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2019 Comprehensive Draft Thread


stevemcqueen1

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10 minutes ago, JSSkinz said:

When this team impulse drafts it never works out well and that's probably true for most of the league, we can't afford to give away draft picks unless we're 99% sure the QB will be the answer. 

 

There too many other holes on the team and the following 2 drafts could have generational type QB's who would actually be worth sacrificing picks to obtain.

 

I am totally into waiting for the 2020 draft.  But I am trying to brainstorm with the concept that they are going for it in this draft because that's what I keep hearing.     So I am not riding with what I want to happen but what's likely to happen.  And with that hand, what's best case scenario?

 

Shanny had it right in 2011 when even though he needed a QB he didn't force it.   He skipped Gabbert and Ponder, etc.  

 

So for me I'd hate it even more if we end up taking our own version of Christian Ponder likes lets say Daniel Jones at #15 because even if you aren't losing trade capital -- you are still going to waste a few years to see if he's going to pan out versus trading up for someone you really believe in big.    So if they love a dude and have to give up some draft capital but its not an insane amount to get a guy that they love, I'd rather that happen out of those 2 scenarios.

 

Losing draft capital is bad.  But waiting on a QB who is never going to pan out is almost as bad.

 

I think something is going down in this draft whether we like it or not.  

 

 

 

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7 minutes ago, KillBill26 said:

And this is exactly why the Redskins have sucked during the Dan Snyder era.  I'm hoping our fanbase can send the message to him that splashy, short-sighted moves won't win us over, it will only make us more angry.  If he truly wants to win the fan base over, hire an experienced personnel guy with a long-term vision.  Crazy idea, I know.

 

I agree.  

 

I think best case scenario for those who want them to wait for 2020 and not force things this year is they take a QB in the 2nd-4th round.  I don't think you are married to a QB in that round where you'd feel compelled to skip drafting one in 2020.  I think they are going 5-11 or so next year where they will be in a better shot to get a QB and with less competition because there will be less teams in all likelihood needing a QB. 

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23 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Shanny had it right in 2011 when even though he needed a QB he didn't force it.   He skipped Gabbert and Ponder, etc.  

 

 

I think that's a great analogy to our current situation this year.  I think we can all agree Haskins is not dropping to us at 15, so I hope they don't reach for a guy who isn't going be a franchise QB, at the expense of a first-round talent that can help this team for years.  Kerrigan didn't work out too bad for us.

 

Also, big shout out to @Skinsinparadise, @stevemcqueen1, and @clskinsfan, among others, for all their hard work and contributions to this threat.  As a big college football fan who gets excited for the draft, but someone who does not see things from a scout's perspective, all this info is much appreciated.

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So, assuming none of the top guys (Bosa, Allen, Oliver, and Williams) falls and the top qbs are gone - Haskins, Murray and Lock, I think attempting to trade back would make sense.  Might not be doable (finding a partner), but I’m thinking there would be a number of prospects available that we would have been happy with at 15.  Polite, Sweat or Ferrell, Murphy or Baker, Ford, Risner or J. Williams, Brown, Metcalf or even Samuels, Hockenson or Fant, etc.

 

I’m really liking the talent that should be available in the 2nd and 3rd, and I think it’s likely some of those guys fall to the 4th.  Of course, we also have a ton of holes, so adding a pick or picks in that range would be helpful (especially if we plan on using one on a qb).  

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36 minutes ago, skinny21 said:

So, assuming none of the top guys (Bosa, Allen, Oliver, and Williams) falls and the top qbs are gone - Haskins, Murray and Lock, I think attempting to trade back would make sense.  Might not be doable (finding a partner), but I’m thinking there would be a number of prospects available that we would have been happy with at 15.  Polite, Sweat or Ferrell, Murphy or Baker, Ford, Risner or J. Williams, Brown, Metcalf or even Samuels, Hockenson or Fant, etc.

 

I’m really liking the talent that should be available in the 2nd and 3rd, and I think it’s likely some of those guys fall to the 4th.  Of course, we also have a ton of holes, so adding a pick or picks in that range would be helpful (especially if we plan on using one on a qb).  

 

If we trade our first for either a 2nd/3rd this year and another first next year, we'll be in excellent position to get the QB we want next year (if we finish with the #10 or #11 pick for the 2020 draft, we could package the 2 1sts for Tua or Fromm). If we suck enough to get Tua or Fromm with our own pick, we can use the other 1st on grabbing an elite WR prospect like a Jerry Jeudy

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2 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I agree.  

 

I think best case scenario for those who want them to wait for 2020 and not force things this year is they take a QB in the 2nd-4th round.  I don't think you are married to a QB in that round where you'd feel compelled to skip drafting one in 2020.  I think they are going 5-11 or so next year where they will be in a better shot to get a QB and with less competition because there will be less teams in all likelihood needing a QB. 

 

I dunno...2nd round is pretty high to take a QB, relatively speaking based on the position. Unless the Skins absolutely stink this season and are in a position to get one of the elite QB talents of the 2020 draft without trading up I doubt they'd draft a guy in the 2nd this year and then immediately turn around and give up the farm to move up for one next year. There would probably be plenty of teams looking to move up if next year's class is as QB rich as is expected, so even a relatively minor jump might cost and arm and a leg.

 

That or if the QB they get in the 2nd this draft was absolutely awful in camp/practice/etc and they were pretty sure he was a wasted pick.

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1 hour ago, method man said:

 

If we trade our first for either a 2nd/3rd this year and another first next year, we'll be in excellent position to get the QB we want next year (if we finish with the #10 or #11 pick for the 2020 draft, we could package the 2 1sts for Tua or Fromm). If we suck enough to get Tua or Fromm with our own pick, we can use the other 1st on grabbing an elite WR prospect like a Jerry Jeudy

 

I'd love it.  But judging by what some people are saying who cover the team -- I think am more likely going to go in the first round then them stacking picks from this year to next year.  Issue is this seems to be a season where Bruce and Jay are on the gun for win or else so I don't think they can buy themselves time with a wait for 2020 drill.

 

1 hour ago, skinny21 said:

So, assuming none of the top guys (Bosa, Allen, Oliver, and Williams) falls and the top qbs are gone - Haskins, Murray and Lock, I think attempting to trade back would make sense.  Might not be doable (finding a partner), but I’m thinking there would be a number of prospects available that we would have been happy with at 15.  Polite, Sweat or Ferrell, Murphy or Baker, Ford, Risner or J. Williams, Brown, Metcalf or even Samuels, Hockenson or Fant, etc.

 

I’m really liking the talent that should be available in the 2nd and 3rd, and I think it’s likely some of those guys fall to the 4th.  Of course, we also have a ton of holes, so adding a pick or picks in that range would be helpful (especially if we plan on using one on a qb).  

 

I am on board with this.  Only thing is it seems like whenever we trade back we regret it in retrospect.  JJ Watt. D. Lawrence. T Lockett, etc. 

3 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

I dunno...2nd round is pretty high to take a QB, relatively speaking based on the position. Unless the Skins absolutely stink this season and are in a position to get one of the elite QB talents of the 2020 draft without trading up I doubt they'd draft a guy in the 2nd this year and then immediately turn around and give up the farm to move up for one next year. There would probably be plenty of teams looking to move up if next year's class is as QB rich as is expected, so even a relatively minor jump might cost and arm and a leg.

 

Not sure, they'd have to give up the farm in 2020.  I think they will be much higher in the draft.

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21 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Not sure, they'd have to give up the farm in 2020.  I think they will be much higher in the draft.

 

Dunno, let's assume that Tua and Fromm continue their trajectories this coming season. Minus something unexpected they'd probably go #1 and #2 overall. Or at least probably be in the top 3 picks. Let's say we regress and finish 5-11 and have the #5-#7 overall pick, depending on SoS. If we were in love with one (or both) of those guys, we'd have to trade up to #1 or #2 to get him... and there's almost no way we'd be the only ones who wanted to do so. In 2012 to move up from #6 to #2 overall and get our QB we had to swap out our #6 pick and give up our 2nd round pick that year, then throw in 2 additional future 1st rounders.

 

So yeah, even if we sucked it could still cost a fortune...unless we REALLY sucked and ended up only winning a couple games and had a top 2 pick. But I think our OL (if they can stay even marginally healthy), running game, and defense will be good enough for at least 4-6 wins next year if we roll with McCoy. 

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11 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I'd love it.  But judging by what some people are saying who cover the team -- I think am more likely going to go in the first round then them stacking picks from this year to next year.  Issue is this seems to be a season where Bruce and Jay are on the gun for win or else so I don't think they can buy themselves time with a wait for 2020 drill.

Funny, I read his post and was about to type the same sort of response.  

11 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

 

I am on board with this.  Only thing is it seems like whenever we trade back we regret it in retrospect.  JJ Watt. D. Lawrence. T Lockett, etc. 

True.  As long as it’s hindsight though, whatever - every team misses on stars.  If it’s to pass on Oliver (or someone like that), then I think it might be a big mistake, because we need some (potentially) elite guys.  

11 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Not sure, they'd have to give up the farm in 2020.  I think they will be much higher in the draft.

I agree.  To be fair though (and I think this is far from likely), if they shore up a lot of their holes and are able to field a good D, a good rushing attack and solid pass pro, we might finish closer to the middle of the pack even with a middling qbs situation.  You’ve pointed out the opposite recently (and I tend to agree with it), but if he returns, Johnson will have a better handle on the system, Colt could play a bit more than we expect, a rookie could be competitive for us over a few games, etc...

If we filled out the D, added a good G, and added say Hockenson and a YAC type of receiver, we could field a good squad (minus the qb).  The latter two offensive weapons take some pressure off us needing Thompson, Reed and (to a lesser extent) Richardson to stay healthy.  I think your guess of 5 wins is a good one, but it sure would suck if we managed 7, lol.  

 

On the flip side to that, 7 wins, and a pretty young team, means we have a competitive group and could maybe better afford to trade up for a qb in 2020.  (of course we’d have to worry about replacing Williams, Kerrigan, AP, Norman, etc...)

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30 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

Dunno, let's assume that Tua and Fromm continue their trajectories this coming season. Minus something unexpected they'd probably go #1 and #2 overall. Or at least probably be in the top 3 picks. Let's say we regress and finish 5-11 and have the #5-#7 overall pick, depending on SoS. If we were in love with one (or both) of those guys, we'd have to trade up to #1 or #2 to get him... and there's almost no way we'd be the only ones who wanted to do so. In 2012 to move up from #6 to #2 overall and get our QB we had to swap out our #6 pick and give up our 2nd round pick that year, then throw in 2 additional future 1st rounders.

 

So yeah, even if we sucked it could still cost a fortune...unless we REALLY sucked and ended up only winning a couple games and had a top 2 pick. But I think our OL (if they can stay even marginally healthy), running game, and defense will be good enough for at least 4-6 wins next year if we roll with McCoy. 

 

It's a bit early to judge the off season.  But I'll just say I don't think its an accident that they finished 1-6 with the one win being beating barely Jax who had Cody Kessler playing QB.   One Vegas outlet just picked us having the 2nd worst team in the NFL in 2019. 

 

I think our O line is a paper tiger because i don't think its an accident that they've been banged up two years in a row.  Trent is aging and is missing games every year.  LG is a mess.  Chase is OK at center but nothing special.  Scherff is a beast.  Moses is often banged up and is a penalty machine.  If they stay healthy and draft a good LG then we are likely cooking but its not a given.

 

They might have the worst QB situation and worst passing weapon situation in the league.  The defense created turnovers early last year but their best playmaker in that regard is now gone.  Preston is likely gone, too.

 

I can see 5-11 but I don't think its crazy to see a 3-13 season. 

 

But regardless something has to give.  The odds are low that any QB from the 2nd round to below that will be a franchise QB.  I like Grier for example better than most and by that I mean maybe 20% shot or so he's a franchise QB and 80% chance he's more of a backup caliber in the Colt McCoy type of mode.  I get that there are exceptions and that the QBs picked lower in the draft succeed on occasion but the odds are heavily stacked against you. 

 

So at some point just like the Rams and Eagles did, if you have to trade up, trade up to get your guy.  As Finlay said recently the one upside of the Redskins striking out on RG3 is it lessened the price at least some as to trading up as to giving up multiple first rounders.  Trying to think has any team traded up and given up three first rounders post RG3 trade?

 

I'd take my chances in their shoes and draft a QB in 2020.  And if they fall a little short of being in position to take someone then trade up. 

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22 minutes ago, skinny21 said:

 

I agree.  To be fair though (and I think this is far from likely), if they shore up a lot of their holes and are able to field a good D, a good rushing attack and solid pass pro, we might finish closer to the middle of the pack even with a middling qbs situation.  You’ve pointed out the opposite recently (and I tend to agree with it), but if he returns, Johnson will have a better handle on the system, Colt could play a bit more than we expect, a rookie could be competitive for us over a few games, etc...

If we filled out the D, added a good G, and added say Hockenson and a YAC type of receiver, we could field a good squad (minus the qb).  The latter two offensive weapons take some pressure off us needing Thompson, Reed and (to a lesser extent) Richardson to stay healthy.  I think your guess of 5 wins is a good one, but it sure would suck if we managed 7, lol.  

 

On the flip side to that, 7 wins, and a pretty young team, means we have a competitive group and could maybe better afford to trade up for a qb in 2020.  (of course we’d have to worry about replacing Williams, Kerrigan, AP, Norman, etc...)

 

The off season is young so too early to tell but here is why I think its possible.  And while I get we got draft picks to improve this team so does every other team.

 

A.  Safety is weaker than last year and potentially much weaker.

B. Pass rush could be weaker if they lose Preston.  

C. For all the offense's injuries they weren't that good when they were healthy either

D. The defense was incredibly luck last year for injuries what if they aren't this time

E.  Jay has said Josh Johnson's lack of emergence from back up to starter is because of his inconsistency.  On that point, that Eagles game might not have been that big of an aberration.  Some say Johnson wasn't hot in practices with the Redskins so his performances in the first two games was a surprise (and thinking about those games he wasn't that hot).  Eagles had a sample size to prepare for Johnson and easily shot him down. 

F.  As much as I love Guice, its not uncommon for it to take 8 games or so for a RB coming off an ACL to emergence

G.  Bruce likes himself bargain basement FAs who are rarely game changers and we got a crap cap situation in additional to that. 

H.  As bad as our passing weapons were, we still might lose Crowder and Richardson has really only had one healthy year in his full career

I.   A healthy defense playing in the last 7 games against a weak schedule went 1-6 and could have easily gone 0-7

J.  With all the craziness this off season it feels like an obvious lame duck season for Jay-Manusky sometimes that vibe does filter to the team if the season starts slowly

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, HigSkin said:

With all this drafting a QB chatter I just hope they don't reach in desperation...

 

 

Agree, HigSkin.  IF there is one there at #15 or you need to move up a few spots giving up one of our 3rd round picks, then do it.

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2 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

The off season is young so too early to tell but here is why I think its possible.  And while I get we got draft picks to improve this team so does every other team.

Yep, absolutely.  What I’m saying next isn’t an attempt to argue we’ll be alright, or to rain down optimism (as I said, I agree with your belief we’re likely headed toward 5ish wins),  but rather to illustrate why we I think we could win more....

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A.  Safety is weaker than last year and potentially much weaker.

Sign Collins, draft a safety to compete with Nicholson.  

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B. Pass rush could be weaker if they lose Preston.  

Draft a guy - Polite or Sweat in the first, or Winovich or Gustin in the 2nd/3rd respectively.  

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C. For all the offense's injuries they weren't that good when they were healthy either

Agreed.  A good G, an all around TE (or at least a pass catching one with Sprinkle handling blocking duties), a YAC receiver, plus we get some guys back.  

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D. The defense was incredibly luck last year for injuries what if they aren't this time

This is an issue for sure.  I like our dline depth, and our corner depth is... interesting/young.  The drafted safety, plus Nicholson and Everett means we have some depth there.  Mason or SD become the backup with Rueben starting (or not - gonna be interesting to see how that position plays out).  

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E.  Jay has said Josh Johnson's lack of emergence from back up to starter is because of his inconsistency.  On that point, that Eagles game might not have been that big of an aberration.  Some say Johnson wasn't hot in practices with the Redskins so his performances in the first two games was a surprise (and thinking about those games he wasn't that hot).  Eagles had a sample size to prepare for Johnson and easily shot him down. 

Fair enough.  Forget Johnson then... whoever our 2nd/3rd qb is that takes his spot.  

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F.  As much as I love Guice, its not uncommon for it to take 8 games or so for a RB coming off an ACL to emergence

Hopefully we resign AP.  

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G.  Bruce likes himself bargain basement FAs who are rarely game changers and we got a crap cap situation in additional to that. 

Yeah, and we probably go this route again, especially if they want to address the holes before draft time.  My hope is we instead go for someone like Collins and re-signing AP, and then maybe bringing back McPhee or some cheap option at a position or two.  

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H.  As bad as our passing weapons were, we still might lose Crowder and Richardson has really only had one healthy year in his full career

There’s a handful of speedy receivers - some more well rounded than others sprinkled through the draft.  Add a pretty good (or very good) one and a TE and then we have returning guys.  

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I.   A healthy defense playing in the last 7 games against a weak schedule went 1-6 and could have easily gone 0-7

Better ILB play and corners Manusky trusts a bit more, plus we add a (hopefully better) pass rusher.  

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J.  With all the craziness this off season it feels like an obvious lame duck season for Jay-Manusky sometimes that vibe does filter to the team if the season starts slowly

 

Agreed.  It’s going to be interesting to see how it plays out.  I know I’m playing devils advocate above, but I’d say there’s a strong chance the FO completely blows it in FA and the draft because of the hunt/desperation for a qb and thinly spreading the cap around.  

 

I know that doesn’t sound bad to you as it means a high draft pick in 2020, but I’ve got a nightmare scenario brewing in my brain where we trade our 2nd and a 3rd (or more) to move up for Jones.  We keep Reed and Norman, and re-sign Crowder and Dix and some scrubs, blowing our FA dollars.  Our secondary is iffy again, we still mostly suck vs the run, our 3rd or 5th round guard doesn’t pan out, we don't re-sign AP, Perine or Kelley get a lot of snaps, and our rookie qb shows just enough that we don’t go for one in 2020 (even though we pick top 3 or 4).  That’s not even factoring in injuries, which we stand to have a lot of... again.  Ugh.  

 

Honestly, the above is part of why I like the idea of going for Will Grier.  He costs us less, we aren’t tied to him, and while the odds aren’t great that he lives up to his comp (Dalton), I think his ceiling is higher.  Maybe see if we can trade back in the first (maybe even twice, or for 2 additional mid round picks), and see what we can get among pass rusher, TE, G, WR, corner, and safety.  Take Grier late 1st (I know that’ll be seen as too early, but we get the 5th year option and to make sure we don’t lose out on him), draft Lindstrom and Campbell in the 2nd, Gardner (can play free safety or corner) and Gustin in the 3rd, Sills in the 4th and a TE like Mack, Sternberger, etc. in the 5th - assuming we land a 2nd and 4th at minimum for the trade back.  We improve the oline and secondary, take a big step forward in terms of passing weapons, and add a qb with potential.  

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If I would be in the FO I would not stress to much about the QB. We have Colt and should be able to find a backup and development guy. Drafting a guy to sit behind Colt next year and sit behind Smith in the year after makes no sense. 

 

We need instant improvement guys. Like a pass rusher who can take Preston Smith his spot. Or an ILB, WR, Safety. Plug him in and improve the team. Only issue I have with this class is that most plug-in players are dline guys. I kinda like our group now. 

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19 hours ago, Anselmheifer said:

A true ball hawking FS can also change a whole defense. I think Earl Thomas easily has the impact of a Von Miller. Overall though, I agree.  

 

On that note, Byron Murphy has been projecting in the mid 20's in every mock I've seen. He would be a steal there. Also, there look to be some good values in the secondary a little bit later. I would love a move back for Byron Murphy. 

 

I'm not sure that peak Earl Thomas can match the impact of peak Von Miller.  Miller was the most impactful player on the field for a Superbowl champion, and the best and most valuable player on and leader of one of the best defenses in recent memory--a unit that is still a top five defense despite attrition in their secondary and stack.  I think it comes down to the number of snaps where a premium edge player can make an impact that goes beyond replacement level impact.  My ballpark guess is something like 40 snaps a game where you're getting extra value.  For a safety, my guess would be like 10, even for the very best.  Competent safety play is so much easier to find because they're just playing zones and running alleys or playing deep the vast majority of a game.  This is going to offend the guys who used to play safety, but you know it's a much easier position to play physically and the body type to excel at safety is way more common than it is at edge rusher.

 

Now you could accept those numbers at face value and maybe win an argument that the extra value added in those 10 elite snaps > or at least = the extra value in the 40 edge snaps because interceptions tend to have such an enormous impact on games where as a good pressure may or may not win the rep for your defense.  But I'd counter by saying elite edge rushers cause quite a few turnovers too, generating fumbles and hurrying throws into coverage.  Also you can totally neutralize a DB's ability to change games with individual plays by not throwing at them, but even a constant double can't totally stop a rusher.

 

Agreed about Murphy.  That is tremendous value in that range, and it reinforces my sense that we should be thinking trade down if we're not going after Haskins or Murray.  Unless one of the really highly graded/regarded guys slides to us at 15 like what happened in 2017, a trade down that adds a day two pick AND still lets us take someone like Murphy nets us way more value than any other option.

 

My guess as to why Murphy isn't being more highly regarded is that he's getting dinged for his ectomorphic body type and he doesn't have the reputation of being a burner track guy.  You can see in the size of his joints and waist that he will never be bulky.  He doesn't look the part of a badass zone corner.  He reminds me of some of the really lanky guys who played rugby at my college who, paradoxically, hit the hardest on the team.  You have to kind of see it to believe it.

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8 hours ago, skinny21 said:

I know that doesn’t sound bad to you as it means a high draft pick in 2020, but I’ve got a nightmare scenario brewing in my brain where we trade our 2nd and a 3rd (or more) to move up for Jones.  

 

I could see that, too.  I got plenty of fears that they blow up the 2020 plan that I like.  Heck I think its 50-50 they do blow things up by trading 2020 picks.  And if they do it for Jones boy do I think they are underestimating the fans discontent.     That dude IMO is both a boring QB to watch and maybe the most boring QB personality I've ever seen.  It would be as lacking of pizzaz of any pick they can make.  Heck I think they'd get more buzz from Grier, T. Jackson, Rypien.

 

Not that I think buzz should be a determining factor but I am not in love with the player either.  Murray to me and to a lesser degree Haskins would be the ultimate hype move -- Jones would be the ultimate non-hype move. 

 

And this is me being negative nellie because this is always how I roll. I predicted 8-8 to 11-5 more or less three years in a row and predicted wins almost every game last year.  It feels different in 2019.  Not that I needed to hear the same from others to arrive at this point but ironically recently heard Finlay and Sheehan make a similar point to this.  

 

8 hours ago, skinny21 said:

 

Sign Collins, draft a safety to compete with Nicholson.  

 

 

I know you are playing devil's advocate but doubt this one happens.  Giants might tag him from what am reading and if not you likely have a bidding war for him and Bruce doesn't like bidding wars.  But if they do a splash signing agree this is the most likely one with the Collins Alabama background looming large to their interest. 

8 hours ago, skinny21 said:

Agreed.  A good G, an all around TE (or at least a pass catching one with Sprinkle handling blocking duties), a YAC receiver, plus we get some guys back.  

 

 

Agree their best shot to pull off some more wins now is a monster all around TE like Hockenson in the first, guard in the 2nd like Lindstrom and run the heck out of the ball.    Long-term I'd rather have a pass rusher like Polite but I don't think it would bring as immediate dividends if its a win now season as the TE-OG combo.   

 

8 hours ago, skinny21 said:

 

Fair enough.  Forget Johnson then... whoever our 2nd/3rd qb is that takes his spot.  

 

 

Can't see that 2nd-3rd round QB whomever that is hitting their stride in season 1. 

 

8 hours ago, skinny21 said:

 

Honestly, the above is part of why I like the idea of going for Will Grier.  He costs us less, we aren’t tied to him, and while the odds aren’t great that he lives up to his comp (Dalton), I think his ceiling is higher.  Maybe see if we can trade back in the first (maybe even twice, or for 2 additional mid round picks), and see what we can get among pass rusher, TE, G, WR, corner, and safety.  Take Grier late 1st (I know that’ll be seen as too early, but we get the 5th year option and to make sure we don’t lose out on him), draft 

 

Among what I'd call the fliers in this draft, I like Grier the most.  There are some draft geeks who I typically agree with who are unimpressed with Grier and that among other things make me pause.    But I like Grier over Jones.  

 

The process is still young but judging by buzz from the Senior Bowl I think now the odds are good that Grier will still be there with our 2nd round pick and for that matter Jones alas will fall to the #15 pick.   Having said that I don't think I've ever seen so many mixed reviews about where QBs are going to fall than I have this year.  Granted its still early. 

 

Judging by some of the posts on the board, I am more of a Murray guy than most but I do worry about his durability and fit to Jay's scheme. I'd be happy with Haskins and likely happy with Lock but not 100% sold.  I question whether anyone else is a franchise guy.  And to that point, I can take a QB I don't love like lets say Rypien in the third if it prevents them doing something dumb earlier in the draft.

 

 

 

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26 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

   That dude IMO is both a boring QB to watch and maybe the most boring QB personality I've ever seen. 

 

 

 

Kinda reminds me of a certain tb12 at the scouting combine... Boring ugly and slow..

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2 hours ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

I'm not sure that peak Earl Thomas can match the impact of peak Von Miller.  Miller was the most impactful player on the field for a Superbowl champion, and the best and most valuable player on and leader of one of the best defenses in recent memory--a unit that is still a top five defense despite attrition in their secondary and stack.  I think it comes down to the number of snaps where a premium edge player can make an impact that goes beyond replacement level impact.  My ballpark guess is something like 40 snaps a game where you're getting extra value.  For a safety, my guess would be like 10, even for the very best.  Competent safety play is so much easier to find because they're just playing zones and running alleys or playing deep the vast majority of a game.  This is going to offend the guys who used to play safety, but you know it's a much easier position to play physically and the body type to excel at safety is way more common than it is at edge rusher.

 

 

You may be right, but you are underselling the value of an elite FS. An elite FS like Earl thomas changes what you are able to do from a defensive schematic standpoint. You can blitz more aggressively. Play your corners more aggressively. Play a super big and physical SS, as the Seahawks did, without getting burned in the back end. A super talented FS can actually make an enormous impact on every play by changing the rest of what you are able to do with your defensive scheme and personnel. 

 

Also, a free safety can make a big impact by limiting big big passing plays. A few deep throws not made because of better coverage, or a few long passes not converted can change the course of a season, in which most teams play a lot of close games. Long passes not attempted is not a stat that is going to show up anywhere. Of course, a pass rusher can also limit these attempts. 

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My thoughts after watching the Senior Bowl...

 

Deebo Samuel is the real deal. He is NFL-ready. Crisp route running, knows how to get open. Big-bodied WR. 

 

Will Grier... looks more like a late Day 3 pick. His placement and mechanics leave much to be desired. 

 

Andy Isabella, WR, who the hell is this kid? 7 rec for 74 yards and a TD with 4.28 speed? Developmental Day 2 guy but certainly wouldn't hurt to have him on the field. Trains with legend Randy Moss.

 

One of my favorite players from the day was S, Nasir Adderly, 6ft 200lb. Easily made his way into the 2nd round and would be great value. He's fluid in space and has an eye for the ball. Ended up with 5 tackles and an INT. 

 

I didn't see any first round QB's as I initially thought in a down year for QB's. I stand by my initial thoughts although I think Lock and Jones gained some ground. I still believe Murray is the only first rounder out there and Haskins is borderline. They may be the only two starters to come out of this draft. Tyree Jackson, although he's humongous, was almost too big for his own good. His delivery is way too slow and his decision making was very poor. Huge project, if it ever works out.

 

Biggest winners as mentioned in here previously were Dalton Risner and Chris Lindstrom. Two anchors who are plug-and-play at the next level. 

 

DT, Khalen Saunders, should not be able to move the way he does, but he does it anyway while smiling. Although he's a bit of a project, you can't question the heart of this kid. He was tossing linemen, dominating the trenches. 

 

For the Redskins QB situation, guys I wouldn't touch are Grier, Sitdham, McSorley, Jackson, Minshew. Finley and Jones have the size but probably career backups. Lock can win you some games but I think unless you luck in to Murray or Haskins, then you go BPA for this draft. (hopefully Ed Oliver)

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48 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I could see that, too.  I got plenty of fears that they blow up the 2020 plan that I like.  Heck I think its 50-50 they do blow things up by trading 2020 picks.  And if they do it for Jones boy do I think they are underestimating the fans discontent.     That dude IMO is both a boring QB to watch and maybe the most boring QB personality I've ever seen.  It would be as lacking of pizzaz of any pick they can make.  Heck I think they'd get more buzz from Grier, T. Jackson, Rypien.

I’m not sure what more casual fans would think of Jones, after all, he’s at least (fairly consistently) mocked as a 1st round qb.  Does seem like ES is mostly aligned with you and I here though.  

48 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Not that I think buzz should be a determining factor but I am not in love with the player either.  Murray to me and to a lesser degree Haskins would be the ultimate hype move -- Jones would be the ultimate non-hype move. 

 

And this is me being negative nellie because this is always how I roll. I predicted 8-8 to 11-5 more or less three years in a row and predicted wins almost every game last year.  It feels different in 2019.  Not that I needed to hear the same from others to arrive at this point but ironically recently heard Finlay and Sheehan make a similar point to this.  

Yeah, I’ve mostly felt the same and now agree we’re probably having a down year this time.  Kind of amazing to me that the FO seems to still be where we were the last few years...

48 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

 

I know you are playing devil's advocate but doubt this one happens.  Giants might tag him from what am reading and if not you likely have a bidding war for him and Bruce doesn't like bidding wars.  But if they do a splash signing agree this is the most likely one with the Collins Alabama background looming large to their interest. 

Yeah, Collins is probably a pipe dream.  Maybe we could get by with Dix, or sign Mathieu (though I doubt he’d come given the connection to DJ) or another decent FA safety.  

48 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Agree their best shot to pull off some more wins now is a monster all around TE like Hockenson in the first, guard in the 2nd like Lindstrom and run the heck out of the ball.    Long-term I'd rather have a pass rusher like Polite but I don't think it would bring as immediate dividends if its a win now season as the TE-OG combo.

You might be right here.  I’m inclined to think they won’t go TE that high.  I’ll be curious to see how hard they push to re-sign Preston.  One good thing about signing the bargain basement FAs is the chance at comp picks.  It’s nice to have those extra picks this year.  

48 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

   

 

 

Can't see that 2nd-3rd round QB whomever that is hitting their stride in season 1. 

Meant whoever their backup is as I assume they’ll go with 3 this time (not including Alex).  Sanchez, Johnson, etc.  

48 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

 

Among what I'd call the fliers in this draft, I like Grier the most.  There are some draft geeks who I typically agree with who are unimpressed with Grier and that among other things make me pause.    But I like Grier over Jones.  

 

The process is still young but judging by buzz from the Senior Bowl I think now the odds are good that Grier will still be there with our 2nd round pick and for that matter Jones alas will fall to the #15 pick.   Having said that I don't think I've ever seen so many mixed reviews about where QBs are going to fall than I have this year.  Granted its still early. 

Grier may well be available with our 2nd (or even later), no idea.  If they like him though, I’d hope they don’t wait too long.  I agree about Grier over Jones, but I’m gonna leave it there, I’ve cluttered the board enough talking about Grier.  

48 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Judging by some of the posts on the board, I am more of a Murray guy than most but I do worry about his durability and fit to Jay's scheme. I'd be happy with Haskins and likely happy with Lock but not 100% sold.  I question whether anyone else is a franchise guy.  And to that point, I can take a QB I don't love like lets say Rypien in the third if it prevents them doing something dumb earlier in the draft.

 

 

 

Yeah, this is probably my number 2 ideal scenario.  A pricier FA qb or trading up for Jones are my least favorite options.  Followed by trading up for Lock or taking Jones at 15.  Then trading up for Murray.  I could live with Murray at 15 (though it’s a strange choice) or maybe trading up for Haskins (he’s the best bet, though I’m loathe to give up what I think it’ll take to get him.  

Grier, a mid round qb (though frankly, I wouldn’t spend one of our 3rds on any of the guys likely to be available... so using a 5th, or acquiring a 4th or another 3rd to use for a qb would be ok with me), or trading back for future picks are my favorite avenues.  

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21 minutes ago, Anselmheifer said:

  

You may be right, but you are underselling the value of an elite FS. An elite FS like Earl thomas changes what you are able to do from a defensive schematic standpoint. You can blitz more aggressively. Play your corners more aggressively. Play a super big and physical SS, as the Seahawks did, without getting burned in the back end. A super talented FS can actually make an enormous impact on every play by changing the rest of what you are able to do with your defensive scheme and personnel.  

 

I think schematic benefits of having a dominant FS aren't in being able to play your other players differently.  It's nice to be able to play single coverage with a safety on match up problem slot receivers with confidence, as well has have him hold his own on the outside when coverages get broken.  But you're still going to play a free safety in high zones the vast majority of the time, no matter what kind of personnel you have on the outside and at the other safety spot.  You can blitz all day from cover one.  And against the run a deep safety is almost always going to be playing the alley way downfield on weakside/cutback runs so they're not going to be dealing with a hat unless your defense has failed at another level.

 

Playing over the top and cleaning up open field runners is an important job, but it's easier to fill than almost any other spot on the defense.

 

I could understand the argument for a dominant safety having a large ripple effect on the defense better if he is a box guy closer to the line of scrimmage because he has to play man coverage so much more and also gets to blitz, and in the run they're playing force and running strong side alleys.  They're in match up battles way more often.  But even still, I don't think they have the same level of scheme altering impact that dominant edge and a gap rushers and outside corners have.  If I have a Chris Harris, Aqib Talib, and Von Miller leading my defense, I can field the best defense in the NFL with JAGs like Darian Stewart, TJ Ward, Danny Trevathan, Brandon Marshall, Derek Wolfe, and Sylvester Williams in the middle of my defense.

 

Those positions are also a lot harder to find elite players at because the speed necessary to dominate at those spots is flat out rare.

 

For me the real benefit for having a dominant free safety comes from their individual ability to generate turnovers rather than having a broader impact on the scheme itself.  Guys who can play a sound safety and still generate turnovers at a very high rate are something different.  Ed Reed and Darren Sharper, for example.  Kevin Byard and Eddie Jackson are two good examples of current players.  Game changing playmakers.  To me, that's how you make a major impact from the deep safety spot.  But if I'm given the choice between a 6-8 INT deep safety and a shutdown corner or a 15+ sack edge rusher, I'll take the corner or edge rusher because they're still the a priori factor in defensive success.  I think that, with the emergence in prominence of the A gap rusher, FS has become the least important position on the defense.

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I like Andy Isabella. If we lose Crowder, i like him even more. But he's a YAC guy who can play all over the field but mainly in the slot. I think he'd be a solid pick there in the 2nd round if Deebo is off the board. There are quite a few intriguing WRs in this draft class. I think we could get an impact guy in the 2nd or 3rd there, as well as along the interior OL.

 

Free Agency will have a big impact on how we approach the draft IMO. If we bring back Preston Smith, I don't think we go Edge until later with one of our 5ths to add depth. Which frees up a pick early to go elsewhere on defense. I think Smith is solid not elite. But idk if we necessarily get Elite at Edge at #15 ...

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Perfect draft for me. I predict JAX will sign a veteran QB. But let's say they don't draft a QB at 7. Trade 1.15 to Jax to take Murray and get 2.7, 4.7 and a 2020 1st round pick.

 

2.7: Dalton RIsner, C/G/T Kansas State

2.14: Deebo Samuel, WR S. Carolina

3.12: Jaylon Ferguson, EDGE Louisiana Tech

3.33: Jarret Stidham, QB Auburn

4.7: Terrill Hanks, ILB New Mexico State

5.15: Jimmy Moreland, CB/S JMU

5.33: Darnell Savage, S Maryland

 

You have 2 first round picks in 2020 and roll with Stidham/McCoy in 2019 with a beast OL and run game, and a defense that has a couple more young pieces to build around.

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