kleese

Official 2018 Flex Scheduling and Playoff Tracker Thread

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1 hour ago, JSSkinz said:

Conference win percentage is before common opponents for the Wildcard scenario, this info is from ESPN and not from the playoff machine, I don't use that, I just do the math myself.

 

TO BREAK A TIE FOR THE WILD-CARD TEAM
If it is necessary to break ties to determine the two wild-card teams from each conference, the following steps will be taken.
1. If the tied teams are from the same division, apply division tiebreaker.
2. If the tied teams are from different divisions, apply the following steps.

Two teams
1. Head-to-head, if applicable.
2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.

 

ESPN

http://www.espn.com/nfl/news/story?page=tiebreakers

 

Same rules at NFL.com

https://www.nfl.com/standings/tiebreakingprocedures

 

 

But it says it right there.... if the wild card teams are tied you first apply the division tie breaker if they are from the same division. 

 

I think this now goes back to me being correct initially and confused by the glitch in the playoff machine. 

 

Bottom line according to what’s been laid out in front of us, we will NOT win a tie-breaker with the Eagles. In this case it means if we lose to the Titans we need Philly to lose to Houston in order to still be able to pass them week 17.

 

Now, amazingly we could lose the Eagles could win and we STILL could potentially be alive going into Week 17, but at that point we’d need the Seahawks and Vikings to both lose this week and then both lose again week 17. 

 

This has to be right, right? 

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16 minutes ago, kleese said:

Now, amazingly we could lose the Eagles could win and we STILL could potentially be alive going into Week 17, but at that point we’d need the Seahawks and Vikings to both lose this week and then both lose again week 17. 

 

This has to be right, right? 

1

 

Yep, that's right...and I think I originally counted the two games that the Skins and Eagles played against each other in the common games...or something lol...I realized that there can't be more than 12 common games, but we were all assuming 14 common games.

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42 minutes ago, kleese said:

But it says it right there.... if the wild card teams are tied you first apply the division tie breaker if they are from the same division. 

Damn, after reading it more carefully I think you're right. 

 

The way I originally read it is that you apply the division record, I'm a dumbass.

 

So with his scenario of them beating the Texans and us losing to the Titans, they would only have 6 common loses and we would have 8.

 

If they lose to the Texans and we beat the Titans we will each have 7 common losses and it goes to conference win %.

 

 

Edited by JSSkinz

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13 hours ago, JSSkinz said:

Damn, after reading it more carefully I think you're right. 

 

The way I originally read it is that you apply the division record, I'm a dumbass.

 

So with his scenario of them beating the Texans and us losing to the Titans, they would only have 6 common loses and we would have 8.

 

If they lose to the Texans and we beat the Titans we will each have 7 common losses and it goes to conference win %.

 

 

You all made this so much more complicated then need be. There is no bug in the playoff generator.  but here is another one you can use.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/upshot/nfl-playoff-picture.html

 

End of day - If we beat eagles but eagles and us both lose this weekend -We do beat time in a tiebreaker. In fact -if we beat the eagles - there is no way we dont finish higher seed them them.  

Both would have a 4-4 Division record.

Both would have 7 loses in common game

We would be 7-5 in Conference games (we are 6-5 now) and they would be 5-7 (They are 5-6 now). 

 

Thats it.

The Eagles are of no concern to us in the playoff chase. We beat them we pass them. We lose to them we are out.  

 

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12 minutes ago, Cooleyfan1993 said:

@TMK9973 I’m curious how the redskins (or the eagles for that matter) could end up with a 4-4 DIVISION record (record in the NFC East) if we only play 6 division games...🤔 

Fat fingers. :)

3-3

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1 hour ago, TMK9973 said:

 

End of day - If we beat eagles but eagles and us both lose this weekend -We do beat time in a tiebreaker. In fact -if we beat the eagles - there is no way we dont finish higher seed them them.  

 

 

If we beat the Eagles and both the Eagles and Skins lose this weekend, there won't be a tiebreaker. Skins would be 8-8 and the Eagles would be 7-9.

 

 

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So... we got it worked out yet?  Lol.  

 

(no, I don’t want it rehashed... too much chance of an error that leads to another round of correcting posts :))

 

 

not at all judging BTW, it’s weirdly complicated this go round

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2 hours ago, skinny21 said:

not at all judging BTW, it’s weirdly complicated this go round

I made it more complicated than it needed to be, the NFL uses a different tiebreaking scenario for 2 teams tied within a division than they do for 2 teams that are tied and not in the same division.

 

When 2 teams are tied and from the same division you use common opponents win% as a tiebreaker before you use conference win percentage, it's the inverse when its 2 teams tied that are not in the same division.

 

If you're looking at a tiebreaker with Philly all you have to know is that both teams are currently 5-7 in common games, Philly could move ahead of us in that tiebreaker if they win this week and we lose to the Titans but if Philly loses this week and we beat the Titans then we will have the better common opponents win % tiebreaker.  If both teams lose then we are both tied at 5-8 in common opponents win %.

 

If we're both tied in common opponents win % going into week 17 then Philly has to beat us or they are done because it would fall to the next tiebreaker which is conference win % and we are 1 game better than Philly so we would win in that scenario.

 

Seattle (vs Cards, vs Chiefs) and the Cowboys (vs Bucs, @ Giants) losing their last 2 games is wishful thinking and it's doubtful the Vikes lose to the Lions this week.

 

Like I said a couple pages back just win the last 2 and hope that the Vikes lose to Chicago in week 17 and we're in, that's our best path.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited by JSSkinz
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As an example of what I cited the other day, if you look at the playoffpredictors.com site, it will show the correct results (Eagles win head-to-head tiebreak, Panthers win a three-way tiebreak) for an 8-8 tie, with the Redskins beating the Eagles in the finale. The graphics on that site aren't as cool as ESPN's, but it is more accurate.

 

Of course, if the Redskins win tomorrow, none of that will matter. 

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1 hour ago, Franklin60 said:

As an example of what I cited the other day, if you look at the playoffpredictors.com site, it will show the correct results (Eagles win head-to-head tiebreak, Panthers win a three-way tiebreak) for an 8-8 tie, with the Redskins beating the Eagles in the finale. The graphics on that site aren't as cool as ESPN's, but it is more accurate.

 

Of course, if the Redskins win tomorrow, none of that will matter. 

Wait, are you saying the Panthers would win a tiebreaker with the Skins?  

Edited by skinny21

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8 hours ago, skinny21 said:

Wait, are you saying the Panthers would win a tiebreaker with the Skins?  

 

They would. If it was a three way with Skins-Eagles-Panthers, Carolina would get the nod. You first break the division tie which pits Eagles-Panthers; and the Panthers win that based on head to head win over Philly. 

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Today is essentially a playoff game for the Skins.

 

said another way, 

PALOFFS ARE NOW!

 

I can’t believe that is now almost 15 years old.  If I remember it was from the 2005 season.  Sigh. 

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1 hour ago, kleese said:

 

They would. If it was a three way with Skins-Eagles-Panthers, Carolina would get the nod. You first break the division tie which pits Eagles-Panthers; and the Panthers win that based on head to head win over Philly. 

Fair enough, and thanks.  Just seems strange that a team we beat holds a tiebreaker over us.  But.. thems the rules I guess.  :)

 

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well...****. that loss all but eliminates us from the playoff race. if it wasn't over yet, theres realistically no chance, at 8-8. Guess I'll be rooting for Lions and Texans tomorrow, and us and the Bears next weekend. that has us facing the bears in wildcard weekend. yes, I know we would get destroyed by the bears, or anyone else honestly, even if any of that does happen, but **** it, I want to get another weekend to see my team play, so I'll be cheering for the .001% chance.

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Let's face it, we'll be ending the season at 7-9 next weekend. Since there's no chance, even though we can pretend there is, I'm hoping for the Vikings and Texans to win tomorrow. Rooting for the Lions only helps the Eagles get in. Chances are the Eagles will beat us and the Bears could win over the Vikes. If the Vikes lose 2, the Eagles are in. Since we're not going in, neither are the Eagles.

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5 minutes ago, Skins8989 said:

If Minnesota & Seattle both go 1-1 in the next two games, wouldn't us & Philly both be out?

I think that's correct...I think at this point, we can get in at 8-8 by beating philly and either of Vikings OR Seahawks finish 0-2. don't need both to, just 1. 

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15 minutes ago, Skins8989 said:

If Minnesota & Seattle both go 1-1 in the next two games, wouldn't us & Philly both be out?

 

Not if Philly wins the next 2. Seattle will still win over Philly if they go 1-1 and Philly goes 2-0. Seattle beats Philly by 1 conference game even if Seattle loses to Arizona. 

Edited by BleedBNG

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Our loss obviously takes catching Dallas off the table. That’s done.

 

What we need to stay alive heading into Week 17 is for two of the three teams (Philly, Seattle, Minnesota) to lose. Any combo of two of three, or obviously all three, and we stay alive. If two or more win, we are done officially. 

 

The best case scenario is all three lose tomorrow; then that would set up Week 17 where we’d need to win and we’d need EITHER a Seattle or Minnesota loss to get in. 

 

And sure if I controlled the universe I’d pick those three to lose, giving us a not-so-far-fetched chance next Sunday. But there is definitely another part of me that just wants it to end now. 

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10 hours ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

Today is essentially a playoff game for the Skins.

 

said another way, 

PALOFFS ARE NOW!

 

I can’t believe that is now almost 15 years old.  If I remember it was from the 2005 season.  Sigh. 

Well, Paloffs was then, now they’re gone.

 

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Just now, kleese said:

Our loss obviously takes catching Dallas off the table. That’s done.

 

What we need to stay alive heading into Week 17 is for two of the three teams (Philly, Seattle, Minnesota) to lose. Any combo of two of three, or obviously all three, and we stay alive. If two or more win, we are done officially. 

 

The best case scenario is all three lose tomorrow; then that would set up Week 17 where we’d need to win and we’d need EITHER a Seattle or Minnesota loss to get in. 

 

And sure if I controlled the universe I’d pick those three to lose, giving us a not-so-far-fetched chance next Sunday. But there is definitely another part of me that just wants it to end now. 

Still not accurate. I know there was a lot of back and forth, but if Seattle loses, we are still alive even if min and Philly wins

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17 minutes ago, TMK9973 said:

Still not accurate. I know there was a lot of back and forth, but if Seattle loses, we are still alive even if min and Philly wins

 

I thought we cleared this up. If Minny wins, we can’t catch them period. 

 

And we’ve established already that if the Eagles and Redskins both finish 8-8 that the Eagles win the tie-breaker. Even if Seattle was also 8-8 the division tie breaker gets broken first. 

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Since we can't finish better than .500 I shouldn't care, but I'll ask anyway: the best seed we could potentially have if we did somehow make it is #6, correct? And if that is the case, there's no way we could play the winner of our division in the first round, especially since we would need help from Chicago in week 17. Is that also correct?

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