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2018 Comprehensive NFL Draft Thread


stevemcqueen1

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I'm for resigning Cousins too.  The only guys in this class that I think might end up being upgrades over him are Mayfield and Darnold, and Darnold needs work.  But in the meantime, chasing after that potential upgrade at QB means you enter a rebuild and waste what's left of the good years that guys like Trent, Kerrigan, and Norman have.

 

Another way of looking at it is in terms of grades:

 

Kirk = B+ QB

Darnold/Mayfield = potential A QBs who might end up being Fs

Perine = C-/D+ RB

Lauvao = D LG

Barkley = A+ RB

Nelson = A+ LG

Kirk working off play-action set up by a dominant running game = A QB

 

It is not worth it to chase the upgrade of going from B+ to A at QB when you have a much better chance of going from a D to an A at LG or HB and improving, not only the offense as a whole, but the QB play as well.

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On 12/8/2017 at 9:48 AM, Skinsinparadise said:

RB RASHAAD PENNY, SAN DIEGO STATE – 86.6 OVERALL GRADE

Penny plays in a RB-friendly system at San Diego State and has produced at an elite level with little national fanfare. Penny has forced 74 missed tackles – which leads all draft-eligible running backs – on his 277 rushing attempts. His elusive rating of 109.7 ranks No. 2 among draft-eligible running backs behind only Stanford’s Bryce Love. Penny also has breakaway speed in addition to his “make-you-miss” moves and his 31 runs of 15 yards or more ties him for first in the draft class with Love. Penny’s game-breaking speed is also evident by his punt return touchdown and two kickoff return touchdowns this season. — @PFF_Jordan

I mentioned Penny about 2 months ago.  I live in San Diego, so I hear about his games.  SDSU does have a very big and strong oline.  I am not sure if they are so good that any RB would succeed.  Penny does have several really long runs and he has been good 2 straight seasons.

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On 12/6/2017 at 12:05 PM, Skinsinparadise said:

Cooley doing a rare early foray into the draft in a segment today.  His take:

 

If Kirk goes its a disaster

He's not on board with dumping Kirk for a new QB in the draft.  But he likes Josh Allen a lot. 

He thinks the problem with the running game is primarily the running back and blocking TEs

He'd let Lauvao go.  Make Rouiller the center and sign Long to play LG and he thinks the O line will be good

He thinks they desperately need a 3 down TE.  And he has a mega man crush on Wisconsin TE Troy Fumagalli -- thinks he's the solution

He thinks mega need for a #1 receiver

He seems to be ok with the defense (especially the secondary) if it gets healthy but wants to switch to a 4-3

 

 

1)  Yup, we save loads of cap room, buuuut...

3)  There are several plays a game where you see the TE's (more when Reed is in) just whiff on a defender who then hits the RB early.

4)  Wouldn't be a bad idea.  Kouandjio should go as well.  Still need to draft a backup G/C like Rouiller for depth.

5) So I watched some of Fumagalli.  You can see why Cooley likes him, he puts in a lot of effort even if it looks awkward into every block.  The desire to help the run game out by blocking is there.  He's usually more of a finesse blocker, but will, if he has an opportunity, try and drive a defender off a spot.  He's not overly athletic, or fast, or big.  His routes need some work.  But he seems like a solid player who appears to want to do everything.

 

I'm for drafting Fumagalli.  But what is his draft value?  Without having checked out most of the draft class, I'm going to guess early Day 3, so 4th round.

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29 minutes ago, Alcoholic Zebra said:

 

 

I'm for drafting Fumagalli.  But what is his draft value?  Without having checked out most of the draft class, I'm going to guess early Day 3, so 4th round.

 

I haven't watched Fumagalli aside from one game.  From what I've observed he seems to be a third round guy in some mocks I caught.  I posed Matt Miller's thing about him below, from before the season. 

 

But yeah Cooley seems to have a good eye for prospects and I figure TEs in particular.  He's been hammering for most of two years like a drum that the TE blocking on the team is atrocious.  He thinks the idea that the O line is the issue with the running game is overstated.  He thinks its mostly a combination of terrible TE blocking coupled with running backs who are Jags. 

 

I've watched Mark Andrews plenty but he seems more like another pass catcher than well rounded player -- likely going high in the draft at least judging by some of the early mocks, late first early 2nd.   So maybe a guy like Fumagalli is the better bet.

 

 

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2707035-2018-nfl-draft-big-board-matt-millers-way-too-early-initial-rankings

 

Tight Ends

TE Adam BrenemanSean Rayford/Associated Press

Most NFL-Ready: Troy Fumagalli, Wisconsin

Best Slot Tight End: DeAndre Goolsby, Florida

Best Hands: Adam Breneman, UMass

Best Route-RunnerBreneman

Best Blocker: Fumagalli

Biggest Question Mark: Dalton Schultz, Stanford

Biggest Sleeper: Ben Johnson, Kansas

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13 hours ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

Another way of looking at it is in terms of grades:

 

Kirk = B+ QB

Darnold/Mayfield = potential A QBs who might end up being Fs

Perine = C-/D+ RB

Lauvao = D LG

Barkley = A+ RB

Nelson = A+ LG

Kirk working off play-action set up by a dominant running game = A QB

 

It is not worth it to chase the upgrade of going from B+ to A at QB when you have a much better chance of going from a D to an A at LG or HB and improving, not only the offense as a whole, but the QB play as well.

This is, essentially, the "whom can we upgrade the most" school of drafting.  It's neither BPA nor purely need (going from a C to an A where you have a D you can turn into a C = not purely need).  I disagree with your Perine grade but get the point.  It's hard to argue with drafting guys who immediately upgrade that position in a tangible way, esp. where that position is holding you back.

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Cooley going on this morning, watching the film, the TEs either block poorly or more likely don't bother blocking period because they don't like contact.  I'm surprised about Niles Paul I thought he was supposed to be a tough guy who was a good blocker at least he was as a WR. 

 

He jokes about how the Redskins are allergic to drafting running backs with speed or any wiggle.  They prefer guys that run upright who can't breakaway.   He goes Vernon can't block at all and doesn't want to.

 

This seems to be a good draft to take care of that fix.   My quandary is the first round seems a prime opportunity to also get a fix for the defense stopping the run which is also a big problems guys like:  Vea, R. Jones, D. Payne.  Also guys like Q. Nelson, D. James might drop to our pick.  

 

So I'm not sure running back is the obvious way to go in round 1.  Then round 2 who knows which players drops to BPA.   I am a big BPA guy but I wonder at some point whether you force need a little.  AKA the 2016 draft where we didn't hit the d line until the 5th round because the draft board didn't flow that way -- and it showed during the season.  

 

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I think we have to go after another d lineman in round 1 or 2 without a doubt. Need early WR help as well. As for the defense it's glaringly obvious that our rotation cannot get it done. Without Allen and Ioannidis playing healthy they are a shell of what they were earlier in the season. Add another rookie and those guys healthy and I'm thinking the defense is a different unit in that one move. 

 

As for the receivers color me unimpressed. We have zero depth. Zero. Sure they could add someone nice in FA but I would go for a rookie and pray that its a good pick. Doctson has potential and Crowder can be solid but when Grant is leading them both? Please get some draft help here. I would not be opposed to a new RB either but one of the above would have to be addressed solidly in FA.

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5. Last year’s running backs class has a chance to be remembered for a long, long time: Alvin Kamara, Leonard Fournette, Christian McCaffrey, Joe Mixon, Dalvin Cook, Jamaal Williams, Kareem Hunt . . . on and on. This year’s group might be close to as good. Not quite to the level of 2017, but good enough to start to look at this being a new golden era at the position, particular when you figure Todd Gurley (2015) and Ezekiel Elliott (2016) in. Penn State’s Saquon Barkley is fantastic, but it’s not just him. LSU’s Derrius Guice, Alabama’s Damien Harris and Bo Scarbrough, Georgia’s Nick Chubb and Sony Michel, Stanford’s Bryce Love, Auburn’s Kerryon Johnson, USC’s Ronald Jones, Miami’s Mark Walton and Notre Dame’s Josh Adamsare among those who make this a deep, quality class.

 

8. NFL teams looking for offensive line help in 2018 are going to be much happier with what they find than those who needed them last year. While those guys are still harder to evaluate and develop than they used to be, it wouldn’t be shocking if three offensive linemen—Notre Dame guard Quenton Nelson, Notre Dame tackle Mike McGlinchey and Texas tackle Connor Williams (health permitting)—all went in the first 10-15 picks, and there are others who can play beyond those three.

 

9. SMU’s Courtland Sutton is going to be one of this year’s most interesting prospects, with a good shot to go ahead of more well-known names at wide receiver, like Calvin Ridley (Alabama) and James Washington (Oklahoma State). Sutton is expected to come in at 6' 4" and 230 pounds, and those who live-scouted him came back sounding like they just spotted Big Foot. If he tests well—and it’s expected he will—there’s a chance he lands inside the Top 10 picks as the first receiver taken.

 

https://www.si.com/nfl/2017/12/12/2018-draft-quarterbacks-running-backs-baker-mayfield-bradley-chubb-courtland-sutton

 
 
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While I think a good receiver is the biggest needs on the roster, I wonder if a good TE and dline/oline help might make even more of an impact.  Improve the run game to affect the safeties/linebacker and help PA, improve vs the run to help out the secondary.  

 

Some might put running back in the same category as receiver, but I actually like Perine.  He gets hit (and dropped) in the backfield a lot, but 1) I think that’s more due to TE and oline breakdowns, and 2) he’s starting to show his other abilities - burst, vision and some decent power/balance once he gets going.  He’s taken several (what I thought would be) 3-5 yarders and gotten 8-10 out of them.  Ball security is a concern, but not necessarily a problem yet.  With that said, I would still like to add a well-rounded back in the mid rounds (3rd-5th).  

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3 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Redskins:  13. Derwin James -- safety, FSU.

 

1. Darnold

2. Rosen

3. Chubb

4. Fitzpatrick

5. Allen

6. Barkley

7. Ferrell

8. Ridley

9. Key

10. C. Williams

11.McGlinchey

12. D. Ward

 

There are worse things we could do than draft James but there are some in scouting circles that question his covering skills to play free safety and would be better suited at strong safety. That being said there will always be critics...

 

I definitely consider free safety an area that needs to be addressed. However, I am more focused on stopping the run and we desperately need a true nose tackle. Put me in the draft nose tackle Vita Vea camp and address free safety in the second round where we Justin Reid (Stanford) or DeShon Elliot (Texas) will be available.

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Ideally, I’d go BPA at receiver, guard, dline, running back, TE, OLB or ILB before I’d look at safety.  Oh, and maybe QB (depending on Cousins) and corner.  

 

I guess what I’m saying is that safety might just be the last position I’d draft in the 1st.  Not that we can’t use one, but...

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1 hour ago, skinny21 said:

Ideally, I’d go BPA at receiver, guard, dline, running back, TE, OLB or ILB before I’d look at safety.  Oh, and maybe QB (depending on Cousins) and corner.  

 

I guess what I’m saying is that safety might just be the last position I’d draft in the 1st.  Not that we can’t use one, but...

 

In theory, I agree.  But I wonder about James being a special safety at least potentially.   The team still can't cover TEs.  Maybe Nicholson is the guy but can he stay healthy?

 

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000844755/article/derwin-james-scouts-see-future-nfl-star-in-freakish-fsu-safety

WORKING WITH FREAKISH ATHLETES is nothing new to FSU strength and conditioning coach Vic Viloria. Over the last 13 years, from LaRon Landry to Devonta Freeman to Dalvin Cook, he's seen them come and go. And this is how he sums up James: "It'll be some time before I see another one like this. Maybe never."

 

He's not just talking about James' athleticism -- more on that to follow -- but what the redshirt sophomore can do in a weight room is almost as breathtaking as what he can do on a football field.

 

...A few months later, before James had even played a down for the Seminoles, Viloria posted a video of James leaping clear over a standing man. A close look at the clip shows the prop ducked slightly to avoid contact; an even closer look shows he didn't need to.

 

James is a chiseled 6-foot-3 and 215 pounds, with strength and explosiveness that set him apart even in one of the most talented locker rooms in the country. He can bench press 450 pounds, and he's approached 600 on the squat rack. He's broad jumped 11 feet, 3 inches, which would have ranked him in the top five among more than 300 players at the 2017 NFL Scouting Combine. You want speed? He was clocked at 4.49 seconds in the 40-yard dash at the Nike Opening coming out of high school.

 

"There is no flaw," Viloria said of James' athleticism.

 

The coach grabs two pens off his desk and fires them across his office to illustrate what separates James from others.

"Here are two 4.5s," he says, throwing the first object to represent the more typical athlete. With the second, he hesitates, then flicks the pen with much more force. "Which one was faster? They both crossed the finish at 4.5, but that second (pen)? That's Derwin," Viloria said.

 

His point? Speed is one thing; initial burst and acceleration are something else. And James has the former, plus the latter.

"He's pretty-looking. He's got one of those body types where you could play him at about seven different positions," said an NFC scout. "He looks most like a strong safety, but he's got the frame to put weight on and be a linebacker, he could be a huge corner. He looks kind of like what Patrick Peterson was coming out. Just a great-looking frame."

 

Comparisons like that one -- a frame like Patrick Peterson's -- are common for James. But with the versatility to play everything from safety to linebacker to even cornerback comes a wide array of comps, most of which can't, by themselves, do James justice.

 

Take the Seahawks' Kam Chancellor, the Legion of Boom's enforcer at the strong safety position. He and James are both blessed in the size department, both have reputations as punishing hitters, and both are aggressive in run support. Yet for some, that common comparison falls a bit flat. James is considered the better athlete of the two. Faster, more explosive, more versatile and more agile. Chancellor's place as one of the game's top safeties is secure; he's been named to four Pro Bowls and just signed a contract extension with a $25 million guarantee. But he didn't test especially well as a draft prospect, clocking a 4.60 40-yard dash and a 31.5-inch vertical jump at Virginia Tech's 2010 pro day.

James, however, should test extremely well.

 

Former Haines City coach Jake Chapman coached James and, before that, Pittsburgh Steelers LB Ryan Shazier at Plantation (Fla.) High, which has produced a handful of NFL athletes over the last decade. Shazier blew scouts away at the 2014 NFL Scouting Combine, with a 42-inch vertical leap at 237 pounds, and a 10-10 broad jump. A week later, he clocked a blazing 40 at Ohio State's pro day (between 4.35 and 4.41 seconds, depending on whose stopwatch you're using), yet Chapman doesn't hesitate to put James squarely in Shazier's class as an overall athlete. "No question," he said, "the best two athletes I've coached."

 

Viloria recognizes the difficulty of comparing James with just one player, so he doesn't bother trying. Instead, he assembles a collective cast of the most impressive athletes he's trained in seven years at FSU.

 

"I think if you take all the attributes of all the best ones, combine it into one, you're getting close to Derwin," Viloria said. "He's got strength like (Nigel) Bradham. He's got the desire to chase the deep ball like (Lamarcus) Joyner, competitiveness like Jameis (Winston). His ability to hit and be strong for a skill player is like Jalen (Ramsey). ... His acceleration is freakish; it's that of a Devonta Freeman. ... You can keep going down the list."

 

Of all the praise heaped upon James and his potential as a pro, that might be the highest: that there is no single comparison befitting of what experts see in him. At his essence, he breaks the mold.

 

"He's a separate entity," said Hall of Fame and former FSU cornerback Deion Sanders. "There aren't too many people who do what he does or have what he has."

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In terms of finding a blocking tight end, I have been thinking for years now that what we ought to do is draft in the sixth or seventh round the best Division II tackle in college football. Okay, it doesn't have to be Division II, but the idea goes like this. Y'know how teams love to draft "light" defensive ends to play rush linebacker in the NFL? Kerrigan, Smith, and Murphy, for example, were all defensive ends in college (I think). Well, there's got to be a really good tackle out there that's just too darned small for the NFL. There's a Trent Williams in college ball who weighs 270 or even 250. Why not grab him and make him a blocking tight end?

 

I bet there's someone out there who's athletic and agile and a great blocker, but just doesn't have the frame to be a pro O lineman. Now, it'd be great if he could catch too, but that would be a bonus. The question is whether a guy like that is worth a flier? Personally, I think he might be.

 

Heck, you might even be able to get him without a draft pick and just snag him in udfa.

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25 minutes ago, Burgold said:

Heck, you might even be able to get him without a draft pick and just snag him in udfa.

 

If you're talking about a massive bodyweight/physique change (+/- 20 or 30 pounds), then I think that player would always be a UDFA.

 

Anyways, he has to be able to catch.  Speed, route running, etc is something else.  But if the opposing defense doesn't think he can catch, they'll just treat him as a 6th OL and send out their jumbo package.  At that point, why not just use an actual extra OL?

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35 minutes ago, Alcoholic Zebra said:

 

If you're talking about a massive bodyweight/physique change (+/- 20 or 30 pounds), then I think that player would always be a UDFA.

 

Anyways, he has to be able to catch.  Speed, route running, etc is something else.  But if the opposing defense doesn't think he can catch, they'll just treat him as a 6th OL and send out their jumbo package.  At that point, why not just use an actual extra OL?

Maybe so, but I do think there is an important place for a 21st century Donnie Warren. You're probably right though. Still, there must be some left tackle out there from a smaller school who has the wherewithal to be a great NFL blocker without the size who has untapped hands. Seems like this is a cave worth mining for gems in the ruff.

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4 hours ago, Burgold said:

In terms of finding a blocking tight end, I have been thinking for years now that what we ought to do is draft in the sixth or seventh round the best Division II tackle in college football. Okay, it doesn't have to be Division II, but the idea goes like this. Y'know how teams love to draft "light" defensive ends to play rush linebacker in the NFL? Kerrigan, Smith, and Murphy, for example, were all defensive ends in college (I think). Well, there's got to be a really good tackle out there that's just too darned small for the NFL. There's a Trent Williams in college ball who weighs 270 or even 250. Why not grab him and make him a blocking tight end?

 

I bet there's someone out there who's athletic and agile and a great blocker, but just doesn't have the frame to be a pro O lineman. Now, it'd be great if he could catch too, but that would be a bonus. The question is whether a guy like that is worth a flier? Personally, I think he might be.

 

Heck, you might even be able to get him without a draft pick and just snag him in udfa.

A dominant D2/D3/FCS/NAIA blocking tight end or light tackle doesn't get so much as an NFL blesto scout coming out for measurements. To get a look at the small school level you have to be absolutely dominant and immediately translatable, I.e a dominant tight end or a dominant tackle. Plus, light in the pants offensive linemen at the small school level actually rarely have the kind of athletic ability that will get them NFL looks. 

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My hope is we tank, a top notch QB prospect falls to us, and we pull a reverse RG3 and trade down and plunder some team for all their picks.

 

Oh who am I kidding, we're always the sucker. My prediction is we trade two 1sts for Lamar Jackson. Danny's gotta sell more jerseys!

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11 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

My hope is we tank, a top notch QB prospect falls to us, and we pull a reverse RG3 and trade down and plunder some team for all their picks.

 

Oh who am I kidding, we're always the sucker. My prediction is we trade two 1sts for Lamar Jackson. Danny's gotta sell more jerseys!

 

This guy (or gal) gets it.

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10 hours ago, Warhead36 said:

My hope is we tank, a top notch QB prospect falls to us, and we pull a reverse RG3 and trade down and plunder some team for all their picks.

 

Oh who am I kidding, we're always the sucker. My prediction is we trade two 1sts for Lamar Jackson. Danny's gotta sell more jerseys!


I'm not opposed to this idea...

The biggest issue with this, is why not go for it now? Carson Wentz is a franchise QB, Cousins is borderline (he's Eli Manning level) at this stage. The traditional elite QBs are aging/retiring. Throw your hat in the ring in this window, the roster is not off by leaps and bounds with leadership at QB. 

 

What this team needs is impact players in the front seven. The extra picks are great, but you need those guys to make an impact almost immediately. 

 

S Derwin James

G Quenton Nelson

S Minkah Fitzpatrick

ILB Roquan Smith 
WR Courtland Sutton

DE Christian Wilkins

 

What I would hope for assuming the Redskins are in the 7-12 range.

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I just caught RG3's (ironically) take on NFL Live on Mayfield.  His take is he has to play out of the shotgun (like he's used to in college) because he won't be able to see over the heads of the O lineman/D lineman -- suggesting he'd struggle otherwise.  Polian kicked in that the dude doesn't have the foot quickness to be another Wilson and he sees him more of a Brees type if he succeeds in the NFL.   Then we had Tebow weeks back saying he doesn't think Mayfield can run an NFL style offense and you got to keep him in the spread.

 

I am not really landing hard for or against Mayfield one way or another.  I am just against going QB in the draft period.  But throwing some critiques considering the sources to throw some devil's advocate material to some of the sunshine some have posted on him.

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