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HH: Coach Speculation Publication: STs Kaczor; DBs Horton; TEs Angelichio; ILBs Rob Ryan; OC OConnell; QBs Rattay; Tomsula $$$


Malapropismic Depository

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I don't use advanced analytics but don't deny their importance, either. Anyway, what this guy says...does anyone know if this is true? He doesn't seem to consider the effects of monstrous injuries to the OLine, either, unless he's saying the declining performance was happening even when the OLine was 100% healthy:

 

 

Jason Perkins @jperkalator82

Replying to @JPFinlayNBCS

IF, big IF, the Redskins use advanced analytics to compare vs mean or rest of league, they would universally find the OL and DL are among the worst in the league in by all advanced measures - a trend with Callahan, Manusky, & Tomsula in the mix despite the heavy investments...

 

Jason Perkins @jperkalator82 Jan 6

...in coaches salaries, player salaries, and top picks. In fact, I’d argue, if the team opts not to #FireBruceAllen, Jay MUST replace Callahan, Manusky, and Tomsula. The OL has trended down in rank each year Callahan has been here. The DL was better under both Has & Barry.

 

Jason Perkins @jperkalator82 Jan 6

Skins have plenty of question marks at other position groups on both sides. That said, they need to do honest assessment and realize they’re heavily invest position groups are not performing.

 

 

********************

 

And by the way...this part here? "IF, big IF, the Redskins use advanced analytics to compare vs mean or rest of league..."

 

It's been reported in the past that Bruce Allen was a big advocate of using advanced analytics in the decision-making process, because the Skins weren't using them really at all. So if what this guy says is true, it may provide a little bit of insight into the decisions being made.

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I think there are guys who would want to come here - I would think Wilks might be a name in the frame given he has just been shafted by the Cards, he might want to resurrect some of his credentials working with a young defense - I think the biggest change has to be on the offense where Jay needs help as a play caller .. I think the thing to watch here is Lewis - Not that i think he will come to be the DC (that would be weird - though not out the question) but with him ousted in Bengals land - there may now be assistants who Jay knew who might be now suddenly more available ....

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3 hours ago, Califan007 said:

 

It's been reported in the past that Bruce Allen was a big advocate of using advanced analytics in the decision-making process, because the Skins weren't using them really at all. So if what this guy says is true, it may provide a little bit of insight into the decisions being made.

 

I know they start using a scouting service, cheaper way to get draft information about college players, where that service grades college players.  But as for Bruce using "a big advocate" for using advanced analytics for decision making where did you see that?  Curious on that one because there was an analytics specialist on the radio who talked about teams that use analytics from what he was told and they said the Redskins are one of the lightest teams in that front in doing so and the Eagles are the heaviest but all teams now use it to an extent.  

 

Not questioning your finding, just curious what that is?  Be curious because I love that stuff.   Warren Sharp who sort of an analytics cruncher talks in his book with numbers to match the teams that tend to be good at calling plays based on stat tendencies and analytics.  Redskins by his metrics are one of the worst on the front at playing the odds.  In other words, the play calling seems to mostly ignore analytics based on how they play out.  I detailed that weeks ago in a post.

 

As for Callahan, some guys who cover the team, Hoffman and Finley think he is wearing the O line down through overpractice-overuse. 

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14 hours ago, Malapropismic Depository said:

 

Interesting, some here in this thread are suggesting it's Gruden's choice to hire a DC, and some say the choice is above him.

 

I'm thinking it's his choice, since Barry and Manusky were on him.  Unless they say he's had enough chances.

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12 minutes ago, bedlamVR said:

I think there are guys who would want to come here - I would think Wilks might be a name in the frame given he has just been shafted by the Cards, he might want to resurrect some of his credentials working with a young defense - I think the biggest change has to be on the offense where Jay needs help as a play caller .. I think the thing to watch here is Lewis - Not that i think he will come to be the DC (that would be weird - though not out the question) but with him ousted in Bengals land - there may now be assistants who Jay knew who might be now suddenly more available ....

 

On offense, there is some thought that they might lose O'Connell if he isn't given the reigns.  According to some who cover the team, he's the hottest commodity for another team to pluck on this coaching staff.

 

Wilks could be a guy they take indeed.  But if they are intended to do a splash name he's not it.  Personally i don't care about whether they hire a splash name or for that matter if they even hire a new D coordinator.  But if a splash name is what they want as a bonus -- Bowles had some splash,  big name, ex-Redskin, Tampa being praised all over the media for the hire.  Gregg would be a splash hire, too.  But after him, nothing hits me.  Maybe am forgetting someone.

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3 hours ago, Califan007 said:

I don't use advanced analytics but don't deny their importance, either. Anyway, what this guy says...does anyone know if this is true? He doesn't seem to consider the effects of monstrous injuries to the OLine, either, unless he's saying the declining performance was happening even when the OLine was 100% healthy:

 

 

Jason Perkins @jperkalator82

Replying to @JPFinlayNBCS

IF, big IF, the Redskins use advanced analytics to compare vs mean or rest of league, they would universally find the OL and DL are among the worst in the league in by all advanced measures - a trend with Callahan, Manusky, & Tomsula in the mix despite the heavy investments...

 

Jason Perkins @jperkalator82 Jan 6

...in coaches salaries, player salaries, and top picks. In fact, I’d argue, if the team opts not to #FireBruceAllen, Jay MUST replace Callahan, Manusky, and Tomsula. The OL has trended down in rank each year Callahan has been here. The DL was better under both Has & Barry.

 

Jason Perkins @jperkalator82 Jan 6

Skins have plenty of question marks at other position groups on both sides. That said, they need to do honest assessment and realize they’re heavily invest position groups are not performing.

 

 

********************

 

And by the way...this part here? "IF, big IF, the Redskins use advanced analytics to compare vs mean or rest of league..."

 

It's been reported in the past that Bruce Allen was a big advocate of using advanced analytics in the decision-making process, because the Skins weren't using them really at all. So if what this guy says is true, it may provide a little bit of insight into the decisions being made.

 

I'd love to see the analytics that show that our DL is worse now than it has been... I don't buy that for a single second.

 

I could see the argument that our inside linebacker play has been so poor that has negatively impacted the run front and therefore makes the DL look worse. But to say our DL is worse than it has been is a poor metric and that metric should be launched into orbit with the next Mars shuttle.

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3 hours ago, Califan007 said:

I don't use advanced analytics but don't deny their importance, either. Anyway, what this guy says...does anyone know if this is true? He doesn't seem to consider the effects of monstrous injuries to the OLine, either, unless he's saying the declining performance was happening even when the OLine was 100% healthy:

 

 

Which was never.  Even when they're healthy, they're not.  Trent and/or Moses cant go 2 weeks without being comprised in some way.

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3 hours ago, Califan007 said:

 

You really think that one win was a difference-maker in any way, shape or form? lol...

 

didn't that additional win cost them drafting between 8-11 which is where all the other 6-10 teams are drafting.  I'll take moving up 5-9 spots any day of the week over a meaningless game late in a crap season.

 

I'm not saying I would intentionally tank but I was not happy about another meaningless win.

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4 hours ago, Califan007 said:

I don't use advanced analytics but don't deny their importance, either. Anyway, what this guy says...does anyone know if this is true? He doesn't seem to consider the effects of monstrous injuries to the OLine, either, unless he's saying the declining performance was happening even when the OLine was 100% healthy:

 

 

Jason Perkins @jperkalator82

 

Not sure how this guy popped up, but he is just a random twitter dude with 164 followers. PFF graded our three starters in the low-70's range, all technically above average. The oldest is Matt Ionnaidis at 24. Backups like Tim Settle were "average" in the 60s, despite being a 5th round rookie. Our DL is very exciting--it may be the only really exciting part of this team.

 

This guy is completely full of ****.

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1 hour ago, Ashburn Dave said:

 

didn't that additional win cost them drafting between 8-11 which is where all the other 6-10 teams are drafting.  I'll take moving up 5-9 spots any day of the week over a meaningless game late in a crap season.

 

I'm not saying I would intentionally tank but I was not happy about another meaningless win.

 

I meant a difference in whether or not Bruce and Jay stay or get canned.

 

 

7 minutes ago, Riggo#44 said:

 

Not sure how this guy popped up, but he is just a random twitter dude with 164 followers. PFF graded our three starters in the low-70's range, all technically above average. The oldest is Matt Ionnaidis at 24. Backups like Tim Settle were "average" in the 60s, despite being a 5th round rookie. Our DL is very exciting--it may be the only really exciting part of this team.

 

This guy is completely full of ****.

 

Does PFF determine their grades on advanced analytics?

 

 

1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I know they start using a scouting service, cheaper way to get draft information about college players, where that service grades college players.  But as for Bruce using "a big advocate" for using advanced analytics for decision making where did you see that?  Curious on that one because there was an analytics specialist on the radio who talked about teams that use analytics from what he was told and they said the Redskins are one of the lightest teams in that front in doing so and the Eagles are the heaviest but all teams now use it to an extent. 

 

 

Yeah, they started using a scouting service under Shanahan (his decision, I believe). I read about Bruce advocating the use of advanced analytics when reading an article about advanced analytics lol...I think they said the Skins were one of the teams that barely used them and that Allen was a proponent of their use. I'll have to figure out the correct google search term to find the article again lol....

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7 minutes ago, Califan007 said:

Does PFF determine their grades on advanced analytics?

 

I would assume so. I know their rankings can be contentious, but they're a decent baseline at the very least. I'll take their word over random twitter dude. Our DL is good and has a lot of room to grow.

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12 minutes ago, Riggo#44 said:

 

I would assume so. I know their rankings can be contentious, but they're a decent baseline at the very least. I'll take their word over random twitter dude. Our DL is good and has a lot of room to grow.

 

The thing about it is, all of us have access to the same advanced analytics that "random twitter dude" has lol...(or at least I assume we do, since there are a ton of sites that deal in that type of thing). So we can check out if he's right or not--I have so little interest in understanding advanced analytics that I will just ask others instead lol. If PFF's grades are based on film study (i know at least part of it is), that's harder to go check ourselves.

 

 

14 minutes ago, charles mannley said:

I feel like if he used advanced analytics; he wouldn't have drafted and signed so many injury prone players.  Am I missing something?  Is this to grade performance?

 

I'm not sure advanced analytics covers injuries. (does it?)

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13 minutes ago, Califan007 said:

The thing about it is, all of us have access to the same advanced analytics that "random twitter dude" has lol...(or at least I assume we do, since there are a ton of sites that deal in that type of thing). So we can check out if he's right or not--I have so little interest in understanding advanced analytics that I will just ask others instead lol. If PFF's grades are based on film study (i know at least part of it is), that's harder to go check ourselves.

 

His source is Football Outsiders--which is heavily analytical. They had our DL ranked 29th. Our DL did wear down in the 2nd half of the year--we were getting pretty much gashed on the ground by week 8. I don't doubt that has a lot to do with the offense starting street free agents at 6 of 11 starting positions (approx.) But there is also the likelihood that Atlanta found a weakness and we never adjusted. Weren't there players griping about changing something that worked during our slide? I'd say it's scheme rather than talent--we were shutting people down early in the year.

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Listening to different people today.  Seems like the plan is to interview people, seeing if they'd take the job before dumping who is in house. 

 

Hoffman among others say they might feel burned from previous previous attempts to get their top prospects including Bradley last time they did this. 

 

Seems like part of the vibe that they don't like the image of being rejected considering all the other noise around the team (this part is my own thought to how all this is being explained)

 

I don't care for Jason Reid but find it funny he's goofing on this. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, KDawg said:

 

I'd love to see the analytics that show that our DL is worse now than it has been... I don't buy that for a single second.

 

I could see the argument that our inside linebacker play has been so poor that has negatively impacted the run front and therefore makes the DL look worse. But to say our DL is worse than it has been is a poor metric and that metric should be launched into orbit with the next Mars shuttle.

Yeah, I’m with you that this is bogus.  We got 41.5 sacks out of our dline (including OLBs) and that’s with Preston having a down year.  League average was 39 sacks for the whole team.  KC (as a team) had the highest sack total for the NFL with 52.  

 

Of course our run game was an issue.  You could argue our OLBs could have set the edge better, but as you say, our ILBs (and corners/safeties to an extent) were the big let down in run D.  

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2 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Listening to different people today.  Seems like the plan is to interview people, seeing if they'd take the job before dumping who is in house. 

 

Hoffman among others say they might feel burned from previous previous attempts to get their top prospects including Bradley last time they did this. 

 

Seems like part of the vibe that they don't like the image of being rejected considering all the other noise around the team (this part is my own thought to how all this is being explained)

 

This is awesome for the team's reputation.

 

You have coaches on staff... who know you're interviewing other people for their jobs... who are expected to continue moving forward.

 

Fantastic for morale. :ols:

 

🤡

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5 hours ago, Califan007 said:

So if what this guy says is true, it may provide a little bit of insight into the decisions being made

What decisions though?

We've Fired a defensive backs coach and left everybody else (including the fans) twisting in the wind.

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10 minutes ago, KDawg said:

 

This is awesome for the team's reputation.

 

You have coaches on staff... who know you're interviewing other people for their jobs... who are expected to continue moving forward.

 

Fantastic for morale. :ols:

 

🤡

 

Yeah the craziest part of it for me is it sounds like Torain isn't even gone yet.  I was half listening to Hoffman on the radio this morning and I thought he said that but wasn't sure.  But now Keim confirming that no one was fired yet. 

 

A. So you got a national reporter saying he heard Torain's gone. 

B. They are interviewing his replacement -- confirmed by a Denver reporter who knows said coach. 

C. You got a reporter saying Manusky wants some changes being done with the assistants -- with reporters talking about Manusky's beef with Torrain. 

D. You got players telling reporters implying that Pleasant who was slated to take Torain's job would have been better. 

E. In the same narrative you got that Jay and the FO are undecided whether Manusky stays or goes

F. We got narratives that Tomsula might want to go and is tired of the craziness around the team

G. In the mix of reporting it was revealed Manusky wants to replace Kirk Olivadiotti 

H.  They interview Todd Bowles but supposedly didn't make him an offer and were just checking things out

I.  Both a local guy and a national guy say they were hot for Bowles and tried to land him.

J.  With a running narrative that they were rejected by other candidates before and are perhaps trying to work around that this time

 

What do they have cooking next?  

 

 

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Torian gut the shaft because he's not part of that Trampa Bay Trash Club. 

 

The next guy probably served on the Bucs staff in 2006 and plays good racquetball or something.

 

Because it's not about experience or ability, its about who you're friends with. 

 

 

 

 

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19 minutes ago, Riggo#44 said:

 

 

His source is Football Outsiders--which is heavily analytical. They had our DL ranked 29th. Our DL did wear down in the 2nd half of the year--we were getting pretty much gashed on the ground by week 8. I don't doubt that has a lot to do with the offense starting street free agents at 6 of 11 starting positions (approx.) But there is also the likelihood that Atlanta found a weakness and we never adjusted. Weren't there players griping about changing something that worked during our slide? I'd say it's scheme rather than talent--we were shutting people down early in the year.

 

So a little deeper dive into that data - the 29th ranking is for run defense - and it's for the entire front 7 not just the Dline - so it's really the entire defensive front. You have to watch Football Outsiders. They kind of make some **** up along the way. 

 

Some more analysis - 

29th is the adjusted line yards - they take the actual RB yds, then make adjustments based on down, distance, field position, score and game situation. Here is the problem with that - much of that is subjective, at least subjective enough to sway results one way or the other. Consider this, the entire range from #1 to #32 in adjusted line yards is 3.56 to 5.28. We were 4.97 and they make their adjustments. For RB yards before their adjustment we were 4.57 good for 20th. Certainly not great y any means, but not 29th either. 

 

Here are some of the other individual numbers:

 

28th in power success (opponents success on 2nd or 3rd with 2 or less yds) 

26th in Stuff % (# of times - not yds but times a RB was stuffed behind the LOS)

26th in 2nd Level (yds gained between 5 and 10 yds past the LOS)

But 11th in open field yds - a bad title as these are yds gained more than 10yds past the LOS. This says the secondary did better than we thought. 

 

Also, here is the real issue - The Dline was 11th in pass rush and tied for 7th best win sacks with 46. 

 

So someone just spouting the Redskins Dline was 29th, does not tell the real story. They were poor against the run - we know that, but they didn't give up many big plays and were pretty good against the pass. 

 

They should really have a combined ranking as it's kind of misleading they way they display the data. 

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6 hours ago, Califan007 said:

 

You really think that one win was a difference-maker in any way, shape or form? lol...

 

Well, depending on tie breakers we'd be picking between 8-12 instead of 15. That's an immediate, tangible difference.

 

And yes I've maintained that without a meaningless win in the middle of that second half skid, which gave some hope that the players hadn't completely quit (that week), it would be much more likely we couldn't justify bringing Gruden back, and I don't think Allen gets another HC pick. I think it's very possible that one win ended up delaying lots of changes. 

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