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Lets keep laughing at the Browns, while we can


zoony

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On 1/12/2018 at 8:05 AM, BatteredFanSyndrome said:

I love how all the armchair GM's run with the narrative that the Browns are so depleted that they need several years before they can even think about competing, completely dismissing the fact that they trot out some the absolute worst QB play year over year.

 

IF the Browns find a legit QB through FA, they can win games.  If they hit on their draft picks, they can win some more games.  Are they going to win the Super Bowl next season? No.  But they can instantly start righting the ship with a competent QB and a good draft.  They have the money to buy a QB and the draft picks and personnel dept. capable of having a good draft.

 

 

gosh, one would almost think retaining a quality QB would be an imperative.

I'm glad there's not mountains of evidence supporting such a silly notion.

 

McCoy in 2018!

 

~****

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Cleveland brass is playing a very cool experiment. Will take years to find out if it works. But if it does it will change NFL drafting.  Podesta must have some new data/metrics to go "all in" on a strategy like this. In previous years, he admitted that the team nature of the sport and the lack of good data made predicting wins and losses very difficult in the NFL (as opposed to baseball where the matchup is pitcher vs. hitter).

 

Maybe they take each position and work on matchup metrics to exceed performance in key positions and see if that totals up to more wins. Very very curious. I'm a data junkie and get very excited about the "how". 

 

Will be tracking the Brown's progress (or lack thereof) very closely to see if this type of data-driven strategy can be effective in a team sport with evenly matched teams where one or two plays make a big difference

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On 1/4/2018 at 4:31 PM, Taylorcooley1 said:

Bllaahh ...good lord...oh. wait that's the stench of a pile of poo poo that wasn't cleaned up..for a sec I thot it was this thread...when will it end..I'll give you any coaching staff ya want ..and any qb ya want..on top of that I'll give ya three picks in the first round....two of them in the bottom 8...two in the second and four in the third and guess what...WE STILL WONT WIN..ugghh until owner ship changes ..

Wow.  Your optimism is infectious brother.  Excuse me a sec while I go swallow this .45

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On 1/4/2018 at 6:41 PM, zoony said:

 

Yup.  I wish I was a Browns fan right now.  Actually, I might adopt them as my second team.  I am seriously in love with what they are doing right now...

 

Z,  you know I luv ya...but God help you if you aren't kidding right now.  C'mon man.  It's the BROWNS.  Tell me it ain't so...

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Incredibly frustrating to watch what the Browns are about to do. Like Zoony, I have been dreaming of Dan figuring this out since the Jim Zorn debacle.

 

Top notch front office that values lots of draft picks and maximizes values on rookie contract players. A few key FAs here and there. 

 

Now, football, unlike MLB in '18, does require outstanding coaching, and analytics still has not figured out how to factor coaching schemes into the analysis. The first team that can figure that out will be a powerhouse for years. Or maybe the Pats figured it out a while back and got very lucky that Brady fell in their lap 

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Analytics are harder in football because of the significantly smaller sample size. Only 16 games compared to 162 in baseball. But I do believe they have value and I like that the Browns are taking a shot at it. If not, what' the worse that can happen, they'll just suck again? You can't do worse than 0-16.

 

The Redskins simply refuse to bottom out and rebuild. The other three teams in DC all did and 2/3 built contender(and the 3rd, the Wiz are a good solid team, probably one more big piece away from contending but realistically in NBA only 2-3 teams are real contenders anyway).

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10 hours ago, Warhead36 said:

Analytics are harder in football because of the significantly smaller sample size. Only 16 games compared to 162 in baseball. But I do believe they have value and I like that the Browns are taking a shot at it. If not, what' the worse that can happen, they'll just suck again? You can't do worse than 0-16.

 

The Redskins simply refuse to bottom out and rebuild. The other three teams in DC all did and 2/3 built contender(and the 3rd, the Wiz are a good solid team, probably one more big piece away from contending but realistically in NBA only 2-3 teams are real contenders anyway).

 

Oh, they've bottomed out alright. Four times in the last nine years, they've finished with 5 wins or less (09, 11, 13, 14). In '10 they went 6-10. They brought in a personnel guru, then publicly embarrassed him before firing him. Jimmy Haslam might be the worst owner in sports, now that Loria sold the Marlins. It looks like he's passing Snyder and Bucky Larson soon...

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11 hours ago, Warhead36 said:

Analytics are harder in football because of the significantly smaller sample size. Only 16 games compared to 162 in baseball. But I do believe they have value and I like that the Browns are taking a shot at it. If not, what' the worse that can happen, they'll just suck again? You can't do worse than 0-16.

 

The Redskins simply refuse to bottom out and rebuild. The other three teams in DC all did and 2/3 built contender(and the 3rd, the Wiz are a good solid team, probably one more big piece away from contending but realistically in NBA only 2-3 teams are real contenders anyway).

 

It feels like the number one indicator of nfl success is passion and hard work on the part of the player.  Thats ridiculously difficult to quantify.  But if you look at a qb like drew brees or kirk cousins, they came into the league and struggled early, but were so ridiculously passionate and had such a crazy work ethic, they overcame.  Jerry rice, michael irvin, tom brady... notoriously ridiculous work habits.

 

And i think it goes beyond hard work... you have to have the mentality to practice what you suck at.  Majority of athletes try to hide what they suck at by getting better what they are good at.  Truly addressing where you suck and practicing to get better is a very rare trait in the general population.  Lets face it, the largest majority of nfl draft picks are just winners of the genetic lottery... not necessarily passionate football players.

 

Anywho, beyond that, i think that there are a ton of analytics in football that can be meaningful.  Its just that none are as meaningful as the above.

 

So when i hear about the redskins drafting players they havent even interviewed, i cringe.

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12 hours ago, SkinsHokieFan said:

Incredibly frustrating to watch what the Browns are about to do. Like Zoony, I have been dreaming of Dan figuring this out since the Jim Zorn debacle.

 

Top notch front office that values lots of draft picks and maximizes values on rookie contract players. A few key FAs here and there. 

 

Now, football, unlike MLB in '18, does require outstanding coaching, and analytics still has not figured out how to factor coaching schemes into the analysis. The first team that can figure that out will be a powerhouse for years. Or maybe the Pats figured it out a while back and got very lucky that Brady fell in their lap 

 

Bellicheck is the most over rated human being in the history of humanity.  Dude inherits a qb in the 6th round who turns into the best ever and consistently signs contracts under market value to help the team win.  And he locks up the qb spot for 20 years of peak performance to allow money and draft picks to be spent on the entire rest of the team.  Yah, thats a realistic strategy to build  (eye roll)

 

I just hope the guys ego is big enough to where he will continue coaching after brady retires.  Will be fun to see him get beat like a little ****.

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15 minutes ago, zoony said:

 

It feels like the number one indicator of nfl success is passion and hard work on the part of the player.  Thats ridiculously difficult to quantify.  But if you look at a qb like drew brees or kirk cousins, they came into the league and struggled early, but were so ridiculously passionate and had such a crazy work ethic, they overcame.  Jerry rice, michael irvin, tom brady... notoriously ridiculous work habits.

 

And i think it goes beyond hard work... you have to have the mentality to practice what you suck at.  Majority of athletes try to hide what they suck at by getting better what they are good at.

 

Anywho, beyond that, i think that there are a ton of analytics in football that can be meaningful.  Its just that none are as meaningful as the above.

 

So when i hear about the redskins drafting players they havent even interviewed, i cringe.

That's an interesting take. I always thought that the most important thing to know about drafting a guy his is personnality.

Skills and athletics should be second in me. They're easy to see and find out, and that's why there is coaching for. Obviously you're not gonna turn Bennie Logan into Usain Bolt, but that's why you need a good coaching tree.

 

Still, I believe most scouting department spent too much time looking at athletics, skills, watching tapes and stuff while you should be spending time talking with teachers/coaches/friends to know more about the guy.

The question to answer first and foremost to me is:

Does the guy have what it takes to make it to the NFL? If the answer is Yes, then you can add him to your drafting list. At the very least, you'll get a Will Compton type of guy. And if that connects with skills and athletics, then you'll probably have a multiple Pro Bowler.

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3 minutes ago, Wildbunny said:

That's an interesting take. I always thought that the most important thing to know about drafting a guy his is personnality.

 

There have been studies done on Nobel prize winners.  Average iq of winners is something like 128, iirc.  That is nowhere close to genius.

 

The point is, you do not need to be a genius to win a nobel prize.  You just have to be smart ENOUGH.  What counts is passion and work ethic, above all.

 

I think the nfl is exactly the same.  Sure, you must have the measurables to compete.  But beyond that, passion wins out.  Its why a guy like Albert Haynesworth is a complete lump of **** and a guy like Loannidis works his way into a starting role.

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3 hours ago, zoony said:

 

There have been studies done on Nobel prize winners.  Average iq of winners is something like 128, iirc.  That is nowhere close to genius.

 

The point is, you do not need to be a genius to win a nobel prize.  You just have to be smart ENOUGH.  What counts is passion and work ethic, above all.

 

I think the nfl is exactly the same.  Sure, you must have the measurables to compete.  But beyond that, passion wins out.  Its why a guy like Albert Haynesworth is a complete lump of **** and a guy like Loannidis works his way into a starting role.

 

An old colleague of mine was a D-1 pitcher. He certainly looked the part. 6-5, 230 lbs. His fastball could top out in the high 90s. His career though is a strategy analyst at a software company as opposed to an MLB pitcher

 

He said the biggest difference between him, and say a Clayton Kershaw wasn't the physical attributes but what was between the ears. There is simply another level elite athletes can hit in terms of work ethic, passion and attention to detail that average people simply do not understand nor are capable of hitting. 

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5 hours ago, zoony said:

 

And i think it goes beyond hard work... you have to have the mentality to practice what you suck at.  Majority of athletes try to hide what they suck at by getting better what they are good at.  Truly addressing where you suck and practicing to get better is a very rare trait in the general population.  Lets face it, the largest majority of nfl draft picks are just winners of the genetic lottery... not necessarily passionate football players.


Good observation. What anyone who sincerely tries to master mastery. or gain holistic mastery figures out in the pursuit of that process, is that "in order to master being a master, you have to master being a beginner".

 

You have to through the beginner stress over and over again of not knowing what you're doing, going through the awkward phase of building conscious competence, before it internalizes into unconscious competence and syncs up/interconnects with your automated capabilities (so it feels like second nature, which is in some part the process you hear 2nd and 3rd year players talk about, where they don't have that hesitation of having to figure out what they're doing, but instead work off of recognition and instinct). It's hard enough to reach unconscious competence with the things you already have a "gift" for, but way more harder to pick and choose and succeed with that process for things that don't come easy to a person. 

There is an emotional curve that runs parallel to the learning curve, when it comes to picking up new skills and a lot of people haven't developed the ability or motivation to handle that stress and pain and awkwardness, over and over again.

 

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Football, to me, requires the most passion to play, especially in the trenches and the LBs, because it's so physical.  You really have to desire, not want, but desire to get smacked on any given play.  Plus you run around in all the equipment, often in a lot of heat, knowing your life expectancy can be significantly shortened.  That requires heart.  Without heart, all the talent in the world won't matter.  Of course, you have to have the ability to be able to harness that heart, but if your max effort is greater than some stud who has no heart, esp late in the game, you'll prevail.  What do the late-bloomers/late-finds/etc. have in common?  Some deficiency in measurables that led to them getting passed over.  Assuming they can play the game, they make it on heart.  Gary Clark -- five foot 9, ran a 4.6.  Biggest heart on the field probably.  Even Riggo, as good as he was (and he really was a skilled runner, being a champion college sprinter) did the Riggo drill on heart, not 4.5 speed.

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For QBs to me its not about raw intellect but the ability to process information quickly while under duress and then make the best possible decision. Its a very unique skill set. "Smart" is way too broad and can mean a lot of things. Patrick Ramsey was smart but when facing a wicked pass rush, his brain went to crap. Meanwhile Dan Marino stunk up the wonderlic but he just had that ability in his head to not wilt under pressure and make accurate throws and good decisions.

 

I think the characteristics of a good soldier in combat are the best comparison. Now I am NOT comparing playing QB to being in war, but I think the same traits that make a successful soldier/field commander make a successful QB.

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2 hours ago, Warhead36 said:

QBs to me its not about raw intellect but the ability to process information quickly while under duress and then make the best possible decision. Its a very unique skill se

 

True, But i think the evidence shows thats something one can practice and get better at.  I remember reading an article about drew brees and his offseason routine... he would practice complicated problems and riddles while juggling.  Just to hone those exact skills.

 

Heres something ive often thought of... the first nfl team hat can come up with a VR simulation for QBs is going to win several superbowls.  Think about it, your qb can throw on goggles and take reps 24-7.  They could fit 20 years of game simulation into one offseason.

 

Actually, that would probably be the end of football.  There is no defense for the perfect qb, weve seen that with brady who is about to win his 6th lombardi.

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12 hours ago, zoony said:

 

Bellicheck is the most over rated human being in the history of humanity.  Dude inherits a qb in the 6th round who turns into the best ever and consistently signs contracts under market value to help the team win.  And he locks up the qb spot for 20 years of peak performance to allow money and draft picks to be spent on the entire rest of the team.  Yah, thats a realistic strategy to build  (eye roll)

 

I just hope the guys ego is big enough to where he will continue coaching after brady retires.  Will be fun to see him get beat like a little ****.

I agree,  but it will never happen.  He is a warlock;  dude will retire soon after Tom Terrific knowing it's the only chance he has to keep his legacy (such at is it,  what with spygate,  the zamboni,  tuck rule,  and deflategate et al) intact.  He is an above average coach who washed out big time in his first two tries then fell into a pile  of roses with the Pats,  and all of a sudden he's the greatest who ever walked the sidelines?  Puhleeze...gimme a Joe G any day,  and twice on Sunday.  Pun very much intended.

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10 hours ago, BigRedskinDaddy said:

I agree,  but it will never happen.  He is a warlock;  dude will retire soon after Tom Terrific knowing it's the only chance he has to keep his legacy (such at is it,  what with spygate,  the zamboni,  tuck rule,  and deflategate et al) intact.  He is an above average coach who washed out big time in his first two tries then fell into a pile  of roses with the Pats,  and all of a sudden he's the greatest who ever walked the sidelines?  Puhleeze...gimme a Joe G any day,  and twice on Sunday.  Pun very much intended.

I don't want to turn this into a Belichick thread, but I can't help but point out how factually incorrect this post is.

 

Washed out big time his first two tries?  First, he's only been a HC twice, unless you are counting the less than 24 hours he was the Jets HC???  His five years in Cleveland, after taking over a 3-13 team, were 6-10, 7-9, 7-9, 11-5, 5-11.  That was with the ****ty ass Browns, and that last year was totally due to Modell announcing at the beginning of the season that he was moving the team to Baltimore at the conclusion of it.  I'm sorry, but taking a 3-13 team and getting them 11 wins a few years later is not washing out big time, especially when you consider the team.  The Browns also won their last playoff game to date under Belichick.  

 

Spygate and Deflategate have been argued to death on this board, so I'm not going to get into how ridiculous both of those are again, but I see you're now trying to throw the Zamboni game on him, which happened in 1982 when he was the linebackers coach for the Giants?  Also, I guess he fiendishly convinced the NFL's Rules Committee to make the Tuck Rule back in 1972, three years before his first job in the NFL???

 

Here's an interesting fact for you: the great, HOFer Bill Parcells' playoff record with Belichick on his staff: 10-4, with 2 SB wins and 1 SB loss.  Without Belichick, 1-4, 0 SB appearances.  Belichick's record without Parcells: 28-10, 5-2 in SB.  Parcells coached 19 playoff games in his HC career with a .579 winning rate, Belichick 46, with 47 to take place this weekend, with a .730 winning rate (for comparison, Joe Gibbs has a .708 winning rate).

 

I understand there are a lot of folks that hate Belichick, Brady, and the Pats in general.  That happens with any type of success.  However, let's at least keep the hate and ****ing somewhat factual.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_National_Football_League_head_coaches_by_playoff_record

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/cle/index.htm

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bill_Belichick#Head_coaching_record

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16 hours ago, Warhead36 said:

For QBs to me its not about raw intellect but the ability to process information quickly while under duress and then make the best possible decision. Its a very unique skill set. "Smart" is way too broad and can mean a lot of things. Patrick Ramsey was smart but when facing a wicked pass rush, his brain went to crap. Meanwhile Dan Marino stunk up the wonderlic but he just had that ability in his head to not wilt under pressure and make accurate throws and good decisions.

 

I think the characteristics of a good soldier in combat are the best comparison. Now I am NOT comparing playing QB to being in war, but I think the same traits that make a successful soldier/field commander make a successful QB.


In my experience what that is, is called tensile resiliency and you're right it's a separate component from "intelligence" and is responsible for how we handle times of stress from combat to competition to attraction even (although each arena requires it's own unique tensile adaptations). The higher or more intense the tension, the more likely it is to kind of short-circuit your brain and it takes working with higher and higher levels of tension to adapt and increase one's capacity, so that they can think with coherency, maintain higher ordinal thought, and not slip into states of fight/flight or freeze.   


 

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On 1/19/2018 at 7:34 AM, Taylor 36 said:

Well,  color me chastened.  The man is still a cheat.  Nothing you or anyone else says will change that.  My facts were off (gotta stop posting after a few brewskis) but he can and often does skirt the line between seizing an advantage and outright thievery.  I don't want this to devolve into a hate Belichick thread either but I can't help but be saddened that the man's formidable,  albeit tarnished,  resume,  will put him in the Hall next to others who did it without all the theatrics.  I've no doubt you will refute this will considerable metrics if you choose.  Ask yourself this,  though:  do you honestly think he could have done what he did without cheating?  I myself do.  I know I'm flip-flopping here,  but hey,  it's my reply.  That is the saddest thing about his legacy,  IMHO.  Hoodie didn't need to cheat.  He did it anyway.

 

https://www.si.com/nfl/2015/09/08/patriots-cheating-suspicions-bill-belichick-tom-brady

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On 1/17/2018 at 10:31 PM, SkinsHokieFan said:

 

 

Top notch front office that values lots of draft picks and maximizes values on rookie contract players. A few key FAs here and there. 

This is literally the exact thing we were saying about our team when Scot came aboard. 

 

Then something happened with Scot.  Whatever.  

 

Point Is, the statement above makes it sound like its so easy.  OF COURSE teams want lots of draft picks, good rookies and good free agents.  Even the evil Dan Snyder and Allen understand this.  It's just really really hard to make all those things happen at once.  And here we are in a thread assuming that the ****ing browns are the team to finally break the mold and succeed.

 

Great QB play and a decent defense is what succeeds.  And if your QB isn't Tom Brady, then do your best to make your defense awesome (jags). 

 

The browns have the same philosophy as everyone else.  Their extra draft picks will help their odds, but that's it.  It's more about coaching, scheming, adjusting, and the players themselves.  So enough about this so called super front office the browns have.  Even dumbass Bruce allen can wind up looking like a winner if we have good qb play and a good defense....actually.. both those things were happening at the beginning of the season, remember?

 

Stay the course. **** this "lose like the browns do" nonsense, because that's all it sounds like to me.  Unless were saying "hire the best front office guys", as if there's perfect office guys just waiting out there to get hired.

 

Disclaimer I'm watching UFC and drinking.  HTTR ?

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Football analytics are garbage because 95% of the play is away from the ball.  The only way to actually judge play is to chart plays and assign grades for each player on each play.  PFF does it (poorly).  Front offices and coaching staffs have been doing this forever, and the ones that do it well do it well because (unlike with PFF) their evaluators are good and experienced and can produce a worthy gestalt.  There is no reinventing the wheel to get around this.  The only innovation to be had is to figure out how to make the process less subjective and less of a slog.  The only way the Browns will get good is if they create a positive organizational culture and find systems that work well and then start drafting well to fill that system with talent.

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