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Let's All Get Behind Alex Smith! Or Not!! (M.E.T.) NO kirk talk---that goes in ATN forum

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Some sunshine, I am ok with this point.  The later point of the article about playing high scoring offenses we are about to see that play out as I mentioned earlier.  That should be interesting.

'

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2018/10/29/jay-gruden-again-says-redskins-passing-offense-is-set-take-off-were-close/?utm_term=.869e2194421e

October 29 at 5:49 PM

In what has become a familiar routine this season, the head coach of the top team in the NFC East stood behind a lectern the day after a key victory and talked about an offense that has yet to come to life.

“We’re close,” Redskins Coach Jay Gruden said.

Which was similar to last Monday’s: “We will get better on offense, the numbers will come.”

But despite the appearances of a passing game that has produced yardage totals of 156, 175 and 178 in the last three weeks, Gruden insists the productivity will get better. He swears the timing will come, a bond between receivers and quarterback will be made and Washington will move with the quick, methodical precision the organization’s leaders imagined, last spring, when they traded for quarterback Alex Smith.

After spending hours watching game tape of Sunday’s 20-13 victory over the New York Giants, Gruden said he sees small signs the Redskins will be able to pass effectively as the team moves into the middle of the season.

 

...It is one thing, however, to rely on a strong defense and a running game to beat teams like Arizona, New York and Dallas, who have not had powerful, high-scoring offenses this year. But the Redskins have not shown they can play from behind this year — something that was shown in losses to Indianapolis and New Orleans.

Looming ahead in the next three weeks are Atlanta, Tampa Bay and Houston. All are teams with offenses that can quickly put up lots of points. The Bucs have produced the most yards per game in the NFL this season, while the Falcons rank seventh and the Texans are 15th. Washington will probably have to get into higher-scoring games than they have in recent game to win. So far, the Redskins are 5-0 in games in which they have held a lead and not given it up. They have lost the two games in which they fell behind, and have just two offensive touchdowns in the second half this year.

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@Skinsinparadise

 

I appreciate you sharing the information. I’ve lost what you’re arguing (not being snarky). Just to be clear, my argument is me believing at least 75% of Alex’s rushing yardage comes from broken play scrambles.  

 

Yes, Andy Reid incorporates a lot of RPO into his schemes. My point much of Smith’s rushing yardage comes from him scrambling on broken plays. Designed QB runs are a higher risk to QBs. QB runs are most often used in the opponents red zone or potentially a critical first down. Newton is the only true duel threat guy a QB run scheme is designed around at high volume. 

 

So, my point is that I believe at least 75% of Smith’s rushing yardage comes from broken scramble plays. Unfortunately I don’t have a specific stat to prove this and realize support is lacking for my argument (If anyone has where this can be found please share). Yes, in Reid’s RPO scheme the QB is a threat to run at a high volume, but never will they be used to run at a high volume. 

 

Guys like Smith —who don’t have elite speed, built like Newton, or crafty like Wilson— designed runs are used as specialty packages to convert on high value plays (red zone, critical first downs). 

 

Another reason why I believe Alex’s totals are inconsistent, is due to unpredictable nature of broken QB scrambles from year to year. 

Edited by wit33

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9 minutes ago, oraphus said:

 

No one is going to give up a 2nd or 3rd for Smith when he is playing like its 1970.. in todays NFL. Most teams can not survive with this level of production from a QB position. Skins are an anomaly in this regard due to the strong D and good running game. If either of the two falters due to teams figuring it out or injuries the team is done winning. We are basically the 2017 Jaguars.. see how that worked out.

2 things.

 

1. Go look at Tyrod Taylor's statistics from last year with Buffalo. He netted a 3rd. You drastically underestimate what a QB who doesn't just screw it up will fetch.

2. It is not easy to stop a really good run game and defense. Just like it's not easy to stop a potent aerial attack. I mean you could say that about any team's strength, "just take it away and you'll lose."

 

We aren't the Rams. Or the Chiefs. Or the Saints. Or Patriots most likely. But I like our chances against most everybody else, and if that's not enough for you then you are just moving goal posts. Rome wasn't built in a day. A strong regular season and post season victory would provide the foundation to become what some of those teams have already become. Especially with a healthy cap situation and 9 draft picks in next years draft.

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I thought that when we got Alex that we would at least even out from the loss of Kirk. To me, at least for right now, there are negative and positives. Negatives would be that Kirk has a better arm and a little more accurate. Positives are a little more mobile and less turnovers. Also, longer stretches of the field for the D to rest up more. But that credit goes to AP alone. Now the cap hits for Kirk for the next 3 years are 24M, 29M, and 31M. The hits for Alex the next 3 (probably go with the potential out after) is 18M, 20M, 21M with a 13M dead. Someone on the Vikes board said that by the time the Vikes have a decent OLine, it'll be time for Kirk to bail. I agree with everyone that we should have locked up Cousins in '16. But I definitely disagreed with trying to get him at this years offseason. It would have cost us at least $29M a year. If we matched Minny he would have gone there. And if he didn't have the same agent as McCown, it would have cost us $31M. Any matchings with any city and he'd still be gone. Some say that if he were still here, we'd be a SB contender. I really doubt that... even with Minny. And definitely not this year. The SB contenders for this year in the NFC are the Rams and Saints. And as unproductive as Alex is this year, I'm starting to think my initial guess of us going 7-9 at best should be changed to maybe 10-6 with 9-7 worse. Of course thats due mostly because of the D and a .500 or less remaining schedule. To at least get to the playoffs it's rooting for any AFC team that plays an NFC team. That'll help. 

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@Burgold It sounds like you jinxed Allen or he’s just a living jinx.  I’m sure his thread is about to get some action. Russell just alluded to the Skins losing the grievance against Scot.  Says he would discuss shortly but I just got home and didn’t feel like sitting in the truck and waiting on it.

 

edit: Nevermind, just googled and the post says it was ruled in favor of the Skins.

 

Thou shall never doubt Bruce again.

Edited by BatteredFanSyndrome

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20 minutes ago, wit33 said:

@Skinsinparadise

 

I appreciate you sharing the information. I’ve lost what you’re arguing (not being snarky). Just to be clear, my argument is me believing at least 75% of Alex’s rushing yardage comes from broken play scrambles.  

 

So, my point is that I believe at least 75% of Smith’s rushing yardage comes from broken scramble plays. Unfortunately I don’t have a specific stat to prove this and realize support is lacking for my argument (If anyone has where this can be found please share). Yes, in Reid’s RPO scheme the QB is a threat to run at a high volume, but never will they be used to run at a high volume. 

 

Guys like Smith —who don’t have elite speed, built like Newton, or crafty like Wilson— designed runs are used as specialty packages to convert on high value plays (red zone, critical first downs). 

 

Another reason why I believe Alex’s totals are inconsistent, is due to unpredictable nature of broken QB scrambles from year to year. 

 

My point is that he ran more in designed runs in KC than here where he actually took off as a runner.  I've read about it many times but I saw it too when I rewatched KC's games last year.  Cooley was even talking about it in some segment last week.  KC didn't just go RPO they also did some RO as I posted.  For the RO to work -- the QB at times has to show they are willing to run.  Heck on the rare times we ran it here, even Kirk actually took off a bunch of times. 

 

As for the high volume point, that's not what I said.  I said more.  And by more I mean more than just one designed run every 3 games or so like they are doing now.  I'd do it 2 times or so in game. 

 

 He's the 14th leading rusher for QBs this year, not that far ahead of ionically Kirk Cousins.  Last year he was the 6th leading rusher.  Tough for me to believe that's because he just scrambled a lot more in KC.  He had one off year in that department in 2016 where he was middle of the pack.  His other years in KC -- ranked 4th, 8th, 6th. 

Edited by Skinsinparadise

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One of the biggest improvements we have seen this year is the opponents starting field position. This games from good special teams play but more importantly few turnovers. Last year we had about 17 drives where the opponent started in OUR territory, this year we are near the tops in the league on oppoenents starting field position. I'll see if I can find that stat again and post it.

 

He isn't putting up the numbers Kirk did, but he's paying off so far where I expected him to and it's having a bigger impact than I thought.

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No doubt Alex has been disappointing thus far this season. But I'd like to point out a positive.  He made a huge play in yesterday's game that possibly saved the day. After AP's fumble he chased down Vernon on what probably would have been a fumble return for a TD. That was huge. That would have tied the game at 10-10 and who knows what would have happened from there. Instead they get the ball at around our 40, the D holds and the lead is preserved. Kudos To Alex for a great hustle play there.

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So here is the week by week Alex this year vs. Kirk last year (each through 7 games). Again I do this mostly for my own amusement. Also, since the Kirk vs. Alex will only rage on more as the season goes on, seems like it's best to embrace it. 

 

Some interesting things are developing - 

Kirk has more yds, a better comp %, and easily more TDs. However, there are some interesting 0s Alex had last week. He took 0 sacks - this being a major complaint early that he was taking too many sacks. He also had 0 int or fumbles. All in all, through 7 gms last year Kirk had more than doubles the TOs Alex as - 7 to 3. 

 

Think about that - 0 sacks, 0 int, AND 0 fumbles. No drive killing mistakes. None. Not a single one. Yes, he has some errant throws that killed some promising drives. And this is not to say he played well. He did not. But for me this is a sign he feeling the offense a little more each week. He is settling down. He is slowing developing a good rapport with Doctson. Not a kind of breakout game. But 5 catches - several of them in critical situations and for 1st downs. He is starting to trust Josh and that's a good thing. 

 

And the most important stat W/L - Kirk 4-3  Alex - 5-2

 

Yes I know the D is better, running game better, etc - it's still a results driven game, at least that what I am told whenever someone does not like the data, well forget those it's just wins and losses. I don't happen to completely agree but it is the most visible metric and should not be ignored any more than should it be the only measure. For me, it's not that i think Alex is contributing more the wins than Kirk did last year, it's that I am very happy that with less than expected performances by Alex the team is still 5-2. I believe the passing game will continue to improve. Will it even e juggernaut? I seriously doubt it. Could it be at least potent enough to make a solid come from behind win if needed? Yes, I think it can. Will it? Who knows. But at least for now the team is winning. 

 

Atlanta will be interesting. Thier Off is not as good as people think. I live in Atl and so I see them all the time. They are more reputation than actual performance so far this year. And their D is not good. They have some speed but are undersized and should be able to manhandled by by our Oline. People may not like it, but I wee a game plan that includes another strong commitment to the run game. Beat them down. Then take some shots when they are tired. 

 

Anyway, here are the numbers so far. 

 

 

image.thumb.png.61dab22c44c3200be5a56c4e0da656af.png

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4 hours ago, Burgold said:

Good ole stand-bys like our irritation with Bruce Allen and Dan Snyder? I mean that's the go to.

 

On that note, who'd have thunk that the "I hate Bruce Allen" thread would fall completely off the first page!? Now, we still hate Bruce Allen and think he's done a terrible job for seven years, but suddenly, his last two drafts look pretty good, the defense is killing it and we see depth on the team. We're still lacking stars (though it's possible that we may be seeing the beginning of some on the D Line and the reinvention of one at running back), but for three weeks almost no one has burned the Front Office in effigy.

 

That's gotta be a record!!!

 

Right now, I understand the scorn some Redskins fans feel toward Kirk. It turns out he jilted us. We're the dumpees. We get to feel bitter. Sure, Bruce was an abusive boyfriend and no one really begrudges Cousins escaping, but at the same time for two years... Kirk lied to us fans about his interest in being a part of this team. We loved him and were ready to love him forever. He planned to bail even as he was whispering sweet nothings in our ear. 

 

I think that's why some feel differently about him than they do other free agent departures. Kirk never negotiated in good faith. I accept the notion to a degree that Allen didn't either, but while Allen low-balled, that's kind of normal for an initial offer. The idea is to counter and negotiate. I still put most of the blame on Bruce, but Kirk did play a role.

 

OTOH, if it turns out that the Redskins are a good team without Kirk and that probably means a playoff team (something that Kirk accomplished once) then I think most of the animosity goes away. Mind you, there are still Redskins fans who Deion Sanders for what he did to us so who knows how long the grudge lasts.

I'm not sure there is a single thing in this post that I agree with.  And, I'm not trying to sound like a jerk, but you seem to have very selective memory. 

 

First, the Bruce Allen thread was on the first page just earlier today, and as I write this, is fourth from the top of the first page, two spots higher than this thread.  Bruce Allen didn't orchestrate the picks for our drafts, so he should not get any credit for them.  This QB fiasco is his doing, and he should absolutely lose his job over how horribly he handled both Kirk and then the trade.  i see that many folks around here have not moved on from that very point.

 

Second, Kirk was not the one negotiating in bad faith.  There are a few folks that WANT to believe that because I guess it makes them sleep better at night, but Kirk is a pretty straight forward guy.  There were plenty of people reporting behind the scenes that Kirk was wanted to stay if the FO offered him a fair-market deal.  He never once received that.  He initially made a more than reasonable offer to stay and the FO (Bruce Allen) never responded.  Bruce couldn't be bothered even letting Kirk and his agent know that the team wanted to see more or that they weren't considering his offer or even that they were going to franchise tag him the first time.  Bruce let that be known through the media. 

 

Cousins came in, played like crazy, breaking nearly every Redskins' passing record, but had no support to help him win (it's always interesting how many folks just conveniently forget all the games that Kirk had this team ahead or took the lead at the end just to have the defense blow it, like the Lions and Saints).  Still, the front office offered no deal.  Wouldn't even meet with him.  They franchised him a second time.  At that point, then, Kirk started to waiver on whether he wanted to be here.  Still, as was reported by Reid and a few others, he would have stayed if the FO would have played ball.  They didn't.  They put one low-ball offer on the table, knowing damn well that it wasn't close to what would be accepted.  All so Allen could save face to the press and say, "Well, schucks, I tried."  

 

The sad thing is that there are so many folks that celebrated that.  Kirk leaving or not, we are still left with Bruce Allen.  Any way you slice it, if you're slicing it honestly, we, Redskins Nation lose.

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6 minutes ago, bakedtater1 said:

I've got Alex Smith's back.

 

I appreciate Alex Smith

In before the "appreciate how bad he is" posts.

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I keep seeing posts about a " big difference " in 4-3 vs 5-2.

Maybe I need to go back to pre-k, but that's just 1 game. The difference in that could also be looked at by the strength of the opponents.

 

Just for the record, the only team the Redskins have beaten this year with a winning record is the Panthers.

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2 hours ago, skins island connection said:

I keep seeing posts about a " big difference " in 4-3 vs 5-2.

Maybe I need to go back to pre-k, but that's just 1 game. The difference in that could also be looked at by the strength of the opponents.

 

Just for the record, the only team the Redskins have beaten this year with a winning record is the Panthers.

 

I have to assume you mean me since i am literally the only person on this page anyway that said anything about record, and certainly the only one recent. I actually never said it was a big difference. I said it was a big metric. Also, not sure who teaches that level of math in Pre-k but maybe it's just because I am old. But I digress as you did. 

 

Yes, it's just one game - i said nothing else. Just one game. I also said it's not the only metric. So I only can speak for myself, but I never said what you are seeming being defensive about. I do have to wonder what the conversation would be if the team were 2-5. It's still only one game difference. I mean it's only one game. 

 

As for teams with winning records - you play who you play. And all NFL teams can beat any other NFL team. But Ok I will play along. Of the 4 wins last year - only 2 were against winning teams. Not sure what the fuss is. It's only one game. 

Edited by goskins10

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1 hour ago, skins island connection said:

Just for the record, the only team the Redskins have beaten this year with a winning record is the Panthers.

 

Same with the Vikes, and that would be the Eagles at 4-4

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9 hours ago, bobandweave said:

Edit. Saw the message, sorry for my previous post. Taking time off to avoid a Hi there. 

 

What was Diggs to do? The defender was in his face. If Diggs kept running he's getting a penalty. Kirk should have seen that and not thrown the ball. That's the difference between Alex and Kirk. Kirk throws it and loses his team the game, and people still defend him. Alex would see the coverage and either take a sack or run with it. I'm absolutely done speaking with you. 

 

 

I’m glad you made that edit - I can see what was there before. It saved you from a penalty. Just.

 

Now a general warning to all in this thread - and frankly any thread. Attacking or insulting other posters will not be tolerated on this board. Attacking their logic or arguments is encouraged. Mind you it’s a lot better if you do that with facts and back up your own opinion rather than just rubbishing what they have to say. But under no circumstance are you allowed to attack other posters personally. 

 

Period.

 

We have had issues before with QB threads. I guess the emotion goes with the position and people do get attached to ‘their’ guy (or not as the case may be). But keep it civil. There are eyes on this thread now - and next time edits will not save anyone.

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It wasn’t long ago when there was actual discussion on the board amongst folks who like BMitch so much, they think he should be the coach.

 

He was on the radio earlier today and Jay Gruden Live echoing most everything negative being said here in this thread.  Making it very clear that the team is not winning because of Smith.

 

I guess BMitch just can’t get over Kirk.

Edited by BatteredFanSyndrome
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Hey maybe we get to the playoffs with Alex being Brunell 2.0

Maybe we even win a playoff game too.

 

The best Redskins team in 20+ years had a QB almost just like Alex, actually slightly worse IMO. Brunell WON a playoff game with 41 yards passing which is an NFL record of ineptitude. 41 yards!!! That guy was also Super Smart, just like Alex is being touted as.  Naturally we lost to the Seahags the following week. 

 

Remember this?

 

Redskins' defense leads Washington past Tampa Bay

TAMPA, Fla. (AP) -- Joe Gibbs' teams have a knack for peaking at
the right time, and these Washington Redskins are no different.

 

 

With the Hall of Fame coach back in the playoffs for the first
time in 13 years, the Redskins -- at least on defense -- looked like
a Super Bowl contender again in beating the Tampa Bay Buccaneers
17-10 in the NFC wild-card round Saturday.

The victory was the sixth straight for the Redskins (11-6), who
won despite gaining only 120 yards on offense -- the lowest total in
NFL history for a winning team in a postseason game, according to
the Elias Sports Bureau.

"It's been a tough fight these last six weeks," said
linebacker Marcus Washington, who recovered a fumble and had a
fourth-quarter interception. "We ain't ready to go home yet, so
we're going to keep sawing wood."

LaVar Arrington's interception set up Clinton Portis' 6-yard
touchdown run, and Sean Taylor returned a fumble 51 yards for
another first-quarter score for the Redskins, who rebounded from a
three-game losing streak to win five straight to get into the
playoffs.

 

I'm not a fan of Alex, never have been, but if the defense keeps getting better and Peterson doesn't get injured all season, then maybe we can finally get to the 2nd round of the paloffs. I don't see it happening but stranger things have happened. IMO that's about the cap on this team and I don't see a guy like McCoy getting us anywhere. He's a 2TO a game guy without the upside required to make up for it. Alex would have to turn into a better than 2017 Alex overnight for us to win any more than that I think. Not having a good backup makes the decision easier. Imagine if we had 2nd year Kirk backing up Alex. But that would mean that Alex would possibly be playing better too. 

 

 I just don't see any chance at all that Alex wins a playoff game vs a team with an offense that will score 25+ on us. I mean, the Saints game was pathetic in the 2nd half down by over 20 yet playing like it was a 7 game series. I know that great playoff defense is how Eli Manning got 2 rings though. He won a lot of games 17-14 and he gets credit where his defense actually dominated games, and the 49ers KR fumbled twice in the same quarter. Our defense is actually better than those Giants defenses were during the regular season. Hey, stranger things have happened just not for the Redskins since 1987. We'd have to be the extremely lucky team again to win more than a single playoff game and maybe even some help from the refs like the Giants. Also it wouldn't hurt if the teams we play in the playoffs are starting their backup QB, like the Bears and Vikings in 1987. If that happens and we win then what if we face a flawed team in the SB like we did with the Broncos that year? So lets hope that teams like the Lions, Cowboys, and Seahawks make the playoffs and then we play somebody like the Titans in the SB, haha.

 

Championship!!! ?

 

At least the rest of the team is finally good enough for us to win a bunch of these close games again like in 2005. It's just too bad that they had to pay Alex so much for being mostly a non factor. But I didn't pick this team to win more than about 6-7 games and they are already at 5 so somebody is doing something right at least. Finally. 

 

I don't really want to start being optimistic though because I know what sort of game happens in that situation so I'm going to continue to be negative until I see a new Lombardi being hoisted in DC, haha. That will still probably never happen but hey they are already 5-2 with some scrubby teams coming up. Usually starting 5-2 or even 6-2 means that a big long losing streak is coming up though. This is still the Redskins after all so I will still not be surprised if a 6-2 start ends up being an 8-8 season. It's just what the Redskins specialize in for most of 3 decades now, Mediocrity.

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We can't ever have both sides of the ball working well together. In the playoff years of Sean Taylor, we had great defenses and mediocre offenses. In the RG III, Kirk Cousins playoff years, we had great offenses and really bad defenses. Now this year we're back to having a great defense and bad offense. 

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6 hours ago, NickyJ said:

In before the "appreciate how bad he is" posts.

You truly think Alex Smith is a bad qb?

1 hour ago, Murphs56 said:

We can't ever have both sides of the ball working well together. In the playoff years of Sean Taylor, we had great defenses and mediocre offenses. In the RG III, Kirk Cousins playoff years, we had great offenses and really bad defenses. Now this year we're back to having a great defense and bad offense. 

We're winning games..bad offense?..

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11 hours ago, HardcoreZorn said:

And crying over a QB who looks to be the exact same as he was with us, with a team that EVERYBODY thought was better than ours, who now has a worse record halfway through the season is just as idiotic. Alex not being great doesn't necessarily mean we screwed up by not resigning Kirk. If anything it's justifying it. Just wait till Cousins cap hits balloon after this year and guys like Thielen/Waynes etc. need new contracts. That team will suffer the same fate as Seattle/Baltimore before you know it, but at least with those teams they already got their teams rings.

 

We need to turn our attention toward the draft for a QB while Smith holds down the fort. Your best shot to win multiple SBs is with a QB on a rookie contract anyway.

 

There is not a person around the league who would not agree that Kirk has played far better than Alex Smith this year.  If you are going to continue to use Kirk's won/loss record in Minnesota without considering all the other factors involved I will once again remind you that Sonny had a terrible win/loss record too. It's never all on the QB.

 

Now let's talk long term. This is the best we are going to get from a 34 year old QB whose wheels are deserting him. In 2 years Minnesota will still have a good QB and we will have Mark Brunell.  Then what?  We go back into the draft, a draft where the Redskins have literally not found a good QB since Sammy Baugh. There they will spend a high pick, a pick that could be used on another top prospect at a low price which will offset some of the cap hit Kirk would have caused, and try to beat the odds and find a QB who is better than the one they let get away.

 

i invite you to defend this long  term strategy of finding a QB who will be better than Cousins given how difficult it is to find a good QB through the draft. Ask Tampa how it worked out, or all the countless other teams who hitched their wagon to the wrong QB taken in the draft.    

 

 

Edited by Darrell Green Fan
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4 hours ago, bakedtater1 said:

You truly think Alex Smith is a bad qb?

We're winning games..bad offense?..

25th in Points per game. It's not great. 

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11 hours ago, goskins10 said:

However, there are some interesting 0s Alex had last week. He took 0 sacks - this being a major complaint early that he was taking too many sacks. He also had 0 int or fumbles. All in all, through 7 gms last year Kirk had more than doubles the TOs Alex as - 7 to 3. 

 

Think about that - 0 sacks, 0 int, AND 0 fumbles. No drive killing mistakes. None. Not a single one. Yes, he has some errant throws that killed some promising drives. And this is not to say he played well. He did not. But for me this is a sign he feeling the offense a little more each week. He is settling down. He is slowing developing a good rapport with Doctson. Not a kind of breakout game. But 5 catches - several of them in critical situations and for 1st downs. He is starting to trust Josh and that's a good thing. 

 

And the most important stat W/L - Kirk 4-3  Alex - 5-2

 

image.thumb.png.61dab22c44c3200be5a56c4e0da656af.png

 

Alex Smith has two things Kirk didn't have last year: the benefit of a run game, and an offensive line that isn't in shambles.  

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Can we change the title of this thread to Alex vs Kirk, so the people who want to have a conversation about our current QB and his pros and cons can start a new thread?  

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