Starting QB 2019???

[mistertim]

43 minutes ago, Anselmheifer said:

I don't think it matters if the Cards are obviously in for Murray. For one thing, they can always keep both. Rosen is cheap. If they can build his trade value in limited playing time then it's a win. If not, it's insurance against Murray getting hurt, or not developing as they expect. 

More importantly, it's simple supply and demand. If multiple teams are willing to give up a second, the price goes up. If only one is, the price is a second rounder. 

 

i don't think Rosen's trade value will go anywhere but down if they keep them both, which would be nuts. The only way that would happen is if Murray got hurt and Rosen stepped in and played really well. But are they really going to keep both of them and go in with that assumption of Rosen eventually playing well for a hurt Murray which will in turn elevate his asking price so they can then demand a 1st rounder for him in 2020? That's a ridiculous number of variables that would have to go a certain way. And there's zero chance that they'll let Rosen start at first and sit Murray...not after basically anointing Murray the savior after taking him 1st overall.

 

I think the bottom line is they gotta get rid of Rosen if they're taking Murray at #1. They COULD potentially keep him but outside of a lot of variable coming together, Rosen's stock would just go down. That's not even taking into account the drama that would surround keeping both guys. You'd have the outspoken Rosen and the relatively quiet Murray and you know **** would start to get bad in that locker room. IMO the most they're going to get for him is now, before the draft and at some point they're just gonna have to take the best they can get.

 

Apparently some team has offered a 2nd. We'll see if anyone else jumps in. I have a hard time believing that a team will give up a 1st unless it's a really low one. 

[DWinzit]

On 3/28/2019 at 4:34 PM, UK SKINS FAN '74 said:

Giants have supposedly offered #37 for Rosen,

 

Telling you, our #15 for Rosen and the Cards #33 is a better deal. 

If the belief is Rosen can be the Skins future then this isn't awful. At the 33rd pick there will be 1st round talent at most the need positions. The draft is loaded from the bottom of the first thru the second round.

[DWinzit]

On 3/29/2019 at 12:56 PM, Burgold said:

I’m strangely at peace with Case being our 2019 QB. I like overachievers. I think he deserved better as far being rewarded in Minnesota. I think he was the 2017 version of Trent Dilfer. 

 

The only worry I have is what happens if he proves worthy? If he does then we lose him on a one year rental. 

 

At any rate, I feel okay about giving Case the keys to the car and hope we don’t draft a QB using a number one or two pick. 

I chucked reading this and totally agree for this year. Hope the draft a QB in the 3rd or 4th. Anything more than that is a waste in my eyes until a new coach and hopefully GM next year. Colts arm has always been a concern and Cases is a bit stronger. 

To be honest I'd be okay if they decided to extend Case one year now while I think they could do it on the cheap.

[HigSkin]

On 3/28/2019 at 4:34 PM, UK SKINS FAN '74 said:

Giants have supposedly offered #37 for Rosen,

 

Telling you, our #15 for Rosen and the Cards #33 is a better deal. 

 

This second round pick stuff is kind of fishy.  Cowherd said it was the Giants but also saw a rumor it was the Chargers.  However Klatt who released stuff last week wasn't team specific. I tend to think that 2nd pick chatter might be coming from the Cardinals FO.  🤔 

[HigSkin]

😂😂  Good!

 

 

[Stadium-Armory]

2 hours ago, HigSkin said:

😂😂  Good!

 

<deleted pic / tweet about how the Giants are sticking with Manning>

 

Pre-draft smoke screen of the highest order.

[Skinsinparadise]

I'll give them this. I don't think I've been this confused about their intentions.  And I try to be an info hog and pay attention to almost everything I can get my hands on.  Last year, most of the beat guys nailed it -- right down to highlighting some of the players they wanted.

 

But this time.  We get mixed messages except as to Murray.  But depending on the source they like or don't like:  Haskins, Lock, Jones, Rosen -- Grier.

 

Trading up.  Trading down.  

 

And if this season is win or bust what's the point about a rookie QB?  Any of these guys going to light it up year 1 aside from Murray? 

 

So either they are purposely giving mixed messages or maybe Hoffman is correct in that it looks just like it sounds which is they haven't made up their mind about their path (granted he said that though weeks back).

 

The only thing I can think of that meshes all the narratives together is they think that selling the future/excitement has to really involve a young QB.  So maybe they think they can accomplish both (win now and a young QB) and have their cake and eat it, too.  Or there are differing camps internally pushing for different things.  Or its just pure smoke screen.

 

We can say the beat guys are off about this being a win now or else season -- but if so Jay is in on the subterfuge considering how heavy handed he's talked up them needing in particular their first rounder to be able to hit the ground running next season.   And that Collins and others aren't here for a rebuild.  

 

Personally, I don't blame Jay if that's what he's being told behind the scenes. Win or he's gone.  But from a Dan stand point its a pathetic if they ultimately pass on a QB because of their quest for some sort of magic 2019 season which likely is at best a 9-7 wildcard and a first round loss.    I am not saying that franchise QB is there for the taking.  But IMO if it is I'd put zero stock in whether the guy can help them win right away.

 

 

 

 

[bakedtater1]

Eli Manning is a hall of fame qb with two Superbowl wins...I appreciate him playing for the Giants..he's beat us we have beat him...I think our defense plays well against him getting multiple sacks and some times multiple picks..I love the fun with drunk Eli pics during the season..here's to Eli staying a giant for 3 more years!!

[RWJ]

1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said:

I'll give them this. I don't think I've been this confused about their intentions.  And I try to be an info hog and pay attention to almost everything I can get my hands on.  Last year, most of the beat guys nailed it -- right down to highlighting some of the players they wanted.

 

But this time.  We get mixed messages except as to Murray.  But depending on the source they like or don't like:  Haskins, Lock, Jones, Rosen -- Grier.

 

Trading up.  Trading down.  

 

And if this season is win or bust what's the point about a rookie QB?  Any of these guys going to light it up year 1 aside from Murray? 

 

So either they are purposely giving mixed messages or maybe Hoffman is correct in that it looks just like it sounds which is they haven't made up their mind about their path (granted he said that though weeks back).

 

The only thing I can think of that meshes all the narratives together is they think that selling the future/excitement has to really involve a young QB.  So maybe they think they can accomplish both (win now and a young QB) and have their cake and eat it, too.  Or there are differing camps internally pushing for different things.  Or its just pure smoke screen.

 

We can say the beat guys are off about this being a win now or else season -- but if so Jay is in on the subterfuge considering how heavy handed he's talked up them needing in particular their first rounder to be able to hit the ground running next season.   And that Collins and others aren't here for a rebuild.  

 

Personally, I don't blame Jay if that's what he's being told behind the scenes. Win or he's gone.  But from a Dan stand point its a pathetic if they ultimately pass on a QB because of their quest for some sort of magic 2019 season which likely is at best a 9-7 wildcard and a first round loss.    I am not saying that franchise QB is there for the taking.  But IMO if it is I'd put zero stock in whether the guy can help them win right away.

 

Well, via what Coffman is saying Jay likes Lock.  Jay also went to Grier's Pro Day and watched him work out and took him to dinner for sushi.  The other interesting thing here is Snyder's son is good friends with Haskins and we believe that the Skins like Murray.  Question is who do they pick. 

[Skinsinparadise]

2 hours ago, RWJ said:

Well, via what Coffman is saying Jay likes Lock.  Jay also went to Grier's Pro Day and watched him work out and took him to dinner for sushi.  The other interesting thing here is Snyder's son is good friends with Haskins and we believe that the Skins like Murray.  Question is who do they pick. 

 

But you got some conflicts in the narratives too.

 

Haskins:  Sheehan:  Jay doesn't like Haskins.  Laconfora:  The Redskins really like Haskins.  Yeah the story about Dan's son knowing Haskins is sometimes part of the narrative on this.  Jay talking about Haskins not being ready in year 1 plays into Sheehan's narrative some. 

 

Lock:  Have heard Hoffman actually say the Redskins FO isn't enamored with Lock. Then have heard Finlay say they like Lock. 

 

Jones:  have heard they like him early on in the process but very little lately.  Most common rumor now about Jones is that they might be intrigued if they get him in a trade down. 

 

Grier:  We know Jay took him out to dinner, and he likes him but that's about it that I can recall

 

Stidham:  some rumors that they like him

 

Rosen:  According to Hoffman they'd explore a trade but aren't likely willing to give up a first.  Either he or Finlay said (don't recall which one) that they haven't really dived in yet of late and took a fresh look at Rosen including his Arizona stint but they'd eventually get to it.  They do naturally have their own internal report though from the 2018 draft.  I presume though on every prospect you have their strengths and weaknesses mapped out.  So you'd want to see how they played out in season 1 so I presume they haven't done that part of their homework, yet.

 

I've said this before if they are really going for a smoke screen then I wonder about Finley.  We hear nothing about him so wonder if that's on purpose.  He's relatively pro ready.  He's a WCO type.  He's older than the typical rookie (ditto Grier) so presume he's more mature.  And they wouldn't have to give up a first rounder for him.  He checks a lot of boxes off.   Stidham for example IMO while talented is more of a work in progress and unlikely to be a year 1 hit the ground running type.   Grier would have to adjust his style some IMO.  Finley is the most plug and play IMO in Jay's system among the 2nd tier type Qbs. 

 

Rypien is another dude we haven't seen linked to them.  He also arguably is somewhat pro ready albeit without special traits.  But considering how Dan is wrapped up in nostalgia -- it wouldn't shock me if he's pushing it.  Rypien likely I'd guess will be available in the 3rd or 4th. 

 

 

 

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

 

[Skinsinparadise]

Feeling too lazy to put up my own clips on Finley right now.  But agree with the takes below.  He's got some sneaky athleticism.    He screams to me a Jay kind of QB.   WCO -- short throws, methodical progression type.   Not saying the dude will be a stud but he might have the highest floor among that next tier of QBs.   IMO at worst a good back up. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[mistertim]

The whole "day 1 starter rookie" thing, if true, is baffling to me. I don't see a single one of those in the top QBs of this draft. Murray possibly, but only if he ends up with a coach who will build is offense around Murray's strengths. As good as the tools that he has are, Murray still only has one year of experience and still came from an Air Raid QB friendly system...though if he goes to AZ then he'll likely go right back into one.

 

Lock has more starting experience but I think his issues under pressure will cause problems in the NFL. Haskins comes from a more "pro style" system but he also only has one year of starting experience, had really good protection, and a stable full of 4.3-4.4 speedsters who were YAC monsters.

 

I don't see much in Finley. Decent arm. Footwork is smooth but looks sloooow sometimes. Quick release. Comes from a more pro style system but consistently locks on to his primary target a lot. Nice touch on back shoulder throws. Mediocre deep ball. Good overall accuracy. Tended to panic and back peddle too soon when pressure got to him. 

[BRAVEONAWARPATH]

Wrong thread

[pcbothwel]

2 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Feeling too lazy to put up my own clips on Finley right now.  But agree with the takes below.  He's got some sneaky athleticism.    He screams to me a Jay kind of QB.   WCO -- short throws, methodical progression type.   Not saying the dude will be a stud but he might have the highest floor among that next tier of QBs.   IMO at worst a good b

 

 

This... For the life of me I cant understand how people rate Grier and maybe even Jones above Finley.

His arm isnt great, but its not terrible.. and he really checks every other box.

I wouldnt hesitate to take him with our second 3rd if Jay and Co like him

 

MOD edited - DO NOT QUOTE LONG STRINGS OF TEXT OR PICTURES/VIDEO.

[RWJ]

1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

But you got some conflicts in the narratives too.

 

Haskins:  Sheehan:  Jay doesn't like Haskins.  Laconfora:  The Redskins really like Haskins.  Yeah the story about Dan's son knowing Haskins is sometimes part of the narrative on this.  Jay talking about Haskins not being ready in year 1 plays into Sheehan's narrative some. 

 

Lock:  Have heard Hoffman actually say the Redskins FO isn't enamored with Lock. Then have heard Finlay say they like Lock. 

 

Jones:  have heard they like him early on in the process but very little lately.  Most common rumor now about Jones is that they might be intrigued if they get him in a trade down. 

 

Grier:  We know Jay took him out to dinner, and he likes him but that's about it that I can recall

 

Stidham:  some rumors that they like him

 

Rosen:  According to Hoffman they'd explore a trade but aren't likely willing to give up a first.  Either he or Finlay said (don't recall which one) that they haven't really dived in yet of late and took a fresh look at Rosen including his Arizona stint but they'd eventually get to it.  They do naturally have their own internal report though from the 2018 draft.  I presume though on every prospect you have their strengths and weaknesses mapped out.  So you'd want to see how they played out in season 1 so I presume they haven't done that part of their homework, yet.

 

I've said this before if they are really going for a smoke screen then I wonder about Finley.  We hear nothing about him so wonder if that's on purpose.  He's relatively pro ready.  He's a WCO type.  He's older than the typical rookie (ditto Grier) so presume he's more mature.  And they wouldn't have to give up a first rounder for him.  He checks a lot of boxes off.   Stidham for example IMO while talented is more of a work in progress and unlikely to be a year 1 hit the ground running type.   Grier would have to adjust his style some IMO.  Finley is the most plug and play IMO in Jay's system among the 2nd tier type Qbs. 

 

Rypien is another dude we haven't seen linked to them.  He also arguably is somewhat pro ready albeit without special traits.  But considering how Dan is wrapped up in nostalgia -- it wouldn't shock me if he's pushing it.  Rypien likely I'd guess will be available in the 3rd or 4th. 

All good points, SIP that I didn't think about.   The Skins FO is doing a good job at keeping everyone guessing and having no ideal what direction they are going in.  It will be excited between now (Rosen trade) and the draft.  Can't wait until the draft.   

[Skinsinparadise]

48 minutes ago, mistertim said:

The whole "day 1 starter rookie" thing, if true, is baffling to me. I don't see a single one of those in the top QBs of this draft. Murray possibly, but only if he ends up with a coach who will build is offense around Murray's strengths.

 

Agree with this except I have a lot of confidence that Murray gets off to a hot start.

 

48 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

I don't see much in Finley. Decent arm. Footwork is smooth but looks sloooow sometimes. Quick release. Comes from a more pro style system but consistently locks on to his primary target a lot. Nice touch on back shoulder throws. Mediocre deep ball. Good overall accuracy. Tended to panic and back peddle too soon when pressure got to him. 

 

Agree with some but not all of this. Certainly not the pressure part though. 

 

I just watched a condensed version of his game against Clemson.  I posted a couple of clips below. I picked that game since NC were manhandled by Clemson's big bad D line.   Finley looked fine as for handling pressure.  We got some QBs in this draft who looked frazzled and or do dumb things when they deal with pressure.  Finley isn't one of those QBs IMO.  I think he's fine on that count.  He has decent mobility.  He is decent at selling play action.  He can throw on the run-boots.  He has played under center so no adjustment needed on that front.  If Jay wants a QB who has had plenty of starts -- Finley has almost as many as Lock who Jay touted on that front.  He has a quick release.  Cooley makes a big deal about having QBs who can get to their check down fast if nothing is open -- Finlay does that well. 

 

His arm IMO is nothing special and doesn't get much mustard on intermediate throws.  He doesn't have a special arm.  I agree he locks into his first reads a lot but not always.  I agree that he has a mediocre deep ball.  I saw a nice play where he looked off a safety and threw a dime in the other direction.  But he might be one of the most pro-ready WCO QBs types in that 2nd tier group.  I didn't like Finley when I watched him initially because I was looking for special traits.  And he doesn't have them.  But then I readjusted my thinking to how they might be thinking.  And his traits though aren't bad IMO.  He's tall.  He's relatively fast.  His release is good.  And yeah I think he can handle pressure coming from NFL defenses. 

 

If the FO's game is this:

 

A.  They don't want to spend a first rounder on a QB ideally

B.  They want a QB who can compete right away

C.  Want a QB with a good number of college starts

D.  Someone who might be more talented than the two QBs who are on the roster.

 

Finley to me fits all of that.  I don't love Finley.   But among the 2nd tier group, he has some intrigue to me.  And it wouldn't shock me if he beat Colt and Keenum for the job. 

 

View image on Twitter

PFF Draft

 

✔@PFF_College

 

 

Among all returning ACC QBs - NC State's Ryan Finley fielded the conference's highest passer rating under pressure a season ago

 

138

3:31 PM - Feb 15, 2018

 

https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/college-closer-look-8-best-quarterbacks-in-the-country

 

RYAN FINLEY, NC STATE

2018 grade: 93.0

Finley has thrived under pressure this season, recording a 114.6 passer rating (eighth) and 72.7% adjusted completion percentage (eighth). Credit the NC State offensive line for allowing Finley to be pressured on just 18.1% of his dropbacks, the fifth-lowest rate in the nation.

 

 

[mistertim]

@SkinsinparadiseFinley might be better under pressure than I gave him credit for; the numbers certainly seem to indicate he isn't bad in that area, but he did have a very good OL which PFF noted so some of it can be attributed to that. I was just giving a qualitative analysis based on the cutups I watched and I'm far from a pro scout so I could be completely off base. It just seemed to me like at times he was too quick to break from the pocket and go backwards once pressure was able to get close to him. It wasn't anything glaring but just something I noted when coming up with positives and negatives.

 

As far as locking on, yeah I also saw him look off of guys and use his eyes vs safeties but it seemed to be less than other prospects. That or he did it more often but was very subtle so I didn't notice it. That's a major issue I have with Jones as well...he stares down his primary read way too often. Between Jones and Finley as a 2nd tier QB I'd probably take Finley, though I'd take Grier before either of them. 

[Skinsinparadise]

47 minutes ago, mistertim said:

@Skinsinparadise

As far as locking on, yeah I also saw him look off of guys and use his eyes vs safeties but it seemed to be less than other prospects. That or he did it more often but was very subtle so I didn't notice it. That's a major issue I have with Jones as well...he stares down his primary read way too often. Between Jones and Finley as a 2nd tier QB I'd probably take Finley, though I'd take Grier before either of them. 

 

Am cool with Grier, too

 

 

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-nfl-is-drafting-quarterbacks-all-wrong/

 

Completion percentage is the performance measurable that best translates from college to the NFL. The metric’s shortcomings — players can pad their completion percentage with short, safe passes, for instance — are well-known. But even in its raw form, it’s a useful predictive tool.

Completion percentage translates from college to the NFL

Share of NFL quarterback performance predicted by college performance in seven measures, 2011-18

	SHARE PREDICTED
Completion percentage	17.9%	–
Average depth of target	16.7	–
ESPN’s Total QBR	12.1	–
Yards per game	9.2	–
Touchdown rate	8.5	–
Yards per attempt	7.0	–
Adjusted yards per attempt	4.2	–

 

Kyler Murray’s accuracy and rushing put him atop his class

College quarterbacks invited to the 2019 NFL combine by their career statistics and predicted probability of success*

	COLLEGE STATS
PLAYER	CPOE	YPA	AVG. DEPTH OF TARGET	TOTAL QBR	PREDICTED PROB.†
Kyler Murray	+9%	10.4	10.4	92	97%
Will Grier	+6	9.0	10.2	78	90
Ryan Finley	+4	7.6	8.5	76	78
Jordan Ta’amu	+6	9.5	10.1	72	72
Dwayne Haskins	+9	9.1	7.8	87	63

[bakedtater1]

I'm just dying to know what's going on in that office right now.. Jay gruden's already said he doesn't want a QB to groom and wants a QB ready to go.. does the front office want a quarterback at that number 15 spot to have for keenum? Colt? to groom..please Redskins stay put at 15 and just take best player available rather that's an edge or a wide receiver tight end.. maybe even the best safety or corner.

[RWJ]

2 hours ago, bakedtater1 said:

I'm just dying to know what's going on in that office right now.. Jay gruden's already said he doesn't want a QB to groom and wants a QB ready to go.. does the front office want a quarterback at that number 15 spot to have for keenum? Colt? to groom..please Redskins stay put at 15 and just take best player available rather that's an edge or a wide receiver tight end.. maybe even the best safety or corner.

Trade down and get more picks, man.  We need them IF no QB is drafted.  Then start selecting the BPA.

[bakedtater1]

32 minutes ago, RWJ said:

Trade down and get more picks, man.  We need them IF no QB is drafted.  Then start selecting the BPA.

If wishes were fishes..

[MartinC]

 

[JoggingGod]

I woke hope to get a mid round pick back but 15 for Rosen isn’t a bad idea. It’s cheaper than trading up.

[CapsSkins]

#15 for Rosen and a 3rd?