stevemcqueen1

2019 Comprehensive Draft Thread

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The guy who is about as clued in as you can get to a team's draft process has said the Bengals are taking Andre Dillard at #11.  He says Jonah Williams will be off the board, but if he falls, he's the pick instead.

 

For reference, he correctly picked 6 of the last 7 first rounders for the Bengals, and the lone miss was already taken before their pick.

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Man, I just don't know where the draft capital comes from.

 

I could see maybe getting away with trading our 2 or a 3+3 if we are moving from 15 to 9 ... but if it's to go to 3 I just don't see it.

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2 hours ago, Morrison J said:

Yep. It's horrendous. 

 

Please.  That was his worst game of the season, and it wasn't that bad.  I don't understand how anyone can watch the play at 5:30 and not realize this kid is ****ing special.  Also love the play at 8:40.  Bad snap which he handles.  Pumps the flat to get the slot corner to bite, gets McLaurin open than he feathers a 20 yard throw to him at the numbers for the first down.  That was a broken play from the start that usually ends with an incompletion or sack that a blue chip QB turns into a first down.

 

How about we take a look at that Michigan game too?  Shredded the #1 pass defense in the country.  Threw it 31 times and made like five incorrect reads total.  Blazing release.  Effortless velocity.  Awesome accuracy.  Ability to deliver the ball on the run.  Ability to turn negative situations into positive plays.  Ability to pick up yards on zone read runs.  Ability to work through his progressions to the right read.  Ability to fit NFL windows with ease.  In a game full of NFL prospects, Haskins was the best guy on the field by a mile.  If you and @volsmet want to see what actual horrendous quarterbacking looks like, watch what that Michigan pass defense did to Michigan State's QBs.

 

Most of you guys are tripping about Haskins.  Good Lord.  The only thing you guys need to worry about with Haskins is the Giants getting him at 6.  We would be unbelievably lucky to get him.  No pick could improve our future more than that.

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3 minutes ago, Alcoholic Zebra said:

The guy who is about as clued in as you can get to a team's draft process has said the Bengals are taking Andre Dillard at #11.  He says Jonah Williams will be off the board, but if he falls, he's the pick instead.

 

For reference, he correctly picked 6 of the last 7 first rounders for the Bengals, and the lone miss was already taken before their pick.

Interesting. That could open up some interesting falls. I think the sense was Bengals would go Bush, Hockenson, or QB.

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36 minutes ago, The Consigliere said:

 

Never a good plan. Even any run of the mill dolt could just pull up Alex Smith's profootballreference page to see his 2018 season was a colossal outlier and not repeatable, it was entirely a product of Kelce/Hill/Hunt/Wilson et all. Any deep dive into his efficiency #'s showed it. We bought high on a QB who was about to be past it, and was never a better than sub league average starter in terms of production. He was a captain check down option that was a poor fit for Richardson AND Doctson, was nearing the end of the line anyway, and we gave up a day 2 pick and a corner coming off a breakout season. It was incredibly foolish, and was laughed at HARD in many circles, especially the ones I really respect and try to learn from. 

 

It was just god awful. I appreciate the second paragraph, a beautiful piece of writing there. I just don't agree w/your approach though I think it underlines how our F.O. works and what it will choose to do. They aren't forward thinking, they're reactionary and a joke. They shouldn't care about getting more eyes on the team in 2018 or 2019, they should be focused on good process in team building. Build a winner, people come, do anything else, and you can't reliably predict interest or attention year to year, period. They should realize they're murdering their brand by avoiding at all costs accountability year to year. People are growing sicker and sicker of everything Redskins, it's that Aints/Bucs 1980's apathy metastasizing and considering the limbo Boulez fandom is in, fans are already pissed to begin with, knowing there is zero hope for Basketball for the next half decade, the Nats squandered six years of a quality roster failing to win a single series, and while Caps fandom finally paid off last year only delusional fans think it will last long term, the team is aging out and this might be the last hurrah of true contention (and if they win tonight, a huge if, they have a 1998 styled friendly path to the Stanley Cup Finals w/only one other top 4 seed having won its series in the East). Maybe they think now is the time to strike, but they're flat out wrong, this will take years plural.

 

1. Alex Smith produced wins. This cant be disputed. It doesnt matter how it looked, or if others were more productive (Kelce/Hill/Hunt/Wilson). The end result is that he was extremely successful in KC. More importantly, he was an even better mentor to both Kap and Mahomes, while providing vet production and leadership. Even in a down year- and last year certainly was statistically- he led the team to a 6-2 record because he didnt turn the ball over, let the strength of the team (defense and running the ball) control the game, and took over as leader. It would only be a foolish decision if we traded for him, he was healthy this year, and we didnt draft a qb. Richardson, Doctson, Crowder, and Quinn all got injured..

 

43 minutes ago, Skins Skeptic said:

Grier produced as well, but has the worst arm talent of the three and played in an offense heavy league. The comment that "it looks like it hurts when he throws the ball" is something I've seen. That raises questions about his ability to make all of the throws at an NFL level. Think Colt McCoy as opposed to an arm like Josh Allen's. I'm probably not doing Grier justice with this description. It's just my perception

 

Drew Brees also lacks a bit of arm strength and tends to put his whole body into throws. In this league its more about ball placement, and vision. If you have adequate arm strength, that is enough. As long as the ball hits the receiver in stride, and there is no lost movement, arm strength doesnt matter. Kyle Boller and Patrick Ramsey had great arm strength... Its more important to have accuracy, anticipation, vision, confidence, and drive.

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3 minutes ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

Interesting. That could open up some interesting falls. I think the sense was Bengals would go Bush, Hockenson, or QB.

 

They're a surprise QB team, but they still have Andy Dalton for 2 more years on an extremely good contract.  $16.2 million in 2019 and $17.7 million in 2020.  That's like half of what every other team has to pay a QB if their contract is up.   Jimmy Garappolo is getting I think $27.5 million a year.

 

I can see them content with Dalton on such a team friendly contract for 2019, and then decide in 2020 if they want to move on from him in a supposedly stacked QB class.

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I think these rumors about trading up to 3, coupled with the Dwayne Haskins love, is a smokescreen to induce the Giants to pick Haskins at 6 or trade to 3.

 

This rumor benefits the Jets significantly, but hurts the Skins (if we actually wanted to do it).

 

The fact that it’s so blatantly out there makes me think it’s a win/win for Jets/ Skins.

 

I think the Giants want Haskins. Trying to con them into trading up to 3 or taking him at 6. 

 

Or at the very least, trading up over us at 15 thinking he won’t last to 17.

 

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The site I mentioned earlier gives a listing of its metric, how well its performed in the past (including some of its major misses) but also predicts this year's class. 

 

It basically has their probabilities of success being.

Kyler Murray - 97%

Will Grier - 90

Ryan Finley - 78

Jordan Ta’amu - 72

Dwayne Haskins - 63

Brett Rypien - 39

Jake Browning - 38

Clayton Thorson - 29

Trace McSorley - 22

Daniel Jones - 17

Gardner Minshew - 4

Jarrett Stidham - 3

Kyle Shurmur - 1

Drew Lock < 1

Tyree Jackson <1

Nick Fitzgerald <1

 

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-nfl-is-drafting-quarterbacks-all-wrong/

 



Other surprises from the consensus top-four prospects are the rankings of Duke’s Daniel Jones and Missouri’s Drew Lock — both of whom completed fewer passes than we would expect, and both of whom were assigned a low probability of NFL success. Teams should probably be very wary of both players. Since 2011, college QB prospects with completion percentages under expected — a list that includes Brock Osweiler, Trevor Siemian, Mike Glennon, Matt McGloin and Jacoby Brissett — have all failed to post career yards per attempt above the league average of 7.1. Meanwhile West Virginia’s Will Grier — a player few experts have mocked to go in the first round — looks to be the second-best QB prospect of the class. With his excellent college production and nearly prototypical size at 6-foot-3 and 217 pounds, Grier is a player whose stock could rise with a good performance on and off the field at the combine.

 

Haskins has about a 6/10 chance of being successful according to this model but Lock and Jones look Horrible. Grier and Finley look a lot better though. 

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Finlay just doubled down that Lock is their clear 2nd favorite choice after Murray.  Then different people in the building like Jones as the #3 best Qb and some see it as Haskins being the third best QB.  

 

Sheehan has more or less said the same thing as for Lock being #2 with Jones and Haskins after that -- adding that his vibe is that Dan Snyder would be the one in the building that would be pushing Haskins. 

 

Hoffman thinks they only like Murray in the first round among the QBs

 

Keim said after Murray its Jones versus Haskins with perhaps more powerful people in the building preferring Haskins.

 

Should be interesting to see who is right 😀

Edited by Skinsinparadise
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The skins very well could trade up. But it won’t be up from #15, and it won’t be for a qb. I think we trade up to a high second or late 1st for Darnell Savage.  

 

We already threw picks for Swearinger, a 4th for haha,  and serious cash for Collins. It’s a position they covet, and appears a bigger priority to pair with the DL than other positions. 

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image.png.7de377c34cb2f238b4da329d91bc8171.png

 

Looks like this is starting to gain momentum. Could be a very interesting ride over the course of the next day or so. 

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7 minutes ago, Skin'emAlive said:

The skins very well could trade up. But it won’t be up from #15, and it won’t be for a qb. I think we trade up to a high second or late 1st for Darnell Savage.  

 

 

could be.  The Redskins went apparently to Savage to meet with him this week.  Last time I recall the Redskins going to meet the player at their venue as opposed to their own during the last week was Ryan Anderson.

 

For those interested here's McGinn's scouts take on him:

 

6. DARNELL SAVAGE, Maryland (5-10 ½, 197, 4.35, 2-3): Three-year starter. “I think he’s really good,” said one scout. “He (compensates for size) with speed and explosion. Earl Thomas was short, too. He’s a hitter.” Also covered in the slot. “He can play nick at the next level,” a second scout said. “Just not very big. He’s smart. He plays physical for his size but he’s not real strong. Gets run through. He still needs polish in the deep part of the field.” Finished with 182 tackles (nine for loss), eight picks and 13 PBUs. “I don’t see Lamarcus Joyner,” said a third scout. “Joyner was too tough for his own good. He just flew around. He was a whole different breed than this guy … people are going to say he can play slot, which he did there, but he’s not a good enough athlete to play slot. He’s a good little athlete but he’s going to have trouble because he’s so small. He’s not very good in run support. I’m not sure what to do with him.” From Newark, Del.

 

I know some here love Bryon Murphy so as their take on him:

 

1. BYRON MURPHY, Washington (5-10 ½, 189, 4.52, 1): Third-year sophomore bypassed two seasons of eligibility. “He’s Janoris Jenkins,” said one scout. “He’s got elite burst, twitch, explosiveness. I know he doesn’t have it from a speed standpoint. The guys he’ll be matched up against, he’ll be fine because he knows how to play and protect his cushion and get in and out of (breaks). He’s built for the game the way it’s played now with quarterbacks having to get the ball out of their hand fast. He can man mirror. He can play off. Reminds me of Cortland Finnegan. He was a 4.5 guy but the way he played you couldn’t tell because he stuck on guys.” Gained 14 pounds from his playing weight during the season to the combine. “Needs to get tougher,” said a second scout. “Real good athlete. He’s better than Kevin King (former Washington teammate). He’s not as explosive as (Jaire) Alexander.” After red-shirting in 2016, he missed half of the ’17 season because of a broken foot. “He’s super talented but his deal is he just hasn’t played that much,” a third scout said. Finished with 74 tackles (seven for loss), six interceptions and 20 passes broken up (PBUs). Scored 12 on the Wonderlic intelligence test. “Father’s been in prison and brother is in prison for armed robbery,” said a fourth scout. “Moved around a lot when he was young. You talk about a tough life.” From Scottsdale, Ariz.

 

 

 

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9 minutes ago, Skin'emAlive said:

The skins very well could trade up. But it won’t be up from #15, and it won’t be for a qb. I think we trade up to a high second or late 1st for Darnell Savage.  

 

We already threw picks for Swearinger, a 4th for haha,  and serious cash for Collins. It’s a position they covet, and appears a bigger priority to pair with the DL than other positions. 

 

 

Would be happy to get Savage for sure.  Maybe we trade down and get the best OG avail then (Who knows what will happen but) after seemingly 17 visits with Grier (and his stock rising), maybe we trade back into the bottom of first and grab him.  Get NE richer with more picks for their 32nd.

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Haskins's Rose Bowl film is damned good too.  So many advanced traits on display.  Top tier arm talent--can back foot lasers and put them on the money, can rip throw the seams against cover 3 and cover 2 shell with easy touch and velocity.  Ability to make accurate pre-snap reads and see the whole field.  Ability to look off primary reads to uncover them.  Beautiful pocket footwork, including the ability to climb the ladder and reset.  Ability to break the pocket and go off script for chunky positive plays.  Great pocket presence and field vision, plays with no fear and anticipates openings without having to see them, like when he's corralling a bad snap and can

 

This kid is a RS sophomore with only a few career starts and he's already a significantly better passer than anyone else in this class except Murray.  He is a bigger talent than Rosen too.  His weaknesses are normal for a young blue chip QB prospect, and they are absolutely things that he can work on to improve--developing touch on throws into the flats, developing touch on the deep ball, learning to read zone blitzes, learning when to throw it away.  He is so advanced for his age and class, that he's going to be able to make a **** ton of plays and competently guide a good offense early in his career.

 

I am 100% confident that the draftnik world is suffering from some really bad groupthink on Haskins and that they are missing on him like they missed on Watson.  He is a no-brainer top 5 talent and I'm as confident in my evaluation of his strengths and weaknesses as I was with Watson and Baker Mayfield.  He would transform our passing game.  Instead of having this fearful, seat of the pants quarterbacking that can't do anything against bad leverage situations we would have a workhorse passer who is efficient, accurate, and legitimately powerful.  Someone who puts confidence in our huddles and sidelines and leads our franchise with ability.  We could be one of the NFL's blue blood teams instead of the plucky try-hards who need everything to go right just to run a half-way competent offense.

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I think we trade down.

With the amount of our needs, it makes sense.

Trade up, and we lose valuable picks we need for numerous other needs we have. And what good is a Haskins, if the team around him is weak.

Trade down, we get extra picks to address those needs. Plus, there's a good chance we can still get a quality starter in Round 2. Round 1 QB's bust often, and of course, at a higher price.  Round 2 is the safe way to go this year.

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7 minutes ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

Haskins's Rose Bowl film is damned good too.  So many advanced traits on display.  Top tier arm talent--can back foot lasers and put them on the money, can rip throw the seams against cover 3 and cover 2 shell with easy touch and velocity.  Ability to make accurate pre-snap reads and see the whole field.  Ability to look off primary reads to uncover them.  Beautiful pocket footwork, including the ability to climb the ladder and reset.  Ability to break the pocket and go off script for chunky positive plays.  Great pocket presence and field vision, plays with no fear and anticipates openings without having to see them, like when he's corralling a bad snap and can

 

This kid is a RS sophomore with only a few career starts and he's already a significantly better passer than anyone else in this class except Murray.  He is a bigger talent than Rosen too.  His weaknesses are normal for a young blue chip QB prospect, and they are absolutely things that he can work on to improve--developing touch on throws into the flats, developing touch on the deep ball, learning to read zone blitzes, learning when to throw it away.  He is so advanced for his age and class, that he's going to be able to make a **** ton of plays and competently guide a good offense early in his career.

 

I am 100% confident that the draftnik world is suffering from some really bad groupthink on Haskins and that they are missing on him like they missed on Watson.  He is a no-brainer top 5 talent and I'm as confident in my evaluation of his strengths and weaknesses as I was with Watson and Baker Mayfield.  He would transform our passing game.  Instead of having this fearful, seat of the pants quarterbacking that can't do anything against bad leverage situations we would have a workhorse passer who is efficient, accurate, and legitimately powerful.  Someone who puts confidence in our huddles and sidelines and leads our franchise with ability.  We could be one of the NFL's blue blood teams instead of the plucky try-hards who need everything to go right just to run a half-way competent offense.

 

His accuracy is pretty damn phenomenal if I must say so, he even has accuracy on the deep ball which is telling. I think scouts are outthinking themselves when it comes to him. I could live with trading up a couple of spots to get him, but going into the top 5 is going to cost a fortune and we don't really have the talent to afford giving up those picks. 

6 minutes ago, Malapropismic Depository said:

I think we trade down.

With the amount of our needs, it makes sense.

Trade up, and we lose valuable picks we need for numerous other needs we have. And what good is a Haskins, if the team around him is weak.

Trade down, we get extra picks to address those needs. Plus, there's a good chance we can still get a quality starter in Round 2. Round 1 QB's bust often, and of course, at a higher price.  Round 2 is the safe way to go this year.

 

Well, when have we ever done that on a consistent basis? 😋

Edited by Burgundy Yoda
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21 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

could be.  The Redskins went apparently to Savage to meet with him this week.  Last time I recall the Redskins going to meet the player at their venue as opposed to their own during the last week was Ryan Anderson.

 

Yep and at the time Anderson became an obvious selection in the second. Heck maybe if Allen hadn't fallen to us, we'd have traded back and taken Anderson slightly earlier. 

 

Anyway, Savage looks like he could be 'that' target this year. Trade back for an extra second rounder at least, OL, pick Savage, WR, then QB in their somewhere. Maybe QB, Savage, WR/OL as we drift into the third. Few nice options, including Rosen,  assuming we don't shoot our wad and trade up from #15

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I think I can live with anything but Daniel Jones with pick 15.  Trade the world and go after Murray, sit tight and draft Haskins or Lock, draft anybody else at 15, trade back and get some additional picks.  If the Redskins draft Jones at 15, or heaven forbid jump up to get him, I am turning in my Redskin fan card.  I can't take anymore.

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2 minutes ago, Burgundy Yoda said:

His accuracy is pretty damn phenomenal if I must say so, he even has accuracy on the deep ball which is telling. I think scouts are outthinking themselves when it comes to him. I could live with trading up a couple of spots to get him, but going into the top 5 is going to cost a fortune and we don't really have the talent to afford giving up those picks.  

 

I don't really have a good sense of what it will cost.  If there is competition for Haskins, then yeah, it'll probably cost a fortune.  If that's the case, I don't see how we can win a bidding war.  But if there isn't competition for him, then someone in the top ten might not really have many trade down offers.  In which case, it might not be as cost prohibitive as we fear.

 

It sounds a little like we're laying the groundwork for a trade right now, which is smart.  My hope is that we can use players to match value for the trade.  Pretty much the only two guys on the roster I'd hesitate to include in a trade are Allen and Payne.  The Jets probably wouldn't target them, given their roster situation.  I'd absolutely deal Trent to them in order to move up.

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Something to consider with QB's, age when the Season starts (according to 3sigma):

 

Ryan Finley - 24.7 years old

Will Grier - 24.4

Jarrett Stidham - 23.1

Brett Rypien - 23.1

Drew Lock - 22.8

Daniel Jones - 22.3

Dwayne Haskins - 22.3

Kyler Murray - 22.1

 

Comparing that list, to the age of last year's draft class when the 2018 season began:

 

Baker Mayfield - 23.4

Josh Allen - 22.3

Lamar Jackson - 21.6

Josh Rosen - 21.6

Sam Darnold - 21.2

 

2019 draft class is considered to likely be worse than 2018, while also being a bit older.  Now I have no idea if draft age even matters for QB prospects.  It's not like they have short careers.

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15 minutes ago, Skin'emAlive said:

Oh I would freak if we convinced Bill to trade for #15. That would be an incredible haul. 

 

Sorry, who do you mean by "Bill" ?

Is Bill the name of another GM we might trade with ?

Or you talking about Buffalo Bills ?

Maybe it's obvious, and I'm having a brain fart.

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3 minutes ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

I don't really have a good sense of what it will cost.  If there is competition for Haskins, then yeah, it'll probably cost a fortune.  If that's the case, I don't see how we can win a bidding war.  But if there isn't competition for him, then someone in the top ten might not really have many trade down offers.  In which case, it might not be as cost prohibitive as we fear.

 

It sounds a little like we're laying the groundwork for a trade right now, which is smart.  My hope is that we can use players to match value for the trade.  Pretty much the only two guys on the roster I'd hesitate to include in a trade are Allen and Payne.  The Jets probably wouldn't target them, given their roster situation.  I'd absolutely deal Trent to them in order to move up.

 

I don't have an idea either honestly, everyone and their mother knew we loved RGlll and look how the Rams took advantage of that situation. That trade gave me some serious PTSD about trading up for QBs. I think maybe if the Giants pass on him at 6, it's time to start sending out some serious feelers. Yes, if we can use players in the trade that is the best case scenario imo. Those trades seem a bit more rare on draft day though (probably only because it's on draft day).

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