2018 Comprehensive NFL Draft Thread

[OVCChairman]

7 minutes ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

Payne got doubled more last year than Allen did.  Payne was the nose, Allen played end and Allen didn't two gap.  And during his junior year he was a passing down sub.  They had completely different roles at Bama.  Allen also played with more talent on the line his two big years than Payne did this year.  Reed and Robinson and Tim Williams and Ryan Anderson and Dalvin Thomlinson were all draft picks who were productive.  Williams was a particular boon to Allen's production as a dominant rusher on the other side.  The only other NFL guy Payne played with on the line or at OLB was Hand, and he's not the pass rushing talent that Williams/Anderson were or the block eater that Reed and Robinson (or Payne himself) were.

 

Some of my biggest concerns with Allen during last year's evaluation were that he saw so few doubles for a potential top five blue chip DL, that he was not productive against them when he saw them, and that such a large portion of his production came when he was unblocked or blocked by tight ends.  Payne simply never had it nearly as easy as a pass rusher as Allen did.

 

Another concern I had with Allen was that, while he had great body control and was a good open field runner, he wasn't fast off the line.  Payne is actually faster and more athletic than Allen was.  He is very explosive off the line and his ten yard split is faster than Joey Bosa's and almost as fast as Solomon Thomas's was.  Payne has the potential to be a very good rusher, something he wasn't able to show as a two gapping nose and block eater at Alabama.

 

 

 

 

 

And from what limited film I've seen, Payne does not appear to be initiating forward push, instead it would look like his sole purpose in life is to maintain the LOS, read the ball and react.  

[fordranger76]

I don't want this to come off as snarky but are any of the Payne supporters watching any film on anyone else? He is not the only one getting double teamed out there however he is the only one suffering from a massive lack in production. A few guys to watch that all have better production than Payne would be Harrison Phillips, Deadrin Senat, Tim Settle, Khalil McKenzie, B.J. Hill, Kendrick Norton, and lastly Vita Vea. All of those guys I just mentioned are able to get into the backfield and cause havoc no matter the spot tech wise they are lined up at. And yes I know the stat sheet is not the end for the discussion I get that. However why is he getting a pass in this department?

 

I guess I am just trying to figure out for myself what is so appealing about him other than that jersey he is wearing? You can't honestly tell me that just because Bama had the number one rush defense that it was the sole reason he did not produce. Other members on that line produced you know? I feel like that outstanding championship game vaulted him into the stratosphere and people are still gushing over it. I do believe he is an athlete and has potential but is that the guy you want at 13 or the first round at all? A NT with potential is much different than say a RB or OLB with potential. You have to take into account he is a nose tackle and more than likely a 2 down player. Most of those guys are though in his defense but that only leads me to believe a NT taken that high is a waste of a pick.

 

And if the logic is the guy has upside do the other NT's in the draft not have it? Is Payne the only one? You can go and watch cut ups of every one of the guys listed above and see in the very least the same effectiveness out of all of them. However the difference is they should not be taken at 13 and people agree with that but for some reason Payne should be. I have also seen the 40 for Payne being talked about as well. It may show he has speed but what good is that doing plugging gaps? Honestly? People brush of the bench numbers (which he was one of the lower guys) as if they do not matter but applaud the 40. It's not making sense to me.

 

At the end of the day he very well may be a fine player who knows but drafting him early over some of the guys that may potentially be there is just silly. There are a lot of exciting NT's in this draft that I really do believe are much better than Payne that aren't even getting looked at on this board. I believe if you go and seek out the film on them you will be very pleased and surprised. 

[RWJ]

I think when it's all said and done the draft will happen this way:

 

1)  Skins will try HARD to trade down in the 1st.  IF there are not takers they will draft Guice.  In the 2nd they will look at NT/DT Settle etc. or OL Price etc.

2)  If they trade down they will still try and land Guice IF he's still available.  If not, they will look at Payne, Taven Bryan, Will Hernadez. In the 2nd, RB Nick Chubb.

 

I think Guice is their #1 target in the draft.  If they don't land him Nick Chubb is their target in the 2nd round.

 

[bowhunter]

I think they love Guice, but if a strong trade offer isn't presented they will draft Vea.

[HTTRDynasty]

1 hour ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

Payne got doubled more last year than Allen did.  Payne was the nose, Allen played end and Allen didn't two gap.  And during his junior year he was a passing down sub.  They had completely different roles at Bama.  Allen also played with more talent on the line his two big years than Payne did this year.  Reed and Robinson and Tim Williams and Ryan Anderson and Dalvin Thomlinson were all draft picks who were productive.  Williams was a particular boon to Allen's production as a dominant rusher on the other side.  The only other NFL guy Payne played with on the line or at OLB was Hand, and he's not the pass rushing talent that Williams/Anderson were or the block eater that Reed and Robinson (or Payne himself) were.

 

Some of my biggest concerns with Allen during last year's evaluation were that he saw so few doubles for a potential top five blue chip DL, that he was not productive against them when he saw them, and that such a large portion of his production came when he was unblocked or blocked by tight ends.  Payne simply never had it nearly as easy as a pass rusher as Allen did.

 

Another concern I had with Allen was that, while he had great body control and was a good open field runner, he wasn't fast off the line.  Payne is actually faster and more athletic than Allen was.  He is very explosive off the line and his ten yard split is faster than Joey Bosa's and almost as fast as Solomon Thomas's was.  Payne has the potential to be a very good rusher, something he wasn't able to show as a two gapping nose and block eater at Alabama.

 

 

 

To clarify: Payne saw more doubles in 2016 than Allen did and he CERTAINLY saw them more frequently in 2017.  He was doubled the majority of his snaps.

 

First:  Allen did indeed two gap.  It is what Nick Saban asks out of all of his DL. https://www.rollbamaroll.com/2017/5/15/15637338/offseason-knowledge-base-alabamas-base-two-gap-3-4-defensive-line

 

Second:  I've seen people use the "talent around him argument" to pump Payne up over Vea over and over this offseason.  They say Payne would be just as productive as Vea if he didn't have all that talent around him eating into his stats.  Now I'm seeing you say that Payne would have been more productive if he played with even better players, as Allen did?  I'm not saying it's you specifically making both arguments, but Payne apologists can't have it both ways.

 

My concern with Payne is that when I did see him taking on double teams, or going up against good OL, he was put on skates way too often.  That's unsettling for a top NT prospect at the NFL level.

 

 

Another one:

 

And another one...

 

 

And these are all just from one game:

 

Get's pushed back on a combo block at 1:04.

http://draftbreakdown.com/2017/07/21/daron-payne-vs-clemson-2016/

 

Washed out by a double team at 3:08.  Just lucky the ball wasn't being run at him.

http://draftbreakdown.com/2017/07/21/daron-payne-vs-clemson-2016/

 

Gets washed out at 7:22

http://draftbreakdown.com/2017/07/21/daron-payne-vs-clemson-2016/

 

Gets pancaked at 7:48 and they score a TD in his lane

http://draftbreakdown.com/2017/07/21/daron-payne-vs-clemson-2016/

 

 

[Koolblue13]

Those first two clips it's pretty obvious Paynes job was to take 2 linemen out of the play to allow teammates to swarm in and both plays went for nothing.

[HTTRDynasty]

Just now, Koolblue13 said:

Those first two clips it's pretty obvious Paynes job was to take 2 linemen out of the play to allow teammates to swarm in and both plays went for nothing.

 

Oh, boy.  So you think it was his responsibility to get pushed back 5 yards off the LOS?

[Koolblue13]

1 minute ago, HTTRDynasty said:

 

Oh, boy.  So you think it was his responsibility to get pushed back 5 yards off the LOS?

It appears his job was to have 2 less Olinemen blocking on the play and that's what happened on both plays.

 

You do know that different players have different responsibilities on different plays and it's not "everybody get um" on every play, right? It's also something Alabama is know to do with a lot of discipline. It's what makes players from that defense so attractive. 

 

Maybe he is garbage like you are seeming to imply and most scouts are all wrong, but I disagree.

[bowhunter]

I just watched some Vea clips. There were times when he was eating up THREE OL and still had penetration. Vea is a man

[Koolblue13]

Just now, bowhunter said:

I just watched some Vea clips. There were times when he was eating up THREE OL and still had penetration. Vea is a man

Post some

[skinsfan834]

I think the main problem people have with Payne is do you really want to invest the 13th pick into a guy who will play two downs? While he does have a high floor, his ceiling, IMO, isn't close to some of the prospects we could be getting at 13. We NEED to hit this pick out of the park. 

 

What our team is missing the most is top-end talent. Can we really name a single player on our team that opponents have to specifically game plan against week in and week out? Trent Williams is a stud, but the nature of his position is one where if you don't hear much about him then he is doing his job. Norman is solid, but doesn't seem to be the turnover machine that other top CB's in the league are. Jordan Reed is also great, but realistically, can we really count on him for even half of a season? 

 

This team has plenty of good players, but what we need are great players.

 

 

[HTTRDynasty]

14 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

It appears his job was to have 2 less Olinemen blocking on the play and that's what happened on both plays.

 

You do know that different players have different responsibilities on different plays and it's not "everybody get um" on every play, right? It's also something Alabama is know to do with a lot of discipline. It's what makes players from that defense so attractive. 

 

Maybe he is garbage like you are seeming to imply and most scouts are all wrong, but I disagree.

 

I'm not saying he's garbage.  Most first round NT prospects should be able to take on double teams without getting pushed back 5 yards off the LOS.  A NT's "job" is to stay stout at the point of attack when taking on double teams.  Payne does not do that in any of the clips I showed.  The very last link, from the National championship game last year, is especially pathetic.  That doesn't mean I don't think he has talent, just that he is more inconsistent in this area than any first round NT prospect I can ever remember seeing.

[OVCChairman]

12 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

Those first two clips it's pretty obvious Paynes job was to take 2 linemen out of the play to allow teammates to swarm in and both plays went for nothing.

 

 

This is what I mean when I say "stats dont lie"  TIL THEY DO.  

 

Both of those plays netted minimal gain, and both showed me that Paynes sole purpose was to occupy blockers to free up surrounding attackers.  

 

The 2nd one he took a right turn and went straight at the center allowing for no. 30 to penetrate and blow the play up.  Both of those plays he appeared to get walked, but both resulted in minimal gains for the offense. 

[Koolblue13]

6 minutes ago, skinsfan834 said:

I think the main problem people have with Payne is do you really want to invest the 13th pick into a guy who will play two downs? While he does have a high floor, his ceiling, IMO, isn't close to some of the prospects we could be getting at 13. We NEED to hit this pick out of the park. 

 

What our team is missing the most is top-end talent. Can we really name a single player on our team that opponents have to specifically game plan against week in and week out? Trent Williams is a stud, but the nature of his position is one where if you don't hear much about him then he is doing his job. Norman is solid, but doesn't seem to be the turnover machine that other top CB's in the league are. Jordan Reed is also great, but realistically, can we really count on him for even half of a season? 

 

This team has plenty of good players, but what we need are great players.

 

 

•  

Payne is an all down player, not just a space eater on run plays.

3 minutes ago, OVCChairman said:

 

 

This is what I mean when I say "stats dont lie"  TIL THEY DO.  

 

Both of those plays netted minimal gain, and both showed me that Paynes sole purpose was to occupy blockers to free up surrounding attackers.  

 

The 2nd one he took a right turn and went straight at the center allowing for no. 30 to penetrate and blow the play up.  Both of those plays he appeared to get walked, but both resulted in minimal gains for the offense. 

Stats aren't the be all end all and I think a player who proudly does all of those types of plays and sacrifices his own stats for his teammates is a major plus.

[HTTRDynasty]

This is what I want out of my NT:

 

[OVCChairman]

We're not discounting Vea's abilities, just not dismissing Payne's. 

[HTTRDynasty]

1 minute ago, OVCChairman said:

We're not discounting Vea's abilities, just not dismissing Payne's. 

 

I'm saying that I don't see that from Payne anywhere near as consistently as I see it with Vea.  Honestly, I don't see it with Payne as consistently as any other first round NT prospect I've ever watched.  That's concerning.

I think Payne would have more success in the NFL as a 3 tech than a 0 or 1 tech.  I hope whatever team takes him uses him there.  I just don't see it for him as a nose.

[Koolblue13]

2 minutes ago, OVCChairman said:

We're not discounting Vea's abilities, just not dismissing Payne's. 

VV is going to be a great player. The talk about him being lazy is concerning and if I view both as equal, I'm going with the one who's the better teammate.

[OVCChairman]

Just now, HTTRDynasty said:

 

I'm saying that I don't see that from Payne anywhere near as consistently as I see it with Vea.  Honestly, I don't see it with Payne as consistently as any other first round NT prospect I've ever watched.  That's concerning.

 

 

I get you, but I think a lot of what he was asked to do, was not flattering on film.  That there were plays that he essentially was supposed to be a crash test dummy.  The guy played on one of the top defenses in the country last year.  A lot of love for him from people that know a hell of a lot more about football than I do too.  I would agree that Vea is likely a better prospect, and I've actually tempered my excitement for Payne. That said, I think he can still be a very good, solid football player for this team.  What limited research I've been able to do on him gives me confidence that in a pro system, he can be a key guy.  

[Skinsinparadise]

Cooley today (granted the dude isn't the be all and end all on player evaluations but I trust him on defensive tackles based on his past history) goes he likes Vea and Payne equally.

 

He's being on one heck of roller coaster on the players.  He started weeks back that Payne is better.  Than it was Vea.  Then it was Payne again.  Now its they are the same.  In short, he thinks Vea is more talented and as he said a freak athletically while Payne is more consistent. He said he likes both guys.  He sees Vea going higher in the draft than Payne because of his talent.  A week ago he more or less suggested he likes but not loves both guys and thinks neither guy is much more than a two down guy.  But who knows maybe tomorrow, its something new with him.    I can't recall him ever facilating this much on two players,

 

He's been studying Guice and in his mind he's easily the 2nd best back in the draft.  In a previous segment, he said he's falling in love with Guice.

 

[skinsfan212689]

Loving the healthy discussion above great points all around... This is why I love this site...

[Darth Tater]

19 minutes ago, OVCChairman said:

 

 

I get you, but I think a lot of what he was asked to do, was not flattering on film.  That there were plays that he essentially was supposed to be a crash test dummy.  The guy played on one of the top defenses in the country last year.  A lot of love for him from people that know a hell of a lot more about football than I do too.  I would agree that Vea is likely a better prospect, and I've actually tempered my excitement for Payne. That said, I think he can still be a very good, solid football player for this team.  What limited research I've been able to do on him gives me confidence that in a pro system, he can be a key guy.  

The number 1 thing for a NT is to do his job which at 'Bama is to allow the defense to overload the POA.  No one should care much about how the job gets done, just that it gets done. First question should be which of the teams had a better defense.  Also, the player who is mentally and emotionally capable of doing what the coaches need him to do given their defense is likely the better option as a good coach can work around some slight physical issues. Look at George Allen's and Petitbon's defenses while running Redskin defense, Dave Butz was probably the only elite talent that played DT for them, and even then, Butz put up elite numbers only a couple of times.

[skinny21]

Don’t have a dog in the Vea/Payne fight, but has either guy shown he can 1 gap (as a nose and/or a 3 tech)?  

 

Also, while I know we’re more of a 1 gap D, any idea as to whether we also had 1 or more guys 2 gap with any sort of regularity?

 

As an aside, I really love the fact that Phillips was a wrestler.  Like basketball for TEs, a wrestling background seems like a great asset for dlinemen.   

[bowhunter]

1 hour ago, Koolblue13 said:

Post some

I'm sitting at DMV now. I found a vid of 2 guys reviewing his film. Primary guy hadn't even seen the clips yet, one reviewer was called "Captain Dan." It renewed my interest in Vita, and in the 4 games watched, I never saw any laziness or taking as off either. 

[OVCChairman]

45 minutes ago, Darth Tater said:

The number 1 thing for a NT is to do his job which at 'Bama is to allow the defense to overload the POA.  No one should care much about how the job gets done, just that it gets done. First question should be which of the teams had a better defense.  Also, the player who is mentally and emotionally capable of doing what the coaches need him to do given their defense is likely the better option as a good coach can work around some slight physical issues. Look at George Allen's and Petitbon's defenses while running Redskin defense, Dave Butz was probably the only elite talent that played DT for them, and even then, Butz put up elite numbers only a couple of times.

 

 

Absolutely.  I don't need a sexy, big name DT up front.  I want a quiet, yet angry as hell, guy who doesn't care about stats.  The guy is going to be a punching back, so a little bit of humility is a good thing.  The stat sheet is a very small factor when looking at a DT like that.  

 

That said, and I'd like to clarify that I am not on one side or the other of some sort of a Vea vs Payne conversation.  Each of them appear to be very good football players, and Vea looks like he could be special.  My whole point originally was that someone quoted a tweet about how Payne only had 1 sack and minimal TFLs and that is not truly how I want a DT to be gauged.  It's an empty argument that Payne is somehow an inferior talent to whatever metric because he didnt have gawdy stats at Bama.  That Payne's job wasn't one that was going to flash on film, or make people jump up out of their seats.

 

Look at a swat team, there are multiple team members, some of which are athletic, sharpshooting point men.   Payne is the guy who walks up to the door with a battering ram and makes the hole.  That guy, if things are executed correctly, is the last guy in and never even has to pull a trigger.