Burgold

Redskins receiving corp is beginning to shape up

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And I hate to say the name Kirk again, but he also wasn't the QB that would strike the fear in the defense of a guy who's gonna beat you over the top.  I feel like Alex might change that... add to it a viable threat in the backfield, and we might be talking about these same WR a lot differently by mid season.  

 

Going through our schedule, the defensive passing YPG (i know, it's not a perfect guague, but it works) rank like this

 

Cardinals - 14th 

Colts -        28th  

Packers -   23rd 

Saints -      15th 

Panthers -  18th 

Cowboys -  11th

Giants -       31st

Falcons -    12th

Bucs -         32nd

Texans -      24th

Cowboys -   11th

Eagles -       17th

Giants -        31st

Jags -           1st

Titans -         25th

Eagles -        17th

 

 

we see 1 top 10 pass defense... all season.  

Edited by OVCChairman
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I added the Pass Defensive DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) score and ranking from, Football Outsiders. Also not perfect but is a bit more broad than yards.Tells a bit different story too. 

 

This is not to disparage the data you presented. Thanks for doing the research and posting. I honestly starting looking as I thought it might reinforce what you had. However, it tells a little different story. We face 4 teams (5 gms) against teams with a top 10 passing D last year. If we split them by top half and bottom half - it's 7 games against teams with top half (16th or better) and 9 against bottom half. 

 

As I said above though, I think the passing game will be fine. And if the running game can at least be a threat, the offense as a whole can be very good. 

 

 

3 hours ago, OVCChairman said:

And I hate to say the name Kirk again, but he also wasn't the QB that would strike the fear in the defense of a guy who's gonna beat you over the top.  I feel like Alex might change that... add to it a viable threat in the backfield, and we might be talking about these same WR a lot differently by mid season.  

 

Going through our schedule, the defensive passing YPG (i know, it's not a perfect guague, but it works) rank like this

 

Cardinals - 14th :    -3.9% - 10th

Colts -        28th :     28.5 - 32nd  

Packers -   23rd :     22% - 27th 

Saints -      15th :    -11.3% - 5th

Panthers -  18th :   -3.6% - 11th

Cowboys -  11th :   12.9% - 18th

Giants -       31st :   13% - 19th

Falcons -    12th :   13.3% - 20th

Bucs -         32nd:   26.4% - 31st

Texans -      24th :  19.1% - 25th

Cowboys -   11th :  12.9% - 18th

Eagles -       17th   -6.9% - 8th

Giants -        31st : 13% - 19th

Jags -           1st :   -27.6% - 1st

Titans -         25th : 18.9% - 24th 

Eagles -        17th :  -6.9% - 8th

 

 

we see 1 top 10 pass defense... all season.  

 

 

 

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15 hours ago, #BgMase76# said:

Not sure how much of a super star you need. Jay schemes players open as well. Crowder a little knicked up last year, no speed outside at all, and between Doctson and Reed one of them is gonna be healthy this season. Match that up with Smith's mobility. I think this offense could be very effective.

 

Well, so far Docton hasn't done much in Jay's scheme. Crowder took a couple steps back, in Jays scheme. Richardson hasn't really done anything. Granted, not in Jay's scheme. What kinda bugs me about this is that you seem to think that you can plug anyone into "Jay's scheme" and they are going to be effective. and I don't think that is true. Docton sure hasn't. Crowder has been up and down.

 

16 hours ago, Tarpon75 said:

I think this group will surprise some people. Should be quite a bit better than the group that suited up last year.By the way, I am pretty sure Richardson’s numbers last year were comparable or better than Crowder’s. Richardsons 4-4 speed can’t hurt either.

 

Why? Doctson has done nothing. Richardson has done nothing. Crowder is the only one that has. Richardson's numbers are a little below Crowder's last year. Crowder wins in catches, catch % and yards. Richardson wins in TD's and ypc. Also keep in mind Richardson is off injured and last year was by far his best year, while last year was not Crowder's best year.

 

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51 minutes ago, Morneblade said:

Why? Doctson has done nothing. Richardson has done nothing. Crowder is the only one that has. Richardson's numbers are a little below Crowder's last year. Crowder wins in catches, catch % and yards. Richardson wins in TD's and ypc. Also keep in mind Richardson is off injured and last year was by far his best year, while last year was not Crowder's best year.

 

 

The past does not always dictate the future.

People change. Players change.

I can understand the circumstances causing you to feel hesitant to be confident. That's understandable, and your right to an opinion.

But to approach it as if there's virtually zero chance of improvement, simply based on 1 or 2 previous seasons. is a whole other story.

Quite often, the future does not mirror the past. There's so many other factors involved, other than history.

There's reasons why things occur in the past, and if something is done about those reasons, then guess what happens ? Change.

So it shouldn't sound crazy if someone says "I think this group will surprise some people" and be better.

Edited by Malapropismic Depository
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1 hour ago, Morneblade said:

 

Well, so far Docton hasn't done much in Jay's scheme. Crowder took a couple steps back, in Jays scheme. Richardson hasn't really done anything. Granted, not in Jay's scheme. What kinda bugs me about this is that you seem to think that you can plug anyone into "Jay's scheme" and they are going to be effective. and I don't think that is true. Docton sure hasn't. Crowder has been up and down.

 

 

Why? Doctson has done nothing. Richardson has done nothing. Crowder is the only one that has. Richardson's numbers are a little below Crowder's last year. Crowder wins in catches, catch % and yards. Richardson wins in TD's and ypc. Also keep in mind Richardson is off injured and last year was by far his best year, while last year was not Crowder's best year.

 

I generally agree with you, but if we’re setting a (understandably) low bar, it shouldn’t be too hard to surprise us... if that makes sense.  

 

One thing I really do like about this group is the dynamism.  Some quick guys, jump ball guys, good route runners, speedy guys, etc.  Should be fun (and perhaps challenging) for Gruden and Smith.  

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2 hours ago, Morneblade said:

 

Well, so far Docton hasn't done much in Jay's scheme. Crowder took a couple steps back, in Jays scheme. Richardson hasn't really done anything. Granted, not in Jay's scheme. What kinda bugs me about this is that you seem to think that you can plug anyone into "Jay's scheme" and they are going to be effective. and I don't think that is true. Docton sure hasn't. Crowder has been up and down.

 

 

Why? Doctson has done nothing. Richardson has done nothing. Crowder is the only one that has. Richardson's numbers are a little below Crowder's last year. Crowder wins in catches, catch % and yards. Richardson wins in TD's and ypc. Also keep in mind Richardson is off injured and last year was by far his best year, while last year was not Crowder's best year.

 

 I wouldn’t say Doctson has done nothing,the guy has only played one full season in the NFL,and it was a decent year for him. He had a little over 500 yards and 6 Tds.The catch he made against Seattle was maybe the  biggest play of the season for the Redskins. There is no reason to believe he won’t improve this season with Smith throwing him the ball. Crowder had  83 more yards total for the year than Richardson and they both scored  six touchdowns. Doctson,Crowder,and Richardson are all 3 young and should only get better. There is plenty of depth at the position as well. I am of the  opinion that the Skins have more than enough at the receiver position in this scheme and with this QB to be successful.If the injury bug stays away I think this will be a potent offense.

Edited by Tarpon75
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6 hours ago, Malapropismic Depository said:

 

The past does not always dictate the future.

People change. Players change.

I can understand the circumstances causing you to feel hesitant to be confident. That's understandable, and your right to an opinion.

But to approach it as if there's virtually zero chance of improvement, simply based on 1 or 2 previous seasons. is a whole other story.

Quite often, the future does not mirror the past. There's so many other factors involved, other than history.

There's reasons why things occur in the past, and if something is done about those reasons, then guess what happens ? Change.

So it shouldn't sound crazy if someone says "I think this group will surprise some people" and be better.

 

The past does not dictate the future, but it is a good way of predicting it. Also, it's possible that in a different circumstance, players can be worse, not better. I don't see a number 1 receiver on this team. I don't even see a good #2 receiver on the team. You MIGHT have a guy that can grow into that role, but we don't have one that has come anywere close to it yet.

 

5 hours ago, skinny21 said:

I generally agree with you, but if we’re setting a (understandably) low bar, it shouldn’t be too hard to surprise us... if that makes sense.  

 

One thing I really do like about this group is the dynamism.  Some quick guys, jump ball guys, good route runners, speedy guys, etc.  Should be fun (and perhaps challenging) for Gruden and Smith.  

 

What I don't see is dependable, consistent or tough, We don't have a guy to get tough yards, run across the middle, big bodied guys that get first downs. We don't have guys that are reliable.

 

4 hours ago, Tarpon75 said:

 I wouldn’t say Doctson has done nothing,the guy has only played one full season in the NFL,and it was a decent year for him. He had a little over 500 yards and 6 Tds.The catch he made against Seattle was maybe the  biggest play of the season for the Redskins. There is no reason to believe he won’t improve this season with Smith throwing him the ball. Crowder had  83 more yards total for the year than Richardson and they both scored  six touchdowns. Doctson,Crowder,and Richardson are all 3 young and should only get better. There is plenty of depth at the position as well. I am of the  opinion that the Skins have more than enough at the receiver position in this scheme and with this QB to be successful.If the injury bug stays away I think this will be a potent offense.

 

Richardson is injury prone. Doctson seems soft, and Crowder has been up and down. Crowder is really the only guy that that I think is a real NFL WR at this point. Richardson is fast, but he doesn't seem to actually seperate from coverage. Doctson is tall, but lean and doesn't really use his body to block out DB's. And he's not going to get tough yards over the middle.

 

Let's be honest, If we signed Dez Bryant tomorrow, he's head and shoulders above everyone else on the team. And he's not really a #1 WR anymore. I don't know if anyone on our squad is a top 50 WR, and to be blunt, we ought to have at least 1 on our team. The only way you can consider anyone really being dynamic at the position is adding TE, because we have both Davis and Reed, and both are probably better and more dangerous than any of our WRs. Loosing both Jackson and Garcon was big. Not bothering to really try to replace what they bring to the table was bigger. Richardson MIGHT become a poor man's DJ, but he's not close to that yet. No one on this team brings what Garcon brought. The only real hope is for Reed to stay healthy (cross your fingers), because he's the only receiving threat we have. Heck, I'd say that Chris Thompson is a bigger threat than our WR's right now. No, if we do damage in the passing game, it's probably not going to be from this WR group, it's going to have to be from the TE's or Thompson.

Edited by Morneblade

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31 minutes ago, Morneblade said:

 

The past does not dictate the future, but it is a good way of predicting it. Also, it's possible that in a different circumstance, players can be worse, not better. I don't see a number 1 receiver on this team. I don't even see a good #2 receiver on the team. You MIGHT have a guy that can grow into that role, but we don't have one that has come anywere close to it yet.

 

 

What I don't see is dependable, consistent or tough, We don't have a guy to get tough yards, run across the middle, big bodied guys that get first downs. We don't have guys that are reliable.

 

 

Richardson is injury prone. Doctson seems soft, and Crowder has been up and down. Crowder is really the only guy that that I think is a real NFL WR at this point. Richardson is fast, but he doesn't seem to actually seperate from coverage. Doctson is tall, but lean and doesn't really use his body to block out DB's. And he's not going to get tough yards over the middle.

 

Let's be honest, If we signed Dez Bryant tomorrow, he's head and shoulders above everyone else on the team. And he's not really a #1 WR anymore. I don't know if anyone on our squad is a top 50 WR, and to be blunt, we ought to have at least 1 on our team. The only way you can consider anyone really being dynamic at the position is adding TE, because we have both Davis and Reed, and both are probably better and more dangerous than any of our WRs. Loosing both Jackson and Garcon was big. Not bothering to really try to replace what they bring to the table was bigger. Richardson MIGHT become a poor man's DJ, but he's not close to that yet. No one on this team brings what Garcon brought. The only real hope is for Reed to stay healthy (cross your fingers), because he's the only receiving threat we have. Heck, I'd say that Chris Thompson is a bigger threat than our WR's right now. No, if we do damage in the passing game, it's probably not going to be from this WR group, it's going to have to be from the TE's or Thompson.

Dez is the last thing this team needs. His production seems to be declining every year anyway.You’re talking about three guys that have been in the league A total 10 years between them when you mention Crowder,Richardson,and Doctson.One or all 3 of them may turn out to be above average players. There is a very good chance that oneof them turns out to be a star.  There is also a chance that Davis or Harris turn out better than you expect.  We haven’t even talked about T Quinn yet.I believe you are wrong in your  assessment. Time will tell.

Edited by Tarpon75
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1 hour ago, Tarpon75 said:

Dez is the last thing this team needs. His production seems to be declining every year anyway.You’re talking about three guys that have been in the league A total 10 years between them when you mention Crowder,Richardson,and Doctson.One or all 3 of them may turn out to be above average players. There is a very good chance that oneof them turns out to be a star.  There is also a chance that Davis or Harris turn out better than you expect.  We haven’t even talked about T Quinn yet.I believe you are wrong in your  assessment. Time will tell.

 

I actually like Harris, and think he should be playing more. He's one of the few guys that has good hands and will go over the middle. I don't think however, that one of those 3 has a very good chance to be a star. But I'll be blunt, there isn't a WR I see on this team that is going to do a whole lot IMO this year. Crowder might go back to 2016, and that would be great. But he's a slot guy, and not out there on every down. I really don't see Doctson or Richardson really doing much, other than an occasional nice play. I don't see Doctson or Richardson as something a DC needs to worry about. And while Dez's production is down, he's STILL better than anyone we have, and does a bunch of things no one does on our team. That's that part that is sad, and ageing vet on the sunset of his career is still better than all the young bucks on our team. TE is where the danger is going to come from in the passing game.

 

Ok, I'll say it. Anquan Bolton could probably start for us. ;)

Edited by Morneblade

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24 minutes ago, Morneblade said:

 

 

Ok, I'll say it. Anquan Bolton could probably start for us. ;)

 The way you make these receivers sound Michael Bolton could probably start.(JK) Anyway, I don’t care if the receivers are terrible and they hand the ball off to Guice 40 times a game as long as they have a winning season.I am pretty sure we can agree on that.

Edited by Tarpon75
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19 minutes ago, Tarpon75 said:

 The way you make these receivers sound Michael Bolton could probably start.(JK) Anyway, I don’t care if the receivers are terrible and they hand the ball off to Guice 40 times a game as long as they have a winning season.I am pretty sure we can agree on that.

If he's averaging 5.0 ypc, I'd LOVE it! :D

 

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I’m very concerned about the receivers outside of Crowder. 

 

I don’t think much of Doctson and think we overpaid for Richardson. 

 

Im usually not this type of fan but man, Gruden keeps talking about having to win now. You really want to rely on these guys to make a serious run at the playoffs??

 

...i wouldn’t be opposed to Dez...

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I'm not understanding the feeling that Doctson is soft? What has or hasn't he done to have this perception?  As a group the WR's may not keep D-Coordinators up at night but our TE does. Also, if teams want to play our receivers in man coverage because "they do not fear them" Alex Smith will have lanes to escape and run or  escape/scramble and get a receiver open.  

 

My concern on offense is more with the run game.

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3 hours ago, beachboy757 said:

I'm not understanding the feeling that Doctson is soft? What has or hasn't he done to have this perception?  As a group the WR's may not keep D-Coordinators up at night but our TE does. Also, if teams want to play our receivers in man coverage because "they do not fear them" Alex Smith will have lanes to escape and run or  escape/scramble and get a receiver open.  

 

My concern on offense is more with the run game.

 

I feel the same. Also we have Chris Thompson as an elite receiving threat out of the backfield. If Guice turns out to be above average in terms of receiving, and we can manage to stay healthy I think we have a really good receiving corps in general.

We have Doctson who is great with jump balls and always an option to just air it out to in man coverage. We have Crowder as a nice slot receiver and Richardson who can stretch the field with his speed. I would agree that none of them are elite receivers that you have to gameplan for, but all of them have a specific and different skill set which should help them to benefit from each other. Mix that with an elite TE in Reed (if healthy), Thompson from the backfield and a QB who is pretty mobile and that is a lot to handle for a defense in the passing game.

 

In theory this looks good. Let's see how it translates to the field. If Reed misses a lot of games again this definitely looks different, but we also might have a running game that is at least average for quite some time. And that could also open up room in the passing game.

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58 minutes ago, PapaLazarou said:

John Keim is trash. Can't wait for his ass to be booted. 

Hmm. What's your issue with Keim? I'm interested in hearing. I think he is neutral and reports things correctly but I was wondering if he is on the Redskins payroll because he is constantly fighting with fans which I consider unprofessional if he is paid by the organization.

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10 hours ago, Morneblade said:

 

What I don't see is dependable, consistent or tough, We don't have a guy to get tough yards, run across the middle, big bodied guys that get first downs. We don't have guys that are reliable.

 

 

 

Oh, I know.  Just pointing out that there are positives for this group.  Frankly, they’ve got a chance at being pretty significantly better than last year’s corp, and with a good ground game and defense, they could be more than enough.  

 

Another way to look at it - we have 3 guys (Thompson, Reed and Crowder) that you could argue are top 5 in their respective positions.  We also have two fairly legitimate deep threats in Doctson and Richardson (though consistency could be an issue there).  Add in Guice, Davis, and the wildcards - Harris, Quinn, etc., and it seems like we should be able to attack all levels of the field.  

 

Not sure if they can be a top passing offense (hopefully they don’t have to be though), but I do have faith they can at least be respectable.  The improvement to the defense and run game are going to be the more important keys to the season, IMO.  

 

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10 hours ago, Morneblade said:

 

The past does not dictate the future, but it is a good way of predicting it. Also, it's possible that in a different circumstance, players can be worse, not better. I don't see a number 1 receiver on this team. I don't even see a good #2 receiver on the team. You MIGHT have a guy that can grow into that role, but we don't have one that has come anywere close to it yet.

 

Let's be honest, If we signed Dez Bryant tomorrow, he's head and shoulders above everyone else on the team. And he's not really a #1 WR anymore. I don't know if anyone on our squad is a top 50 WR, and to be blunt, we ought to have at least 1 on our team. The only way you can consider anyone really being dynamic at the position is adding TE, because we have both Davis and Reed, and both are probably better and more dangerous than any of our WRs. Loosing both Jackson and Garcon was big. Not bothering to really try to replace what they bring to the table was bigger. Richardson MIGHT become a poor man's DJ, but he's not close to that yet. No one on this team brings what Garcon brought. The only real hope is for Reed to stay healthy (cross your fingers), because he's the only receiving threat we have. Heck, I'd say that Chris Thompson is a bigger threat than our WR's right now. No, if we do damage in the passing game, it's probably not going to be from this WR group, it's going to have to be from the TE's or Thompson.

 

I'm willing to wait a year and see what Alex Smith brings to our offense before I agree with you about our WR's potential.  For some reason I'm drinking the Alex Smith kool-aid and it taste good.

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2 hours ago, skinny21 said:

Oh, I know.  Just pointing out that there are positives for this group.  Frankly, they’ve got a chance at being pretty significantly better than last year’s corp, and with a good ground game and defense, they could be more than enough.  

 

Another way to look at it - we have 3 guys (Thompson, Reed and Crowder) that you could argue are top 5 in their respective positions.  We also have two fairly legitimate deep threats in Doctson and Richardson (though consistency could be an issue there).  Add in Guice, Davis, and the wildcards - Harris, Quinn, etc., and it seems like we should be able to attack all levels of the field.  

 

Not sure if they can be a top passing offense (hopefully they don’t have to be though), but I do have faith they can at least be respectable.  The improvement to the defense and run game are going to be the more important keys to the season, IMO.  

 

 

I'm interested in what is making you think that this group could be significantly better, considering that we've only added 1 WR to this group, and he has been anything but a world-beater.

 

2 hours ago, Ashburn Dave said:

 

I'm willing to wait a year and see what Alex Smith brings to our offense before I agree with you about our WR's potential.  For some reason I'm drinking the Alex Smith kool-aid and it taste good.

 

I'm interested in what you think Alex Smith will do to make this a better unit.

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1 hour ago, Morneblade said:

I'm interested in what you think Alex Smith will do to make this a better unit.

 

I really wanted to sign Kirk a couple of years ago but we know how that all turned out.  The price would have been right and he would have bonded more with his teammates.  Leadership has been lacking at our QB position for a while now and it wasn't all Kirk's problem either.  Management screwed that up when they did't sign him long term.  Yearly contracts have no advantage in my opinion unless it is only used once in a put up or shut up one year deal type contract.  Can't keep franchising the same player. 

 

Back to the point.  Everyone knows Alex is the starter for 2-3 years so you have that stability now.  This puts him and our WR's in a better position to succeed.

 

The other thing I'm reading is that Alex is making it a point to move around in team meetings so he can get to know all the players.  I don't think talent wise Kirk is any better than Alex so I see no reason why Alex can't put up Kirk number in this offense.

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2 hours ago, Morneblade said:

 

I'm interested in what is making you think that this group could be significantly better, considering that we've only added 1 WR to this group, and he has been anything but a world-beater.

 

No guarantees of course, but...

1.  More games from Thompson and Reed.  

2.  More experience/comfort for wrs Doctson, Harris and Davis. 

3.  A deep threat to pair with Doctson and to help open up the underneath stuff. 

4.  A back that might (should?) be more of a pass weapon on 1st and 2nd downs. 

 

Again, I think I’m not that far off from where you’re at actually - the lack of a do-it-all receiver, a guy to game plan around, plus the injury histories of Doctson, Reed, Richardson and Thompson, are concerning.  I do, however, feel there’s some potential and talent there as a group.  I don’t feel they’ll be able to carry the team (feel the same way about Smith), but I’m hopeful they can at least be pretty effective. 

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6 hours ago, skinny21 said:

No guarantees of course, but...

1.  More games from Thompson and Reed.  

2.  More experience/comfort for wrs Doctson, Harris and Davis. 

3.  A deep threat to pair with Doctson and to help open up the underneath stuff. 

4.  A back that might (should?) be more of a pass weapon on 1st and 2nd downs. 

 

Again, I think I’m not that far off from where you’re at actually - the lack of a do-it-all receiver, a guy to game plan around, plus the injury histories of Doctson, Reed, Richardson and Thompson, are concerning.  I do, however, feel there’s some potential and talent there as a group.  I don’t feel they’ll be able to carry the team (feel the same way about Smith), but I’m hopeful they can at least be pretty effective. 

 

The potential threat of Guice on the ground and a healthy o-line should give us the passing game boost that I doubt our WR talent will. I think Alex will be slightly lower in stats than Kirk but better under pressure on key downs. I don't know if we'll be better statistically in the passing game but I think being healthy and having a top talent at RB will mean we are a more successful offense overall.

 

To think that Cousins is getting Thielen and Diggs makes me realize how average the WRs are that Alex Smith is inheriting.

Edited by Chachie
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10 minutes ago, Chachie said:

 

 

To think that Cousins is getting Thielen and Diggs makes me realize how average the WRs are that Alex Smith is inheriting.

 

 

It's not that they're average. They just have question marks, either about their health or development

If we can stay healthy and our players continue to develop, the sum of our parts on offense will be great.

Instead of wishing we had 1 or 2 superstars, look at the whole picture.

I can see Smith spreading the ball around, and causing fits for defenses that way.

Edited by Malapropismic Depository
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I would say there is a pretty good chance that Crowder has a better year this year than  last. I think he is in a contact year and if he can stay healthy he could  have the season he was expected to have last year.          

  What could be an even larger factor in the success of the passing game is the fact that Smith has a history of not turning the ball over anywhere near the rate that Cousins did last season. He’s obviously better at  making things happen when the play breaks down. Those two factors should allow the receivers to make plays.

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