Starting QB 2019???

[evmiii]

I wonder if Greer could last until our round 2 pick?  If there is not a hyped up QB rush in round 1, we could move up a few spots in round 2 to get ahead of QB needy teams without it costing us too much.  I think he's the guy.  Could still take a stud cornerback, WR, or OL with #15.

[RWJ]

Just now, evmiii said:

I wonder if Greer could last until our round 2 pick?  If there is not a hyped up QB rush in round 1, we could move up a few spots in round 2 to get ahead of QB needy teams without it costing us too much.  I think he's the guy.  Could still take a stud cornerback, WR, or OL with #15.

I think he could last until possibly the 3rd but he will definitely be there with our 2nd round pick if we choose to not select a QB in the 1st round.  I think though that we will select our franchise QB in the 1st round.  Stranger things have happened though so we go to stay tuned.

[Est.1974]

21 hours ago, Burgold said:

Our Number One plus Josh Norman and Jordan Reed. We get their Number one and three picks.

 

Including Norman and Reed in a trade is a really good idea in my opinion. Not that I like the idea of moving up to #3 that much, but I'd sooner give those players up that a boats load of draft picks. 

 

However, we do seem in complete win now mentally, so to be honest it's hard to make much sense of what could happen in the next 5 weeks.

 

I would have expectedly us to be more aggressive in FA if the plan was then to surrender so many picks to trade up. Might as well have just gone the extra mile on Crowder, Mosley etc. in that case.

[mistertim]

1 hour ago, HigSkin said:

Anybody watching D. Lock's pro day on NFLN?  He looks no where near as sharp as I thought he would without pressure.  

 

I'll be curious to see what other experts say....

 

Bucky and DJ were on the "he's a real development guy with a great arm and ability to move around" narrative - needs to sit and learn at least a year.  Said he isn't a guy you expect to start day 1.

 

And this after they said the kid needs a year on the bench....LOL

 

 

I said it a while back and I still say it now...I'd take Grier before Lock. IMO the only real thing that stands out about Lock is his arm talent. He also had a great OL that often gave him tons of time to throw. I think Lock is and always has been a developmental guy with plenty of upside but definitely not a QB who you could plug in as a rookie and go. After watching his cutups I think the NFL game and NFL pass rushing pressure would smother him if he were thrown to the wolves.

 

[WelshSkinsFan]

Cannot believe Grier is being talked about as a possible 1st rounder.  Nothing in his game tape says he is worth that grade and he was poor at both the Senior Bowl and the Combine.  I have to think a lot of the buzz is coming from people with ties to his agent.  I wouldn't consider him before the 4th round and I think even then his ceiling is Jimmy Clausen.  I don't want any part of the QB's in this draft and definitely not the 6th best.

[Est.1974]

3 months ago this draft class at QB 'sucked'. Now all of a sudden its a full on feeding frenzy across the league.

[mistertim]

33 minutes ago, WelshSkinsFan said:

Cannot believe Grier is being talked about as a possible 1st rounder.  Nothing in his game tape says he is worth that grade and he was poor at both the Senior Bowl and the Combine.  I have to think a lot of the buzz is coming from people with ties to his agent.  I wouldn't consider him before the 4th round and I think even then his ceiling is Jimmy Clausen.  I don't want any part of the QB's in this draft and definitely not the 6th best.

 

So is it just pure luck that in the large majority of metric charts that have been posted here (multiple infographics over the past couple months detailing multiple metrics) Grier is 2nd behind Murray? And you can't really say it's the system as Murray and Grier both played under coaches who came from the exact same Air Raid offensive tree and coach. I'm not saying that stats are everything obviously, but it's a consistent trend so it has to mean something. 

 

As far as this class, I do still think it's pretty weak at QB. All of the top guys in most mocks (Murray, Haskins, Lock) are IMO boom or bust and have pretty serious question marks. 2020 is likely to be far better.

[Skin'emAlive]

Ceiling is Jimmy Clausen!? 

 

Insubordinate. And churlish.

[WelshSkinsFan]

You are right.  Apologies to Jimmy Clausen 🤣

[Morrissey1972]

10 hours ago, MartinC said:

 

I've seen this theory posted before. I don't agree.

 

If the Cardinals love and want Murray they will take him, if they don't (or decide they have other needs that are more important) they won't. How does that drive up the value of the pick? The only value the pick has is if the are clear they DONT want him and teams who do then feel the need to trade up past another team who might jump to pick 2 or 3 to get him.

 

 

On the surface, it’s only a matter of simple draft value. If another team wants Murray, it’s going to cost them more to move into the #1 spot rather than the #3 or #5 spot. 

 

...that price only increases if the Cards make the impression that Murray is on their radar as well. 

 

These two scenarios are exactly why the Cards won’t trade Rosen prior to draft day. Moreover, if the Cards were dead set on taking Murray, they’d be crazy to not trade Rosen pre-draft. I mean, why delay that trade and risk potential suitors going in a different direction for QB? 

 

In fact with every passing day that the Cards don’t trade Rosen, I become less convinced that they have any Murray plans. 

[Renegade7]

6 hours ago, UK SKINS FAN '74 said:

3 months ago this draft class at QB 'sucked'. Now all of a sudden its a full on feeding frenzy across the league.

 

Desperation does that.

[RandyHolt]

7 hours ago, UK SKINS FAN '74 said:

3 months ago this draft class at QB 'sucked'. Now all of a sudden its a full on feeding frenzy across the league.

 

The ironic part? It seems like it was kicked off by Rosen being available in a trade... but then those rumors started to include, that he could possibly be had for a 3rd. Which I called bunk on. 

 

The annual QB frenzy is on.

[MartinC]

1 hour ago, Morrissey1972 said:

On the surface, it’s only a matter of simple draft value. If another team wants Murray

 

If the Cardinals want Murray it doesn’t matter what any other team want or offer. They will take him. 

 

And to take any player number 1 overall you’ve got to want him - especially if you traded up last year to take a player in the same position.

 

If don’t want him then I don’t see how showing interest helps them. Or the QB they took last year.

 

Reality might well be they haven’t decided either way yet.

[nonniey]

11 hours ago, evmiii said:

I wonder if Greer could last until our round 2 pick?  If there is not a hyped up QB rush in round 1, we could move up a few spots in round 2 to get ahead of QB needy teams without it costing us too much.  I think he's the guy.  Could still take a stud cornerback, WR, or OL with #15.

He should last to round three at least.

[Koala]

On 3/20/2019 at 1:29 PM, mistertim said:

 

I know this was addressed to SIP, but I think that if we wanted to do the trade before the draft we'd have to get to #2 for Haskins unless we really wanted to bank on nobody else moving up to #1 or #2 and taking him. If we traded up to #3 there would be a chance of us getting leapfrogged by someone else. Might be a slim chance, but still possible. Then we'd be sitting with the #3 pick and no QB to take. That would be an epic fail.

 

That trade up would probably be super expensive. In 2012 we went from #6 to #2 and it cost us a 2013 and 2014 1st and a 2012 2nd. IMO Haskins is definitely not worth it. He's a good prospect in a weak QB class. He'd probably be a 2nd rounder in a strong class. 

Nobody believes that Haskins is a 2nd rounder in any class. When deciding whether our not to come out this year or next, he was almost swayed to stay for one more year because people felt he'd have a good chance to be the #1 pick in 2020, and  would be taken ahead of Tua. The only real knock on him is that he hasn't taken many snaps under center.  Since Ryan Day is staying on to be the head coach, that wasn't gonna change if he stayed one more year, meaning there was no real value to staying one more to learn more in college.

[skinny21]

6 hours ago, nonniey said:

He should last to round three at least.

I had started to believe the same, but a couple things have come up more recently that make me question this.  

1) his pro day performance 

2) the reports that the NFL types are higher on him than the draft community.  

 

I tend to believe you’re right though because:

Qb needy teams are probably more likely to either take a top guy, or focus on adding impact players (2nd round looks pretty rich with talent) and wait until next year for their (chance at a) franchise guy.  

Teams that need a replacement in the near future (LAC, NE, NO, etc) are probably more likely to add talent that can give them a chance at 1 more run at a Title.  

[Skinsinparadise]

1 hour ago, skinny21 said:

I had started to believe the same, but a couple things have come up more recently that make me question this.  

1) his pro day performance 

2) the reports that the NFL types are higher on him than the draft community.   

 

Grier has to be the oddest qb evaluation just going through reports that I can recall.

 

If you look at studies and stats most of which I posted in the draft thread, Grier has the makings of a star let alone just a starting Qb in the NFL.

 

Most draft geeks seems to dislike him and think he will be a bust. One NFL reporter said that there is a major difference between what NFL teams think of him (more do like him) versus mock drafter types. 

 

He is the one Qb that I like (though see him as boom or bust) that I feel like I have to apologize for that to some 😀 because the ones who dont like him tend to be vehement about it.

 

But am cool drafting Grier. And I suspect you might have to use a 2nd rounder judging by some reports. If I judged him by the numerous mock drafters that dont like Grier, you'd think we can get the dude in the 6th round. 

 

For me it doesnt have to be Grier after the first round. I also like Finlay and to a lesser extent Rypien. I am ok with Stidham if he is in the 3rd or 4th but dont like him as much.

 

Edit: I know am preaching to the choir considering you being stronger pro Grier than me.  My thought is if Jay is taking Grier out to dinner, Redskins are at least intrigued by the dude.

[Jericho]

18 hours ago, UK SKINS FAN '74 said:

3 months ago this draft class at QB 'sucked'. Now all of a sudden its a full on feeding frenzy across the league.

 

Pretty much this. A "normal" draft class would produce one NFL starter. Now that starter might be no better than an Alex Smith level talent, which is hardly super exciting. All of a sudden people are acting like there are 4-5 legit first rounders. That's not the case. It's all hype and reality should set in sometime in late April. I hope.

[mistertim]

6 hours ago, Koala said:

Nobody believes that Haskins is a 2nd rounder in any class. When deciding whether our not to come out this year or next, he was almost swayed to stay for one more year because people felt he'd have a good chance to be the #1 pick in 2020, and  would be taken ahead of Tua. The only real knock on him is that he hasn't taken many snaps under center.  Since Ryan Day is staying on to be the head coach, that wasn't gonna change if he stayed one more year, meaning there was no real value to staying one more to learn more in college.

 

I think in a strong QB class he would be pushed down a decent amount. Maybe not all the way to the 2nd but IMO his flaws would be more amplified when compared to more complete prospects. I certainly don't think he'd be a top 10 pick in a strong class.

[mistertim]

48 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Grier has to be the oddest qb evaluation just going through reports that I can recall.

 

If you look at studies and stats most of which I posted in the draft thread, Grier has the makings of a star let alone just a starting Qb in the NFL.

 

Most draft geeks seems to dislike him and think he will be a bust. One NFL reporter said that there is a major difference between what NFL teams think of him (more do like him) versus mock drafter types. 

 

He is the one Qb that I like (though see him as boom or bust) that I feel like I have to apologize for that to some 😀 because the ones who dont like him tend to be vehement about it.

 

But am cool drafting Grier. And I suspect you might have to use a 2nd rounder judging by some reports. If I judged him by the numerous mock drafters that dont like Grier, you'd think we can get the dude in the 6th round. 

 

For me it doesnt have to be Grier after the first round. I also like Finlay and to a lesser extent Rypien. I am ok with Stidham if he is in the 3rd or 4th but dont like him as much.

 

Edit: I know am preaching to the choir considering you being stronger pro Grier than me.  My thought is if Jay is taking Grier out to dinner, Redskins are at least intrigued by the dude.

 

One of the things that makes me feel a bit dubious about some draftniks' evaluations of Grier is that they seem to go out of their way at times to pull out stuff selectively to ding him on when other prospects in the same class should then have the same negatives. I've seen people point out his size...but he's 6'2 1/2 and 218 lbs so that seems really odd, especially when you have a QB who's 5'10 possibly going 1st overall. I've seen people point out him playing in an Air Raid system...uh, Murray plays in the exact same style of system; their coaches actually were taught by the exact same Air Raid guru. I'm not saying that's an invalid criticism, I'm just saying that it should be applied across the board.

 

Then there's some stuff that doesn't seem to fit with his numbers. Weak arm...well, he was one of the most accurate deep ball passers in the nation and had a really high YPA with mediocre receivers. PFF also rated him the #1 QB at throwing go routes. Bad against pressure is another...but PFF also rated him as the #1 QB against a blitz. It just doesn't add up.

 

There certainly are things that concern me about Grier...he's a bit of a gunslinger so his decision making can be bad when he tries to make plays and ends up making dumb decisions (red zone INTs for example), his mechanics are generally ok but they're too variable so he needs to work on being more consistent there. And while he does go through progressions, the Air Raid thing is a legit concern...how well will he be able to acclimate to a more pro style system?

 

All in all I think he'd be a really good value in the 2nd and a steal in the 3rd but I don't see him falling that far. 

[skinny21]

@Skinsinparadise I agree, there are other qbs I’m interested in past round 1.  I’d add Ta’Amu to your list.  

 

Still think Grier’s accuracy trumps everyone else in that category.  

 

 

I was checking out Burr-Kirven’s scouting report on Draft Network (for curiosity’s sake), and they questioned his athleticism - his worst trait, they felt - and size.  He came in 8 pounds heavier (4 lbs less than Bush, 7 less than White), put up solid numbers in the 40 and broad/vertical jumps, and had the fastest 3 cone amongst the backers.  21 reps on the bench too (equaled Bush, 1 less than White, 1 more than Vander Esch last year).  I had him pegged late 3rd-5th, but the more I look into him, I’m wondering if he goes sooner. 

[WelshSkinsFan]

The biggest knock I have seen on Grier so far is the stuff from the Senior Bowl.  I won't link every article here, if you google Will Grier Senior Bowl you can take your pick of multiple negative assessments.  The summary though seemed to be that he lacked accuracy, panicked and made poor decisions when faced with pressure and seemed to have great difficulty learning new plays.  His game performance was wretched and speaks for itself.  

 

I realize it is just one week and maybe he got tight because of the pressure of the situation and knowing what was at stake but I just find it concerning that there was nothing positive written about him the whole week.   

 

 

[DJHJR86]

1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Grier has to be the oddest qb evaluation just going through reports that I can recall.

 

If you look at studies and stats most of which I posted in the draft thread, Grier has the makings of a star let alone just a starting Qb in the NFL.

 

Agreed.

 

As a Grier fan it's frustrating.  I don't understand where the "4th round at best" takes are coming from.  He's a project for sure, but I think most of the QBs in this draft class are.  

1 minute ago, WelshSkinsFan said:

he summary though seemed to be that he lacked accuracy, panicked and made poor decisions when faced with pressure and seemed to have great difficulty learning new plays. 

 

This is the opposite of his knocks in college.  His biggest knock at WVU was taking too many sacks and holding the ball too long.  I've never heard anything other than how much of a "playbook junkie" he is.  

[WelshSkinsFan]

This analysis covers a lot of the issues and I am not claiming it is gospel but it definitely gives me pause.  The comments at the end reference the scheme issues and his performance on the field would seem to suggest the concerns were justified.  I freely admit he could be Tom Brady all over again, I am not a pro scout just a fan, but I would hate to give up anything above a 3rd round pick for a guy with so many obvious red flags.

 

https://www.nfl.com/prospects/will-grier?id=32194752-4902-2415-512e-3cae73b00f0f

[Jericho]

7 minutes ago, DJHJR86 said:

 

Agreed.

 

As a Grier fan it's frustrating.  I don't understand where the "4th round at best" takes are coming from.  He's a project for sure, but I think most of the QBs in this draft class are.  

 

I think it's just ranking and numbers. For example, CBS has him ranked as the 96th best prospect (https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/prospect-rankings/). That's barely inside the 3rd round in the compensatory selections if every prospect went in order. McShay has him at 82, which is more solidly a 3rd rounder. Those are just two rankings and hardly definitive of anything. Of course players don't go in exact "ranking" order. For example, McShay had Kirk Cousins ranked 57th in 2012 and we all know he ended up being a 4th rounder for the Redskins. 

 

Most have Grier ranked no better than 5th among QBs. Some may like him better, but most have him behind Murray, Haskins, Lock, and Jones. You can look at QB draft history and most years the 5th QB selected ends up in the 3rd or 4th round. 2018 was a huge anomaly. In 2017 the 5th QB taken was Davis Webb in the late third round, in 2016 it was Jacoby Brissett in the late third round, in 2015 it was Bryce Petty in the early 4th, in 2014 it was Jimmy Garoppolo in the late second, in 2013 it was Ryan Nassib in the early 4th, and in 2012 it was Brock Osweiler in the late second. There's some variance from year to year, but odds are that Grier's ceiling is the third round unless some team just falls in love with him.