stevemcqueen1

2018 Comprehensive NFL Draft Thread

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36 minutes ago, UK SKINS FAN '74 said:

 

I get the sense we are going to be very active in FA and the draft, in respect of moving around, trading players, picks etc. I think there is a lot going on behind the scenes.

 

With regards to Trent M, he can go for my money. Prior to being caught juiced up he was average. Damaged goods who is more likely average than great.

 

Should be interesting.  The thing is though by Bruce's standards guys like Breeland, Murphy, Galette, Z. Brown are elite signings if they were on the market coming from other teams.  Getting one of those type of guys, maybe at most two would be a splurge.  So to make up ground alone, Bruce would have to be more aggressive than he typically is in FA -- let alone to take a step forward.  

 

Hope they are aggressive because hearing from three different beat guys that the people they talk to at Redskins Park give them the vibe that they think they are really close to being very good -- if so, I hope that doesn't translate to a bit of a coasting approach to FA.

 

I also thought it was interesting and telling when John Keim (who typically is close to on the money) said the indications he gets is they won't draft Roquan Smith if they sign Zach Brown in FA.  That to me is a win now motif.  The idea that we don't need another Mo LB since we got one on the roster. 

 

Finlay said players tell him more than anything they feel like they need a real nose tackle.  Don't know if that seeped to the FO or they care what the players think but if they do maybe all the talk about Vea or Payne has some merit to it.  But doubt they can get either guy if they trade down far. 

 

21 minutes ago, Rufus T Firefly said:

Or, since we don't really have that much cap to play with (contrary to many people's beliefs), 

 

Yeah that's one of my issues with the trade -- I guess we will wait to see how its set up but saw one report that in spite of the 17 million he had in his last year of his Chiefs contract it counts 20 million against the cap.

Edited by Skinsinparadise

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14 minutes ago, UK SKINS FAN '74 said:

 

Wrong thread I guess, but who would you keep from our own ideally.

I really would have trouble answering that as this offseason has already diverged quite far from what my plan would have been. 

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4 hours ago, skinny21 said:

And by the way, Allen has a stud next to him in Ioannidas, but we saw what happened when they went down... when he returned, Ioannidas played well without Allen, but he needed a better player next to him.  

I actually don’t think Ioannidis was ever really fully healed from the broken hand.  That’s an injury you can play with, but it takes about 8-10 weeks to get healed and actually get full strength back.  4-6 weeks to get the bone to heal up, then another 6-4 weeks to really rebuild the strength. 

 

I think he was just starting to really regain strength when the season ended.  

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So here are my ILB productivity rankings for this draft class. Let me get this straight right off the bat. Roquan Smith is by far the best ILB in the draft. You do not need a crystal ball to see this but there is no debate that he is the best one. No other discussion needed on that. My ones to look for are Layton Vander Esch and Joesy Jewell. I would not be surpised to see Vander Esch slip into the back end of the first. Him along with Jewell are my picks for guys after the first round. As far as disappointments? Another Bama guy. Rashaan Evans to me is another hyped up Bama product. I know a lot are into him but his tape does not hold up. Some people have suggested he is as good or better than Smith. Not a chance. I would not take him until the 3rd. I think he could be a good pro but the hype once again does not match the stats or the tape. Malik Jefferson. Yikes. This guy could posses all the talent in the world but boy does he not give out max effort. He disappoints me more than any other ILB. I hope we stay away from him and he is not one of those coach em up guys. I think he is lazy. Anywho onto the rankings!

 

3-4 ILB Solo Tackles Sacks TFL Total School SOS Draft Rank  
Josey Jewell 14.4 15.5 21.4 51.3 Iowa 3 3  
Roquan Smith 16.3 19.1 15 50.4 Georgia 8 1  
Tegray Scales 10.7 17.6 14.3 42.6 Indiana 29 5  
Micah Kiser 11.3 17.8 13.5 42.6 Virginia 46 4  
Leighton Vander Esch 16.2 12.1 10.8 39.1 Boise State 69 2  
Malik Jefferson 13.7 12.9 12.1 38.7 Texas 40 4  
Rashaan Evans 7 15.3 13 35.3 Alabama 22 3  
Oren Burks* 9.8 3.7 9.3 22.8 Vanderbilt 57 4  
Shaun Dion Hamilton 4 6.4 5 15.4 Alabama 22 5  
Tre' Williams 4.8 7.1 3.1 15 Auburn 11 5-6  
Airius Moore 6.3 0 2.4 8.7 North Carolina State 21 6  
                 
                 
                 
                 
                 
                 
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I don't see Tremaine Edumunds VT in that list.  

 

Even picking early at #13 it's a complete mystery at this point who is going to be available that grades out at the top half of the first round.  Usually to have the possibility of a trade down there has to be a rookie of value to another team.  Skins would have to trade all the way down to around #21 to be able to replace the mid third round pick they gave up for the new QB.  If Roquan Smith and the top DT were gone would it be worth such a big trade down?  I'm not looking for a RB or WR at the #13 pick.

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3 minutes ago, PlayAction said:

I don't see Tremaine Edumunds VT in that list.  

I didn't include because a lot of what I have read is that people are having a hard time placing him position wise. The most agreement I keep seeing with him is an 4-3 OLB so I did not include for comparison.

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1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Yeah that's one of my issues with the trade -- I guess we will wait to see how its set up but saw one report that in spite of the 17 million he had in his last year of his Chiefs contract it counts 20 million against the cap.

 

Id say the Smith deal will be structured however we need it to be. We'll build his 4 year extension in and work the 5/111 into what works based on pending FA moves.

 

Could be any number up to 20mil, I think we will restructure his 2018 cap number down to 15mil max.

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12 minutes ago, UK SKINS FAN '74 said:

Could be any number up to 20mil, I think we will restructure his 2018 cap number down to 15mil max.

Yeah, I expect them to backload it to lower that first year cap hit, so we can have money for FAs now.

 

Because we need to win as much as possible in 2018 to ensure Bruce's job.

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14 hours ago, Rufus T Firefly said:

Yeah, I expect them to backload it to lower that first year cap hit, so we can have money for FAs now.

 

Because we need to win as much as possible in 2018 to ensure Bruce's job.

 

That's what I'd think.  It's tough for me to figure what to root for to happen.  In one sense nothing makes me happier to see Bruce's neck on the line so in turn lackluster moves this off season has a long term upside to it -- on the other hand just on pure reflex of course I am always rooting for the best course of action. 

 

The vibe they are giving for FA at the moment at least is that they are letting most of their crop go. The problem is its not a really stacked FA class.  So in concept I get they can go nuts for a Calais Campbell type -- problem is there is no Calais Campbell types -- big time guys that fit needs that are hitting the market.  Some good players but I don't see the splash signing that's obvious unless Le'veon Bell makes it to FA.  Maybe Norwood and now we can say we got an O line like Dallas?

 

But to me the John Keim drill of he heard Roquan Smith is off the table if they sign Zach Brown is either telling for a win now philosophy or they just love the dude so much they are going out of their way to fool Keim about it.   If its all in for now -- I presume less of a BPA approach in the draft and more need base.  And if so FA, would have a heavier than usual influence on the draft.

 

Going back to the draft with Fuller gone and Breeland likely going and Norman not getting any younger.  I think CB would be heavy need base, especially a guy who can play slot.  I am not sleeping on Denzel Ward if he drops to 13.  Ditto the 2nd round if someone drops like Davis, Jackson, Alexander, etc.  We talk about the 2nd round pick might be a sweet spot for RB, ditto CB IMO.

 

 

Edited by Skinsinparadise

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@SkinsinparadiseHate the idea that losing Breeland and Fuller ‘forces’ us to take a corner early... but it is what it is.  

 

Cant recall if this has been posted, but a more up-to-date draft trade value chart (based on trades since rookie wage scale intro in 2012). 

 

https://www.patspulpit.com/2017/4/23/15398184/2017-nfl-draft-creating-a-brand-new-nfl-draft-value-trade-chart

 

Looks like trading back to late 1st = mid 2nd rounder; trading back to teens and then to late 20’s = a mid 3rd and then an early 3rd.  

 

Both of those sound great to me.  

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19 hours ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

I actually don’t think Ioannidis was ever really fully healed from the broken hand.  That’s an injury you can play with, but it takes about 8-10 weeks to get healed and actually get full strength back.  4-6 weeks to get the bone to heal up, then another 6-4 weeks to really rebuild the strength. 

 

I think he was just starting to really regain strength when the season ended.  

Yeah, I thought he played well, but wasn’t the same as he was earlier.  Makes sense the injury would have been a big factor.  Looking forward to seeing him and Allen together again.  

 

 

I like Phillips and Bryan, but I wonder if they are perhaps avoided because they can’t also play NT.  

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I just did a sick FanSpeak where I was aggressive in FA and traded down in realistic scenarios and got a lot of guys I like. Then I had an epiphame ... we really are quite close and don't have a TON of roster spots right now. 

 

For example ... I signed Bennie Logan for $7m a year and Lamarcus Joyner for $7m a year. Then I drafted Harrison Phillips at #21 with a trade-down with Buffalo and used some extra picks to draft NT Kendrick Norton in the 4th and FS Armani Watts in the 4th ...

 

Except by adding Logan, Phillips and Norton I realized that we likely only keep 6 DLs and I can't see us parting with both Macs to make room for them (Assuming Ionidis, Lanier and Allen are safe).

 

Similarly, but to a slightly lesser extent, by signing Joyner to play FS, I don't know if you draft a Watts, making Nicholson and/or Everett obsolete (likely Everett). 

 

So again, while we need a back-end CB and starting FS, DL, RB, WR, LG ... I'd argue that we have pretty good depth across the board that both being active in FA and in the draft is a bit overkill.

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25 minutes ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

I just did a sick FanSpeak where I was aggressive in FA and traded down in realistic scenarios and got a lot of guys I like. Then I had an epiphame ... we really are quite close and don't have a TON of roster spots right now. 

 

For example ... I signed Bennie Logan for $7m a year and Lamarcus Joyner for $7m a year. Then I drafted Harrison Phillips at #21 with a trade-down with Buffalo and used some extra picks to draft NT Kendrick Norton in the 4th and FS Armani Watts in the 4th ...

 

Except by adding Logan, Phillips and Norton I realized that we likely only keep 6 DLs and I can't see us parting with both Macs to make room for them (Assuming Ionidis, Lanier and Allen are safe).

 

Similarly, but to a slightly lesser extent, by signing Joyner to play FS, I don't know if you draft a Watts, making Nicholson and/or Everett obsolete (likely Everett). 

 

So again, while we need a back-end CB and starting FS, DL, RB, WR, LG ... I'd argue that we have pretty good depth across the board that both being active in FA and in the draft is a bit overkill.

I’ve been saying for ages we have a good roster with almost zero impact players at impact positions (Pass rush as a whole, WR, RB).

 

We have an 8-8 roster.  What takes that to 10-6+ are impact players. We need impact players.  

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1 hour ago, skinny21 said:

@SkinsinparadiseHate the idea that losing Breeland and Fuller ‘forces’ us to take a corner early... but it is what it is.  

 

 

Yeah I don't know if forces is the right word but I think corner is a need and it might meet BPA or close enough.  I know some say Holsey could be the guy in the slot.  But we got no idea until that plays out.  For years, we've gotten killed out of the slot.   It's been a weakness. Last year out of nowhere it became a strength and now arguably we are back to square one or at least its a question.  So I am not adverse to drafting someone like Ward in the first or Alexander in the 2nd if they fall to our picks because arguably their skill set should allow them to play the slot well. 

 

I am not saying corner is my top desire.  It's not, actually. I am just thinking if they are thinking its a win now year -- it might be what they do.  

 

6 minutes ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

I’ve been saying for ages we have a good roster with almost zero impact players at impact positions (Pass rush as a whole, WR, RB).

 

We have an 8-8 roster.  What takes that to 10-6+ are impact players. We need impact players.  

 

Yeah that's a theme with me.  That's why I hope they go for lets say 2 big signings in FAs versus 4 low level guys and 2 medium level guys

Edited by Skinsinparadise

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So going with my off season of signing LG Cooper, FS Joyner and re-signing Gallette and Brown ... and the trade-down I got from Buffalo ... 

 

1.21: Harrison Phillips, DT Stanford

2.12: DJ Moore, WR Maryland

2.21: Nick Chubb, RB Georgia

4.12: Kendrick Norton, NT Miami

5.12: Kevin Tolliver, CB LSU 

 

impact on DL, playmakers at RB and WR and depth for NT and CB. Starting FS and LG 

 

read a write up on Cooper saying he’s not great And can’t anchor a line as a premier FA but would Fit very well on an already established front and would be expected at $3-4m a year.  Made me think of us

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Also read a couple mocks that say Payne or Vea are best fits for skins but can be had in a trade back. I think dropping back to around 20 and adding a 2nd while grabbing a DL of Payne (or in my case Phillips) would be great. I think Payne fills biggest need but Phillips could be elite opposite Allen (and making Ionidis high end rotational depth). Maybe draft Phillips if we sign Logan and Payne if we don’t. 

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12 minutes ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

Also read a couple mocks that say Payne or Vea are best fits for skins but can be had in a trade back. I think dropping back to around 20 and adding a 2nd while grabbing a DL of Payne (or in my case Phillips) would be great. I think Payne fills biggest need but Phillips could be elite opposite Allen (and making Ionidis high end rotational depth). Maybe draft Phillips if we sign Logan and Payne if we don’t. 

I would only trade back if there was no elite impact player at any position available.  

 

This is is the year to be aggressive and get a few impact players.  Not collect more good players. 

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I still don't think we are going to get that big NT. They do not value that spot like most want them too and the league is going away from it too it seems. With it being so passing heavy the true fat boys get caught on the field and get the defense destroyed. Our game against GB in the playoffs a few years ago is a perfect example of wearing out fat boys on the line. Look for someone slightly under the 300 pound mark for the draft target that can also rush the passer. They are not going to just draft a run stuff and if they by chance do that's going to be a late round pick.

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1 hour ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

I would only trade back if there was no elite impact player at any position available.  

 

This is is the year to be aggressive and get a few impact players.  Not collect more good players. 

 

Thank you! You don't become a championship team with good players. You need a couple of difference makers. That should be our focus in the draft with the first pick. 

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1 hour ago, fordranger76 said:

I still don't think we are going to get that big NT. They do not value that spot like most want them too and the league is going away from it too it seems. With it being so passing heavy the true fat boys get caught on the field and get the defense destroyed. Our game against GB in the playoffs a few years ago is a perfect example of wearing out fat boys on the line. Look for someone slightly under the 300 pound mark for the draft target that can also rush the passer. They are not going to just draft a run stuff and if they by chance do that's going to be a late round pick.

 

You might be right.  One of the beat guys said from talking to a source close to the action their concern is getting sliced in the run game in nickel.  Hence they are looking for a DT who can do it all -- sort of like Jonathan Allen Part 2.  Wonder though if that guy is in this draft?  Some say Payne develops into that.  Vea for a big guy moves relatively well -- wonder if he runs under a 5 in the combine which some think he might do -- whether that bolsters interest in him.

 

If its plug and play with more of a win now mindset is in play wonder if Ridley is in consideration.  He will be 24 and is arguably more polished and NFL ready than the average prospect. 

 

Personally, I'd scramble to trade down in the first maybe even twice.  And take one of the RBs who is still there:  Guice, Michel and Jones.  With the extra picks in the 2nd-3rd, likely a good DT, CB or WR might be there. 

9 minutes ago, wilco_holland said:

 

Thank you! You don't become a championship team with good players. You need a couple of difference makers. That should be our focus in the draft with the first pick. 

 

I typically agree and still do in concept.  But if a surprise player doesn't drop to 13 -- lets say a guy like Fitzpatrick is there, I'd take him in a heartbeat -- otherwise, I'd trade down and in my case only for one reason I love Guice, Jones, Michel and it looks like mid-to later first round is the sweet spot for them.    

Edited by Skinsinparadise
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So I agree on needing impact for sure. But I do think this draft, the impact guys at positions of need for us can be had a bit later hence the idea of trading back. In these mock drafts we are Missing the top tier of talent which puts us in a spot to trade down and still get our guy. 

 

Impact guys that I like being Phillips, Jones, Michel ... guys that will be drafted in the 20’s. Roquan Smith, Derwin James, Quenton Nelson being the exceptions If they fall. But depending on how FA goes we may not want or need those positions 

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1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said:

I typically agree and still do in concept.  But if a surprise player doesn't drop to 13 -- lets say a guy like Fitzpatrick is there, I'd take him in a heartbeat -- otherwise, I'd trade down and in my case only for one reason I love Guice, Jones, Michel and it looks like mid-to later first round is the sweet spot for them.    

Yeah, it sounds great to talk about going for higher impact, but it doesn't always work that way. To me, there doesn't seem to be a big drop-off in talent in the area we're talking about. And you have to look at what position you're interested in. At a lot of positions we might be interested in (RB, G ILB, CB) the top guy available at 13 could be available 10 spota later. 

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I think an Allen/Ion DT combo works just fine if you draft a Roquon Smith and pair him with Brown at ILB. Along with Kerrigan and Smith, that's a hell of a front seven.

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1 hour ago, Rufus T Firefly said:

Yeah, it sounds great to talk about going for higher impact, but it doesn't always work that way. To me, there doesn't seem to be a big drop-off in talent in the area we're talking about. And you have to look at what position you're interested in. At a lot of positions we might be interested in (RB, G ILB, CB) the top guy available at 13 could be available 10 spota later. 

Agree.  Vea or Payne at 13, or trade down and take Phillips or Bryan (and there’s a chance Payne or Vea drop).  Guice at 13, or Jones later, etc. 

 

To take that a step further... if we don’t trade down and pick up a 2nd or 3rd, we’re losing a chance at another impact guy.  

 

There are certainly some guys I’m hesitant to pass on though - Nelson, Fitzpatrick, and Smith, for example.  

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51 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

I think an Allen/Ion DT combo works just fine if you draft a Roquon Smith and pair him with Brown at ILB. Along with Kerrigan and Smith, that's a hell of a front seven.

 

I think the reason why Keim is saying if they bring Zach Brown they are unlikely to sign Roquan Smith is they both seem natural Mo-LBs versus Mike-LBs.   

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