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Election 2020 The Non Presidential Edition


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46 minutes ago, dfitzo53 said:

For someone who wants to claim to have a finger on the pulse of the Midwest, it is.


Sorry. But I'm willing to bet that around 95% of the people in "the Midwest" have never started the engine in a tractor. 
 

I'd bet that Iowa has more WalMart employees than it has soybean farmers. 
 

Granted, I'm NOT an expert on Iowa. Just an opinion. But I'm pretty sure that it's not Green Acres. 

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3 hours ago, Larry said:


Sorry. But I'm willing to bet that around 95% of the people in "the Midwest" have never started the engine in a tractor. 
 

I'd bet that Iowa has more WalMart employees than it has soybean farmers. 
 

Granted, I'm NOT an expert on Iowa. Just an opinion. But I'm pretty sure that it's not Green Acres. 

Clearly not every Iowan is farmer, but I don't think that's the point. In my experience people in the Midwest are very sympathetic to farming interests. I would venture to bet that for a senator to be clueless about one of the state's major industries would've been problematic in most years.

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The importance of agriculture to Iowa’s total economy grew significantly between 2012 and 2017, according to a new study commissioned by the Coalition to Support Iowa’s Farmers (CSIF). Farming and ag-related industries accounted for more than 31% of the state’s total economic output in 2017 and for one in five jobs.

 

https://www.iowafarmbureau.com/Article/An-engine-for-Iowas-economy

Edited by PleaseBlitz
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Sorry guys, I don't really care about the needs of farmers. Its not out of hate or the fact that they're not important, farmers are just terrible at voting. They've had problems for years, begging for help, yet they turn down any help from anyone who isn't a republican. They would much rather vote for that white guy who makes a campaign ad with a truck and a gun, than anyone who would actually take the time to help them. Even now, as they lose their farms, lose their income and some their lives, they still don't want to let go of Trump. Why? Because he's not a liberal. Have fun picking out all of the seeds from the pile of bull**** he's been feeding you, it might be the only crops you'll be growing for a while.

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I see a lot about the Senate...has there been any insight into the state legislatures?  I know that has come up if we got to the point where the states were voting for the president...any idea whether the Dems will be able to control a majority there?

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2 hours ago, Forehead said:

I see a lot about the Senate...has there been any insight into the state legislatures?  I know that has come up if we got to the point where the states were voting for the president...any idea whether the Dems will be able to control a majority there?

 

 

 

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12 hours ago, Forehead said:

I see a lot about the Senate...has there been any insight into the state legislatures?  I know that has come up if we got to the point where the states were voting for the president...any idea whether the Dems will be able to control a majority there?

 

 

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11 minutes ago, Larry said:

Yeah, being able to flip a few gerrymandering committees state legislatures could really be important.  

 


Texas state legislature is probably the most important closely contested thing on the ballot after POTUS and Senate. Would be a HUGE pickup for Dems if they can pull it off. 

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4 minutes ago, skinsfan_1215 said:


Texas state legislature is probably the most important closely contested thing on the ballot after POTUS and Senate. Would be a HUGE pickup for Dems if they can pull it off. 

 

It would be a great fantasy.  

 

But while I could see the Dems just barely voting out Trump, statewide?  No way am I predicting them flipping enough Texas-gerrymandered state legislature seats to  prevent another 10 years of gerrymandering.  

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1 minute ago, Larry said:

 

It would be a great fantasy.  

 

But while I could see the Dems just barely voting out Trump, statewide?  No way am I predicting them flipping enough Texas-gerrymandered state legislature seats to  prevent another 10 years of gerrymandering.  


Cook has it as a tossup. I’m also a little confused by that... I figured with the gerrymandering in place, Dems would need to take the state by 5%+ to win the legislature. That was the case in Virginia for years until they finally broke through in 2017 (and the State Senate last year). 
 

But state legislative seats can be weird. Vacancies could impact the ratings of certain races, and demographics could have changed dramatically since the districts were drawn in 2011. We’ll see... 

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Just now, skinsfan_1215 said:


Cook has it as a tossup. I’m also a little confused by that... I figured with the gerrymandering in place, Dems would need to take the state by 5%+ to win the legislature. That was the case in Virginia for years until they finally broke through in 2017 (and the State Senate last year). 
 

But state legislative seats can be weird. Vacancies could impact the ratings of certain races, and demographics could have changed dramatically since the districts were drawn in 2011. We’ll see... 

 

The thing with gerrymandering is you draw the districts up so you are very likely to win them, but just barely.  You try to jam all of the opposing party's voters into a small number of districts (so their votes are largely wasted) and spread your own out over a large number of districts.  But when the math changes (like where the suburbs turn completely against you), the whole thing fails and you end up losing a lot of those districts you tried to draw to win by a smallish margin.  This is why, in 2018, Texas Dems picked up 12 seats even though they lost the popular vote by 5% statewide.  This year, if the popular vote is close to 50/50, it could be enough to flip it.  

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