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Evaluating Jay Gruden in 2018

Voice_of_Reason

By Voice_of_Reason
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Voice_of_Reason

Voice_of_Reason

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3 hours ago, Renegade7 said:

Or "I'm Done Evaluating Jay" thread

I just can’t believe the one guy who took me up on the 10 year he’ll never win 10 games bet has flipped so far that probably in my camp. 

 

 

I feel like there will be more people with my point of view on Jay going into next season. 

 

Seriously, I would encourage all season ticket holders to cancel seaso tickets with a letter saying the reason is Bruce and Jay.  Would be willing to start season tickets again when they are gone...

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Renegade7

Renegade7

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1 hour ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

I just can’t believe the one guy who took me up on the 10 year he’ll never win 10 games bet has flipped so far that probably in my camp. 

 

Never said he was HoF, I'm jus consistent with my stance on what's best for the franchise not any single individual, not even me.

 

You probably dont remember how hard I turned on Griffin after the 2014 Tampa game, I do IT for a living so i troubleshoot and cut rope for a living.  Having said that, hes still in the league (which I was wrong on), and if Jay gets a second chance, it's still possible, we've seen guys learn from their mistakes once someone forces them out, not unheard of.

 

Tell you what, I still enjoy having these conversations and can tell when people are more concerned with being right then what's right.  I've had an account here posting for nearly half my life, seen plenty bammas come and go, it's nothing new.

 

Edit:  I'll make this clear, the question isnt can he figure it out, the question is what will happen to our franchise in the meantime.  That's what really flipped me,  not jus the loses but the empty seats.  Thata a different level if dangerous.

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Voice_of_Reason

Voice_of_Reason

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Well, it appears as though the reporting is Jay will be back.

 

Since that seems to be inevitable, here are the changes Jay should consider in the off season:

 

1. He HAS to find a better defensive coordinator.  I don't love him being allowed to select his 4th DC.  But he's got to figure that out.  Over-spend for the best guy on the market.  Rex Ryan, Bowles, whoever.  Just go out and get a real honest to God defensive stud because the defense is going to have to carry the team next season.

 

2. Go have an exorcism and get over the infatuation with Colt McCoy.  Smith won't be back, at least not to begin the season.  Colt is not going to be able to be a competent QB for 16 games.  It's time to move on and either pencil in JJ or go find somebody else.  McCoy should not, cannot be the interim solution. 

 

3. Complete and total change to approach to practice.  No more camp Jay.  Hard, up-tempo practices every day.  That doesn't mean tons of hitting, just much more up-tempo and intense. 

 

4. New training staff.  I don't know if they're really at fault for the injuries, but enough is enough.  New training program, new trainers, new everything. 

 

5.  A new offensive play caller.  Cavanaugh has to go because he's pointless.  Either turn play calling over to O'Connell, or hire an outside OC who will call plays.  Jay is terrible at it, and it distracts him from the rest of the game.

 

If he follows these pieces of advice, he might migrate from "meh" to "maybe we've got something here." 

 

My guess:  absolutely no changes except for some folks leaving.  Cavanaugh and Callahan might leave, I am guessing they "promote" O'Connell to OC, but Jay keeps play calling. No changes of note on the training or defensive staffs.

 

And 6-10, here we come withe the excuses of bad QB play, more injuries, and the lack of money for FA. Which of course leads to a shiny new high-draft pick QB leading into 2020, and you have to give Gruden 2 years with said new QB.

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TheShredder

TheShredder

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19 minutes ago, Rdskns2000 said:

Other than an assistant coach

 Or two, there will be little change.

 

Todd Bowles gets fired from NY Jets, Redskins need to jump on him like a drunk prom date!  Let Bowles create a defense that will stay top 10 for the next years to come.

 

Remember he was a long time Redskins Safety and won a Super Bowl with Gibbs.  He's a defensive mind and would be favorite of D.Williams and both Dumb and Dumber (Allen and Snyder). 

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Burgold

Burgold

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On 4/4/2018 at 7:22 PM, Burgold said:

I presently look at Jay Gruden as the Washington Redskins version of Bruce Boudreau. Boudreau took an awful Caps time and lifted them to pretty good status. Then, he hit his ceiling. The team needed to decide if they were satisfied with okay or if they would roll the dice to try to risk greatness. The Caps decided to roll the dice, but really haven't done much better. Likewise, I think Jay Gruden has managed to wright a sinking ship and making it sail worthy. In none of his expeditions has he made a profit. 8-7-1 may technically be above .500, but let's be real. It's a like getting a sixteenth place ribbon at your kids' swim meet. It means nothing.

 

The question with Jay is can he ever do better than okay? Can he clean up the blunders? Can he coach an opening game or a game off a buy without the team playing clueless and flat? Can he reduce the dumb penalties? Can he run the damn ball or at least call a diversified running attack? But, ultimately the big question is... Can he be a winner and how do Redskins' fans define that? 

 

Is 9-7 with a one and done considered a winner? Is 8-7-1? Is 7-9 with more injuries than you have players on a starting roster?

 

For me, I want to see at minimum a playoff win. That said, I see the team as constituted and coached having a range of 5-9 wins. I'd love to be surprised and have one of those everything breaks our way seasons where we grab 10. I'd hate it if we get another stinker where we go 5 or below. Regardless, I don't see Jay meeting my playoff win criteria this year. I think integrating a new QB, a new running back, is tough and we're leaning on a D that before the injuries surprised, but never was great. 

 

So, what would make me happy in 2018? What would make me grade out Jay Gruden as a keeper? I think we need a strong start and a strong end. Under the Kirk years, we struggled with both. If Gruden can prove that wasn't him and he has the wherewithal to rocket out of the gates and not choke during the stretch run of games, I'll be okay with him.

 

Also, I need him to be much closer to nine wins than five.

Okay, grading Gruden on the criteria I set out last April.

 

Can he clean up the blunders?

-No, the team led the league in several categories of penalties. Yes, we get reffed a bunch too, but we were sloppy and undisciplined.

 

Can he win an opening game of the season?

-Yes!

 

Can he win a game off the bye?

-Not even close. Came out flat, unprepared, and thoroughly embarrassed by the Saints.

 

Can he run the ball or at least call a diversified running attack?

-Maybe. Let's call this a C. Bare passing grade. We did run the ball with Alex Smith. The moment Smith got hurt we stopped running. Gruden thought he could revert to the Kirk Cousins ratio with Colt, Sanchez, and Johnson. I have come to believe that Smith checked out of a whole lot of passes and converted them to runs and that proved successful even though the runs often netted only two yards.

 

Can he deliver a strong start and a strong end?

-No. We uglied our way to wins at the start and were just plain ugly at the end.

 

Is he closer to 9 wins than 5?

-Dead center, but I think if we gave this team another eight games we probably still wouldn't make it to 9. Half credit.

 

Did we win a playoff game?

Sigh.

 

Can he be a winner?

- No. By definition 7-9 and falling from 6-3 to 7-9 ain't winning.

 

 

Ultimately on the criteria I set forth in April, Jay earned 2/8. That's a failing grade. That's a big time fail.

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Est.1974

Est.1974

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Gruden seems to have become more deluded as the year has passed. Maybe he's just become immune to it all / or he's playing it smarter than we think knowing he's about to get canned. Self preservation and all that.

 

Some of it, well, words fail me. 

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Peregrine

Peregrine

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11 minutes ago, UK SKINS FAN '74 said:

Gruden seems to have become more deluded as the year has passed. Maybe he's just become immune to it all / or he's playing it smarter than we think knowing he's about to get canned. Self preservation and all that.

 

Some of it, well, words fail me. 

I think hes quit and he doesnt care anymore, and is hoping he gets canned.  It just sounds like hes run out of excuses to give the media, and he may have believed them in years past, hes realized he cant figure out whats wrong and thats depressing for him.  

 

If theres one thing Jay has always appeared to be, its a quitter.  How many times have we seen the Redskins go down by a score late in the game and Jay looks like he cant believe it and hes already thrown in the towel.

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profusion

profusion

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Jay is a less-talented Norv Turner. Skilled as a coordinator, but ultimately not the "right stuff" as a HC.

 

The only thing he's got going for him right now is that I don't see anyone else out there who's available and strikes me as a huge upgrade. Anyway, it's fruitless to expect better results from this front office. I wouldn't trust them to hire a new coach. Might as well keep Jay if Bruce is going to stick around.

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skinny21

skinny21

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2 hours ago, Burgold said:

Okay, grading Gruden on the criteria I set out last April.

This is one of the things I hate the most about the injuries - they clearly make it harder to judge Gruden.  So several points below I drag out the “injury excuse”.  I know this drives some people nuts.  Forget Gruden’s involvement with the injuries, you can clearly see a drop off once the olinemen (and Smith) went down.  I’m not saying the injuries absolve him from other issues - defensive failures, coaching blunders, the team struggling in “big” games, etc.  

Quote

 

Can he clean up the blunders?

-No, the team led the league in several categories of penalties. Yes, we get reffed a bunch too, but we were sloppy and undisciplined.

This one bugs me.  One of a few different reasons I’m souring on Gruden.  Playing Devil’s Advocate, 1) injuries can play a role here - false starts and delay of games can start with the qb - and 2) Gruden’s in a tough spot with a highly penalized guy like Moses. 

Quote

 

Can he win an opening game of the season?

-Yes!

 

Can he win a game off the bye?

-Not even close. Came out flat, unprepared, and thoroughly embarrassed by the Saints.

 

Can he run the ball or at least call a diversified running attack?

-Maybe. Let's call this a C. Bare passing grade. We did run the ball with Alex Smith. The moment Smith got hurt we stopped running. Gruden thought he could revert to the Kirk Cousins ratio with Colt, Sanchez, and Johnson. I have come to believe that Smith checked out of a whole lot of passes and converted them to runs and that proved successful even though the runs often netted only two yards.

Ok, I’m confused on this one.  You seem to be suggesting he didn’t run as much as he should have, which goes against the grain (to put it mildly, lol).  Separately, you talk about diversity.  My only comment here is we heard mention of a(nother team’s) defensive player commenting to one of our offensive players how many different things we do in the run game.  

 

Our ground game (outside of the Titans game) was far less effective after we lost Lauvao, Scherff and Smith.  The one game it was effective, he ran the ball like crazy.  Multiple games (after the oline injuries), we fell behind in a hurry and so didn’t run as much.  

In effect, this is one area I’m not going to ding Gruden for.  In fact, I might argue that the diversity of our run scheme made it harder to slide oline replacements in.  I actually think a change/simplification of the run scheme is part of why we were more successful vs Tennessee.  

Quote

 

Can he deliver a strong start and a strong end?

-No. We uglied our way to wins at the start and were just plain ugly at the end.

It was a strong start, but yeah... ugly.  Finish was poor, but... injuries.  

Quote

 

Is he closer to 9 wins than 5?

-Dead center, but I think if we gave this team another eight games we probably still wouldn't make it to 9. Half credit.

With the year end squad?  Yeah, we’d probably win 1 of nine and not reach 9 wins (after playing 25).  :(

With a healthier squad, I’d assume differently.  

 

Quote

 

Did we win a playoff game?

Sigh.

 

Can he be a winner?

- No. By definition 7-9 and falling from 6-3 to 7-9 ain't winning.

Again, with better health, yes, I’d expect we would have reached 9+ wins.  

Quote

 

 

Ultimately on the criteria I set forth in April, Jay earned 2/8. That's a failing grade. That's a big time fail.

Lesser injuries and he’s probably 5 or 6 out of 8.  

 

 

Anyway, I believe Gruden would have more success here if our injuries were not so drastic.  I believe the FO could have made better choices in personnel to help Gruden.  I believe his playcalling would have looked better with better personnel executing the calls.  On top of that, the reports that Gruden is (sometimes?) told who to play - which meshes with reports of Allen’s ego - are quite concerning.  

 

With all of that said, there are a myriad of negative things that have stood out.  Meltdowns in big games, lack of preparation after byes, lax practices, stubbornness (and predictability) in play calling, etc. 

 

One other point... we’ve talked about how his personality might actually be helpful considering our FO problems - he’s maybe better equipped to handle the dysfunction.  I’m imagining a hard-ass coach coming in and players saying wait, we’ve got a poor FO, HS level facilities, etc, and you’re going to make my life miserable by running brutal practices and (perhaps) screaming and yelling at everyone?  Not worth it.  

 

The flip side of this though is that a hard-ass coach might hold the FO accountable.  They might hold players more accountable.  They could change the preparation level and the culture.  These changes, in turn, could improve our injury situation, improve our roster, and perhaps shine a light on the dysfunction (for Snyder anyway... I don’t think fans need to be convinced, lol).  

 

I’ve been in Gruden’s camp for the above reasons.  I’m at the point now however that I think a change should be made. At minimum a different FO that can decide Gruden’s fate.  I appreciate Gruden lifting us to (roughly) average, particularly considering the circumstances, but we need a coach that demands more - of the players and the FO.  Until Allen is gone though, I have trouble seeing such a coach being hired.  

 

Sigh.  

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Voice_of_Reason

Voice_of_Reason

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3 hours ago, Burgold said:

Can he run the ball or at least call a diversified running attack?

-Maybe. Let's call this a C. Bare passing grade. We did run the ball with Alex Smith. The moment Smith got hurt we stopped running. Gruden thought he could revert to the Kirk Cousins ratio with Colt, Sanchez, and Johnson. I have come to believe that Smith checked out of a whole lot of passes and converted them to runs and that proved successful even though the runs often netted only two yards.

Here's the thing about the 'Skins running game:  It was ok in spurts when they could do what they do, and AP made 3 guys in the backfield miss and got positive yards.  I give Gruden and the coaches involvement in the running game a solid F-.  It was poorly schemed, poorly called, poorly coached, didn't relate to the passing game, and was in all ways horrendous. 


The reason AP got to 1000 yards is that he's a future HOFer and bailed out a misserable scheme and coaching.

 

I give the following examples as to how attrocious the coaching was for the running game:

 

1. I'm going to actually go back and crunch numbers on this, but we ran on something like 65% of first downs, maybe more.  The average is something like 2 yards per carry, and the 'Skins led the league with negative plays on first down, and if I'm not mistaken, by quite a margin.

 

2. Gruden, if anything, ran TOO much on first down making it predictable, forcing AP to run into a brick wall which knew what was coming.

 

3. I pointed this out in the game day thread: if you have watched ANY 'Skins games, you can call the play before the snap.  When they go 2 TE, 2 WR 1RB on first down, then they load to one side, it's a run to that side.  If they motion a TE, the run is going in that direction 100% of the time.  It's so predictable a fan on a couch can pick up the tendency.

 

4.  In the game where Ty started at LG, and that new guy started at RG, who are both HUGE dudes who don't really move real well, we kept having them try to pull.  Why?  Because that's what we do, damn the personnel.

 

5. When that practice squad guy had to go in last week for his first NFL snap, it was 3rd and 1, and we tried to have him pull also.  Great idea.  Why?  Because that's what we do. 

 

6. We continued to try and run AP out of gun, even though he prefers to run out of the I. Why?  Because that's what we do.  Gruden even said multiple times "we're trying to get AP comfortable doing things differently."  Why?  Why?  Why?  Why not adapt to what your players do well?  Because Adapt is not something Gruden EVER does. 

 

Look at what Harbaugh did just 45 miles north of us when Flaco went down.  He changed the entire offense to suite the new guy, and they won the division.  THAT'S coaching.  Gruden couldn't manage to be an offensive quality control assistant on the Raven's staff.

 

Doug Pederson changed the Eagles offense TWICE when Wentz went down to suit Foles.  They won the SB last year.  They are in the playoffs this year.  THAT'S coaching.

 

What Gruden does is not coaching.  It's reacting.  And reacting badly. 

 

Our run scheme sucks like the south end of a north bound skunk.  It's awful.  Gruden/Callahan/Cavanaugh have had 4-5 years to come up with something that works, and they've completely failed.

 

AP bailed them out a bit.  Absent having a future HOF running back with a chip on his shoulder, this season would have been a catastrophe from a running back perspective.

 

 

 

11 minutes ago, justice98 said:

I thought THIS year was a do or die year for Gruden, and under .500 and missing the playoffs would be a guaranteed firing.  Miraculously, that doesnt seem like the case. 

 

So what will it take?  

It's going to take a complete meltdown without the injury excuse.

 

OR it's going to take Bruce feeling that his job is on the line and he needs to fire Jay to scapegoat him for his inadequacies as President.  Last ditch effort, kinda like when Vinny hired the bingo-caller.

 

As long as there are excuses, he's going to be here.  Because "healthy, we can compete with anybody in the division."  And unfortunately, our idiot owner buys that crap because Jay makes him comfortable since he doesn't rock the boat, and let's Bruce do what he wants, and is a likable guy. 

 

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Poindexter

Poindexter

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15 minutes ago, justice98 said:

I thought THIS year was a do or die year for Gruden, and under .500 and missing the playoffs would be a guaranteed firing.  Miraculously, that doesnt seem like the case. 

 

So what will it take?  

Jay Gruden is a hard one to decide on......he's a talented coach and seems to get a little better each year.  I would not rush to fire him unless we could find a better solution.  Would not be surprised if Marvin Lewis and Hue Jackson come back to DC as coordinators.

 

I don't trust the Redskins to pick a competent coach.....I would stick with Jay and hope and pray he can find some good coordinators.

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