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Let's All Get Behind Alex Smith! Or Not!! (M.E.T.) NO kirk talk---that goes in ATN forum


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Another poster said something along these lines but i cant find it now to quote them. Even when Alex throws a long ball, its a conservative long ball.

 

If its a sideline ball, he puts it so there is 80% chance it goes out of bounds, 20% chance receiver catches it, 0% it drifts to far in and gets picks.

 

On go routes, its 80% chance he overthrows it, 20% chance receiver catches it.

 

Long ball - seam routes seems like he is most comfortable throwing. He can watch it develop and see it in front of him.

 

After 7 games, I am disappointed that Alex is more of a "see it, throw it" QB than I thought he would be. I really thought he would be a timing, throw to a spot, rhythm QB (like Kirk) but without as good of an arm but better at extending plays.

 

Im hoping that with Crowder out, Richardson limited in practice it will gt better with health and practice during the week.

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3 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

My main issue with some who defend him (granted a small group) is it comes off like they are selling we are winning because of him.

 

The two biggest reasons this is a 5-2 team are clear as hell to me. 

 

1. We are shutting down the best RBs in the game today on a consistent basis. Like every game no matter who they are against, the opposing RB is getting next to nothing on the ground. 

 

2. We no longer are employing a turnover prone QB. I posted this yesterday. One of the most consistent stats out there for the NFL that has not changed over the decades is how predictable wins are in this league. 80% of the time, the team that wins the turnover battle wins the game. Now if you refuse to see how Alex is a huge part of that for us then to me its pointless. He is not turning the ball over like Kirk did here the past several years. This is why the teams rallying around Alex. He isn't putting them in unwinnable situations. That's one of the reasons in the offseason I was so excited about Alex here. When your QB takes care of the football and doesn't turn it over every game becomes winnable. The players know this. And since the QB isn't costing them games that's why they are 5-2. If you can't see it then idk what to tell you. It's not a mystery why this is one of three guys who won 50 games the past 5 seasons. He is smart with the ball. And that means much more then some guy who is smart and reckless at the same time. 

 

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2 hours ago, Sandy Monk said:

 

That seems completely out of character for Smith, also.

 

He has stated many times over the years.. something to the effect of "no job is safe, and you have to go out every week and prove that you deserve the role."

 

Once he got that 71 mil guaranteed in his contract, they could do whatever they want.. bring in whomever they want. 

 

I got to see that in writing before I begin to even think that Alex said that is remotely true. Teams do not let players take them hostage like that. I think that's some BS cooked up by the anti Alex crowd that still want to see Colt McCoy play or wanted the team to give up years of draft picks to take one of the QBs last draft. Funny to me that if those beating the drum did get the shinny new QB they desire they wouldn't have gotten Payne and he's so far been the biggest reason the teams gone from the 32nd ranked running defense to the best in the NFL this year overnight. 

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11 minutes ago, Why am I Mr. Pink? said:

After 7 games, I am disappointed that Alex is more of a "see it, throw it" QB than I thought he would be.

 

After the years of SF's hefty PTSD, it's not a shock, but yes a disappointment. 

 

I am an optimist by nature, and expected more of him.. even with a less than expected support cast. After further growth with the Chiefs, I knew Washington didn't have the weapons.. but I still thought Alex would be more of a **** it, let it fly guy. 

 

He is not.. and they are 5-2.. so maybe that attitude would have been detrimental anyway? 

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The only thing I expect an improvement on from Alex is his accuracy. It's been terrible. Not only is he missing people, but even when the ball is caught, many times it's high, behind them, ect.

 

I've seen enough Alex Smith in the past to know he IS better than this. All the 2017 stuff, I knew that was not going to happen here. He's Mark Brunell, except Mark WOULD go deep at times. Anyway, I expected Smith to play like this, except for how inaccurate he has been. This should, and needs to get better.

 

I think one of the issues is that Alex is not a natural rhythm passer, and Gruden's offense is. Obviously, trying to add more RO/RPO stuff will help Alex, but how well does the rest of the team fit it? I'm not sure.

 

I think if Smith can get back to around 65% completion percentage, and get a little better on ball placement, that is what we need to hope for. And to be honest, I think if Alex can do that, it's going to make the offense good enough to do more than score 20 points. Maybe not 35, but 28. And with this defense, that is going to beat a lot of teams.

 

Basically if Smith continues to dink and dunk, just be more accurate with it, we could win the division and a playoff game. That is my hope for him. Be the 2016 version of himself. On this team, that would be enough to do some things we have not done in quite a while.

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4 minutes ago, bobandweave said:

 

I got to see that in writing before I begin to even think that Alex said that is remotely true. Teams do not let players take them hostage like that. I think that's some BS cooked up by the anti Alex crowd that still want to see Colt McCoy play or wanted the team to give up years of draft picks to take one of the QBs last draft.

Aren’t you most famous for your Cousins rants about how he held the team hostage, among other things?  But teams don’t let players hold them hostage? 

 

Personally, I don’t see either situation as holding a team hostage.  If Smith asked for that, it was well within his rights as he held the leverage in signing a LTD or not.

 

 

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2 minutes ago, HardcoreZorn said:

So is Alex Smith just getting lucky? He just keeps lucking into winning seasons with three different organizations and three head coaches and three different supporting casts? I am genuinely asking.

 

He IS a fortunate regular season QB. He IS a fortunate human being. He IS a very calculating QB that has had much reg. season success because of that calculation. 

 

He also IS a pretty UNlucky postseason QB. If that needs further explanation, I can try.. but my lazy nature resists. ? 

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1 hour ago, Alexa said:

The formula works to a point. It will be interesting to see how it will work against a really good offense like Atlanta. Cause we are not holding them to 13 points. They are going to put some points on the board. 

 

Same thing was said about the Panthers, and the Packers, and the Cowboys and about all of the teams they faced so far this season. Maybe give this narrative a rest or at least let it happen before pretending to know the future before it unfolds. 

 

Let me give you an example of what I mean

 

This week the #2 rated RB for daily fantasy football some places (draft app) was S. Barkley. He was pumped up by lots of the "experts" out there primed to have a "big game" against these guys. The week before it was Ezekiel Elliot. The week before it was the same narrative with Christian McCaffrey. Yet

 

Saquon Barkley 38 yards
Ezekiel Elliott 34 yards
Christian McCaffrey 20 yards
Aaron Jones 42 yards
David Johnson 37 yards
Mark Ingram 53 yards
Alvin Kamara 24 yards

 

Is what the best RB's in the league have done against this team. I'm sure this week the "experts" will ignore these stats and pump up the Falcons. The Falcons have no rushing game today so are an easy offense to game plan against, sell out to stop the pass and make the opposing RB beat them. Don't listen to the "experts" they are all fools to ignore this

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3 minutes ago, HardcoreZorn said:

So is Alex Smith just getting lucky? He just keeps lucking into winning seasons with three different organizations and three head coaches and three different supporting casts? I am genuinely asking.

That is a good damn question, the Alex Smith phenomenon is a head scratcher.  You cant take away the fact he wins, but its strange in how it happens.

 

 

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10 hours ago, -JB- said:

You see that dagger pick 6 Cousins threw Vs Saints?  That’s who he’s always been and always will be.  He’s gonna put up the big passing yardage numbers but he’s going to dagger you in big moments in big games.  Just like last season when he played inexplicably terrible against a Giants team that LAID DOWN.  

Did you see that he threw the ball exactly where it needed to be but Diggs stopped his route?  Have you not seen that Smith has gotten lucky with several dropped interceptions and recoveries of his 7 fumbles this season?  When the luck wears out, which it will, Smith won't be far behind Cousins in the TO column, but Cousins will at least play to win while Smith will play not to lose and leave tons of points on the field. 

 

If we make it to the playoffs, it will be 100% because of our Defense and running game, along with the unexpectantly weak schedule and division this year.  We will get embarrassed in the playoffs.  And, we get to pay him for another two years to boot!  Lucky us.  I guarantee you the next two seasons we will not be as lucky with health, weak division play, weak schedule, and opponents missing TO opportunities.  By then, some of you will come around and realize how bad Alex Smith is and the trade was to get him.  I'm sure some of you will still be touting that he needs more time, even after year 16.

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4 minutes ago, Taylor 36 said:

Did you see that he threw the ball exactly where it needed to be but Diggs stopped his route?  Have you not seen that Smith has gotten lucky with several dropped interceptions and recoveries of his 7 fumbles this season?  When the luck wears out, which it will, Smith won't be far behind Cousins in the TO column, but Cousins will at least play to win while Smith will play not to lose and leave tons of points on the field. 

 

If we make it to the playoffs, it will be 100% because of our Defense and running game, along with the unexpectantly weak schedule and division this year.  We will get embarrassed in the playoffs.  And, we get to pay him for another two years to boot!  Lucky us.  I guarantee you the next two seasons we will not be as lucky with health, weak division play, weak schedule, and opponents missing TO opportunities.  By then, some of you will come around and realize how bad Alex Smith is and the trade was to get him.  I'm sure some of you will still be touting that he needs more time, even after year 16.

 

“Failures are expected by losers...” ~ Joe Gibbs

 

#deliciousirony

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13 minutes ago, Sandy Monk said:

 

If you wouldn't mind, could you elaborate a bit on this?

 

Ok, I'll try.

 

With a lot of "traditional" NFL offenses, the passing game is a timing one. On a 3 step drop, the ball comes out when your heel hits the ground on your 3rd step, and you're throwing to a spot. Sometimes, the WR has not even come out of his break yet.

 

This is not something that Smith is comfortable with. It's not that he can't, he just doesn't trust it. That wasn't his game in college, and I don't think he ever really got to the point where he really trusted "the play" in the NFL. This is why he was let go from 2 different teams, and why coaches felt they had to incorporate schemes from his college days to make him a decent NFL QB.

 

Prototypical drop back QB's like say, P. Manning trust the play, and will throw to a spot expecting his guy to be there when the ball gets there. Alex doesn't. He needs to see them open.

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8 minutes ago, HardcoreZorn said:

So is Alex Smith just getting lucky? He just keeps lucking into winning seasons with three different organizations and three head coaches and three different supporting casts? I am genuinely asking.

 

lol NO. The issue is that there are casual fans out there who see some spectacular throws from one QB and think that's what they need to win today. Where as there is another crowd that understands that some QBs win because they simply don't throw those passes.

 

It's why a guy like Jamies Winston leads the league in INT's this year but another QB on the same team like Ryan Fitzpatrick makes the same team look great. One guys reckless one guys accurate. There is nothing more debilitating to a football team then a turnover prone QB. This team may not be as offensively potent today as they were last season but 1) They aren't going to turn the ball over like they did last season so who cares? When your not having wild swings caused by self implosion you don't need to be playing wreckless ball and 2) When this offense gets a lead they don't let it go. So far in the games they won they never trailed, in the games they lost they never held the lead. That's Alex Smith for you. Smart intelligent safe QB. He lets the others around him shine. And all that does is win

 

 

8 minutes ago, BatteredFanSyndrome said:

Aren’t you most famous for your Cousins rants about how he held the team hostage, among other things?  But teams don’t let players hold them hostage? 

 

Personally, I don’t see either situation as holding a team hostage.  If Smith asked for that, it was well within his rights as he held the leverage in signing a LTD or not.

 

If you think I'm "famous" for rants about Cousins pal you don't know me at all. And for that matter where is the proof that Alex did what your claiming he did to this team? I want to see it in writing. Please produce it. 

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That Deadspin article in the offseason had this part right...

 

"I can’t wait until Smith goes like 15-for-32 with 130 yards passing for zero touchdowns and zero interceptions, yet the Skins still win 16-14. Then, and only then, will Bruce Allen and the fanbase scream: “Kurt wasn’t a winner! Now we’ve got one!” The idiocy of this team and fanbase makes me sick."

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9 minutes ago, Taylor 36 said:

When the luck wears out, which it will, Smith won't be far behind Cousins in the TO column, but Cousins will at least play to win while Smith will play not to lose and leave tons of points on the field. 

 

 

Well, just as it would be nuts to expect Smith to become a gunslinger, it's similarly intellectually dishonest to make the above statement. There is nothing in either player's career that should lead you to believe that turnovers will be even close after a 16-game schedule. 

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5 minutes ago, Morneblade said:

 

Ok, I'll try.

 

With a lot of "traditional" NFL offenses, the passing game is a timing one. On a 3 step drop, the ball comes out when your heel hits the ground on your 3rd step, and you're throwing to a spot. Sometimes, the WR has not even come out of his break yet.

 

This is not something that Smith is comfortable with. It's not that he can't, he just doesn't trust it. That wasn't his game in college, and I don't think he ever really got to the point where he really trusted "the play" in the NFL. This is why he was let go from 2 different teams, and why coaches felt they had to incorporate schemes from his college days to make him a decent NFL QB.

 

Prototypical drop back QB's like say, P. Manning trust the play, and will throw to a spot expecting his guy to be there when the ball gets there. Alex doesn't. He needs to see them open.

 

Thanks. Really good. FWIW, I agree with it, and particularly that trust s not a strength of Alex Smith.

 

I don't think it an extreme stretch, and it's not unprecedented.. that this trust gets better, though. Just takes time. Takes healthy and quality targets. I watch many games each week and find myself drooling over weapons making plays that just don't happen much in the Washington games. 

 

Alex, already being new to system and lacking chemistry to less than grand weapons. I shouldn't be so shocked. 

 

I expect more. Expected more. I wanted "**** it Alex to show up in DC already." It has been opposite that. 

 

Which makes me want to gripe.... but then I look at the standings. Can't do it. 

 

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52 minutes ago, bobandweave said:

 

The two biggest reasons this is a 5-2 team are clear as hell to me. 

 

1. We are shutting down the best RBs in the game today on a consistent basis. Like every game no matter who they are against, the opposing RB is getting next to nothing on the ground. 

 

 

Agree with this point.

52 minutes ago, bobandweave said:

 

2. 80% of the time, the team that wins the turnover battle wins the game. Now if you refuse to see how Alex is a huge part of that for us then to me its pointless. He is not turning the ball over like Kirk did here the past several years.

 

 

to me the 2nd point is obvious, and IMO its not the one you mention.  Its not that Alex is not throwing INTs.  It's that dude below.  Heck the Vikings made the playoffs with Christian Ponder as their QB and yes the dude threw interceptions this year.  I've been screaming for a Rb for years -- I posted on one of the Qb threads that among the top playoff teams last year almost all of them had a top running game.

 

I get the value of not throwing interceptions but some are getting way carried away with it.  When we hand Alex the ball for example on the 35 yard line and we get pushed back and don't score before the half like the previous game.  Jay patting him on the back and saying good job -- Alex you did the most important thing that any coach wants from their QB, you didn't throw an interception.  Bravo.  Then Alex gets hugged on the side line for not throwing a pick?  Sarcasm-hyperbole not directed to you -- but to the over the top overemphasis of the not throwing a pick is the be all and end all.  You need a QB who can move the ball -- its not just about avoiding picks.  

 

Again if people want to argue that the better version of Alex is on the way.  I get the logic.  If people want to argue hey they are winning even without a prolific offense -- imagine when the offense clicks.  I get that, too.  But selling what we've seen so far is a bit wild to me.  And based on just about every beat reporters take from their sources -- the coaching staff and FO aren't pumping their fist about Alex's play and celebrating it but instead are concerned.  So I am pretty convinced that those who are selling this are oddly at odds with Jay and Doug among others.

 

peterson.thumb.jpg.271f577742569d945a1c85210103b5da.jpg

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8 minutes ago, PF Chang said:

That Deadspin article in the offseason had this part right...

 

"I can’t wait until Smith goes like 15-for-32 with 130 yards passing for zero touchdowns and zero interceptions, yet the Skins still win 16-14. Then, and only then, will Bruce Allen and the fanbase scream: “Kurt wasn’t a winner! Now we’ve got one!” The idiocy of this team and fanbase makes me sick."

 

Deadspin can get deez nuts.

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6 minutes ago, Sandy Monk said:

 

Thanks. Really good. FWIW, I agree with it, and particularly that trust s not a strength of Alex Smith.

 

I don't think it an extreme stretch, and it's not unprecedented.. that this trust gets better, though. Just takes time. Takes healthy and quality targets. I watch many games each week and find myself drooling over weapons making plays that just don't happen much in the Washington games. 

 

Alex, already being new to system and lacking chemistry to less than grand weapons. I shouldn't be so shocked. 

 

I expect more. Expected more. I wanted "**** it Alex to show up in DC already." It has been opposite that. 

 

Which makes me want to gripe.... but then I look at the standings. Can't do it. 

 

 

To your second point, while I think that sure, the more he plays in the system, the better he will feel, I don't think he's ever going to be a drop back passer. It's just not him. After 13 years in the league, that's not going to change.

 

The only think I did expect was that he ball placement would be better. So far it's been bad, and he's been inaccurate for what his past has shown. I do think that will get better, and I certainly hope it does. If he can improve that, I think we score more TD's and we become much tougher to beat.

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3 hours ago, OVCChairman said:

 

 

How much is on Alex, and how much is on the play design?  How many screens did we run yesterday?  How many times is the intermediate pass going to be designed with the receiver running TOWARD the sideline?  Why are we not designing more plays to get Thompson / Bibbs out in the flat in space... the way the Giants do with Barkley?   Alex has his fair share, but i do wonder how much is the playcall and the read within the offense.... 

 

I may be wrong, but I seriously doubt Gruden redesigned his offense to cater to Smith's strength and weaknesses.  While I'll question Gruden's situational play calling all day, nothing I've seen leads me to question the effectiveness of the scheme itself.  IF Smith was executing it to a satisfactory level, and guys still weren't getting open, would be one thing, but we're still seeing him acclimate himself to the offense.  

 

Alex Smith Week 8 Pass Chart

 

3 hours ago, JoeJacobyHOForRIOT said:

To Your second point of giving the guys a opportunity to catch the ball goes to my first point of Alex playing conservatively.  I'm not so sure we are going to win more games with a vastly improved passing game as crazy as that sounds. With a QB who slings the ball around squeezing it into tight windows comes the opportunity for more turnovers, just sayin. I feel like this, we are 5-2 and winning games just leave it alone. If we were 2-5, i would be all for changing things up. 

 

I just don't think the strategy of making Alex beat a defense, is going to be too hard for a good defense to execute, until he shows a willingness to at least try.  There's no reason that a good defensive team can't stack 8 in the box, and dare him to make one on one throws.  And if we're behind and Gruden characteristically abandons the run, all of the short stuff just feeds into the other team's strategy.  They've got a pretty easy upcoming schedule to figure it out, but in order for us to be competitive against the better teams, Smith needs to get the timing of routes down with his receivers.  

 

3 hours ago, dckey said:

I don't see this as the problem, outside of Richardson no one gets separation, look at every slant that Doctson caught he went down right away.  Why are we running Mo Harris on Jet sweeps is that really scaring anyone?  Look at the slant routes with other teams and watch how much separation the DB is from the WR.  I think Alex holds the ball to long because he is waiting on that separation, which is his fault also sometimes your not going to get that and you just have to let it go.  This is what Kirk was good at. 

 

Actually Doctson had the 2nd most separation on his caught passes yesterday (3.66 yards), trailing only Mo Harris (5 yards).  Richardson finished at the bottom of tracked WRs/TEs with 1.83 yards of separation.  (For reference, the league average is 2.79 yards)

 

https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/game-center

 

I think back to the catch where Richardson had to contort his body to come back to a ball...whether it was due to him stumbling, or a poor throw, or a combination of both...there was absolutely no way he was going to get YAC on that particular play.  Maybe I'm wrong, but I just don't remember there being very many plays where Smith is getting the ball to receivers in a rhythmic, timed fashion.  And these guys aren't going to get much separation, but getting the ball before a DB can recognize the route you're running is more of a contributor at this level to YAC, than actual separation on the route.  

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5 minutes ago, Morneblade said:

I don't think he's ever going to be a drop back passer. It's just not him. After 13 years in the league, that's not going to change.

 

What does this mean? How is a successful 13 yr vet QB in the pros... not a drop back passer? My head hurts. 

 

I agree that some.. too many.. throws make me instantly think "wtf?!?" 

 

but at some point, it occurs to me again.... new bunch.. many of which are young and inexperienced.. yadda yadda. Maybe they suck at being where the vet QB expects them to be? Is that not equally or more possible than the theory that he forgot suddenly how to be.. accurate?

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46 minutes ago, bobandweave said:

Again with the style points nonsense. Was it an INT? Nope not  at all. Was it this? 

So missing a wide open receiver by at least 5 yards is style points? He's a 14 years seasoned vet. That should not even happen.

 

47 minutes ago, bobandweave said:

Nope sure wasn't. And you know what? If Alex threw that ball it would have cost the Redskins the game too. But he didn't. And if that's winning some kinda argument against Alex Smith what is it your asking for? For him to throw garbage passes and cost the Redskins the games like Kirk did here all the time? You Kirk truthers should go check out what the Vikings fans are saying today about that guy. Or let me save you the time, you know the same messages said about Kirk here. Same pooh different toilet. 

So Alex is winning because the Giants DB doesn't know how to catch a ball?

That is scary thinking here.

And I'm no Kirk truthers or Alex haters. Put me in the Kleese category, I only care about Redskins, and not really who their QB is. I just expect them to produce a better product on the field.

 

47 minutes ago, bobandweave said:

Alex Smith has already beaten more NFC East teams then Kirk did here last season. Last season this team was 1-5 in the NFC East. This year the Redskins bested that after only 2 games.

I would rather say that the D did it...

We were 4-2 in 2015 and 3-3 in 2016. So what's the point in comparing with Kirk last year? You could have chosen 2015. Oh wait...

So you went with the stat that suited your argument, so that is irrelevant here.

 

47 minutes ago, bobandweave said:

Nothing is perfect but do try and act like you have been here before and recognize when this teams successful.

Well, I'm requoiting it, you said it:

4 hours ago, bobandweave said:

Alex is the perfect QB for this team,

You're the one calling it "perfect".

I'm expecting a bit more from something perfect. Because, so far, he definately is not.

 

55 minutes ago, bobandweave said:

These are rare moments to enjoy. If you can't enjoy it when the team is beating the odds I wonder if some of you could and would ever enjoy follow this team? If your answer to that is no then why bother with something you can't get any pleasure from? That's illogical to me. Enjoy the ride

You're mixing things here.

You can enjoy the ride, and still be critical of how your team played.

 

In fact, losers tends to contend themselves with what they did and sits here.

Winners go on with what went wrong and try to improve, even if they win.

 

You can lay yourself and drink your kool aid all you want, we're not winning because of Alex Smith. We're winning despise him being bad. Which is very telling of the rest of team. Now you can be fine with him and his play style so far. Good for you, I'm not. And I'm pretty sure Alex Smith isn't pleased with his play so far.

 

He started the game 11/12 then finished 9/20. And you're fine with that?

I'm not.

 

Am I happy that we won? Yes.

 

But I'm expecting more. And as I said here or there on this site, it's not a matter of "IF" he will get it to me, but more of a "WHEN".

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Just now, Sandy Monk said:

 

What does this mean? How is a successful 13 yr vet QB in the pros... not a drop back passer? My head hurts. 

 

I agree that some.. too many.. throws make me instantly think "wtf?!?" 

 

but at some point, it occurs to me again.... new bunch.. many of which are young and inexperienced.. yadda yadda. Maybe they suck at being where the vet QB expects them to be? Is that not equally or more possible than the theory that he forgot suddenly how to be.. accurate?

 

Smith has been a marginal QB most of his career. And his "success" has not been on what he has been able to do as a rhythm passer in the NFL, so lets clear that up. Dumping the ball off to Tyreek Hill and then he going 84 yards for a TD makes you look a lot better than you are.

 

Which is why you are seeing so many, as you call them "WTF" passes. Grudens system is a timing system. Reid was smart enough to completely divert his for one that Smith could run, which was based almost completely off of RO/RPO concepts, which is what he ran in college and made him the 1st pick in the draft. He was never a "drop back" passer.

 

As for targets, Davis, Reed, and Thompson are among the best in the league at their positions, why isn't he getting the ball to them more accurately?

This isn't just about WR (he's never used them as much as most QB's), it's overall. As I said, Alex is not a rhythm passer, so it's not like he's throwing the ball to spots. If he was throwing to spots, you'd see more INT's. That doesn't explain all the double clutches. That doesn't explain the happy feet. That doesn't explain a open WR, and Smith looking straight at him, Smith not throwing it.

 

What does is that the QB and the scheme are not a good fit. And since we're paying a QB $71 million guaranteed, that's a problem

 

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