Starting QB 2019???

[Morneblade]

1 minute ago, bird_1972 said:

 

If that's the case, probably best to cut him

 

Thing is, we can't cut him until he is healed up. That likely won't be for a year, give or take how the healing process goes on a 35 year old man, that will bust his ass to recover. It will kill our cap for a year. But it might be the best for everyone.

[Bigmuss1]

I jumped into this convo late about Alex, but.......my question is, what if HE decides to retire?  What happens financially to the Skins?  

 

 

[bird_1972]

10 minutes ago, Morneblade said:

 

Thing is, we can't cut him until he is healed up. That likely won't be for a year, give or take how the healing process goes on a 35 year old man, that will bust his ass to recover. It will kill our cap for a year. But it might be the best for everyone.

 

Not 100% sure what your point is here - are you saying that it's best for everyone if he busts his ass and makes it back onto the field or if he retires after attempting to do so given the unlikelihood he recovers as a 35 year old? 

[OVCChairman]

36 minutes ago, bird_1972 said:

 

Not 100% sure what your point is here - are you saying that it's best for everyone if he busts his ass and makes it back onto the field or if he retires after attempting to do so given the unlikelihood he recovers as a 35 year old? 

 

 

If I'm reading that right, he's saying the best thing for everyone is to have Alex on the roster through 2020 with the hopes that he returns to a level of playing form some time in the next 12 months.. allowing him to be "100%" by the time we break camp in 2020 and see if he can contribute. 

 

Point being... We can't cut him til he's healed enough to pass a physical.  He won't be healed enough to pass a physical til AFTER the 5th day of the new league year (March 19) so we're going to have to pay Alex for next year, as well as for 2020 regardless of what we do.  

[bird_1972]

1 minute ago, OVCChairman said:

If I'm reading that right, he's saying the best thing for everyone is to have Alex on the roster through 2020 with the hopes that he returns to a level of playing form some time in the next 12 months.. allowing him to be "100%" by the time we break camp in 2020 and see if he can contribute. 

 

Point being... We can't cut him til he's healed enough to pass a physical.  He won't be healed enough to pass a physical til AFTER the 5th day of the new league year (March 19) so we're going to have to pay Alex for next year, as well as for 2020 regardless of what we do.  

 

What if he never passes a physical?

[OVCChairman]

5 minutes ago, bird_1972 said:

 

What if he never passes a physical?

 

 

that was the 'hopes that he returns to a level of playing'

 

His contract for the guarantee of 2020 is regardless.  If he never passes a physical, we're paying him anyway.  It would be on him and when he wants to make the decision to retire.  I guess I'm staring down the barrel of a $16 mil check, i'm gonna give it every go I've got.  He'll likely be just getting back to normal football activities this time next season, so I don't think he'll truly know when 'never passes a physical' becomes an option til well into the 2019 offseason.  At that point, I guess he could chose to retire prior to us breaking camp, but it's a stretch to think he'd be willing to forgo some of that money.  Maybe the $16.2 mil in signing bonus money for the final 3 seasons, but that's a stretch.... imho.  

[bird_1972]

13 minutes ago, OVCChairman said:

 

 

that was the 'hopes that he returns to a level of playing'

 

His contract for the guarantee of 2020 is regardless.  If he never passes a physical, we're paying him anyway.  It would be on him and when he wants to make the decision to retire.  I guess I'm staring down the barrel of a $16 mil check, i'm gonna give it every go I've got.  He'll likely be just getting back to normal football activities this time next season, so I don't think he'll truly know when 'never passes a physical' becomes an option til well into the 2019 offseason.  At that point, I guess he could chose to retire prior to us breaking camp, but it's a stretch to think he'd be willing to forgo some of that money.  Maybe the $16.2 mil in signing bonus money for the final 3 seasons, but that's a stretch.... imho.  

 

This front office is so monumentally stupid

[justice98]

Man, this thread is depressing.  Because you realize how screwed we really are.  

 

1. If he comes back, you still have Alex Smith, who wasnt lighting it up without a broken leg to worry about.

 

2. If he doesnt come back, you're starting over from scratch at the QB position.  What are the cap ramifications?

 

3. They will be just good enough to not be able to get one of the top guys in the draft, most likely.  Unless we're trusting Bruce and Gruden to nail picking a QB others passed on.

 

4.  There arent any good options in free agency or that might be realistically available in trade.

 

5. They have no in-house option or anybody bring groomed already. 

[OVCChairman]

4 minutes ago, bird_1972 said:

 

This front office is so monumentally stupid

 

 

I actually defended the move prior to the injury because of the fact that if he was healthy, we could have released him after next season and been out minimally regarding a cap hit.  The catastrophic injury is about the closest thing to scorched earth as you can come across.  He's generally been a healthy QB in his career, missing extended time early on, but as of late does not appear to be an oft-injured player.  This was a freak accident that in August nobody could have seen coming.  It wasn't a situation like Griff where he had previously blown a knee up and we still picked up his option with injury guarantee.  

[OVCChairman]

1 minute ago, justice98 said:

Man, this thread is depressing.  Because you realize how screwed we really are.  

 

1. If he comes back, you still have Alex Smith, who wasnt lighting it up without a broken leg to worry about.

 

2. If he doesnt come back, you're starting over from scratch at the QB position.  What are the cap ramifications?

 

3. They will be just good enough to not be able to get one of the top guys in the draft, most likely.  Unless we're trusting Bruce and Gruden to nail picking a QB others lasted on.

 

4.  There arent any good options in free agency or that might be realistically available in trade.

 

5. They have no in-house option or anybody bring groomed already. 

 

 

Which is more of a reason to start things over and move on from Bruce and Jay.  If you're going to consider moving on from Bruce, let the new GM pick his coach... and let that coach be a part of the process picking his QB.  Alex is under contract through 2020 unless something crazy happens so your new Coach and GM aren't under the pressure of finding their guy tomorrow.  If there is another guy they like better in April of 2020, they can stand to have a bit of patience.  If the right guy is there in 19, you can take him and nobody will knock them knowing that Alex is not guaranteed.  The WORST thing we could do right now is to remove Bruce or Jay this offseason, only to hold onto the other til after 2019 / 2020, to let go of them THEN, and we've then had 2 wasted seasons with no direction... paying Alex to ride off into the sunset.  Then possibly handing a young, top picked QB over to a new GM / HC and forcing them to make it work. 

[bird_1972]

8 minutes ago, OVCChairman said:

 

 

Which is more of a reason to start things over and move on from Bruce and Jay.  If you're going to consider moving on from Bruce, let the new GM pick his coach... and let that coach be a part of the process picking his QB.  Alex is under contract through 2020 unless something crazy happens so your new Coach and GM aren't under the pressure of finding their guy tomorrow.  If there is another guy they like better in April of 2020, they can stand to have a bit of patience.  If the right guy is there in 19, you can take him and nobody will knock them knowing that Alex is not guaranteed.  The WORST thing we could do right now is to remove Bruce or Jay this offseason, only to hold onto the other til after 2019 / 2020, to let go of them THEN, and we've then had 2 wasted seasons with no direction... paying Alex to ride off into the sunset.  Then possibly handing a young, top picked QB over to a new GM / HC and forcing them to make it work. 

 

But .... this makes too much sense for Dan Snyder to consider. He obviously lacks the intelligence and/or self awareness to realize that what he's being doing in terms of FO and coaching leadership isn't working. Unless the revelation that he isn't able to sell tickets and a dwindling fan base is enough to provide the cold, hard slap of reality to the face he needs to at least change course.

[justice98]

8 minutes ago, OVCChairman said:

 

 

Which is more of a reason to start things over and move on from Bruce and Jay.  If you're going to consider moving on from Bruce, let the new GM pick his coach... and let that coach be a part of the process picking his QB.  Alex is under contract through 2020 unless something crazy happens so your new Coach and GM aren't under the pressure of finding their guy tomorrow.  If there is another guy they like better in April of 2020, they can stand to have a bit of patience.  If the right guy is there in 19, you can take him and nobody will knock them knowing that Alex is not guaranteed.  The WORST thing we could do right now is to remove Bruce or Jay this offseason, only to hold onto the other til after 2019 / 2020, to let go of them THEN, and we've then had 2 wasted seasons with no direction... paying Alex to ride off into the sunset.  Then possibly handing a young, top picked QB over to a new GM / HC and forcing them to make it work. 

 

As long as we dont have a repeat of the early Shanahan days, when they tried to roll with an old vet, that didn't work out, then they just went into the following year with what they had.  The role of Rex Grossman now being played by Colt McCoy. 

[OVCChairman]

1 minute ago, justice98 said:

 

As long as we dont have a repeat of the early Shanahan days, when they tried to roll with an old vet, that didn't work out, then they just went into the following year with what they had.  The role of Rex Grossman now being played by Colt McCoy. 

 

 

And it would be even worse if we did when Shanny left and handed the mortgage QB Griffin over to Gruden who had absolutely zero responsibility or say in how that all went down.  I fear that if we go down that road again, we're going to find ourselves trying to change a scheme to a QB or a QB to a scheme.  We still haven't married the two up well enough for my liking.  In fact, Alex was the first true WCO type QB we've had who can work from within the pocket as well as outside, and we converted to a power run mentality.  

[Unbias]

There are 16,200,000 reasons that Alex Smith will be the starting QB in 2019. Only reason to think otherwise is that he's physically not able to do so. 

Current Contract

Year	Age	Base Salary (Guaranteed)	Bonuses				Cap Number	Cap %		Dead Money & Cap Savings Cut (pre-June 1)Cut (post-June 1)Trade (pre-June 1)Trade (post-June 1)RestructureExtension
			Prorated	Roster	Workout	Other
Total		$83,500,000	$27,000,000	$0	$500,000	$0	$111,000,000
2018	34	$13,000,000 $13,000,000	$5,400,000	$0	$0	$0	$18,400,000	10.4%		$55,000,000	($36,600,000)
2019	35	$15,000,000 $15,000,000	$5,400,000	$0	$0	$0	$20,400,000	10.7%		$36,600,000	($16,200,000)
2020	36	$16,000,000	$5,400,000	$0	$0	$0	$21,400,000	10.7%		$16,200,000	$5,200,000
2021	37	$18,750,000	$5,400,000	$0	$250,000	$0	$24,400,000	--		$10,800,000	$13,600,000
2022	38	$20,750,000	$5,400,000	$0	$250,000	$0	$26,400,000	--		$5,400,000	$21,000,000

[Morneblade]

24 minutes ago, Unbias said:

There are 16,200,000 reasons that Alex Smith will be the starting QB in 2019. Only reason to think otherwise is that he's physically not able to do so. 

Current Contract

Year	Age	Base Salary (Guaranteed)	Bonuses				Cap Number	Cap %		Dead Money & Cap Savings Cut (pre-June 1)Cut (post-June 1)Trade (pre-June 1)Trade (post-June 1)RestructureExtension
			Prorated	Roster	Workout	Other
Total		$83,500,000	$27,000,000	$0	$500,000	$0	$111,000,000
2018	34	$13,000,000 $13,000,000	$5,400,000	$0	$0	$0	$18,400,000	10.4%		$55,000,000	($36,600,000)
2019	35	$15,000,000 $15,000,000	$5,400,000	$0	$0	$0	$20,400,000	10.7%		$36,600,000	($16,200,000)
2020	36	$16,000,000	$5,400,000	$0	$0	$0	$21,400,000	10.7%		$16,200,000	$5,200,000
2021	37	$18,750,000	$5,400,000	$0	$250,000	$0	$24,400,000	--		$10,800,000	$13,600,000
2022	38	$20,750,000	$5,400,000	$0	$250,000	$0	$26,400,000	--		$5,400,000	$21,000,000

 

It's also very likely he will not be physically able to. At some point he might be fit enough, but there is almost zero likelyhood he will be able to start the season. Honestly, more like October/November.

 

And to be blunt, does anyone really want to see him out there at this point?

[OVCChairman]

25 minutes ago, Unbias said:

There are 16,200,000 reasons that Alex Smith will be the starting QB in 2019. Only reason to think otherwise is that he's physically not able to do so. 

Current Contract

Year	Age	Base Salary (Guaranteed)	Bonuses				Cap Number	Cap %		Dead Money & Cap Savings Cut (pre-June 1)Cut (post-June 1)Trade (pre-June 1)Trade (post-June 1)RestructureExtension
			Prorated	Roster	Workout	Other
Total		$83,500,000	$27,000,000	$0	$500,000	$0	$111,000,000
2018	34	$13,000,000 $13,000,000	$5,400,000	$0	$0	$0	$18,400,000	10.4%		$55,000,000	($36,600,000)
2019	35	$15,000,000 $15,000,000	$5,400,000	$0	$0	$0	$20,400,000	10.7%		$36,600,000	($16,200,000)
2020	36	$16,000,000	$5,400,000	$0	$0	$0	$21,400,000	10.7%		$16,200,000	$5,200,000
2021	37	$18,750,000	$5,400,000	$0	$250,000	$0	$24,400,000	--		$10,800,000	$13,600,000
2022	38	$20,750,000	$5,400,000	$0	$250,000	$0	$26,400,000	--		$5,400,000	$21,000,000

 

 

The $16.2 mil has nothing to do with 2019... that's his signing bonus dead cap number.  He's also got an additional $15 mil in guaranteed salary, so he's got that money coming as well, regardless of what he does.  

[Morneblade]

2 hours ago, bird_1972 said:

 

Not 100% sure what your point is here - are you saying that it's best for everyone if he busts his ass and makes it back onto the field or if he retires after attempting to do so given the unlikelihood he recovers as a 35 year old? 

 

Well, retirement would be best for us, and maybe him. But I don't see that happening. Alex will bust his ass to get back.

[FuriousD]

7 minutes ago, Morneblade said:

 

 Alex will bust his ass to get back.

Curious what you think his motivation will be?  I mean, we're talking about the most horrific injury of his football career, his age, his pay for the next 2 years and let's not forget his family!  Do you think they will be supporting him to go back out on the field after that!??

 

Seriously, if the man is smart he'll hang it up.

[Morneblade]

Just now, FuriousD said:

Curious what you think his motivation will be?  I mean, we're talking about the most horrific injury of his football career, his age, his pay for the next 2 years and let's not forget his family!  Do you think they will be supporting him to go back out on the field after that!??

 

Seriously, if the man is smart he'll hang it up.

 

Well, I'm not an expert on Alex Smith, but my thoughts are as follows;

He's a pretty driven guy. His off season training is proof of that. He's also been written off twice by teams. He doesn't quit even when people loose faith in him.

 

He's a competitor, and he will try his best to come back. I think he still wants to play, and I think he wants to prove to people that he isn't done.

[JSSkinz]

2 hours ago, Bigmuss1 said:

I jumped into this convo late about Alex, but.......my question is, what if HE decides to retire?  What happens financially to the Skins?  

 

 

We owe him $52.6 million (His contract was $71M fully guaranteed, we paid him $18.4M of that so far) and there's no way out unless he retires and takes a settlement.

[Unbias]

38 minutes ago, OVCChairman said:

 

 

The $16.2 mil has nothing to do with 2019... that's his signing bonus dead cap number.  He's also got an additional $15 mil in guaranteed salary, so he's got that money coming as well, regardless of what he does.  

 

I respectfully disagree. The Skins are on the hook for his cap number ($20.4M), which includes the $15M in guaranteed salary. The $16.2M becomes important because if they decide to move on from Smith they would effectively have a $36.6M cap hit for no player on the roster. The $16.2M is the added cap cost of moving on from Smith in 2019, so it probably won't happen.  

 

Personally I think his extension will be similar to Blake Bortles, where the team will end up cutting him loose after when the cap impact isn't so punitive. 

32 minutes ago, FuriousD said:

Curious what you think his motivation will be?  I mean, we're talking about the most horrific injury of his football career, his age, his pay for the next 2 years and let's not forget his family!  Do you think they will be supporting him to go back out on the field after that!??

 

Seriously, if the man is smart he'll hang it up.

 

Are you being Serious? If he shows up next year and fails a physical he gets $15,000,000. You think he should retire? He's played his entire career not making that type of money and now, with a guaranteed contract already in place he'll decide to walk (or limp) away? 

[goskins10]

3 hours ago, Bigmuss1 said:

I jumped into this convo late about Alex, but.......my question is, what if HE decides to retire?  What happens financially to the Skins?  

 

 

 

2 minutes ago, JSSkinz said:

We owe him $52.6 million (His contract was $71M fully guaranteed, we paid him $18.4M of that so far) and there's no way out unless he retires and takes a settlement.

Slight adjustment there. I know what you meant but the way it's worded is not accurate. Not trying to be an ass here at all. If we don't make it clear here, there will be a long conversation as to what the right numbers are:

 

At the end of this season the Redskins will have paid Alex $40M - $27M signing Bonus that he already received in full and his $13M salary for this year that is paid over the season. The Redskins CAP hit for his salary so far is $18.4M, which is the important number in terms of the original question. 

 

What happens if he retires? The team has to pay him the remaining $31M owed - that is his salaries for 2019 and 2020 as they are fully guaranteed. As stated he has already (or will have) received $40M of the $71M owed.

 

They will owe a CAP hit of $52.6M. That gets accelerated into the current year. Similar to being cut, They can designate it as a June 1 separation which would allow them to his 2019 salary and pro-rated signing bonus against the 2019 CAP ($20.4M) and the rest ($31.2M) against the 2020 CAP. Otherwise they would have to take the full $52.6M in 2019. 

 

The only thing I do not know is if retired before the 5th day of the 2019 season is the 2020 salary of $16M still guaranteed? As others pointed out above, there is no reason for him to retire before then so I have no idea why he would just leave $16M on the table and walk away. That would be crazy to say the least. It's more curiosity than thinking he would ever actually do that. 

 

Last but not least, if he does retire, the Redskins would retain the rights to him if he were to try and come back to the NFL. Again, not likely given his age. But it is the way the rules work. 

 

 

2 minutes ago, Unbias said:

 

I respectfully disagree. The Skins are on the hook for his cap number ($20.4M), which includes the $15M in guaranteed salary. The $16.2M becomes important because if they decide to move on from Smith they would effectively have a $36.6M cap hit for no player on the roster. The $16.2M is the added cap cost of moving on from Smith in 2019, so it probably won't happen.  

 

Personally I think his extension will be similar to Blake Bortles, where the team will end up cutting him loose after when the cap impact isn't so punitive. 

 

The Redskins cannot "move on" from Alex. You cannot release a player that is injured unless you come to an injury settlement. He remains on IR until he passes a physical, he retires, they come to an injury settlement, or his contract runs out. The Redskins have no options here that do not include Alex agreeing to some kind of terms or making the move himself. He has all the options.  

 

[Unbias]

30 minutes ago, Morneblade said:

 

Well, I'm not an expert on Alex Smith, but my thoughts are as follows;

He's a pretty driven guy. His off season training is proof of that. He's also been written off twice by teams. He doesn't quit even when people loose faith in him.

 

He's a competitor, and he will try his best to come back. I think he still wants to play, and I think he wants to prove to people that he isn't done.

 

I 100% agree with this. Remember, he graduated a year early and has always been a great athlete. People forget that he ran 4.78 40 yard dash when he was drafted and many felt had the better arm over Aaron Rodgers. 

 

For me the problem is not his effort, it's the end result. This is the 3rd team he's been a 'franchise' QB for. After the 2 teams before us spent a lot of time with him they both drafted the next 'franchise' guy... 

[JSSkinz]

7 minutes ago, goskins10 said:

They will owe a CAP hit of $52.6M. That gets accelerated into the current year. Similar to being cut, They can designate it as a June 1 separation which would allow them to his 2019 salary and pro-rated signing bonus against the 2019 CAP ($20.4M) and the rest ($31.2M) against the 2020 CAP. Otherwise they would have to take the full $52.6M in 2019. 

Thanks for breaking that down, I wonder if we can balance those 2019 and 2020 caps hits, do we have that ability to decide how much of that remaining cap goes to which year?

 

For example, can we split it evenly between 2019 and 2020 or can take a much larger cap penalty in 2019 to limit the penalty in 2020?

 

What I'm not clear on is do they have the ability to get creative on how they take the cap penalty?

[goskins10]

48 minutes ago, FuriousD said:

Curious what you think his motivation will be?  I mean, we're talking about the most horrific injury of his football career, his age, his pay for the next 2 years and let's not forget his family!  Do you think they will be supporting him to go back out on the field after that!??

 

Seriously, if the man is smart he'll hang it up.

I am pretty sure none of us are in a position to decide what's the smart thing for Alex to do. He and his family will have to decide that - and it may be to try and get back to playing football as soon as possible. 

 

I agree with @Morneblade and others - regardless of how you feel about his play - Alex is an extremely driven person. He will work his ass off to the very end if that's what he decides to do - and that would not surprise me one bit. 

 

As for the team - you would have to make him earn the starting role. That's actually what Joe Gibbs told Joe T. If he could pass the physical he would let him compete for (not be given) the starting role. he could not pass the physical so he retired.