Evaluating Jay Gruden in 2018

[Skinsinparadise]

2 hours ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

Motivation = preparation in the NFL.  If a team appears as though they are unmotivated and lay and egg, that's on preparation. 

 

As for preparation, I was just listening to Cooley's film review on his new podcast.  According to him, the scheme was good on Monday at least on offense.  Receivers were open a lot.  Big plays were there to be had -- including easy TDs.  I know some say it was the O line -- Cooley thought at times yeah but by and large it was Alex not seeing the field, having happy feet in the pocket and being wildly inaccurate.

 

Now this isn't for me to pick on Alex but make the point that yeah sometimes the players can lay an egg in spite of the scheme.  And I have listened to enough Cooley film reviews to know that he isn't shy in taking digs at Jay.   As for Alex's bad game.  I am sure he will bounce back.  Ditto the secondary which had a horrendous game. 

 

Look I said before the season if the team is up and down, 8-8ish -- I get firing Jay because that's how the NFL rolls, coaches only have so much time.  The dude isn't perfect but again he's far for me as the top thing holding the team back.  And if we get rid of him be careful sometimes what you wish for -- because there are plenty of "meh" HC hirings in the NFL let alone having a reboot of a team with a 35 year old QB. 

 

1. John Keim‏Verified account @john_keim 9h9 hours ago

   There were a handful of plays, with proper execution -- whether by the RB or the QB -- that should have resulted in TDs.

    
2.  

   John Keim‏Verified account @john_keim 9h9 hours ago

   More

   As Cooley said on his podcast (i liked it b/c saw the same. always makes me feel good when that happens): a lot of plays there to be made offensively. WRs were open on enough plays. Didn't take advantage. So don't blame WRs/scheme. OK, so bad game for Smith. So: play better Sun

    

[Voice_of_Reason]

2 hours ago, goskins10 said:

 

 

I think everyone knew they would bring him back unless he somehow got signed. I just think most of us - me for sure - never thought they would make him the starter. Had they brought him back for depth with someone else as the starter, I would have been Ok with that. He knows the system. They do like him. But not as the starter. I agree bad plan from the start. 

I knew he was the starter when they didn’t sign anybody in the first 2-3 days of FA.  In fact, I’m pretty sure we could go back to the “What to do at LG” thread and my first post in that thread, we’ll before SL was re-signed was that he was the plan all along, they just didn’t have to rush it. 

[Voice_of_Reason]

@Skinsinparadise part of Jays job is to make sure his 13 year veteran QB is prepared to play.  That’s about the worst Smith has played since his rookie season. And it’s on Gruden’s watch.

 

Gruden has done a crap job preparing Alex in a new offense. 

 

Contrast that to his start in KC when he started out on fire

 

One coach knows how to prepare a QB and the other is Jay Gruden.

 

I know you like Jay, and think Bruce is the problem, and to an extent I agree.  

 

However its absoltely inarguable at this point that Gruden does not prepare the team consistently or maximize the talent on the team on a regular basis, and it hasn’t gotten better with experience.  It might have gotten worse 

[Skinsinparadise]

1 minute ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

@Skinsinparadise part of Jays job is to make sure his 13 year veteran QB is prepared to play.  That’s about the worst Smith has played since his rookie season. And it’s on Gruden’s watch.

 

 

 

 

2 minutes ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

@Skinsinparadise 

Gruden has done a crap job preparing Alex in a new offense. 

 

 

There are plenty of people who covered Alex who say Alex struggles when the running game isn't working and he has to deal with a shoot out in the passing game especially coming from behind. Monday night was a perfect storm for all of it.  You can argue that was Alex coming closer to type than not type considering that specific context -- granted he likely doesn't play that poorly typically -- but a shoot out, playing from behind, no running game -- is the perfect storm for Alex to have a below average game according to plenty of observers.   I sourced a gazillion people on it in the Alex thread including people who covered him in KC -- well before Monday nights game.

 

4 minutes ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

@Skinsinparadise 

Contrast that to his start in KC when he started out on fire

 

Yeah where he had the best running game in the league (their running game finished first) the best deep threat in the league on and on.  Mahomes with just about the same supporting cast looks like Aaron Rodgers on steroids.  If you notice the two big games of Adrian Peterson = 2 wins and 2 of Alex's best games.  2 games were Peterson was a nonfactor -- Alex was "meh".  Coincidence?

 

6 minutes ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

@Skinsinparadise 

One coach knows how to prepare a QB and the other is Jay Gruden.

 

 

If you want to argue Andy Reid is more inventive with his offensive scheme -- I can entertain that idea.  On the Alex thread in the off season, some were suggesting Reid was holding Alex back as to him being more prolific.    I get the point.  Jay likes to throw more.  But Reid to me and his coordinators are very inventive.  I think Jay is a good play caller, too.  But is Reid more inventive?  Probably so.  Do you have to be more inventive with a QB like Alex?  Probably.  So I can see this angle specifically.  But I mean that more in a complement to Reid than a shot at Jay.

 

10 minutes ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

@Skinsinparadise 

However its absoltely inarguable at this point that Gruden does not prepare the team consistently or maximize the talent on the team on a regular basis, and it hasn’t gotten better with experience.  It might have gotten worse 

 

There is a problem with consistency with this team that goes back several regimes.  It's a button for me.  This team oddly can't handle even a little success.  I've documented it many times and did it before Jay, too.  Has Jay broken this mold?  Clearly, not.  But I'll give him the season to figure it out.  I think all the losses in opening games got Jay's attention before this opener.  He talked about it.  it was on his mind.  I think the inconsistency drill has hit a rock bottom vibe which i've never seen before -- players are talking about it.  And i like it.  Because this problem has not been acknowledged much in the past -- some media types talk about it but I don't recall Jay and players so much.  The Saints game might have been the rock bottom wake up call that was needed.  Will see.  I am not counting Jay and the team out. 

[Voice_of_Reason]

@Skinsinparadise we’ll never see eye to eye on this.  I believe Gruden lacks all the qualities that make a good HC.  You don’t.  

 

I’d bet a good steak dinner he’ll never have a 10 win team, either here or elsewhere.  He will take talent and make it average.  He’d take the Rams and make them .500.  He has undisciplined, inconsistent teams, and he’s had 4 years to fix that trend and has failed. Another 4 years won’t help him.  He is what he is, a mediocre HC but above average OC who unfortunately is family friends with Bruce Allen. 

[goskins10]

1 hour ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

I knew he was the starter when they didn’t sign anybody in the first 2-3 days of FA.  In fact, I’m pretty sure we could go back to the “What to do at LG” thread and my first post in that thread, we’ll before SL was re-signed was that he was the plan all along, they just didn’t have to rush it. 

 

Easy now - That was not questioning you or taking credit away...     I specifically said we all knew he was coming back just not as a starter. You had the starter part right.   

 

 

 

 

[BatteredFanSyndrome]

@Voice_of_Reason

 

I take it you must be really impressed with the roster.  Some of us think winning 50% of the games with the rosters and situations he’s been given is about right on the mark.  I venture a guess you think he’s leaving several W’s on the field each season.

[Voice_of_Reason]

11 minutes ago, goskins10 said:

 

Easy now - That was not questioning you or taking credit away...     I specifically said we all knew he was coming back just not as a starter. You had the starter part right.   

 

 

 

Chuckle, that came off more defensive than intended.  It’s just that it was so freaking obvious.  I don’t think they really had any other intention. 

[Voice_of_Reason]

15 minutes ago, BatteredFanSyndrome said:

@Voice_of_Reason

 

I take it you must be really impressed with the roster.  Some of us think winning 50% of the games with the rosters and situations he’s been given is about right on the mark.  I venture a guess you think he’s leaving several W’s on the field each season.

Impressed? Not really.  Though that 2016 team left 3 wins on the field easy and most of that was on Gruden.  A good coach gets that team to 10 wins at a minimum, probably 11-12 wins. Part of that is the knowledge NOT to hire the worst DC in the history of the league.  The defense might not have been great, but Barry made them atrocious.

 

2015 they left 1-2 games on the field due to bad preparation and bad coaching.  Dallas Monday Night was a key loss...

 

Last year, the injuries were a thing.  I’ll grant that.  But he mis-manages the chiefs game and Saints games, which were both losses.

 

This year, no shows against 2 teams. 

 

Is the roster great? No.  Does it have enough talent to win 9 or 10 games with good coaching, yes.  Could an average coach get them to 7 or 8 wins?  Sure.  Is that what Jay is? Yep.  

 

Btw, the Colts are not a great team.  The Skins should have won that game. At least been competitive. And they no-showed and got blown out.  

 

The roster is better than that performance.

 

 

[Cooleyfan1993]

^a 12 point loss isn’t what I’d call a “blowout”. Monday nights game? THAT is a blowout ??

[skins island connection]

10 hours ago, Renegade7 said:

 

It's ok, I have trouble tempering my varied responses to varied responses, why I stepped away after game, just too crazy in here.

 

To clarify, its not that think jay isn't the problem, I don't think he's the main problem.  This is a jay thread but this is bigger then jay.  There have been reports about his frustration in personal decisions, so I don't think it's fair for posters to come in a pile on blaming him for that.

 

I'm perfectly fine criticizing him for what I believe he has control over, I do that a lot in game day thread, then try to step back the next day.

 

 No prob, this team does this to its fans.

 

[skins island connection]

58 minutes ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

Impressed? Not really.  Though that 2016 team left 3 wins on the field easy and most of that was on Gruden.  A good coach gets that team to 10 wins at a minimum, probably 11-12 wins. Part of that is the knowledge NOT to hire the worst DC in the history of the league.  The defense might not have been great, but Barry made them atrocious.

 

2015 they left 1-2 games on the field due to bad preparation and bad coaching.  Dallas Monday Night was a key loss...

 

Last year, the injuries were a thing.  I’ll grant that.  But he mis-manages the chiefs game and Saints games, which were both losses.

 

This year, no shows against 2 teams. 

 

Is the roster great? No.  Does it have enough talent to win 9 or 10 games with good coaching, yes.  Could an average coach get them to 7 or 8 wins?  Sure.  Is that what Jay is? Yep.  

 

Btw, the Colts are not a great team.  The Skins should have won that game. At least been competitive. And they no-showed and got blown out.  

 

The roster is better than that performance.

 

 

 

  That's what gets me; this team has talent, not superstar material but better than average, and they all have experience, they're not rookies.

 The rooks and 2nd-3rd year guys are the ones who are the easiest to mold. They have enough of a skillset to be in the league, but I'm sure in the backs of their minds they're a little unsure at times, maybe in crucial situations, and THATS where Jay needs to reside, in the back of their minds, to elevate their cushion so when they do get in a rut it doesn't last long and its not as detrimental.

 

Its been mentioned a lot, but Bruce and Jay are joined at the hips; but Bruce would turn on Jay in a heartbeat if push came to shove, thats the classiness that Allen has, to save his own butt at the expense of others. Allen has a longstanding history with the Grudens, from Oakland to Tampa to DC, and its that kind of influence that can keep a team from ever progressing.

 

Jay has to venture into the unknown parts of the playbook, institute some different formations, more movement, to try to negate any tip-offs defenses see. He has to experiment some, get really creative, and he HAS to start taking chances [  not with Josh "Gordon Flatfoot" Doctson ] but other WRs, he has to at least attempt to stretch the field, get the heat off of the front line so Smith can try to capitalize, but he's not that kind of coach. He's more of the higher % types of plays that limit the possibilities of a turnover, but its not working. The assistants may not be doing the WRs any favors also, but dink-n-dunk until they're down 20 then go for broke isn't the right approach.

 

It really sucks that Snyder sees Allen so differently than the fans do, but Gruden is suffering from less-than stellar players; Doctson is the tallest WR but he's a no-show who needs to be gone, and this is the perfect time to start showing some tough love instead of puppy love. I doubt Gruden is here next year unless something starts clicking, and fast. Will it be Allen bringing him the pink slip? That would be awkward.

[Conn]

Anyone have any doubt whatsoever that this broken Giants squad will whoop our asses at least once this year? I'll be at the home game in Decemeber and I fully expect it to happen then as we're lamely fighting for the playoffs

[Renegade7]

4 hours ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

@Skinsinparadise we’ll never see eye to eye on this.  I believe Gruden lacks all the qualities that make a good HC.  You don’t.  

 

I’d bet a good steak dinner he’ll never have a 10 win team, either here or elsewhere.  He will take talent and make it average.  He’d take the Rams and make them .500.  He has undisciplined, inconsistent teams, and he’s had 4 years to fix that trend and has failed. Another 4 years won’t help him.  He is what he is, a mediocre HC but above average OC who unfortunately is family friends with Bruce Allen. 

 

Lol, ill take that bet.  What's the time frame, never is a long damn time : )

 

i mean, he was 9-7 with Cousins and no 1000 yard receivers.

[JoeJacobyHOForRIOT]

I like Gruden but I think as a head coach 5 years is a reasonable amount of time where your team should be beginning to separate from the division and start being feared as a playoff team. The Redskins seem to be stuck in a perpetual cycle of mediocrity which to Jays credit is alot better than other coaches have fared here. With that said as a fan, If we fail to Win the division this year I think firing Gruden is the right move 

[BatteredFanSyndrome]

11 hours ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

Impressed? Not really.  Though that 2016 team left 3 wins on the field easy and most of that was on Gruden.  A good coach gets that team to 10 wins at a minimum, probably 11-12 wins. Part of that is the knowledge NOT to hire the worst DC in the history of the league.  The defense might not have been great, but Barry made them atrocious.

 

2015 they left 1-2 games on the field due to bad preparation and bad coaching.  Dallas Monday Night was a key loss...

 

Last year, the injuries were a thing.  I’ll grant that.  But he mis-manages the chiefs game and Saints games, which were both losses.

 

This year, no shows against 2 teams. 

 

Is the roster great? No.  Does it have enough talent to win 9 or 10 games with good coaching, yes.  Could an average coach get them to 7 or 8 wins?  Sure.  Is that what Jay is? Yep.  

 

Btw, the Colts are not a great team.  The Skins should have won that game. At least been competitive. And they no-showed and got blown out.  

 

The roster is better than that performance.

 

 

 

I don’t disagree that Jay has some duds.  But so do a lot of coaches, every season.  It’s easier not to have duds when you have studs (I should be a rapper).  We don’t have very many of them.  What I think happens with coaches is that we as fans can pick apart all their weak points because they are evident while completely glossing over their positives.  Every single coach, every single season has some bad games, even Bill.  But if you have studs, generational talent, and leaders on your team, you probably don’t have many bad games.  If, like the Redskins, you are average at best roster wise, you are bound to have more bad games.  

 

I think Jay is an average head coach at this point that has gotten roughly about as many wins as this roster is capable.  That said, he works in Ashburn and it’s not easy.  It wouldn’t surprise me if he ends up a coordinator again, leverages it into a second chance at a head coaching job and comes back an improved coach from his experiences here.

[goskins10]

12 hours ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

@Skinsinparadise part of Jays job is to make sure his 13 year veteran QB is prepared to play.  That’s about the worst Smith has played since his rookie season. And it’s on Gruden’s watch.

 

Gruden has done a crap job preparing Alex in a new offense. 

 

Contrast that to his start in KC when he started out on fire

 

One coach knows how to prepare a QB and the other is Jay Gruden.

 

I know you like Jay, and think Bruce is the problem, and to an extent I agree.  

 

However its absoltely inarguable at this point that Gruden does not prepare the team consistently or maximize the talent on the team on a regular basis, and it hasn’t gotten better with experience.  It might have gotten worse 

 

The reason you get a 13 year veteran is that you should not have to spend nearly the time get him prepared. It's the players job to make sure he is prepared just as much as the coach. You should not have to hold his hand like a rookie.

 

I am all on board with moving on from Jay. But Alex owns his performance and lack of being prepared. That is on him. You could possibly put it on Bruce for bringing him in with the history. But as much as I dislike Bruce, Alex was coming off his best season as a pro. 

 

Blame Jay for the game plan if you want and not motivating players to a certain extent. That's fair. But that does not absolve players from their own responsibilities. Alex owns not being prepared just as much as Jay. After all he is a 13 yr veteran. 

[BatteredFanSyndrome]

Blame Bruce for bringing him in when it doesn’t appear he’s a good fit for the system and going the ole Redskins way with the square peg round hole theory.

 

Perhaps you can blame Jay for being complicit after the fact and raving about how much he likes him after he talked himself into it.  But you can’t blame Jay for calling plays that have guys open all night and Alex just not being the guy to pull the trigger.  On the list of Jay’s issues, not preparing Alex to play on Monday doesn’t register.

[Voice_of_Reason]

8 hours ago, Renegade7 said:

 

Lol, ill take that bet.  What's the time frame, never is a long damn time : )

 

i mean, he was 9-7 with Cousins and no 1000 yard receivers.

He was? The only 9-7 season he has was 2015 with both DJax and Garçon. 2016 was 8-7-1, again with both of them, 2017 without DJax and Garçon was 7-9.

 

You pick the timeframe.  He’s never going to get there so whatever you want to select, I’ll just put it on my calendar for a steak dinner.

[KingGibbs]

I've been a Jay supporter, but watching the Monday debacle has changed that. Did I expect to win that game? No. We were walking into a buzzsaw. But that performance after two weeks of preparation is inexcusable. I'm also tired of his "We're not a good team playing from behind" narrative. That's great Jay. Tell the team that they basically have to have a lead to have a chance at winning. 

[Voice_of_Reason]

1 hour ago, BatteredFanSyndrome said:

On the list of Jay’s issues, not preparing Alex to play on Monday doesn’t register.

I'm still salty that he only got like 1 half of time in the preseason, and still seems to be "thinking" and not reacting.  And I know that Smith is better than that, because he's been better than that. 

 

Somebody on the radio this morning with Galdi even pointed out that Alex's performance is a reflection on Gruden.  I think it was Ross Tucker...

 

 

[BatteredFanSyndrome]

4 minutes ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

 

Somebody on the radio this morning with Galdi even pointed out that Alex's performance is a reflection on Gruden.  I think it was Ross Tucker...

 

 

Seems kind of silly that a guy would need to change his whole offense to fit an aging vet.  Less silly than acquiring the aging vet to play in a system that doesn’t fit his strong suit.

[Renegade7]

1 hour ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

He was? The only 9-7 season he has was 2015 with both DJax and Garçon. 2016 was 8-7-1, again with both of them, 2017 without DJax and Garçon was 7-9.

 

You pick the timeframe.  He’s never going to get there so whatever you want to select, I’ll just put it on my calendar for a steak dinner.

Hmm... Are we only counting years hes a head coach?  I'd say 5 years as HC not counting this one, so 6 years as a head coach.  This is given I expect him to get fired if we miss playoffs, and if anyone givea him another chance he might get 5 years again.  I don't know how well keep track of this, but if he can't get it done in 15, ill admit defeat by default.

[goskins10]

16 minutes ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

I'm still salty that he only got like 1 half of time in the preseason, and still seems to be "thinking" and not reacting.  And I know that Smith is better than that, because he's been better than that. 

 

Somebody on the radio this morning with Galdi even pointed out that Alex's performance is a reflection on Gruden.  I think it was Ross Tucker...

 

 

 

Seriously? So a few talking heads say it so it must be 100%? Again, sure Jays owns some of it, mostly in terms of play calling and game plan. But you should not have to hold a 13 yr vet's hand to get him ready and prepared. His biggest value was to be off schedule plays. That has nothing to do with Jay in terms of preparation. Alex has been really up and down on this. One week good at extending plays and making something happen and really bad at other times - see last Monday Night. 

 

They need to right this ship and quickly or this season will be gone. As I said elsewhere, the only positive is that Bruce Allen should be gone with it. 

[Voice_of_Reason]

40 minutes ago, Renegade7 said:

Hmm... Are we only counting years hes a head coach?  I'd say 5 years as HC not counting this one, so 6 years as a head coach.  This is given I expect him to get fired if we miss playoffs, and if anyone givea him another chance he might get 5 years again.  I don't know how well keep track of this, but if he can't get it done in 15, ill admit defeat by default.

Yes, only years as a head coach.  I expect him to get fired if we don't make the playoffs also, and I don't expect us to make the playoffs at 8-8, so I expect him to get fired.  (And, shockingly, I expect Bruce to go also, maybe not fired, but either he's gone, or Snyder moves him sideways into some other role, and pushes LaFamina (or whatever his name is) out.)

 

I also see no scenario where he gets another HC gig right away.  He won't be a hot commodity as a HC after 5 years and a blah record here. So he'll have to go to Oakland and be OC for Jon, which might or might not work.  He might never get another HC gig.  

 

So, here's the deal: I'll give him 10 years total as HC to get to 10 wins. This is year 5.  He won't do it this year.  So he's got 5 more years as a HC to get a team to 10 wins.  I think it's going to take him at least 3 or 4 years to get another shot, so I'm willing to give him until 2030 to get a team to 10 wins as a HC.  If he gets fired after this year and doesn't get another opportunity, that means that 31 other organizations agree with me and he's a "meh" HC, and would not be able to get a team to 10 wins.  So I still win.  

 

I'll put January 5th 2030 on my calendar for a steak dinner.   On you.

 

EDIT: The absolute best thing in the world for Jay would be to go as an OC to a team not coached by Jon.  The absolute ideal situation would be if McDaniels leaves NE for a head coaching gig (doubtful), he gets that job, and learns what accountability is like from a winner, instead of from Marvin Lewis.  It would be hysterical if he ended up in Minnesota working with Kirk if DeFillipo is hired as a HC.  (And I would take him here...)  That won't't happen either, I doubt Kirk would allow it. 

 

Jay, really should go to an organization with a really good, established HC who's OC has moved up.  That would be a perfect situation for him.