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Veryoldschool

Let's All Get Behind Alex Smith! Or Not!! (M.E.T.) NO kirk talk---that goes in ATN forum

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20 minutes ago, Renegade7 said:

 

That was a perfect storm of failure, this is like one front until we start trading picks.  

 

I do believe we should draft a QB this year instead of wait.  Have an open competition his second year, which would be Alex last.  

 

Thats big reason i think all the enthusiasm is dented this year:  we knew this was temporary, but if we can't get the stop gap right and the previous two franchise QBs are gone, what hope is there for the next one? 

 

All the more reason to focus on one game at a time.  That can't be address for months out.  Whoever made the call to sign AP and Cooper should have front row seat in picking the next guy.

 

Why would any thoughtful Skin fan expect this Redskins owner/front office to recognize a talented NFL QB playing in college when they didn’t recognize a very good NFL QB that was actually on their roster for years?  

 

So yes I things could get a lot worse than having a super cautious game manager like Smith with an improved defense and functional running game dinking and dunking the team to .500+ plus this year.  They might be as exciting as a 6 month CD but they are 6-3 and have a shot at a division title which is great during the Snyder era.

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3 minutes ago, Veryoldschool said:

 

Why would any thoughtful Skin fan expect this Redskins owner/front office to recognize a talented NFL QB playing in college when they didn’t recognize a very good NFL QB that was actually on their roster for years?  

 

So yes I things could get a lot worse than having a super cautious game manager like Smith with an improved defense and functional running game dinking and dunking the team to .500+ plus this year.  They might be as exciting as a 6 month CD but they are 6-3 and have a shot at a division title which is great during the Snyder era.

 

Not much reason for hope on the next guy, but wheres the fun in that?  Long as Bruce doesn't make the pick, I'll roll the dice considering the defense the front office has built.

 

I hope Alex doesn't get worse this year, I do not think he will.  I just want to savor this, I'm not sure or ready for what comes next until i see how this season ends.

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1 hour ago, Renegade7 said:

 

Not much reason for hope on the next guy, but wheres the fun in that?  Long as Bruce doesn't make the pick, I'll roll the dice considering the defense the front office has built.

 

I hope Alex doesn't get worse this year, I do not think he will.  I just want to savor this, I'm not sure or ready for what comes next until i see how this season ends.

 

If it makes you feel better, I don't think Alex will get worse. I think he's going improve in a couple areas.

 

The question really is: is the Defense and Running game going to continue? If so, then it's likely we win the Division.

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Alex needs to continue his top rating in the red zone!  This will help with more opportunities!!  Let’s beat Houston!!!

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10 minutes ago, BatteredFanSyndrome said:

Huh?  He’s literally near the very bottom of starting QBs in what I’m looking at.

 

7 minutes ago, Taylor 36 said:

 

And people wonder why I get grouchy at times talking about Alex Smith. It's not so much Alex, but his supporters, and the "alternative facts" thing that irks me.

 

"Top Passer Rating in the Red Zone"..................is 25th.

 

Well hell, what is considered BAD then? There are 32 teams, so like......56th? Because "reasons"? :wtf:

 

 

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I think it is a bit of a false choice when people make the case that throwing short to RBs and TEs is a positive due to the lack of INTs.  Guys like Brees, Rodgers, and Matt Ryan push the ball down field and have the same # or fewer INTs as Alex Smith does.  In my opinion, the NFL is currently built for teams to rack up big numbers without the INT numbers that kill a team.  People complaining that Alex is too conservative, don't have to accept that another QB would turn the ball over a lot more.  Either way, I do think you need a QB that can rack up points, even if they do turn the ball over more.  There is no getting around the fact that, if you make the playoffs, you are going to be facing teams that put up an above average number of points.

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In 2011 Alex Smith started 16 games & the 49ers finished 13-3.  He only threw 17 TDS and 5 INTs all season.  There’s a trend with Alex Smith.  Teams always seem to win in spite of him.  But they always win.  In the divisional game against the Saints he was in a shootout with Drew Brees and won 36-32 with his epic scramble for 28 yard TD.  Lost in NFC Championship in OT.  5 total TDS and zero INTs in the two playoff games.  What I’m saying is that during the regular season his stats were putrid and I’m sure fans were pissed off at times even though they won 13 games.  His career numbers in playoffs is 14 TDS and only 2 INT.  When it comes to Alex Smith I know he’s not an elite QB.  I would never argue that.  But when you can run the ball and play defense and ST he has proven that he consistently wins games which is extremely hard to do at the rate he has since 2011.  It doesn’t even make sense, I know this.  How can a guy that leaves so much to be desired win so many games with different teams???‍♂️

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Last year's defensive PPG ranking: 27

Last year's defensive YPG ranking: 21

Last year's rushing offense ranking: 28

 

This year's defensive PPG ranking: 4

This year's defensive YPG ranking: 14

This year's rushing offense ranking: 11

 

Yeah no wonder "all he does is win".

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5 minutes ago, DJHJR86 said:

Last year's defensive PPG ranking: 27

Last year's defensive YPG ranking: 21

Last year's rushing offense ranking: 28

 

This year's defensive PPG ranking: 4

This year's defensive YPG ranking: 14

This year's rushing offense ranking: 11

 

Yeah no wonder "all he does is win".

 

How much of that is due to him, though, and the style of offense we run in general? I think people often forget that the offense impacts the defense impacts the special teams impacts the offense. It's not as neat as just putting things in a bubble. I'm not saying you don't have a point. But the comparison doesn't just stop at the defense.

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4 hours ago, -JB- said:

In 2011 Alex Smith started 16 games & the 49ers finished 13-3.  He only threw 17 TDS and 5 INTs all season.  There’s a trend with Alex Smith.  Teams always seem to win in spite of him.  But they always win.  In the divisional game against the Saints he was in a shootout with Drew Brees and won 36-32 with his epic scramble for 28 yard TD.  Lost in NFC Championship in OT.  5 total TDS and zero INTs in the two playoff games.  What I’m saying is that during the regular season his stats were putrid and I’m sure fans were pissed off at times even though they won 13 games.  His career numbers in playoffs is 14 TDS and only 2 INT.  When it comes to Alex Smith I know he’s not an elite QB.  I would never argue that.  But when you can run the ball and play defense and ST he has proven that he consistently wins games which is extremely hard to do at the rate he has since 2011.  It doesn’t even make sense, I know this.  How can a guy that leaves so much to be desired win so many games with different teams???‍♂️

 

As we discussed in the other thread what Alex Smith did in SF is about as relevant as what Donovan McNabb did in Philly or how well Mark Brunell played in Jacksonville. He's just not the same QB now and of course his win totals were a result of a great defense. 

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I think Alex will improve and am sticking with that.  Ditto he'd play better with better weapons.  He's played slightly better in the last 2 weeks hopefully that's a trend.

 

But as for him being this winner -- drives me a little nuts :806:  And this isn't me picking on him but how I feel about the position in general.  it would be one thing if the teams he left slid after he left but they actually got better.  KC looks like a juggernaut with Alex gone.  SF made the superbowl the next year with Alex gone.  Is that some incidental occurrence both teams luckly struck on other winners too as successors otherwise their rosters were ho hum.  And when the 49ers didn't have a good defense Alex was surprisingly a loser and then just because a winner coincidentally when their defense emerged. 

 

The kicker to me is if the team is privately celebrating that Alex is just a winner and that's why they are 6-3 they are having fun with the beat guys who are covering the team and giving them a different rap.  Mike Jones who I gather is still plugged in with the team said yesterday that the coaches know they need to get much more out of the passing game.  That's the 4th beat type reporter who have said so. 

 

I gather to some that point is obvious.  But to others they sell Alex's play right now in odd way where Alex is both playing poorly and they are winning because of him -- because hey Alex is a winner.  That's not the vibe i get even a little from beat guys who saying they have talked to the coaching staff -- where the comments have ranged by "frustrated" to "very frustrated" to "surprise its taking Alex this long to adjust."  The positive thing I hear is they think they can fix it. 

 

The one thing that has gone under the radar is the special teams, ranked #4 by football outsiders.  Last year it was terrible.  Defense is better.  Running game better.  The whole team is better.  What would Alex do with a crap special teams, crap defense, Robert Kelley as the featured back -- in other words the 2017 roster.  I don't think that hot.  There is a value of course to not turning the ball over but if that was the be all and end all -- doesn't seem like privately the coaching staff agrees. 

 

 

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11 minutes ago, Darrell Green Fan said:

 

As we discussed in the other thread what Alex Smith did in SF is about as relevant as what Donovan McNabb did in Philly or how well Mark Brunell played in Jacksonville. He's just not the same QB now and of course his win totals were a result of a great defense. 

Alex Smith is the same guy now that he  was then.  That’s the point.  He just doesn’t turn the ball over.  That’s who he has always been.  You can win with him at QB is all I’m saying.  

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QB rating is typically better for Alex than QBR.   Though I just checked his overall scores for both and they are about the same, 20 and 21. 

 

Comparison to NFL passer rating. ESPN claims QBR is a more complete and meaningful alternative to the passer rating, which remains the official NFL measure of quarterback performance. ... Additionally, passer rating double counts completion percentage, favoring quarterbacks who tend to throw screens and other short passes.

 

It's kind of weird the QB rating is good for him in the red zone.  Not sure how that adds up with so many bad stats in the mix.   Alex's completion rate is among the bottom of QBs in both within the 20-10 yard lines and 0-10.  And he's near the bottom in TDs.  He is ranked 29th in TD percentage.  The team is ranked 23rd in red zone scoring percentage.  But no INTs -- and I recall reading somewhere QB rating weighs heavily INTs.  QBR has a bigger soup of variables. 

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30 minutes ago, -JB- said:

Alex Smith is the same guy now that he  was then.  That’s the point.  He just doesn’t turn the ball over.  That’s who he has always been.  You can win with him at QB is all I’m saying.  

 

 Its good that he protects the ball, but when its needed he still protects the ball, when he should be taking chances. There are teams in the league that can be dinked and dunked all game, but the crucial point comes when playoff contention comes, when opponents become stronger, and can score points, and this is where he fails. Its one thing to protect the ball, but eventually the time comes where a QB HAS to take chances but he won't pull the trigger, and maybe hopes to catch a break here and there while playing the style of football he's most comfortable with.

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9 hours ago, Morneblade said:

 

 

And people wonder why I get grouchy at times talking about Alex Smith. It's not so much Alex, but his supporters, and the "alternative facts" thing that irks me.

 

"Top Passer Rating in the Red Zone"..................is 25th.

 

Well hell, what is considered BAD then? There are 32 teams, so like......56th? Because "reasons"? :wtf:

 

 

I get grouchy when stat spewers think they know it all......that’s the point about stats, you can make them say what you want and there’s always an alternative fact to support baseless ideas. 

 

Alex Smith and the Redskins are 6-3, no one who watches this team and is impressed so far with the pass game.  But, it has not stopped them from being 6-3.  Time will tell what happens with the last half of season, usually we are already out of any playoff or meaningful football games.  I am just gonna enjoy it and like the thread says, “Back Alex Smith.” 

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10 hours ago, Bigmuss1 said:

Alex needs to continue his top rating in the red zone!  This will help with more opportunities!!  Let’s beat Houston!!!

It's ok man..you know where you can make these excellent comments and not get laughed at...Hail ya, keep it up Smith..I appreciate the wins in the w l columns..Beat the Texans!!

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1 hour ago, -JB- said:

Alex Smith is the same guy now that he  was then.  That’s the point.  He just doesn’t turn the ball over.  That’s who he has always been.  You can win with him at QB is all I’m saying.  

 

His legs are clearly not the same, many of us have noticed how much slower he looks as a Dallas lineman ran him down.  Father TIme is an undefeated opponent and Smith is not immune to this, It's also easy to avoid turnovers when you throw 7 yard passes on 3rd and 11. 

 

In addition 2 contending teams felt he was holding them back and went with another QB, and that was when he was in his prime.   So if your goal is 9-7 and a first round exit he's your man, or at least he was.  I'm looking for more than that. 

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10 hours ago, Morneblade said:

 

 

And people wonder why I get grouchy at times talking about Alex Smith. It's not so much Alex, but his supporters, and the "alternative facts" thing that irks me.

 

"Top Passer Rating in the Red Zone"..................is 25th.

 

Well hell, what is considered BAD then? There are 32 teams, so like......56th? Because "reasons"? :wtf:

 

 

 

Hmm, the data below shows him to be 2nd (unless we think this is jsut made up - not being a smart ass - It happens but i do not think so here. I agree it seems odd. But it is what it is. 4th is not 25th and it is in the top for passer rating in the RZ. He is **** most everywhere else so overall he is bottom 3rd. But the data is what it is. 

 

You can call it selective facts but not alternative facts. 

 

image.png.00d5b0011d6f870286fda703a6af9ad8.png

 

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20 minutes ago, Darrell Green Fan said:

 

His legs are clearly not the same, many of us have noticed how much slower he looks as a Dallas lineman ran him down.  Father TIme is an undefeated opponent and Smith is not immune to this, It's also easy to avoid turnovers when you throw 7 yard passes on 3rd and 11. 

 

In addition 2 contending teams felt he was holding them back and went with another QB, and that was when he was in his prime.   So if your goal is 9-7 and a first round exit he's your man, or at least he was.  I'm looking for more than that. 

Man, if I had Mahomes waiting in the wings, I’d trade Alex Smith too.  

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1 hour ago, KDawg said:

 

How much of that is due to him, though, and the style of offense we run in general? I think people often forget that the offense impacts the defense impacts the special teams impacts the offense. It's not as neat as just putting things in a bubble. I'm not saying you don't have a point. But the comparison doesn't just stop at the defense.

 

Sure it does.  How often did the defense put the offense in better positions last year compared to this year?  And the running game certainly has been a bigger impact than last season.  

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These sorts of numbers are misleading because we are not looking at the number of attempts vs. the number of completions in the RZ, which would help us gauge and distinguish the talent ability of these QB's.  How many times have we even gotten there and not scored?  A lot.  How many times have we gotten there and settled for a FG? Many.  Plus a dink and dunker is going to get into the RZ a lot but the EZ probably not as much.  So the completion % is more about 54% for Alex.   

 

When you look at the stats of attempts vs. completion in the RZ Alex is 24th on the list: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2018/redzone-passing.htm

 

And this is probably why Moses was saying the other day publicly that the Offense has to start doing their part and score points.  That they have to take pressure off of the Defense and start scoring points when they get into the RZ.  

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