stevemcqueen1

2019 Comprehensive Draft Thread

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Assumptions:

- Giants draft Haskins

- Jaguars sign Foles

- Broncos draft Lock

- Dolphins draft Murray

 

Skins are on the clock with Stidham, Jones, Grier, Finley, Jackson --- any of those guys 1st rounders right now? Maybe Jones? Skins could probably trade back and still get a QB late 1st. But maybe they just love whoever their guy is and take them at #15.

 

I've argued before about how I am okay using #15 on a QB if there's a guy there that they have pegged as "their guy" ... at the end of the day if said guy plays in 2019 and sucks, the coaching staff gets blown out and the new regime comes in and draft their own QB. That's a worst case scenario IMO, and you're "only" losing that 2019 1st rounder as a result. Now, that's a bit indicative of the depressing state we find ourselves in nowadays as Redskins fans. But since we've lost SO much more as a result of poor QB decisions in the past, it could be worse.

 

In reality, if Haskins, Lock and Murray are gone by our pick, that means a few solid players have dropped. We would be best served using #15 on a stud on defense or a G/WR type and addressing QB y taking one of the guys i listed above in either the 2nd or 3rd round.

 

Probably a best-case IMO is trading back in the late-1st round and getting two more 3rd round picks. Draft a WR or Guard there in the 1st and have 5 picks on Day 2 to try and get some impact players, including the best QB you can get.

Edited by JamesMadisonSkins

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I don't think any of the QB's this year are first rounders under normal circumstances, with the exception of Kyler Murray, based on talent alone. 

 

Jones is still a project and analysts are throwing **** at the wall hoping to be right on the next Carson Wentz.

 

Murray - 1st

Haskins is borderline 1st, but should be 2nd rounder (i know he'll be overvalued in the first)

Lock 2-3

Finley, Jackson, Grier, Stidham, Jones 3-5

Stick 5-6

Rypien, Thorson, Patterson 7-UDFA

 

IMO

Edited by SemperFi Skins
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I'm having some fun with the FanSpeak boards today that got updated with Sr. Bowl practices. I really do think the best case scenario for us in this draft is to draft back to late 1st and get a couple 3rds. It's allowed me to really go BPA and still nail positions of need. We may not get a world-beater but IDK if we have to.


I will say, if one of the stud Edge guys falls to #15 it would be hard to pass on them. I know the team probably thinks Ryan Anderson can step in and play the position well, but I can't help but think by adding a Blue Chip EDGE rusher to this defense that we won't be dominant with another year of development from our DL and Rueben Foster anchroing the ILB spot. I think it will allow us to mask our secondary a bit, which I think has more upside and potential (esp. if we bring in a top end S in FA) with young guys like Alexander and Apke, who are essentially going to be "new pieces" to the secondary in 2019.

 

If we could go EDGE, WR, LG with our first 3 picks ... and could somehow squeeze out a Tyree Jackson or Jarret Stidham with the other 3rd rounder, I think it would really solidify the defense, give our offense a dominant run-game, and give whoever our QB is a chance to succeed by just game-managing.

 

Something like Montez Sweat, Deebo Samuel, Michael Jordan and Tyree Jackson/Jarett Stidham ... man

Edited by JamesMadisonSkins
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From @BenjaminAllbright on Twitter:

"Obviously early, but asking around these are the ranges people felt the senior bowl quarterbacks would go.

Lock: Top 10

Jones: Top 50

Jackson: Day 3/UDFA

McSorley: Day 3/UDFA

Grier: Mid-Day 2/Early Day3

Stidham: Day 3

Minshew: Day 3/UDFA

Finley: Day 3"

 

So in my mind ... that reads as:

Lock: Top 10

Jones: Late 1st/Early 2nd

Grier: Late 2nd - Early 3rd

Jackson: 5th-7th

McSorley: 5th-7th

Stidham: 4th-6th

Finley: 4th-6th

Minshew: 6th-UDFA

 

Throw in:
Haskins: Top 10

Murray: 1st

Edited by JamesMadisonSkins

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38 minutes ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

Assumptions:

- Giants draft Haskins

- Jaguars sign Foles

- Broncos draft Lock

- Dolphins draft Murray

 

Skins are on the clock with Stidham, Jones, Grier, Finley, Jackson --- any of those guys 1st rounders right now? Maybe Jones? Skins could probably trade back and still get a QB late 1st. But maybe they just love whoever their guy is and take them at #15.

 

If it were me in that scenario, I'd skip QB and go BPA.  The upside of 3-4 Qbs going before their pick is it will likely bump a really good player to their spot.

 

I am a draft a QB in 2020 guy.   I didn't start that way but the more I digest things the more it leads me there.  At the moment my main fear is Jones lands at 15 and they take him.  i have to dive into Jones some more so maybe I change my mind about him but don't love what I've seen from him.  And I did watch his big game last year versus Temple.

 

I've now watched 3 interviews from him and to say that the dude's personality is bland and low key would be an understatement.  Not that personality is the be all and end all -- but it matters more for the Qb position than any other. 

Edited by Skinsinparadise
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4 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

I am a draft a QB in 2020 guy.   I didn't start that way but the more I digest things the more it leads me there.  At the moment my main fear is Jones land at 15 and they take him.  i have to dive into Jones some more so maybe I change my mind about him but don't love what I've seen from him.  And I did watch his big game last year versus Temple.

I was a 2020 guy too until I saw that contraption on Alex Smith's leg. He won't play this year, and likely ever again. I wouldn't want to if I were him, at least.


That being said, I don't think you can go into the season with Colt and Josh Johnson. Simply because Jay's job is on the line and he won't do it.

 

A mid-round QB this year with upside to start if things start off poorly gives Jay something to work with long-term at least. It would also allow them to easily go to the well next year in the 1st to get a QB should things go south this year.


So for me, a guy like Stidham, Grier or Tyree Jackson would be interesting picks in the 3rd-5th range. But as I said, if Jay loves a QB, I'd let him draft his guy and be okay with it regardless of where that ends up being. He hasn't drafted any QBs has he, and he's a QB guru? Guess we'll see.

Edited by JamesMadisonSkins

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10 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

If it were me in that scenario, I'd skip QB and go BPA.  The upside of 3-4 Qbs going before their pick is it will likely bump a really good player to their spot.

I just ran a Fanspeak with an updated Big Board factoring the Sr. Bowl. It went:

1.31 - Deebo Samuels, WR S. Carolina (From NE)

2.14 - Chris Lindstrom, G Boston College

3.9 - Lonnie Johnson, Jr., CB Kentucky (From NE)

3.12 - Jarret Stidham, QB Auburn

3.33 - Jaylon Ferguson, EDGE La. Tech

3.37 - Terril Hanks, ILB New Mexico State (From NE)

 

Right there you've basically gone BPA and still gotten a QB for the rest of the season. Another non-trade version:

1.15 - Montez Sweat, EDGE Miss. State

2.14 - Andy Isabella, WR UMass

3.12 - Beau Baschwazel, G Wisconsin

3.33 - Tyree Jackson, QB Buffalo

 

In either scenario you're still adding some talent at positions of need but also giving yourself a "bridge" QB to 2020 ... upside is you got your QB of the future, downside is you set up a nice draft pick in 2020 if they suck. This is assuming Colt is not the starter for the entire season. And the most likely scenario is they show enough promise to give you some hope, but not enough to prevent you from using a top pick on a QB like Fromm to build your franchise around in 2020 and you can always trade your 2019 QB down the line if they continue to develop and show promise in limited snaps

Edited by JamesMadisonSkins

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I think the Bangals are a sneaky team to take Murray as well.  I'm assuming Haskins, Locke, and Murray are all gone.  My #1 choice at 15 is Hockenson.  He'll make the most immediate impact. 

 

 

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Relating this to some of my favorites thus far...

 

Rd 1 - Perhaps Ford, though I wonder how Gruden would feel about that.  Considering market value, I’d rather go with corner (Baker/Murphy), or edge rusher (Polite, Sweat, Walker).  

 

Rd 2 - qb (Grier), wr (Brown, Samuel, Campbell), safety (Rapp?, Adderly, maybe Savage?), corner (Love?) or edge (Winovich)

 

Rd 3 - a qb (Stidham, Finlay), edge (Gustin), safety (Gardner, Thornhill, Rapp, Savage), corner (Love, Joejuan Williams, the Penn State corner, Lonnie Jackson), or receiver (someone likely slips, right now I’m pegging Lodge here)

 

 

Left off guards (besides Ford), DL (I doubt they go this route), backs (also doubt it) and TEs... mostly because I haven’t watched them nearly as much.  

Edited by skinny21

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45 minutes ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

I've argued before about how I am okay using #15 on a QB if there's a guy there that they have pegged as "their guy" ... at the end of the day if said guy plays in 2019 and sucks, the coaching staff gets blown out and the new regime comes in and draft their own QB. That's a worst case scenario IMO, and you're "only" losing that 2019 1st rounder as a result. 

 

Probably a best-case IMO is trading back in the late-1st round and getting two more 3rd round picks. Draft a WR or Guard there in the 1st and have 5 picks on Day 2 to try and get some impact players, including the best QB you can get.

 

Here's what would actually happen if the Skins draft a QB at 15 and he sucks:  coaches would be fired and a new coach would be hired with the express instructions to coach up the great QB that the front office acquired.  In 2020 the Skins would not select another QB because that would be admitting their mistake since they (not the coaches) selected the QB bust.

 

Skins could drop to OAK #27; swap 2nd round picks (pick 35 for Skins pick 46); and acquire OAK 3rd round (pick #66).  

 

 

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3 minutes ago, PlayAction said:

 

Here's what would actually happen if the Skins draft a QB at 15 and he sucks:  coaches would be fired and a new coach would be hired with the express instructions to coach up the great QB that the front office acquired.  In 2020 the Skins would not select another QB because that would be admitting their mistake since they (not the coaches) selected the QB bust.

 

Skins could drop to OAK #27; swap 2nd round picks (pick 35 for Skins pick 46); and acquire OAK 3rd round (pick #66). 

Oh, I like that trade a lot.

 

As for your first point, I disagree and it depends on where that 2020 pick sits. If you go 6-10 and are picking #11 or so, then yeah, you're probably right. If the team goes 4-12 and has the #3 pick then I think even doofas Bruce and Snyder wouldn't pass on a chance to add From, Herbert or Tua ... even if it is writing off the other QB.

 

Heck you could probably trade said 2019 QB (assuming a #15 pick) for a 3rd or 4th round pick and move on.

Of course, you could get REALLY deep ... and if you had a so-so year with said #15 pick QB and didn't want to write him off ... if you finished with a top 5 pick and didn't want to go back to the well so quickly, I would trade TF out of that pick to someone who would want Herbert or Tua and add a future 1st, 2nd and 3rd. So if your #15 pick QB fails to make strides in Year 2, you are loaded up with 2021 picks to go get my boy Lawrence :)

 

Okay that's a lot of freaking hypotheticals!

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19 minutes ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

I was a 2020 guy too until I saw that contraption on Alex Smith's leg. He won't play this year, and likely ever again. I wouldn't want to if I were him, at least.


That being said, I don't think you can go into the season with Colt and Josh Johnson. Simply because Jay's job is on the line and he won't do it.

 

 

What we think they should do and actually do are two different subjects.  But agree they will make a move but the question is when.  Keim is saying here he hears that some in the FO like the idea of taking a QB later in the draft versus early.  Hoffman has said he's heard the same.  Sounds like some there want to take a QB early, some want to take one later.  I am in the later camp myself.  If we take a QB in the third round for example, we wouldn't be married to that guy long term.  But if for example they take Jones at 15, I'd seriously doubt they reboot in 2020 with another first round QB.  You typically ride with your #1 pick for while.

 

 

 

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2 minutes ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

We should try and trade for Josh Rosen.  He'd be the third best option after Haskins and Murray IMO.

Hmm. So this really depends on the cost. If Arizona wants Murray that bad (Debatable) with the #1 overall pick ... I would expect them to deal Rosen to another one of the QB needy teams ... and I think his price is likely at a minimum a 2nd if not a 1st. To bail on him so quickly would be kind of crazy. If they truly moved on from Rosen, I would expect the REdskins to have to give up #15 for him.


If the offer was our 2nd round pick, I'd do it. Heartbeat.

Yeah you can put me squarely in the "middle round" camp. For the reasons stated above, you can move on from them quickly, but they also give you some prospective hope for 2019. Something we haven't had at QB (developmentally) in years.

 

Unless someone like Kyler Murray falls to #15, I see that being the strategy.


Stidham, Grier, Jackson in the 3rd, or possibly even the 4th if we trade down and acquire a 4th somewhere.

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Looking forward to catching up here tonight, something I’m admitted atrocious at. I heard Will Grier hurt himself more than any QB, if I trust in our friend SIP like I think I do, I look at that as a resounding positive. 

 

I caught a pff video today & my immediate reaction:

ES draft analysis is far superior.

 

Oh, and Steve’s guy, DSammy from SCar, crushed it, unsurprisingly so. A good WR always looks good, the same is not necessarily true for a QB. 

 

 

 

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1 minute ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

If the offer was our 2nd round pick, I'd do it. Heartbeat. 

 

They're not going to get a first round pick for him after that absolutely disastrous rookie season.  He looks like a bust and they'd be lucky to get a second back for him.  Third possibly.  55% completions.  Dead last in QB Rating.  Dead last in yards per attempt.  Dead last in QBR and it's not close. 24 INTs and Fumbles against just 11 TDs.  And if the Cardinals pick Murray before dealing him, his value will evaporate further.

 

I'd float our comp pick in the third for him, but would go no higher, and I wouldn't cry if they said no.  He's damaged goods.

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5 hours ago, skinny21 said:

Stumbled across Will Grier’s Boiler Room episode on Will Grier.  I’m more sold on Grier than I was.  

 

I love Matt Waldman.  He has a keen eye for detail and really gets the elemental, mechanical level of the sport.

 

But I've noticed over the years that he has a real problem contextualizing the details he does such a good job spotting.  When he misses on guys, I think this is the main reason why.  I watched his video on Easton Stick a week or two ago and found myself shouting impotently at my computer screen that Waldman was some how oblivious to the noodle arm.

 

He sold me on Connor Cook a couple of years ago, based on some of the evaluations of positive mechanical things the guy did, and had me ignoring my gut negative reaction about his inability to operate his offense smoothly and keep the chains moving.

 

You can't ignore arm talent when you're evaluating QBs.  It's the biggest line of demarcation between these kids aside from body type.  You can't ignore the release.  You can't get too fixated on nifty mechanical tricks the kids have developed to make plays because they can be learned and they're often small potatoes in the bigger picture of good quarterbacking.  And you can't forget about prospect age.  You have to be skeptical of the advanced feel for the position of older QBs like Stick and Grier and realize that the younger guys can catch up to them quickly in this aspect over the next few seasons.

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I was thinking we should probably avoid trading back from 15 because we need the blue chip guys more than we need an additional 3rd (or whatever), but I think it’s going to depend on who’s available and who the FO falls for.  

 

Regarding qbs, I wonder what some of the teams with aging qbs do.  NO, LAC, PIT, NE... do they look at qbs in the late 2nd or trade up in the 3rd (to preempt the run of the mid rounders?) or focus on adding talent for 1 (or whatever) last run?  I’m inclined toward the latter, but you never know.  

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16 minutes ago, volsmet said:

Looking forward to catching up here tonight, something I’m admitted atrocious at. I heard Will Grier hurt himself more than any QB, if I trust in our friend SIP like I think I do, I look at that as a resounding positive. 

 

 

Thanks for the plug but I am not really sure yet about Grier.  When I watched Grier during the recent college season it wasn't so much with the draft on my mind.  I just watched him like I often watch college games and that is purely for entertainment.  And in that sense, I found Grier entertaining -- like how he dodges pressure and is willing to throw from weird arm angles to make plays among other things.   

 

But I need to rewatch him to land on a position in this draft.  I know some draft geeks were critical of his foot work before the senior bowl -- many of whom doubled down on that after the senior bowl.  Of the QBs in this draft I am most confident of the most obvious ones -- Haskins and Murray.   After those two, I have to dive deeper.   Obviously its really tough to figure QBs out with conviction.   

 

I am leaning at the moment at not digging Daniel Jones.  I think I like Lock more.  I am so far not taken by Rypien but I think he can be a good backup or maybe a low end starter.  I watched Finley in one game and didn't like what I saw.  But got to spend more time on them.

 

The prospects that I've dived into the most and thereby I am the most confident in my opinion -- as to players that are likely going to be there at 15:  J. Polite, Hockenson, M. Brown, C. Ford.  Love what I saw from Deebo Samuel in the senior bowl practices and just started watching his games.  I like Irv Smith in the 2nd round.   Lindstrom in the 2nd. And watched both a  bunch. 

 

I got a lot of work to do.  But yeah there are people here that are more sold right now on Grier than I am.  And I am not saying they are wrong.  I haven't rewatched any of his games yet from last season.  I recall the game that really made me fall for Grier during the season, which was the one against Oklahoma.  The Grier versus Murray matchup -- that one got me jazzed about both guys.  But they both faced atrocious defenses. 

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12 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

I am leaning at the moment at not digging Daniel Jones.  I think I like Lock more. 

 

Same here.  I definitely like Lock more.

 

I do not see first round arm talent with Jones.  I think the first round hype for him was bad draftnik groupthink based on him being big and athletic, but I think he's starting to come back down to Earth.  He's a second or third round talent IMO.

 

I think it's:

1 - Murray

2 - Haskins

bit of a drop

3 - Lock

huge dropoff

4 - Grier/Jones/Finley/Stidham, etc.

 

Murray, Haskins, and Lock are the only first round caliber QBs this season.

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48 minutes ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

They're not going to get a first round pick for him after that absolutely disastrous rookie season.  He looks like a bust and they'd be lucky to get a second back for him.  Third possibly.  55% completions.  Dead last in QB Rating.  Dead last in yards per attempt.  Dead last in QBR and it's not close. 24 INTs and Fumbles against just 11 TDs.  And if the Cardinals pick Murray before dealing him, his value will evaporate further.

 

I'd float our comp pick in the third for him, but would go no higher, and I wouldn't cry if they said no.  He's damaged goods.

 

Well he's 22 years old and was put in a starting role probably before he was ready.  He did have some red flags in his draft report that were confirmed during his first year.  The Skins don't have a good WR group yet and an OL that's been riddled with injuries the past two years.  Washington is probably not the best place for Rosen to develop.

  • Decision making and post-snap reads are inconsistent
  • Refuses easy throws at times
  • Arm talent and strength are below average
  • May need to make greater effort to drive field and seam throws
  • Poor career deep ball completion rate
  • Excess air under ball allows challenges
  • Lacks gun to challenge safeties with rip throws over the top
  • Needs better anticipation
  • Poor mobility
  • Struggles to elude early pressure
  • Completed just 42.4 percent of his throws when forced to move
  • Too much hero ball
  • Extends plays and takes unnecessary chances rather than throwing it away
  • Scouts question his passion for football and whether he will be a willing student
  •  
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1 hour ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

From @BenjaminAllbright on Twitter:

"Obviously early, but asking around these are the ranges people felt the senior bowl quarterbacks would go.

Lock: Top 10

Jones: Top 50

Jackson: Day 3/UDFA

McSorley: Day 3/UDFA

Grier: Mid-Day 2/Early Day3

Stidham: Day 3

Minshew: Day 3/UDFA

Finley: Day 3" 

 

This feels right to me.  I would add Murray and Haskins to the list at 1 and 3 overall.

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Lucke only got sacked 18 times last year I wonder why that is? Maybe a stud like Quinton Nelson will be available in the 1st round. 

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Bored on fanspeak, tried a few drafts. No trades, BPA with an eye on need. Used several different big boards, so the rankings for players moved around a bunch.

fanspeak.JPG

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