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2019 Comprehensive Draft Thread


Going Commando

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2 hours ago, Long n Left said:

Josh Rosen is another Jeff George/Jay Cutler, million dollar arm, ten cent head.


Josh Rosen doesn't have nearly that level of arm. 

1 hour ago, Monk4thaHALL said:

Great comedy in here guys, thanks. 

 

It would be awesome if there was more discussion of specific prospects. 

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5 hours ago, PartyPosse said:

I would trade out 2nd rounder for Rosen and let him sit on the bench for the year.

I might use that 2nd rounder or a 3rd for Ryan Finley, NC State. 67% pass completion and 3,900-ish yards is 2nd best in this year’s QB class. His Gator Bowl game was pretty bad though. I think he coukd back up McCoy and likely become the starter sooner than later. 

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5 hours ago, Anselmheifer said:

It would be awesome if there was more discussion of specific prospects. 

 

I agree with you.  But I've made peace with the nature of these threads.  This is the tenth year that we've done a draft thread like this.  The ninth that has been styled as a "comprehensive" draft thread.  Over time, I've found that tending the conversation in these threads is like gardening.  Not so much styling a Bonsai, more like trying not to have your house and yard overrun with ivy.  You kind of prune it at the margins and surrender the wall to it's sprawling, chaotic growth.

 

I've learned that these things are constants: there will be lots of tangents.  There will be an eternal debate about BPA vs need.  There will be an eternal debate about what our needs even are.  There will be position value debates.  There will be lots of speculation about the personal lives and character of prospects.  There will be calls to change our defensive scheme.  There will be a ton of mock draft talk.  There will be crowing about strong prospect takes you got right in the past (nailed my projection of JJ Watt).  There will be minimal reflection about the strong takes you got very wrong (Blaine Gabbert who?).  There will be tremendous hindsight bias.  And there will be grass-is-greener procrastinations and man crushes over freshmen and sophomores and unrealistic calls to punt whole seasons to chase after them (All that Rosen One talk wasn't even that long ago).

 

I'm glad the mods have had a laissez-faire approach to these threads and that the conversations are so broad.  Creativity and analysis flourish in a chaotic but lively discussion.  Angry debates featuring strong takes from people who are way too confident in their insight can actually midwife learning and inspiration.  These threads give me a fix.  They let me have deep dive conversations about football with other obsessives and broadly discuss the college game that I love too.  They give me a positive way to cope with disappointment and losing.  And they give me a forum to discuss and analyze a hyper competitive prediction market, which is addictive.  Surrender to the ivy Anselmheifer.  It's good to veer back to specific prospect talk from time to time, but if we restricted the conversation to just prospect analysis, the thread would die from a lack of content because that's the hardest and most time consuming part.

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15 hours ago, JaxJoe said:

I might use that 2nd rounder or a 3rd for Ryan Finley, NC State. 67% pass completion and 3,900-ish yards is 2nd best in this year’s QB class. His Gator Bowl game was pretty bad though. I think he coukd back up McCoy and likely become the starter sooner than later. 

 

Been thinking more and more about Finley...I've watched all of his games at NCSU. Watched all of Rivers, Wilson, Glennon and Brissett as well. This is how i would compare my feelings about them coming out of college:

 

-Rivers - All Pro level NFL player

-Wilson - Very good NFL QB if on the right team (he landed on the perfect team).

-Glennon - Career Back Up - Great arm and size. Not much else.

-Brissett - Career Back Up - Not great at anything, not bad at anything - his performances filling in have actually been a bit surprising.

-Finley - Gut feeling is somewhere around Andy Dalton 2.0.

 

He is the hardest one to determine. Had the same OC his entire career, even from his time at Boise St before transferring...that familiarity gave him the ability to really run the offense...Could make all the throws you'd want, but not exceptional arm talent. Somewhat athletic but not much of a runner. Didn't see a ton of pressure. Against the best competition, his three games against Clemson, played ok and took an OT loss after a missed FG, played pretty well but threw a pick to end the game driving to tie, and then had one of his worst games of his career this year. Played his second worse game in the bowl this year but was missing his probably his #1 target.

 

I do think he would be able to start pretty quickly. He is a high floor/low ceiling guy, 24 years old...i would probably rather see him start over Colt in the short term...

 

I wouldn't draft him 2nd round. I probably would 3rd. But we would need to upgrade the receiving corp...though we could probably say that about any QB.

 

 

 

 

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22 hours ago, KDawg said:

 

I love the chaos. This is only good for the Redskins, though, if it happens. Rosen takes care of a QB needy team as does Murray.

 

Having said that, a 5-8 QB is a huge risk. And the news that Murray may declare for the draft is likely a leverage move. Murray is using baseball and football as leverage for his draft stock. It doesn't mean he's not going to declare/go to the combine. But it's smart business to see what he can get in both places.

 

The Arizona GM is now in a totally unenviable spot thanks to some comments from Kingsbury in October when he had no idea he was going to be coaching in the NFL on the team with the first overall draft choice. 

 

I'm still not sold on it. From Murray or the Cardinals. It's a ridiculously slippery slope.

 

Schefter floated it and now everybody's gone chasing it.  He said not implausible, not that it was likely or anything.  I think there's 0.00% chance they do this. Not to mention, Kingsbury said those comments the week of the TT/OK game.  He was just gassing up the opponent with coach speak, IMO.  Everybody's great, they're wonderful, yada, yada.

 

Kyler Murray is like Chris Thompson playing QB. If he actually measures out under 5'10", there's no way on earth he's going first overall.  Attitudes on small QBs havent changed that much.  

 

And by drafting Murray, they inherently de-value what they could get for Rosen.  

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47 minutes ago, justice98 said:

 

Schefter floated it and now everybody's gone chasing it.  He said not implausible, not that it was likely or anything.  I think there's 0.00% chance they do this. Not to mention, Kingsbury said those comments the week of the TT/OK game.  He was just gassing up the opponent with coach speak, IMO.  Everybody's great, they're wonderful, yada, yada.

 

Kyler Murray is like Chris Thompson playing QB. If he actually measures out under 5'10", there's no way on earth he's going first overall.  Attitudes on small QBs havent changed that much.  

 

And by drafting Murray, they inherently de-value what they could get for Rosen.  

 

The draft is crazy.  First time head coaches do crazy things in an effort to put their stamp on their organization.  Crazier things have happened in the past.  For instance, to me running off Jay Cutler and Brandon Marshall to go after Matt Cassel and Tim Tebow is twice as crazy as feeling a mistake was made with Josh Rosen and using your first pick to get the guy you really want.

 

And the thing is, I find myself agreeing with an assessment that Murray is a superior talent to Rosen.


Rosen wasn't any good last year.  There is nothing built yet.  Why not go out and get your guy who you want to be the foundation of your team for (hopefully) the decade of success you plan on having?

 

Also watch the clip where Kingsbury made those comments about Murray.  That wasn't typical praise for an upcoming opponent.  That was revealing an "I wish I was coaching this kid" man crush.  He's been following Kyler's career closely since he was in High School.

 

I don't think getting optimal value for Rosen is what will drive their decision making.  The more central decision will be about Murray.

 

I also don't think height will be what makes or breaks Murray.  It will be about whether or not Kingsbury truly loves him.  If he does, they're going to draft him first no matter what his height is.  So I think we'll either see a good number or no number at all--either he'll get a promise from the Cardinals and skip the combine measurements because neither he nor they will want a short height number out there in public.  OR, he really is 5-10/5-11 and he gets himself measured at the combine just to prove it.  I don't think we're going to see him measure a 508x and tumble in the draft as a result.

I also think that he's going to play baseball if he doesn't get picked in the first round.  It's going to be a weird dance where he and NFL teams feel each other out to extract promises/commitments from each other.

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Some more unscientific speculation on Murray's height: Baker Mayfield measured a 6058 at the combine, so we have him for scale.  Looking at pictures of the two of them together, it honestly doesn't look like Murray is that much shorter.

 

Here is a picture of him with teammate CeeDee Lamb, who is listed at 6030:

 

7a1a91e4d393e607f1eca02107cc6763-origina

 

What is that, like three or four inches difference?  Maybe he is close to 5-11.

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So, let me ask this...

 

We are heavily invested at QB for 2019 and 2020 no matter what. What that tells me is that we'll have to find someone to play the position even though we're paying millions to Smith and McCoy. Smith may not be ready and McCoy isn't durable. 

 

Through that lens, what is the downside of drafting Murray if he's there at 15? Maybe he learns from those guys a little and gets some playing time. If it doesn't work out, you didn't burn another 7-figure contract on a veteran...it was a draft pick and would be no more damaging than Doctson not working out. It also doesn't keep you from addressing QB in 2-3 years when Smith and possibly McCoy come off your books. 

 

In some ways, it's the IDEAL type of guy to add. 

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18 minutes ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

Some more unscientific speculation on Murray's height: Baker Mayfield measured a 6058 at the combine, so we have him for scale.  Looking at pictures of the two of them together, it honestly doesn't look like Murray is that much shorter.

 

Here is a picture of him with teammate CeeDee Lamb, who is listed at 6030:

 

7a1a91e4d393e607f1eca02107cc6763-origina

 

What is that, like three or four inches difference?  Maybe he is close to 5-11.

Wow. That's a tender embrace. They look a little like they are slow dancing. 


Hypothetically, what is YOUR take on him if he is 5'10"?

Also, people always talk about Wilson and Drew Brees when they discuss short QB's. The player in this draft that most reminds me of Drew Brees is Will Grier. Not that short at 6'2". Wins with ball placement, accuracy, ability to read a defense and get the ball to the right place. Best QB in the nation this year when facing pressure. I think Will Grier might be second on my QB board. I have yet to put Murray on the board. He might be better. 


Also, I tried watching Some Brees at Perdue to get a sense of his arm vs that of Will Grier. What do you guys think about their relative arm strength?


Lastly, Brees had pretty pedestrian numbers at Perdue. Completion percentage and TD's were pedestrian. TD to INT ratio was fine, but not astounding. What a lucky/good draft pick he was. 

 

https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/drew-brees-1.html

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Put me on the Kyler Murray fanboy bandwagon.

 

If Lamar Jackson can win 5 games and take the Ravens to the playoffs... we can win 7-9 games with him under the tutelage of Alex.

 

Dude seems a lot more sharp in decision making than Lamar.

 

On tape he looks like a shorter, faster Mahomes.

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13 minutes ago, Rogue Jedi said:

Put me on the Kyler Murray fanboy bandwagon.

 

If Lamar Jackson can win 5 games and take the Ravens to the playoffs... we can win 7-9 games with him under the tutelage of Alex.

 

Dude seems a lot more sharp in decision making than Lamar.

 

On tape he looks like a shorter, faster Mahomes.

 

I'm getting there too...there really isn't any downside if the plan is going to be Colt/Alex (once healthy) anyway. You can groom him behind those two (worked for Mahomes) and hope he develops. 

 

Really, we basically need our QB3 to be a rookie or a veteran minimum-type guy anyway. If he fails or chooses baseball, then you missed out on possibly adding another Payne/Allen type. That seems like a decent gamble to possibly add a QB-of-the-future. 

 

Edit: I will add that this assumes we can select him with our pick or a very slight trade-up. If you get into multiple firsts or something, the gamble is clearly too great. 

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1 hour ago, Anselmheifer said:

Wow. That's a tender embrace. They look a little like they are slow dancing. 


Hypothetically, what is YOUR take on him if he is 5'10"?

Also, people always talk about Wilson and Drew Brees when they discuss short QB's. The player in this draft that most reminds me of Drew Brees is Will Grier. Not that short at 6'2". Wins with ball placement, accuracy, ability to read a defense and get the ball to the right place. Best QB in the nation this year when facing pressure. I think Will Grier might be second on my QB board. I have yet to put Murray on the board. He might be better. 


Also, I tried watching Some Brees at Perdue to get a sense of his arm vs that of Will Grier. What do you guys think about their relative arm strength?


Lastly, Brees had pretty pedestrian numbers at Perdue. Completion percentage and TD's were pedestrian. TD to INT ratio was fine, but not astounding. What a lucky/good draft pick he was. 

 

https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/drew-brees-1.html

 

 

What makes it even better is they had the no. 1 overall pick that year... traded it to ATL for their no. 5 pick and some others.  ATL took Vick.  San Diego too Ladanian Tomlinson at no. 5, and Brees at no. 32 overall. 

 

We took Rod Gardner with our 1st round pick. 

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3 hours ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

Some more unscientific speculation on Murray's height: Baker Mayfield measured a 6058 at the combine, so we have him for scale.  Looking at pictures of the two of them together, it honestly doesn't look like Murray is that much shorter.

 

Here is a picture of him with teammate CeeDee Lamb, who is listed at 6030:

 

7a1a91e4d393e607f1eca02107cc6763-origina

 

What is that, like three or four inches difference?  Maybe he is close to 5-11.

A basketball analogy he is only 5'10 but plays like he is 6'4........

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In on murray. Would at least add level of excitement we haven’t had in a while. And if Smith is healthy we don’t have to rush his development. Go the mahomes route. 

 

Still dont trust this franchise to function correctly enough to get that done.

 

Given he’s a good fit in that “don’t have to trade up and mortgage future” range I’d take him. But idk if I would trade up. 

 

Still think him, Lock and Jones go in the first half of the draft with Haskins. Don’t be shocked if Denver goes Murray if he’s there 

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7 minutes ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

In on murray. Would at least add level of excitement we haven’t had in a while. And if Smith is healthy we don’t have to rush his development. Go the mahomes route. 

 

Still dont trust this franchise to function correctly enough to get that done.



 

Given he’s a good fit in that “don’t have to trade up and mortgage future” range I’d take him. But idk if I would trade up. 

 

Still think him, Lock and Jones go in the first half of the draft with Haskins. Don’t be shocked if Denver goes Murray if he’s there 

This team passed on Derwin James, who made first-team All-Pro in his rookie year, to get Da'Ron Payne. Not saying Payne is bad, but I don't think he gives the kind of impact that James does for a defense.

 

I completely lost faith in this FO to make the right move. If Murray is there at 15, this organization is too stupid to take someone with that kind of potential.

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@Rogue Jedi I think everyone expected James to be very good. 16 other teams and quite a few with Safety needs passed on him too. Anchoring our defensive line was a clear first priority last year and Payne will be a good one. Hindsight is 20/20. Yes we should have drafted James and Settle and been set for it. But we didn’t know we’d lose Swearinger, Nicholson, etc. and have Settle fall in our laps in around 5 

 

there are dozens of examples better than James > Payne ... but I feel you

 

I think the Safety market has been dramatically impacted and weakened over the last decade. Teams just don’t value it like they used to. And I think if Payne is a pro bowl level talent, we won’t second guess taking him over James too long

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