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The Bruce Allen/GM Thread


Makaveli

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14 minutes ago, Veryoldschool said:

Dan and Bruce are going to have to sell a helluva lot of stale peanuts to get on top again, some winning on the field in addition to his continuous off the field winning would help. 

Two words for ya..Dwayne Haskins will be a winner!

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59 minutes ago, TD_washingtonredskins said:

 

I don't see how this organization gets on top of that list again. I also don't really know that it matters. If they truly are valued around 3.1 or 3.2B, it means that the value has quadrupled since Snyder bought the team. Owning a NFL franchise is like printing money. 

 

 

 

Up to now that is the case but I wonder how big the NFL will be 20 years from now, I think it has already peaked.

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On 9/5/2019 at 12:42 PM, wit33 said:

With that said, it seems very clear that a players contract situation is paramount when assigning value. 

 

The Texans traded for Tunsil, who has two years left on a rookie deal that pays him 12.5 million over next two seasons (extreme value—the Dolphins front loaded his deal considerably). Trents contract as is pays him 23mil in base salary (as we know, with Keenum situation, the Skins could elect to split bonus money increasing the contract more). I think it’s agreed by most that Trent would require a new deal competitive with top paid LTs. 

 

Money and teams current cap situation plays a significant role, almost of equal value of the player themselves. 

Not really. Roughly 10 mil over two years is peanuts when looking at a Pro Bowl LT. And the Texans have tons of cap room. If it was an issue at all, the Redskins could have done what Houston did in the Clowney deal and eat some of Trent's money. As for him "requiring a new deal", he is signed for as long as Tunsil is, there is no reason a new deal would be more of an issue with Williams (likely less, as his age would surely mean a smaller bonus).

 

The cap issue and the supposed value of throw-in Stills are completely overrated in these discussions. The difference in respective trade value mainly comes down to Trent's age and health issues vs Tunsil's questionable rep and inferior talent. 

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19 hours ago, TD_washingtonredskins said:

 

If Jones owns the stadium, is it funneling? 

Definitely not, it was probably a bad term to use because "funneling" has a negative connotation when it comes to money but if its income from stadium proceeds not related to the Cowboys it makes the team look much more profitable than they actually are.

 

It skews the numbers if you looking for an apples to apples, but maybe this is common practice throughout the league.

 

 

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The Redskins aren't valued at 3B+ based on ticket sales because attendance is way down.  I don't think merchandise sales are driving things either so it has got to be Snyder's masterful branding rights salesmanship that are supporting the 3B+ valuation.  Snyder is pitching hard the power of being the official this and that of the Washington Redskins.  I don't know how much a manufacturer will pay to become the official urinal cake of the Washington Redskins but Snyder will pocket the cash.

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14 minutes ago, Veryoldschool said:

The Redskins aren't valued at 3B+ based on ticket sales because attendance is way down.  I don't think merchandise sales are driving things either so it has got to be Snyder's masterful branding rights salesmanship that are supporting the 3B+ valuation.  Snyder is pitching hard the power of being the official this and that of the Washington Redskins.  I don't know how much a manufacturer will pay to become the official urinal cake of the Washington Redskins but Snyder will pocket the cash.

 

I've read a few stories over the years about how sports franchise valuations aren't necessarily tied to anything rational. The operating profits don't come anywhere close to justifying the sale prices--teams are essentially a rich man's toy, and valuation comes down to how much interest a given franchise would generate in a sale. Few of owners actually need to see a profit--it's all about image and ego.

 

"Prestige" teams generate prestige for the owner, hence the valuation, hence why the Redskins are falling down the ladder and why the Patriots are always near the top.

 

Heck, the valuation of the Chargers has gone *up* after the L.A. move, despite them playing in a half-full soccer stadium and ultimately being a tenant in someone else's stadium. A rational valuation wouldn't allow that.

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Just now, profusion said:

 

I've read a few stories over the years about how sports franchise valuations aren't necessarily tied to anything rational. The operating profits don't come anywhere close to justifying the sale prices--teams are essentially a rich man's toy, and valuation comes down to how much interest a given franchise would generate in a sale. Few of owners actually need to see a profit--it's all about image and ego.

 

"Prestige" teams generate prestige for the owner, hence the valuation, hence why the Redskins are falling down the ladder and why the Patriots are always near the top.

 

Heck, the valuation of the Chargers has gone *up* after the L.A. move, despite them playing in a half-full soccer stadium and ultimately being a tenant in someone else's stadium. A rational valuation wouldn't allow that.

Yeah, thats the difficulty of valuing anything that almost never trades.  A value is supposed to be an estimate of what someone would pay for something, all things being equal.  The problem arises valuing anything rare, because there are very few known buyers and sellers, and examples from which to judge a value from.  When it comes to super rare single commodities, items, franchises, the actual sale price can vary wildly because it may be A. Seller has to sell and no one wants to buy, so price plummets, B. Buyer has to have one, and only one is available and will pay anything, C. Somewhere inbetween.  Its like that one of a kind Ming vase, if only one exists there may be that guy who has dreamed since he was a kid of having something like it....or not.  With a sports franchise, there can always be that super fan that is super rich and will pay WAY above the "value" for his once in a lifetime shot of owning the only team in his state.  Or not.  

 

Putting a value on that is almost impossible, so they mostly try to guess with a formula of profits+brand+league growth+assets+Miscellaneouswhateverwemakeup.

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31 minutes ago, Peregrine said:

Putting a value on that is almost impossible, so they mostly try to guess with a formula of profits+brand+league growth+assets+Miscellaneouswhateverwemakeup.

 

Good points all around. In a sense, a proper sports franchise valuation, first and foremost, has to measure how many people are able and interested to buy into a league at all.

 

I'm one of those who think the NFL may have already peaked in value. In a league with an almost exclusively American fanbase, there wasn't really any further possible domestic growth. Arrogance and mismanagement have slowly alienated a lot of existing fans. Too much hype, too many gamedays, everything too expensive. Heck, I didn't bother watching last night's game, and that's the first season opener in awhile I could say that about. I used to get really excited about it.

 

Also, the reputation of NFL owners has gone down, fairly or otherwise. Maybe it's in the nature of billionaires to want to be in a club that features Jerry Jones, Dan Snyder, Stan Kroenke and Jimmy Haslem, but I wonder...

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4 hours ago, profusion said:

 

Good points all around. In a sense, a proper sports franchise valuation, first and foremost, has to measure how many people are able and interested to buy into a league at all.

 

I'm one of those who think the NFL may have already peaked in value. In a league with an almost exclusively American fanbase, there wasn't really any further possible domestic growth. Arrogance and mismanagement have slowly alienated a lot of existing fans. Too much hype, too many gamedays, everything too expensive. Heck, I didn't bother watching last night's game, and that's the first season opener in awhile I could say that about. I used to get really excited about it.

 

Also, the reputation of NFL owners has gone down, fairly or otherwise. Maybe it's in the nature of billionaires to want to be in a club that features Jerry Jones, Dan Snyder, Stan Kroenke and Jimmy Haslem, but I wonder...

 

I think the NFL has peaked also for the reasons you cited and others including; the health issues we learned about recently, the attention span and changing tastes of younger people, and the changing demographics in the country.  It's not going to fall off immediately but the attendance issues the past season are not a blip in my opinion.  College football is also on the decline.

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Long article in the Athletic about the FO, pretty balanced I think.  I gather Bruce likes Standig since he's given him an exclusive interview before.

 

It makes some points that I've made so naturally I agree. 😀  Among them:

 

A.  They've earned their bad rap for behavior and it hasn't disappeared.

 

B.  They do draft better now and Kyle and Jay are all over that.  Bruce for the most part isn't involved with it.  I've heard multiple times Bruce's involvement is pro personnel and specifically trades and decisions as to who bring back.

 

C.  This isn't a full rebuild as some claim.  We got some young pieces indeed but on the aggregate it's not a young roster.  Some signings inflate the age but even taking that away I am sticking with this is a team that is going about half and half on that front but with a leaning towards rebuilding.  My point is I'd like to see a more aggressive rebuild.   

 

D.  Even though they are clearly drafting better they don't yet don't hit on the superstars.  no home runs.  Personally I think that can change with Guice.  But I do think part of this team's attendance struggles (beyond not winning enough) has centered on there are no super stars that draw the more casual fan. 

 

E.  They went into interesting territory about so many players leaving off of their first contract and its a catch 22.  You want some players to stay to build a culture albeit players leaving lets you stay younger and cheaper. So you need to balance those two ideas. 

 

F.  It zig zagged about the media coverage.  In one sense Doug said they can't catch a break from them. in another sense Standig went into how they don't even try unlike other teams to get their spin out there and if they did it would help and part of the cynicism has been earned.

 

There is a lot more than this but here's just some segments.

Screen Shot 2019-09-06 at 4.40.01 PM.png

Screen Shot 2019-09-06 at 4.43.15 PM.png

 

 

Screen Shot 2019-09-06 at 7.31.42 PM.png

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All it would take to change the perception is a couple playoff seasons in a row. I think there's a large latent support out there for the Redskins, but it won't come out until there's something worth cheering. This isn't Cleveland or Buffalo, where a blue-collar fanbase just wants football.

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13 minutes ago, profusion said:

All it would take to change the perception is a couple playoff seasons in a row. I think there's a large latent support out there for the Redskins, but it won't come out until there's something worth cheering. This isn't Cleveland or Buffalo, where a blue-collar fanbase just wants football.

 

Agree, 2 playoff seasons in a row would feel like a miracle in the Dan era.  If Haskins is the goods I think it's doable.  Will see. 

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5 minutes ago, desertbeagle85 said:

 

It's not a excuse it's a fact. The Skins coaching sucks

 

My point is the front office won't take any responsibility for another year of mediocre results. It's never their fault.

 

Gruden has had plenty of time. Do we really need to see more to know that he's an average coach at best?

 

They tried to replace Manusky. I've lost count of how many Defensive Coordinators there have been during the Gruden Era.

 

The problems with the organization are bigger than coaching. It starts at the top.

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1 minute ago, Makaveli said:

 

My point is the front office won't take any responsibility for another year of mediocre results. It's never their fault.

 

Gruden has had plenty of time. Do we really need to see more to know that he's an average coach at best?

 

They tried to replace Manusky. I've lost count of how many Defensive Coordinators there have been during the Gruden Era.

 

The problems with the organization are bigger than coaching. It starts at the top.

 

God yeah I agree 100%. I mean Snyder hired these bums and has kept them around. So I totally agree with everything you said. 

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21 minutes ago, Makaveli said:

So what will be the excuse this year when the team has another underwhelming season and fails to make the playoffs? Injuries?

No, at this point it's "wait on Haskins". Even Bruce realized he was out of "we could have made it but for injuries" seasons, had to give himself another out, and a 1st round QB was the perfect thing to sell.

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5 minutes ago, Rufus T Firefly said:

No, at this point it's "wait on Haskins". Even Bruce realized he was out of "we could have made it but for injuries" seasons, had to give himself another out, and a 1st round QB was the perfect thing to sell.

 

I could definitely see the "the roster is young and learning" angle being played. In regard to Haskins, if Gruden gets fired at the end of the year they've put themselves in a position where they'll have to hire someone who is sold on Haskins or at least says they are. Remember that Gruden was brought here to "fix" Griffin.

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