stevemcqueen1

2018 Comprehensive NFL Draft Thread

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2 minutes ago, OVCChairman said:

 


I completely agree.  Especially on running plays.

Passing plays he moves inside where he doesn't need to contain and can use his elite get off speed to penetrate. Run plays he slides left to ragdoll right tackles and redirect backs into the line. 

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I’m not expecting dominance from this group (not at first anyway), but I do think they’re going to give some olines big problems.  

 

If they can figure out a way to cover TEs and slot receivers (and backs), this could wind up being a heck of a defense.  

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9 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

Same chicken/egg conversation as our running game. 

 

While yes i feel if we had better personnel we could run it more, but looking at info like this

 

https://www.hogshaven.com/2018/2/2/16963846/are-the-redskins-really-a-3-4-defense-under-greg-manusky

 

You wonder how much of it is Manusky doing his work and aligning based on the opposing offense?  

 

Quote

Much has been made about the Redskins 3-4 defense. There are three type of fans when it comes to this defensive philosophy: 1) Those who can’t stand it, and realize we have better personnel for the 4-3; 2) Those who accept it, and want a true nose tackle; 3) Those who don’t accept it, and realize we are in our base defense less than 30% of the time.

 

I fall into category three.

 

Are the Redskins a true base 3-4 team? No, and here is why.

 

The spread offense has hit the NFL, and it is here to stay. In 2017, the most common personnel grouping was 11 personnel, meaning there was one running back, one tight end, and three receivers. This formation was used 58 percent of the time by teams in 2017. The next most common grouping was 12 personnel, which has one running back, two tight ends and two receivers. This was used 20 percent of the time in 2017. Teams were in 22 personnel (two running backs, two tight ends), just four percent of the time in 2017.

 

 

If you agree with this article, and I personally do, then the statement of a 3-4 base is just something to put in Madden so you can see what your defensive playbook looks like.  Manusky is calling a defensive formation and package based on what the offense is going to do.  We can't trot out a 3-4 when there's 3 WR or 2WR and Zach Ertz on the field.  We need nickle coverage and our LBs are not capable of flexing out and doing that.  Manusky knows this so he adjusts.  

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2 minutes ago, OVCChairman said:

 

While yes i feel if we had better personnel we could run it more, but looking at info like this

 

https://www.hogshaven.com/2018/2/2/16963846/are-the-redskins-really-a-3-4-defense-under-greg-manusky

 

You wonder how much of it is Manusky doing his work and aligning based on the opposing offense?  

 

 

 

If you agree with this article, and I personally do, then the statement of a 3-4 base is just something to put in Madden so you can see what your defensive playbook looks like.  Manusky is calling a defensive formation and package based on what the offense is going to do.  We can't trot out a 3-4 when there's 3 WR or 2WR and Zach Ertz on the field.  We need nickle coverage and our LBs are not capable of flexing out and doing that.  Manusky knows this so he adjusts.  

I mostly agree with that. Our LBers are much more runcentric than pass, partially because we haven't had a line that can do their job. 

 

Ideally, the less players on the line, the better, because they cover less field. 

 

We've also had major safety issues. With the constant hole at FS, it forces everyone to play safer with no net. 

 

If we could establish 3 affective players on the line to contain and disrupt, it frees the LBers to zone more aggressively towards the backs and athletic TEs. 

 

We've had 4 DL and 2/3 LBers playing run focused, with a safety and still awful. 

 

So, while I agree with that article I think a point can be made about a 333 formation with the joker 3rd safety becoming more popular and the SS becoming more like the FS, the way it was in the 80s.

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2 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

I mostly agree with that. Our LBers are much more runcentric than pass, partially because we haven't had a line that can do their job. 

 

Ideally, the less players on the line, the better, because they cover less field. 

 

We've also had major safety issues. With the constant hole at FS, it forces everyone to play safer with no net. 

 

If we could establish 3 affective players on the line to contain and disrupt, it frees the LBers to zone more aggressively towards the backs and athletic TEs. 

 

We've had 4 DL and 2/3 LBers playing run focused, with a safety and still awful. 

 

So, while I agree with that article I think a point can be made about a 333 formation with the joker 3rd safety becoming more popular and the SS becoming more like the FS, the way it was in the 80s.

 

 

The root of the whole thing IMHO is lack of talent, so you very well may be right.  Defensive coordinators dream of being able to get pressure with a 3 man front.  It opens everything up on the back end.  Now that we have the beef, lets move some ground.  

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9 minutes ago, OVCChairman said:

 

 

The root of the whole thing IMHO is lack of talent, so you very well may be right.  Defensive coordinators dream of being able to get pressure with a 3 man front.  It opens everything up on the back end.  Now that we have the beef, lets move some ground.  

Totally agree. Hard to believe what we might have in Iaonnidas (late round Temple boy woot), Allen, Payne and Settle. If Lanier can take the next step and Taylor stays healthy, it could really be special. 

 

Beginning of last year, Allen and Iaon both looked like players who needed to be doubled and we had no-one in between them. If Payne, Settle or Taylor can be that force, we'll see a lot more 34/33 I think. 

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2 hours ago, skinny21 said:

I’m not expecting dominance from this group (not at first anyway), but I do think they’re going to give some olines big problems.  

 

If they can figure out a way to cover TEs and slot receivers (and backs), this could wind up being a heck of a defense.  

Any play another team plans to block Allen one on one he is going to eat well I think.

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3 hours ago, OVCChairman said:

 

 

We ran the base defense (3-4) less than 30% of the time last year, so I'd imagine they didn't put a premium on a top tier interior space eater for a package that see's less than 15 snaps a game.  We 'claim' that our base defense is a 3-4 but the vast majority of the time we run a nickle (4-2-5) defense, which would be a lot more of a fit for the personnel we have been targeting in years passed.

 

As far as the subs go for a 3-4, i agree, but like i said, while we claim it's our base, the offensive alignments and scouting reports prevent us from living in that package.  

 

All of which you say is true and has been stated a million times here and by beat guys covering the team-- so no argument that they aren't in 3-4 most of the time.  However, not to reignite the nose discussion that's been had here and the FA thread to death -- so just the highlights from me:  that is, being sliced apart by the opponent 30% of the time, is too much.  We can't just put the other team automatically at 2 and 5 on just about every obvious run down without it having an impact, ditto allowing teams to convert short in distance in critical moments in games. 

 

Trying to recall the game, maybe it was the Arizona one the year before where the opponent had the ball on their side of the field, if I recall it was 4th down and 3 in a key moment in the game and they didn't even hesitate to go for it.  It's the Redskins defense -- short distance, no problem, we will get it, and they did.   

 

And this is coming from a guy who didn't love the Payne pick (I didn't hate it but I think there were better players on the board, and Ozzie Newsome rubbing in today that James is a stud and he would have taken him at 16 doesn't make me feel any better :)).  But yeah to me 25-30% of the time doesn't faze me as for nose not being a major priority -- I've just seen the movie too long about how they've been burned by not having beast run stuffers up front.

 

I get the whole they are in nickel and naturally they get sliced in the run in nickel too.   The Giants are a 4-3 team, switching now to a 3-4.  But even in 4-3 you can have your tackle play 0-1 and specialize in stopping the run.  Damon Harrison is on the field a lot.   Giants have 2 monster run stuffers in the middle in Tomlinson and Harrison.  And they often play in passing downs.  I think a lot of it depends on who you play against.  If you got a beast RB like the Cowboys they run plenty against nickel.  The Giants in 2016 gave Dallas loads of problems in part because they were so stout up the middle. 

 

I was just watching the coaches film on the last Giants game and saw that Darkwa long run for a TD.  Redskins playing 4 guys up front -- Lanier, Ionnaidis, Kerrigan, P. Smith.   On that play they had Lanier playing almost on top of the center -- 1 shaded slightly on the right side.  Lanier was handled completely by the center, they took him out of the play. Darkwa runs to his right, cuts through Ionnaidis and Vigil and then daylight.

 

My point is If you are playing against a dynamic running back like Elliot or Barkley, I would not have a bad-mediocre run stopper playing 0-1 unless its really long distance.  Even though I don't love Payne but like him, if he can push the pocket some, he's likely the perfect type of nose to play nickel. 

 

 

Edited by Skinsinparadise

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6 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

All of which you say is true and has been stated a million times here and by beat guys covering the team-- so no argument that they aren't in 3-4 most of the time.  However, not to reignite the nose discussion that's been had here and the FA to death -- just the highlights:  being sliced apart by the opponent 30% of the time, is too much.  We can't just put the other team automatically at 2 and 5 on just about every obvious run down without it having an impact, ditto allowing teams to convert short in distance. 

 

 

 

yep

 

2 hours ago, OVCChairman said:

 

 

The root of the whole thing IMHO is lack of talent, so you very well may be right.  Defensive coordinators dream of being able to get pressure with a 3 man front.  It opens everything up on the back end.  Now that we have the beef, lets move some ground.  

 

 

 

I agree with literally everything you said.  The root of the problem is not the 'base defense' as everyone freaks out about.  It's the personnel we have on the field.  I continually see people scream about how we've got a terrible defensive system because we run a 3-4 base, but we in fact run a 3-4 relatively infrequently.  The team understands that we don't have the personnel to live and die with a 3-4, and based on the offensive alignment that we're facing, it's a moot point anyway.  We don't line up in a 3-4 because what we're up against isn't a good matchup for it.  The issue is not the defensive alignment, it's the talent on the field.

Edited by OVCChairman
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Basically any time someone blames the 34 and suggests we have to move back to a 43 to be effective, I just skip their posts.

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5 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

Basically any time someone blames the 34 and suggests we have to move back to a 43 to be effective, I just skip their posts.

 

:cheers:

 

I'll have to try that next time

 

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1 hour ago, OVCChairman said:

 

:cheers:

 

I'll have to try that next time

 

Now, if we want to talk about over/under 34 vs the 335 nickle, I'm down. I love those.

 

The 335 joker, which I think Everett might be able to play, is fun. You can be very aggressive and fast.

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12 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

Now, if we want to talk about over/under 34 vs the 335 nickle, I'm down. I love those.

 

The 335 joker, which I think Everett might be able to play, is fun. You can be very aggressive and fast.

 

I had high hopes that Cravens would take that role and run with it.  Then when the Honey Badger was available, I figured he would be the perfect guy to fit that role.  

 

Another idea at this spot is the rookie Hamilton we drafted.  He's listed at 6'0 229 which is a little short, and a little heavy for that... but he appears to have + zone coverage skills, has a very strong ability to read and react, and he's got the size to possibly knock TEs off their routes.  You wonder about the knees and if he's got the ability to come back with enough speed to play that role, but his major positives are his football IQ and his instincts.  If we can take a guy like him and move him around, in and out of the box, as well as let him drop into zone, he could create some headaches for the QBs, and allow Foster and Brown to play downhill. 

 

 

Good Lord... i didnt realize Tyronn Mathiu was 5'9 / 189, i thought he was bigger than that.  

Edited by OVCChairman
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How about Josh Harvey-clemons in that role and Dion being groomed as the replacement for Foster?

 

I'm most interested in the year 2 development of Harvey-clemons and Holsey for our defense.

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1 hour ago, OVCChairman said:

 

I had high hopes that Cravens would take that role and run with it.  Then when the Honey Badger was available, I figured he would be the perfect guy to fit that role.  

 

Another idea at this spot is the rookie Hamilton we drafted.  He's listed at 6'0 236 which is a little short, and a little heavy for that... but he appears to have + zone coverage skills, has a very strong ability to read and react, and he's got the size to possibly knock TEs off their routes.  You wonder about the knees and if he's got the ability to come back with enough speed to play that role, but his major positives are his football IQ and his instincts.  If we can take a guy like him and move him around, in and out of the box, as well as let him drop into zone, he could create some headaches for the QBs, and allow Foster and Brown to play downhill. 

Exactly my thought too.I wouldn't be surprised to see him IR'd for the year though. Harvey Clemmons kind of fits that also, doesn't he?

 

Honestly, I'm a lot behind on the teams depth because of limited internet and power issues from this past year. ****ing hurricanes.

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6 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

Exactly my thought too.I wouldn't be surprised to see him IR'd for the year though. Harvey Clemmons kind of fits that also, doesn't he?

 

Honestly, I'm a lot behind on the teams depth because of limited internet and power issues from this past year. ****ing hurricanes.

 

 

Well that's where it gets fun...

 

According to him he'll be ready this season.  

 

http://www.redskins.com/news/article-1/Close-To-Full-Health-Shaun-Dion-Hamilton-Ready-To-Bring-Winning-Mentality/150cbd58-5500-49f0-baeb-ee18f1c5ab96

 

Quote

“I'm just continuing to rehab and things like that,” Hamilton said. “I'm about 85-90 percent right now, so I'm going to be full speed by the time of training camp.” 

 

 

It woudlnt hurt to curb him for a season though.  Let our DR take a good long look at him, work with him on rehab, and see if they can't strengthen him further.  He's likely to be a package type player if he's luck anyway.. 

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3 hours ago, XxSpearheadxX said:

Any play another team plans to block Allen one on one he is going to eat well I think.

Yeah, I think Allen and Payne are two guys that (assuming Payne is tasked with 1 gapping) teams are going to regret not doubling.  Ioannidas as well, but more in pass rush than run stopping I think.  

48 minutes ago, SkinsFootball said:

How about Josh Harvey-clemons in that role and Dion being groomed as the replacement for Foster?

 

I'm most interested in the year 2 development of Harvey-clemons and Holsey for our defense.

Holsey stepping up in a big way would be huge for this D.  JHC too, though he’s gonna have to show a lot to see the field much more (just because it’ll be tough to turn into more than a dimebacker given the guys ahead of him).  He’s got a lot of positive attributes though.  

48 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

Exactly my thought too.I wouldn't be surprised to see him IR'd for the year though. Harvey Clemmons kind of fits that also, doesn't he?

 

Honestly, I'm a lot behind on the teams depth because of limited internet and power issues from this past year. ****ing hurricanes.

JHC is a stud of a tackler with the size (6’4 I believe?) to make a difference.  He has the hips to turn and run too.  Has experience playing safety, ILB (I think some OLB) in college and played the same dimebacker role for us that Cravens did.  Has to work on his angles to the ball carrier and his man coverage, but he’s got the wingspan to affect throwing lanes and windows, and rarely misses a tackle if he gets his hands on the ball carrier.  

 

Truly believe that he could be a weapon for us if he keeps developing.  One last thing about him - I believe he was a 5 star recruit that left Georgia after 2 drug offenses.  Comes across as genuinely contrite and knows he was being young and stupid.  I believe he would have been a relatively high pick if it weren’t for that.  Here’s hoping he continues to stay clean.  

Edited by skinny21
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1 hour ago, OVCChairman said:

 

Between the comment about Ryan Anderson and Doug saying he called Jonathan Allen before they took Payne telling him he better be right.  Wonder how aggressive the Alabama guys were in selling these guys?  Not saying that's bad.  I've liked everything I've read-seen about Hamilton.   

 

https://www.montgomeryadvertiser.com/story/sports/college/alabama/2018/04/28/know-im-going-get-drafted-washington-redskins-pick-alabama-linebacker-shaun-dion-hamilton/561768002/

Hamilton said his Crimson Tide teammate, Redskins linebacker Ryan Anderson, told him Thursday that Washington was going to pick him. 

 

“He said, ‘We’re going to come get you,’” Hamilton said. “I was like, ‘OK. Cool.’ "He told that Thursday morning and he told me that Thursday night. As the draft started ticking, I’m like, I don’t know. I didn’t think I was going to get picked up. It’s just a blessing and honor and I’m glad to say all my hard work has paid off. I’m glad they’re giving me an opportunity.”

Hamilton said he was watching Neflix in his room with the door shut when his cellphone rang Saturday.

“I was telling my family I was kind of frustrated,” Hamilton said. “The cellphone rang and it was a Virginia area code. I said, ‘Let’s see what this is about.’ Coach Jay Gruden was like, ‘Hey, this is Jay Gruden from the Redskins. He asked was I ready to reunite with my Bama boys.'”

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Sip, I on one hand think it's a bit screwy that players know who were going to draft. Seems rookie. 

 

On the other hand, we have a core group of young talent that ****ing loves football and loves to put the work in and are standing on the table to bring in other guys who are the same. 

 

I'm curious if it's just lockerroom commeratory or guys who really want to win football games together. I gotta believe they asked Allen about Anderson and we know they both wanted Payne. 

 

I think relationships and strong lockerrooms win more than lose, so it's definitely important, but players being involved with the draft and Recruiting? IDK, but at least it's from a historically great defense. 

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Just something to think about. Year 1 to year 2 is supposed to show the most progress in players (as we’ve all heard). Well, these are the guys on DEF that will be making that progress (hopefully) next year:

 

Allen

Anderson

Havey-Clemons 

Holsey

Fabian

Monte

 

With the additions from the draft...the Skins DEF seems to be trending up...in possibly a bigger way they we may think. 

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11 hours ago, GhostofAlvinWalton said:

With the additions from the draft...the Skins DEF seems to be trending up...in possibly a bigger way they we may think. 

 

I went back to view Zierlein's grade's on the players from last year's class and combine them with this year's:

 

Johnathan Allen - 6.8

DaRon Payne - 6.51

Derrius Guice - 6.14

Tim Settle - 5.86

Ryan Anderson - 5.83

Fabian Moreau - 5.76

Semaje Perine - 5.68

Geron Christian - 5.61

Jeremy Sprinkle - 5.54

Chase Roullier - 5.42

Robert Davis - 5.39

Josh Harvey-Clemons - 5.37

Greg Stroman - 5.25

Trey Quinn - 5.25

Troy Apke - 5.14

Josh Holsey - 5.10

Shaun Dion Hamilton - 5.04

Montae Nicholson - 5.00

 

This is the grading scale:

 

6.50 to 6.99 = chance to become Pro-bowler

6.00 to 6.49 = should become instant starter

5.50 to 5.99 = chance to become starter

5.20 to 5.49 = back up or special teamer

5.01 to 5.19 = better than average chance to make roster

5.00 = 50/50 shot at making roster

 

So according to this grading scale, we could expect to get as many as nine starters  from these two drafts, with two of them likely to be Probowlers.  Given how unselective the Probowl tends to be, you can probably throw Guice into that mix as well.  Now Perine and Guice play the same position, but it's a committee position, so they can certainly both play a ton of snaps.

 

What's more, you can look at the positional distribution of our highest graded picks and understand that this team is building a classic smashmouth identity.  Three of our top four players are defensive linemen.  Two of our top seven are bruising running backs that drew play style comparisons to Michael Turner and Marshawn Lynch.  Another is a team-ball hustle rusher at OLB who sets a punishing edge.  Another is a brick house press corner who can run with anyone.  And then the final two are a vine-armed left tackle with basketball feet and a hard-blocking inline tight end.

 

Everything from those picks points to us becoming a Pittsburgh-style cold-weather smashmouth team that is built to stop the run, get a plus pass rush from all four down linemen, and play press man coverage on the outside.  And to run the ball when we've got it.

 

And I also think it's clear that we are getting more from some of those lower-graded prospects than Zierlein anticipated.  He had Roullier graded just below starting caliber but that guy's a starter.  Montae Nicholson is a physical, athletic safety with excellent range who can definitely start.  Holsey has the potential to at least be a high caliber nickel, and it wouldn't shock me if he ends up being able to start on the outside either.  And, as was discussed just before, Josh Harvey-Clemons has the traits to be a punishing nickel or dime linebacker and box safety.

 

And from this class, I also think that Shaun Dion Hamilton has a chance to be way better than his grade if his knee holds up.  Trey Quinn seems like one of those guys who will be impossible to cut that eventually works his way onto the field for regular work, like Ryan Grant.  And it shouldn't surprise anyone if Troy Apke ends up being a lot better than expected given the way Montae Nicholson rapidly developed.

 

A run of two to three strong draft classes in a row can create the foundation for a Superbowl contender.  I think one more great class gets us into that conversation.  Especially if it brings in high end pieces for the OL, pass rush, and/or secondary.  But on those fronts, we already have some good pieces that have panned out from previous classes and should still have more good years:

- Trent and Scherff and Moses are mainstays and we can expect to have one of the better OLs in the NFL

- Reed is a high end off-the-line Y

- Crowder is mainstay, Doctson is a recent draft pick who has a chance to be something more than just a possession receiver like our other guys

- Kerrigan is a rock

- Preston Smith is right on the cusp of being a very good every down edge player.

- Ioannidis is, at worst, a very good rotation interior DL.  At best he's a good starter.

 

And then I think we found three good players in free agency in Brown, Norman, and Swearinger who should hopefully have a couple of seasons of strong play left in the tank.

 

The elephant in the room/fly in the ointment is QB.  Not having a long term solution at the position could this building effort off at the knees.  Hopefully Alex Smith has several more years left in the tank than we have any right to expect.  And hopefully we draft a long term solution at the position soon.

Edited by stevemcqueen1
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BTW, I think the predictive value of NFL.com's grading system is supported by the accuracy it demonstrated in projecting our 2014, 2015, and 2016 classes (this grading scale only goes back to 2014).

 

Here are the grades on those guys:

Brandon Scherff - 6.49

Josh Doctson - 6.19

Sua Cravens - 5.89

Preston Smith - 5.78

Kendall Fuller - 5.64

Trent Murphy - 5.62

Matthew Ioannidis - 5.57

Morgan Moses - 5.48

Bashaud Breeland - 5.42

Jamison Crowder - 5.3

Matt Jones - 5.3

Martrell Spaight - 5.3

 

(Close your eyes)

 

Nate Sudfeld - 5.2

Keith Marshall - 5.2

Kyshoen Jarrett - 5.2

Lache Seastrunk - 5.2

Spencer Long - 5.2

Arie Kouandjio - 5.2

Ryan Grant - 5.1

Evan Spencer - 5.1

Steven Daniels - 5.1

Ted Bosler - 4.8

Zach Hocker - 4.7

Tevin Mitchell - not graded

Austin Reiter - not graded

 

Those classes ended up being bad and we probably should have seen it coming from how little value we were getting at our picks.  Especially the ones outside of the first two rounds.  2014 was horrible.  2015 was ok.  2016 had a chance to be a solid class but it got hollowed out by the loss of Fuller and Cravens and it definitely hurts that Doctson had an Achilles injury that's kept him from developing on schedule.  He wasn't a young prospect either.  He's going to turn 26 in just his third season and we're still projecting him based on potential.

 

One problem is we've been pretty bad about reaching in the third and fourth rounds.  Fuller was a home run who offered significant and obvious value at the time.  Breeland was a solid pick, and Crowder has beaten his projection.  But Spencer Long and Matt Jones were horrible reaches.  And even though they may yet pan out, I think it's pretty clear that we reached by a couple rounds on Montae Nicholson and Troy Apke and passed up several players with significantly higher grades to take them.  There is opportunity cost paid in taking them where we did.

 

But I also think we're getting better value from the picks because Moreau, Perine, and Christian were solid value selections.

 

I think it's ironic that we've gotten better at drafting since McCloughan was fired, even though he was critical in helping to establish our team-identity.

 

 

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Question: What day does the rookie mini camp start for the Skins?

 

Can't wait to see what numbers they pick. And hopefully a starting left guard emerges out of these rookies (or Kalis) sometime in the next 2 months or so. 

Edited by skinsfan212689

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1 hour ago, skinsfan212689 said:

Question: What day does the rookie mini camp start for the Skins?

 

Can't wait to see what numbers they pick. And hopefully a starting left guard emerges out of these rookies (or Kalis) sometime in the next 2 months or so. 

 

 

I wanna say i heard the 11th but i might be making that up.  

 

edit: it's the 12th

 

http://www.nbcsports.com/washington/washington-redskins/redskins-release-offseason-schedule-rookie-workouts-top-list

Edited by OVCChairman
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