacobs - Offensive rookie of the year.  1,150 rushing yards in 13 games.  Need I say more?  Upgraded from "Good value" to "nailed it!"

3/11/75 (86) - TE Kahale Warring - Grade incomplete: Spent entire regular season on Injured Reserve.

4/12/114 (81) - S Will Harris - Performed closer to what you'd expect where I got him than where he was taken.  Still, managed to get a lot of snaps without being one of the starting safeties.

4/16/118 (165) - DL Joe Jackson - Hasn't had much opportunity to play.  Hasn't looked bad, so he's got that going for him.

5/12/150 (160) - DL Daylon Mack - Grade incomplete: Injured Reserve.

6/12/185 (88) - LB Cody Barton - Got some decent playing time due to Kendricks' injuries.  Looked good and could be a starter next year.  Upgraded from "Good value" to "Great value".

6/21/194 (ud) - S Zedrick Woods - Retired.  Oof.  I guess there is a way for the value to drop in stock after going undrafted.
7/12/226/ (166) - QB Easton Stick - Incomplete grade, as expected of a later-round QB on a team with a real QB starter.  Beat out DC Defenders QB Cardale Jones for a roster spot with the Chargers.  Should be interesting to see what happens next year with all the speculation being that Rivers will not be returning.

 

Overall, pretty solid draft with two All-rookie team selections including the offensive rookie of the year.  Still a bit early to see what I got in some of these players with a couple of them going on IR (and Woods' retirement being injury-related, though not with what one would usually call a career-ending injury; maybe he'll get the bug to play again when he's healthy) and a couple others were buried on the depth chart including a developmental QB that was never going to see the field last year.

Edited by PokerPacker
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On 4/22/2019 at 6:22 PM, volsmet said:

If you don’t put Needham on your udfa list, you will live a life full of regret & sorrow. 

 

This is what I does 🧐

 

 

 

 

 

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On 4/9/2019 at 11:23 AM, volsmet said:

Jamel Dean should have been the #1 player overall, but I knew he’d fall to 112. 

 

 

 

On 4/9/2019 at 5:47 PM, goskins10 said:

 

 

 

Hmm... That's what we thought about you. :cheers: 

 

We may not have been that wrong - Jamel? really?   

 

 

 

 

 

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DE: Sweat (NFL.com top 25 rookies rank: 15)

OG: Risner pff & nfl.com all rookie teams

OT: Howard pff & nfl.com all rookie teams

CB: Dean pff all rookie team 

DE: Nelson IR

WR: Hurd IR

RB: Justice Hill Solid contributor 

DL: Kingsley KeKe Likely starter in 2020, nice rookie season

OL: Forbes IR

LB: Elliss IR


 

 

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