stevemcqueen1

2019 Comprehensive Draft Thread

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6 minutes ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

He was still captain check down last season.  All that yardage per attempt that people are touting from his last season as evidence he can throw the ball down field and outside the numbers was from catch and runs.  He wasn't throwing the ball downfield....

This isn't the place for this discussion, but I really thought I saw some stats where his air yards last year were significantly higher, and he was one of the leaders in completing shots down the field.  Maybe I misread.  Regardless, he's the guy we've got for the next 2-3 years, so we're stuck with him, for better or worse. 

 

The WR core of Doctson/Richardson/Crowder is going to result in absolutely nothing positive ever.  I think that was what I was originally getting at.  Alex can be more effective than he has been, but not with this cast of WRs.  Bruce thinking Doctson is a starter two years in a row and not upgrading significantly in some way is criminally incompetent. 

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15 minutes ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

This isn't the place for this discussion, but I really thought I saw some stats where his air yards last year were significantly higher, and he was one of the leaders in completing shots down the field.  Maybe I misread.  Regardless, he's the guy we've got for the next 2-3 years, so we're stuck with him, for better or worse. 

 

The WR core of Doctson/Richardson/Crowder is going to result in absolutely nothing positive ever.  I think that was what I was originally getting at.  Alex can be more effective than he has been, but not with this cast of WRs.  Bruce thinking Doctson is a starter two years in a row and not upgrading significantly in some way is criminally incompetent. 

 

He was also near the bottom in their average yards to the sticks stat, another indication that his yardage was coming from catch and runs.  Alex is 34 and he isn't going to change who he's been his entire career no matter who we put on the field around him.  If you draft a big time outside receiver hoping to add a vertical element to the offense, Alex will not be able to get him the ball unless he's also a slot guy who gets a ton of separation each play like Tyreek Hill.

 

You have to build around Smith's limitations to be successful.  He needs a great line and running game and he needs top notch tight ends and slot guys to work the middle of the field because he can't stick throws outside the numbers from the pocket.  If you want to change that low passing game ceiling then you have to start by changing QBs because no receiver can do anything about their QB not being able to get them the ball.

 

Everyone in the NFL plays on a one year deal.

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Today was a good demonstration of what Alex Smith does well as a QB: extend plays from the pocket, work the openings in the middle of the field on timing routes, work the RPO game with the slot guys, take downfield shots between the numbers off of play action, and run bootlegs and sprint outs to move the pockets and give him shorter throwing lanes to the boundaries as well as pick up junk yards on the ground on broken plays.

 

It reinforces my view that the tight end is the real weapon in an Alex Smith led passing game.  Travis Kelce and Vernon Davis are the prototypes for what we need in the position.  Jordan Reed gives that to us when we're healthy, but he's unreliable.

 

If we're trying to go out and get a big upgrade at WR by spending significant money/draft picks, then he needs to be able to play in the slot.  An outside receiver will not get enough targets to justify his value in this offense.

Edited by stevemcqueen1

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A name I think we should remember as a possible Preston replacement through the draft would be Oshane Ximines.  From what i’ve read he is a really hard worker, a leader, and most importantly, very talented. He has an endless motor and several moves off the edge. 

 

 

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On 9/23/2018 at 6:54 PM, stevemcqueen1 said:

My boy Christian McCaffrey got it done for Carolina today.

He did pretty well. A hop skip and a jump past doing okay. 

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7 hours ago, Tedskins 21 said:

A name I think we should remember as a possible Preston replacement through the draft would be Oshane Ximines.  From what i’ve read he is a really hard worker, a leader, and most importantly, very talented. He has an endless motor and several moves off the edge.  

 

He sure lit up Virginia Tech.  He's definitely one to watch.  At this rate he's going to end up with like 15 sacks this year.

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19 minutes ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

He sure lit up Virginia Tech.  He's definitely one to watch.  At this rate he's going to end up with like 15 sacks this year.

 

I like his compact size too, seems to help with getting leverage and bending across that edge. Guys who are little more compact over the years have been more dominant in that 3-4 OLB position, ie, Mack, Mathews, Houston, Miller. 

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39 minutes ago, Tedskins 21 said:

 

I like his compact size too, seems to help with getting leverage and bending across that edge. Guys who are little more compact over the years have been more dominant in that 3-4 OLB position, ie, Mack, Mathews, Houston, Miller.  

 

Compact and fast.  If you're going to be small, you can't be slow.  They've got to be able to run sub 4.7. 

 

But I get your point. It definitely seems like the shorter, trimmer guys are better athletes.  Better first steps.  Better balance and lateral quickness.  Vic Beasley is another one that comes to mind.  All of those guys are 6'3 and in a range of like 245 to 260.

 

The real prize is when you get a guy like Houston who is compact and fast without sacrificing length.  He's got ridiculous 34.5" arms.  In hindsight, it's amazing that he fell into the third round.  He is such a rare physical specimen and guys matching his physical profile almost never get missed.

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Check out this highlight video of Oshane's junior season:

 

 

 

Look at how friggin explosive he is.  This kid has an elite first step and he can leave his feet to make plays off his frame like a linebacker.  Twitchy guy.

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Yeah, damn, electric turning the corner (Looks like a running back). Seems very instinctive in forcing fumbles. Good arm length. 

 

Looks like one of those insane Seattle backers

Edited by Mr. Sinister
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After three games, my new revised draft wish list is as follows:

  • OG
  • OT (need to consider this in first two rounds - I'm no longer sold on Moses due to injury and Williams is getting old)
  • ILB (again in first two rounds - would like a top guy here to pair with SDH if he continues to progress into starting lineup)
  • TE
  • WR (although we have poor track record in the draft - would almost rather us not waste a pick here and simply take someone from FA)
  • QB
  • FS 

 

I would target BPA at OT/FS/ILB in first two rounds. OG in first 3-4 rounds.

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To those wanting a speed rusher, good ****ing luck I say. Finding those speedy guys that can get you 9-11 sacks consistently is extremely rare. It's probably the biggest boom/bust position in Football. For every Von Miller you have at least 5 Dion Jordan's it seems like. The speedy guys most of the time just don't have the ability to shake OT's unless they're incredibly fast, freakishly strong for their size, or have really good technique. 

Edited by Burgundy Yoda
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8 minutes ago, Burgundy Yoda said:

To those wanting a speed rusher, good ****ing luck I say. Finding those speedy guys that can get you 9-11 sacks consistently is extremely rare. It's probably the biggest boom/bust position in Football. For every Von Miller you have at least 5 Dion Jordan's it seems like. The speedy guys most of the time just don't have the ability to shake OT's unless they're incredibly fast, freakishly strong for their size, or have really good technique. 

 

Hmm, I'm looking at past drafts, and all of the pure speed rush prospects that went in the 1st or 2nd rounds have seriously struggled with consistency.  Either that or they just busted.

 

I don't think we have to worry about the FO doing that.  Look at the Edge rushers we've drafted.  They've all been guys who have power.  They definitely prefer that over just speed (see Ryan Anderson).  Trent Murphy and Preston Smith are both 6'5, long armed, and weigh 260+.  Kerrigan is a bit smaller but not by much.  The other FA we brought in this off-season is known as more of a power guy (Pernell McPhee).

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1 hour ago, bird_1972 said:

After three games, my new revised draft wish list is as follows:

  • OG
  • OT (need to consider this in first two rounds - I'm no longer sold on Moses due to injury and Williams is getting old)
  • ILB (again in first two rounds - would like a top guy here to pair with SDH if he continues to progress into starting lineup)
  • TE
  • WR (although we have poor track record in the draft - would almost rather us not waste a pick here and simply take someone from FA)
  • QB
  • FS 

 

OG - I'd change that to just Interior OL.  Roullier looked good at LG, he's looked good at C.  I'm betting the FO wants to look for another G/C versatile guy.

 

OT - We just drafted Geron Christian in the 3rd round to be our backup OT.  Nsekhe will be a free agent, and with Christian around, I doubt we're re-signing Nsekhe and instead hoping for a comp pick.

 

ILB - We gave Zach Brown a 3 year deal, and have Josh Harvey-Clemons taking his spot in passing situations.  It's possible to cut Zach Brown in 2019, that'd only be a 3 million dead cap hit.  But I think a ILB goal should be as one to replace SDH/Mason Foster instead of Brown/JHC.  I'm not against drafting a ILB in the 1st if he can handle Mike duties.  That said, I did like what I saw out of SDH in the pre-season.

 

QB - Why draft someone when the team clearly prefers keeping only 2 QB's on the roster?  We just gave McCoy another year extension, and Smith's contract is too onerous to spend a higher pick on a guy in 2019.  I doubt a QB is drafted at all.  2020 is I think when this starts getting realistic.

 

FS - We did just draft Troy Apke to develop him as insurance for Montae Nicholson.  Do you propose cutting Apke?

 

TE - I can see reasons for that.

 

WR - Sure, going to be hard to find one that fits the Gruden/Smith scheme, but they're out there.

 

2 hours ago, bird_1972 said:

I would target BPA at OT/FS/ILB in first two rounds. OG in first 3-4 rounds.

 

With Preston Smith and Pernell McPhee being Free Agents, uncertainty around Ryan Anderson's effectiveness, and Ryan Kerrigan being 31 (next season)...I can see us going Edge rusher in Round 1 if the value is there.  I'd argue that Edge should be drafted in the first 3 rounds regardless.

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Based on our current play, ordinarily I would say we would aim for a LG with our first pick.  But I think we might actually go to LT and move Trent inside next season.  If you go LG early, you can no longer move Trent inside for a few years at least.  I think we also will be targetting an ILB early in the draft, and probably another secondary player as well.  The only other position I see as a need for us next draft is WR, everything else seems to have competency at least.

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On 9/23/2018 at 9:56 AM, stevemcqueen1 said:

He was also near the bottom in their average yards to the sticks stat, another indication that his yardage was coming from catch and runs.

 

 

Apparently not on 3rd downs.  In 2017, according to the A.L.E.X. stat, he was 22nd out of 38 qualifying quarterbacks.  Just ahead of Philip Rivers and our former Kirk Cousins.

 

Interestingly, if we break it down by yardage Short (1-2 yards), Medium (3-6 yards), and Long (7+ yards) then Alex Smith is great in Short, awful in Medium, and average in Long.

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14 hours ago, Alcoholic Zebra said:

 

Hmm, I'm looking at past drafts, and all of the pure speed rush prospects that went in the 1st or 2nd rounds have seriously struggled with consistency.  Either that or they just busted.

 

I don't think we have to worry about the FO doing that.  Look at the Edge rushers we've drafted.  They've all been guys who have power.  They definitely prefer that over just speed (see Ryan Anderson).  Trent Murphy and Preston Smith are both 6'5, long armed, and weigh 260+.  Kerrigan is a bit smaller but not by much.  The other FA we brought in this off-season is known as more of a power guy (Pernell McPhee).

 

Harder to find speed rushers, that are effective I agree.   Takkarist Mckinley wasn't bad last year, his rookie season and is off to a good start this season.   Beasley has been inconsistent partly because of injuries but when he's been on, he's been good.   Probably the Tim Williams, Ryan Anderson comparison might be interesting.  Power versus speed.  Williams bulked up to 270 pounds last year and said he lost a step for doing it, he's down to 250, and apparently had a big preseason and has a sack thus far this season.

 

Cooley in his film reviews would harp on the need for a speed rusher over just pure power guys saying the O lineman he'd talk to would freak out much more over speed than power, especially in third long when you can line up wide without worrying much about setting the edge against the run.  Bill Polian said something similar about the Redskins a season ago saying they got all power rushers and it makes them easier to defend on third and long.  

 

I haven't dived in yet to pass rushers, Montez Sweat, has some hype though, got speed-explosion. 

 

Montez Sweat is at it again this season – excelling at rushing the passer https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/pff-college-top-25-observations-week-3 

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Edited by Skinsinparadise

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14 hours ago, Alcoholic Zebra said:

 

OG - I'd change that to just Interior OL.  Roullier looked good at LG, he's looked good at C.  I'm betting the FO wants to look for another G/C versatile guy. I'm fine with this but would prefer whatever interior OL we drafted be top 5 at his position. We need someone strong there.

 

OT - We just drafted Geron Christian in the 3rd round to be our backup OT.  Nsekhe will be a free agent, and with Christian around, I doubt we're re-signing Nsekhe and instead hoping for a comp pick. Agree on both points but we need someone starter-ready and potentially elite - Geron will likely never be elite but he could develop into a younger Nsekhe which is still very valuable for us. Basically, drafting an OT would not contradict whatever the FO does with Christian/Nsekhe.

 

ILB - We gave Zach Brown a 3 year deal, and have Josh Harvey-Clemons taking his spot in passing situations.  It's possible to cut Zach Brown in 2019, that'd only be a 3 million dead cap hit.  But I think a ILB goal should be as one to replace SDH/Mason Foster instead of Brown/JHC.  I'm not against drafting a ILB in the 1st if he can handle Mike duties.  That said, I did like what I saw out of SDH in the pre-season. Until I see our run D start to dominate, I'm going to think an upgrade at ILB should be on the table regardless of who has what kind of contract.

 

QB - Why draft someone when the team clearly prefers keeping only 2 QB's on the roster?  We just gave McCoy another year extension, and Smith's contract is too onerous to spend a higher pick on a guy in 2019.  I doubt a QB is drafted at all.  2020 is I think when this starts getting realistic. That's fine. I'm squishy on the need for QB but felt like we may want someone to groom behind Alex.

 

FS - We did just draft Troy Apke to develop him as insurance for Montae Nicholson.  Do you propose cutting Apke? Apke was a mistake in the 4th round. Huge reach. I think he could be a solid Teams guy for us but will not likely be the kind of starting FS our D needs roaming around in the secondary. As is the case with most things, I could very well be wrong (and often am) but Apke just doesn't strike me as a future starter.

 

TE - I can see reasons for that. I'm happy that Reed has been back and healthy but we all know the deal here. Better for us to draft someone which may give us the flexibility to trade Reed for value if he stays on the field all year.

 

WR - Sure, going to be hard to find one that fits the Gruden/Smith scheme, but they're out there Who would be some examples of WR that are suited for the Gruden/Smith scheme?

 

With Preston Smith and Pernell McPhee being Free Agents, uncertainty around Ryan Anderson's effectiveness, and Ryan Kerrigan being 31 (next season)...I can see us going Edge rusher in Round 1 if the value is there.  I'd argue that Edge should be drafted in the first 3 rounds regardless.VERY good point and a miss on my part. I agree and would be happy with this as well. Basically makes either an elite EDGE or elite OT the target in the first round.

 

Responses in red above.

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8 hours ago, bird_1972 said:

Agree on both points but we need someone starter-ready and potentially elite - Geron will likely never be elite but he could develop into a younger Nsekhe which is still very valuable for us. Basically, drafting an OT would not contradict whatever the FO does with Christian/Nsekhe.

 

I think most OT prospects are not as starter ready with elite potential as you think they are likely to be.  We drafted Geron in the 3rd because while he wasn't ready, he did have great potential.  Keep in mind, he came out as a Junior.  He's got the size (height/wingspan), arm length, and hand width that teams covet.  From all reports he's got the footspeed and athletic attributes.  He's one of the "basketball players", and that fact was all over every draft profile for him.

 

How would drafting an OT early (Day 1 or Day 2), not contradict what the FO did by drafting Christian?  If we drafted an OT in the 1st round, that means Christian is gone right?  We have 4 OT's on the roster right now, what's unusual is that all 4 of them are thought of as only OT's by the team.  Normally if a team has a 4th OT on the roster, that 4th guy is backing up Guard as well.  But Geron isn't, and I don't believe the coaches think of him as someone who can do that.

 

In 2019 you want an OT with 1) potential and 2) be ready to start.  Geron Christian already has 1, and we hopefully he's closer to 2 by the time 2019 season rolls around if not already there.  We can look at Morgan Moses who looked awful as a rookie in 2014, but suddenly was a good starter in 2015.  Christian has more physical potential than Moses did coming out.

 

I agree that you need to have the cupboard stocked and you need a backup plan for injuries.  But I'm arguing we already have that at OT with Geron Christian.  We don't have that at Guard/Center or many other positions.  It seems to me like misspent resources to spend another early draft pick on OT at the expense of not spending that on other positions that need depth (or maybe a starter).

 

P.S.  Another position we didn't cover, I'd like to draft a DT on Day 3.  Someone who can play 5 tech to 3 tech, and if we can't re-sign Ioannidis (who will be on the last year of his deal), it'll give that person a year to develop.  We should have loads of Day 3 draft picks, so why not?

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23 hours ago, Alcoholic Zebra said:

QB - Why draft someone when the team clearly prefers keeping only 2 QB's on the roster?  We just gave McCoy another year extension, and Smith's contract is too onerous to spend a higher pick on a guy in 2019.  I doubt a QB is drafted at all.  2020 is I think when this starts getting realistic.

At this time, not a QB in 1-3 but one in 4-7.  You need to start looking for late round guys now.  The Pats selected a QB in the draft almost every year even while Brady was in his prime. While Farve was in his prime, the Pack kept looking at QBs late.  True, we probably don't use a high pick until 2020 (probably would allow the new guy a season or two to develop) but, as with Hogan this year (who was basically equivalent to using a late pick this year), we need to keep playing the numbers.

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FWIW - Listening to Trent Dilfer on The Herd this week and he feels there is some great QB talent coming out the next 2 drafts.

 

https://www.pennlive.com/pennstatefootball/index.ssf/2018/09/trace_mcsorley_nfl_penn_state.html

 

"[Oregon's Justin] Herbert, [Missouri's Drew] Lock, [Auburn's Jarrett] Stidham, McSorley - don't look past McSorley at Penn State; I know he's little, but if Baker's doing it, McSorley can do it - [West Virginia's Will] Grier, [Ohio State's Dwayne] Haskins in two years, [Alabama's] Tua [Togavailoa] in two years. You have studs, big-time talents coming out in the next couple of Drafts at quarterback. And if guys like Dak don't start playing better, heck yeah, I'm drafting one of those guys. Because those guys can be, I don't wanna say generational talents, but true QB1s in the NFL."

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48 minutes ago, HigSkin said:

FWIW - Listening to Trent Dilfer on The Herd this week and he feels there is some great QB talent coming out the next 2 drafts.

 

https://www.pennlive.com/pennstatefootball/index.ssf/2018/09/trace_mcsorley_nfl_penn_state.html

 

 

I've watched a bunch of Jake Fromm who I like.  Only problem is to get one of the top guys you likely need a top 3 pick.  Getting Alex does enough to keep them competitive without bottoming out so odds are a lot of guys will be out of range of their pick.  So they have to get lucky with that next tier. 

 

https://www.dawgnation.com/football/watch-georgia-qb-jake-fromm-taking-his-game-to-a-new-level-this-year

AHENS — Jake Fromm said Monday he’s “not a big stats guy.” Maybe he should be, though.

There are a lot out there for Fromm to like.

 

There are surface ones that everyone spouts, then those that dig a little deeper. Georgia’s sophomore quarterback is looking good on both counts this season.

 

Start with completion percentage. Fromm is completing 72.5 percent of his passes on the year. That puts him on pace to shatter the school record of 67.9 percent established by Hutson Mason in 2014 and in position to break the SEC record set by Tim Couch at Kentucky in 1998.

What’s more, that’s after Fromm had a season-high 10 incompletions this past Saturday against Missouri. Fromm was 13 of 23 passing for 260 yards and 3 touchdowns in the 43-29 win over the Tigers, but that didn’t tell the whole story of his day’s work in Columbia, Mo.

A

ccording to Pro Football Focus, it was Fromm’s best day as Georgia’s quarterback. That’s because he attempted 10 passes of more than 10 yards and completed five of them. Fromm’s average completion was 20 yards. Grading on a pro scale, that gave him an overall rating of 77.7.

Fromm’s rating went up to 89.2 against the blitz, according to PFF. He was 7-for-11 for 146 yards and two touchdowns when Missouri came after him. Georgia’s offensive line deserves some credit for that as well. He was “under pressure” on only five of his 23 drop-backs on the afternoon and they gave up statistical hurry only twice.

 

But these statistical observations weren’t telling Georgia coach Kirby Smart anything he didn’t already know about how Fromm is playing.

“I think he’s able to make quicker, smarter decisions,” Smart said at Monday’s weekly news conference. “He’s processing information really quick; he understands what defenses are trying to do; he’s in his second year in our system; he’s got more experience with the wideouts. He had good wideouts last year, but the kids this year give him a bigger body to work with. They’ve made some plays for him, too. They’re catching the ball better now.”

 

Add it all together and Fromm is completing passes at a rate 10 percent greater than he did last year when he earned freshman All-America honors. A week after leading the nation in completion percentage (80), Fromm is seventh.

“I don’t think he was less accurate last year,” Smart said. “I think he understands where the check-down is and how to use the tools that are around him.”

Fromm wasn’t interested in honking his own horn Monday, but he did second Smart’s assertion that he is benefiting from a deep and skilled receiver corps.

“That room is very talented,” Fromm said. “You can go in there and see it just from the physical stature of the guys in there. Guys in there can run really fast and are really tall and can make a lot of plays, so it speaks to the depth of the room and how tough that room really is.”

Georgia’s receiving corps has been dealing with injuries all year, but hasn’t missed a beat. Terry Godwin, the leading returning pass-catcher from last year, has been dealing with leg injuries since preseason camp and is just beginning to get back to full speed. No sooner did freshman Kearis Jackson come back from a hamstring injury, than Tyler Simmons went out this past Saturday with a shoulder injury.

Edited by Skinsinparadise
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