stevemcqueen1

2018 Comprehensive NFL Draft Thread

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11 minutes ago, skinny21 said:

In the very little bit I watched of him, that was the one thing that stood out to me regarding Payne - his first step/explosion off the line is unreal.  

 

Agreed, and was often doubled. Personally I like to see him line up at DE.

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10 minutes ago, skinny21 said:

In the very little bit I watched of him, that was the one thing that stood out to me regarding Payne - his first step/explosion off the line is unreal.  

 

Yeah that first step is special.  His 10 yard split was actually a hundredth of a second faster than Joey Bosa's.  Only two hundredths slower than Solomon Thomas, who was almost Aaron Donald explosive.

 

Payne is a different kind of athlete at the NT position.  I feel like the people who didn't like him didn't recognize that about him.  His body control, contact balance, and first step are as good as you are going to get at the position.  His arm length is pretty good.  And he is powerful, without carrying sloppy weight--like Jonathan Allen, only bulkier.

 

Seriously his body control is so good that he can run flare routes as a fullback and pull in a TD catch in traffic at the pylon and get both feet in.  This is not a normal set of athletic traits for a NT.  He has a chance to be so much more than the fat mashers who you typically find at the position.

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Does anyone else get the sense that we're trying to recreate the early 2010 decade 49ers teams?  

 

-Talented, physical, front 7 with an extremely stout DL, OLBs great at generating pressure on opposing QBs, and rangy LBs that are good against the run

-Playmaking DB's that are tough and in your face, and aren't afraid to lay the wood

-Ball control offense, with a conservative "game manager" at QB (hell, it's the same dude) and a very good, punishing RB to lean on

 

-I don't think it's a coincidence that we brought in the GM that drafted most of the talent for those 49ers teams.  I think Bruce's plan was to pick Scot's brain and tease out the nuances in the scouting philosophy that led to those dominant 49ers teams.

-I don't think it's a coincidence that we made the trade for Smith in particular  

-I don't think it's a coincidence that we've attacked DL so heavily in the last two drafts 

-I don't think it's a coincidence that we let our two high priced WR FAs go a year ago (D Jax and Garcon) and are now the team with the fewest allocation of cap to the WR position

-I don't think it's a coincidence that Manusky is our DC and Tomsula is our DL coach (two guys that coached at one time or another on the 49ers back then)

 

There are plenty of other parallels between those teams and our current roster, such as Vernon Davis, but the point is that I think the goal has been to build a similar roster to the one that saw the 49ers make the NFCCG 3 years in a row.  IMO, that plan has finally culminated this offseason.  I think we can expect a similar ball control offense from a game-manager QB and a top defense that is going to beat up on opposing offenses and shock the league with how good it became almost overnight, similar to what it was on its way to doing after that Raiders game last year when everyone was healthy.  

 

At least, I think that is what the FO's plan was/is.

 

Or maybe I'm just too bored.

 

kroqr.jpg

 

 Is it training camp yet?

Edited by HTTRDynasty
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7 hours ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

We don't really know the nature of his heart condition though.  Except that it was serious enough for him to fall out of the first round and get sent home from the combine.  For all we know, he could never play football again.

 

First, let me say that I really respect all of your draft analysis and opinion. I'm a sport medicine physician. Hurst's issue is almost certainly hypertrophic cardiomyopathy. That carries a risk of sudden cardiac death, but doesn't affect performance. Valvular issues are much less common and other congenital issues are often surgically correctable. Rhythm issues, like Wolff-Parkinson-White, are often curable with ablation. Hurst was cleared by his own set of doctors. Clearly, you can probably almost always find someone to clear you if you want, but Hurst's heart was good enough for him to look like a potential star on the field, and he was still drafted in the top of the 5th. That's very little to give up if you are doing a risk reward analysis for a player of Hurst's caliber. IMHO. Hurst's floor and ceiling would have been super high for someone picked in the 4th round or after. 


Also, I looked up Tim Settle's 10 yard split and it was 1.81. That's pretty poor for someone that appears to have pretty good quickness off the snap. 

Edited by Anselmheifer
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I don't get the love for cats like Hurst or Settle over Payne. Casual fans reading mocks and checking grades and other silly fanboy crap believing their personal rankings are worth two ****s. Professional scouts took these guys in the **** it I'm going deep rounds for a lot of major reasons and Payne was at worst, a high second. 

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15 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

I don't get the love for cats like Hurst or Settle over Payne. Casual fans reading mocks and checking grades and other silly fanboy crap believing their personal rankings are worth two ****s. Professional scouts took these guys in the **** it I'm going deep rounds for a lot of major reasons and Payne was at worst, a high second. 


Scouts get stuff wrong all of the time. There is a long list of players that dropped and then outperformed a lot of their peers. A lot of these have been recognized in real time, not hind sight, by fans on the board, or in general. 

I'm not necessarily saying Hurst will be better than Payne. His collegiate production however was superior and he offers a natural ability to penetrate that Payne doesn't seem to possess. Payne is just 20 however and seems to have the physical skills to carry his national championship game production forward. The sense of loss with Hurst is just that we could have had him for a late 4th/early 5th, which is almost nothing in the grand scheme of things. 


I don't think Settle has much of a chance to be better than Payne. He isn't nearly the physical specimen and his tape was certainly not better. Settle is also very young though at 20. 

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Payne is on an upward trajectory, one more year at bama and he very well would have been statistically dominant. 

 

I am uber wary of a guy like settle who is in terrible physical shape leading up to the draft - after leaving college early. Its like pissing dirty at the combine - even if you don't give a crap about anything at least pretend to for a couple months. 

 

What the heck do I know, this time last year I was really thinking pryor would become legit. 

 

Payne and guice feel different to me though, I expect production from thrm for sure. 

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1 hour ago, Anselmheifer said:

Also, I looked up Tim Settle's 10 yard split and it was 1.81. That's pretty poor for someone that appears to have pretty good quickness off the snap. 

 

That's not necessarily proof he's slow off the line of scrimmage.  His 40 was lousy and it could just be proof that he's bad at running the 40.  Here is a video of his combine workouts, starting with his 40.  https://www.nfl.com/share/10103061-7033-0000-0092-5045586590f2

 

It's a bad looking 40.  Really laboring to get through it and he demonstrates poor technique.  First off, his stance is stiff and too high, he's pushing himself upright instead of launching forward.  It suggests to me that he's a little stiff in his knees and hamstrings and he isn't comfortable hanging his weight in front of his knees like you do in a proper stance.  Second, he doesn't drive the first ten yards.  He immediately stands up and starts hoofing it.

 

He generally plays low and, as a result, I think he's faster off the LoS than he is off that starting line in his 40.  He's not a good track athlete and he's got an oddly high cut build that makes his balance sketchy.  But he has a natural hunch and hip flexion and he does play low.  He's a bit of an odd duck player.

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53 minutes ago, Anselmheifer said:

I don't think Settle has much of a chance to be better than Payne. He isn't nearly the physical specimen and his tape was certainly not better. Settle is also very young though at 20. 

 

I don't think he'll be better than Payne either, but I do think his upside is pretty good.  He's a minimally experienced redshirt sophomore with some basic fitness and technique issues that can worked on.  I think he can be a solid starter.

 

One of the mistakes people might make with Payne is to see him and think he's a finished product because of how good his run defense is.  He's much more raw than that.  He is not a natural and well developed pass rusher.  He has three go-to moves (push-pull, bull, arm over-club) that show promise for defeating blocks and he has plus physical attributes and that's what he used to get some interior push at Bama.  But he is a mechanical rusher who doesn't flow into counters when his initial move gets blocked.  He just kind of concedes the battle and defaults to trying to get his hands into passing lanes.  He doesn't come to the line with a well-formed plan on pass downs.  So far as I can tell, he has no counter rushes.  And I think it's clear he lacks that instinct to finish that is so notable about the way that Allen, Anderson, and Kerrigan play.  Much more of a table setter for the rushers coming from outside.  So we're talking about a kid who is virtually undeveloped as a pass rusher.

 

Instead, he's a (formidable) read and react run defender.

 

I think he's got a ton of upside, and that it's going to take him a couple of seasons to develop that part of his game.  If he ever does.  I'm not totally sure that the instincts for rushing the passer can be massively improved at the NFL level.  But I do expect him to make big strides with experience and NFL coaching and development.  I expect the staff to make him live pass-rushing until he's seeing counters when he closes his eyes and it starts to become second nature for him.

 

Payne was a nice pick.  Tons of upside but he's mastered a bankable NFL skill that mitigates the risk of picking him and allows him to get on the field immediately. 

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1 hour ago, Anselmheifer said:

I don't think Settle has much of a chance to be better than Payne. He isn't nearly the physical specimen and his tape was certainly not better. Settle is also very young though at 20. 

I wouldn't rate them one vs another but instead see them as a unit complementing each others (run & pass rush seek and destroy). Both of them have quite a ceiling especially Settle. He did make a strong commitment to the game by losing weight and building a strong work ethic. I want to believe that he'll keep up with this mind set, sky is the limit, Hail.

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6 hours ago, Anselmheifer said:

 

First, let me say that I really respect all of your draft analysis and opinion. I'm a sport medicine physician. Hurst's issue is almost certainly hypertrophic cardiomyopathy. That carries a risk of sudden cardiac death, but doesn't affect performance. Valvular issues are much less common and other congenital issues are often surgically correctable. Rhythm issues, like Wolff-Parkinson-White, are often curable with ablation. Hurst was cleared by his own set of doctors. Clearly, you can probably almost always find someone to clear you if you want, but Hurst's heart was good enough for him to look like a potential star on the field, and he was still drafted in the top of the 5th. That's very little to give up if you are doing a risk reward analysis for a player of Hurst's caliber. IMHO. Hurst's floor and ceiling would have been super high for someone picked in the 4th round or after. 


Also, I looked up Tim Settle's 10 yard split and it was 1.81. That's pretty poor for someone that appears to have pretty good quickness off the snap. 

 

Thanks for your insight here - just to add that I'm fairly sure I've seen it reported that Hurst's issue is Hypertrophic Cardiomyopathy. No idea where I've seen that, but it ties up with your analysis.

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If we are staying on theme, I'll call the 2019 pick now, its this guy

 

 

or that guy.  Mcshay just did a 2019 mock, gave the Redskins Jennings.  If we are the new Ravens, Alabama smitten in the draft, these guys are the hot early prospects from them on defense.

 

 

Edited by Skinsinparadise
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Am I the only one that thinks Bo Scarbrough was a steal in the 7th? He was productive, if not electric in college. At the combine, at 6'1" and 228 pounds, he ran a 4.52 with a 40 inch vertical and a 129" broad jump. His 10 yard split was 1.56, or just .01 seconds slower than that of Guice. I know that that athleticism wasn't as apparent on his game tape, but I think he's still potentially a better player than Kelley and Perrine. I think he was a great value in the 7th. 

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On 5/3/2018 at 1:44 AM, FrFan said:

Both of them have quite a ceiling especially Settle. 

What makes you think Settle has a higher ceiling than Payne? I agree with you in that our unit has tons of upside. 

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I liked our draft but I feel like we could have gotten much better value in the 3rd and 4th. There was so much value to be had and we took high upside projects. Hopefully they prove me wrong and are contributing sooner rather than later.

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14 hours ago, Anselmheifer said:

Am I the only one that thinks Bo Scarbrough was a steal in the 7th? He was productive, if not electric in college. At the combine, at 6'1" and 228 pounds, he ran a 4.52 with a 40 inch vertical and a 129" broad jump. His 10 yard split was 1.56, or just .01 seconds slower than that of Guice. I know that that athleticism wasn't as apparent on his game tape, but I think he's still potentially a better player than Kelley and Perrine. I think he was a great value in the 7th. 

Yes.

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7 hours ago, XxSpearheadxX said:

What makes you think Settle has a higher ceiling than Payne? I agree with you in that our unit has tons of upside. 

Payne already has the work ethic, Settle just won his first fight vs weight and now he needs to keep up with the good conditioning, avoid inconsistency, let downs.

I don't mean he'll be better than Payne. They're not starting on the same line/level, longer and harder is the road for Settle, but I believe he can be a real steal. I just related ceiling with road length to success, you start lower higher will be your ceiling.

McShay said of Settle: He “is a wide-bodied run-plugger in the mold of Dontari Poe, with a high ceiling."

Edited by FrFan
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Adding Settle in the middle AS IS is an upgrade to what we have, simply because of what we can do around him.  All that dude needs to do is eat up double teams. 

 

if we line up in a 3 - 4,

 

Smith / Payne / Settle / Allen / Kerrigan

 

 

 

In a nickle type package, which is largely the alignment were in the most, you have 4 down lineman.  

 

Allen / Payne / Settle / Kerrigan

       Foster     /      Brown

 

Rotating in Ioannidis in possible passing situations with Settle or spelling whoever is at end, everyone has fresher legs too. 

Edited by OVCChairman

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21 minutes ago, OVCChairman said:

Adding Settle in the middle AS IS is an upgrade to what we have, simply because of what we can do around him.  All that dude needs to do is eat up double teams. 

 

 

 

I didn't get around to watching much of Settle, i noticed a couple of the draft geeks I respect weren't in love with him.   But for me in the 5th round in theory at least, great value.   He's a big body, comes off as the traditional nose.  The weird thing for me is for a team that switched to a 3-4 defense in all that time, how many big name NTs have we drafted?  Zero.  Unless I am forgetting one.   This draft they actually not only do it but do it twice. 

 

Noticing last year from watching some game film

 

When Jonathan Allen played, he just about exclusively played right-DE

Matt Ionnaidis played left-DE

Hood -- nose

 

McGee would tyically sub on the left.  McClain would typically sub on the right.  When Allen got hurt, Ioannidis played a lot on the right.

 

So based on that I'd guess, left to right

                     

   Ioannidis/McGee (3-5)      Payne/Settle (0-1)   Allen/Lanier (3-5)

 

If so the odd man out is Hood unless they keep 7 or a guy gets hurt in camp.    And Tomsula likes to sub a lot.

 

I don't love their IMO too modest FA approach this off season thus far but I do like the McPhee and Richardson signing.  As for McPhee he can play inside and I'd be surprised if he doesn't get some play that way. 

 

You got two guys on the D line who are arguably very one dimensional  McGee -- run stuffer but not much of a pass rusher.  Lanier really good pass rusher but borderline awful against the run.

 

So I am gathering Lanier subs in some third and long but otherwise doesn't play a lot unless he shores up his run defense.  


 

 

 

 

Edited by Skinsinparadise
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11 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

 

 

I didn't get around to watching much of Settle, i noticed a couple of the draft geeks I respect weren't in love with him.   But for me in the 5th round in theory at least, great value.   He's a big body, comes off as the traditional nose.  The weird thing for me is for a team that switched to a 3-4 defense in all that time, how many big name NTs have we drafted?  Zero.  Unless I am forgetting one.   This draft they actually not only do it but do it twice. 

 

Noticing last year from watching some game film

 

When Jonathan Allen played, he just about exclusively played right-DE

Matt Ionnaidis played left-DE

Hood -- nose

 

McGee would tyically sub on the left.  McClain would typically sub on the right.  When Allen got hurt, Ioannidis played a lot on the right.

 

So based on that I'd guess, left to right

                     

   Ioannidis/McGee (3-5)      Payne/Settle (0-1)   Allen/Lanier (3-5)

 

If so the odd man out is Hood unless they keep 7 or a guy gets hurt in camp.    And Tomsula likes to sub a lot.

 

I don't love their IMO too modest FA approach this off season thus far but I do like the McPhee and Richardson signing.  As for McPhee he can play inside and I'd be surprised if he doesn't get some play that way. 

 

You got two guys on the D line who are arguably very one dimensional  McGee -- run stuffer but not much of a pass rusher.  Lanier really good pass rusher but borderline awful against the run.

 

So I am gathering Lanier subs in some third and long but otherwise doesn't play a lot unless he shores up his run defense.  


 

 

 

 

 

 

We ran the base defense (3-4) less than 30% of the time last year, so I'd imagine they didn't put a premium on a top tier interior space eater for a package that see's less than 15 snaps a game.  We 'claim' that our base defense is a 3-4 but the vast majority of the time we run a nickle (4-2-5) defense, which would be a lot more of a fit for the personnel we have been targeting in years passed.

 

As far as the subs go for a 3-4, i agree, but like i said, while we claim it's our base, the offensive alignments and scouting reports prevent us from living in that package.  

Edited by OVCChairman

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I think we'll see Payne in at DE more often than we think right now. If he continues to get stronger and keeps his weight where it's at, he has a chance to be an unstoppable DE in the 34, while facing less double teams. Maybe not year one, but I think he moves that way. 

4 minutes ago, OVCChairman said:

 

 

We ran the base defense (3-4) less than 30% of the time last year, so I'd imagine they didn't put a premium on a top tier interior space eater for a package that see's less than 15 snaps a game.  We 'claim' that our base defense is a 3-4 but the vast majority of the time we run a nickle (4-2-5) defense, which would be a lot more of a fit for the personnel we have been targeting in years passed.

 

As far as the subs go for a 3-4, i agree, but like i said, while we claim it's our base, the offensive alignments and scouting reports prevent us from living in that package.  

Could be why we drafted 2 more DTs and a LBer, so we can get in our 34 more. 

 

Same chicken/egg conversation as our running game. 

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2 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

I think we'll see Payne in at DE more often than we think right now. If he continues to get stronger and keeps his weight where it's at, he has a chance to be an unstoppable DE in the 34, while facing less double teams. Maybe not year one, but I think he moves that way. 

 


I completely agree.  Especially on running plays.

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