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Vaya Con Dios, Manny! The plight of the 2018 Orioles


Spaceman Spiff

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1 hour ago, ixcuincle said:

Sounds like Britton might go to the Yankees.

 

Yup, for a haul equivalent to about 1/10 of what they could've gotten for him 2 years ago, and probably half of what they could've received for him last year.  Well played!

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19 minutes ago, capcrunch98 said:

 

Yup, for a haul equivalent to about 1/10 of what they could've gotten for him 2 years ago, and probably half of what they could've received for him last year.  Well played!

 

Instead of having a starting third baseman and a solid pitcher from last years trade, we get this from the Yankees.

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1 hour ago, Hersh said:

 

Instead of having a starting third baseman and a solid pitcher from last years trade, we get this from the Yankees.

 

Sucks, but we gambled on having some type of run this year and lost big time. 

 

Return doesn't look spectacular, but if even one of those guys becomes a bullpen regular, I'd say its a fair trade.

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9 minutes ago, justice98 said:

 

This rebuild might be long and arduous because of that.  

 

One thing I'm worried about with this rebuild is the O's becoming the Rays. Constantly selling their best players and never really contending save for one season here or there. 

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The return for Britton is about as good as we could have expected, especially not being far removed from injury and a rental.  1 pitcher will be in the top 10 of our system and another in the top 15-20.  Weren't the rumored offers at last years deadline pretty underwhelming?    This bad year came a year too late.  We were still clinging onto a possible wild card run at the deadline last year.  We just dragged our feet and only acquired Beckham.

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40 minutes ago, Hersh said:

 

One thing I'm worried about with this rebuild is the O's becoming the Rays. Constantly selling their best players and never really contending save for one season here or there. 

 

Well, to contend with the Yankees and Red Sox, you almost have to continue to feed your farm system and choose wisely when you do retain a couple good players for big money. It's almost like you have to time it with their cycles too...

 

In hindsight, a large piece of the 2012-2016 run of success was Boston's roller coaster and the Yankees being "just average" over that time while they shed some large contracts. 

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1 hour ago, Hersh said:

 

One thing I'm worried about with this rebuild is the O's becoming the Rays. Constantly selling their best players and never really contending save for one season here or there. 

 

If you do it right, you should have a .4-5 year window in which to compete for the series.

 

Which is why if Gausman, Bundy and Schoop start balling out, they should be traded when their value maximizes, to set up a run from 2022 - 2027  

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19 minutes ago, DCSaints_fan said:

 

If you do it right, you should have a .4-5 year window in which to compete for the series.

 

Which is why if Gausman, Bundy and Schoop start balling out, they should be traded when their value maximizes, to set up a run from 2022 - 2027  

 

If it takes that long for the O’s to be good, that means no one currently AA and AAA worked out and they either won’t have spent money wisely or simply won’t have spent money. 

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9 minutes ago, Hersh said:

 

If it takes that long for the O’s to be good, that means no one currently AA and AAA worked out and they either won’t have spent money wisely or simply won’t have spent money. 

 

False.  Machado was brought up in 2012 and hasn't hit FA until after this year.  So the O's got 7 years of cost controlled service time.  Bundy and Gausman are on similair tracks.  Which fits into my 3 years of rebuild + 4 year window.   No its not an exact process and obviously some are going to hit FA in the middle of the "window", but you develop a pipeline of guys from the minors coming up from to replace them and supplement with FA.  The idea is a young, cost controlled core of starters which you supplement with FA.  Not using FA as the core. 

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2 minutes ago, DCSaints_fan said:

 

False.  Machado was brought up in 2012 and hasn't hit FA until after this year.  So the O's got 7 years of cost controlled service time.  Bundy and Gausman are on similair tracks.  Which fits into my 3 years of rebuild + 4 year window.   No its not an exact process and obviously some are going to hit FA in the middle of the "window", but you develop a pipeline of guys from the minors coming up from to replace them and supplement with FA.  The idea is a young, cost controlled core of starters which you supplement with FA.  Not using FA as the core. 

 

The idea that teams win WS with a young, cost controlled core of starting pitchers is not a reality. People like to point to the Astros and Cubs as examples but neither of their staffs were young and the main reasons they won were older starters. Plus, teams that win supplement via trade with their farms. Gausman is the right age to be on a WS contender for the next 7-8 years. Same with Bundy. While I’m not suggesting they should automatically be extended and not traded, a team has to have veteran players to build around. 

Another way to think about it is this: let’s say 1 out of 4 good pitching prospects becomes a solid/good mlb starter. That might be generous too considering how few teams have multiple good home grown starters. So every time the O’s trade a Gausman, they need a few good prospects to have a chance that one replaces him. 

 

By keeping Gausman and Bundy, you build around them with Akin, Tate, Kremer, Baumann, Lowther, Hall, Hanifee, Ramirez, G-Rod, and whomever else. The team continues to build pitching depth which it can then trade for whatever is lacking. 

 

 

 

 

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Then end of the game got weird last night. Two position players needed to end it for the Rays. The first one didn’t actually know the mechanics of pitching, to set his hands, so he balked with every pitch. 

 

I get the white flag mentality of running a position player out there to save the pen. But man, at least put in someone that knows to set. Jeez. 

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On 7/25/2018 at 9:51 AM, Hersh said:

 

The idea that teams win WS with a young, cost controlled core of starting pitchers is not a reality. People like to point to the Astros and Cubs as examples but neither of their staffs were young and the main reasons they won were older starters. Plus, teams that win supplement via trade with their farms. Gausman is the right age to be on a WS contender for the next 7-8 years. Same with Bundy. While I’m not suggesting they should automatically be extended and not traded, a team has to have veteran players to build around. 

Another way to think about it is this: let’s say 1 out of 4 good pitching prospects becomes a solid/good mlb starter. That might be generous too considering how few teams have multiple good home grown starters. So every time the O’s trade a Gausman, they need a few good prospects to have a chance that one replaces him. 

 

By keeping Gausman and Bundy, you build around them with Akin, Tate, Kremer, Baumann, Lowther, Hall, Hanifee, Ramirez, G-Rod, and whomever else. The team continues to build pitching depth which it can then trade for whatever is lacking. 

 

When i say "win" I don't necessarily mean the series.   This is probably not a good metric because baseball playoffs are a total crapshoot.   i don't really see an "formula" for winning the series other than really having "hot" starting pitchers and "timely" hitting.   But there's no way to really predict that.  By all rights the Dodgers should have won when they had the Kershaw/Greinke combo, the same thing goes for the Tigers with Scherzer/Verlander. 

 

And I didn't specifically mean starting pitching or even pitching when I said "starters' but lets take a look at the Astros rotation last year.  Now granted, I think the Astros may have signed a pact with Satan to have their pitchers perform a standard deviation better than anyone in the league, but anyway here's all the Houston pitchers that started at least 10 games last year (Verlander only started 5 games for the Astros last year in the regular season) 

 

Name    GS/ERA

Mike Fiers    28/5.22
Charlie Morton  25/3.62
Dallas Keuchel*   23/2.9
Brad Pea**** 21/3.00
Lance McCullers Jr. 22/4.25
Collin McHugh  12/3.55

Joe Musgrove  15/4.77

 

Of those 7 pitchers, the only one who had signed as a "regular free" agent (as in not subject to salary arbitration after their deal is up) was Morton.  Most were on arbitration eligible type deals.   While maybe not "young" by standards(everyone except McCullers and Giles was at least 29), they were definitely "cost-controlled".   Seems like they had alot of late bloomers. 

 

 

 

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