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Let's All Get Behind Alex Smith! Or Not!! (M.E.T.) NO kirk talk---that goes in ATN forum

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9 minutes ago, Darrell Green Fan said:

 

His legs are clearly not the same, many of us have noticed how much slower he looks as a Dallas lineman ran him down.  Father TIme is an undefeated opponent and Smith is not immune to this, It's also easy to avoid turnovers when you throw 7 yard passes on 3rd and 11. 

 

In addition 2 contending teams felt he was holding them back and went with another QB, and that was when he was in his prime.   So if your goal is 9-7 and a first round exit he's your man, or at least he was.  I'm looking for more than that. 

 

I agree. What we are getting is not what i expected. I never expected an upgrade but i did not expect a falling off of ability. 

 

But because of that, unless it is age, it's fair to feel like he could get better. Not saying age is or isn't what's driving his poor play. Age could very well be a big factor. But if it's not - it is most likely comfort with the system and lack of continuity at the skill positions due to injury. If that's the case - once we get to the Playoffs, we could hit our stride and make some noise. 

 

It's not just wishful thinking. There is a logical path there. The question is how likely is it. I have no idea. I think it may be a bit of both. A little age which he cannot over come but comfort in the system which he can. Next couple games will tell about him and the team as a whole. 

 

They could just as easily win out as lose out. The good news? I truly believe 3-4 gets us in. Again, once in, it's anyone's game. 

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20 minutes ago, goskins10 said:

 

 

They could just as easily win out as lose out. The good news? I truly believe 3-4 gets us in. Again, once in, it's anyone's game. 

 


I agree, 9-7 does it, as long as we split with Philly.  Hard to see them or Dallas going 5-2 down the stretch, and if they do, we'd have tie breakers at that point.  

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3 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

I think Alex will improve and am sticking with that.  Ditto he'd play better with better weapons.  He's played slightly better in the last 2 weeks hopefully that's a trend.

 

The second half of last week there appeared to be an increased level of comfort in getting to 2nd and 3rd reads. Hopefully trending in right direction of Smith and Gruden meshing better. 

 

My my favorite games to date have been the Cardinal (used legs in critical situations to be a big lead in first half) and Packer (Similar to Cardinal game, got out to big lead and the pass set up the run) games. These seemed to require less of him going through his reads though (going off memory though :/). 

 

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But as for him being this winner -- drives me a little nuts :806:  And this isn't me picking on him but how I feel about the position in general.  it would be one thing if the teams he left slid after he left but they actually got better.  KC looks like a juggernaut with Alex gone.  SF made the superbowl the next year with Alex gone.  Is that some incidental occurrence both teams luckly struck on other winners too as successors otherwise their rosters were ho hum.  And when the 49ers didn't have a good defense Alex was surprisingly a loser and then just because a winner coincidentally when their defense emerged. 

 

You’re choosing to simplify arguments made by myself and “some” others who are stating there’s room for growth, even with using spectrum of Alex being an average to above QB. 

 

Are you on side of Alex has contributed nothing to the wins?

 

It’s hard to argue Alex not being a QB who’s going to give “your” team a chance to win in a majority of games. For me, value exists in Alex to date, but the ceiling hasn’t been reached. 

 

Do I think Skins are a Super Bowl team? No. Alex will need more help around him to sniff an NFC championship game again. Buuut, I’ll take an at bat in the playoffs with understanding anything can happen. Also, making playoffs from an experience standpoint has value. 

 

 

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The kicker to me is if the team is privately celebrating that Alex is just a winner and that's why they are 6-3 they are having fun with the beat guys who are covering the team and giving them a different rap.  Mike Jones who I gather is still plugged in with the team said yesterday that the coaches know they need to get much more out of the passing game.  That's the 4th beat type reporter who have said so. 

 

I fully acknowledge I’m bias as I don’t value this kind of reporting. 

 

Of course the team wants more from the passing game, Gruden and Smith themselves have stated this publicly, no point in creating drama around the situation other than to serve the appetite of a fan base. 

 

 

 

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I gather to some that point is obvious.  But to others they sell Alex's play right now in odd way where Alex is both playing poorly and they are winning because of him -- because hey Alex is a winner.  That's not the vibe i get even a little from beat guys who saying they have talked to the coaching staff -- where the comments have ranged by "frustrated" to "very frustrated" to "surprise its taking Alex this long to adjust."  The positive thing I hear is they think they can fix it. 

 

Not one post have I read a poster say Skins are winning because of Smith. The general opinion seems to be acknowledging Smith has contributed to the wins, as his style of play has supported the game flow well enough to be a winning team. 

 

How do you choose to label Smith. Some prefer to generalize it and say he’s a winner (why this is a trigger, I don’t know), or a game manager (which is used to slight a QB, fortunately Smith is at a point in life he doesn’t care). 

 

How about this title:

 

Contributor to WINS

 

Seems fair, right? 

 

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The one thing that has gone under the radar is the special teams, ranked #4 by football outsiders.  Last year it was terrible.  Defense is better.  Running game better.  The whole team is better.  What would Alex do with a crap special teams, crap defense, Robert Kelley as the featured back -- in other words the 2017 roster.  I don't think that hot.  There is a value of course to not turning the ball over but if that was the be all and end all -- doesn't seem like privately the coaching staff agrees. 

 

 

 

Smith’s style/skills/#intangibles contributes positively to all statistics listed above (Fully acknowledging this as opinion). Yeees, there’s a lot left to be desired in the passing game, but as you say, I’m confident it will improve. 

 

A lot of football left to be played, it should help as we continue to evaluate the team. 

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I loved the TD pass to Doctson in the back of the endzone.  Also loved to see another game with zero INTs. 

 

Didn't love the missed deep ball to a wide open Davis. 

 

Mixed bag.

 

Fingers are crossed that he gets better in the second half of the season.

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3 minutes ago, dckey said:

Question about the Alex Contract, when I looked it up he is never paid in the top 10 of QBs until 2021 when we could let him go with no cap hit, his salary cap value by qb is 

2018 15th

2019 21st

2020 11th

2021 5th

 

https://overthecap.com/position/quarterback/2018

The way the deal is structured there has to be a cap bit of over 10M in 2021.

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4 minutes ago, BatteredFanSyndrome said:

The way the deal is structured there has to be a cap bit of over 10M in 2021.

Thought we had a get out clause in the 2021 year 

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Just now, dckey said:

Thought we had a get out clause in the 2021 year 

Anyway you break it down, he’s due his guaranteed money.  The way the deal

is structured, all the guanteed money isn’t paid out in the first 3 seasons.

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2 hours ago, goskins10 said:

 

Hmm, the data below shows him to be 2nd (unless we think this is jsut made up - not being a smart ass - It happens but i do not think so here. I agree it seems odd. But it is what it is. 4th is not 25th and it is in the top for passer rating in the RZ. He is **** most everywhere else so overall he is bottom 3rd. But the data is what it is. 

 

You can call it selective facts but not alternative facts. 

 

image.png.00d5b0011d6f870286fda703a6af9ad8.png

 

He's 25th here.

 

So the big question is why the discrepancy?

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2018/redzone-passing.htm

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16 minutes ago, Stadium-Armory said:

I loved the TD pass to Doctson in the back of the endzone.  Also loved to see another game with zero INTs. 

 

Didn't love the missed deep ball to a wide open Davis. 

 

 

I think you highlighted the differences in what we gained and what we lost from a more traditional pocket passer. The Doctson TD pass, the huge scramble against Atlanta (which no one cares about because it came in a blowout), etc. are a dimension that Smith adds. 

 

But, the miss to Davis, the miss to Sprinkle, and probably a couple of those seam misses to Doctson are throws that a better passer/not as good improviser would have made in their sleep. 

 

So, my hope is that he still has 3-4 plays that he will make to balance the ledger. It definitely seems like he's left more on the field than he's added, so I'd like to think he'll PROGRESS to the mean in the final 7 games...maybe get hot to where we have an average offense in December. 

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7 minutes ago, BatteredFanSyndrome said:

Anyway you break it down, he’s due his guaranteed money.  The way the deal

is structured, all the guanteed money isn’t paid out in the first 3 seasons.

His guaranteed money is paid out by 2021

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20 minutes ago, goskins10 said:

 

The one you have listed them by #of TDs only. He is 25th in # of TDs. The other list is by passer rating that includes Ints, Yds, Atts, TDs comp %.  

 

Nice catch. I was looking at the inside the 10.

 

Still, after looking at the numbers, including all the stats you mention................it's not adding up.

 

There is only a a partial screen shot for the high Alex rating. I'm not sure if it is from this year. And considering he is currently ranked between Josh Rosen and C.J. Beathard, I'm skeptical.

 

If anyone has a PFF sub, could they confirm his rating in the RZ?

 

Edit: Nevermind, found it:

 

 

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25 minutes ago, Morneblade said:

 

Nice catch. I was looking at the inside the 10.

 

Still, after looking at the numbers, including all the stats you mention................it's not adding up.

 

There is only a a partial screen shot for the high Alex rating. I'm not sure if it is from this year. And considering he is currently ranked between Josh Rosen and C.J. Beathard, I'm skeptical.

 

If anyone has a PFF sub, could they confirm his rating in the RZ?

 

I just checked the passer rating for Alex inside the 20 based on the numbers in the Pro-Football Reference link you provided and using their calculator; 

29 att  18 comp 130 yds 7 TD 0 Int  = passer rating of 112.07 -  Slightly less than shown in the graphic but still very close, and still ranks him 4th (they had 113.7). 

 

Here is the link to the calculator - https://www.pro-football-reference.com/about/qb-rating.htm

 

Edit:  Just for fun I inserted 1 Interception to see what it would do to the rating - drops it to 97.7. Make it 2 and it drops to 83.3. The passer rating puts a premium on interceptions. 

 

Corrected: TDs are not part of the calculation. I made it 18 TDs and the passer rating is 83.3. To me that is a huge flaw. Let me find another calculator and see what it comes out as. May need to stop using PFR. 

 

TDs are part of the equation - but it maxes it out a specific value (2.375). The 7 TDs based on the atts already had him maxed out. So he could not get any more points for TDs. 

 

So the int are heavily counted. 

 

Thanks for bringing this up @Morneblade  Led me to look at the actual calculations. I understand them better now - don't agree with them, but I understand them. 

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1 hour ago, wit33 said:

 

The second half of last week there appeared to be an increased level of comfort in getting to 2nd and 3rd reads. Hopefully trending in right direction of Smith and Gruden meshing better. 

 

 

Agree.

 

1 hour ago, wit33 said:

 

My my favorite games to date have been the Cardinal (used legs in critical situations to be a big lead in first half) and Packer (Similar to Cardinal game, got out to big lead and the pass set up the run) games. These seemed to require less of him going through his reads though (going off memory though :/). 

 

 

Agree with the Packer game if we are purely talking first half.  The Arizona game, love the running game in that one but Alex's biggest completion if I recall was like 12 yards or something like that.  I liked his play better in the last two weeks as opposed to Arizona.

 

1 hour ago, wit33 said:

You’re choosing to simplify arguments made by myself and “some” others who are stating there’s room for growth, even with using spectrum of Alex being an average to above QB. 

 

Are you on side of Alex has contributed nothing to the wins?

 

 

I think some are framing their argument in a way where there is no way they can lose -- including you at times.   Suggest that they are winning and its no coincidence that it's happening because Alex is the QB. Then when cornered, the response often is yeah Alex hasn't played that well, that's obvious, what else do you got?  

 

Here you are talking about Alex in theory as an average to above average.  Are we talking in theory or are we talking that he's played above average or average?

 

Is there is new spectrum of Qbs (or one already existed that we didn't catch on to) where they don't play well but their version of not playing well is a winning formula?

 

 

1 hour ago, wit33 said:

 

 

Are you on side of Alex has contributed nothing to the wins?

 

 

Strawman argument.  Can you say Malcom Floyd hasn't contributed to their wins? Everyone contributes SOMETHING.   If the theory is every player should be celebrated for every win -- ok.  But there is as a reason why certain players are highlighted more.  There is a reasons why we are hearing more this week about JJ Watt versus Kayvin Webster.   

 

And if Alex is a key component to these wins -- if the beat reporters are correct why are Jay and his coaching staff missing it?  Some hyperbole on my end to make a point:  is it that Jay and his offensive staff are just dense and don't get winning football when they see it and aren't properly crediting it to Alex.  Beat guys are saying they are very frustrated versus pleased with Alex's play so far.  Finlay in one of his latest blog casts said from what he has gathered they thought they were getting the 2017 version of Alex and not this -- they didn't sign up for this

1 hour ago, wit33 said:

 

Contributor to WINS

 

Seems fair, right? 

 

 

What player doesn't contribute to wins?  So maybe say it this way:  every player including Alex did something positive in the mix of the game to help the team win that game. 

 

If people want to sell that better play is coming, his weapons are subpar, be patient, etc, etc.  I get that.  but doubling down that he's played well or winning because of him which to me is the same thing -- don't get that.  And I know i am not alone on this -- doesn't seem like the coaching staff thinks he's played well or a key part of why they are winning.  

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2 minutes ago, BatteredFanSyndrome said:

By my math, the first three years is a fraction over 60M, he’s guaranteed over 70M.

 

This is correct.

 

People have been looking at 2020 as the year to get out of the contract is not because there is no dead cap hit, but it's low enough to swallow. But it;s still a big number, it's just over 5 million if he is a post June 1st cut.

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9 minutes ago, dckey said:

 

No, he wasn't. That is his salary+singing bonus, which is not paid in one lump sum. Although I can see why you would think that, Sportrac has it listed in a VERY confusing way. No way we could afford to pay him 40 million in one year. That would be like 1/3 of our total cap space.

This might explain it better.

https://overthecap.com/player/alex-smith/784/

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10 minutes ago, Morneblade said:

 

No, he wasn't. That is his salary+singing bonus, which is not paid in one lump sum. Although I can see why you would think that, Sportrac has it listed in a VERY confusing way. No way we could afford to pay him 40 million in one year. That would be like 1/3 of our total cap space.

This might explain it better.

https://overthecap.com/player/alex-smith/784/

Even your link has a cash payout of 40mil in 2018?  Every link I have seen is stating he is getting 71mil guaranteed in the first three years.  27mil signing bonus + salary, which is apart of the guaranteed money then 15mil and 16mil the following years which equals 71

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1 minute ago, BatteredFanSyndrome said:

See Morneblades post.  The difference between the cap hit and 40M doesn’t just disappear.

We are spending 22% cash payout on Alex Smith this year.  Please show me where we prorated his signing bonus?  Every link states we paid him 27mil in signing bonus this year plus his salary of 13mil

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7 minutes ago, dckey said:

Even your link has a cash payout of 40mil in 2018?  Every link I have seen is stating he is getting 71mil guaranteed in the first three years.  23mil signing bonus, which is apart of the guaranteed money then 15mil and 16mil the following years which equals 71

 

You may be confusing dead cap with payout. He is due 20,400,000 next yr - although he already has received $5.4M from his signing bonus. But the dead cap if the team cuts him before the 5th day of the 2019 yr is $36.6M. Payout and dead cap are different. 

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1 minute ago, dckey said:

We are spending 22% cash payout on Alex Smith this year.  Please show me where we prorated his signing bonus?  Every link states we paid him 27mil in signing bonus this year plus his salary of 13mil

I’m no salary cap expert, but how do we get a cap hit of 18.4M for a guy we are paying 40M?

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1 minute ago, dckey said:

We are spending 22% cash payout on Alex Smith this year.  Please show me where we prorated his signing bonus?  Every link states we paid him 27mil in signing bonus this year plus his salary of 13mil

 

The overthecap chart shows it pro-rated. $5.4M a year. Where are you seeing sa $27M payout towards the cap? He does get the money now. We just get to pro-rate it in terms of CAP. Maybe that's the confusion. 

 

image.png.53df7fb0692d7a2157f4bfb828efb12b.png

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