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Let's All Get Behind Alex Smith! Or Not!! (M.E.T.) NO kirk talk---that goes in ATN forum


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3 hours ago, HOF44 said:

I think unless Guice can go off for 1300+ rushing Smith is gonna have a long year in DC.

Yeah, need a good running game to cover up the limited talent we have in our receiving corp.

 

But I'm all in for Alex!!! 

Screw Captain Kirk!!!!!

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Not sure if this was brought up before, but KC has had some of the worst WR combos in the NFL before Hill. Outside of Kelce who really only stepped it up the last 2 years, Smith has been playing with a very weak WR core and was still able to produce consistently. IMO, with a healthy Reed (I know a big if) Skins have an equal to or better Offensive weapons than Chiefs had last year.

 

2016

WR: Jeremy Maclin, Rod Streater.

WR: Albert Wilson, Chris Conley.

Kelce - very good

Maclin hit a major decline

While Chip Kelley made some bad personnel decisions overall, he was right on Maclin. Maclin has been enj prone and largely terrible after 2015

2015

WR: Jeremy Maclin, - was good

WR: Albert Wilson, 

TE: Kelce - was just OK

2014

WR: Dwayne Bowe

WR: Donnie Avery

TE: Kelce - Rookie - was just OK

2013

WR: Donnie Avery

WR: Devon Wiley

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4 hours ago, HOF44 said:

Without a GREAT rushing performance from Guice I see him hurt by the halfway point.  

The OL protected the previous QB pretty good without any running game 1st & 2nd down. He survived and Alex is more mobile and elusive. Gruden won't make the RO a steady diet for obvious reasons..Good Receiving game and like you said an upgraded running game to complement Thompson. 1300 yards is not necessary with the other weapons they have. a 1300 yard season = deep into the playoffs IMHO

 

Injury is the key..can the weapons and OL stay on the field

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1 hour ago, Califan007 said:

Is there a reason you only seem to notice the "Alex Smith defense counsel" posts as worthy of questioning?

Where exactly am I questioning anything?  It was an observation.  It's that time of year where everyone gets to have a correct opinion because nothing has happened yet.  Like I said - I get it, it's the offseason and fans want to believe.  I'm not questioning that.  But there is certainly a connection to the Alex Smith defense counsel and those that tend to hate on Cousins and back the FO on the regular.  Not everyone but significant enough to identify.  DJHJR86 makes a valid point in regards to those tending to really pound the Alex Smith drum are those that disliked Cousins and those underrating him tend to be folks that think the organization squandered Cousins.  I think that's a fair assessment.

 

Personally, I really don't know where I fall in the mix.  I have nothing against Alex Smith.  I don't fault him for what led to or what it took to get him here.  But all the with/without Hill comparisons aren't really swaying me one way or another.  I don't have a strong belief in regards to what happens with him and the offense this season at all, good or bad.  I do believe the addition of Guice and Richardson should be of great service to him living up to the expectations.  But I still see myself watching this season without any real expectations.

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23 minutes ago, BatteredFanSyndrome said:

It's that time of year where everyone gets to have a correct opinion because nothing has happened yet. 

 

This is really what its about.  Going to take some winning before most see the upcoming season as anything more than a chance to tally up points at the end and see who was most rightest.  Here's hoping for it...

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8 hours ago, NoCalMike said:

Alex Smith's deep ball production improved with Tyreek Hill? Wow, in-depth analysis there.  I am willing to bet Cousins's deep ball improved when D-Jax was in Washington too?

 

So let me try to put the pattern together as an amateur msgboard sports journalist.  Having a speedy WR that can take the top off a defense, improves a QB's deep ball production!

 

I was listening to Craig Hoffman talk about this last week he said he talked to Jordan Reed about D. Jax and he told him D. Jax in the lineup made an insane difference as to how they covered him -- much easier for the underneath guys like him and Crowder because the free safety was attuned to shading the coverage towards D. Jax.  So they are hoping Richardson brings that dynamic back.  I think that's interesting especially in the context of it came out that Jay wanted to retain D. Jax in the previous off season but the FO disagreed apparently.

 

As for Alex Smith.  The Chiefs I read somewhere had the best separation numbers for any WR corp last year.  You can see in the highlights -- T. Hill is now the NFL's new Desean Jackson, best deep threat in the league.  When he gets open, he really gets open.  That helped Kelce, Wilson also have good years.  K. Hunt monster year.  I agree that the top 100 player list is a lot about hype but it shows the players know those guys are good -- Kelce #24 top player, Hunt #33, Hill #40.

 

I just saw MVP odds predictions on twitter from odds makers.  If I recall Kirk is 22-1.  Alex is 60-1.  I like Kirk better than some on this thread.  Do I think he's better than Alex -- yeah I do.  But not by a heck of a lot.  So I got no problem with anyone that wants to argue that Alex has an edge.  I do think though the MVP odds make sense to me -- and that's not because Kirk is three times the QB Alex is but because the difference in supporting casts.  IMO either Vikings WR would be by a mile the #1 receiver here.  Though I hold out some hope for Doctson and like Richardson. 

 

My point is I think who ends up better this season Alex or Kirk isn't so much about them but about:  D. Cook versus Guice.   Thielen versus Doctson.  Diggs versus Crowder.  Rudolph versus Reed.   I know some people take the idea that QBs need big time play makers as a condemnation of the QB.  But to me its not so even a little bit, its just IMO how you build a winning roster.

 

Whenever I see over the top hype about Alex -- I got two thoughts typically.  1.  Hope people aren't setting him up for a fall.  I do see some overlap on twitter from professed Kirk haters and over the top Alex is a top QB rap.  I recall some of those people celebrating on twitter and goofing on Kirk being in the 90s in the top 100 list -- obviously assuming then Alex would be ahead of him.  Sheehan talked about this on his show -- all those people goofing on Kirk's rating who called into his show got quiet last week.  So I think for Alex -- I think the he's everything Kirk isn't and more even though is a fun point for some -- I think it sets up Alex for a fall eventually.  And that's not because I think Alex isn't in the same conversation with Kirk as a QB.  But because I think the rap that he's a mile better to me is wildly off.    2.  My other thought is boy i hope Jordan Reed is healthy.  The passing game for the moment really just has one superstar and that's him.  Without him, I don't think Alex has anywhere near what he had in KC.  Though I do think Guice could be Hunt level good or even better.

 

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@SkinsinparadiseGood points. 

 

I’m hopeful that what Smith will have going for him, in terms of pass catchers, is dynamism.  Thompson, Guice, Doctson, Reed, Davis (the receiver as well), Crowder, Harris - it’s a group with a blend of speed, shiftiness, size, and hands.  

 

Discounting the numerous turnovers Crowder had a hand in, he, Reed, and Thompson are all probably around top five at their positions.  It’s true though that Reed is the closest we have to a truly top weapon*, so I see your point about him staying healthy.   

 

*There’s Guice too, but 1. I think it’s too early to guess what he’ll bring to the team as a receiver, and 2. I don’t see him getting more than a few looks per game in the pass game.  

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1 hour ago, skinny21 said:

@SkinsinparadiseGood points. 

 

I’m hopeful that what Smith will have going for him, in terms of pass catchers, is dynamism.  Thompson, Guice, Doctson, Reed, Davis (the receiver as well), Crowder, Harris - it’s a group with a blend of speed, shiftiness, size, and hands.  

 

This is what we had in '16. The biggest difference is Garcon was more a tough SOB, do it all type whereas Doctson is supremely talented but needs refining and on the quieter side. I still remember a pre game quote from Mike Zimmer though when we played the Vikings that year. Something to the effect of "man you guys are pain in the ass to stop offensively this year." And it wasn't because we have 1 stud guy but because everyone's games complimented each other so well. It was beautiful to watch really, any guy could take over a game. I think that's why they wanted Richardson so badly. He will shift Doctson into his more natural role and then presumably take the top off to make Reed, Thompson, Crowder thrive. A lot of question marks but a lot of exciting possibilities as well.

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10 hours ago, HardcoreZorn said:

This is what we had in '16. The biggest difference is Garcon was more a tough SOB, do it all type whereas Doctson is supremely talented but needs refining and on the quieter side. I still remember a pre game quote from Mike Zimmer though when we played the Vikings that year. Something to the effect of "man you guys are pain in the ass to stop offensively this year." And it wasn't because we have 1 stud guy but because everyone's games complimented each other so well. It was beautiful to watch really, any guy could take over a game. I think that's why they wanted Richardson so badly. He will shift Doctson into his more natural role and then presumably take the top off to make Reed, Thompson, Crowder thrive. A lot of question marks but a lot of exciting possibilities as well.

I suspect that if Guice is the threat we hope, the area were the safety should be will be wide open.

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14 hours ago, HardcoreZorn said:

This is what we had in '16. The biggest difference is Garcon was more a tough SOB, do it all type whereas Doctson is supremely talented but needs refining and on the quieter side. I still remember a pre game quote from Mike Zimmer though when we played the Vikings that year. Something to the effect of "man you guys are pain in the ass to stop offensively this year." And it wasn't because we have 1 stud guy but because everyone's games complimented each other so well. It was beautiful to watch really, any guy could take over a game. I think that's why they wanted Richardson so badly. He will shift Doctson into his more natural role and then presumably take the top off to make Reed, Thompson, Crowder thrive. A lot of question marks but a lot of exciting possibilities as well.

 

I was more in the keep D-Jax camp over Garcon but I admit I didn't realize how much that dude would be missed.  Cooley likes to say our WRs couldn't really beat man to man coverage last year and on that front Garcon + Jackson by a mile over last years version of Doctson and Pryor/Crowder. 

 

I was enthused about the Doctson pick when it went down -- I do have hope for him and my gut is he succeeds but I don't like the fact that we have so many quiet dudes on offense and he's obviously in that mix.  I think we need a bit more of a mix of personalities.   Not to make everything about Guice :) but one of the reasons why I liked him last fall is you can see besides being a spark on the field -- when the camera panned to the sidelines you can see at times Guice is just off the charts energy with his teammates.  Garcon's emotion I think was missed as much as his play.  Hopefully Guice replaces that and more.  I don't know much about Richardson's personality but I notice he does have some ham to him when he makes plays.

 

Jordan Reed, Thompson, Kelley, Doctson, Crowder -- all super quiet, subdued types.  And I've said before hey Art Monk was a stud so you don't need to be a personality to win.  But Gibbs himself once said something like that he likes to have a mix of personalities and some guys who are character types.

 

As Craig Hoffman recently said, Alex is a nice guy but might be one of the most boring guys to talk to in football -- he joked if you thought Kirk could be boring, spend some time with Alex.   So Alex won't be the energizer bunny type in the huddle or the sidelines -- that's not his rep.  He's more of a Joe Montana -- cool, calm presence which is good, too. 

 

I caught up with a Cooley segment just now about the WR blocking and its not just the TEs who aren't good blockers but the WRs aren't hot at it, too.  Cooley's thought is blocking from the receivers is a lot about spunk and attitude.  I recall that was one of Garcon's things, too -- big time blocker.

 

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Cousins fumbled the ball 31 times in the last 3 years as the starter. That is an insane amount and he fumbled 13 times this past year alone. That's more and more chances to lose the ball, that's sacks, and it's loss yardage. You add in his interceptions and compare those with Smith and how he protects the ball and that will be huge for us this next year.

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27 minutes ago, MisterPinstripe said:

Cousins fumbled the ball 31 times in the last 3 years as the starter. That is an insane amount and he fumbled 13 times this past year alone. That's more and more chances to lose the ball, that's sacks, and it's loss yardage. You add in his interceptions and compare those with Smith and how he protects the ball and that will be huge for us this next year.

Good post, didn’t realise Kirk lost the ball that many times. Should be a major improvement in that area with Smith,that has to help things quite a bit.

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I don't think Alex is a great QB but I do think he's good.  But, he is great at 2 things -- running the ball and avoiding turnovers.    Does that translate to more wins?  Maybe.  Alex in his long career only had 2 seasons where he threw for over 3500 yards.   He has almost always had a top 10 running game.   The offense typically isn't on his shoulders to the same degree that Jay puts it on his QBs.  So to that point the two wildcards for me relate to both of Alex's strengths.

 

A.  Avoiding turnovers -- its easier to do when you aren't throwing the ball as much and defenses are geared to stop the running attack -- see Dak Prescott.   Jay's offense is usually puts a bigger burden on the passer. 

 

B.  Alex's running.  I presume that if running backs lose a step running the ball in their 30s, ditto Qbs?

 

Kirk threw the ball 225 times more than Alex in the last 3 years.  In Alex Smith terms that almost like 8 games worth of more passes for Kirk. 

 

This isn't me going tit for tat Kirk versus Alex.  I've said many times I think both guys are close and don't have an issue with anyone on either side of the spectrum on who is better.  My point here is this is what I'd be fascinated to see -- Alex chucking the ball all around where the passing game is the prime thing that opponent's try to stop.  And will the dude still have wheels as he hits his mid 30s?

 

Last year was Alex's career year and if that's who he is and is just getting better than I think he answers the call on both of these variables.  He did throw a lot of passes last season.   And then to me the question is for how long?  Hopefully its like Brady-Brees.  I am not really landing on a spot one way or another on this.  I got no idea. 

 

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12 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Alex in his long career only had 2 seasons where he threw for over 3500 yards.   He has almost always had a top 10 running game.   The offense typically isn't on his shoulders to the same degree that Jay puts it on his QBs.  So to that point the two wildcards for me relate to both of Alex's strengths.

 

Kirk threw the ball 225 times more than Alex in the last 3 years.  In Alex Smith terms that almost like 8 games worth of more passes for Kirk. 

 

I really doubt this will be an issue. Last season, Cousins had 540 attempts in 16 games (34 attempts per game) and Smith had 505 attempts in 15 games (34 attempts per game).  The Chiefs actually ranked 12th in passing play percentage for the season, while the Redskins ranked 15th.  The main reason the Chiefs threw more is because KC's defense was a bottom 3 defense last year (before that, they usually had at least an above average defense), so Alex was forced to shoulder more responsibility, which led to better bulk stats while still maintaining excellent efficiency, leading to a career year. 

 

 

 

I posted my favorite take on this (from Keim) earlier in the thread, but I'll post it again, as I believe it is such an underrated aspect of a team's record by year's end.

 

Quote

 

Smith has long been known for not turning the ball over. In fact, in the past five years combined, he’s thrown only 33 interceptions. In 17 fewer starts, Cousins threw 19 more picks (but only seven fewer touchdowns). We know Smith takes care of the ball, but this stat can have a tremendous impact on both sides of the ball. It’s about field position. I wrote about this in February, but here’s the stat: Last season, Washington allowed the opposition to start 23 drives inside its territory, which ranked 29th in the NFL. The Patriots allowed only five such drives (and two were kneel-downs at the end of a loss). The Redskins allowed the most drives to start inside their own 30.

 

That was not all on Cousins by any means. But if this stat gets turned around, the Redskins will improve. During Smith’s five seasons in Kansas City, the Chiefs allowed a combined 72 such drives. It’s no coincidence they made the postseason four times and finished with a winning record all five years. Their defense was good for his first four years, but last season the Chiefs ranked 15th in points allowed and 28th in yards. They were not great by any means. They won 10 games. Taking care of the ball (and having some offensive playmakers) mattered. One Redskins staffer earlier this offseason pointed to this stat and Smith's win-loss record in the past seven years (69-31-1) and said it was no coincidence. He pointed to his ability to take care of the ball as a main reason.He's played with some excellent defenses, too. But he helps them out by not committing turnovers.

 

 

 

Also, per DVOA:

 

The Redskins' defense was given the 28th best starting field position in the league last year.  The Chiefs' defense was given the 3rd best.  In 2016, Redskins were 15th, KC was 4th.  In 2015, Redskins were 18th, KC was 3rd.

 

The poor starting field position for the defense isn't all on Cousins, but a significant amount of it is.  This is an underrated stat that has a huge impact on wins and losses, and I think the change at QB will lead to more wins for the Redskins this year than any of the last 3 years.  This stat is a big reason why.

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14 hours ago, HTTRDynasty said:

 

I really doubt this will be an issue. Last season, Cousins had 540 attempts in 16 games (34 attempts per game) and Smith had 505 attempts in 15 games (34 attempts per game).  The Chiefs actually ranked 12th in passing play percentage for the season, while the Redskins ranked 15th.  The main reason the Chiefs threw more is because KC's defense was a bottom 3 defense last year (before that, they usually had at least an above average defense), so Alex was forced to shoulder more responsibility, which led to better bulk stats while still maintaining excellent efficiency, leading to a career year. 

 

 

 

I posted my favorite take on this (from Keim) earlier in the thread, but I'll post it again, as I believe it is such an underrated aspect of a team's record by year's end.

 

 

 

Also, per DVOA:

 

The Redskins' defense was given the 28th best starting field position in the league last year.  The Chiefs' defense was given the 3rd best.  In 2016, Redskins were 15th, KC was 4th.  In 2015, Redskins were 18th, KC was 3rd.

 

The poor starting field position for the defense isn't all on Cousins, but a significant amount of it is.  This is an underrated stat that has a huge impact on wins and losses, and I think the change at QB will lead to more wins for the Redskins this year than any of the last 3 years.  This stat is a big reason why.

 

    • To me as for Alex as I am sticking to our supporting cast being really key to what kind of season the dude has.  I don't think its coincidence that 3 of his top playmakers all ranked really high in the players top 100 list.   

       

      My concern about the hype on Alex was the dude was never really pegged as a top 10 QB around the league.  Expectations here by some might be a bit overstated.  If some want to think he's emerging that way late in his career -- that's cool, maybe so, but he's never really been pegged as this slam dunk top 10 type - he's usually pegged out of the top 10 somewhere in the 15 range.  You mention Keim in your point even he goofed on the overhype on Alex in a radio interview. 

       

      Please no one take the comments I post below out of context.   I like Alex Smith. I am giving the devil's advocate argument about Alex and there is plenty of it from people tied to KC which is he had a career year with an elite supporting cast and now that he's getting older that could have been his last hurrah as opposed to the start of a later career resurgence especially for a dude who relies on his legs and is going to a team without a supporting cast like what he had.   And there was a lull last season when he and the team struggled where people were clamoring for him to get benched for Mahones.  Google it, its not hard to find.

       

      I think EVERY QB is dependent on his supporting cast.  A good QB with an elite supporting cast = big season.  A good QB with the crap we had on the field (after injuries) last year = average QB.   And yeah call me crazy but if TJ Clemmings is out there at LT along with two other scrubs at the O line.  Vernon Davis is the top passing weapon and the RB is Perine -- I don't think Alex is having a 2017 type of season.

       

      That's my way of circling back to the idea that IMO Alex's 2018 season is very dependent on Reed being healthy and Guice emerging.  And that's not a slam at him, that's about what I feel about QBs who aren't elite and to me Alex isn't elite.

       

      Does Alex giving up less turnovers than Kirk make some sea change difference in this coming season?  My guess is maybe a little.    If Jordan reed is healthy and Guice emerges -- I think that will make a lot of difference and give Alex a shot to duplicate 2017.

       

      I still wonder what Alex will be in a more aggressive offense when he's slinging the ball all over the field with a supporting cast that has some questions.  Does his legs still work the same in the mid 30s?  I am not saying I am pessimistic on any of this.  I am not.  I just don't know, I got to see it play out.  As a Redskins fan of course I am hoping it works out -- plus Alex is a super cool dude -- so hoping for the best.  But I think overhyping him might do him more harm than good -- I tend to think under promise-over deliver.

       

       

      Chris RaybonVerified account @ChrisRaybon Jun 22

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      Alex Smith was considered a limited game manager until he had a receiver whose speed led to an increase in YPA. He had one strong statistical season with said receiver (and a TE and RB playing at near-elite levels) and now it seems like some think this is the new norm for Smith.

       
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    • My point is the Redskins (and some fantasy owners) seem to think they're getting some version closer to 2017 Alex Smith than the extremely limited Alex Smith who struggled to throw for 300 yards even once per season before gaining a generational talent.

       
       
       
       

      All the storylines fit when you look at the raw numbers. Alex Smith is having the best start to his career, and one of the best three weeks in the NFL, after the Kansas City Chiefs began the process of replacing him. With first-round draft pick Patrick Mahomes II sitting on the bench, Smith has transformed into the aggressive gunslinger that no one thought he wanted to be.

      One caveat: He hasn't.

       

      The disparity between Smith's traditional passer rating and his total quarterback rating illustrates the help he has received from teammates in what remains a highly conservative passing offense. This is not to say Smith has played poorly. The Chiefs' attack is best viewed as the most efficient Alex Smith offense imaginable, rather than something new.

       

      ...we see that Chiefs pass-catchers are turning relatively safe and conservative passes into bigger chunks of yardage. The Chiefs averaged the NFL's highest yardage total after the catch, per completion, and had not dropped a single pass through the first three weeks of the season, based on ESPN Stats & Information video analysis. (Last season, the Chiefs dropped a higher percentage of passes -- 5.0 percent -- than all but six teams.)

       

      On the other hand, an average Smith pass is traveling 5.81 yards in the air past the line of scrimmage -- lower than 26 other NFL quarterbacks. That's even less than the 6.24 air yards per throw he has averaged since joining the Chiefs in 2013, the lowest among qualified quarterbacks over that span.

       

      Also pulling down Smith's QBR has been his high sack rate per dropback, the worst in the NFL, and his struggles to convert first downs on third-down throws.

       

      Indeed, the Chiefs' success hasn't been the result of a new Alex Smith. If anything, it's Alex Smith turned up to 11.

       

      As the next graphic shows, more than one out of every three passes Smith has thrown this season didn't make it past the line of scrimmage. These are the highest-percentage throws in football. They are the easiest to complete, the most difficult to force a turnover on and the type of pass that puts the maximum responsibility on the receiver to make it a positive gain.

       

      This is nothing new for Smith. Since 2013, he has led the NFL in percentage of throws at or behind the line of scrimmage (28.2).

      As a result, it should not be surprising that Smith had thrown the NFL's fewest passes, by percentage, that travel more than five yards beyond the line of scrimmage -- and it's not even close. About 37 percent of his throws are extending beyond that five-yard mark. The next-lowest percentage was produced by the Oakland Raiders' Derek Carr (43 percent), and the NFL average is 56 percent.

       

      None of this is to take away from the net result of the Chiefs' performance. These numbers simply give us a better understanding of how it has happened, who (else) deserves the credit and the extent to which Smith has remained consistent to his career approach.

       
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@Skinsinparadise 

 

1. The first part of my post was responding to the point you made regarding pass attempts now that Alex is on the Redskins.  It's a fact that he had just as many attempts per game as Cousins.  It's also a fact that he maintained far better efficiency on those attempts, with a much higher YPA.  I don't think that's debatable.  

 

2. Regarding supporting cast: I agree that every QB is dependent on supporting cast.  If Reed, Guice, and the OL don't stay healthy, it's gonna be a long season.  No debate there.  But Smith had Kelce and Tyreek in 2016 as well.  He also had Spencer Ware at RB, who was a solid starter (1,368 yards from scrimmage in 14 games).  But Smith put up pedestrian numbers that year.  What changed regarding supporting cast between 2016 and 2017?  Kareem Hunt, obviously (1,782 yards from scrimmage in 16 games - which is only a little less than a 14 YPG difference from Ware).  But, more importantly, IMO, the defense around him changed.  They went from elite in 2015, to above average in 2016, to bottom 3 in 2017.  This forced Reid to adjust his play calling, which has normally been extremely conservative:

 

Chiefs Offensive Profile Under Andy Reid
2014-2017 Pass Attempts Rank: 28th, 29th, 25th, 17th
2014-2017 Rush Attempts Rank: 16th, 12th, 14th, 23rd
2014-2017 Play Volume Rank: 29th, 31st, 27th, 24th
2014-2017 Yards Per Play Rank: 17th, 12th, 16th, 2nd

 

This adjustment put more of the onus on Smith than he's ever had before, and he delivered in a huge way.  

 

Look, I understand the critics who say he's an average or slightly above average QB who has never put up good bulk stats in any year other than 2017.  But that ignores a whole lot of context.  For the last seven years, the guy has been on 49ers and Chiefs teams with elite defenses (or the rare year where they're just above average).  Of course he's not gonna be asked to put up crazy bulk stats or take a lot of risk.  He did prove what he could do when asked to shoulder more responsibility last year though, with mostly the same supporting cast he had in 2016 on offense.  I think that should count for something more than just dismissing it as an "outlier" season.


 

Quote

 

This is nothing new for Smith. Since 2013, he has led the NFL in percentage of throws at or behind the line of scrimmage (28.2).

 

 

 

 

I picked this quote out of the article you posted.  I don't think most people understand that this is what an Andy Reid offense DOES.  He has always used screens and dump-offs more than any other HC in the league.  This isn't some crutch that Reid constructed for Smith.  Alex Smith is the first 4,000 yard passer Andy Reid has ever called plays for in his career, and Alex actually played at his best last year when Nagy was calling plays, not Reid.  I think people are ignoring Reid's offensive scheme and play calling tendencies when they bash Alex for his conservatism.  Some of the criticism against Alex is fair, but a lot of it ignores context and what he has been asked to do while playing with elite defenses.

 

I wonder what people will say when Kirk barely puts up 4,000 yards this year because he will be on a team with a great defense and running game.  Will they say he had a bad year because he didn't put up more yards?  I doubt it.  His efficiency, and ability to avoid turnovers and win games, will be what he will be judged by.

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The Kirk vs. Alex discussion will be inescapable, but honestly the two QB's aren't in even remotely similar situations.  Cousins landed on a team that is ready to contend for the Superbowl, or at least a deep playoff run. The team was there before he ever throws a pass.  Alex Smith is joining a team who has teetered around .500 for the last few seasons and made a quick playoff appearance in 2015.

 

To me, Alex & Kirk are pretty interchangeable.  They have differences in their games, but overall they are molded from the same clay.  You can with them, but not because of them.  We can take a microscope to each of their games to debate who does what better, but overall their combined skillsets come out pretty equal if you ask me.

 

2018 is going to be an interesting season for both QB's.  If the Redskins go 9-7 or 10-6 and get a wild card spot, this season is probably considered a success.  Contrast that with the Vikings, no one is going to care about what Cousins does September - December, if he ends up throwing picks in the playoffs.  


The Quarterbacks are comparable, but the situations they are in are not.

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1 hour ago, HTTRDynasty said:

@Skinsinparadise 

 

1. The first part of my post was responding to the point you made regarding pass attempts now that Alex is on the Redskins.  It's a fact that he had just as many attempts per game as Cousins.  It's also a fact that he maintained far better efficiency on those attempts, with a much higher YPA.  I don't think that's debatable.  

 

 

If you look at my post that I responded to you initially, I said 2017 Alex Smith was the exception.  If we are living with 2017 being representative of Alex's whole career and or his future, your point is spot on.  But that's not the case in the 2016, 2015, etc. etc.  That's one of my wildcards.  And yes I do think Alex's stellar supporting cast last year had something to do with it.  I am not exactly going on some wild leap on that point -- just about everyone commenting on Alex pro and con have said the same.

 

1 hour ago, HTTRDynasty said:

 

2. Regarding supporting cast: I agree that every QB is dependent on supporting cast.  If Reed, Guice, and the OL don't stay healthy, it's gonna be a long season.  No debate there.  But Smith had Kelce and Tyreek in 2016 as well.  He also had Spencer Ware at RB, who was a solid starter (1,368 yards from scrimmage in 14 games).  But Smith put up pedestrian numbers that year.  What changed regarding supporting cast between 2016 and 2017?  Kareem Hunt, obviously (1,782 yards from scrimmage in 16 games - which is only a little less than a 14 YPG difference from Ware).

 

 Hunt > Ware.  And Tyreek was mostly used as a special teams player not a deep threat receiver in 2016.  They seemed to have a Eureka moment in the 2017 off season where they come to the conclusion that Tyreek has electric speed/good hands -- maybe he should be our go route guy?  And he became the best in the business at it.

 

1 hour ago, HTTRDynasty said:

 

Look, I understand the critics who say he's an average or slightly above average QB who has never put up good bulk stats in any year other than 2017.  But that ignores a whole lot of context.  For the last seven years, the guy has been on 49ers and Chiefs teams with elite defenses (or the rare year where they're just above average).  Of course he's not gonna be asked to put up crazy bulk stats or take a lot of risk.  He did prove what he could do when asked to shoulder more responsibility last year though, with mostly the same supporting cast he had in 2016 on offense.  I think that should count for something more than just dismissing it as an "outlier" season.

 

The only person relevant to your 2016-2017 point is Kelce.  So yeah sorry I discount this point totally.  I've not seen anyone covering Alex talk about 2016 and 2017 were similar enough the way you do here. 

 

On Alex, I am trying to stay balanced. I like the dude.  But I am not cherry picking the good stuff and ignoring the rest (not saying you are cherry picking I am just explaining my approach to it).   My point in short is the Redskins roster and Chiefs roster isn't apples to apples.  Jay relies more on the passing game than Reid does in KC.  And I wonder what happens to a guy who uses his legs into the mid 30s.  These are all unknowns to me.  I have to see it play out.  I am not pessimistic about it.  But I am not slam dunk -- use a NY accent -- get out of here of course Alex will go apples to apples in DC like he did in KC and last year represents Alex's career pathway from here on.   I don't know.  

 

I was all over the FA thread for example saying lets sign Paul Richardson and I highlighted the plays I liked and why I like him.  I feel invested in him.  But at the same time, I realize he hasn't had a big season, yet.  He has 2 ACL tears.  So am cautiously optimistic and I don't ignore it when a Seattle reporter comes on 980 and says to pump the breaks on the dude and explains why.

 

Similar on Alex -- you got a Football outsiders guy saying he studied Alex extensively and he has well earned the Check Down Charlie status and doubled down why they actually call that stat the Alex. He went on about studying QBs on a number of metrics and Alex throws short of the sticks a ton on third and long -- and went on to compared him to Aaron Rodgers and others who go for the kill on third and long.  Andy Benoit who was a God like figure for the anti-Kirkers for his criticism of him years back -- of all people ironically goes on about studying both Kirk and Alex -- Jay will pull his hair out about how conservative Alex is compared to Kirk.  Then we got the throwing behind the line of scrimmage stat, I put up on my last post.  The fact that the Chiefs had the best separation numbers of any WR group.  All the criticism from people who covered Alex in KC.  On and on and on.   It's not all warm and fuzzy -- roses and lollipops when it comes to those who covered and studied Alex. 

 

Then you got the Louis Reddicks and the Doug Farrars who love the dude and think he's getting better.  Maybe they are right.  I hope they are.  My point is I think there are some wild card issues with Alex that have to play out.  Similar to the Vikings with Kirk -- if you listen to some of the comments about Kirk on these national shows including from Vikings players -- you got a lot of love going his way.  I think Kirk has something to prove there -- the reverse of Alex, hey give him a top supporting cast now what happens?  I think basking in off season acquistions is fun and if you can't be optimistic now, then when can you? I get that. The off season is the hope faze.  I am just saying for me, I got some open questions that I want to see play out.   

 

And I think pointing this stuff out is being actually nicer to Alex.  If Alex is a conservative WCO who isn't going to be a world beater with his arm but isn't going to make mistakes -- then I am happy with that.  If he's just good.  I am happy with that, too.  This isn't directed at you but I've seen so much build up and love for this guy -- that eventually I think the odds are it sets him up to be potentially disappointing.   If our expectations are more measured -- then we hit the under promise-over deliver turf.  And then I think we are more likely to be happy with him.  

35 minutes ago, NoCalMike said:

 

To me, Alex & Kirk are pretty interchangeable.  They have differences in their games, but overall they are molded from the same clay.  You can with them, but not because of them.  We can take a microscope to each of their games to debate who does what better, but overall their combined skillsets come out pretty equal if you ask me.

 

I agree with all of this.  Different situations.  Both guys with different things to prove for different reasons.  You got some saying Kirk is better than Alex.  You got some saying Alex is better.  Some saying they are about the same.  I lean Kirk but I think they are close enough that I have no issues with any who lean Alex.  I think they are close to the same quality.

 

Neither have the rep of being elite or you can ride their backs to the promised land.  They both have opportunities to prove their critics wrong.  Will see. 

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@Skinsinparadise

 

I’m on my phone for he rest of the day, so I’m not gonna go through and quote all your points, but my main confusion with your response to me is that you completely ignored (or missed) my main point about the defense being much worse than it ever was before, and Alex shouldering more of the load as a result. This is he basis for Alex’s increase in bulk stats (good or bad). I agree that supporting cast was a big reason those bulk stats were “good”. But he doesn’t put up the stats he does if the Chiefs had an elite defense. He would be the same old Alex, and Reid would have been the same old Reid who had never had a 4,000 yard passer in his career.  

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2 hours ago, HTTRDynasty said:

@Skinsinparadise

 

I’m on my phone for he rest of the day, so I’m not gonna go through and quote all your points, but my main confusion with your response to me is that you completely ignored (or missed) my main point about the defense being much worse than it ever was before, and Alex shouldering more of the load as a result. This is he basis for Alex’s increase in bulk stats (good or bad). I agree that supporting cast was a big reason those bulk stats were “good”. But he doesn’t put up the stats he does if the Chiefs had an elite defense. He would be the same old Alex, and Reid would have been the same old Reid who had never had a 4,000 yard passer in his career.  

 

I understood your point and addressed it.   My issue with your argument wasn't whether Alex had a big year in 2017.  You can lay on 50 more points to it -- it doesn't matter, I don't need to be convinced on that point.  I didn't argue that he didn't have his best year in 2017.  I am arguing whether it was his career peak versus a portent of things to come.  And I don't even land on a position on that front -- I just say its an unknown and its a major debating point about him pro and con around the league whenever Alex's name comes up.  

 

My point in response is I don't see an apples to apples season with Alex in his career prior to 2017 -- and I 100% disagree with your 2016 comparison.    Could Alex chuck the ball like crazy with a subpar supporting cast like we had post injuries last year?  You got me.  I give you that for one season he could chuck the ball around with an elite supporting cast but does that carry over if the cast isn't as good and as he gets older.  I am not saying no.  I am not saying yes.  I got to see it play out, that's all. 

 

My larger point is the same old same old Alex, I am fine with. That would be a good but not a great QB -- somewhere between the 13th-16th best QB in the league. I argue that the 2017 version of Alex is better than that summation.  But can he do it if Jordan Reed gets hurt again?  And then the comparison is Kelce versus V. Davis?  If Guice doesn't make it (I think Guice will, though) and its Kelley versus Hunt.  And the deep threat is Doctson versus Hill?  My gut is no. 

 

That's why for me...Jordan Reed healthy.  And Guice is a stud.  Richardson or Doctsom emerge = big year for Alex.  If that doesn't happen, I got my doubts. And that's not a condemnation of Alex but just my thought on any QB's season to be tied to their supporting cast especially those QBs who aren't elite.

 

My larger point and this isn't directed your way is this:  I see almost (almost is the operative word so not everyone) a perfect correlation between those who didn't like Kirk and the hype on Alex.  I think the honeymoon will carry on for a little while but eventually it will wear off.  And when that wears off and lets say we learn we got a QB who is good but isn't a barn burner -- I think some of those people will turn on the guy.  And I think that's unfair to the dude.  Alex isn't considered in KC as an elite stud.  And I think some (not you) who are elevating him to that status or setting him up to be a disappointment. 

 

 

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