stevemcqueen1

2019 Comprehensive Draft Thread

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4 hours ago, Anselmheifer said:

I can't believe how close Lock is to Tua here. Funny that Lock rates better than Fromm, but people on the board would rather have Fromm than Haskins.

 

Why you don't ignore a good NFL prospect today to chase grass is greener scenarios of name recognition freshman QBs playing for blue blood programs who are years away from the NFL.  Most of the time those players don't end up being better prospects than the top guys who emerge as juniors and seniors anyway.  In 2015, Josh Rosen = Trevor Lawrence except he played for a far worse team and coach.  Looking advanced and starring as a freshman doesn't mean you're going to be a better prospect come NFL time.  Sometimes it just means you were a little more precocious, or got an earlier opportunity to start.

 

The list of blue chip freshman QB prospects playing for big time programs who were  viewed as potential top five picks years before they were actually evaluated is a mixed bag: Sam Darnold, Josh Rosen, Jameis Winston, Christian Hackenberg, Marcus Mariota, Johnny Manziel, Andrew Luck, Matt Barkley, Landry Jones. 

 

The bag of guys who emerged as potential top five picks as sophomores is even more mixed, running the gamut from DeShaun Watson, Lamar Jackson, and Jared Goff, to Blake Bortles, Geno Smith, Tim Tebow, Jimmy Clausen, and Jevan Snead.

 

You have to assess each class on its own merits and not worry about the underclassmen who are coming out down the road. 

 

The other thing, no NFL front office or coaching staff has the security to just punt on whole seasons and draft classes to chase grass is greener underclassmen.

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5 hours ago, Anselmheifer said:

I was thinking about our FO this evening, and I think they might be more patient than a lot of us were thinking. If they are capable of playing the long game and realizing that you build a team with draft picks, allowing players to leave and mostly signing FA's that were released and don't count against our comp picks, I think they are capable of rolling with Colt and whoever and planning to take another shot at QB in 2020. 

 

I'm not sure about this.  Alex Smith's career as a starting QB is over, which means we have no starting quarterback.  He's going to either retire or be put on IR for next season.

 

Pretty much the entire coaching staff will 100% get fired if we have another losing season with no QB on the roster.

 

We don't have the money to go after Foles.  Drafting a kid who can start as a rookie and/or give us hope for the future is absolutely the only chance this staff has of making it past next season.

 

We're going to be drafting a QB of some sort, I don't think that's in question.  It's a matter of who.  It'd be nice to get Murray or Haskins, but I'm not sure our staff will be empowered to give up a huge package of picks to move up for them.  The more likely scenario is picking from the second, third, and fourth tiers at the position at 15 or in the second round.  And if we end up with someone like Grier, Rypien, or Minshew instead of Jones or Lock, then I could see us simultaneously making a smaller move to bring in a credible bridge vet like Tyrod Taylor, rolling with three QBs on the roster, and having an open competition for the starting job in camp.

Edited by stevemcqueen1
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1 hour ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

I'm not sure about this.  Alex Smith's career as a starting QB is over, which means we have no starting quarterback.  He's going to either retire or be put on IR for next season.

 

Pretty much the entire coaching staff will 100% get fired if we have another losing season with no QB on the roster.

 

We don't have the money to go after Foles.  Drafting a kid who can start as a rookie and/or give us hope for the future is absolutely the only chance this staff has of making it past next season.

 

We're going to be drafting a QB of some sort, I don't think that's in question.  It's a matter of who.  It'd be nice to get Murray or Haskins, but I'm not sure our staff will be empowered to give up a huge package of picks to move up for them.  The more likely scenario is picking from the second, third, and fourth tiers at the position at 15 or in the second round.  And if we end up with someone like Grier, Rypien, or Minshew instead of Jones or Lock, then I could see us simultaneously making a smaller move to bring in a credible bridge vet like Tyrod Taylor, rolling with three QBs on the roster, and having an open competition for the starting job in camp.

Agreed. The HC and GM jobs are hopefully on the line so they will look for a splash. They must take a QB. I also think they will look for a speedy WR before they look at def in the draft.  I dont see them bringing T Taylor in if Colt is their guy. Probably more like a Josh Johnson. I would rather Taylor than Colt whose fragile and weenie arm doesn't cut the mustard or an overrated and over paid Foles type. Taylor wont win many games but should be relatively inexpensive, has some experience, is mobile and has stayed somewhat healthy. He could start for a bit and hope they give the draft pick time to sit and learn. 

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7 hours ago, Anselmheifer said:

other than arm strength and the fact that Haskins has been in much more of a pro-style system, is that Haskins has shown a proficiency to completing passes to WR's that are well covered.  In the NFL, difference may be magnified. 

 

I've checked out mentally on Haskins.  If you had to give up three #1 picks and a #2 to move from 4 to #2.  Imagine from #15 to the same range?  I've heard beat guys say recently the FO is gun shy from giving up a kings ransom to move up for a QB after RG3 so am betting Haskins isn't on their mind.  But you never know.

 

7 hours ago, Anselmheifer said:


I was thinking about our FO this evening, and I think they might be more patient than a lot of us were thinking

 

the FO might be.  But according to JLC Dan isn't feeling too impatient about making a splash.  Does that translate to the QB position?  Got no clue.  Will find out.  Just about everyone who covers the team says its going down.  But plenty though think its more likely happening in the 2nd-3rd round range than first.  Will see.

 

I was just listening to a PFF guy talk about the QBS.  He heard Denver (saw multiple people say something similar before) loves Drew Lock so you probably have to jump ahead of them to grab him.  He thinks Jones and Lock are better than Grier but thinks Grier can sneak into the first round.   He thinks Lock can end up going before Murray.

 

7 hours ago, Anselmheifer said:


Also, Hockenson would be a great first round pick. I don't know if I see him falling to us. I also still really like Byron Murphy and Jachai Polite at that spot. I also still think there is some chance that Devin White falls. Devin White and Reuben Foster, behind Payne and Allen and Ioannidis, would be fierce. 

 

Am becoming a big Hockenson guy.  The dude could be Gronk Part 2.  I think there is a shot he's there at 15.  Was thinking who are the ones going al;most for sure before 15.

 

Nick Bosa

Quinnen Williams

Ed Oliver

C. Ferrell

Josh Allen

R. Gary -- though he seems to be a wild card in mocks

Quarterbacks tend to go early:  Haskins, Lock, D. Jones, K. Murray

Guessing 2 corners go because they tend to go earlier than expected typically:  Murphy, G. Williams?

Guessing 2 O lineman go because they also tend to go earlier than expected:  2 of these guys?  J. Williams?  C. Fprd. J. Taylor, G. Little?

 

If it goes down that way, that's 14 players, leaving a pool of:   D. White, Hockenson, J. Simmons, C. Ford, J. Polite, D. Baker or one of the three top corners, DK. Metcalf, M. Brown.

 

 

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I will go on record saying I believe Ed Oliver will have the biggest impact out of this upcoming draft... Somehow I hope he lasts til 15... I understand he's not a perfect 3-4 fit, however, we are in 4-2-5 the majority of the time. 

 

Ideal situation, 3-tech in a 4-3.

 

Edited by SemperFi Skins
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Looks like the Senior Bowl practices start today. I'm used to reading about them on GBNreport, just because they have a lot of updates. Are there any better places to follow the action?

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I just want to say thank you to all the people who put time into this thread. I for one really appreciate all the research and input y’all put into it! Will be reading this thread religiously and hopefully have a better idea on what’s available for the Skins!

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36 minutes ago, SemperFi Skins said:

I will go on record saying I believe Ed Oliver will have the biggest impact out of this upcoming draft... Somehow I hope he lasts til 15... I understand he's not a perfect 3-4 fit, however, we are in 4-2-5 the majority of the time.  

 

Among the non-QBs, I agree.  Hard for a DT to match the impact of a successful QB though.  I think Murray and Haskins will be the two most impactful guys from the class.

 

Right now I've only got two situations where Oliver wouldn't be the BPA at 15 if he were somehow still available at our pick: Murray/Haskins are inexplicably still on the board, or Josh Allen is still there.

 

I think Allen is a top three lock, and a likely selection for San Francisco at 2 if they keep their pick.  And I suspect they probably will, because teams aren't going to need to leapfrog the Jets to get a QB.  The Jets are a much more likely candidate to trade down than SF.

 

I think Murray goes #1 overall to Arizona, and that Haskins will go #3.

 

Oliver is the one who has a chance to make it to us, even though it's unlikely.

 

Oliver's fit is an interesting question.  He's a natural A gap rusher, so you can play him at the one tech in passing situations.  Good B gap rusher and his ability to defend the B gap against the run makes him a natural 3 tech on run downs.  But if his arms are long enough, that means 4 and 5 tech are on the table too.

 

An interior DL corps of Allen, Payne, and Oliver would be hellaciously talented.  Arguably the most athletic group of DTs in the NFL.  They would be impossible to deal with for any interior offensive line, and they would give us a chance of disrupting offenses quarterbacked by guys like Brees and Brady.

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29 minutes ago, Anselmheifer said:

Looks like the Senior Bowl practices start today. I'm used to reading about them on GBNreport, just because they have a lot of updates. Are there any better places to follow the action?

 

Twitter tends to go to town on it, I follow most of the draft geeks that are there.  When I have time I'll post some of the nuggets some here might find interesting.

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Just now, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

 

I'm assuming you have Bosa at #2?

 

I agree with Murray and Haskins though I think this year the QB's will be overvalued due to the need for quite a few teams to turn around their organizations fairly quickly. If we had the #1, I would absolutely take Murray. I have no shame in saying that. I love the kid...

 

For me, I question the mentality of the Bosa brothers. They come off as kids with their head in the clouds. They have all-world talent but I don't believe they truly have the heart for the game. 

 

I think San Fran goes Bosa over Allen, and I am happy as a clam. We then just have to hope teams worry about Oliver's size to let him slip to 15. Houston Reps came out and said that 282 lbs was too much for Olivers frame. Ideally, he gets down to 270 and fills out. His quickness and first step are unmatched...

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6 minutes ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

Among the non-QBs, I agree.  Hard for a DT to match the impact of a successful QB though.  I think Murray and Haskins will be the two most impactful guys from the class.

 

Right now I've only got two situations where Oliver wouldn't be the BPA at 15 if he were somehow still available at our pick: Murray/Haskins are inexplicably still on the board, or Josh Allen is still there.

 

I think Allen is a top three lock, and a likely selection for San Francisco at 2 if they keep their pick.  And I suspect they probably will, because teams aren't going to need to leapfrog the Jets to get a QB.  The Jets are a much more likely candidate to trade down than SF.

 

I think Murray goes #1 overall to Arizona, and that Haskins will go #3.

 

Oliver is the one who has a chance to make it to us, even though it's unlikely.

 

Oliver's fit is an interesting question.  He's a natural A gap rusher, so you can play him at the one tech in passing situations.  Good B gap rusher and his ability to defend the B gap against the run makes him a natural 3 tech on run downs.  But if his arms are long enough, that means 4 and 5 tech are on the table too.

 

An interior DL corps of Allen, Payne, and Oliver would be hellaciously talented.  Arguably the most athletic group of DTs in the NFL.  They would be impossible to deal with for any interior offensive line, and they would give us a chance of disrupting offenses quarterbacked by guys like Brees and Brady.

I don’t think there’s anyway Arizona goes Murray #1 overall. There’s no way they give up on Rosen after one year for one Rosen has a lot of talent and 2 that would mean their GM is admitting he made a massive mistake last year.

Edited by Mrshadow008

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9 minutes ago, SemperFi Skins said:

 

I'm assuming you have Bosa at #2?

 

I agree with Murray and Haskins though I think this year the QB's will be overvalued due to the need for quite a few teams to turn around their organizations fairly quickly. If we had the #1, I would absolutely take Murray. I have no shame in saying that. I love the kid...

 

For me, I question the mentality of the Bosa brothers. They come off as kids with their head in the clouds. They have all-world talent but I don't believe they truly have the heart for the game.  

  

I think San Fran goes Bosa over Allen, and I am happy as a clam. We then just have to hope teams worry about Oliver's size to let him slip to 15. Houston Reps came out and said that 282 lbs was too much for Olivers frame. Ideally, he gets down to 270 and fills out. His quickness and first step are unmatched... 

 

My prediction is Allen goes #2 to SF.  Better all around player and cleaner prospect.  I could see them picking Quinnen Williams at #2 as well, since they do need a one technique.  But Allen is the best value for them.  They have nothing on either edge of their defense and nothing in the LBer corps.

 

I think Bosa will go 4th overall to Oakland.  That leaves Tampa Bay picking Quinnen Williams at 5 if they go BPA, but corner would also be a possibility.

 

I would take Murray first overall too.  I think he's the best player in the class.  I see a very impressive mix of Russell Wilson and Baker Mayfield in his game.

 

 

26 minutes ago, Mrshadow008 said:

I don’t think there’s anyway Arizona goes Murray #1 overall. There’s no way they give up on Rosen after one year for one Rosen has a lot of talent and 2 that would mean their GM is admitting he made a massive mistake last year. 

 

The Bidwills and Steve Keim already admitted to making a massive mistake last offseason by firing Steve Wilks after just one year.  I think they're going to trade Rosen while he still has some value and let Kingsbury get his own guy with the #1 pick.

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4 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Am becoming a big Hockenson guy.  The dude could be Gronk Part 2.  I think there is a shot he's there at 15.  Was thinking who are the ones going al;most for sure before 15.

 

Nick Bosa

Quinnen Williams

Ed Oliver

C. Ferrell

Josh Allen

R. Gary -- though he seems to be a wild card in mocks

Quarterbacks tend to go early:  Haskins, Lock, D. Jones, K. Murray

Guessing 2 corners go because they tend to go earlier than expected typically:  Murphy, G. Williams?

Guessing 2 O lineman go because they also tend to go earlier than expected:  2 of these guys?  J. Williams?  C. Fprd. J. Taylor, G. Little?

 

4 QBs before pick 15?  Yes, they go early but wow that would have a big ripple effect on the draft.  Teams at the bottom of the first round would be ecstatic.  I'm only looking at mocks at the moment but TE's Noah Fant, Hockenson and Irv Smith are often in the 2nd round (or at best one might be at the bottom of the 1st round).  Of course, there are a zillion mocks and they change all the time.  I'd like to see how Hockenson performs that the combine to gauge how he stacks up against the top TEs taken in prior years.       

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http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000001012558/article/daniel-jeremiahs-top-50-prospects-for-2019-nfl-draft-10

 

Daniel Jeremiah's Top 50 are faaar different than normal.  We've started hitting that time in the pre-draft process where everyone's mocks start looking way different.  Senior Bowl, Combine, and then two weeks into Free Agency.

 

He's not a big fan of this CB class, lots of borderline 1st/2nd rounders.  He loves this TE class (easy to do).  He thinks this OT class is better, but the "lead OT" in most mocks he has as a Guard.

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Here are where QBs fall in a group of rankings recently published. Point being is to show that the consensus is that there are no elite prospects and the Redskins under no circumstance should trade up for a QB.  Best bet is still to wait a year (or 2) imo.

 

NFL.coms Daniel Murray QBs ranked in the top 32.

15. Dwayne Haskins 

23. Drew Lock

24. Daniel Jones

29. Kyle Murray

 

CBS Sportsline 

13. Haskins

23. Murray

30. Lock

 

SI.com (Just top 20)

12. Haskins

 

Bleacher

14. Haskins

23. Jones

 

DraftTek

6. Haskins

11. Murray

 

Walter

27. Lock

29. Haskins

32. Jones

 

 

 

 

 

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23 minutes ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

Gotta go QB in R1 or 2. Which sucks. But the Smith news makes me think we are pidgeon-holed into early QB 

Why do we have to go QB?  Going QB when there aren't good prospects available is just asking to be set back even further.  Any-hoo if we do, it is more likely than not going to be a  major reach (sometime those pay off - sometimes but not usually). Given the weakness the Redskins have demonstrated in evaluating talent over the years I'd rather avoid reaching. 

Edited by nonniey
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13 minutes ago, nonniey said:

Why do we have to go QB?  Going QB when there aren't good prospects available is just asking to be set back even further.  Any-hoo if we do, it is more likely than not going to be a  major reach (sometime those pay off - sometimes but not usually). Given the weakness the Redskins have demonstrated in evaluating talent over the years I'd rather avoid reaching. 

 

They almost certainly have to go QB in either R1, or at the very worst R2.  The Redskins put themselves in this position in the first place.  You have a coach who is virtually a dead man walking next season, and you have fans that won't renew season tickets by the hundreds, if not thousands.  They almost have no choice BUT to draft a QB.  They should've drafted one last season, instead of drafting Alex Smith.  That move set them back years.  I would imagine that the Skins have dozens of scouts at the Senior Bowl today, with an eye on the QB's on display.  I think they'll pick either Lock, or Jones with the 15th pick.  Worst case scenario is them drafting back in the 1st, and nabbing Will Grier.

 

The Redskins FO is the dumbest FO in sports, but even they recognize the need to draft a franchise QB.  A franchise QB brings excitement and hope to an already eroding fan base.  There is also a pretty good chance that that QB will play next year when our starter (McCoy) gets injured.

Edited by samy316

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11 minutes ago, samy316 said:

 

They almost certainly have to go QB in either R1, or at the very worst R2.  The Redskins put themselves in this position in the first place.  You have a coach who is virtually a dead man walking next season, and you have fans that won't renew season tickets by the hundreds, if not thousands.  They almost have no choice BUT to draft a QB.  They should've drafted one last season, instead of drafting Alex Smith.  That move set them back years.  I would imagine that the Skins have dozens of scouts at the Senior Bowl today, with an eye on the QB's on display.  I think they'll pick either Lock, or Jones with the 15th pick.  Worst case scenario is them drafting back in the 1st, and nabbing Will Grier.

 

The Redskins FO is the dumbest FO in sports, but even they recognize the need to draft a franchise QB.  A franchise QB brings excitement and hope to an already eroding fan base.  There is also a pretty good chance that that QB will play next year when our starter (McCoy) gets injured.

So lets say the Redskins do reach for the QB, but end up with a top 10 pick next year with a new coaching staff (Highly likely imo). What do they do then?  The New Coach is looking at the choice of drafting his own Qb who almost certainly would be higher rated than the guy the Redskins picked in 2019 or sticking with the lesser QB.  

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11 minutes ago, nonniey said:

So lets say the Redskins do reach for the QB, but end up with a top 10 pick next year with a new coaching staff (Highly likely imo). What do they do then?  The New Coach is looking at the choice of drafting his own Qb who almost certainly would be higher rated than the guy the Redskins picked in 2019 or sticking with the lesser QB.  

 

I agree.  If we think we're likely getting a new HC in 2020, it will severely limit our options for guys wanting to come here if they feel shackled to a meh QB.

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28 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Sorry having Internet issues, catching up now

SIP, I think I and most everyone can say the Skins will be taking a QB with their 1st or 2nd pick in the draft.  :)  Thanks for all the info.  Your fast bro.

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14 hours ago, Anselmheifer said:

 

Regarding Grier, someone here stated that he hasn't had to throw into tight windows. I think Grier has been good at throwing players open, and dropping the ball in the bucket on those long passes, but the biggest difference between Grier and Haskins, other than arm strength and the fact that Haskins has been in much more of a pro-style system, is that Haskins has shown a proficiency to completing passes to WR's that are well covered.  In the NFL, difference may be magnified. 

 

I actually think Grier is just as good as Haskins at completing passes to WRs that are well covered, especially on deep balls. If you watch both of their highlights you see them both do it quite often. Also remember that Haskins had one of the best WRs in the nation in Campbell to throw to; he'll probably be a 1st rounder or maybe a high 2nd depending on his combine performance. Grier's top two guys (Sills and Jennings) are both ok but are likely mid-late round picks or even UDFAs. Not saying that diminishes the talent of Haskins (it doesn't) but having such a mediocre stable of guys to throw to generally means they're less likely to get good separation from DBs.

 

I do echo your concern regarding Grier when it comes to the offensive system. Haskins definitely comes from a more pro style setup so the learning curve is likely less there. Haskins has better arm strength but I think Grier's is underrated to a degree. From the game cutups I've seen he can make all the throws just fine and has a really pretty deep ball. He certainly ain't a Favre but he also definitely isn't a Pennington. By NFL standards I'd probably say his arm strength would be average to slightly below average.

 

One other concern I have about Grier is his age. No he isn't Brandon Weeden or anything but because of the year suspension he had he'll be 24 going into his first NFL season. Not a huge deal but it would make it harder to pick him early and let him sit and learn a bit as opposed to a guy who is 21-22.

 

On another note regarding Grier I was pleasantly surprised by his Senior Bowl weigh in. Some people questioned whether he was really 6'2 215 as listed or was closer to 6'1 or even a bit less and leaner (I have to admit he looked a little small to me at times as well), but he came in at 6'2 1/2 and 218 lbs. Good hand size as well at 9 1/2.

 

Speaking of that, holy crap Drew Lock has some SMALL hands. 9 inches for a guy who's north of 6'3 1/2 is crazy.

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