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2019 Comprehensive Draft Thread

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22 minutes ago, skins2victory said:

Show me a list of successful running style QB's that have had long careers. They are very few and far between. The list of successful non running style QB's would be about 20 times longer. 

 

This conversation is getting off topic for this thread. I feel that it would be a terrible decision for our franchise to draft a running QB, not alone a very small statured one at that. @volsmet if you think Murry's the prospect for us, then we see  things very differently. But i am sure going to hope that our franchise doesn't make that risky decision.

 

The athleticism is something a defense can’t prepare for, we saw that all year in a far lesser athlete, Pat Mahomes; that said, his running ability is not where his value is, he proved all any QB could as a passer. 

 

*Of note, with RG comparisons; RG3 couldn’t slide & it cost him — I wager Murray has some comfort with it. 

 

 

 

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Again you are discounting my biggest point, HIS SIZE. I don't think he will be able to withstand the hits an NFL QB will take over the coarse of a season, and a career with his small stature. And a smaller QB is more likely to be injured from these hits than a big one. He was able to make it through college, but the pro's is a different ball game. I obviously wont have a say come draft day, but if it was my decision he would not be on my day 1 draft board due to his size.

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9 hours ago, volsmet said:

 

Alex Smith, Sanchez & Colt 2.0.

 

 

 

By your logic, we should play without a QB. I’m in. 

 

What would you like to see us do? Hold out for 2020? I’m in. 

I think we build at positions of need, this draft,  which are aplenty and role with Mccoy and Johnson.   And draft a QB next year.  That has always been my position.   These are, for the most part, "project" QBs.  

 

But worry not @volsmet Bruce Allen thinks we are sooooooo "close" he will take whatever is left at the 15th pick.  

 

 

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On 2/13/2019 at 2:03 AM, volsmet said:

Just highlights but it displays some of what Thorson offers.

 

Right now my QBs would rank:

Murray

Lock

Haskins

Jones/Thorson

Rypien

Jansen

Jackson

 

Right now, I wouldn’t draft anyone else in any round, I haven’t looked much at Stidham because I’ve seen him scared so often, I’ll need to see if that initial perception is warranted.

I'd arrange my list based on a few things, but it'd look like this:

Lock - Rocket arm strength and way more starts vs SEC competition

Haskins - Not completely sold on a one year starter, great stats though, has physical ability

Murray - Mighty mouse size, one year starter. He'd be further down the list due to his size except his arm and legs are so much better than the guys below him

Jones - This guy just screams "meh" all the way around

Stidham - I like his arm strength and footwork, his wr's dropped so many damn passes it was criminal - SEC experience

Finley - Alex Smith Jr. The "safe" pick, doesn't wow in any area. Vanilla.

Rypien - Like his arm but small stature and college comp hurts

Thorson/Grier/etc. all these guys are pretty blah. Sub par competition, not elite measurables, weak arms extremely limited imo

Edited by crabbypatty
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10 hours ago, skins2victory said:

Again you are discounting my biggest point, HIS SIZE. I don't think he will be able to withstand the hits an NFL QB will take over the coarse of a season, and a career with his small stature. And a smaller QB is more likely to be injured from these hits than a big one. He was able to make it through college, but the pro's is a different ball game. I obviously wont have a say come draft day, but if it was my decision he would not be on my day 1 draft board due to his size.

 

Well, you have attempted to make several points & when they’re addressed you ignore logic entirely. There are concerns with every QB, your concern is with him being able to withstand physical punishment — that’s something the league has done all it can to address, something his size & athleticism will help him avoid, as it does Wilson. We can’t all get a Wentz or a Luck — guys immune to the tolls of physical punishment. 

 

 

3 hours ago, skinsmania123 said:

I think we build at positions of need, this draft,  which are aplenty and role with Mccoy and Johnson.   And draft a QB next year.  That has always been my position.   These are, for the most part, "project" QBs.  

 

But worry not @volsmet Bruce Allen thinks we are sooooooo "close" he will take whatever is left at the 15th pick.  

 

 

 

If things went as most project, I would trade out of round 1 entirely and into 2020/2021. 

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3 hours ago, crabbypatty said:

I'd arrange my list based on a few things, but it'd look like this:

Lock - Rocket arm strength and way more starts vs SEC competition

Haskins - Not completely sold on a one year starter, great stats though, has physical ability

Murray - Mighty mouse size, one year starter. He'd be further down the list due to his size except his arm and legs are so much better than the guys below him

Jones - This guy just screams "meh" all the way around

Stidham - I like his arm strength and footwork, his wr's dropped so many damn passes it was criminal - SEC experience

Finley - Alex Smith Jr. The "safe" pick, doesn't wow in any area. Vanilla.

Rypien - Like his arm but small stature and college comp hurts

Thorson/Grier/etc. all these guys are pretty blah. Sub par competition, not elite measurables, weak arms extremely limited imo

 

I like that list quite a bit. I put Jansen, actual name Hansen, on my list with Jackson just because of the raw talent — if you can make them look good for a preseason or 2, they’ll have value in a trade. What round are you looking at those guys in?

 

This could change of course:

 

1) Lock, Haskins, Murray

2) —

3) —

4) Thorson/Rypien 

5) Jackson

6) —

7) Hansen

 

Watching Stidham v Bama in 2017 was more impressive than what I thought I’d see. Finley I’m going to watch again. Jones is far too cluttered for me right now, his range - from scouts - seems to be from top 5 to 5th round, which means he’s probably isn’t good enough to go in the top 2 rounds - I’m having trouble with him. 

 

I dont think Thorson has a weak arm, I’ll look at that more closely. When I watch him I picture those passes being thrown to Metcalf, Brown, & Lodge and think he’d be higher on most boards if so. He looks like he pushes it outside without much effort, but I liked him early and may be viewing him with some bias. 

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This confirms the study from another guy who charted Jones' throws who said his accuracy drops off the roof after 10 yards.  Murray looks good here. 

 

 

 

 
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On 2/13/2019 at 8:53 AM, skinny21 said:

Try the Texas game from this year @volsmet.  Even if Grier makes you nauseous, at least there’s plenty of excitement, crazy officiating (including a WTH? ejection), and last minute heroics. 😁

 

So after the first half, I just can’t imagine drafting him in any round. He struggles mightily to get anything down field without a lot of loft, he puts maximum effort to get the ball outside, on the near hash, and the ball takes forever to get there - in the nfl that’s just getting someone killed. At the end of the half he tries fitting in a back shoulder throw, but he can’t push the ball without leaving it up for eternity, time after time his passes sail, short & intermediate. You see a broken play, he attempted to make something of it, but when he moves he can’t do much, the balls just sail. He had 8 throws that were wasted, all high. In the first pass, he takes his time, he gets the ball to the right guy, but it’s a lot of effort and the pass as nothing on it, his arm is not strong enough. On a pass he throws over the RBs head, which is fine, he has Sills at the bottom, but he doesn’t even look, he knows he’s not sticking in a 10 yard dig on the opposite hash, that’s a pick6 on an extraordinarily simple throw that he can’t make unless it’s his first read - he’s not resetting quickly and getting that pass in, not a chance.

 

Right now, I wouldn’t want him as an udfa. 

 

 

 

 

 

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2 hours ago, volsmet said:

 

Right now, I wouldn’t want him as an udfa. 

 

 

Who is tougher?  Volsmet on Grier?  Or me at Daniel Jones?  😀

 

Interesting dynamic about the Denver trade for Flacco.  Some saying they still might draft a QB early some saying no.  Lock was supposed to be Elway's man crush.  If they go elsewhere at #10 is there a shot he falls to us?

 

As much as I don't care for Jones' personality and play -- I love Lock's personality and tools.  Though I admit I haven't watched Lock much so I need to dive in. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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7 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Who is tougher?  Volsmet on Grier?  Or me at Daniel Jones?  😀

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

There is a better chance of this world being taken over by a pack of diminutive Portuguese speaking lizards than there is of Grier being a good player in the nfl.

 

 

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11 minutes ago, volsmet said:

 

There is a better chance of this world being taken over by a pack of diminutive Portuguese speaking lizards than there is of Grier being a good player in the nfl.

 

 

 

Lol, then you got me beat.  😀   I don't want Jones in the first round but if for some reasons he falls and they take a flier on him in the 2nd -- I wouldn't like it but wouldn't hate it. 

 

I am just on the hate it in the first round drill for Jones and my gut is he either ends up a bust at worst or at best a marginal starter as a WCO QB with a short quick game.  As for Grier, I liked him in the games I've watched him but haven't studied him and am not pounding the table for him -- and as I've said some people I respect like Jon Ledyard (who seems to match my view about more prospects than anyone) doesn't care for Grier so that gives me pause.  He doesn't care for Jones either so I agree with him there. 

 

I think some of my opinions about players until I dive in is predicated on the games I happened to watch.  And there is definitely some random aspect of that because if you happen to watch a good game or bad game it can over-inflate or under-inflate an opinion.  

 

My take right now.

 

A. Wouldn't hate trading up some for Haskins or Murray -- but would probably hate trading up big to get either one.

B.  Would hate Jones at #15

C.  Would like lock at 15 but I admit I have to dive into him more to form an opinion

D.  I wouldn't like drafting ANY QB in round 2 but wouldn't hate it if they took one

E.  Prefer they take someone in the third or later and am not so picky as to whom since I am not convinced any of them have "it"

Edited by Skinsinparadise
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Look I like Will Grier's moxy, (and not because I'm a WVU fan), he's not afraid to move around the pocket, but I think he needs to sit a year wherever he goes so he might not be a great fit for us for that reason.   Grier wasn't as half hazard with the ball as some other QBs I've seen recently, but he takes a lot of chances with his body that makes me nervous. 


However, WVU had a seriously Oline Depth shortage near the end of last year... This guy played hurt the last few games, which shocked me when I heard.  That's the kind of toughness we need at QB, frankly.  I just don't think we wait till 2nd Rd to draft QB if we draft QB high this year.

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13 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Lol, then you got me beat.  😀   I don't want Jones in the first round but if for some reasons he falls and they take a flier on him in the 2nd -- I wouldn't like it but wouldn't hate it. 

 

I am just on the hate it in the first round drill for Jones and my gut is he either ends up a bust at worst or at best a marginal starter as a WCO QB with a short quick game.  As for Grier, I liked him in the games I've watched him but haven't studied him and am not pounding the table for him -- and as I've said some people I respect like Jon Ledyard (who seems to match my view about more prospects than anyone) doesn't care for Grier so that gives me pause.  He doesn't care for Jones either so I agree with him there. 

 

I think some of my opinions about players until I dive in is predicated on the games I happened to watch.  And there is definitely some random aspect of that because if you happen to watch a good game or bad game it can over-inflate or under-inflate an opinion.  

 

My take right now.

 

A. Wouldn't hate trading up some for Haskins or Murray -- but would probably hate trading up big to get either one.

B.  Would hate Jones at #15

C.  Would like lock at 15 but I admit I have to dive into him more to form an opinion

D.  I wouldn't like drafting ANY QB in round 2 but wouldn't hate it if they took one

E.  Prefer they take someone in the third or later and am not so picky as to whom since I am not convinced any of them have "it"

 

Well, the prospect you’re critical of requires a far more discerning eye, there is a far greater risk of your position being proven wrong, which makes it a bolder position. People mock Jones as high as 5, Grier is found in round 2 in the most bullish of scenarios. There is literally nothing Grier offers an NFL team, he’s as ordinary a prospect as has ever existed, Jones is not in that category, obviously.

 

There is zero chance Will Grier is a good player in the NFL. Not any. I’d go less than zero if able. None. He doesn’t have a single attribute that can’t be found in 5,000 other QBs. He’s not a backup, he’s grotesque...as an nfl prospect. He’s just a pick thrown into the toilet.

 

I suppose I’ve made my point. Enough Grier for me. I need to get changed.

 

QKkU.gif

 

 

 

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12 minutes ago, volsmet said:

 

Well, the prospect you’re critical of requires a far more discerning eye, there is a far greater risk of your position being proven wrong, which makes it a bolder position.

 

 

 

Yeah I definitely could be wrong.  And some analysts that I respect like Brugler really likes Jones.

 

My issues with Jones is that from my own layman's point of view he doesn't meet ANY of my check lists.  None.

 

Arm strength.  Nope

Accuracy-Completion %.  Nope.  

YPA which am learning can be very relevant.  Nope.

Leadership.  Nope. 

 

Take a look at Kyler for example, the dude has a rocket of an arm and is accurate.  He fits every measure  except for his physique.  The thing I keep hearing about Daniel Jones is hey he's a big dude, and runs well for a big dude and has the perfect QB coach.  I like Cutcliffe but he's no magician -- same dude who coached Heath Shuler.  Yes, great job with the Mannings but who else?   I am sure he's a great QB coach but my point is he's not exactly making lemonade out of lemons in his career and the talent of the player is clearly a variable. 

 

Maybe I am missing something but the sell on Daniel Jones seems to be a narrative versus his actual play.  Some like to say he's really accurate but I think that's just an assumption based on his profile.  His completion % isn't hot at all and that's to boot in an offense which is about the short game.  And as I've shown in two different posts, Jones' accuracy stinks after 10 yards.  And heck maybe i am missing something but I am not the only dude making points like this so am not on an island about this either.

 

And i don't even get the pro ready stuff since according to some who charted him he's been in a one read guy-quick game offense who has taken EVERY pass from the shot gun.

 

Edited by Skinsinparadise
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https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/pro-quarterbacks-to-target-in-the-2019-nfl-draft-and-free-agency-period

THE DRAFT

Dwayne Haskins

The top quarterback on most people’s board, Haskins ticks a lot of boxes that NFL evaluators love to see ticked. He has the size (6-3, 220), production (4,831 yards, 50 TD’s), and a slingshot for an arm. By the same token, he had a good deal of ‘phony’ production; 664 of his passing yards and six of his touchdowns came on screens, both the most of any Power-5 quarterback (and 180 more yards than any of the other quarterbacks on this list). He also had a scintillating group of playmakers at OSU that aided his totals. Only 41.7 percent of his throws were targeted past the sticks compared to 55.2 for Murray and 44.8 for Lock. Haskins’ 84.9 passing grade this past season suggests he’s still far from a perfect prospect at the position.

Dwayne-1024x576.png

Kyler Murray

Murray does not by any means tick the same boxes that Haskins does. That being said, Murray ticks other boxes that are growing more and more valuable in today’s NFL. The most valuable thing he does though is throw the ball accurately. Murray had the second-best adjusted completion percentage in the Power-5 this season despite having an average depth of target of 12.1 yards downfield. For comparison, Gardner Minshew II led the Power-5, and his average depth of target was 6.6 yards. Add in Murray’s running ability and there’s a proven track record that quarterbacks like him can have success in the NFL. Yes, he’s 5-10. Yes, he’s only had one season of production against soft defenses. But the pros outweigh the cons at this point.

Murray-1024x576.png

Drew Lock

All three of these quarterbacks offer a trump card of sorts that could see one team falling in love with. For Lock, it’s his arm talent. He can put it accurately with pace to all levels of the defense. It’s part of the reason he led the NCAA in big-time throws this past season and was also the most accurate quarterback against air in the Senior Bowl practices. His footwork, pocket presence, and consistency is what’s a work in progress at this point.

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54 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Yeah I definitely could be wrong.  And some analysts that I respect like Brugler really likes Jones.

 

My issues with Jones is that from my own layman's point of view he doesn't meet ANY of my check lists.  None.

 

Arm strength.  Nope

Accuracy-Completion %.  Nope.  

YPA which am learning can be very relevant.  Nope.

Leadership.  Nope. 

 

 

 

 

You're no more layman than the guys you reference. If my life was on the line, I’m not putting more stock in those goofballs than you, they sell the idea of knowledge & a discerning eye with bull****, like all good salesmen. You’re great at this, I’ll go with you over the experts.

 

 

20 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

 

 

 

Trade up. Trade everything.

Edited by volsmet
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On 2/13/2019 at 10:07 AM, skinny21 said:

I can see the logic to this (not that I necessarily agree with it), but taking a stance of “let’s see what the next two years bring”, especially considering fan apathy, seems... surprising on their part.  

 

Of course, maybe they look at it as a chance to improve the rest of the roster and taking a developmental qb they really like (Rypien, etc.) who has a chance to show something the next year or 2.  Or they get a feel for Smith’s progress before considering a top qb next year.  So I don’t hate the idea, as long as they’re open to a 1st rounder in 2020.  Honestly, even if Smith is healed, we should probably be taking a qb next year, especially if we’re picking early.  

I am personally for the extended nuclear option (not only cut Smith, but trade/cut everybody who’s been hurt the last 2 years, fire all the coaches and FO folks, and essentially pretend we are an expansion team in 2020.)

 

But since that’s not what’s going to happen, unless there is a QB they LOVE, I would ride out 2019 and evaluate the Smith situation in 2020. If he wants to try a comeback, then I think you have to let him because you’ve already wasted 2019 waiting around.  If he doesn’t, then you pick a QB. 

 

The more I think about it, the more I think they SHOULDNT pick a QB until they know the outcome of the Smith situation. If they’re going to ride this year out, then you gotta see how that movie ends...

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2 hours ago, volsmet said:

 

You're no more layman than the guys you reference. If my life was on the line, I’m not putting more stock in those goofballs than you, they sell the idea of knowledge & a discerning eye with bull****, like all good salesmen. You’re great at this, I’ll go with you over the experts.

 

 

 

Trade up. Trade everything.

I assume Murray is referring to Oklahoma State 

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2 hours ago, volsmet said:

 

You're no more layman than the guys you reference. If my life was on the line, I’m not putting more stock in those goofballs than you, they sell the idea of knowledge & a discerning eye with bull****, like all good salesman. You’re great at this, I’ll go with you over the experts.

 

 

 

Thanks.   But obviously some do this for a living an understand X's and O's at a level that I don't to say the least.  But its fun to give a stab at it for kicks.  I admit my take on QBs is heavily influenced right now by Bruce Arian's book about QBs and goes into major detail.

 

His main points were:

 

A. You can't teach a QB how to throw with accuracy and anticipation -- either you got it or you don't.  And its the key characteristic to be a good QB.

B. Accuracy isn't one size fits all.  He wants QBs who are accurate all across the field -- short, intermediate, deep.  He doesn't care for one trick ponies as for accuracy especially if its a QB who just thrives on the short game.

C.  Accuracy is somewhat driven by consistency of arm motion and footwork

D.  The ability to process information quickly -- protections, knowing the hot read, reading coverages, etc mean everything.  If you aren't good at that, you won't be a good QB. 

E.  If you don't work hard at your craft and study like mad during the week leading up to games -- you won't be good no matter how talented you might be. 

F. He'd much rather have a leader and a dude who is an extrovert as his QB than an introvert.  There are exceptions where quiet introverts succeed at the position but extroverts rule.  And he's seen in locker rooms how the right personality can transform a team and make them believe.  

G. He likes arm strength and athleticism but its a bonus for him -- not the be all and end all.  And if you have a QB who works hard, is accurate, throws with anticipation, processes information quick AND is athletic -- then you got someone who is special. 

H.  He wants a QB who is tough and has grit.

 

Specific to judging college QBs (some of this is my extrapolating from his points)

A.  If he sees college QB struggle too much with easy throws, he's rules them out versus thinking he's going to fix it.  

B.  He'd want to test the QBs ability to process information quickly

C.  Looking for accuracy-anticipation -- ability to throw in rhythm above anything

D.  If the Qb isn't playing in an NFL style offense and or against NFL style defenses where he has to run through progressions, etc -- he'd want to test their ability to adjust to this change. 

 

Some hot college prospects fail in the pros often for these reasons (some of this is me extrapolating from his points)

A.  Scouts get infatuated with the arm talent versus the mental makeup and work ethic of said prospect.

B.  Scouts get infatuated about arm strength and athleticism over accuracy and the ability to throw with anticipation 

C.  In terms of testing mental makeup, you got to test their speed at reading and reacting to defenses not just their ability to do it.  The speed of their processing means everything.  Most QBs if you get them in a QB room and give them time to dissect a defense and coverage can do it.  But the question isn't whether they can do it but whether they can do it in a split 3 second.

 

The studying habits of a QB are so critical because understanding the protections and defenses isn't a static thing but it changes from week to week.  And it comes upon you so fast that you can't wing it.  You have to have it rehearsed so well in your head, that you can react to it in a split second when you see it.  And if your accuracy is hot and cold depending on the depth of your throws than smart defensive coordinators are going to figure out how to exploit that.  So you want a QB who can read a defense quickly and exploit it by having the ability to make accurate throws all around the field.

 

Edited by Skinsinparadise
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19 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Thanks.   But obviously some do this for a living an understand X's and O's at a level that I don't.  But its fun to give a stab at it.  I admit my take on QBs is heavily influenced right now by Bruce Arian's book about QBs and goes into major detail.

 

His main points were:

 

 

 

In your opinion, what do the X’s and O’s have to do with your QB evaluations vs those of the experts. They know jack. What QB evaluation, of the experts, have you been impressed by after the fact? Which guy had Mahomes as their top player in the draft? Their evaluations have, literally, nothing to do with anything yours don’t aside from having stood next to them....and you’ve seen a couple in person yourself. I know plenty of goobers who do this, dressing up evolutions with bs is their gift, making you think their Xs and Os mean anything is why they have followers. It’s entertainment. They stink, they’re all Will Grier’s, you’re Kyler. These aren’t tough jobs to get...and they all hedge on 99% of their prognostications. 

 

Give me SIP.

tenor.gif

 

19 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Thanks.   But obviously some do this for a living an understand X's and O's at a level that I don't.  But its fun to give a stab at it.  I admit my take on QBs is heavily influenced right now by Bruce Arian's book about QBs and goes into major detail.

 

His main points were:

 

A. You can't teach a QB how to throw with accuracy and anticipation -- either you got it or you don't.  And its the key characteristic to be a good QB.

B. Accuracy isn't one size fits all.  He wants QBs who are accurate all across the field -- short, intermediate, deep.  He doesn't care for one trick ponies as for accuracy especially if its a QB who just thrives on the short game.

C.  Accuracy is somewhat driven by consistency of arm motion and footwork

D.  The ability to process information quickly -- protections, knowing the hot read, reading coverages, etc mean everything.  If you aren't good at that, you won't be a good QB. 

E.  If you don't work hard at your craft and study like mad during the week leading up to games -- you won't be good no matter how talented you might be. 

F. He'd much rather have a leader and a dude who is an extrovert as his QB than an introvert.  There are exceptions where quiet introverts succeed at the position but extroverts rule.  And he's seen in locker rooms how the right personality can transform a team and make them believe.  

G. He likes arm strength and athleticism but its a bonus for him -- not the be all and end all.  And if you have a QB who works hard, is accurate, throws with anticipation, processes information quick AND is athletic -- then you got someone who is special. 

H.  He wants a QB who is tough and has grit.

 

Specific to judging college QBs (some of this is my extrapolating from his points)

A.  If he sees college QB struggle too much with easy throws, he's rules them out versus thinking he's going to fix it.  

B.  He'd want to test the QBs ability to process information quickly

C.  Looking for accuracy-anticipation -- ability to throw in rhythm above anything

D.  If the Qb isn't playing in an NFL style offense or against an NFL style defense where he has to run through progressions, etc -- he'd want to test their ability to adjust to this change. 

 

Some hot college prospects fail in the pros often for these reasons (some of this is me extrapolating from his points)

A.  Scouts get infatuated with the arm talent versus the mental makeup and work ethic of said prospect.

B.  Scouts get infatuated about arm strength and athleticism over accuracy and the ability to throw with anticipation 

C.  In terms of testing mental makeup, you got to test their speed at reading and reacting to defenses not just their ability to do it.  The speed of their processing means everything.  Most QBs if you get them in a QB room and give them time to dissect a defense and coverage can do it.  But the question isn't whether they can do it but whether they can do it in a split 3 second.

 

The studying habits of a QB are so critical because understanding the protections and defenses change from week to week.  And it comes upon you so fast that you can't wing it.  You have to have it rehearsed so well in your head, that you can react to it in a split second when you see it.  And if your accuracy is hot and cold depending on the depth of your throws than smart defensive coordinators are going to figure out how to exploit that.  So you want a QB who can read a defense quickly and exploit it by having the ability to make accurate throws all around the field.

 

 

What is in there that you think is especially nuanced?

 

 

-I don’t mean to be so harsh on them, but a few of you guys do an extraordinary job of looking into everything that matters. I’m not joking, I know plenty of these people, I’ll take the ES guys without a 2nd thought. 

Edited by volsmet
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I’m sure most here have seen people debate politics & reference some obscure quote or leader from the 1400s & suddenly you believe this guy isn’t completely fos. Distraction is the art of sales, decorate your nonsense with things most don’t understand ....and they won’t understand you’re full of it. Memorize some bit of history from the Roman Empire, quote the Bible, and...well, how could you argue. 

 

Xs & Os, in scouting, rarely mean much outside of the line, in which case they mean a great deal. But, it’s also Extraordinarily simple to pick up if you want, but people are busy & hear “2 gap” and think, damn, this guy knows football. 

 

Team ES is strong. 

 

Sip, pictured below:

braveheart-gif-4.gif

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It's funny to me how much Haskins has dropped out of conversation when Murray and Haskins are likely to go in the same draft range. Haskins' stats were similarly superlative. He has ideal size, a bigger arm, played against tougher competition, and, in a pro-style offense. After watching Tua lay eggs against Georgia and Clemson, I might take Haskins over Tua. And, I would definitely take him over Fromm. 

 

I honestly worry that Murray is just too small. I know Murray is accurate and has a solid arm. I know that Oklahoma has a big OL. I just think there is a reason that no QB his size has ever been successful in the NFL. Ever. I don't think the size issue is overstated. I think it is understated. Tons of fans and pundits are enthusiastically giving Murray the benefit of the doubt, but there is absolutely NO HISTORICAL PRECEDENT for a QB Murray's size. None. Ever.  If we were talking about taking a first round OT smaller than any OT to ever start in the league, it would also give me pause. I don't care how good your feet and power are. OT's need bulk and length for a reason.


Also, I am not reassured by Murray's performance against Alabama. If he is talented enough to overcome his size deficit in the NFL, why did he look so average when given the chance to shine against an NFL quality defense? Alabama isn't insurmountable. Deshaun Watson and Trevor Lawrence both have looked great against Alabama. And Murray had a very good surrounding cast. He had a solid OL and possible top 20 picks both on the OL and at WR. 

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2 minutes ago, volsmet said:

 

In your opinion, what do the X’s and O’s have to do with your QB evaluations vs those of the experts. They know jack. What QB evaluation, of the experts, have you been impressed by after the fact? Which guy had Mahomes as their top player in the draft? Their evaluations have, literally, nothing to do with anything yours don’t aside from having stood next to them....and you’ve seen a couple in person yourself. I know plenty of goobers who do this, dressing up evolutions with bs is their gift, making you think their Xs and Os mean anything is why they have followers. It’s entertainment. They stink, they’re all Will Grier’s, you’re Kyler. These aren’t tough jobs to get...and they all hedge on 99% of their prognostications. 

 

Give me SIP.

tenor.gif

 

 

Appreciate the complement.  And my point isn't about the Kiper types.   I do think one advantage those types have is most of them can pick the brains of scouts.  I am learning a lot of these mock drafts are driven by scuttlebutt these guys hear from sources around the league.  But the top personnel guys I think really know their stuff.  I recall the one time I was in front of Scot, I threw a bunch of college players at him and he had answers about all of them most of whom he scouted in person.   And this was in November months before the draft. 

 

Running with Bruce Arian's take for example.  And i've for a long time liked and respected the dude.   He'd go that it's really hard to judge college QBs without interviewing and testing them in person unless you can see on tape they are really special.   I got no idea for example what the Redskins typical protections are for a fire zone blitz that's attacking the weak side for example and what would the hot read be on and on.  So if Jay lets says has Will Grier in his room, he can run some plays on the screen and ask him what would he do against this or that pressure.  Or run some plays by him and see what he recalls.  Or just see if he came to the combine prepared with having a working knowledge of his offense, etc. 

 

I think that's part of the reason why many say that the key variable for QBs at the combine aren't any of the physical tests but the interviews. 

 

Also, I think I have to get to watching multiple games.  What sold me hard on Guice a year ago was by chance I watched a lot of LSU and just became infatuated by the dude.  And because I was paying extra attention to him, I could see some of the intangibles too including at times noticing that he was bouncing around the sidelines with energy and interacting with his teammates.  You can see that he wasn't just a stud RB but a feisty guy with a ton of personality.   I talked about it on this thread well before it became cool and in vogue later on after we drafted him where people saw his personality.  And the fact that I noticed it before many did wasn't because i am so smart but because I just happened to be watching it in real time unfold.  So it was coincidence.  But what I was doing there, scouts are doing for everyone game to game.  I am not spending that kind of time on every player.  And sometimes listening to personnel guys talk like Scot, I learn about some nuances that would never even cross my mind if I didn't hear their take. 

 

As an example, rehashing my Arian's rap is now compelling me to take a closer look at Lock.  Because Lock has some traits that Arians would like but also perhaps wouldn't like.  I've seen Lock criticized at being inconsistent as for accuracy and missing too many easy throws.  If so, that would be a red flag to Arians.  So it has me intrigued to watch Lock and judge for myself.  On really every QB in this draft, I've watched most play in real time and haven't re-watched them, yet.  And I accede my take might be biased because for most them I haven't watched a lot of their games -- its typically 1-3 games so if I happened to watch the right or wrong game its likely skewing my take.  I've watched most of Kyler so i am most confident in him.  Ditto Tua but he's not out in this draft.  I've ironically rewatched only some Daniel Jones. 😀

 

 

9 minutes ago, Anselmheifer said:

It's funny to me how much Haskins has dropped out of conversation when Murray and Haskins are likely to go in the same draft range. Haskins' stats were similarly superlative. He has ideal size, a bigger arm, played against tougher competition, and, in a pro-style offense. After watching Tua lay eggs against Georgia and Clemson, I might take Haskins over Tua. And, I would definitely take him over Fromm. 

 

I was just reading the NY Daily New, Giants Q & A.  I read their papers every now and then and the reporters there are typically plugged into the Giants perspective. I recall last time most of their reporters were saying they will skip QB and go Barkley -- even when some national reporters were suggesting otherwise. 

 

https://www.nydailynews.com/sports/football/giants/ny-sports-giants-mailbag-beckham-20190214-story.html

Question from @pjays13: “Are the Giants really serious about drafting Haskins?”

They’re serious about scouting him - and all quarterbacks - in this draft, but I don’t know yet if they’re serious about drafting Haskins. I continue to believe that if Manning is coming back, Gettleman and Shurmur (and Manning) would prefer to use the No. 6 overall pick on a player who can help the team win now. A Beckham trade to Oakland makes sense in this plan because if the Giants could get the Raiders’ 24th pick in a package, for example, they could draft a pass rusher or O-lineman at six and still get a QB they like in the late first-round. If John Mara stresses to Gettleman that he wants Haskins as a Manning heir, perhaps then the Giants GM drafts the Ohio State QB at No. 6 if he’s on the board. But if Mara leaves it to Gettleman, I continue to believe he’s using that pick on a different position.

 

Question from @William26969984: “Do you think that the Giants draft Haskins at six or trade up to get him?”

If the Giants are all-in on Haskins, I could see Gettleman trading up for the first time in his history as a GM. In fact, he probably would have to trade up to get Haskins, given the hysteria now building around Haskins and the many teams looking for a franchise QB this year, including Jacksonville, Miami and Washington. To me it’s all or nothing. Either they decide Haskins is a can’t-miss prospect and they do whatever it takes to get him, or they aren’t 100 percent confident in him and they go another direction. Never forget this, though: Gettleman constantly says he always takes the best player available when he’s on the clock. And while the Giants need to find Manning’s successor, there aren’t many people who believe Haskins is even close to the sixth-best player in this class, though he’s certainly worthy of a first rounder.

 
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