Let's All Get Behind Alex Smith! Or Not!! (M.E.T.) NO kirk talk---that goes in ATN forum

[Morneblade]

11 minutes ago, Sandy Monk said:

 

Measuring a QB on wins alone is foolhardy, yes. You don't need to desperately maneuver through random stats to make that case known, lol.

 

As for Alex Smith, he's had that amazing w-l record throughout the consistent and steady last several years. That may not mean jack to you.. or for whatever bizarre reason you don't want it to reflect well of him.. but it means plenty to many others and it should. I don't give a crap what his early career was as he suffered through terrible rosters, coaches, and stability. 

 

The trend clearly shows a resilient QB that amazingly crawled through the terrible and actually became quite good. Not too many QBs can say that they have done the same or similar.. not like he has. 

 

I think you're just forgetting what the concession was. It wasn't your take above, which I agree with. 

 

It was the part about QBs carrying a bad team through SBs. It just doesn't happen, and it appeared that you backed away from your earlier statement about exactly that. 

 

Great QB's make everyone around them better though. They can make a decent team great, but now, they can't make a terrible team great. But I never said that.

 

But, if you look at Brady, he's had a lot of Defenses that have been really bad in terms of yards given up. They are usually pretty good in points (bend, don't break) but he's gotten to the SB, and won with a D that is ranted 25th or so. Now, is Brady going to take a team that gives up a ton of points and can't run to the SB? No, I'd bet against it. But can he take an average team, one that might go 8-8 with a guy like say Andy Dalton and win a SB with it? Yep.

[Sandy Monk]

15 hours ago, Morneblade said:

But Smith never had to put a bad team on his back, or a highly injured team and made them competitive.

 

THIS was exactly the quote from you we were discussing, FFS. This is what you said.

 

I then stated there are no QBs that win SBs like this. We just went through this. Now, if you want to throw a legendary Tom in, go for it. I don't think anyone's confusing Smith as elite.. so if you want to compare elite to diminish Smith? it's irrelevant. I don't feel even Tom does it all by himself, but go with it, sure.

 

To hell with it, I'm tired, lol. Tired of going back and forth with people "that like Smith, he's good".. but then go out of their way time and again to backhand or minimize him. I'd hate to see WTF you guys post when you don't like someone or think they're bad. 

[DJHJR86]

1 hour ago, Sandy Monk said:

As for Alex Smith, he's had that amazing w-l record throughout the consistent and steady last several years. That may not mean jack to you.. or for whatever bizarre reason you don't want it to reflect well of him.. but it means plenty to many others and it should. I don't give a crap what his early career was as he suffered through terrible rosters, coaches, and stability. 

 

The trend clearly shows a resilient QB that amazingly crawled through the terrible and actually became quite good. Not too many QBs can say that they have done the same or similar.. not like he has. 

 

If the Skins go 5-11 this year, does that mean that he's a bad quarterback all of a sudden?  Will that not reflect well of him or the team?  Same reasoning behind his first 7 seasons where he struggled.  "Terrible rosters, coaches, and stability" aka...bad teams.  He doesn't elevate bad teams.  Not many QBs do, but I think some people (especially on social media) have been reeeeeaally overselling his ability as a QB.  One stat they point to is his W-L record.  Which is ridiculous to me.  If he played for the Browns for the past 5 years and put up the same identical stats as he did in KC, but his record as a starter over that 5 year span was something like 27-53, would he be judged on the stats he produced or the team record?  

[GhostofAlvinWalton]

18 hours ago, Morneblade said:

 

that portray him as Tom Brady, with legs. And it's silly.

 

OMG...WTF happened to TB12's legs???????

[Temper11]

3 hours ago, DJHJR86 said:

 

1997-2001 seasons, which were considered his best, and one of which he "won" a Superbowl.  And why don't people look bring up Smith's 7 seasons prior to going to KC?  38-36-1 record as a starter.  Matt Ryan is 39-41 over that same 5 year span as Smith in KC.  Brees is 43-36.  

 

Point being, measuring a quarterback based off of wins is ridiculous and doesn't tell you anything about them.  

In 2001, Trent only had 4 starts.  1996 - 2000 is probably the most realistic comparison you can make in terms of "Games Played" in 5 consecutive seasons (giving Trent the benefit of including the year 2000 instead of 1995).  Trent went 42 and 29 those years (including post season) for a win% of 59%.  Smith in KC was 51 and 30 (including post season) for a win percentage of 63%.

 

However, in Trent's 5 year window, his passer rating was: 64.8, 82.8, 74, 75.8, 76.6.  Smith's passer rating during his KC years were 89.1, 93.4, 95.4, 91.2, and 104.7.  Trent's best year coming in 6pts lower than Smith's worst - statistically speaking.  Also, Trent through 77 TD's against 67 INT's for a TD/INT ratio of  1.14.  Smith, 102 TD's against 34 INT's for a TD/INT ratio of 3.

 

Smith might be the only quarterback in the history of the NFL, past, present and future, who is constantly and simultaneously compared to both Trent Dilfer and Tom Brady. 

 

... for what it's worth.

[Morneblade]

5 hours ago, Sandy Monk said:

 

THIS was exactly the quote from you we were discussing, FFS. This is what you said.

 

I then stated there are no QBs that win SBs like this. We just went through this. Now, if you want to throw a legendary Tom in, go for it. I don't think anyone's confusing Smith as elite.. so if you want to compare elite to diminish Smith? it's irrelevant. I don't feel even Tom does it all by himself, but go with it, sure.

 

To hell with it, I'm tired, lol. Tired of going back and forth with people "that like Smith, he's good".. but then go out of their way time and again to backhand or minimize him. I'd hate to see WTF you guys post when you don't like someone or think they're bad. 

 

Actually, there are people on this board that think he's elite. Then blow a gadget if someone says he's "good" or find issues with him. Hell, this conversation. started because the had the "best debut in 40 years of watching the redskins". So, yeah. We got those people.

 

As for someone that sucks, like I dunno, like Robert Kelley, I say he sucks, and that a old AP is a lot better player, even if AP might only be a "average" back, has lost a step and doesn't have the power he used to. I've even said that Smith might be a better fit than Cousins with the way the team is built right now. So, if that is minimizing, then I think you need relook at the definition. I just don't think he's elite. If you think that means I'm saying he sucks, that's on you.

 

3 hours ago, GhostofAlvinWalton said:

 

OMG...WTF happened to TB12's legs???????

 

Vince Wilfolk came to camp and ate them. Vince will eat anything.

4 hours ago, DJHJR86 said:

 

If the Skins go 5-11 this year, does that mean that he's a bad quarterback all of a sudden?  Will that not reflect well of him or the team?  Same reasoning behind his first 7 seasons where he struggled.  "Terrible rosters, coaches, and stability" aka...bad teams.  He doesn't elevate bad teams.  Not many QBs do, but I think some people (especially on social media) have been reeeeeaally overselling his ability as a QB.  One stat they point to is his W-L record.  Which is ridiculous to me.  If he played for the Browns for the past 5 years and put up the same identical stats as he did in KC, but his record as a starter over that 5 year span was something like 27-53, would he be judged on the stats he produced or the team record?  

 

Exactly.

[Sandy Monk]

3 minutes ago, Morneblade said:

 

Actually, there are people on this board that think he's elite. Then blow a gadget if someone says he's "good" or find issues with him. Hell, this conversation. started because the had the "best debut in 40 years of watching the redskins". So, yeah. We got those people.

 

 

Who?  

 

If one dude thought it was the best debut in 40 years for a new QB in a preseason opening drive, so what? 

 

See, this is what I'm talking about. It's like one side of the mouth says, "I like him, he's good, yadayada" but then there's this weird need that follows to then challenge or find ways to lessen someone's opinion of him. It's fascinating. There's clearly more going on in here.

[HOF44]

3 hours ago, Temper11 said:

 

 

Smith might be the only quarterback in the history of the NFL, past, present and future, who is constantly and simultaneously compared to both Trent Dilfer and Tom Brady. 

 

... for what it's worth.

Hold up people compare Alex Smith to Tom Brady?? Well I guess you can compare anyone to him.  But he’s not even in the same conversation. 

[Morneblade]

2 minutes ago, Sandy Monk said:

 

Who?  

 

If one dude thought it was the best debut in 40 years for a new QB in a preseason opening drive, so what? 

 

See, this is what I'm talking about. It's like one side of the mouth says, "I like him, he's good, yadayada" but then there's this weird need that follows to then challenge or find ways to lessen someone's opinion of him. It's fascinating. There's clearly more going on in here.

 

There is actually a group of people, but I'm not going to name names. And it does go deeper. But it's just stuff that happens on message boards.

 

And, to be ****ing blunt, if someone, and I don't care who it is, says something that I think it wrong, and I think there are real reasons for them being wrong, I'm going to say something. It's a message board. Like if someone says that Kerrigan is HoF material right now, or that Kerrigan is the worst ****ing OLB we're ever had, I'm going to say something. Because I think both statements are ****ing wrong. He's a really good player IMO. And if you want to call it a "weird need", that's fine. I disagree, but you can think that.

[Sandy Monk]

3 minutes ago, HOF44 said:

Hold up people compare Alex Smith to Tom Brady?? Well I guess you can compare anyone to him.  But he’s not even in the same conversation. 

 

They do it when they are desperate for a QB comparison that works to their agenda in minimizing Smith, yes. All the time. 

 

... and to be *****ing blunt, there are a lot of obvious patterns unfolding in here. 

[HOF44]

1 minute ago, Sandy Monk said:

 

They do it when they are desperate for a QB comparison that works to their agenda in minimizing Smith, yes. All the time. 

 

... and to be *****ing blunt, there are a lot of obvious patterns unfolding in here. 

There have been patterns to follow in here here for years. 

[Morneblade]

7 minutes ago, HOF44 said:

There have been patterns to follow in here here for years. 

 

It's like patterns within patterns within patterns. Deeps State, Illuminati stuff.

[BatteredFanSyndrome]

@Sandy Monk it sounds like you are looking for a pep rally.

 

There are plenty of places to get that vibe online if that’s what you’re looking for.

 

But folks have been debating and arguing about the Redskins here for a long time.  That’s not going to change any time soon.

[Sandy Monk]

Not at all dude. I don't even mind ignorant hate, so long as it's overt, and not cloaked in deception. 

[KillBill26]

https://www.google.com/amp/amp.si.com/nfl/2018/08/18/chiefs-betting-preview-nfl-win-total-over-under-odds

 

Pretty interesting stats in here, but the main takeaways are:

 

1. Alex has a very low interception rate (1.35 %), and in KC he won 77% of the games where he didn't throw a pick.

 

2. Alex does a great job giving his defense good field position. In 2017, chiefs ranked third in this regard.

 

3. Kc defense was abysmal last year. I know some think everything around smith has to be excellent for him to win, but not the case.  (That being said, I think we'd all agree the weapons around him in KC were superior to what he has this year, so he will not have as much help from the skills players like he had last year.)

 

While i agree that he probably doesn't have what it takes to carry a bad team, I also think he has played a vital role in his team's success; it's not just everyone else executing and he is merely asked to not screw anything up.  I know others have disproven the knock on him that he can't throw the ball down the field.  I think there is a lot to be excited about as far as how Alex will succeed with this team.  He has had winning records for the last seven seasons, including his first (transition) year in KC.  And those losing records in SF were on some pretty terrible all around teams. 

 

 https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/S/SmitAl03.htm

 

One of the biggest concerns I have for the offense this year is punching it in while in the red zone.  I know we have been wondering is it due to jay or Kirk, but bad news, KC ranked 29th in red zone touchdown percentage last year.

 

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/red-zone-scoring-pct?date=2018-02-05

 

I feel if our front seven stays healthy, and jay/Alex improve the red zone offense, we are battling for a playoff spot well into December. 

[BatteredFanSyndrome]

2 minutes ago, Sandy Monk said:

Not at all dude. I don't even mind ignorant hate, so long as it's overt, and not cloaked in deception. 

 

I take it you have trust issues.

 

But I’m not quite sure why you believe folks are being ‘deceptive’.  What would anyone stand to gain from it?

 

I think what you’re seeing and not liking are folks taking some of the ‘ignorant love’ to task. 

 

 

[Sandy Monk]

18 minutes ago, BatteredFanSyndrome said:

 

I take it you have trust issues.

 

But I’m not quite sure why you believe folks are being ‘deceptive’.  What would anyone stand to gain from it?

 

I think what you’re seeing and not liking are folks taking some of the ‘ignorant love’ to task. 

 

 

haha, fun spin job, go with it!  

A fan of the same team taking someone to task for being complimentary of the same team's QB, oh the horror! 

[BatteredFanSyndrome]

22 minutes ago, Sandy Monk said:

 

haha, fun spin job, go with it!  

A fan of the same team taking someone to task for being complimentary of the same team's QB, oh the horror! 

 

I know you haven’t been here long but many of the same folks being complementary these days weren’t so much for prior QBs.  It was to the point last year where every throw or soundbite was an indictment on Cousins.  Wait until you see a regular season Gameday thread.  All this positivity can go down the drain quick with a bad play.

[Sandy Monk]

If it is what I am expecting, no thanks, I'll click out. Been there done that, and I don't want my Sundays ruined by lousy, bitter fans. 

[skinny21]

43 minutes ago, Sandy Monk said:

If it is what I am expecting, no thanks, I'll click out. Been there done that, and I don't want my Sundays ruined by lousy, bitter fans. 

Game Day Thread is lousy with bitter fans, so yeah, I’d avoid it if I were you.

 

 

As for this thread, it’s a weird continuation of the Cousins thread, the Griffin thread (and probably keeps going back, though I can’t recall at this point).  I find myself siding with those that I feel are trying to bring a dose of ‘reality’ to the discussion about Smith, so I’m biased.  However, I do feel that virtually everyone agrees that Smith is a good qb.  IMO he’s easily top 15, probably top 12, and last year especially showed me he could crack the top 10.  

 

Not that you asked, but for me personally, although I’ve been snakebit more than I care to remember, I have a good deal of optimism for this year.  I’m one who hated the trade, like (but don’t love) Smith, yet I think there’s a chance we make some noise this season.  

 

Injuries aside, I think our run game will be better than 20th ranked and possibly/probably top 15, and our D will be top 15 and possibly/probably crack the top 10.  I actually like our pass catchers in terms of how they fit with Smith (and Gruden’s system) - I don’t think we have a weak link, which is actually good for someone that spreads the ball around, (even if we lack a true #1 wideout).  

 

So ironically, even though I hate when people point to wins and losses to judge a qb, I’ll be very happy with Smith if the team is winning, regardless of his stats... and I think it’s a distinct possibility we do win a lot of games.  

 

One last thing, I get the impression that you think people are dogging posters for their positivity and optimism.  From my perspective, as mentioned above, the rebuttals have been to comments like “he’s an excellent qb”, “he’s clearly better than Cousins”, “his best days are ahead of him”, “he’s great, just look at all those wins!”   Not to comments like “I think he will be a great fit”, “he’ll give us a good chance to win”, etc.  

 

Not really sure why I’m going over this, it’s been hashed out in detail, lol.  Guess I’m just a sucker.

 

Ok, seriously, one last thing - I fight with myself over how good this team will be. Love the talent in certain areas, I have questions about certain positions (RB, LG, S, corner, and wr), we have serious injury concerns, etc.  So, it’s only natural others feel the same way (or maybe natural that I feel others feel the same way, lol).  Factor in the numerous letdowns over the years, it’s only natural (IMO) that people warring with themselves are also going to war with others.  

Or maybe that’s just my inate “Devil’s Advocate” mentality shining through.

 

[DJHJR86]

14 hours ago, Temper11 said:

In 2001, Trent only had 4 starts.  1996 - 2000 is probably the most realistic comparison you can make in terms of "Games Played" in 5 consecutive seasons (giving Trent the benefit of including the year 2000 instead of 1995).  Trent went 42 and 29 those years (including post season) for a win% of 59%.  Smith in KC was 51 and 30 (including post season) for a win percentage of 63%.

 

However, in Trent's 5 year window, his passer rating was: 64.8, 82.8, 74, 75.8, 76.6.  Smith's passer rating during his KC years were 89.1, 93.4, 95.4, 91.2, and 104.7.  Trent's best year coming in 6pts lower than Smith's worst - statistically speaking.  Also, Trent through 77 TD's against 67 INT's for a TD/INT ratio of  1.14.  Smith, 102 TD's against 34 INT's for a TD/INT ratio of 3.

 

Smith might be the only quarterback in the history of the NFL, past, present and future, who is constantly and simultaneously compared to both Trent Dilfer and Tom Brady. 

 

... for what it's worth.

 

In other words...you cannot measure a QB based off of win percentage.  Which was my entire point.

 

10 hours ago, Sandy Monk said:

... and to be *****ing blunt, there are a lot of obvious patterns unfolding in here. 

 

What's wrong with people who aren't overly excited about Alex Smith?  That's not a weird pattern.  That's an opinion.  

[Sandy Monk]

31 minutes ago, DJHJR86 said:

 

In other words...you cannot measure a QB based off of win percentage.  Which was my entire point.

 

What's wrong with people who aren't overly excited about Alex Smith?  That's not a weird pattern.  That's an opinion.  

 

Again, I agree it's not wise to judge a QB on w-l record alone, but when a QB is winning like that for so many recent, successive years? it is both notable and indicative of the QB being at minimum good. 

 

I can't tell if you are deliberately twisting my meaning, or are having trouble really understanding it. I say that not as a jerk, but as someone that doesn't know you well enough to discern which. So on this, again, I don't take issue with anyone that thinks Smith is just a good QB and not great. That's pretty well where I am with him also. The issue I had been honing in on was the constant going out of one's way to challenge a simple, even if mildly overstated compliment of our QB. That tends to show a pattern of conflict with prior statements of support, is all. 

 

If I constantly state how much I think America is good, but then spend the rest of the time trashing this and that about America, it would tend to make people wonder if I was MPD or not really in touch with (or honest about) what I actually do or do not like. That's the feeling I have been trying to express. 

 

 

Oh, and really liked your post @skinny21.  

[DJHJR86]

2 hours ago, Sandy Monk said:

Again, I agree it's not wise to judge a QB on w-l record alone, but when a QB is winning like that for so many recent, successive years? it is both notable and indicative of the QB being at minimum good. 

 

Who has said otherwise in this thread?  No one has said that he isn't good.  Some people think we've downgraded at the position.  

[Sandy Monk]

6 minutes ago, DJHJR86 said:

 

Who has said otherwise in this thread?  No one has said that he isn't good.  Some people think we've downgraded at the position.  

 

Oh, everyone SAID? Oh well, then clearly, everything's just peachy now. How nice. I really must get this wild paranoia under control!

 

Thank you, good friend that likes Smith and thinks he is good.  

[DJHJR86]

5 minutes ago, Sandy Monk said:

 

Oh, everyone SAID? Oh well, then clearly, everything's just peachy now. How nice. I really must get this wild paranoia under control!

 

Thank you, good friend that likes Smith and thinks he is good.  

Uh...okay?