2019 Comprehensive Draft Thread

[Skinsinparadise]

59 minutes ago, Alcoholic Zebra said:

 

Can you elaborate on what he said about Stidham?  I mean, Stidham is not a good QB prospect.

 

He more or less if you flipped his two seasons, his junior and senior people would look at him differently.  And that there is context to what happened his senior year.  NFL teams get that and he's going higher than people expect.  Has a strong arm and can make all the throws. 

 

[Est.1974]

3 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

He more or less if you flipped his two seasons, his junior and senior people would look at him differently.  And that there is context to what happened his senior year.  NFL teams get that and he's going higher than people expect.  Has a strong arm and can make all the throws. 

 

 

I've had us taking Stidham if we wait until the third round or later for a QB. Unless we trade up in the draft for Haskins or Lock, Stidham in the mid rounds is my guess.

[The Consigliere]

4 hours ago, bowhunter said:

I remember reading an article about A.J. Brown earlier in the offseason. I kind of liked the guy after that. Seems to be a very hard worker and plays tougher than you would think. In my mind, I pictured a Garcon style guy who is there when you need him come crunch time. A "football player" to use Scotty McGems terminology.  What are his red flags??

I really need to write out the full name. I'm talking about Marquise Brown, not A.J. Brown. I have A.J. Brown as probably the #1 WR prospect in the draft. It isn't because I see Randy Moss upside with him, I don't, it's because he has pretty much zero distinct flaws, and has a super high floor and one of the highest ceilings amongst the WR's in the draft, he combines upside with minimal risk, ideal for a team like ours that simply can't draft WR's worth a damn to save it's life (I do recall that rumors were, we were targeting Michael Thomas three years ago, so perhaps we almost hit on WR back then, or that was just nonsense, not sure). 

[Skinsinparadise]

Jets reporter.  Bruce stay strong.  Don't trade up to #3  😀  I'd presume to trade up that far it has to include a 2020 first rounder. 

 

 

2 hours ago, UK SKINS FAN '74 said:

 

I've had us taking Stidham if we wait until the third round or later for a QB. Unless we trade up in the draft for Haskins or Lock, Stidham in the mid rounds is my guess.

 

I am not a Stidham guy but still I'd actually rather take Stidham in the third round as opposed to Haskins in the first.  I don't think the two are that different of a player.  Both strong arm QBs with questionable skills as to how they perform with pressure-pass rush.  Both have strong arms and IMO are projections.  So I'd rather spend less draft capital on a player like that.  I know am going against the grain on Haskins but i do have some company on it. 

 

Right now for me its Lock if they have to take a QB in the first.   if its a 2nd rounder: Rosen.  If they drop further Finley.  I am perfectly happy with no QB but I expect them to pull the trigger on someone. 

 

 

 

[nonniey]

18 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Not sure what this means, Josh Allen a bust?  Even if so, I said he more or less said Lock is better.  You don't hear a teacher go apples to apples with his own students like that typically. 

No from what was posted he said had reservations about Allens success (he was wrong about those reservations????). 

[Est.1974]

^^ that potential jump to #3 is frightening 

 

Hopefully it's BS to make the Giants blow some draft capital.

[Skinsinparadise]

1 minute ago, UK SKINS FAN '74 said:

^^ that potential jump to #3 is frightening 

 

Hopefully it's BS to make the Giants blow some draft capital.

 

Yeah if this isn't real then either someone from the Redskins is purposely leaking it for whatever reason or the Jets are leaking it to find a trade partner.    Because this idea that the Redskins is the team most opt to trade up is all over the place and going on for a long time.  The beat guys for the team don't seem as convinced but aren't ruling it out.  

[Est.1974]

Just now, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Yeah if this isn't real then either someone in the Redskins is purposely leaking it for whatever reason or the Jets are leaking it to find a trade partner.   

 

I think IF we were in the market to do that move to #3 we'd have to ship out a key player as part of the deal. Can't see the logic, unless the owner is in love with Haskins of course....

[Skinsinparadise]

2 minutes ago, nonniey said:

No from what was posted he said had reservations about Allens success (he was wrong about those reservations????). 

 

Forgot how he said it but it didn't come off as a slam on Allen -- thinking about it some more he gave the vibe that more people have questions about Lock now than they did about Allen last year.  But he's more sure of Lock now than he was last year of Allen.

 

Palmer came off dead sure Lock will be a good QB.  

[HardcoreZorn]

4 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Yeah if this isn't real then either someone from the Redskins is purposely leaking it for whatever reason or the Jets are leaking it to find a trade partner.    Because this idea that the Redskins is the team most opt to trade up is all over the place and going on for a long time.  The beat guys for the team don't seem as convinced but aren't ruling it out.  

I think it would be for Murray. Said it since he declared and went all in on football, Dan was probably salivating.

[The Consigliere]

4 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I like looking at the metrics and production as much as anyone (heck I subscribe to PFF, I get Warren Sharp's stuff every year, etc) but some fall for me outside of those variables when I look at context and watch them play.  

 

i listed a whole bunch of receivers I like before Ridley and McLaurin.  So I am not in love with either one.  As for Ridley, Georgia though didn't throw to him much.  They were more of a pound it on the ground type of team.  His 40 was pedestrian but his 10 yard at 1.57 was pretty good -- about the same 10 time as AJ Brown.  He made some really good acrobatic catches in the games I watched.  There are some off the field red flags about him though that make me pause. 

 

As for McLaurin, he would fit your like of combine studs.   4.35 40.  1.54 10.   Not bad for a 6 "1, 208 pound receiver with a better broad jump than AJ Brown and he benched about the same as him, too.  But as for production 35 catches for 700 yards isn't hot.  I wouldn't call it though "zero" either.   From the games I watched, mostly a deep threat but the ball wasn't thrown to him a lot.    Ironically I was just listening to a PFF guy who charted Dwayne Haskins who talked about how Haskins doesn't love going deep and almost always checks down when he's blitzed.  That would help a dude like Parris Campbell not so much McLaurin. 

 

https://www.sbnation.com/2019/3/5/18247493/terry-mclaurin-scouting-report

Advanced stats say Ohio State’s Terry McLaurin is one of the best receivers in the 2019 NFL Draft.

Among FBS receivers in this class, McLaurin was first in 2018 in Marginal Efficiency, the advanced stat by SB Nation’s Bill Connelly that measures how successful a throw to a receiver is based on the down and distance. (For instance, a 10-yard completion on third-and-8 is more efficient than a 12-year completion on third-and-20.) He was seventh in the class in Marginal Explosiveness, which similarly measures how successful his successful targets are. Nobody fared better across both departments.

Traditional numbers like McLaurin a lot, too.

He caught 71 percent of his targets, ninth-best in the class. He averaged 14.3 yards per target, No. 1 in the class. He caught 11 touchdowns, tied for sixth-most. It helped to play in an elite Ohio State offense quarterbacked by Dwayne Haskins, but there’s no statistical indicator that McLaurin’s anything other than a star.

 

Looks like we got some fun disagreements on this thread as for 15.

 

I think the closest to consensus would be:

 

Brian Burns

TJ Hockenson (if he falls which is unlikely)

 

Otherwise unless am forgetting a prospect or two, I think we got some disagreements here. 😀

W/WR, my big metrics I focus on are Dominator (or Market Share) and Breakout Age, if those two factors aren't in play, generally I look no further. These two factors are more directly connected to successful NFL WR's than things like Burst Score, or Agility or even to some extent 40 time (although there are thresholds, if you pull an Elijah Holyfield at WR, you're screwed, but few are that god awful, and even if you are, there are some all time studs that didn't hit blistering times like Jerry Rice, Anquan Boldin and Keenan Allen (although Allen's 40 was heavily impacted by injury recovery time, he never should've run at the combine in the first place) that made it anyway, they're just outliers. 

 

Riley Ridley's Dominator is 28th percentile and his breakout age is 14th percentile. When I looked through the top 40-45 WR's in the league last week I don't recall a single one with a breakout age that low (though perhaps there was, in the form of a guy who didn't breakout period, I just can't remember, I just know w/certainty that there were only 3 WR's with breakout ages below that 40th-50th percentile cohort.  

 

McLaurin is even worse, dominator sits at 17th percentile and he never broke out period. W/guys like that, the hit rate is in the 1 percentile area. In other words it's not even worth considering for an undrafted free agent, let alone day 2 or day 3. 

 

Generally speaking, WR's are all about breakout age, and dominator, w/some thresholds being met in terms of size and athleticism, but within a rather broad spectrum of acceptability (for instance, the league appears to be moving away again from an obsession with size/speed freak outside options, and opening itself up to smaller, faster players, and the relatively new and evolving Big Slot guy which is ever growing in importance).

 

TE's are kind of similar to WR (when it comes to pass catching options, I'm not speaking to pure in line blockers) w/more importance on the combine #'s than WR.

 

RB's interestingly are very very very much about the combine and production markers. You look at the 40 first, you look at the market share production #'s next, you look at the 3 cone, especially if he has pass catching skills, then burst score. Every once in a while a guy breaks through like Kareem Hunt, but generally, if a RB is going to be successful, he has to time better than 4.65 (it seems to be a threshold, slower than that, and the hit rate drops to around 1%), generally the 40 is as predictive of anything other than draft slotting when digging for success rates. 

 

 

[Skinsinparadise]

Just now, HardcoreZorn said:

I think it would be for Murray. Said it since he declared and went all in on football, Dan was probably salivating.

 

Maybe.  He would be the sexy name that will sell tickets.   Seems unlikely though that he drops.  I still think the Cards take him but you never know.  I don't want to trade up period.  But I could live with it more if it's Murray as opposed to Haskins because I do think Murray will be a stud.  The question about Murray though is can he stay healthy and stick to football. 

[The Consigliere]

3 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I like looking at the metrics and production as much as anyone (heck I subscribe to PFF, I get Warren Sharp's stuff every year, etc) but some fall for me outside of those variables when I look at context and watch them play.....  

 

Love, love, love Warren Sharp, but my exposure is exclusively with his podcast, and interviews he gives on other podcasts. He's fantastic. Love that guy. I never paid for his stuff because if I remember, it's insanely expensive to get access to his material (like fantasylabs which also have some absolutely brilliant analytics guys running the show). Does he put out a cheaper book during the summer? I don't buy books anymore, but I might make an exception for Sharp (for instance, he made an absolute killing last year on the Colts O/U to name one example of his insights, he was all over that, believing people were severely undervaluing the Colts after doing a deep dive into their performance game to game, play to play).  

[Conn]

I know people want edge, OL, TE, WR, hell even QB...I want all that as well and go back and forth on my priority. But we really need a stud FS. Having this potentially great young DL is going to get very frustrating if teams can just stretch the field on us anyways, at will. And they will. We don't want to waste this DL talent, edge and FS are the two spots that can act as serious force multipliers there. 

[Conn]

I don't want a QB in the 3rd/4th or later unless it's someone toolsy like Tyree Jackson. We have low ceiling game manager types already, just punt entirely if you don't love someone in the 1st imo. 

[Conn]

33 minutes ago, HardcoreZorn said:

I think it would be for Murray. Said it since he declared and went all in on football, Dan was probably salivating.

I seriously doubt the first QB doesn't come off the board until #3 though. That would be surprising. 

[The Consigliere]

3 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I've probably put the most pro Marquise Brown propaganda on this thread starting from the fall.  So you won't get me arguing against him.  😀 The only reason why I wouldn't take him at 15 is twofold.

 

A.  I think there is a shot a better prospect than him lands at 15.  I think for example a pass rusher is a more premium position than WR. 

B.  I think they can get away with trading down and still getting him.  Granted this is just a guess but it seems like the team salivating for him is the Eagles.  And if we trade down before that pick we likely still get him.  And if we don't you still can get a good prospect IMO who likely would be in that range.  So I'd risk it. 

 

But yeah this idea that Marquise would be some unicorn type of success I don't buy at least not in today's NFL.  Speed.  Mismatches in space.  Guys like Desean, Tyreek, TJ, Tarik are game breakers.  They are the types of playmakers that keep coordinators up late at night trying to figure out how to stop them.  They are the type of players who according to Deangelo Hall that cornerbacks are scared to death of and they overcompensate to stop which screws up what they typically want to do coverage wise.

 

 

 

 

 

 

B. Granted I don't want him period, but I have to disagree here. He's a consensus 1st rounder. He's being invited to the green room. Basically that means that the NFL has been informed that it's quite likely he's picked off the board at some point between 1 and 32. Can we trade down and still get him? Maybe. But he could also go before our pick, or soon after. If you want him, you probably can't trade down very far. I do not want him, so I wouldn't worry about any of this. Despite that though, he's a risk to go off the board at any time. I get the sense that he may not be #1 on every team's board, but he is either 1 or 2 on virtually every teams board. As such, he's going to go either before us, to us, or after us. Trade down at your own risk. 

 

Last point: He's got the lisfranc, and he'd basically be the smallest successful WR ever in the modern history of the NFL. If you go back far enough, you probably find other little guys like Anthony Carter, but that's going back 3 decades and most analytics groups are looking essentially at the NFL over the past 15-25 or so years, basically depending upon the group, they're usually focused on the post-Plan B era, or the Post-rules changing Indy whining to the league about the Patriots era (where they tightened the heck out of rules governing what can be done to WR's and QB's etc). 

 

There are guys that I'm scared bleepless will bust, and wouldn't take period, D.K. Metcalf scares me that way (he could be a megastar, but he also could lack the study habits to learn how to run a varied route tree and develop his game), guys like Hakeem Butler (Didn't do a damn thing until the end of his career at Iowa State, that's a red flag that concerns me as much as Brown's size. Whatever one may say about Brown, he produced. The second he arrived in Oklahoma he was straight up murdering secondaries left and right. I don't know what his market share #'s were at college of the canyons, and because of the defenses, said stats are tossable, but after arriving at College of the Canyons looking like a sixth grader, he posted a line good enough to place him 13th amongst all JUCO transfer prospects in the '17 transfer class (50-700something-10 TD's, I posted it earlier today). 

 

Hakeem Butler had no NFL caliber competition at Iowa State, and he played in the Big-12, which produced gobs of crazy pass catching, and throwing stats, and he still didn't do squat until his final year. That's like 100 red flags. 

 

I would not be surprised if Brown is hugely productive when he's on the field, I'm just sincerely worried about how often he'll be on the field, plus he comes in with an injury red flag. So I'd pass unless he was there in the mid to late 2nd (and he won't be). Again, have no problem envisioning a John Brown like career for him, minus the Sickle Cell trait issues (am assuming he doesn't have that issue), but the lisfranc and the size concerns have me 1000% against it. 

[Going Commando]

Was not impressed with what I saw of Jaylon Ferguson.  Big, versatile, pretty good playing the run.  But not overly physical despite his size, and not very explosive.  Reminded me of Preston Smith a little, but he doesn't look as fast to me.  He runs really high, I don't think he bends very well.  He played standing up, but he doesn't have hip fluidity--a lot of gathering going on when he's not attacking downhill through his gap.  I don't see him as a natural fit at OLB for 3-4 teams.

 

I think he's a mid round guy.  Third or early fourth is where I would predict him to go.

8 minutes ago, ConnSKINS26 said:

I seriously doubt the first QB doesn't come off the board until #3 though. That would be surprising. 

 

Agreed.  My gut prediction the past few months has been that Murray will go #1, Allen will go #2, and Haskins goes #3.

[The Consigliere]

4 hours ago, Anselmheifer said:

 

If Marquise Brown is a Desean Jackson/Tyreek Hill, is he really worth less than a 15? I still remember passing on JJ Watt and winding up with Kerrigan. I love Kerrigan, but a lot of times these trde downs are not worth it if there is a potential pro-bowler available at your pic. I think Brown is one of a few players likely to be there and worth that pick. 

The problem with the comp is that it's not a reasonable comp. Jackson was killing defenses as a fresh out of high school 18 year old kid catching balls thrown by a total dog bleep QB in 2005. Brown's production is age 20/21. Hill actually has the worst track record of the three, never breaking out, despite playing against garbage defenses. One gets the sense he just wasn't used properly in college (plus he was a complete and utter scumbag so maybe he was suspended a ton, he was actually guilty of much worse transgressions in college than Hunt has been as a pro). 

 

But yeah, if you got DeSean Jackson production by drafting Brown, and say an injury history no worse than Jacksons? Absolutely that's worth the top 15 pick. And Tyreek Hill? That woudl be worth a top 5 pick (especially if he has none of the character flags). 

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

Interesting stat take on QB prospects.

 

https://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2019/4/15/18304541/nfl-quarterbacks-draft-2019-projection-stats-kyler-murray-dwayne-haskins

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

8 minutes ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

Was not impressed with what I saw of Jaylon Ferguson.  Big, versatile, pretty good playing the run.  But not overly physical despite his size, and not very explosive.  Reminded me of Preston Smith a little, but he doesn't look as fast to me.  He runs really high, I don't think he bends very well.  He played standing up, but he doesn't have hip fluidity--a lot of gathering going on when he's not attacking downhill through his gap.  I don't see him as a natural fit at OLB for 3-4 teams.

 

I think he's a mid round guy.  Third or early fourth is where I would predict him to go.

 

Going to copy/paste his section on Jaylon Ferguson.  It's not pretty.

https://thedraftnetwork.com/articles/where-i-differ-from-the-consensus

 

Quote

Jaylon Ferguson

Consensus: #70 overall, #8 EDGE

Kelly's Big Board: Unranked (outside top 200), #23 EDGE

Ferguson is the all-time NCAA leader in career sacks, which should lead you to believe that he has excellent film. When scouting him, I thought he lacked bend around the edge and won almost strictly with power. I didn't see the same success using that method against more quality and pro-ready offensive tackles at the Senior Bowl, which raised questions with how he'll win at the next level.

Unfortunately for Ferguson, that's not even where his issues ended. At his pro day, he clocked a 8.08s three-cone drill and fell numerous times attempting to complete the exercise. That poor time suggests he lacks the agility to corner the edge track and get to the quarterback. I have a difficult time projecting where Ferguson will find success as a pass rusher, and I was never sold on his range as a run defender to begin with.

 

That's a really bad sign.  He's stiff on film, his measurables are atrocious.  That's a UDFA quality pro-day.  You can't do anything with him, he's the opposite of versatile.  Once he's on the field, every OL in front of him knows he's doing one thing and that's it.

[Going Commando]

I wouldn't take a slot specialist like AJ Brown or a tiny flanker/slot guy like Marquise Brown over bonafide X receivers like Metcalf, Butler, or Harry.  It is so much harder to find a legit X than the other positions.  In a year with three of them in the first to early second round range, you can't justify taking lesser guys at the more replaceable positions.

 

I'm also not against trading up for Haskins.  We need a quarterback.  We can't do anything until we have one, and Haskins is as a legit prospect who might only be obtainable because a bunch of other teams just drafted QBs and the other bad teams seem to be acting really stupid about the position this offseason.  Similar deal to 2017 in that way.  When a top of the draft QB prospect falls, you freaking strike while the iron is hot.  You don't wait until next year.

4 minutes ago, Alcoholic Zebra said:

 

Going to copy/paste his section on Jaylon Ferguson.  It's not pretty. 

https://thedraftnetwork.com/articles/where-i-differ-from-the-consensus

 

 

That's a really bad sign.  He's stiff on film, his measurables are atrocious.  That's a UDFA quality pro-day.  You can't do anything with him, he's the opposite of versatile.  Once he's on the field, every OL in front of him knows he's doing one thing and that's it.

 

Good Lord, that is not encouraging.  Does it say what his 40 time was?

 

He's got excellent size for an End, but when you're not explosive and you can't bend and you're not super powerful/physical, you don't have much of a foundation to win with.  I think he added a bunch of garbage weight to bulk up this past season, and it's made it so he can't run any more.

[The Consigliere]

2 hours ago, volsmet said:

 

Well if this Frank Clark was in this draft he’d go top 10, so KC used its first & a 2020 2nd to move up & get a 25 year old who is proven ... he’s only a bit over a year older than Winovich. 

Probably the single funniest part of the trade is that Clark did far worse supposedly, in a domestic violence incident that got him booted off Michigan in his draft year, then what Kareem Hunt did. However there were three key differences for the Chiefs.

#1: Hunt was caught on video doing it. This also seems to be the only thing that gets the NFL to act on anything.

#2: Clark plays a far more vital position that is signficantly more difficult to address.

 

So for the billionth time, when teams say they care about character it was, is, and will always be total <censored>. 

 

Btw, I've come to really not be concerned w/it anymore. Once Kirby Puckett got outed as a flat out monster, and Eugene Robinson fumbled away his man of the year award while getting arrested the night before the super bowl he was set to start in it really put the lie to the character talk for once and for all. We don't know these guys, we never will. You never have any clear idea who is a bad actor and who is not, arrests or not. The only thing I know for sure is that the league and your favorite team are ALWAYS lying when they talk about character. They only care about it when it effects them w/bad publicity AND w/their bottom line win total. otherwise they couldn't give less of a <censored>.

[The Consigliere]

1 hour ago, wilco_holland said:

I think the Bama RB could be a player people want to trade up for to our spot. 

 

But this year is wild. The lack of good intel is so low. Even beat writers have no clue who might be in play for teams after 10. 

 

Don't get it. The pro day should've murdered his stock for once and for all. Sanders is just a much, much, much better prospect (granted the fumbling will always scare off teams). 

[wilco_holland]

2 minutes ago, The Consigliere said:

 

Don't get it. The pro day should've murdered his stock for once and for all. Sanders is just a much, much, much better prospect (granted the fumbling will always scare off teams). 

 

Not my person opinion this time. I just react to the news that is leaking out...that he is gaining steam. I don't see anything special to him. 3th or 5th round rb won't be much worse.