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2019 Comprehensive Draft Thread


Going Commando

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About the QBs

 

I think Lock fits Jay his profile the best. His mental and physical attributes are what Jay likes and he would fit the system well. 

 

I think Haskins has a lot of "lovers" in the FO. Local guy, same HS as Dan his son, Doug Williams might see him as a Doug 2.0, well spoken, put up big numbers. I just don't think he is a great match with Jay. The Gruden O works the best when the running game works and he can just overload you with play action and move the pocket to get half field looks. I just don't see Haskins running that. So you then force a QB on your HC and the 2020 new HC needs to love him... (world upside down)

 

I get the feeling Josh Rosen won't be traded on draft day 1. I think all the teams want to let the first round complete. See if a QB falls who they like. If they miss out on a QB (and don't like the early second round option) they will make an offer. But I believe teams will lowball Arizona. Next year's class is pretty loaded and there are not a lot of teams (after the first) that have a problem if they don't get a QB. 

 

"Will Grier, is on fire! Your D# is terrified. Will Grier is on fire. Nananana." That would he fun. Back to serious. This kid is wild and to me the song would say a lot. He reminds me of the bad Kirk days. He is also an extreme hot and cold QB. When he is on fire, yes wauw. Good stuff happens. When he is cold. He can just throw away the game. I think Jay could work with him but I don't believe he can become top 10 tire QB. He will always be a hot and cold streaky QB. Does guys I just hate. 

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If they take Haskins, I got some concerns and I don't love him but I'd take him over Daniel Jones.  But if they take him, it better not be primarily driven by any narrative like Peter King's column here.  It's cool that Haskins is from Maryland and went to school with Dan's son -- but I can care less as for that being a variable in actually drafting him.   Also ditto if it's Doug overriding Jay on him or any QB. 

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2019/04/22/nfl-mock-draft-fmia-peter-king/?cid=fmiatw

 

15. Washington: Dwayne Haskins, QB, Ohio State 

Dan Snyder gets to pick the quarterback of the future from his backyard in Maryland. Haskins’ family moved to Maryland from New Jersey at the start of his high school years, and Snyder’s son and Haskins both went to high school at the Bullis School in Potomac, Md. Picking Haskins could give Snyder the local-guy-makes-good story the franchise obviously would love. I found this piece of footage from for NFL quarterback Dan Orlovsky quite helpful and revealing about Haskins.

 

Carolina: Montez Sweat, edge rusher, Mississippi State 

“Don’t put him in the first round,” one smart guy told me Sunday afternoon. “So many teams are afraid of him.” Some teams are worried about a heart condition discovered in Sweat after the season, and NFL Network reported Sweat has been taken off some teams’ draft boards. One GM told me Saturday: “We think it’s an issue, but we’ve been told if we keep a close eye on it, he can play. This is the kind of thing that different teams will have different opinions on.” Another GM told me he thought Sweat’s upside, if healthy, is better than Nick Bosa’s. With the retirement of Julius Peppers, Sweat would be a perfect addition to an edge-rush-needy team—if GM Marty Hurney can get past the worry over Sweat’s ticker.

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4 minutes ago, wilco_holland said:

Good rumour for Arizona to spread. Say that they won't draft Murray to see if any team is going to offer a boat load of picks. I rather have boat load of picks and Rosen. Then Murray and maybe an extra 2nd or 3th when you trade Rosen. 

 

That rumor has been hot for days.  Peter King today said he still thinks they still take Murray.  On NFL Network they said they are taking feelers for what teams would give up in a trade.  I guess on their end it doesn't hurt to have an open mind.  I posted somewhere if I recall on Friday that Tony Pauline said that Kingsbury still wants Murray but the owner isn't wild about the idea of throwing Rosen's signing bonus in effect in the garbage and starting over at QB.  Who knows. I suspect they still take Murray.

 

But if they don't take Murray both Finlay and Keim said don't rule out the Redskins interest -- probably not to go to #1 but to #3 if he falls there. 

 

 

 

 

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8 hours ago, Anselmheifer said:

Bush, on the other hand, was always a first rounder. He has no significant injury history. He was able to participate in athletic testing, and it verified what the tape showed, that he's a top 5 athlete at the position in the last 10-15 years. I know you don't like his instincts. I know you think White is better. So do I. But, Bush has a chance to fall into our range and I think that on our team, not only does he add much needed speed, but he otherwise is a great fit. He'd be playing behind Allen and Payne and Ioannidis and Kerrigan and Settle. Both Payne and Allen should be commanding double teams, so our LB's should be free to pursue sideline to sideline and shouldn't be having to deal with a ton of second level blockers. That should mitigate his size issues to a large degree. Bush is also, by reports, a great team leader and a very high character player. He would give us a positive influence for Foster, but more importantly, insurance in case Foster can't keep his crazy inside the can. I find it impossible to watch the gif of Bush running down Saquan Barkley without thinking how specifically useful that skill set would be for us. I really feel that, as much as, or more than any other team, that Bush would be a perfect fit here. 

 

I think he was being ranked in the second round until the combine.  I'll grant you that he makes two or three wow plays a game, usually something like meeting a player in the flat coming all of the way from the hash and delivering a big blow.  I think these kinds of plays + his combine performance have people overvaluing him.  Very few stack linebackers have been taken in the first half of the first round over the last 10 years.  Here's the list:

 

2018: Roquan and Edmunds

2014: Anthony Barr and Ryan Shazier

2012: Kuechly

2010: Ro McClain

2009: Aaron Curry

2008: Keith Rivers & Jerrod Mayo

 

When you look at that list, it's all either king sized linebackers or alpha players who had massive collegiate production (or both).  The smallest players on the list are Roquan and Shazier.  Devin White almost clocks in at their size.  Bush is two inches shorter than Roquan and about three shorter than Shazier.  White's collegiate production meets the norms established by the 6'1 linebackers from that list.  Shazier = 258 tackles in his two years as a starter, Roquan = 232, Mayo = 223, White = 256.

 

Bush's (181) does not.

 

What's being lost in the enthusiasm for the splashy, rangy plays that Bush makes is the fact that he does not generate the routine diet of wins on his reps that those other players did.  He is a much more passive player than them, and he's far less instinctive.  Being small and lacking instincts is a bad combination for a stack linebacker.  It puts him between positions.  If you put him at WILL or MIKE, he's going to be slow to process and he won't make enough plays.  If you simplify things for him and put him at SAM, he's going to get washed out of his fits by climbing linemen.

 

I am really confident that if he goes to early in the first round, that he won't be able to justify his draft status and will be a bad value pick.  Only the most spectacular stack linebacker prospects go early in the first round over the past decade, and he is not on their level.  I think Daniel Jones has a better shot at justifying himself as a top 16 pick than Bush does, that's how confident I am that Bush is not a top 16 value.  I don't even think he's a first round value, and that picking him top 16 would be a reach of at least a full round.  That is something I would never, ever do for a stack linebacker, no matter how badly I needed one, or how close I thought my defense was to being great.

 

But beyond a consideration of draft value, I think he's also a poor fit for us in particular.  I don't think he has a natural position in a 3-4 defense against 12+ personnel.  And then I think he's probably a WILL or box safety against 10 and 11.  We already have better players than him at WILL and box safety.  I just don't think he's going to be very good as an A and B gap defender because he's too reactive, small, and passive.  His game lacks the dimension of aggressive downhill playmaking that makes for a great MIKE.  I actually think your A and B gaps are going to be soft with him at MIKE.  But I also don't think he's instinctive enough to star at a weakside chase and hit role.  That's probably where he will end up because of his size.  But the smaller guys who end up being the best at this position are usually super instinctive, and they don't tend to be drafted as high.  Deion Jones, Sean Lee, and Lavonte David went in the second round.  Telvin Smith went in the fifth.  Navorro Bowman was a third rounder.  It's a low draft value position where you can bargain hunt outside of the first round.

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Refound the tweet I said I read awhile back about Lock.  If I recall it was @mistertim who asked me if I can find it?   

 

Like I said back then, it's not that I needed to see the tweet for it to resonate with me.  In the games I watched Drew Lock's and Daniel Jones' supporting cast was blatantly poor. 

 

The fact that Lock had a decent completion percentage, 63%, and a decent YPA with all those drops (albeit don't know how they were spread out over that time) IMO makes his season more impressive.  Lock to me has risk so I agree with the boom-bust label but IMO his "boom" potential is big.  Daniel Jones IMO's ceiling is something like the 20-25th ranked QB in the league -- master of the quick-short game.  

 

 

 

 

 

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Sweat falling due to potential character concerns (failed drug tests) and medical concerns (heart) might cause Burns not to make it to us.  King has Burns to Cinci.  

 

If Josh Allen slips to 6, NYG are taking him.  The Jets are desperate to get out of 3.  I don't see a dance partner except Buffalo (who can take Q. Williams or Oliver).  Would NYJ trade down to a division rival to pick up a lost 2nd round pick?

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8 hours ago, Poindexter said:

I wouldn't touch Winovich or any other prospect that is 24+ years old....that includes Ryan Finley and Will Grier.  All those guys should be playing at a higher level but they are middling as middle of the pack players and at QB and DE their talents should be off the charts at their age.

 

Josh Norman and especially Terrence Newman are two guys who come to mind as older guys who didn't disappoint. 

 

But like you said, Brian Burns is that speed rusher who still has some power and he will turn 21 tomorrow.  He would be my likely pick at #15 if he's available.

 

I didn't realize how old he was.  I was just looking at his cut ups.

 

He's a try-hard who gets pressure by selling out and he's either going to A - be fortunate to get drafted by a team that uses him in a very limited force role, B - be a point of failure in a soft rush defense, or C - ride the bench and only come in for nickle and dime personnel groups.  If he's not a smarter player by age 24, then he's never going to be a smart player.  I'd pass on him.

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11 minutes ago, mhd24 said:

Sweat falling due to potential character concerns (failed drug tests) and medical concerns (heart) might cause Burns not to make it to us.  King has Burns to Cinci.  

 

If Josh Allen slips to 6, NYG are taking him.  The Jets are desperate to get out of 3.  I don't see a dance partner except Buffalo (who can take Q. Williams or Oliver).  Would NYJ trade down to a division rival to pick up a lost 2nd round pick?

 

Agree that Sweat dropping would be bad news as for Burns being there at 15.

 

I've been reading the rumor stuff today including an article on ESPN insider.  If that stuff can be believed the impression I get:

 

No way Hockenson drops to 15.  That's been brewing though for some time

Oliver is hot, no way he drops to 15, might go top 5

Giants don't take a QB at 6

Denver skips Qb too

Dolphins are a wild card as to QB

Bengals do take a QB

Redskins might take a QB.  it's either Lock, Jones or Haskins depending on the source. Haskins being the hottest link 

Haskins could fall past top 10 but is unlikely to get past Cincy

Lock and Jones are high variable where they can get anywhere from 6 to the bottom of the first

Multiple people today saying Giants and Dolphins most likely to get Rosen.

Redskins hot team as for talk about trading up

Giants hot team as for talk about trading up from the 17th pick

 

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I know this has been said before, we need solid picks, but I see the draft talk swerving towards the splashy picks.  Avoid the kool-aid.

 

If the story is true that the Cards will not trade Rosen, then I hope that we avoid drafting anything but a project QB that will be safe behind McCoy and Keenum in 2019.  We have so many glaring holes, there is no reason to grab any of these "top tier" QBs.  Edge rusher, O-Line (2), DB, WR are place of need.  If Keenum and McCoy go down, we are screwed anyway.  Have a 2 year plan and build for the future, when Smith is gone and the QB we draft next year has a decent line to protect him.  We finally have a solid group in the backfield, lets get some people to block for them.

 

Just my $.02.  Carry on

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13 hours ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

Yep, I'm sold on Long.  I finished watching all of his cut ups that I can find from 2018, and I love what I see.  This kid flat out dominates the contact window and he never panics or gets ruffled by headfakes.  Doesn't bail until he knows he has to and thus doesn't give up a lot of cheap underneath crap.  Coverage instincts are outstanding in press man.  Sniffs out trickery and playmaking opportunities--very smart player.  Tremendous agility shows up in his pattern matching and ability to navigate through the trash on crossers without losing any ground.

 

EDIT: I could be wrong, because I didn't chart the plays, but I think I only saw Long give up three catches in the six cut ups I watched.  He was the key to Michigan's coverages.  They ran some brackets in the Ohio State game, he'd line up in press in the slot against the funky formations, and he did play a handful of snaps at deep safety/off man.  But other than that, it was just him in lock down mode on the outside in press man all of the time.  Quarterbacks would basically glance at him from time to time and just move right down the progression.  They simply wouldn't target him.

 

Size and length are meh.  Play strength is poor but he is physical and he battles.  Recovery speed is good but not elite.  Those are the reasons he's probably not a first round lock.  If you run press coverage on the outside, then I would put a first to second round grade on him for that kind of scheme, because I think his future is as a good starter in that role.  But I don't think zone heavy teams will value him as highly.

 

I want to draft him, but I worry he's Nickel only.  He's a small guy who sometimes looks dwarfed by the guys he's covering.  But his movement skills are insane.  He'll backpedal and sidestep fluidly along with the WR, mirroring their movements, while the WR's should be explosive enough with his more straight forward movements to separate.  Yet they don't.

 

If you've got a cutup of him and how he tackles or handles the run, I'd love to see it.

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1 minute ago, Alcoholic Zebra said:

If you've got a cutup of him and how he tackles or handles the run, I'd love to see it. 

 

He doesn't really play the run.  He doesn't get beat or give up position, and when he's the guy who has to make the play, he'll get hands on the receiver/back and won't whiff.  But he won't bring down people on his own.  His play strength is pretty low and he won't jump into the pile or join gang tackles.  But the main thing is he is virtually never playing the run.  Almost all of his snaps are in press man coverage on the split end and he's running with that guy down the field.

 

I expect that the specialization and lack of tackling/physicality in run support has led to a very wide disparity in his board placement for zone teams vs man teams.  He's a top 50 talent for a man team, but I think zone teams could have him as a day three pick.  Where he actually gets drafted will be really contingent on how the board breaks for man teams.

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2 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

 

 

What were the reason for the drops?  Not all drops are blameless by the QB.  One of my criticisms of Lock is his inability to throw touch passes.  No need to rocket a pass at the face of the RB whose 3 yards past the line of scrimmage.  That's an awkward thing to catch, and even if he does catch it, he probably has to contort his body and loses a chance for YAC.

 

He doesn't put any touch on it, I'm not seeing the nice catchable balls a RB can catch in stride.  Instead there's Lock, whipping lasers to his checkdown that doesn't have a defender near him.

 

I like Lock, but I think he needs to sit for a year and realize not everything has to be thrown hard.

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9 minutes ago, Alcoholic Zebra said:

 

What were the reason for the drops?  Not all drops are blameless by the QB.  One of my criticisms of Lock is his inability to throw touch passes.  No need to rocket a pass at the face of the RB whose 3 yards past the line of scrimmage.  That's an awkward thing to catch, and even if he does catch it, he probably has to contort his body and loses a chance for YAC.

 

He doesn't put any touch on it, I'm not seeing the nice catchable balls a RB can catch in stride.  Instead there's Lock, whipping lasers to his checkdown that doesn't have a defender near him.

 

I like Lock, but I think he needs to sit for a year and realize not everything has to be thrown hard.

 

 I recall months back watching multiple games of Lock and thinking his receivers really stink.   I had the same vibe watching Daniel Jones albeit I didn't like Jones.  With Lock it surprised me more because he has a receiver with a decent rep in E. Hall.   But it stuck in my head.  And for those that like Jones, i'll give that his supporting cast stunk.  that was obvious.  

 

I agree and disagree on your take on Lock as to short passes.  I agree he can have better touch on them.  I disagree that he rockets them -- I get the point because that to me seems more like what you'd expect from a dude with a rifle.  But to me the odd thing about him from my observation is he tends to under throw short passes especially under duress.  I recall commenting on it when I posted my review of him months back and at least one other person here agreed with that from their viewing of him.    

 

Lock's drops from what I recall where not from rifling short throws.  What stuck in my mind was some really nice throws down the field that were dropped.   Having said that I haven't charted them so who knows. 

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I'd be fine with Lock, but not Haskins or Jones (especially).  I think they need to take edge if its there at 15.  Sweat is a complete engima.  Matt Miller just tweeted that he could fall out of the first.  If Burns is gone, then take Ferrell.  He's safe and won't bust.  If Oliver goes top 5 (Jets), then who does TB take at 5?  Allen is a young edge they desperately need vs White?  Who does NYG take if Allen isn't on the board?

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Listened to Doug's presser.

 

Not a lot of substance as for getting gossip out of it.  They must have given Doug some good media coaching because last year he gave away more tidbits.

 

Just a few things i got out of it some of it is me extrapolating:

 

A.  They are more likely to trade down than trade up

B.  they want to trade down everything being equal unless there is a surprise drop

C.  The type of receiver they want is one who was a go to type on key downs in college.  Sounds like an AJ Brown type.  

 

 

 

18 minutes ago, mhd24 said:

I'd be fine with Lock, but not Haskins or Jones (especially).  I think they need to take edge if its there at 15.  Sweat is a complete engima.  Matt Miller just tweeted that he could fall out of the first.  If Burns is gone, then take Ferrell.  He's safe and won't bust.  If Oliver goes top 5 (Jets), then who does TB take at 5?  Allen is a young edge they desperately need vs White?  Who does NYG take if Allen isn't on the board?

 

Lots of links with Devin White and Tampa.  Giants supposedly like a bunch of D lineman including Wilkins. Or so are the rumorville thoughts. 

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26 minutes ago, Alcoholic Zebra said:

 

What were the reason for the drops?  Not all drops are blameless by the QB.  One of my criticisms of Lock is his inability to throw touch passes.  No need to rocket a pass at the face of the RB whose 3 yards past the line of scrimmage.  That's an awkward thing to catch, and even if he does catch it, he probably has to contort his body and loses a chance for YAC.

 

He doesn't put any touch on it, I'm not seeing the nice catchable balls a RB can catch in stride.  Instead there's Lock, whipping lasers to his checkdown that doesn't have a defender near him.

 

I like Lock, but I think he needs to sit for a year and realize not everything has to be thrown hard.

 

The drops are WRs dropping perfect passes.

 

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24 minutes ago, Anselmheifer said:

What's the draft skinny on Marvell Tell? Have you guys scouted him? His mock draftable profile is crazy good, but his 40 time at the pro day wasn't awesome and he only put up 8 reps of 225. 

 

https://www.mockdraftable.com/player/marvell-tell

 

Watched one of his games.   He played free safety. A lot of single high.  On occasion they'd bring him up where he mostly blitzed in those rare cases.  I noticed Dane Brugler sees him as a corner as opposed to safety.

 

I didn't really see him making a lot of plays in the game I watched but he seem to anticipate well and looked fluid doing so.  

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The good thing about this draft and having so many needs, is it probably means a lot less griping by fans about choices.

Being so many needs, you can make a case for just about any position to be addressed in the draft.

There will still be griping. Like, about where they drafted it and whether they got proper value for the pick, but it hopefully should be a lot less griping than in the past. :)

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