2019 Comprehensive Draft Thread

[RWJ]

 

7 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

As for AJ Brown I recall him being the top guy more so early-mid last college season and then buzz started building among other things that Metcalf is better.  Metcalf and M. Brown seem to be the consensus first rounders now.  AJ Brown is typically in the 2nd in most mocks now that I've noticed.    As for Deebo some launched him into the late first post senior bowl but still mostly kept in the 2nd.

I still like Isabella in the 3rd round.  

[Skinsinparadise]

6 minutes ago, RWJ said:

 

I still like Isabella in the 3rd round.  

 Will see what he runs on Saturday.  I am good with Isabella.  I am good with a bunch of WRs in this draft.  I hope they take one.

[Skinsinparadise]

This isn't the first time I've seen Layne mentioned recently as to hype.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[PlayAction]

4 hours ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

The further in we get, the more people have begun recognizing Murray's quality and value, and the more convinced I am that the only QB who will be left for us at 15 is Daniel Jones.  I think Murray and Haskins go top five, Lock goes top ten, and Jones is our pick at 15.

As far as the personality concerns go, those don't really worry me.  I think he'll be smart, low maintenance, professional, and reliable.  I think the biggest thing he has going for him compared to the other QB prospects is that he is by far the toughest QB in the class.  

Put another way, Jones's personality reminds me of Brandon Scherff's.  He plays the position with courage.  He's just not that talented.  Damned if he doesn't seem like Eli Manning with real open field speed and running ability.  That's an upgrade over a healthy Alex Smith.  But if we're starting over at the position and spending a first round pick, I was hoping for a bigger upgrade than getting the running version of Eli.

 

Well, Eli was the #1 pick and with a supporting cast went to the Super bowl more than once. So, if we get a young Eli Manning with better mobility that selection will be a significant improvement over what the Skins have had in 20 years.  I'm all for QBs being picked early.  If the Skins aren't in the market (for trade ups) or otherwise then the Skins get to pick higher on their board.  If the best QB at pick 15 is not expected to be as good as the 5th best QB next year then it's better to wait and build the supporting cast this year, i.e., WRs, TE, LG and upgrade the OL backups.    

[Going Commando]

1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said:

8.2 is decent for YPA.  6.8 isn't.  Eli is close to the magic number as to a 3:1 TD-INT ratio that some say scouts look for from college qbs.  Jones doesn't even pull off a 2:1 ratio. 

 

Your numbers for Jones are off.  He had 22 passing TDs against 9 INTs on the season.

 

It's worth noting in comparing those seasons that Eli played all 13 games and Jones missed two with an injury.  If you extrapolate his numbers over 13 games, his season is: 280 completions on 463 attempts, 3160 yards, and 26 TDs against 10 INTs.  That's not far off from Eli's season, and the difference in pass production is offset by Jones's production on the ground.  And this was Jones's JR year against Eli's SR year.

 

Holding his injury against him is wrong headed.  If anything it's one of the most impressive things about his season and his character.  He broke his collar bone and was back on the field for VT week two weeks later.  That is remarkable.  Shades of Brandon Scherff going back to practice within a week of having surgery on his meniscus.  Holding the fact that he was one of the most sacked QBs in the country against him is also wrong headed.  It doesn't take a lot of time watching him to see his offensive line was garbage and had chronic trouble matching up.  Couple that with the issues at receiver and tight end and Jones was pretty much on his own this year.  It's actually fairly impressive that Duke won 8 games.

 

I don't think Jones's upside is that high, but I think it's better than Alex Smith's.  I don't want to trash Smith because he suffered a gruesome injury playing for us and he's a tough guy and a class act, but I will say this in comparison of Smith to Jones: their strengths and weaknesses are fairly similar, but Jones doesn't play the position with fear like Smith does.  He's a fighter who plays with balls.  Their playing styles are so different.  And he is much bigger and stronger than Smith is, and that alone is an important difference between them.

 

I haven't really responded to your complaints about Jones's personality, but I think you're going way too far in killing him for it.  First off, there is no way any of us can really know what his personality is like from where we sit.  It can be dodgy forming really strong opinions about the personalities of prospects based on the small slices of information we get about the players in interviews and press conferences and from draftnik observers.  Especially with reserved players like Jones.  Second, there is nothing wrong with being a quiet leader with a reserved personality at QB.  Eli, Luck, Flacco, Mariota, and Ryan are all quiet guys with flat, reserved personalities who were/are successful leaders at the position.  I think the main things that NFL locker rooms look for in their QBs are:

 

1) Toughness

2) Work ethic

3) Consistency
4) Selflessness

 

If you do those things, I think a locker room will get behind you whether you are quiet or have a outspoken personality, or even if you're otherwise a diva and a jerk.

[Going Commando]

57 minutes ago, PlayAction said:

Well, Eli was the #1 pick and with a supporting cast went to the Super bowl more than once. So, if we get a young Eli Manning with better mobility that selection will be a significant improvement over what the Skins have had in 20 years. 

 

I agree.  Eli would easily be the best QB we've had in decades aside from maybe Kirk or RGIII had he not wrecked his knee.  But that's a low bar.  And it took an extremely strong supporting cast of offensive line and skill position talent plus an all timer caliber DL for the Giants to get those two SBs with Eli.  You can win with a middle of the road talent like Eli, but it would be so much easier to win with a bigger talent at the position.

 

I think we're definitely in the market for QBs, but I don't think we'll be able to trade up for a blue chipper like Murray or Haskins from 15.  It would necessitate a DeShaun Watson-like slide on draft day, which feels very unlikely.

 

Jones will probably end up being our only real option.

 

I'm not a huge fan of kicking the QB can down the road.  When you don't have a QB, you might as well not even trot a team out for the season.  If you don't have a QB then you have nothing.  They are the foundation for competitiveness, even when they aren't that great, and you can't function without one.   Guys like Williams and Gruden and Allen will not survive the season if they don't get a QB with the upside to become a starter in this draft.  They could all get fired anyway if Jones is a bust, but that chance is better than the certainty that they'll all get fired as a result of striking out looking.  If we are horrible and have the opportunity to draft a much bigger talent at the position next offseason, than we can still do so.  Especially since we'd almost certainly be bringing in a new FO and coaching staff to make the choice.

 

I would much prefer to draft a QB with more upside than Jones has, but it looks like that is not how the deck will break for us.  We were supposed to be able to put off finding our next QB for a couple of years and making a couple of runs with a defense and offense that is almost fully built, but the Alex Smith injury was an unequivocal disaster that screwed us over.  And now we're in a situation where we have to take what we can get at the position just to salvage any kind of window of opportunity with this defense and OL, no matter how narrow it is.  It's a bad hand, but the alternative is forfeiting the 2019 season in April, and that is just not going to happen.  Nor should it.  That would be a huge **** you to everyone in Redskins park.

[Skinsinparadise]

11 hours ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

Your numbers for Jones are off.  He had 22 passing TDs against 9 INTs on the season.

 

 

You are right as for 2018 specifically as to TD-INT on that I pulled the wrong season from him on that count.  The rest of the stats are accurate but for the TD-INT i mistakingly took Jones' 2016 season. 

 

11 hours ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

It's worth noting in comparing those seasons that Eli played all 13 games and Jones missed two with an injury. 

 

If we are going to extrapolate in a positive way what those 2 games lost mean -- then it cuts both ways.  So it also means he has an even bigger fumbling problem then it looks.  Takes even more sacks.  Would have even more tipped balls.  So highlighting the two games he missed is a double edge sword for him. 

 

11 hours ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

Holding his injury against him is wrong headed.  If anything it's one of the most impressive things about his season and his character.  He broke his collar bone and was back on the field for VT week two weeks later.  That is remarkable. 

 

My point had nothing to do with his toughness.  I highlighted Jones' toughness awhile ago when I did my full take on him.  But he's already had two injuries in his young career.  Does that end up meaning anything.  You got me.  But there is reason why a prospects injury history is mentioned as part of the soup in that it might be relevant down the road.  My point has nothing to do with his ability to rise above injuries.  

 

11 hours ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

  Holding the fact that he was one of the most sacked QBs in the country against him is also wrong headed. 

 

At this point, I've watched a lot of games from a lot of QBs coming out in this draft and i'll just say Jones wasn't the only dude with a bad supporting cast.  So I think if the dude has a disproportionate number of sacks, tipped balls and fumbles compared to his peers it stands out.  And i am not the only guy mentioning this point.  So its at least part of the discussion about him.  The thing is if anything he should have had it easier than some prospects with mediocre supporting casts considering how Duke's offense was heavy on the quick-short game.  

 

I'd add there are metrics some of which I posted as to QBs performances under pressure.  Jones' wasn't rated hot in that regard. 

 

11 hours ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

I don't think Jones's upside is that high, but I think it's better than Alex Smith's.  I don't want to trash Smith because he suffered a gruesome injury playing for us and he's a tough guy and a class act, but I will say this in comparison of Smith to Jones: their strengths and weaknesses are fairly similar, but Jones doesn't play the position with fear like Smith does.  He's a fighter who plays with balls.  Their playing styles are so different.  And he is much bigger and stronger than Smith is, and that alone is an important difference between them.

 

I agree with the fearlessness and toughness.  Again I highlighted this myself awhile ago.  Today, I've hit D. Jones but I've given my full take on him before including what i saw as his positive attributes.   Alex is more skittish in the pocket.  But otherwise - both Alex and Jones aren't gun slingers and they are both low YPA guys.  Look I am not a scout obviously but from what I read including multiple books from QB guru types -- they feel that YPA is one of the most important metrics to judge a QB as for their success.  Their point is you want a QB who can challenge a defense at every level on the field.  And they are looking for a QB who can fling the ball short AND intermediate AND long.  Or so they say.  Jones according to one guy who charted him -- showed statistically how his accuracy falls off a cliff after 10 yards and much more so than other top prospects.  in the senior bowl, i read multiple times that scouts in practices had concerns about his ability to throw into tight windows.  So back to Alex -- he's typically been a low YPA guy but at the same time he doesn't turn the ball over.  Jones for a low YPA Qb guy surprisingly does indeed turn the ball over.

 

11 hours ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

I haven't really responded to your complaints about Jones's personality, but I think you're going way too far in killing him for it.  First off, there is no way any of us can really know what his personality is like from where we sit.  

 

I am not on an island on Jones' personality.  I happened to watch him in an interview and it really caught me off guard because I thought wow I've never seen a soft spoken QB ever.   All of the QBs you mentioned as analogous, I've never had issue with.  This is a different thing IMO and isn't to me apples to apples to any of those players.  That led me to explore that further including reading multiple comments from people who met him and know him.  And yes, people think he is a really nice guy and I don't doubt that.  But I've heard that he's very shy, struggles to make eye contact, is soft spoken.

 

It's not some quirky thing of mine that no one else is talking about.  Heck NFL.com wrote an article about all 4 QBs the other day -- the lead headline about Jones related to his personality.  But yeah if I saw him the way you describe like he's another Luck (who actually has a personality) -- I'd shrug my shoulders too and think that dude is crazy to have concerns about Jones.  But no I am not talking about an Andrew Luck personality.  Andrew and Mariotta or heck even Eli aren't soft spoken.  You don't have to ask them if they can speak loud enough for their teammates to hear him in the huddle as i've heard Jones now asked multiple times about. 

 

This isn't a deal breaker to me.  But I don't find it totally irrelevant either.  To me its just another thing in the soup but it counts IMO.  And yeah I've watched my share of Jones interviews including podcasts and sometimes he comes off fine but i've seen enough and heard enough to not be in love with his personality specifically in terms of leading this team.  If I thought he was an electric player, I'd ignore it. 

[Fresh8686]

If Daniel Jones is the most likeliest guy, any realistic chance that we can trade down a bit and still pick him up?

[Skinsinparadise]

32 minutes ago, Fresh8686 said:

If Daniel Jones is the most likeliest guy, any realistic chance that we can trade down a bit and still pick him up?

 

If he escapes 15, I think why not?  No one picking after us I think is desperate for a QB.  My take about Jones is I think he's a projection.  And I don't see what makes him distinctly that less of a projection than the next run of QBs like Stidham, Rypien, Finley, Grier, etc.  So to me I'd have no issue taking Jones in the 2nd-3rd round range and then maybe be surprised on the upside without taking that much of a risk as for sacrificing a draft pick.  Could he fall that far?  Some draft geeks think yes.  I got my doubts though because most overreach for a QB so if he escapes the first, I'd bet someone takes him early 2nd rd above us.  And that would be fine with me. 😉

 

I like a lot of SteveMcQueen1 takes and respect his opinion.  And he could be right about this one.  Will see.  We agree on a lot.  Heck if I recall we both love the same favorite potential prospect at 15 - Hockenson.  And if i recall we both like Lock more than most among other things.   This is one where I disagree.  Personally, I'd be really surprised if Jones is another Eli but just more mobile.  If that's how Jones turns out -- then I am on board.  But I don't believe that.   

 

Jones might be the most polarizing QB with national draft geeks that I can recall.  Some see it the way I do.  Some think he's the goods.  Heck I noticed ditto on twitter with different fan bases -- I follow some Giant reporters and fans and its funny to read their comments pro-and con -- mostly con about Jones.  I can say with confidence more than (and by a mile) any projected first rounder QB in this draft -- whatever team takes Jones will have their share of fans that go ballistic about it. 🙁  Count me in that group if we take him in the first.  If its in the 2nd or some trade down in the first, I am fine with it albeit I'd rather they don't. 

 

 

[Bonez3]

Draft depth!!! 

 

OL and DB are on my wish list in first 3 rounds. 2 of each with the supplemental

[Skinsinparadise]

Just listened to Sheehan's podcast. He talked to Finlay who said he is at a stage where he is gathering info but he did slip that he knows in the mix they like Jarrett Stidham.

[RWJ]

21 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Just listened to Sheehan's podcast. He talked to Finlay who said he is at a stage where he is gathering info but he did slip that he knows in the mix they like Jarrett Stidham.

I can see Stidham getting drafted in the late 2nd early 3rd round of the draft.  How about you, SIP.  Skins will need to draft 2 OL with their first 4 picks, IMO.

[Skinsinparadise]

55 minutes ago, RWJ said:

I can see Stidham getting drafted in the late 2nd early 3rd round of the draft.  How about you, SIP.  Skins will need to draft 2 OL with their first 4 picks, IMO.

 

As for Stidham I really like his arm and accuracy but can you teach pocket presence?  don't know.  But I am not stressed about any QB they take outside of round 1 especially if its the third round or beyond. I'll ride with whomever it is.

 

I am a big BPA as for the draft.  I was messing around with a draft simulator just now and it really hit home when you have options that you can't anticipate.  In those cases, I like taking BPA or my version of that.  Here was one I recently did.  The simulator doesn't give you all the picks to work with.   So while in theory I want an O lineman, I am not a fan of forcing any pick.  I actually think a good blocking TE is almost as important as finding a LG.  As for FA, then I am all making decisions based on need. 

 

 

[skinny21]

40 minutes ago, RWJ said:

I can see Stidham getting drafted in the late 2nd early 3rd round of the draft.  How about you, SIP.  Skins will need to draft 2 OL with their first 4 picks, IMO.

I honestly hardly know a thing about the OL in this draft, but rounds 2-3 have very solid depth, IMO, at TE (though I wonder how concerned they are about this position), WR (big need), corner (arguably a big need), and safety (also a big need).  Add qb in that mix and it may be hard to justify 2 OL picks. 

 

 

[RWJ]

1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

As for Stidham I really like his arm and accuracy but can you teach pocket presence?  don't know.  But I am not stressed about any QB they take outside of round 1 especially if its the third round or beyond. I'll ride with whomever it is.

 

I am a big BPA as for the draft.  I was messing around with a draft simulator just now and it really hit home when you have options that you can't anticipate.  In those cases, I like taking BPA or my version of that.  Here was one I recently did.  The simulator doesn't give you all the picks to work with.   So while in theory I want an O lineman, I am not a fan of forcing any pick.  I actually think a good blocking TE is almost as important as finding a LG.  As for FA, then I am all making decisions based on need. 

 

 

SIP, I tried their site and wasn't impressed with how they have their players projected.  Some are too high and some are too low.  JMO.  Also, they haven't incorporated all out picks in their mock draft.  I know they are a work in progress so I will give it time.  

[skinny21]

9 minutes ago, RWJ said:

SIP, I tried their site and wasn't impressed with how they have their players projected.  Some are too high and some are too low.  JMO.  Also, they haven't incorporated all out picks in their mock draft.  I know they are a work in progress so I will give it time.  

Yeah, I have to agree (though of course, who knows how it shakes out on draft day).  

I just wound up with this group:

TJ Hockenson, Deebo Samuel, Chris Lindstrom, Will Grier, Porter Gustin, Emmanuel Hall, Wes Hills, Jimmy Moreland, and... Christian Miller.  

 

And for anyone hating the Grier pick , I could have had (though I didn’t see it at the time) Deandre Walker instead.  

[RWJ]

34 minutes ago, skinny21 said:

Yeah, I have to agree (though of course, who knows how it shakes out on draft day).  

I just wound up with this group:

TJ Hockenson, Deebo Samuel, Chris Lindstrom, Will Grier, Porter Gustin, Emmanuel Hall, Wes Hills, Jimmy Moreland, and... Christian Miller.  

 

And for anyone hating the Grier pick , I could have had (though I didn’t see it at the time) Deandre Walker instead.  

Sounds like the site let you have all 9 selections.  I was only allotted 6 picks.  Hmmmm.     

[Skinsinparadise]

6 hours ago, skinny21 said:

Yeah, I have to agree (though of course, who knows how it shakes out on draft day).  

I just wound up with this group:

TJ Hockenson, Deebo Samuel, Chris Lindstrom, Will Grier, Porter Gustin, Emmanuel Hall, Wes Hills, Jimmy Moreland, and... Christian Miller.  

 

And for anyone hating the Grier pick , I could have had (though I didn’t see it at the time) Deandre Walker instead.  

 

In the Draft Network's defense though they aren't a follow the herd crew so some of their takes do not dovetail other mocks.  For example, Daniel Jones, who in most mocks is a mid first to 2nd rounder, I could have had him in one of their simulations in the 4th round.  I skipped him anyway. 😀  they love I notice Burns more than most.  Surprised you could get Hockenson.   He was gone in all 4 simulations I did. 

 

I know they aren't big on Ferguson.  That's why I was able to get him later in the draft than I think will happen in reality.  So they don't hide from their specific quirks.

7 hours ago, skinny21 said:

I honestly hardly know a thing about the OL in this draft, but rounds 2-3 have very solid depth, IMO, at TE (though I wonder how concerned they are about this position), WR (big need), corner (arguably a big need), and safety (also a big need).  Add qb in that mix and it may be hard to justify 2 OL picks. 

 

 

 

Yeah agree.  Only reason why I took J. Williams in one of the simulators I did is some prospects I liked better were gone and i liked the idea of slotting him at guard and moving him later to LT when Trent retires, give him the time to strengthen up some.

 

My favorite pick of the ones I took is Sternberger.  The more I dive into him as a player the more I like him.  If they don't go TE in the first, and I don't think they will --and they can get him where I got him, I'd love that pick.

 

 

[Skinsinparadise]

6 hours ago, RWJ said:

SIP, I tried their site and wasn't impressed with how they have their players projected.  Some are too high and some are too low.  JMO.  Also, they haven't incorporated all out picks in their mock draft.  I know they are a work in progress so I will give it time.  

 

I hear you but some too high, some too low is in the eye of the beholder.  I probably post more mocks than anyone on this thread but still they are just guesses.  There are almost always surprises in reality that go off the "consensus" script. 

[bowhunter]

6 hours ago, skinny21 said:

Yeah, I have to agree (though of course, who knows how it shakes out on draft day).  

I just wound up with this group:

TJ Hockenson, Deebo Samuel, Chris Lindstrom, Will Grier, Porter Gustin, Emmanuel Hall, Wes Hills, Jimmy Moreland, and... Christian Miller.  

 

And for anyone hating the Grier pick , I could have had (though I didn’t see it at the time) Deandre Walker instead.  

That would be an amazing draft. A dynamic TE, WR, OG and an exciting QB? Almost pipe dreamish

[HigSkin]

 

[Rogue Jedi]

Lol I hope Snyder and Jay go all in for Murray.

 

At least the Skins will be fun to watch again regardless of our W/L record.

[skinny21]

 

1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Yeah agree.  Only reason why I took J. Williams in one of the simulators I did is some prospects I liked better were gone and i liked the idea of slotting him at guard and moving him later to LT when Trent retires, give him the time to strengthen up some.

I meant to quote your response about my taking Hockenson in the first - my bad SIP, I realized after the fact I was on a different site.  As to taking Williams - I think that’s a very solid pick (from what I’ve read on him - haven’t watched tape).  I certainly hope we wind up with a G (or better yet, G/T), but I’d be too tempted by other positions to back to that well a second time early.  

1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

My favorite pick of the ones I took is Sternberger.  The more I dive into him as a player the more I like him.  If they don't go TE in the first, and I don't think they will --and they can get him where I got him, I'd love that pick.

 

 

I definitely like Sternberger, and I’d love that pick as well.  Was it Kiper’s mock (you posted) that has him going early second round?  

56 minutes ago, bowhunter said:

That would be an amazing draft. A dynamic TE, WR, OG and an exciting QB? Almost pipe dreamish

Yeah, I can’t see it going that way at all, but I’d be over the moon.  Haven’t really watched Hills play (though I like what I’ve read), but could have gone Bryce Love or Miles Gaskin instead.  I’m gonna have to stay away from those simulators because 1) I’ll clutter the board in my excitement, and 2) it’s probably going to be a let down when the actual draft results roll in, lol.  

 

 

SIP - to your point (yesterday?) about trading back, there are a handful of guys I’d stay pat for at 15, but if they’re gone, I like the talent so much in the 2nd thru 4th that I’d take the extra pick with the trade back.  Especially considering that I’d love to land a TE, corner, edge rusher, WR, ILB, S, qb, G and back, lol.  I like Polite at 15, for example, but if I could get Winovich/Walker and then Montgomery (or whoever) with the added pick, I’m going for that instead.  

[crabbypatty]

13 hours ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

I'm not a huge fan of kicking the QB can down the road.  When you don't have a QB, you might as well not even trot a team out for the season.  If you don't have a QB then you have nothing.  They are the foundation for competitiveness, even when they aren't that great, and you can't function without one.   Guys like Williams and Gruden and Allen will not survive the season if they don't get a QB with the upside to become a starter in this draft.  They could all get fired anyway if Jones is a bust, but that chance is better than the certainty that they'll all get fired as a result of striking out looking.  If we are horrible and have the opportunity to draft a much bigger talent at the position next offseason, than we can still do so.  Especially since we'd almost certainly be bringing in a new FO and coaching staff to make the choice.

 

I would much prefer to draft a QB with more upside than Jones has, but it looks like that is not how the deck will break for us.  We were supposed to be able to put off finding our next QB for a couple of years and making a couple of runs with a defense and offense that is almost fully built, but the Alex Smith injury was an unequivocal disaster that screwed us over.  And now we're in a situation where we have to take what we can get at the position just to salvage any kind of window of opportunity with this defense and OL, no matter how narrow it is.  It's a bad hand, but the alternative is forfeiting the 2019 season in April, and that is just not going to happen.  Nor should it.  That would be a huge **** you to everyone in Redskins park.

 

Agreed. That's why I don't get the "roll with Colt" and draft Tua or Lawrence in 2020 comments. Next year is next year. Trotting out a team with Colt and JJ is a giant middle finger to everyone. They HAVE to get a qb one way or another. The problems with people wanting to wait for a "franchise qb" in 2020 are twofold.

1. There's no guarantee the skins will be able to get either of those guys

2. There's no guarantee that the next great thing doesn't suffer some gruesome injury or just end up sucking.

 

It seems awfully short sighted to me to tank a season, and wait in the hopes of getting a guy who may or may not have a good/great season next year, based off of how they played last year.

[Skinsinparadise]

24 minutes ago, skinny21 said:

 

I meant to quote your response about my taking Hockenson in the first - my bad SIP, I realized after the fact I was on a different site.  As to taking Williams - I think that’s a very solid pick (from what I’ve read on him - haven’t watched tape).  I certainly hope we wind up with a G (or better yet, G/T), but I’d be too tempted by other positions to back to that well a second time early.  

 

Hockenson has gone from being a late first rounder in mocks to more recently a top 10 guy a lot.  Hate all the buzz he's getting.  I want him to fall to 15.  So hopefully all these recent mocks are off. 😀  As for Jonah Williams, I know Ferrell got the better end of that exchange in the Orange Bowl but if you move him to guard I think he's a safe pick.  Ditto J. Taylor and C. Ford.  I wouldn't hate any one of them taken at 15 albeit I prefer a pass rusher like Ferrell-Polite maybe Burns or Hockenson who would be my guy if he falls.

 

In some mocks Drew Lock falls to 15 and beyond.  I wouldn't hate that either.  It's not that I am 100% sold on him but I am much more sold on his potential than I am Jones.

 

24 minutes ago, skinny21 said:

 

I definitely like Sternberger, and I’d love that pick as well.  Was it Kiper’s mock (you posted) that has him going early second round?  

 

 

I think that was Kadar.  But yeah statistically speaking he was quietly the top TE in this draft group last year -- TDs, YPA, etc.  And watching him, he is a spirited YAC guy in the open field.  I posted a clip on the weekend of him plowing through multiple safeties and churning forward.  He's also a decent blocker -- not a great blocker like Hockenson -- but a dude who can pass block and plow through O lineman in the run game.   

 

24 minutes ago, skinny21 said:

 

SIP - to your point (yesterday?) about trading back, there are a handful of guys I’d stay pat for at 15, but if they’re gone, I like the talent so much in the 2nd thru 4th that I’d take the extra pick with the trade back.  Especially considering that I’d love to land a TE, corner, edge rusher, WR, ILB, S, qb, G and back, lol.  I like Polite at 15, for example, but if I could get Winovich/Walker and then Montgomery (or whoever) with the added pick, I’m going for that instead.  

 

I am ok with trading back but it depends on the situation.  I made the point more in the context of Jones.  I've ripped Jones so much that some might think I am saying the dude is garbage.  But that's not my take.  My take on Jones is he's in that next tier of QBs:  Grier, Rypien, Stidham, Finley, etc.  I don't think he belongs in the top half of the first round.  So my take is if they fall for Jones then at least trade down to get him because I think if he doesn't go 15, he will likely drop to the late first round or early 2nd.   

 

Could any of these 2nd tier Qbs become really good Qbs?  Sure, why not.  But I think its a projection and I wouldn't put heavy odds on it.   Like you I probably like Grier the most in that group right now but they are all close to me with each having different attributes. So its tough for me to project if one succeeds which one that will be.  Scouts like to say there is nothing more confounding than choosing QBs in the draft -- so I am not pretending I got it figured out without their expertise and all the additional information they got -- interviews, etc.  

 

The combine should be interesting for Grier for better or worse.  I suspect Stidham will shine at the combine because in my view his strength is throwing the ball with a clean pocket and in the combine he will have that -- and the dude IMO has the best arm within that 2nd tier group.  But I don't trust Stidham when the pocket isn't clean and the reports that he struggles in pressure spots in games (which I haven't tracked myself) concern me.  

 

As for Jones, he seems to be an either love him or hate him prospect for most.  I doubt anything at the combine changes that for him.   Lock has an opportunity I gather to showcase some consistency with his throws -- the rap I noticed on Lock is his footwork and by extension play is inconsistent -- so he's a love him or hate him prospect it seems too but not as polarizing as Jones.