The Saga Continues: Taiwan Independence.

[OURYEAR#56]

Ok, I'll admit I'm ignorant about Taiwan's independence. I thought America would endorse Taiwan's Independence. Can somebody tell me why China is ruling a country that is suppose to be a democracy. Are we scared of China?

[jbooma]

Everyone is scared of China. The have the largest army and are still communist.

[jbooma]

However we have Yuo Ming so don't see them doing anything stupid just yet

[OURYEAR#56]

That's what I'm saying. How can we let a communist country rule a democracy

[TD_washingtonredskins]

I don't know much about the situation either. But my guess would be that we're picking our battles. I don't think we feel there is any need to go and pick a fight with a nation like China.

The Washington Times a few years back predicted that we would have a 21st century Cold War with China.

Anyway, I'm sure we give China our respectful opinion on the matter but this wouldn't be an Iraq or Afghanastan situation...

[redman]

I agree that China's the next Cold War. Hopefully it remains that way.

The Chinese Nationalists fled to Taiwan when they lost the civil war to Mao Tse Tung and the communists in the late '40's for control of mainland China. The Nationalists continued to claim that they are the rightful rulers of China; the Communists continue to claim that Taiwan is part of a China under their rule. Hence the "One China" policy.

It's a blatant lie that everyone is willing to repeat to avoid conflict, especially because China has made it clear that they will go to war against Taiwan if the latter declares independence. We're between a rock and a hard place because we certainly don't want a war in an important economic area for us, and yet we also don't want to undercut a democratic (sort of) ally that we've supported.

So for 50+ years we've had this uneasy peace, with both sides staring each other down and from time to time engaging in colorful rhetoric, and sometimes more provocative actions.

[Iggle in Exile]

I’m writing off of the top of my head so I may make some factual errors, but basically, since the end of the Chinese civil war there has been general agreement that there ‘was only one China’. Until Nixon switched recognition (I believe it was Nixon anyway), we held the line that yes, there was one China, but that the true government was in Taiwan. When we recognized the PRC, we basically said that the true government was in Beijing, but that we only supported peaceful measures that brought about reunification. The PRC’s policy is that if Taiwan declared independence, it would invade Taiwan.

The Chinese use the US Civil War as an analogy for their feelings about Taiwan, although it’s not a good one. First, Taiwan has been a successful, functioning state for 50 years; the South never was. Second, the South freely entered into our confederation.

There was a good article in this past weekend’s Wash Post about it. You can find it here:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A40192-2003Dec5.html

In my opinion, the war of ideas supports Taiwan. Since the civil war, China has gone through bloodbaths and leaders (who admittedly have become less psychotic since Mao.) Meanwhile Taiwan turned itself into a capitalistic democracy – why would they want to compromise their rights and freedoms for the whims of a bunch of unelected officials? Further, and I’d have to go back and research this, but I believe that Taiwan (or Formosa) has traditionally been independent and only came under Chinese control in the late 18th century (I’ll have to look this up).

Interestingly, there is disagreement that if the PRC invaded Taiwan, it would easily conquer it. I’ll have to dig around some, but there was an article in the journal International Security that argued that invading Taiwan would be a formidable challenge.

OK, found it. http://www.uky.edu/RGS/Patterson/desch/Readings/04-17/04-17_ohanlon_china.html

Here’s a different perspective: http://carlisle-www.army.mil/usawc/Parameters/01autumn/Russell.htm

[@DCGoldPants]

well, hopefully this stays quiet for awhile. Our Military is already spread way too thin for this to just be added.

[Kilmer17]

Unfortunately, I dont think it will take too many men to handle that situation if it goes bad. One or two with expensive keys will be all it takes.

[redman]

Interesting links, BodyBag.

[@DCGoldPants]

Originally posted by Kilmer17

Unfortunately, I dont think it will take too many men to handle that situation if it goes bad. One or two with expensive keys will be all it takes.

Lets hope you're very wrong.

[OURYEAR#56]

I'm not following your logic Kilmer. Do you think this is all over money? Do you this a few Bentleys would quiet down the situation?

[Iggle in Exile]

Redman, glad to be o' service.

[Kilmer17]

I mean I think it will become a nuclear situation if it goes by most of the models I have seen.

Bottom line is that the US will NOT allow China to bomb Taiwan without responding in kind.

[OURYEAR#56]

So this situation could spark a nuclear war? I see. Wow, how did we let China get so much power? Did they sneak under our radar?

[Sarge]

Originally posted by OURYEAR#56

I'm not following your logic Kilmer. Do you think this is all over money? Do you this a few Bentleys would quiet down the situation?

This situation is what is going to get us into it with China. I posted a bunch of links for Luckydevi in another post a few days ago, but here they are again.

http://globalsecurity.org/military/ops/taiwan.htm

China is gearing up to take us on over this. I hope we are taking this as seriously.

OY, I believe Kilmer was talking about the keys to some nukes. The only problem is that the last adminstration has made it possible for the ChiComs to perfect their nukes and land them on the Wet coast of the US, if not other places in the US.

[OURYEAR#56]

I've heard that China could pose a threat to the US. Do you think the Iraqi War part 2 was suppose to be a deterent. I remember when we first squared off against Hussien, the world was in aw of our technology. How can we put the fear of God into China, or is it to late?

[redman]

The saving grace in this will hopefully be the growing freedom and economic prosperity in China, and the realization by the populace that they're only getting part of what they could have in a freer and more open society. It's why we continue to try and engage China, even as they continue to jerk us around on things like Taiwan, manufacturing piracy and trademark infringement, labor violations, free trade, etc.

[redman]

OY, China's not a threat to us at present in an unprovoked manner. Even if their missiles could at present reach our West Coast, they won't fire them preemptively because they'd get nuked.

Their conventional military is not at present any credible match for ours straight up, and they know it.

Taiwan is a dilemma for us because we are weighing our direct military involvement in a major conflict not to directly protect ourselves, but to protect an ally. Worse, and unlike for example Kuwait, that ally could well be the one to have provoked the conflict. We'll be asking ourselves, "Is it worth it?"

[Iggle in Exile]

So this situation could spark a nuclear war? I see. Wow, how did we let China get so much power? Did they sneak under our radar?

They didn't sneak under our radar; they are a sovereign country of a billion people. They've had the bomb for years. The military guys on these forums would be much more knowledgeable about this than me, but from what I've read, we spend LOTS more on defense than they do - problem is, we project power all over the world, while the Chinese concern themselves with their backyard.

A couple of points to keep in mind: first, this could also be bluffing by the Chinese to get Chen off of his independence kick. Second, there are some indications that China is becoming a less bombastic and bullying neighbor. Third, invading Taiwan would have severe economic and political repercussions. Fourth, there is always some possibility that someday the two countries could develop a loose political framework that is really vague and such, but it would leave the Taiwanese alone while the PRC can still claim to have achieved unification.

Who knows.

[shadowman]

2004-2008: Operation Clean Sweep

Shortly upon taking office in 2004, Bush's PCS will move rapidly on a number of fronts. Unbound by the constraints of campaigning, the real work of the Bush PCS will begin. First, the Bush PCS will continue to rupture federal and state programs that assist the middle and lower classes of America and their culture and environment. The US Supreme Court will eliminate a woman's right to choose. Constitutional amendments banning gay rights, women's rights and civil rights/affirmative action will be proposed by the Bush PCS and, in all likelihood, will succeed. An additional amendment to the constitution concerning military rule in case of an attack on US soil by any foreign individual or state will be added easing the way towards military rule in America.

While the nation debates these issues, Bush will quietly issue an edict supporting a return to the draft. The massive military campaign that is sure to follow will require millions of US military personnel that can only be had forcibly through conscription. As early as the Christian holiday of Christmas in December 2004, or more likely, the Christian Easter Holiday in April 2005 (celebrating the resurrection of Jesus Christ), the Bush PCS will attack. Syria will be attacked by American-British-Israeli coalition forces, primarily from its Western, Southern and Eastern flanks. There will be no prolonged bombing campaign in this operation. The air campaign will be concomitant with an amphibious assault on Syria's Western shores, accompanied by a land invasion from the Southern and Eastern flanks. The forces of the American led coalition will crush the dilapidated Syrian military within 10 business days.

The Palestinians will likely be granted a piece of the former Syria and will be relocated there by the US and Israel.

Simultaneously with invasion of Syria, Iran will be subjected to an extraordinary air and cruise missile assault led by American forces. This operation will include additional military elements from the Turkish and Afghani military who will have been promised a piece of Iran once it is defeated. A withering air assault will come from the Northwest through Turkey, from the West from US controlled Iraq, from the East from the air bases in Afghanistan, and from carrier groups and cruise missile launching submarines, to include an Israeli submarine, in the Persian Gulf. Within 60 business days, Iran will be defeated by US-led forces. And should Iran successfully test a nuclear weapon prior to that time, the Bush PCS will accelerate its timetable for attack opting to use tactical nuclear weapons to take out Iranian nuclear weaponry.

Since the Bush PCS believes that North Korea cannot be allowed to exist, it will attack North Korea simultaneously with its invasion of Syria and Iran. China will have been dealt with during back channel negotiations. The price China will demand of not intervening against the US invasion (Chinese troop strength at 100 million) will be Taiwan. The Bush PCS will turn a blind eye to China's takeover of Taiwan, which had become a bad US hangover from the Cold War.

The US will be glad to rid itself of support for Taiwan. Vladimir Putin may sign on to the US-led invasion and commit Russian troops which will incur from the Northeastern portion of North Korea's border. Participation with Bush in this effort would allow Russia basing rights on the Eastern shores of North Korea. The US and South Korean military will attempt to neutralize the North Korean military with low yield tactical nuclear weapons which will be used primarily along the heavily fortified Southern border. This conflict will see the massive deployment of ordnance with calmative agents meant to literally put to sleep the North Korean military. An electromagnetic pulse weapon or weapons will be used to knock out North Korea's command and control infrastructure. Ground operations will be simultaneous with air and sea assault but the conflict will rage on for 12 business quarters as weather and terrain complicate the US led attack.

Meanwhile in Colombia, US military forces will openly engage in combat against the FARC and indigenous peoples movements there. Over in Venezuela, the US will finally topple Hugo Chavez (if not prior to 2004). The aged leaders of Cuba and Libya will be no match for the Bush PCS, and they will likely be toppled in US led coups. In each of these cases, Bush PCS friendly dictators will be installed and US corporations will quickly move to capitalize each of those societies, just as they are doing in Iraq.

All of this, it seems, is a fait accompli.

John Stanton

[Sarge]

Is there something wrong with this? This sounds like Sarge's World!

[SkinInsite]

I'm pretty sure Taiwan have developed nukes along with Isreal. So there's a chance Taiwan saying eff it and get a couple of F-16s to one way it all the way to Bejing.

[DjTj]

Alright, since I come from a family that is Taiwanese for several generations, I suppose I'm obligated to try to clear up at least the historical issues...

Taiwan was largely untouched by the Chinese emporers for most of history and was populated by a pacific islander population probably ethnically closer to filipinos or malaysians. The Spanish and the Dutch both established colonies on Taiwan in the early 17th century.

When the Ming dynasty lost Beijing in 1644 and the Manchurians took over mainland China, establishing the Qing Dynasty, many Han Chinese (the traditional ethnic Chinese people) fled to the island of Taiwan. In 1664, remnants of the Ming army arrived and used Taiwan as their last staging point but in 1683, Ming finally submitted to Qing control.

The influx of Han Chinese in the 17th century overwhelmed the native Taiwanese population and the dominant language in Taiwan became a dialect carried over from Fujian province, which today is generally referred to as "Taiwanese".

At the end of the Sino-Japanese war in 1895, China gave Taiwan to Japan and the Japanese instituted a colonial government. Taiwanese children were taught Japanese and the island lived under Japanese control until the end of WW2, building many of the foundations for an industrial economy.

Meanwhile on the mainland, Dr. Sun Yat-Sen established the Republic of China in 1911, ending the Qing Dynasty. A Nationalist party known as the Kuomingtang (KMT) emerged and became the dominant political force in the new republic. After Sun Sat-Sen's death in 1925, Chiang Kai-Shek, commander-in-chief of the Chinese Army, rose to power as the KMT leader. However, Mao Zedong was already rising to power as a Communist leader during that time and a civil war was just starting between Chiang and Mao when Japan invaded China in 1931. The Nationalists and the Communists joined forces to fight the Japanese between 1937 and and 1945, but as soon as WW2 ended, China returned to Civil War.

Chiang Kai-Shek is the leader of China that appears in photos with Churchill, Truman, and Stalin as the Allied victors. Chiang was the Chinese contact for Yalta and Potsdam and the creation of the United Nations.

However, Chiang lost China to Mao in 1949, fleeing to Taiwan. In December 1949, he proclaimed Taipei, Taiwan the temporary capital of the Republic of China. Mao founded the People's Republic of China on the mainland and did not pursue Chiang to Taiwan.

For the Taiwanese people, 1949 saw the Japanese occupation replaced by a Nationalist occupation. Rather than being taught in Japanese, Taiwanese children were taught in Mandarin Chinese, the language of Beijing.

The Republic of China held the UN Security Council Seat until 1971, when all diplomatic relations with Taiwan began to be transferred to the communist China. In the United States, this was marked by Nixon's 1972 visit.

The longstanding "One China" policy caused Taiwan to lose almost all diplomatic ties during the 1970's, creating a country in the same diplomatic isolation that China suffered priod to that time. However, Taiwan's economy, having benefitted from Japanese influence and U.S. assistance, grew significantly and at a pace much faster than that of mainland China, keeping Taiwan effectively independent and still relatively influential.

Basically, as long as there has been a "One China" policy, there has really been two China's. When Taiwan had the diplomatic clout, they didn't want to share with China and now that China has the power, they're not doing Taiwan any favors. The balance of power is now very far on the mainland side now, so the situation is really unlike anything else in world politics.

Within Taiwan, the Nationalist government ran a one-party democracy for most of the 20th century, slowly building a representative democracy. In 1996, Taiwan ran its first democratic Presidential election, in which the incumbent KMT President was easily elected.

However, the 2000 election became hotly contested, when a faction of the KMT split off to form the New Party. A third party emergened, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP). It's important to understand a racial undercurrent in all this, as the KMT has always been controlled by northern Chinese people who came with Chiang Kai-Shek to Taiwan in 1949, who speak Mandarin. The DPP has attracted more of the original Taiwanese population, who speak Taiwanese.

Chen Shui-Bian, the DPP candidate, ran on an anti-corruption platform, painting the KMT candidate Lien Chan as the slave of an old political monopoly. The New Party threw its support behind another KMT defector, James Soong, and with the old Nationalists split, Chen won the election.

Soong later formed his own party, the People First Party. There is also a Green Party and a right-wing Taiwan Solidarity Union, which favors complete independence.

The 3 largest parties are the New Party, KMT, and DPP, with the DPP being the most pro-indepence and the New Party the most pro-unification.

What's going on now is that President Chen wants to hold a referendum in Taiwan about whether or not China should stop pointing missiles at Taiwan. Of course he knows that it will come out 99% in favor of not having missiles pointed at Taiwan but he's using it as a political stunt to move the country more pro-independence and thus helping his re-election bid. China has an interest in keeping the DPP out of power, so they want to scare Chen into backing down or, alternatively, scare the voters into voting against the referendum, weakening the DPP politically.

...Wow, I knew more about that than I thought, although I had to do a good amount of research. I hope that's helpful.

[Riggo-toni]

Years ago my father was involved with the Free Formosa movement (the original name for Taiwan). From what I remember, I believe the Taiwanese dialect was called Foocanese (sp?)

Sadly, we are largely responsible for creating the disastrous One-China policy - it was a by-product of the Cold War. As DjTj pointed out, Taiwan was an independent country with its own ethnic identity before it was conquered by the Kuomingtang. Chiang Kai-Shek neutralised the existing government by inviting all the government leaders in for peace talks, and the lining them up against a wall and gunning them all down. Sweet guy.

It was Carter who actually recognized Red China as China, though it was Nixon's trip which began the process. Nixon approached the Chinese as a counterweight to the USSR. In particular, he threatened closer relations with China if the USSR's violations of the S.A.L.T. missile treaty became excessive.

The commie mainlanders now threaten Taiwan because they don't want to lose face. In their culture, this is like being a Cardinal faced with excommunication, or a jihadist accused of heresy or cowardice. Everyone knows these are really 2 countries, but noone in Red China wants to be though of as the guy who "lost" Taiwan.

If we'd had a little more foresight, maybe Carter could have recognized 2 countries and admitted the One-China policy was a fallacy. Then the commies could have saved face, we would have suffered at worst a very mild embarassment that everyone would have soon forgotten, and the mainlanders wouldn't be so obsessed with keeping up their tired party line. :doh: