Veryoldschool

Let's All Get Behind Alex Smith! Or Not!! (M.E.T.) NO kirk talk---that goes in ATN forum

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9 hours ago, BRAVEONTHEWARPATH93 said:

 

Benoit said that months ago on his podcast and that really concerned me then. He really knows his stuff and does a lot of film analysis.

 

If this is correct it could get real ugly because the Skins don’t have run game and a dominating defense to carry the team.  A great passing attack carried a poor team to mediocrity from 2015-2017, I don’t know what the Skins and Smith himself were thinking if this is true.  

Edited by Veryoldschool

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I've voiced my concerns over the amount of check-downs Alex throws and the apparent lack of throws to wide receivers, so I thought that I would crunch the numbers just to check (yeah I'm a bit of a nerd).

 

PositionStats4Wks.png.6246d3232c2f2b7e1a10309090fb0017.png

 

So the numbers don't really confirm my recollection of the distribution of passes. Maybe I remember the completions more than the targets, maybe the WR throws were less catch-able than the checkdowns, I dunno.

 

I realise that stats like these don't really prove or disprove anything, but I thought that I would share anyway.

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41 minutes ago, London Kev said:

I've voiced my concerns over the amount of check-downs Alex throws and the apparent lack of throws to wide receivers, so I thought that I would crunch the numbers just to check (yeah I'm a bit of a nerd).

 

PositionStats4Wks.png.6246d3232c2f2b7e1a10309090fb0017.png

 

So the numbers don't really confirm my recollection of the distribution of passes. Maybe I remember the completions more than the targets, maybe the WR throws were less catch-able than the checkdowns, I dunno.

 

I realise that stats like these don't really prove or disprove anything, but I thought that I would share anyway.

 

I'd say 2 things on the receiver front that haven't materialized though we heard differently in the off season.

 

A. Crowder -- Alex loves himself some Crowder and watch them work together.  So far 13 catches and on pace for a career low. 

 

B. Doctson.  That Kirk didn't have the guts to throw 50-50 balls to Doctson.  Alex will.  Doctson should have a better season for it.  Evidenced by how more willing Alex is to fling the ball around in practice.  

 

But both things can still play out.  Doesn't look that way thus far though especially the Doctson part.  The Doctson part doesn't surprise me, I called it out as likely BS at the time.  the Crowder part does though surprise me some.  Alex likes to throw up the seam so a shifty receiver who gets open up the seam in shallow routes would seem ideal for him.  So that might still be coming.

Edited by Skinsinparadise

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Even if Doctson does play, I just don’t see Alex being the guy that’s going to put it up and out there for him to go get it.  That sounded like a fairy tale in training camp and moreso now.

 

As for Crowder, he’s in the same category as Jordan Reed for me, in that it’s depressing they haven’t been the focal point all along.  They should be the guys seeing targets every weekend.  It gets old hearing about taking what the defense gives them.  Make something happen.

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1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I'd say 2 things on the receiver front that haven't materialized though we heard differently in the off season.

 

A. Crowder -- Alex loves himself some Crowder and watch them work together.  So far 13 catches and on pace for a career low. 

 

B. Doctson.  That Kirk didn't have the guts to throw 50-50 balls to Doctson.  Alex will.  Doctson should have a better season for it.  Evidenced by how more willing Alex is to fling the ball around in practice.  

 

But both things can still play out.  Doesn't look that way thus far though especially the Doctson part.  The Doctson part doesn't surprise me, I called it out as likely BS at the time.  the Crowder part does though surprise me some.  Alex likes to throw up the seam so a shifty receiver who gets open up the seam in shallow routes would seem ideal for him.  So that might still be coming.

 

Yeah, it's the seam routes that are the most baffling to me. One of the excuses given for poor production after the Colts game was that they played zone all day. Surely that should have suited Alex and there should have been more seams to be found than just the shallow underneath stuff.

 

I get that he's a careful, methodical QB who seems overly concerned about interceptions, but when trailing by multiple scores sometimes you just have to release your inner Grossman.  

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3 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I'd say 2 things on the receiver front that haven't materialized though we heard differently in the off season.

 

A. Crowder -- Alex loves himself some Crowder and watch them work together.  So far 13 catches and on pace for a career low. 

 

B. Doctson.  That Kirk didn't have the guts to throw 50-50 balls to Doctson.  Alex will.  Doctson should have a better season for it.  Evidenced by how more willing Alex is to fling the ball around in practice.  

 

But both things can still play out.  Doesn't look that way thus far though especially the Doctson part.  The Doctson part doesn't surprise me, I called it out as likely BS at the time.  the Crowder part does though surprise me some.  Alex likes to throw up the seam so a shifty receiver who gets open up the seam in shallow routes would seem ideal for him.  So that might still be coming.

 

Admittedly, I was hopeful Alex would give Doctson the “coach called deep shots down field” (not to be confused with me thinking Alex is a throw deep consistently kind of player), but that’s not materialized. Richardson has gotten a few shots that you can tell Gruden called the shot and Alex was taking the shot no matter what almost. 

 

Crowder for me continues to be overrated and is just solid at the position. Not that he shouldn’t be used more or Jay and crew shouldn’t scheme it up for Alex to give him more opportunities. The slot WR is essentially an extension of the run game for all 32 teams, and Alex needs this element as much as any QB in the second to third tier. 

 

The hope like you mentioned, with time some of this gets figured out. 

Edited by wit33

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12 minutes ago, wit33 said:

 

Crowder for me continues to be overrated and is just solid at the position. Not that he shouldn’t be used more or Jay and crew shouldn’t scheme it up for Alex to give him more opportunities. The slot WR is essentially an extension of the run game for all 32 teams, and Alex needs this element as much as any QB in the second to third tier. 

 

The hope like you mentioned, with time some of this gets figured out. 

 

One of the narratives some beat guys echoed when they let Garcon and D-Jax go was inside the building some thought that Crowder was the better receiver of the three so even as the slot guy he'd be a #1 type.  A competing narrative was Crowder's prowess was partly driven by the other receivers attracting coverage their way.  So far its looking like B.  I still think Crowder is a good WR but he hasn't been anything special.  

Edited by Skinsinparadise
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3 hours ago, London Kev said:

So the numbers don't really confirm my recollection of the distribution of passes. Maybe I remember the completions more than the targets, maybe the WR throws were less catch-able than the checkdowns, I dunno.

 

I realise that stats like these don't really prove or disprove anything, but I thought that I would share anyway.

 

NextGen Stats has some good stuff that visualizes it...

 

pass-chart_SMI031126_2018-reg-5_15390558

 

Weeks 1-4 here's his passer rating to various zones:

 

passer-rating-vs-league-avg_SMI031126_20

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3 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I'd say 2 things on the receiver front that haven't materialized though we heard differently in the off season.

 

A. Crowder -- Alex loves himself some Crowder and watch them work together.  So far 13 catches and on pace for a career low. 

 

B. Doctson.  That Kirk didn't have the guts to throw 50-50 balls to Doctson.  Alex will.  Doctson should have a better season for it.  Evidenced by how more willing Alex is to fling the ball around in practice.  

 

But both things can still play out.  Doesn't look that way thus far though especially the Doctson part.  The Doctson part doesn't surprise me, I called it out as likely BS at the time.  the Crowder part does though surprise me some.  Alex likes to throw up the seam so a shifty receiver who gets open up the seam in shallow routes would seem ideal for him.  So that might still be coming.

 

I'm surprised at the lack of Crowder, but not by the Doctson numbers. Anyone that thought that Smith was going to throw a 50/50 ball to anyone, much less Doctson was lying to themselves. Cousins will do that, and it's the main reason he throws more INT's, he'll trust his receiver to make a play, and sometimes they don't.

 

Alex don't do that.

 

As far as the seem routes, I don't really expect this to "get fixed". We have 2 guys that murder people there, and it's not getting used now. Reed and Davis are basically uncoverable in those situations, and both are way down in catches. I don't think Alex is going to make that throw consistently, unless a defender falls down.

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14 hours ago, Veryoldschool said:

 

If this is correct it could get real ugly because the Skins don’t have run game and a dominating defense to carry the team.  A great passing attack carried a poor team to mediocrity from 2015-2017, I don’t know what the Skins and Smith himself were thinking if this is true.  

 

Alex Smith is a guy that throws the ball based on what the defense is and  the receiver being open based on the route against that defense.  The other possibility is the receiver can win early in a route.  If the defense being played requires the DB to get a jam, and he doesn't, then the receiver has won early in the route and likely will be open at the top of the route (or if you are running an out route, but can force the DB to take an inside position early, then the receiver won early in the route).  It isn't like he is waiting for the receiver to make his move, be open, and then throw the ball.  He knows the route, can see the defense, and sees the defender isn't going to be in a good position to make a play when the receiver makes his move.  He makes passes where either the receiver won early in the route or he can see that route is going to be winner against the coverage that is being played.

 

He isn't a guy that trust the receiver or himself with a good throw to win at the top of a route against a good defense.  He isn't going to say, the defense has the right defense played for this route and is in a good position, but if the guy ends the route well (e.g. makes a good cut), he'll be open for a blink of an eye and if I deliver the ball at the right time in the right window, we can complete that pass.

 

In defense of Smith, I don't think he's ever played with really good route runners, and I don't think the Redskins currently have really good route runners so depending on a guy to win based on ending the route well isn't necessarily a smart thing to do.  Especially, Smith doesn't have a particularly strong arm so if the receiver doesn't end the route well, it is more likely to end in trouble.  More than most starting NFL QBs, he's got to throw the ball that much before the receiver is going to end his route so is more dependent on the receiver ending the route well (in terms of timing and positioning), if he's going to play that way.

 

(I'll bet early in his career, when he was throwing more interceptions, he tried to do that more, and I'll bet his take home point from those interceptions was not to try to make that sort of play.)

 

Then a good run game becomes very important for Smith because the more guys you can drop into coverage, the less likely you are to have a route that is going to be winner based on a particular coverage.

 

Cousins was a guy that trusted his ability to throw balls to win at the top of the route even if the defense was in a good position and the receiver did not win early in the route or the route was not a winner based on the play call.

Edited by PeterMP
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I listened to the Cooley podcasts last night, he wouldn't even grade Alex, I think it was out of respect because it was so close to an F.

 

He said the WR's and TE's were open all day, he gave Crowder and PRich 80's and said Crowder was getting separation but his blocking was poor.

 

Reed only played 60% of the snaps.

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Too add on, Reid seems to be the one guy coming out of the WCO coaching tree that is okay with his QBs not regularly throwing ball based on winning at the top of routes (an interestingly he's the only guy that didn't come out of it as a QB-guy, but instead was a TE/OL coach).  The only time McNabb seemed comfortable to try to win a play based on making a good throw was when the play had broken down and he was throwing down the field on the move.

 

On a normal 3 step drop, McNabb didn't regularly make throws based on winning at the top of the route and was pretty much a see it throw it QB.  I believe Shanahan thought he was getting a Cutler like player (where Cutler always believed he could make a throw to win at the top of the route), but he wasn't.

 

If we've made a trade for another Reid QB when he have a WCO coach that wants his QB to make throws based on winning at the top of routes, the offense is going to likely continue to have issues (unless Gruden can adjust his plays or Smith can adjust the way he plays).

Edited by PeterMP
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The NO game is in the rearview mirror.  Alex and company get another chance this week and the got to deliver.

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5 hours ago, megared said:

 

NextGen Stats has some good stuff that visualizes it...

 

 

Weeks 1-4 here's his passer rating to various zones:

 

passer-rating-vs-league-avg_SMI031126_20

 

 

This is interesting I think I commented on this on the thread which I watched Alex warm up before the Arizona game.  He was very accurate throwing sort of intermediate out routes on the right but he struggled on the left. 

Edited by Skinsinparadise

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I remember in 2015, after the first few games everyone was screaming for Cousins to be benched.  The offense wasnt clicking and Kirk seemed lost.  It took about 5 weeks before he got comfortable and started really lighting it up.  Im hoping thats where Alex is.  I still think he is smarter with the ball and makes good decisions.  If we get the O-line playing better I think Alex will play much better each week and we will see more completions to WRs.  No need to panic, were in first place.  

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30 minutes ago, NeverSurrender said:

I remember in 2015, after the first few games everyone was screaming for Cousins to be benched.  The offense wasnt clicking and Kirk seemed lost.  It took about 5 weeks before he got comfortable and started really lighting it up.  Im hoping thats where Alex is.  I still think he is smarter with the ball and makes good decisions.  If we get the O-line playing better I think Alex will play much better each week and we will see more completions to WRs.  No need to panic, were in first place.  

Good point, I pointed out on a previous page this very thing, to which I only received a laughing emoticon lol. But I did say before the season I predicted it would take a little bit of time for the offense to get in sync. I just didn't expect the defense to look as lost as they did on monday. Alex was bad but I suspect he'll bounce back a bit and hopefully things start rolling on offense. Season in such limbo right now could see it going either way.

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46 minutes ago, NeverSurrender said:

I remember in 2015, after the first few games everyone was screaming for Cousins to be benched.  The offense wasnt clicking and Kirk seemed lost.  It took about 5 weeks before he got comfortable and started really lighting it up.  Im hoping thats where Alex is.  I still think he is smarter with the ball and makes good decisions.  If we get the O-line playing better I think Alex will play much better each week and we will see more completions to WRs.  No need to panic, were in first place.  

1) Alex is 34. Kirk was 27. Huge difference. This is how he’s been for 14 years.

 

2) We’re not in 1st place.

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53 minutes ago, NeverSurrender said:

 we will see more completions to WRs. 

 

Do you people not have cable?

 

Honest to God, do you think Smith is a rookie?

7 minutes ago, JoggingGod said:

 

 

2) We’re not in 1st place.

 

He said "were"

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9 minutes ago, JoggingGod said:

1) Alex is 34. Kirk was 27. Huge difference. This is how he’s been for 14 years.

 

2) We’re not in 1st place.

Your signature says it all brother.

 

1.) a 34 year old cant get more comfortable in a new offense?  Honest question. Have you ever played sports?

 

2.) Yeah only because the Eagles won last night.  But we are still 2-2 and if you wan the Nightmare to end just dont watch.

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2 minutes ago, NeverSurrender said:

Your signature says it all brother.

 

1.) a 34 year old cant get more comfortable in a new offense?  Honest question. Have you ever played sports?

 

2.) Yeah only because the Eagles won last night.  But we are still 2-2 and if you wan the Nightmare to end just dont watch.

No he can’t. He’s been the same QB in his entire career. He will not change, especially not with Gruden.

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On 10/10/2018 at 11:30 AM, TD_washingtonredskins said:

 

Can we slow down?

 

Through 4 games, Smith has a QB rating of over 92. He's no where close to "being benched soon" by Jay Gruden. To further refute your comparison, McNabb had more interceptions than TDs and had a QB rating in the 70s. He was clearly outplayed by Grossman who still registered a QB rating more than 10 points lower than what Smith is putting up. 

 

Smith played an awful game on Monday night...but we need a lot more time before we can compare this trade to the McNabb trade. 

 

Edit: I am bad at math...updated the comparison numbers between Rex and Alex. 

Gruden himself said that he was considering benching Smith for Mccoy with 6min left in the game. look it up.

Through 4 weeks Smith has had 2 OK games, 1 bad game and one AWFUL game where he looked like a 1st year rookie against a D that was lit up by every other team and was missing its best corner.

If Gruden already considered benching Smith in week 5, how long do you think he will wait if Smith has another awful game?.. considering Grudens job is very much on the line this year.

And NO... you dont need a lot more time to say this was a bad get.. since FO mentioned several times that bringing in Smith was not a rebuilding project and that a veteran QB is expected to play well right away.

Edited by oraphus

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4 minutes ago, JoggingGod said:

No he can’t. He’s been the same QB in his entire career. He will not change, especially not with Gruden.

This is actually laughably wrong, and you've now lost all credibility. If you think Smith has been the same QB his entire career, well then let's just say you don't remember Smith's first few years in the league.

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1 minute ago, HardcoreZorn said:

This is actually laughably wrong, and you've now lost all credibility. If you think Smith has been the same QB his entire career, well then let's just say you don't remember Smith's first few years in the league.

He has LITERALLY gotten better with longevity.  This could be a blessing for us.  I hope he plays well. 

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1 minute ago, NeverSurrender said:

He has LITERALLY gotten better with longevity.  This could be a blessing for us.  I hope he plays well. 

he literally has no direction to go but up after last game

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