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Starting QB 2019???


Renegade7

Who should be the starting QB in 2019???  

402 members have voted

  1. 1. Who should be the starting QB in 2019???

    • Alex Smith
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    • Colt McCoy
      66
    • Trade for a Veteran
      8
    • Sign a Veteran
      29
    • First Round Pick (2019 draft class)
      65
    • Non-First Round Pick (2019 draft class)
      37
    • Too Early to Answer
      63
    • I don't know yet
      22
    • We're screwed (at least at QB for 2019)
      83


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27 minutes ago, Skin'emAlive said:

 

Where are you getting this confidence with regards to Rosen? Haskins put up FAR superior numbers, and results, against better competition than Rosen ever did in college. So now one year removed from being the 4th qb taken overall and having a forgettable season and franchise reboot in the pros, he is now the 2nd best qb available? That doesnt compute.

 

Lets look at some college numbers:

(For quality of strength for each quarterback, these numbers below are from RANKED opponents only, and not including bowl games)

 

Will Grier

(stats from 2017 and 2018 seasons)

In 2 seasons Will Grier threw for under 300 yards only twice.

In the 8 games vs ranked opponents, he threw for 368 yds/gm, 3.1 tds, and 1 int/game

 

Dwayne Haskins

(stats from 2018 season)

in the 4 games vs ranked opponents, he threw for 321 yds/gm, 3 tds, and .25 int/gm

 

Josh Rosen

(stats from 2015-2017 seasons)

2016 season was shortened due to injury

in the 8 games vs ranked opponents, he threw for 262 yds/gm, 1.9 tds, and .75 int/gm

 

Drew Lock

(stats from 2016-2018 seasons)

Lock played the most difficult ranked teams over the course of his collegiate career

in the 8 games vs ranked opponents, he threw for 220 yds/gm, 1.6 tds, and 1.25 int/gm

 

Daniel Jones

(stats from 2016-2018)

in the 6 games vs ranked opponents, he threw for 180 yds/gm, .5 tds, and .33 int/gm

 

I know this doesnt tell the whole story, but these numbers show how these quarterbacks fared against high quality opponents. On average each of the 4 quarterbacks went up against about 8 ranked opponents in their collegiate careers. If Haskins stayed at Ohio next season, perhaps we would have better statistics for him. His sample size is small, but his numbers on the year and interception rate is very impressive. Of the 4 guys that we are presumably looking at, Will Grier had far more yards per game on average and the highest touchdown/game rate (3.1) against the best competition. That shouldnt be ignored. He plays up to the quality of the opponent. Conversely, both Lock and Rosen play down to the better competition. Daniel Jones is trash.

 

IMO, we should be targeting Haskins or Grier. One of those 2 will probably require moving up to acquire. The other should very will be available to us in the 2nd, and possibly even the 3rd.

 

 

 

 

JMO, that's all.  :)  Have a great day.  

Just now, mistertim said:

Trading up for Murray would abject insanity. He's got some great skills but he's far from a can't miss prospect and IMO he wouldn't even fit Jay's scheme. 

If Murray fell to like #9 or something I can see a trade but I think we all know he's going #1 overall.

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So which QB's are we really interested in if we don't go the Rosen route between Haskins, Grier, Lock, Jones, Finley, Rypien etc.

 

For now, I'd be okay with Haskins, then Lock, then I'd rather pass entirely and just grab an undrafted free agent unless one of the third tier guys really falls and even then I'd probably pass. Just don't like the class. Thing they're clinically insane to argue that guys like Lock, and Jones, and Haskins are the level Rosen was/is as a prospect. That's just recency bias horse bleep to me (I get why just looking at the #'s might make one feel that way, but we've got a sample size of multiple years with a mediocre UCLA squad, or 1 year with a total dumpster fire s show in Arizona, I know which sample size I'd give more credence too). 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

49 minutes ago, Skin'emAlive said:

 

Where are you getting this confidence with regards to Rosen? Haskins put up FAR superior numbers, and results, against better competition than Rosen ever did in college. So now one year removed from being the 4th qb taken overall and having a forgettable season and franchise reboot in the pros, he is now the 2nd best qb available? That doesnt compute.

 

Lets look at some college numbers:

(For quality of strength for each quarterback, these numbers below are from RANKED opponents only, and not including bowl games)

 

Will Grier

(stats from 2017 and 2018 seasons)

In 2 seasons Will Grier threw for under 300 yards only twice.

In the 8 games vs ranked opponents, he threw for 368 yds/gm, 3.1 tds, and 1 int/game

 

Dwayne Haskins

(stats from 2018 season)

in the 4 games vs ranked opponents, he threw for 321 yds/gm, 3 tds, and .25 int/gm

 

Josh Rosen

(stats from 2015-2017 seasons)

2016 season was shortened due to injury

in the 8 games vs ranked opponents, he threw for 262 yds/gm, 1.9 tds, and .75 int/gm

 

Drew Lock

(stats from 2016-2018 seasons)

Lock played the most difficult ranked teams over the course of his collegiate career

in the 8 games vs ranked opponents, he threw for 220 yds/gm, 1.6 tds, and 1.25 int/gm

 

Daniel Jones

(stats from 2016-2018)

in the 6 games vs ranked opponents, he threw for 180 yds/gm, .5 tds, and .33 int/gm

 

I know this doesnt tell the whole story, but these numbers show how these quarterbacks fared against high quality opponents. On average each of the 4 quarterbacks went up against about 8 ranked opponents in their collegiate careers. If Haskins stayed at Ohio next season, perhaps we would have better statistics for him. His sample size is small, but his numbers on the year and interception rate is very impressive. Of the 4 guys that we are presumably looking at, Will Grier had far more yards per game on average and the highest touchdown/game rate (3.1) against the best competition. That shouldnt be ignored. He plays up to the quality of the opponent. Conversely, both Lock and Rosen play down to the better competition. Daniel Jones is trash.

 

IMO, we should be targeting Haskins or Grier. One of those 2 will probably require moving up to acquire. The other should very will be available to us in the 2nd, and possibly even the 3rd.

 

 

 

 

Nice Research, compelling counterargument to my post above. 

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Kinda interesting to see PFF's write up on Rosen from a year ago:

 

6. JOSH ROSEN, UCLA – QUARTERBACK

Last year’s top-graded quarterback on intermediate (10-19-yard) throws, Rosen has the zip and touch to make tight-window throws. His aggressiveness allows him to create big-play opportunities all over the field, but it also gets him into trouble with a high percentage of turnover-worthy plays. Rosen graded between 84.0 and 86.3 in all three years of his career at UCLA, all solid grades, though not the dominant performances you’d like to see for a quarterback in the mix to be the first overall pick.

 

link: https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/draft-pff-big-board-top-250-players-for-the-2018-nfl-draft

 

Ranked way higher in their 250, then the non-Kyler Murray QB's are ranked this year in what's regarded as a much worse QB class in general. This would put Rosen as #3 on their board in terms of QB's.

 

If you want to see what they're saying about the current class:

 

link:

https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/draft-pffs-top-250-big-board-for-the-2019-nfl-draft

 

Seems like damning by faint praise in their Rosen review, not sure why they ranked him at 6 w/that kind of write up, should probably dig around more. 

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28 minutes ago, RWJ said:

If Murray fell to like #9 or something I can see a trade but I think we all know he's going #1 overall.

 

Oh, if he fell to 9 then I'd be ok with it. I just meant trading up to #1 overall. IMO he's very talented but he isn't anywhere near enough of a sure thing to give up what it would likely take to move that far up.

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3 minutes ago, Skin'emAlive said:

Im not really on board with Murray here, because I dont think he would be a good fit, nor do I think we could keep him healthy. I think he's a good QB that would thrive in the right system. Just dont realistically see him having success here.

 

Completely agree. In the right system Murray could be excellent but I don't think Jay is the right coach for him and it isn't the right system. Jay has always been relatively rigid in his system and not overly flexible in modifying it to suit the players that are on the field.

 

And yeah, his diminutive size is a big risk factor, no matter what team he goes to. There's also almost zero chance that his combine weight is his actual playing weight. And now he's likely heading to a team with hands down the worst offensive line in football. That could get ugly. 

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Im 100% certain that If Haskins were to return to Ohio State next year, He would compete with Tua for the #1. The numbers he put up this year, and the extremely low pick rate are rare. Say he put up two 4800 yard seasons in a row with another 50-burger, 70% comp rate, and a 174 qbr... Tua cant touch those numbers. If he falls, Im perfectly fine making a move to get him without selling my kidneys.

 

Otherwise, Will has been surprisingly strong in all aspects of the game. If he turns out to be what the numbers are showing, we could have an absolute killer draft while reloading on multiple areas of need with high quality prospects.

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52 minutes ago, Skin'emAlive said:

Im 100% certain that If Haskins were to return to Ohio State next year, He would compete with Tua for the #1. The numbers he put up this year, and the extremely low pick rate are rare. Say he put up two 4800 yard seasons in a row with another 50-burger, 70% comp rate, and a 174 qbr... Tua cant touch those numbers. If he falls, Im perfectly fine making a move to get him without selling my kidneys.

 

Otherwise, Will has been surprisingly strong in all aspects of the game. If he turns out to be what the numbers are showing, we could have an absolute killer draft while reloading on multiple areas of need with high quality prospects.

 

That I'm not so certain about. I'd be very curious how Haskins would do without a stable full of track stars at WR. His guys were YAC monster speed demons and it shows in his stats as well as his tape. IIRC his average depth of target was super low (I think 7.9 yards or something). He also had one of the better pass pro OLs in CFB. Those things and his somewhat meh footwork are my main issues with him. 

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3 hours ago, RWJ said:

They'd have a great shot at Jones if they rank their QBs this way.  If they are looking to take a QB in the 1st than I would think Jones is their guy at #15.  I can only hope that Lock falls to #15 because I give him the edge over Jones and Haskins.

 

Hoffman was asked today about Jones and he sensed they liked but not per se loved Jones, they have some concerns about him. 

 

I like Lock.  I wouldn't take him at 15, though.   I think he gets picked before that though.   Sheehan said they are convinced (I agree with them if so) they can get a star defensive player with their 15th pick and thereby they are reluctant to take any QB with the 15th pick.

 

My guess right now is they trade for Rosen or take Grier or another 2nd tier type QB in the 2nd or 3rd. 

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Who is the defensive star at #15 though? In my board I see Clellin Ferrell as the only guy possibly falling to or past #15, and I’m not sure I’d consider him a star defensive prospect. Good-great, yea... but not a star. 

 

Tier 1: 

Josh Allen

Nick Bosa

Quinnen Williams

Rashan Gary

Montez Sweat

Devin White

Devin Bush

Ed Oliver

 

Tier 2:

Clellin Ferrell

Byron Murphy

Greedy Williams

Brian Burns

Dexter Lawrence

Jeffery Simmons

 

I can’t see any of tier one falling to 15. I think they could get a star player in Hock (or Metcalf? Or Ferrell? ) here. But I’m not sure that would be as beneficial to our rookie qb as filling out the gaps in our roster would be.  I’d look to trade down to a team that is trying to capitalize on a good season and with multiple draft picks. 

 

1. Indianapolis

2. New England 

3. Kansas City

4. Houston

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• One thing there’s little question about—Missouri’s Drew Lock has won teams over with his personality, which seems to be quelling concerns on his consistency as a collegian.

“It’s his demeanor,” said one AFC scouting director. “He’s unflappable, just has a ton of confidence. Part of the issue with rookie quarterbacks, you’re throwing a lot at them, they start to make mistakes, they get in their own head. … You get sense from Lock, he’ll be unfazed by all that. Like he’ll throw three picks in a game, and come back and think he’s the s--- still.”

 

As it’s been explained to me, he has a rare ability to toggle that confidence while still coming like a really normal guy. Remember, Jon Gruden and the Raiders coached him all week at the Senior Bowl—this isn’t to say they’ll draft him at No. 4, but I have heard Gruden really liked Lock’s swagger.

https://www.si.com/nfl/2019/04/11/nfl-cba-collective-bargaining-agreement-nflpa-jerry-jones-minneapolis?utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=themmqb

 
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20 minutes ago, Skin'emAlive said:

I can’t see any of tier one falling to 15. I think they could get a star player in Hock (or Metcalf? Or Ferrell? ) here. But I’m not sure that would be as beneficial to our rookie qb as filling out the gaps in our roster would be.  I’d look to trade down to a team that is trying to capitalize on a good season and with multiple draft picks. 

 

1. Indianapolis

2. New England 

3. Kansas City

4. Houston

 

This. I really hope we trade back and grab some extra picks this year as we really need some offensive help and a few pieces on defense. I would be okay with hockenson at 15, but would prefer a receiver in the late first and a later TE, like in the third.

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2 hours ago, Skin'emAlive said:

Good YAC has more to do with ball placement than receiver speed. Something that Dwayne is very very good at, and his low pick rate supports that. It’s something I think he could replicate. The numbers may be skewed a bit due to talent, but it’s not far off. 

 

I think in general it has to do with ball placement, receiver speed, and receiver route running.

 

In the NFL I think it's more ball placement and route running than pure speed because the talent differential between WRs and DBs is far smaller than it is in college. In college Haskins had three 4.4 and under guys who could just outrun the dudes covering them after getting the ball and they did it plenty. They didn't really need to run great routes (that's actually one of my issues with Parris Campbell) or have perfect throw placement in order to take it to the house.

 

That being said, I do agree that Haskins has very good touch/anticipation on short and intermediate routes. But I also still worry that his production and efficiency was inflated due to utilizing a ton of short passes and having such burners at WR. It's much easier to keep your interceptions low when you're making lots of short passes, just ask Alex Smith. 

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26 minutes ago, Skin'emAlive said:

 

I can’t see any of tier one falling to 15. I think they could get a star player in Hock (or Metcalf? Or Ferrell? ) here. But I’m not sure that would be as beneficial to our rookie qb as filling out the gaps in our roster would be.  I’d look to trade down to a team that is trying to capitalize on a good season and with multiple draft picks. 

 

 

We all know it's pretty rare for the real draft to mimic the mock drafts to a tee -- you just about always get surprises.  Closer to the draft last year, Derwin James was often in the 5-10 range in mocks.  Jonathan Allen was anywhere from 4-8 range give or take.  They fell to our pick and in James' case he fell even further.

 

For example, I was just listening to Tony Pauline who is typically plugged in and he said he's heard Atlanta might be looking strongly at D. Lawrence or G. Williams with their first rounder.  You just about always get a wildcard pick like that, usually multiple wildcards, where guys go top 15 that weren't expected to go that high.  And in turn it drops players that you wouldn't expect otherwise.    So as to what player that will be?  Who knows since it's impossible to predict.  Sweat?  Oliver?  You got me.   I think the only thing that is predictable is you are likely going to have at least 2 picks in the top 14 that will surprise people and in turn will drop an unexpected player our way at 15.  Heck in that same podcast, Pauline said multiple teams really like Jonah Williams in the top 14.  Jonah is often I notice in 16-20 range in mocks.   I've heard mentioned that C. Wilkins could go top 14.  Some think some team might surprise and take D. Jones top 14.  Tough to predict what wildcard move actually goes down but there is plenty of chatter that something might happen like that.  Something like that always seems to happen.

 

The Redskins are in good shape to capitalize off of that dynamic.  If they were picking lets say at #20, I think good shot they'd miss out on one of these surprise fallers.  But yeah I agree with their mindset that a stud defender falls to their #15 pick.  But if it ends up Hockenson instead, I'd be more than glad to take him.  According to a couple of beat guys they do like Hockenson and might take him if he falls to #15.  Hoffman doesn't think they like Metcalf based on a conversation he had with a source there. 

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1 hour ago, Skin'emAlive said:

Who is the defensive star at #15 though? In my board I see Clellin Ferrell as the only guy possibly falling to or past #15, and I’m not sure I’d consider him a star defensive prospect. Good-great, yea... but not a star. 

 

Tier 1: 

Josh Allen

Nick Bosa

Quinnen Williams

Rashan Gary

Montez Sweat

Devin White

Devin Bush

Ed Oliver

 

Tier 2:

Clellin Ferrell

Byron Murphy

Greedy Williams

Brian Burns

Dexter Lawrence

Jeffery Simmons

 

I can’t see any of tier one falling to 15. I think they could get a star player in Hock (or Metcalf? Or Ferrell? ) here. But I’m not sure that would be as beneficial to our rookie qb as filling out the gaps in our roster would be.  I’d look to trade down to a team that is trying to capitalize on a good season and with multiple draft picks. 

 

1. Indianapolis

2. New England 

3. Kansas City

4. Houston

 

I'd actually be surprised if one of the 8 guys you listed doesn't fall. i don't know who, but it always seems to be someone each year.

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2 hours ago, Skin'emAlive said:

Who is the defensive star at #15 though? In my board I see Clellin Ferrell as the only guy possibly falling to or past #15, and I’m not sure I’d consider him a star defensive prospect. Good-great, yea... but not a star. 

 

 

Montez Sweat

Devin White

Byron Murphy

Greedy Williams

Brian Burns

 

 

 

The ones bolded and left in your thread might be targets at #15.  I really like Sweat.

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These following players will NOT be there at 15:

 

1). Murray

2). Bosa

3). Q. Williams

4). Allen

5). White

 

After that, its anybody's guess.  There could be a run on o-lineman (like last year where Mcglinchey and Miller went top 15).  Williams, Taylor, and Dillard could all go before us. Pauline has said the Bills and GB are looking at o-line.  Miami needs a RT to replace James who left in FA.  

 

 

 

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5 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

• One thing there’s little question about—Missouri’s Drew Lock has won teams over with his personality, which seems to be quelling concerns on his consistency as a collegian.

“It’s his demeanor,” said one AFC scouting director. “He’s unflappable, just has a ton of confidence. Part of the issue with rookie quarterbacks, you’re throwing a lot at them, they start to make mistakes, they get in their own head. … You get sense from Lock, he’ll be unfazed by all that. Like he’ll throw three picks in a game, and come back and think he’s the s--- still.”

 

As it’s been explained to me, he has a rare ability to toggle that confidence while still coming like a really normal guy. Remember, Jon Gruden and the Raiders coached him all week at the Senior Bowl—this isn’t to say they’ll draft him at No. 4, but I have heard Gruden really liked Lock’s swagger.

https://www.si.com/nfl/2019/04/11/nfl-cba-collective-bargaining-agreement-nflpa-jerry-jones-minneapolis?utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=themmqb

 

 

Lock's Pros: good guy with a personality

Lock's Cons: very inaccurate

 

Those seem to cancel each other out, right? As long as you are a cool guy, accuracy does not matter

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Lol so some guy on Twitter tweeted a list of the 5 redskins he’s excited to see the most in 2019. 

 

1. Guice 

2. Landon Collins 

3. Kevin o’Connell 

4. Josh Rosen (???)

5. Paul Richardson 

 

i chimed in saying how stupid it is to put Rosen on that list, as he is AT THIS MOMENT not on the team. 

 

People now giving me ****, saying “well, its his list, he can have whoever he wants on there”. Ummm....not if they’re not on the team😂😂😂😂 idiots..

 

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1 hour ago, Jericho said:

 

Lock's Pros: good guy with a personality

Lock's Cons: very inaccurate

 

Those seem to cancel each other out, right? As long as you are a cool guy, accuracy does not matter

And people wonder why the only advantage any team has ever had in it's draft day process in study after study has been simply "having more picks". After studying decade after decade of F.O.'s and their drafts, that was the result. No team or F.O. had any consistent advantage at anything other than when they had more picks. So when I read inane horse

---- like that, I just find it hilarious when people like Ryen Russillo try to learn me something about the complexity and difficulty of team building and how ignorant and full of crap fans are in general when they criticize crap front offices. 

 

 

 

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