Evaluating Jay Gruden in 2018

[Skinsinparadise]

1 hour ago, OVCChairman said:

 

 

THIS year.. yeah could can correlate the two... but it's been this way since Gruden started coaching here.  He's got like a 4-17 record after a win, or something stupid like that.  We always have an emotional win followed by an absolute dud.  When the season is on the line against an inferior opponent, we dont show up.  We're literally 3 games away from saying Gruden has taken us to the playoffs in 3 / 4 seasons.  Games that were not against 'better' football teams.   Look at that last 3 years and how rare we string together multiple wins in a row

 

 

 

Over several regimes -- if you take out the occasional streak at the end of the seasons and the Zorn odd 4 game hot streak at the beginning of 2008.  Here are the Redskins after wins

 

2006 1-4

2007 1-4

2008 1-4

2009 0-4

2010 1-5

2011 1-4

2012 -0-3

2013  0-3

 

Stephen Smith, granted a buffoon, he has a culture term to paint the brush on some franchises.  For the Redskins its that they can't deal with prosperity.  He's been saying it before Jay got here.  I've been saying it before he got here.  It's an odd Redskins culture thing.  It didn't start with Jay.  If people want to blame Jay for not ending this trend -- I get that.  But I think we have short memories if we are pegging this as a Jay Gruden thing.  it's been a Redskins thing sadly for a long time.  We don't win games after winning the previous week with the exception of the rare winning streaks to end seasons and the early streak with Zorn.

[Skinsinparadise]

1 hour ago, skins island connection said:

 

I like AP; the guy has heart and wants to actually play and does have an impact on the game. He still has some burst if he gets past the first wave, but that's wherein lies the problem, I think.

Do you think the o-line / coaching is doing a good enough job of getting him past the first wave? This is hard for me to visualize, but I'm thinking it has to be either the o-line coach or the play calling, maybe the players. If AP can be`effective and become a problem for the LBers and secondary it opens up the passing game, but it seems that Gruden just hopes for the best without a lot of help in o-line progression.

 

There are obvious running plays just looking at the formation/players on the field; to me that just tips off what they are going to do, and it drives me nuts seeing it. Its like Gruden believes the o-line is so dominant, but I can't remember the last time they were in a jumbo type formation and had success.

 

I haven't slowed down the games on coaches tape and watched like I did last off season for the season that ended.  So I can answer better when I have time to do it.  But in concept the idea that Peterson who many thought were washed up last year is underachieving in Jay's offense seems wild to me. Before last week he's was 5th in the league in rushing.

 

the rest of my post not directed to you.  I get that to some it feels good to peg Jay as the core of the problem.  But if you listen to for example Cooley's film breakdown in his view they had a good game plan.  Cooley's description of that game was eerily similar to the vibe I got to his description of the Tampa game with RG3 in 2013 -- in that game Cooley said the offense just looked inept because of the QB. 

 

He said the same thing after watching this game -- guys were open, big plays and TDs were to be had.  Casserly in his interview after watching the tape said Jay is covering for his players specifically Alex.   And they both said LG was a problem well what a shocker -- they did a great job addressing that this off season.  ?

 

I don't buy that Alex is some world beater that Jay is limiting.  Alex has never been a guy who thrives without a running game.  Heck a KC reporter in the off season was on a radio show and said Alex pulling comebacks in games was a unicorn -- he did it one year twice and it was so shocking that they wrote an article about it.  With Alex you need a running game and a lead. 

 

If people want to say Jay isn't getting these guys ready, etc.  Who knows?  But if so thus far they have other issues aside from Jay.  And if Dan is gauging fan unrest and is poised to make a move -- I hate the idea of fans leaving the impression, hey get rid of Jay, that's the #1 problem, and then we will be happy.  To me the #1 problem is by a mile someone else. 

 

Having said all of that, Alex could bounce back this week.  Lets see what happens.  I like Jay but I don't live and die with him as the be all and end all coach,  I do know though I am not putting in the verdict after 4 games.  What if they go on a run?   Its early. 

[NoCalMike]

When people say the Redskins can't deal with prosperity, I think the actual question should be, do they even care about prosperity?  For the longest time, under Snyder's tenure, this franchise has been the place to go when you are looking to get paid, while performing less on the field.

 

I am sure that has not been the case with every single player at any given time,but it has been the overall culture.

 

Is it possible that the reason this team can never sustain any success is because the desire to be an actual winner isn't there for enough of the players?  Could that be why no one can ever get a bearing on what exactly this team is or can be?

[Skinsinparadise]

4 minutes ago, NoCalMike said:

When people say the Redskins can't deal with prosperity, I think the actual question should be, do they even care about prosperity?  For the longest time, under Snyder's tenure, this franchise has been the place to go when you are looking to get paid, while performing less on the field.

 

I am sure that has not been the case with every single player at any given time,but it has been the overall culture.

 

Is it possible that the reason this team can never sustain any success is because the desire to be an actual winner isn't there for enough of the players?  Could that be why no one can ever get a bearing on what exactly this team is or can be?

 

could be.  And I get it feels good to some to think hey they can't deal with prosperity thing is a Jay thing -- once he's gone that wild ride is over.   I've never even bothered to look up past records on that front until now but it didn't surprise me to see it was the same thing.  Reason why it was no surprise is because that's how it always felt to me and way before Jay.  It's a culture thing here. I've complained about it pre-Jay.  If people want to blame Jay for not fixing it -- OK.  But it definitely didn't start with him.  Stephen Smith loves to paint the Redskins with that brush and he's right to do it -- he's been doing it pre Jay. 

[Voice_of_Reason]

32 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Over several regimes -- if you take out the occasional streak at the end of the seasons and the Zorn odd 4 game hot streak at the beginning of 2008.  Here are the Redskins after wins

So what?  This is year 5 of Gruden and this should not be the trend now.

[Morneblade]

1 minute ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

So what?  This is year 5 of Gruden and this should not be the trend now.

 

I think the point was that it was not a trend that Jay started. Also you could make a point that this type of trend starts above Jay. But, it certainly has continued through Jay.

 

I think you can argue as well that Jay doesn't really help. I might have topped out at OC. I don't see him as a team leader in any way.

[OVCChairman]

34 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

 

Over several regimes -- if you take out the occasional streak at the end of the seasons and the Zorn odd 4 game hot streak at the beginning of 2008.  Here are the Redskins after wins

 

1 minute ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

So what?  This is year 5 of Gruden and this should not be the trend now.

 

Exactly... just because he didnt start it, doesn't mean's hes not at fault for it continuing... and maybe it comes from above, and maybe it's unfair to Gruden, but we can't fire Dan.  What we can do is hope to find a coach who sees this teams talent and comes in and takes over.  We're doomed to repeat a lot of mistakes while Dan is in charge..  but we can't allow the team to CONTINUE on negative trends and write it off as "well Dan is the owner."  For a long time we overpaid players that didnt deserve it (some would say we did it with Norman) and it appears we've changed that.  We used to neglect the lines, and we're working toward fixing that.  We've neglected the RB position, and we appear to have focused more on that.  Just because this franchise was a certain way in 2008 and the owner hasn't changed, doesn't mean it cant be different in 2018.. 

[Skinsinparadise]

1 hour ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

So what?  This is year 5 of Gruden and this should not be the trend now.

 

I said before the season if its the same old same old I get the need to make a change.  But to me I'd let it fully play out.  The closest version of beating down Jay with you is my take with Alex Smith.  However, I am not as down on Alex as you are about Jay, i think he's OK-good.  But I think they downgraded.  And the trade was a mistake.  However, I am willing to see the whole season play out before I land hard on that position.  My mind is open. Though I'll comment along the way.

 

And Jay has a previous sample size -- so does Alex.  But if I am bringing back a coach I am not going to say that's it after just 4 games.  And I get you aren't saying fire him now.  But I don't think 4 games spells any pattern, yet for the season.   Lets see what happens next.  If its an 8-8 roster, ups and downs, then yeah I get it.  And to me its not because they underachieved but they didn't overachieve either.  It feels to me like an 8-8 roster at the moment. But heck, 10-6 to me isn't impossible, will see.  Or maybe it goes south.  This team is hard for me to get a handle on and I felt that way before the season started. 

 

1 hour ago, Morneblade said:

 

I think the point was that it was not a trend that Jay started. Also you could make a point that this type of trend starts above Jay. But, it certainly has continued through Jay.

 

 

Yep.  I get challenged by some for being too interested in what the media thinks .  But its never about what the media thinks.  I am obsessive about what little nuggets I can pull out from guys like Finlay, Russell, etc about what they hear from people they know who work in that front office. Reason being that the FO people openly are so close to the vest that its hard to know any other way.  I am fascinated by it because I think it matters more to the team's future than anything else.

 

And the vibe I got from listening to multiple people before the season was the FO was smug (led by Bruce) they think they built a killer roster.  They scoffed at the idea that at best they'd sneak in as a wild card and instead think its likely a division winning roster.  They think Alex is an upgrade over Kirk and not a small one.  They didn't go crazy in FA because they didn't have to -- they built a winner as is.

 

For years I thought the hallmark of Dan's era is odd smugness not backed by winning.    New scapegoats arise and new "heroes" emerge. We can go on and on. And it filters to the team-coaches.  Remember Haslett is now unshackled that Shanny is gone.  Zorn was going to fix Campbell.  Imagine if the team didn't have injuries, they'd be awesome -- how many times have we heard that one? 

 

I recall the thing that made me lose it with Shanny was when he said they have a top 5 defense if everyone was healthy.   Rex crowing.  Smoot crowing.  Baker crowing.    Shanny was holding RG3 back.  Then it was Jay.  The narrative last off season given from the FO to the beat guys was Kirk was holding them back, it was the turnovers, he was holding back Doctson because he didn't have the guts to throw to him on and on. 

 

Now they got it figured out and are in better hands.  The dude is a winner.  As Dan said hey Alex is like a breath of fresh air.    And I don't mean to pick on Alex but a lot of the smugness seemed to be centered on him.  And if we are blaming Jay, yeah he was part of that too with his without a doubt he's an upgrade comment.  And maybe they all turn out to be right but it doesn't look that way thus far.  Though short sample size thus far.

 

Being smug after a little success does seem to be a Redskins culture thing.  I don't feel like repeating it but I've done it on other threads citing examples from players -- heck Dan I recall hearing about him celebrating like a kid in the locker room shouting at the top of his lungs about how they beat an NFC East.  Dan from what some say is up and down like an emotional pendulum with each win or lose. 

 

My point relating to the topic at hand.  Vinny survived all those years in part I think because the animosity from the fans was directed at the coaches versus him.  When it finally turned squarely on Vinny -- he was then canned.   Jerry Jones likes Garrett because he's comfortable with him.  Dan's version of that is being comfortable with whomever is in charge of the FO.   Vinny himself said it gets Dan's attention when fans revolt and who the targets are.  He goes that when it got directed his way he lost his job.

 

And I am not saying Alex needs to be fixed and the season goes south.  I got no idea one way or another.  But if Jay is fired I don't see a scenario where Alex isn't part of that narrative where he didn't underperform.  And while I get canning Jay after going 8-8 -- if the message that Dan gets from that season would be fans would be satisfied if Jay is gone don't worry about the rest of the operation -- that to me is nauseating.  I think Bruce likely goes, too.  But to me he's the center of the problem.  Bruce (along with Dan) to me is the batman not the robin issue here IMO. 

 

[Wildbunny]

5 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

And the vibe I got from listening to multiple people before the season was the FO was smug (led by Bruce) they think they built a killer roster.  They scoffed at the idea that at best they'd sneak in as a wild card and instead think its likely a division winning roster.  They think Alex is an upgrade over Kirk and not a small one.  They didn't go crazy in FA because they didn't have to -- they built a winner as is.

 

Somehow, that's almost exactly the same kind of vibe you got from ES a few months after the trade, and then the draft. Besides a few posters, that was a general sentiment around here.

 

Our FO is just like us, doom and gloom.

 

And the only guy that seem competent enough to me, is Jay Gruden. I don't put much stock in whatever he says, especially when it comes to players. He's a good employee and will tell what he's told too, and he's not bashing players in public anymore except with general stuff like "whole team has to play better". And he always ends up putting it on him.

 

But our FO could be more professionnal that's for sure. Doom and gloom is good for fans, just like us. But for them, that's their job, they're supposed to know. And you may think you have a winner roster, you should still be looking for upgrades. Because there's no such thing as perfection in sport. And thinking that you are a winner will leads you to losing.

[skins island connection]

7 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I haven't slowed down the games on coaches tape and watched like I did last off season for the season that ended.  So I can answer better when I have time to do it.  But in concept the idea that Peterson who many thought were washed up last year is underachieving in Jay's offense seems wild to me. Before last week he's was 5th in the league in rushing.

 

the rest of my post not directed to you.  I get that to some it feels good to peg Jay as the core of the problem.  But if you listen to for example Cooley's film breakdown in his view they had a good game plan.  Cooley's description of that game was eerily similar to the vibe I got to his description of the Tampa game with RG3 in 2013 -- in that game Cooley said the offense just looked inept because of the QB. 

 

 

 I don't think AP is washed up by a long shot; given a good o-line and some halfway stability in the passing game, he can really flourish.

With that being said, you mentioned he was 5th in rushing thus far. Do you attribute that feat as being mostly AP or by the ability of the o-line? Maybe that's what I was trying to get at.

I agree, Gruden isn't the core problem, but he does have quite a few faults that he's still not overcome thus far.

I think everyone is in agreement that the main problem is Allen. He is the engine that drives the ineptness. The old saying " once is an accident, two is a trend and three is a problem", regarding Allen, Oakland was the accident, Tampa Bay was the trend, and Washington is the problem.

 

On the field, its either success or massive failure, not simply failure. The entire offense is held in check, and with little help from the defense, it just adds to the problem. This is where Gruden carries the burden of game planning and adjusting. Its one thing to blame the defense, but in the losses the offense looked out of it and the points came when opponents' defense took a little off which enabled some scoring.

 

As the season goes on, it will be clear whether or not Gruden is following a game plan which is almost the same in every game, and that teams are figuring out; formations give it away it seems, and he has to dig deep into the playbook to change up the formations, maybe get more movement before snap, at least to try and confuse the defense. His scripts of plays currently are putting this team behind, and he needs to start mixing things up more or it will get even uglier, like the KC game a few years ago, where the stands were nearly empty.

[88Comrade2000]

The #1 person responsible for the Skins failures, is Dan Snyder.  That's pretty obvious.

 

There really is no more evaluation of Jay to be done.  You have 4 1/4 years to know what you have with Jay.  Regardless of how this team finishes, you know what you have in Jay.

 

i know some here think Jay will somehow gets us 10 or 11 wins. Maybe even win the division and go on a nice playoff run.  So, you chide us for judging Jay already.

There is nothing in Jay's coaching DNA to suggest he will win that many games.  Jay has a ceiling and that's 9 games.  If the Skins make the playoffs this year, it will only be because of the rest of the NFC East being down.  Just like it was in 2015; when he last made the playoffs.  The Skins aren't the type of team to seize things and take a division.  The division just happens to collapse and they are able to take advantage of that.

 

Jay can be coach for the next 5 years and you will get the same result, mediocrity. The end result of 2018, playoffs or not; is moving on from Jay.

 

Jay isn't the only problem but he's the most obvious change that will be made.  We know Dan isn't going to have the front office, we all know he needs to.  So, we've reached the time for a new coach in 2019.  Another 4-5 years until we do it again. That will be the permanent cycle under Snyder.

[Spaceman Spiff]

I think this game against Carolina is the biggest game of Gruden's tenure here, outside of previous games with playoff implications.  

 

Taking a step back and looking at what's going on, there seems to be a lot of tension mounting early on.  We beat a bad Cardinals team, didn't show up for the Colts game, beat Aaron Rodgers (like how I didn't even say the Packers?) at 60% strength and then got absolutely smoked by the Saints.  IMO, the Skins have played 1.5 good games of football this year and 2.5 ****ty ones.  Our highest profile CB was benched at halftime, the headphone report is troubling.  Then he got into a Twitter beef with the best receiver in the league.  Our 2nd year stud D-lineman went off on a profanity laced rant, and it seems obvious he's having a hard time dealing with this after being at Alabama.  

 

It's year 5 of Gruden, as hard as it is to believe.  And I think we all like Jay, as a guy.  Jay's the dude you'd want to hang out with, get a beer with, be friendly with.  I think we've seen how much leash a likable guy gets who's also got a recognizable last name.  And this year, they've pushed their chips to the middle of the table.  All that talk in camp about preseason about Alex Smith and how smart he is, blah blah, blah...well, Jay, you got your guy, even though you already had a damn good one.  Picking up AP after Guice went down.  No more excuses, time to roll.

 

Even though we're only 4 weeks into this season, the same issues that have plagued this team over the past 5 years remain and have shown up this year  Games where they look underprepared, out coached and just don't show up.  Terrible on Monday Night Football and prime time games, almost always.  Terrible coming off a bye week.  Playing down to competition.  Getting super conservative with a lead and almost blowing it.  I understand that no team plays well in all 16 games, but the Skins seem to be flat more often than not.  And it's not for a lack of talent, either.  IMO, there's talented players on this team.  I don't think they're close to being the Rams but when I look at the Skins roster I feel that there's too much talent to perform as poorly as they have.  The Colts are dog****, there's no reason the Skins should have lost that game.  

 

I'm usually not one for hyperbole and hot take statements, but I truly believe that this is the biggest game of his tenure here.  If they come out and play like they did against the Colts and Saints, kiss this season goodbye, we'll know exactly what we're in for which is more of the same that I listed above.  Carolina is a good team and they always give us fits.  Cam, as much as I hate him, is the type of QB we just do not do well against.  

 

But if they come out tomorrow, play physical and show some fire after getting embarrassed last week, I think there's a chance that they can turn this thing around.  Unfortunately, I fear for the worst because I am conditioned to it.  I'm expecting the same, flat team we saw in New Orleans.

[NoVaSkins21]

27 minutes ago, Rdskns2000 said:

The #1 person responsible for the Skins failures, is Dan Snyder.  That's pretty obvious.

 

There really is no more evaluation of Jay to be done.  You have 4 1/4 years to know what you have with Jay.  Regardless of how this team finishes, you know what you have in Jay.

 

iWe know Dan isn't going to have the front office, we all know he needs to.  So, we've reached the time for a new coach in 2019.  Another 4-5 years until we do it again. That will be the permanent cycle under Snyder.

 

Snyder is the lone constant and the coach will be the sacrificial lamb/scapegoat for this team's failure.  Unless that person's name is Joe Gibbs, he'll be the next person on the firing line.  Snyder has had people like Marty and McGlougan, but threw them out because they were a shot to his ego.  He also had Yes men like Vinny and Bruce to do his bidding so it wouldn't like a complete disaster even though it totally was.  

[crabbypatty]

To me, the Jay situation needs a flush. The guy has proven he can't win and is not a very good head coach. He needs to be a coordinator and that's it.

 

His whole hiring was a sham. It was an inside buddy buddy deal engineered by Bruce.. who deserves fired as well. 

There were better coaches available that year, and everyone knew the fix was in when Gruden was announced as a candidate. 

[PartyPosse]

On 10/12/2018 at 11:58 AM, Peregrine said:

Oh please, picking and choosing.  So if hes great under McVay it was because he was always going to be great, and it has nothing to do with McVay.  But vice-versa wouldnt fit your already decided factpinion if it was another player.  

You say Goff is one of the best, you say Gurley is one of the best, but the fact is they werent.  They werent even just mediocre, they were really really bad.  Gurley was running at 3.2 YPC.  Gurleys first year under McVay was better than both of his previous years combined, with 19 TDs.  In fact, in 2016 the Rams had the worst rushing offense the franchise has had in the past 50 years. The issue with Goff wasnt just that he was an underdeveloped rookie.  The issue was that he was outright terrible.  His performance that season was one the worst rookie QB seasons in modern history.  In fact, his combination of TDs, turnovers, and yards per attempt put him in the top 5 worst seasons for a rookie in the past 40 years.

 

Basically the side that hates McVay just wants to say that the reason the Rams were bad was because of their HC, but the reason they are good now isnt because of their HC. Probably because of some of the guilt for trashing McVay and wanting him out because red zone scoring wasnt good enough, without realizing hes a young guy who had a top offense.  Now you realize what we had, and what we let get away.

 

 

 

Gurley in the prior year was OROY and looked elite. Goff was a #1 pick. The team was a mediocre one with young pieces and the wheels just fell off in Fishers last year. I like McVay but if you think Goff was never going to be anything but a terrible QB until Sean entered his life just based off a bad 6 game audition then you’re crazy. That would have been like the Angels dumping Trout because his first stint in MLB was subpar.

[TradeTheBeal!]

Gruden is absolute trash.  An 8 year old playing Madden has better situational awareness.  You run a draw, spike it and kick the FG going in to the half.

 

****ing moron.

[Burgold]

In some respects, the win against the Panthers makes me madder at Gruden (poor guy can't win  ) It just shows that there was no reason this team should have come out that flat and that bad against the Saints and especially the Colts. His inability to get his team consistently ready is a big, big problem.

[TradeTheBeal!]

1 minute ago, Burgold said:

In some respects, the win against the Panthers makes me madder at Gruden (poor guy can't win  ) It just shows that there was no reason this team should have come out that flat and that bad against the Saints and especially the Colts. His inability to get his team consistently ready is a big, big problem.

 

Gruden wrote a masterclass on how to blow a 17 point lead at home.

 

Hopkins bailed him out.

[BatteredFanSyndrome]

Man, if only Gruden could suit up and play quarterback.

[Burgold]

That too @TryTheBeal!

[TradeTheBeal!]

7 minutes ago, BatteredFanSyndrome said:

Man, if only Gruden could suit up and play quarterback.

 

Cousins 0-2 vs Carolina.  1 touchdown, 3 turnovers.

[BatteredFanSyndrome]

Just now, TryTheBeal! said:

 

Cousins 0-2 vs Carolina.  1 touchdown, 3 turnovers.

 

If only I could figure out if you’re trolling or actually serious with some of the egregious stuff you post regarding quarterback play.

[PartyPosse]

The Cousins Smith crap is tiresome. Until either guy can show they can win in the playoffs who gives a crap?

[Renegade7]

How come it's always how bad we look and the other team having nothing to so with it?  Getting old, yall.

[Renegade7]

Hot take: Gruden CAN maximize his talent, he jus hasn't proven he can do it consistently. Here we are without CT and our best WR and we still win the game.  Could of been better?  Sure.  But we still gonna be calling for this guys head if we are winning football games?