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2019 Comprehensive Draft Thread

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On 1/17/2019 at 8:00 PM, Skinsinparadise said:

 

 


I might be starting to fall in line with the guys who want to suck this year for 2020. Not because I think the 2020 guys are better than Haskins, but because I think we have a chance to really solidify our defense and if we are bad enough next year, we will be choosing in a more natural QB range. It's just a better long term use of resources if you wind up with a QB that is just as good. I'm still not convinced that Tua is better than Haskins. And I think Haskins is significantly better than Fromm and Herbert. 

In terms of resource allocation, I think that teams find CB's with much more ease in the later rounds. Maybe it's just my mistaken impression, but I feel like most 12 sack pass rushers are first round guys. I think I'd be inclined to draft Polite over Murphy if their grade is equal, just based on positional value. I think Murphy is the better player though, honestly, and also fits a need. Thoughts?

 

edit: Most of these guys were higher picks. 

http://www.espn.com/nfl/statistics/player/_/stat/defense/sort/sacks/seasontype/2

Edited by Anselmheifer
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On 1/17/2019 at 7:46 PM, PlayAction said:

 

Yes, shoring up the OL is a must this offseason but at 15 you never know who is going to be available.  With the first four Redskin picks I'd like to get OL, WR, TE, and EDGE in no particular order.  But if the better players happen to be ILB, CB, DT and S I would still be happy.    

 

Yes we definitely have to go BPA. I am saying not to reach for a flashy position, if it's not a playmaker.

 

Where we pick, the best Interior Lineman is usually on the board. If there is a dominant athletic Guard or Center, they make a huge impact on our offense.

 

If BPA is someone like Daylon Mack DL, or Takitaki MLB, I would draft them. They are game changers.

 

We need a game changer, a playmaker, or that Interior Lineman to dominate the line of scrimmage. Those players make everyone on our team better.

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4 minutes ago, Anselmheifer said:


I might be starting to fall in line with the guys who want to suck this year for 2020. Not because I think the 2020 guys are better than Haskins, but because I think we have a chance to really solidify our defense and if we are bad enough next year, we will be choosing in a more natural QB range. It's just a better long term use of resources if you wind up with a QB that is just as good. I'm still not convinced that Tua is better than Haskins. And I think Haskins is significantly better than Fromm and Herbert. 

In terms of resource allocation, I think that teams find CB's with much more ease in the later rounds. Maybe it's just my mistaken impression, but I feel like most 12 sack pass rushers are first round guys. I think I'd be inclined to draft Polite over Murphy if their grade is equal, just based on positional value. I think Murphy is the better player though, honestly, and also fits a need. Thoughts?

 

edit: Most of these guys were higher picks. 

http://www.espn.com/nfl/statistics/player/_/stat/defense/sort/sacks/seasontype/2

 

The problem is I just dont think we will be bad enough. Our Oline and D line are pretty good. Add in a possible Guice/Peterson/Thompson backfield, and I dont see losing more than 10 games. I dont think we'd win more than 8, but my point still stands. 

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Watching Sutherland Guard from Texas A&M. He's controlling his man in the pass protection. He's moving guys out the way and getting to the second level in the run game. This is in the East West game so far.

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This Center from the East, Allegretti. Peterson, Guice, everyone on our offense would benefit. 

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2 hours ago, skinny21 said:

 

@AnselmheiferI get your point, but I’d bet Winovich is far from a glorified backup caliber like Anderson.  He’s a monster that I believe would be an immediate upgrade from the Anderson/Smith/Murphy types we’ve trotted out.  He strikes me as faster, more relentless, meaner and a better technician than those guys.  Maybe better to say he’s got all of the positive qualities of those guys with added quickness and fieriness.  

 

 

I hadn't really watched Winovich this year and was basing  my assessment off sacks. I still think we would benefit tremendously from a double digit guy at ROLB. A guy that teams have to account for. A guy that allows Allen and Payne and Kerrigan to collect more sacks because teams have to pay attention to him, rather than a guy that gets 6-8 sacks while benefiting off of the increased attention paid to our excellent DL. 

 

I still don't think Winovich is that guy, but I did him a disservice comparing him to Murphy and Anderson. I just watched some highlights and Winovich has some real speed. I know the look and hair and demonstrative attitude are reminiscent of Clay Matthews, but I don't think that's a fair comp. Clay Matthews was just a late bloomer. He didn't produce in college, but added a bunch of weight while getting faster and then had a blistering 10 yard split at the combine. I don't think Winovich has a special get off the way that Matthews did, and I wouldn't count on him to be as special a pass rusher for that reason. 


Edit: I do think Winovich could have some value as a backup guy and would be better than any of our current back-ups. I'm not sure in what round I'd be happy with him. Third? Fourth? I think we have more pressing needs in the first two rounds and expect better prospects to be available at those picks. 

Edited by Anselmheifer

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@Anselmheifer fair enough - it’s a difference of opinion.  I also think that while he’s worth a 1st round pick IMO, the nature of the draft - the huge amount of quality dlinemen, the handful of corners, the talented edge class, the likelihood that several qbs go in the first, and the few olinemen/receivers with 1st round grades - coupled with his injury likely depressing his combine, means he probably goes in the second.  

 

For me personally, it’s not the look/attitude that makes me think of Matthews, it’s the tenacity and the never stay blocked style of play that make the comp.  It’s not just the hot motor, it’s the way he combines it with smarts and technique to get it done.  

 

 

Ooh, found a new corner (to me) - Essang Bassey from WF.   His N.C. State game was terrific.  Finlay avoided him most of the game and when he did throw to Bassey’s receiver, Bassey made plays.  I think he’s going to be a high quality corner in the league.  

 

Credit to this dude for turning me onto him...

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/dynastyfootballfactory.com/a-sleeper-for-each-position-in-the-2019-nfl-draft/amp/

 

Edited by skinny21
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https://www.behindthesteelcurtain.com/2019/1/15/18177909/2019-nfl-draft-prospects-nc-state-ilb-germaine-pratts-well-rounded-traits-make-him-alluring-steelers

 

Still on the Germaine Pratt Bandwagon. The skins sucked against the pass. Pratt and some help at CB/passrusher could really help remedy that. Click the link and look at the first video clip. That is Pratt lined up in coverage, down the field, on a slot WR, against UNC. Good coverage and come up with the INT. I watch the whole Clemson game cut-up for Pratt, and in that game, there were multiple occasions in which NC State lined up Pratt up outside covering a WR. He also had 6 sacks this year. And he's 6'3" and 240 pounds. 

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@Anselmheifer

That link I posted above was a list of sleeper prospects and Pratt was one of them (dude was very complimentary).  Haven’t watched much film yet, but look forward to it.  

Edited by skinny21

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6 minutes ago, skinny21 said:

@Anselmheifer

That link I posted above was a list of sleeper prospects and Pratt was one of them (dude was very complimentary).  Haven’t watched much film yet, but so look forward to it.  

That's funny. I just saw that. He's getting a lot of under the radar momentum. I think he's going to test well and be a second round pick. 

 

Here is some Essang Bassey. I think there are going to be a fair number of really good 2nd to 5th Rd CB's this year, even though there isn't that one Patrick Peterson type prospect. 

 

 

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2 hours ago, pcbothwel said:

 

The problem is I just dont think we will be bad enough. Our Oline and D line are pretty good. Add in a possible Guice/Peterson/Thompson backfield, and I dont see losing more than 10 games. I dont think we'd win more than 8, but my point still stands. 

 

The Skins are 7-9 and most of their 7 wins were by a thread.  I'm guessing that Alex Smith is out for most of next season.  If the Skins start Colt McCoy but don't benefit from vastly improved WR play then I have a hard time seeing the team improve from 7-9.  Let's say they are in the 5-7 win range which translates somewhere between pick 5 and 16.  That's a huge range but with the number of highly touted QBs maybe it will be easier to pay the cost to trade up.  IMO the question is how you rate the quality of the 4th best QB in the 2020 draft - if he's rated higher than the #2 QB in this draft then definitely wait.

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IF Murray falls in your lap you take him at #15.

Some sites in their mock have us taking a WR at #15. I hope not we go this route. 

Edited by zskins

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53 minutes ago, zskins said:

Some sites in their mock have us taking a WR at #15. I hope not we go this route. 

 

WR rankings are all over the board at the moment.  I think we will have to wait until the combine to see whether any stand out enough to be a reasonable value at #15.  There are going to be some quality picks at different positions available at 15.  But, I hope the Skins go for an X receiver this year (maybe in round 2 if a quality one is available).

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9 hours ago, Anselmheifer said:

 

That Daniel Ford mock draft is a little interesting. I'd note that both he and Kiper have Byron Murphy falling pretty far, and neither have Will Grier in the first. Ford has Greedy Williams falling to 16. 

 

Cody Ford is intriguing to me, he can play guard and also RT. The dude is a mauler.  LG is clearly a mess.  And heck Moses seems beat up every year and is a penalty machine -- decent player but I think a bit overrated.   But if we are going to go sans a stud QB, lets go monster O line and have a mauler playing both guard positions to help the run game. 

 

Will Grier is rarely in the first round in any mock.  I don't trust myself judging Big 12 Qbs playing in spread offenses.    I was among others who fell for RG3.  On the same token, I dig Will Grier, he's fun to watch -- dodges pressure well in the pocket, plays with moxie.  Seems to have that "it" factor as being a leader type on the field  But not sure what to make of QBs who shred atrocious defenses like Oklahoma.  

 

PFF loves the dude. Otherwise draft geeks seem mixed about him.   Some don't see him more than a backup.  I think the Senior Bowl coming up will be huge for him because as far as I can tell among the top prospects people are the most divided about him.  Murray too but the divide on him seems to be all about his size. 

Edited by Skinsinparadise
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I’m with you @Skinsinparadise - I like Grier a lot, but there are some concerns/question marks.  Got me to thinking about the theory of taking him early.  Gives us a chance at a good qb (perhaps even a franchise guy), but we also give up the chance to add a difference maker.  On the flip side, if they drafted him and it didn’t work out, we’re more likely to finally rid ourselves of Allen without expending additional resources - additional picks or (much/most of our) cap.  

Obviously there’s also a good chance he performs ‘ok’ and therefore Snyder goes with the status quo into 2020.  In which case we 1) then don’t try to get a top qb, 2) likely continue the win-now philosophy, and 3) continue to pick around the middle of the draft.  

 

I could get behind Grier if we either traded back in the first to take him (adding a pick/picks), or took him in the 2nd.  I’d rather not trade up in the 2nd, but if they really like him and didn’t give up much... well, it could be worse.  

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47 minutes ago, skinny21 said:

I’m with you @Skinsinparadise - I like Grier a lot, but there are some concerns/question marks.  Got me to thinking about the theory of taking him early.  Gives us a chance at a good qb (perhaps even a franchise guy), but we also give up the chance to add a difference maker.  On the flip side, if they drafted him and it didn’t work out, we’re more likely to finally rid ourselves of Allen without expending additional resources - additional picks or (much/most of our) cap.  

Obviously there’s also a good chance he performs ‘ok’ and therefore Snyder goes with the status quo into 2020.  In which case we 1) then don’t try to get a top qb, 2) likely continue the win-now philosophy, and 3) continue to pick around the middle of the draft.  

 

I could get behind Grier if we either traded back in the first to take him (adding a pick/picks), or took him in the 2nd.  I’d rather not trade up in the 2nd, but if they really like him and didn’t give up much... well, it could be worse.  

I don't think Grier makes it to our 2nd round pick.  We would need to trade down and gather extra picks like your saying, S21.

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5 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Will Grier is rarely in the first round in any mock.  I don't trust myself judging Big 12 Qbs playing in spread offenses.    I was among others who fell for RG3.  On the same token, I dig Will Grier, he's fun to watch -- dodges pressure well in the pocket, plays with moxie.  Seems to have that "it" factor as being a leader type on the field  But not sure what to make of QBs who shred atrocious defenses like Oklahoma.  

 


Regarding the big 12 assessment, Grier put up a very good completion percentage and TD to interception ratio as a freshman at Florida.  YPA wasn't as good, but he was a freshman. I can't help but wonder what kind of numbers he would have put up at Oklahoma, with better weapons and a better team around him. He's the opposite of Drew Lock. Grier always looks comfortable. His mobility is also great. PFF has him as the best deep passer over the last 2 years. I can't find the link, but they also had him as amongst the best when facing pressure. I would honestly feel better about Grier than Murray. Maybe I am overestimating the importance of Murray's lack of stature. I've just never seen a QB his size have success. 

 

https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/will-grier-1.html

 

 

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8 hours ago, RWJ said:

I don't think Grier makes it to our 2nd round pick.  We would need to trade down and gather extra picks like your saying, S21.

I had proposed something similar earlier in this thread. Trade back from 15 to 25-27 (Philly, Indy, Oak)  and pick up an extra 2nd round pick. Get Grier in late rd 1. Best OG with our 2-15 and hopefully trade 2-27 for a 2020 first rounder. 

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Interesting safety prospect. Looks like he has great speed and is physical. He looks good in coverage. Not a ball hawk. There were multiple PD's in this video that should have been INT's. I think he could be a very good SS. Turns out we need one of those. 

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9 hours ago, RWJ said:

I don't think Grier makes it to our 2nd round pick.  We would need to trade down and gather extra picks like your saying, S21.

I think you’re probably right.  Giving him a broader range due to the number of qb needy teams and the iffy nature of the position in this draft, I could see him going anywhere from mid-first to mid 2nd, with late first to early second being the most likely landing spot.  

 

Thing is, there’s a pretty good consensus that Lock has the arm and size but also significant issues (attitude, facing pressure), and Jones has people saying “hell no”.  So, depending on how the combine and interviews go, I’m not sure why teams would ignore what we’re seeing and take those two long before Grier.  Doesn’t really make sense to me, but (and this puts a hole in the above theory), I’m just a fan, so what do I know.  

1 hour ago, bowhunter said:

I had proposed something similar earlier in this thread. Trade back from 15 to 25-27 (Philly, Indy, Oak)  and pick up an extra 2nd round pick. Get Grier in late rd 1. Best OG with our 2-15 and hopefully trade 2-27 for a 2020 first rounder. 

I’d be happy with that I think, though I tend to doubt 2-27 (or whatever) would garner a 2020 first due to the 5th year option rule).   

 

@Anselmheifer good stuff, thanks for posting 

Edit:  I meant re. Grier, but yeah, I watched some of Gardner’s film and he looks like a solid prospect.  Whatever site I first saw him on had him listed as a corner, so I was a bit surprised to see him playing safety.    I think he could do either (and maybe either S spot), so he represents good value too.  

Edited by skinny21

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19 hours ago, Anselmheifer said:


I might be starting to fall in line with the guys who want to suck this year for 2020. Not because I think the 2020 guys are better than Haskins, but because I think we have a chance to really solidify our defense and if we are bad enough next year, we will be choosing in a more natural QB range. It's just a better long term use of resources if you wind up with a QB that is just as good. I'm still not convinced that Tua is better than Haskins. And I think Haskins is significantly better than Fromm and Herbert. 

 

Agree.  I haven't dived into Haskins much but watched some Ohio State games.  Love Tua's mobility, ability to throw on the run and deep ball.  To me the main questions about him is how much is his prowess about his stellar supporting cast and questions about his durability.  Haskins doesn't seem ultra mobile but does have some mobility and he looks like he's built like a tank.  But yeah the price to trade into the top 5 from 15 is likely to be steep whereas I think they have a decent chance to have a top 5 pick or at least top ten in 2020.   

 

I know some disagree that this team will take a step back next season, and on that front that's cool to each their own.  But I am not exactly on an island with that theory among others I saw one Vegas outfit predict the Redskins as being the 2nd worst team in the NFL next season.  Granted though the off season hasn't even begun so will see. 

 

9 hours ago, Anselmheifer said:


Regarding the big 12 assessment, Grier put up a very good completion percentage and TD to interception ratio as a freshman at Florida.  YPA wasn't as good, but he was a freshman. I can't help but wonder what kind of numbers he would have put up at Oklahoma, with better weapons and a better team around him. He's the opposite of Drew Lock. Grier always looks comfortable. His mobility is also great. PFF has him as the best deep passer over the last 2 years. I can't find the link, but they also had him as amongst the best when facing pressure. I would honestly feel better about Grier than Murray. Maybe I am overestimating the importance of Murray's lack of stature. I've just never seen a QB his size have success. 

 

https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/will-grier-1.html

 

Yeah I mentioned too PFF loves him.  But aside from them, I noticed some like but little love among the draft geeks.  Jeremiah likes him but compares him to Dalton.  The narrative is typically a variation of him playing purely out of the shotgun, inconsistent foot work, and lack of arm strength if he can't put his full body into throws.  On the other hand, I've seen some back the idea that he has good arm strength.  Senior Bowl should be really interesting for him.  I've watched 4 of Grier's games and personally I like him.  He seems to have that "it" vibe about him.

 

I just watched a taped version of the East-West game from yesterday.  2nd time for me watching Rypien.  He looks accurate and goes through progressions like an NFL QB at times, etc.  But from what I can see he doesn't do anything special.  He doesn't have a rocket arm.  He doesn't dodge pressure well or throw on the move or is mobile.  He looks about the size and stature of Colt but without the mobility.   My point is I am not saying the dude won't be able to play in the NFL but hard for me to see an upper echelon QB in his play and I get why some draft geeks just see him as an NFL backup. 

 

Having said that, I am obviously no scout/Qb expert so I can end up completely wrong.  Judging college QBs and how they will translate to the NFL is by far the toughest scouting job in sports according to personnel guys. 

 

 

 

Edited by Skinsinparadise
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9 hours ago, Anselmheifer said:

Maybe I am overestimating the importance of Murray's lack of stature. I've just never seen a QB his size have success. 

 

 

Russell Wilson is only 5-11 an inch taller and has a SB ring. 

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36 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I know some disagree that this team will take a step back next season, and on that front that's cool to each their own.  But I am not exactly on an island with that theory among others I saw one Vegas outfit predict the Redskins as being the 2nd worst team in the NFL next season.  Granted though the off season hasn't even begun so will see. 

 

 

Yeah I mentioned too PFF loves him.  But aside from them, I noticed some like but little love among the draft geeks.  Jeremiah likes him but compares him to Dalton.  The narrative is typically a variation of him playing purely out of the shotgun, inconsistent foot work, and lack of arm strength if he can't put his full body into throws.  On the other hand, I've seen some back the idea that he has good arm strength.  Senior Bowl should be really interesting for him.  I've watched 4 of Grier's games and personally I like him.  He seems to have that "it" vibe about him.

 

 

If the team doesn't find a QB we are taking a step back. We can't roll with Colt. I do expect them to do something at QB, whether it's FA or the draft. 

 

Also, if Grier winds up being Andy Dalton...I think we'd take Andy Dalton on this team right now. With this OL/DL and hopefully Guice? Without having to give up draft picks? We wouldn't win a super bowl maybe, but we'd potentially be in the playoff hunt every year. 

 

@Zskins: Russell Wilson is only 5-11 an inch taller and has a SB ring.


Maybe. Murray also has a tiny frame though. And you are taking the one exception in recent history and saying, "what about a little bit smaller...". I'm not saying Murray won't be a success. What I am saying is, there is no real precedent for a guy that size, and you are taking a big risk. I don't think that if it's never been done before that anyone can even argue that it's not a big risk. Maybe he's worth it. I don't espouse myself to be a QB scouting expert. It just makes me nervous. 

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19 minutes ago, zskins said:

 

Russell Wilson is only 5-11 an inch taller and has a SB ring. 

See, the issue for me is not his height (it’s a concern, but a... smaller one, ha!), it’s his weight/frame.  I have trouble seeing him holding up down the road.  His subtle elusiveness (his elusiveness isn’t subtle, but I’m talking about the smaller movements he makes to throw defenders off a bit) should help in terms of taking big hits, but he’s going to take some regardless.  I would have the same concern if he was 6’4 200 lbs.  I also don’t see his frame being able to carry much more weight, though I could be wrong. 

 

He is damn electric though and if we didn’t give up significant assets (multiple draft picks) to get him, I think the (dwindling) fan base might rally around his addition.  I know I would want a chance to see him in person.

While I can’t see Gruden going for it, I could see Allen taking him regardless knowing 1) it could help with fan attention, 2) it might buy him more time from Snyder, and 3) he could then move on from Gruden in 2020 if Gruden has problems utilizing him.  

Edited by skinny21

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16 minutes ago, Anselmheifer said:

 

If the team doesn't find a QB we are taking a step back. We can't roll with Colt. I do expect them to do something at QB, whether it's FA or the draft. 

 

Listening to some who cover the team they might indeed do that if a QB they like doesn't drop to their spot. And I am cool with that because I think their position will be better to jump at one in 2020.  

 

16 minutes ago, skinny21 said:

 

He is damn electric though and if we didn’t give up significant assets (multiple draft picks) to get him, I think the (dwindling) fan base might rally around his addition.  I know I would want a chance to see him in person.

While I can’t see Gruden going for it, I could see Allen taking him regardless knowing 1) it could help with fan attention, 2) it might buy him more time from Snyder, and 3) he could then move on from Gruden in 2020 if Gruden has problems utilizing him.  

 

I posted an article a few minutes ago on the Bruce thread which suggests Dan might be in the mood in general to circumvent Jay.  So if by chance they have a shot at Murray wonder if Dan relives his 2012 infatuation for a ultra mobile Heisman Trophy winner and makes it happen anyway.  

 

16 minutes ago, Anselmheifer said:

 

Also, if Grier winds up being Andy Dalton...I think we'd take Andy Dalton on this team right now. With this OL/DL and hopefully Guice? Without having to give up draft picks? We wouldn't win a super bowl maybe, but we'd potentially be in the playoff hunt every year. 

 

 

Mentioned Dalton in terms of a draft geek who was high on Grier relatively speaking.   Plenty aren't high on him, I've noticed.  He seems to get the most mixed reviews among the top prospects and is typically in the 2nd round in most mocks.  Not saying the draft geeks have a handle on the dude.    But as for me, I trust myself less at QB than any other position because of the difficulty of getting it right. 

 

I am reading Bruce Arians book right now which is pretty much all about how he evaluates Qbs and a lot of it is about judging QBs in the draft.  He more or less said that unless he sees elite skills on tape, he used Big Ben as an example of that -- its really difficult for him to judge QBs without bringing them into the building where he can see how quickly they can process an NFL playbook and process that information on the field.   To that point, Grier in a way will be tested on that front some this coming week at the Senior Bowl.  So I think among the QBs his evaluation might be the most interesting.  

Edited by Skinsinparadise

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