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2018 Comprehensive NFL Draft Thread

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18 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Josh Norris Retweeted Billy Marshall

Makes a lot of sense at No. 13

Josh Norris added,

Billy Marshall @BillyM_91
Washington sent Bruce Allen and Doug Williams to Baton Rouge for LSU's pro day. Brilliant fit for Guice
0 replies1 retweet0 likes
 

Yes and I think Guice is the 2nd best RB in the draft and then there's the rest.  Vea at #13, then try a trade down or draft Guice.

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14 minutes ago, RWJ said:

Yes and I think Guice is the 2nd best RB in the draft and then there's the rest.  Vea at #13, then try a trade down or draft Guice.

 

At this point for me at 13 if they fall:

1. Fitzpatrick

2. Guice

3. James

4. Ward

5. Vea

 

Toughest choice for me would be we get lucky with Fitzpatrick falling to 13 versus a trade down and getting Guice. 

 

 

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17 minutes ago, RWJ said:

Yes and I think Guice is the 2nd best RB in the draft and then there's the rest.  Vea at #13, then try a trade down or draft Guice.

 

I'd take Guice over Vea six ways to Sunday. IMO a potential game changing RB would have a much bigger single impact on our team than one more DL guy, even if Vea ends up being very good (and IMO that's still a big if, but that's just an opinion issue regarding Vea).

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2 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

At this point for me at 13 if they fall:

1. Fitzpatrick

2. Guice

3. James

4. Ward

5. Vea

 

Toughest choice for me would be we get lucky with Fitzpatrick falling to 13 versus a trade down and getting Guice. 

 

 

There's a chance the only one that makes it to us is Guice.  Then do you trade down with AZ (two spots, if Jackson is available) and hope that Guice is there at #15.  It's going to be interesting come draft night. :)

1 minute ago, mistertim said:

 

I'd take Guice over Vea six ways to Sunday. IMO a potential game changing RB would have a much bigger single impact on our team than one more DL guy, even if Vea ends up being very good (and IMO that's still a big if, but that's just an opinion issue regarding Vea).

We could have our cake and eat it too if the Skins signed Hankins before the draft then draft Guice at #13.  I agree with your assessments on Guice too. :) 

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3 minutes ago, RWJ said:

There's a chance the only one that makes it to us is Guice.  Then do you trade down with AZ (two spots, if Jackson is available) and hope that Guice is there at #15.  It's going to be interesting come draft night. :)

We could have our cake and eat it too if the Skins signed Hankins before the draft then draft Guice at #13.  I agree with your assessments on Guice too. :) 

 

I wouldn't try to get cute like that unless we got some sort of crazy offer we just couldn't refuse. You have a guy you love where you are, draft him. IMO you only trade back if you have a few guys who you'd be equally happy to draft at your new spot so you can basically be almost 100% that at least one of them will be there. Again, unless you get some huge offer that is almost impossible to pass up and moving back a couple spaces is unlikely to net us that.

 

And yeah, I'd love if we got Hankins...that would help out a lot. If not draft a DL guy like Phillips in the 2nd if he's still there.

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1 minute ago, mistertim said:

And yeah, I'd love if we got Hankins...that would help out a lot. If not draft a DL guy like Phillips in the 2nd if he's still there.

You can sit back breath easy and get Guice at #13.  But trading back only two spots could very well net you Guice as well.  We're only talking from #13 to #15 and getting AZ's 3rd round draft choice we lost in the trade to get Smith.

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11 minutes ago, RWJ said:

There's a chance the only one that makes it to us is Guice.  Then do you trade down with AZ (two spots, if Jackson is available) and hope that Guice is there at #15.  It's going to be interesting come draft night. :)

 

 

Wonder about SD at 17 if they want to leapfrog over Arizona for L. Jackson.

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Just now, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Wonder about SD at 17 if they want to leapfrog over Arizona for L. Jackson.

They may but Guice might be gone by then.  If you can get a bidding war going with AZ and other teams SD, PITT, NO, NE and take what AZ wants to give us we might do quite well with compensation and only be moving down 2 spots and more than likely secure Guice.  If GB at #13 wanted Guice then we'd have to take Guice at #13.  Key in this that would simplify is Skins signing Hankins.

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While I'd prefer going RB in round 2, if we feel like Guice can be a 20 carry a game, 1200+ yard 10 TD franchise back, you take him at 13.

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I posted this elsewhere and I've noticed that periodically I've heard references to Michel's fumble history, I wanted to just add these details for some context:

 

Michel's ball security has two caveats.

 

#1 Vegas views turnovers, and especially fumbles as a result of "randomness," rather than a player specific issue that should be used as a data point in odds making as well as betting by the syndicates and individual big players. 

 

#2 Fumble History

 

2014: 8 Games, 73 touches and 2 Fumbles: 2.7%

2015: 13 Games, 246 touches and 5 Fumbles: 2.0%

2016: 12 Games and 174 touches and 3 Fumbles: 1.7%

2017: 14 Games and 165 touches and 2 Fumbles: 1.2%

 

Total: 47 Games and 658 touches and 12 Fumbles: 1.2%

 

Notice how the rate declines over time. 

 

 

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5 hours ago, UK SKINS FAN '74 said:

Wadley on day 3, also like Boettger as a day 3 late pick. Add in Josh Jackson and that Iowa drafted.

 

Got to think we we are hoping to move back from 13 and/or jump up from 44.

 

Ugh. I don't get it. We have Thompson to do what he does and Thompson is more athletic too. He doesn't have the size/BMI to be an every down back. He's inferior to Thompson as a satellite back so I don't really get the interest.

 

However in the interest of fair mindedness I'll add that his dominator score (basically market share of the Iowa offense) would have made him tops in the 2017 class. His production numbers weren't quite at that level in '17, but they were good. Then of course he had the terrible combine and combine data is exceedingly closely connected to future success, though of course, not deterministic, just probabilistic. 

 

If nothing else he adds depth when we let Thompson go, I guess there's that, I just don't understand the interest other than the market share #'s. 

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3 hours ago, mistertim said:

 

Disagree with your belief, here. Chubb, Penny, and Michel were not in conversations after the 2016 season about who would be the top drafted RB in the 2018 draft against Barkley. Guice was. If it wasn't for him basically playing injured for the whole 2017 season, I believe there would be a big debate right now about Barkley vs Guice in this draft as to who the top RB is and we likely wouldn't even have a shot at him, so in a sense I think we're lucky that he played the whole 2017 season banged up. I'd be quite happy if they pick him at 13, especially assuming that his nagging injury is now behind him. I think Chubb, Michel, Penny are in a tier below Barkley and Guice. But to each their own.

 

No there wouldn't. 

 

I LOVE GUICE.

 

I do. I absolutely love him.

 

He's not Barkley, period, To suggest as much is pretty much insane.

 

Barkley fits snugly into the once a decade talents, as in:

1970's: Walter Payton

1980's: Eric Dickerson

1990's: Barry Sanders, Emmit Smith and Marshall Faulk

2000's: Adrian Peterson

2010's: Gurley and Zeke right now, Barkley probably tomorrow

 

Anyway just throwing that against the wall, I'm sure I'm forgetting people.

 

Speed Score:

Barkley: 99th Percentile

Guice:97th Percentile

 

Burst Score: 

Barkley: 97th Percentile

Guice: 90th Percentile

 

Bench Press:

Barkley: 96th Percentile

Guice: 13th Percentile

 

Dominator Score:

Barkley: 70th Percentile

Guice: 70th Percentile

 

SPARQ-x:

Barkley:99th Percentile

Guice: Data unavailable

 

Barkley's got him beat across the board.Not to suggest that Guice isn't great, look at those #''s, other than the bizarre bench press, it's all amazing. Guice is fantastic.

 

In terms of Penny, and Michel, I would agree, as much as I love Penny, and like Michel, Guice's profile is deserving of more plaudits which is why he's my #2 RB, and atop tier 2. Chubb is a bit different. If Chubb is all the way back, and the combine made it look like he's close if not there, then he's even more impressive than Guice across some aspects of their profiles. Chubb's the only guy I think is close to Guice in terms of #2 overall, I just don't quite have him there, but that's also why I'm fine with dealing down and getting Chubb instead, or yes even Penny.

 

If I were to put confidence #'s down for each prospect (just inventing this stupid metric as I write it). I'd say my confidence level in each prospect:

 

1. Barkley: 99% confidence that he hit's, 95% confident that he's elite.

2. Guice: 90% confident that he a hits, 75-80% sure that he's elite. 

3. Chubb: 75% confident that he hits. 55% sure that he's elite.

4. Penny: 70% confident that he hits. 40-50% sure that he's elite. 

5. Michel: 55-60% confident the hits. 40-45% sure that he's elite. 

6. Freeman: 35-40% confident that he hits. 20-30% sure that he's elite. 

 

 

I don't know if that's well thought out, but it looks reasonable other than maybe Penny who I'm probably more 40% confident to 45%. Not sure. 

 

So maybe that gives a clearer picture of how I see them. 

 

I think it makes more sense to either get the Defensive player if he's there, or trade down if he's not, and get the best RB still available 5-15 slots down, or trade up from our 2nd round slot. We get more value that way with our picks and our more likely to add two superlative talents, rather than one, and we maximize our cap space too. 

 

Another poster mentioned RB's and cap #'s and he is right and it's a compelling argument (it also can be expanded to FA, where it makes a lot more sense to go after FA interior lineman than say, WR's, because they hit far more often and are more value in terms of cap #). You want to use your cap intelligently, maximizing value positionally because if you do you can improve your team far more easily and consistently than if you do the slap dash model so many others do like Gettleman.

 

As for injuries for Guice in '17, the same thing applies to Chubb. Before his catastrophic knee injury in '15, he was viewed as the #1 back in the '17 class, and would have easily been #2 and a contender for #1 in this class. But he blew up his knee and that killed that dream. As for Penny, he shared the backfield with Pumphrey, breakout age is a HUGE deal to me, but he was giving a share of the backfield to one of the most, perhaps the most productive back ever at SDSU (where Faulk went to school), and Penny then blew his production out of the water this year. 

 

Michel, I think you have more of a case against. Michel was snugly in that 5th-10th RB in the class area in 2016, and 2017 until November/December/January when he started rocketing up boards because he shared a backfield with a Chubb still recovering from injury. 

 

As for Guice versus Barkley, healthy or not, Barkley was rated ahead of Guice by pretty much everyone in 2016 and 2017. Guice was the #2 in this class period from the moment Chubb blew out his knee though, so I agree on that, and he never surrendered that ranking. Only people who even toss out Guice ahead of Barkley are people who keep mentioning the run through contact b.s., which for me, is as worthless an argument as youtube clips of guys racing into the open field off tackle, untouched for multiple 50+ yard TD's and even worse in that I do not like it when RB's do that. That gets your injured and shortens your career. I like that he's tough, and sure, it would pay off by tiring out defenses, but it also depletes the value of him as an asset, and increases the likelihood that he will get hurt yet again. When you can't avoid the contact, sure, punish the guy trying to punish you, but otherwise, avoid the hits when possible because we need "you" so to speak. Guice being out for five weeks, or nursing busted ribs or an ankle and forcing us to use Kelley or Perine isn't helping anyone, I'd much rather him avoid tackles, stay healthy, and keep Kelley and Perine's butt's firmly on the bench where they belong. 

6 hours ago, UK SKINS FAN '74 said:

 

Got to remember CT25 is a major part of our offense too.

 

I hope the Broncos dump CJ Anderson and we go for him.

 

Yuck. Just don't see it with him. Admire how much he's been able to make out of a pedestrian profile and college career, but he's 27. Would rather have someone else sign him. He's also not much better than Perine in terms of profile. 

4 hours ago, skinny21 said:

This is a fair concern, but using breakout age for him is tricky... he didn’t walk on until he was 21 (22 when the season started) because of his time playing minor league baseball.  So he broke out in his 2nd season.  Still somewhat raw, but he’s a very solid player already.  

Yeah, they seem to be putting serious work in planning for a trade back... which is good.  

Love CT too, but as you say, there are some concerns there.  Love how he sets up his blockers.  I do think we could use a guy to develop behind him (and depth, though we do have some interesting options there), and it would help to add some more elusiveness/speed.  Wonder if we find a guy that could also return kicks.  

 

Thanks! that provides a great deal of elucidation. Appreciate it. 

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3 hours ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

I think there's a really, really sneaky chance that if Barkley goes 4-6 that the Bucs take Guice at #7. I think there's enough smoke there right now to Guice NOT falling. I think teams are smart. They see what he did in 2016 and what he's capable of and even what he did in 2017 injured and running into stacked boxes. Combine that with the fact that recent trends of rookie RBs coming in and changing the makeup of teams, and I can easily see the argument for it. All you have to do is look at Fournette-Kamara-Hunt from last year.

 

And let's not forget that he had a pretty damn good combine. He ran a 4.48 after all ... faster than Michel/Penny, etc.

 

And if these rumors are true about Bruce being on the hot seat, he might want to make a big push for an impact player, which for once might benefit us by taking Guice at 13. I do think that if he's there you take him. Trading back risks someone like Baltimore coming to their senses and taking him. I don't think he falls past 20.

 

Guice wasn't faster than Penny. Penny ran a 4.46. Not a huge difference, both were in the 90's in terms of percentile as a size adjusted RB score, I believe Penny was 92nd Percentile and Guice was 90th. 

 

If Guice went 7th, that would just about guarantee a stud D landing with us, I hope the team is building trade up scenario's from 44 to get the RB we want if we go D at #13 (which is definitely what I'd do unless a stud QB fell to us (not happening)). 

 

 

 

2 hours ago, HigSkin said:

I think someone was asking about this and one D coaches opinion...

 

 

 

Heard a couple of other guys mention the same, that he has pass rush chops, and isn't just a run stuffer. 

 

 

2 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Josh Norris Retweeted Billy Marshall

Makes a lot of sense at No. 13

Josh Norris added,

Billy Marshall @BillyM_91
Washington sent Bruce Allen and Doug Williams to Baton Rouge for LSU's pro day. Brilliant fit for Guice
0 replies1 retweet0 likes
 

 

I kept reading this would be televised on the SEC channel but all I see is some stupid baseball game. Suppose I'll just hope they post it to youtube. 

 

 

 

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2 hours ago, mistertim said:

 

I'd take Guice over Vea six ways to Sunday. IMO a potential game changing RB would have a much bigger single impact on our team than one more DL guy, even if Vea ends up being very good (and IMO that's still a big if, but that's just an opinion issue regarding Vea).

In terms of CAP dollars, and draft capital, elite DT's are significantly more costly than elite RB's, elite RB's on a second contract and third contract get progressively cheaper over time once they hit and begin to descend from their peak age (24-27). 

 

Just not a great use of your cap. I understand what you mean. Guice for the offense would be like Hunt in KC, he'd radically change everything. But, RB's are cheap as hell in FA, and the draft, last year Hunt, Kamara and Aaron Jones could be had in the third round and sixth round respectively. This year you'll be able to get Chubb, Michel, and Penny after round 1 (maybe not for Chubb actually), smaller cap hit, plus you get a much more talented defensive player at 13 compared to 42. 

 

When you're building an entire team you need to use your cap resources well, I don't think Guice is doing that, remember we're building an entire team. Even worse, this team is not contending now, so as we draft a RB with a short term production horizon before they get their second contract, and then enter their decline during it, we will be wasting a good couple of Guice's prime years. 

 

I just don't see the value in doing that. Also worth mentioning that the 2015 RB class will be free agents in 2019 (except for those that get signed to extensions early), so there are a lot of routes to RB development and improvement on the roster. We could fix the offense simply by drafting one this year after round 1, signing one in the '19 offseason if he pulls a Perine, and using the '19 draft to address WR issues considering it's supposed to be the best WR draft since 2014. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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18 minutes ago, The Consigliere said:

Barkley fits snugly into the once a decade talents, as in:

1970's: Walter Payton

1980's: Eric Dickerson

1990's: Barry Sanders, Emmit Smith and Marshall Faulk

2000's: Adrian Peterson

2010's: Gurley and Zeke right now, Barkley probably tomorrow

 

Anyway just throwing that against the wall, I'm sure I'm forgetting people.

 

I don't think Faulk really became elite until later in his career.  His best years were in the early 2000's.  Hmm, looking it up, he went to St. Louis in 1999 and that's when his dominance started.

 

P.S.  I didn't quote it, but agree that instantly having one of the more expensive RB contracts isn't that appealing.  I like Guice, but I worry about his injury history.  Will he get back to fully healthy?  When might he?  Trade down is the dream scenario.

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2 hours ago, RWJ said:

They may but Guice might be gone by then.  If you can get a bidding war going with AZ and other teams SD, PITT, NO, NE and take what AZ wants to give us we might do quite well with compensation and only be moving down 2 spots and more than likely secure Guice.  If GB at #13 wanted Guice then we'd have to take Guice at #13.  Key in this that would simplify is Skins signing Hankins.

 

For me I love Guice, that was the guy I touted hard very early in the process months back.  Having said that, if they trade down and pick up a third, I'd risk it. 

 Ed Lova  ? Retweeted

Bruce Allen loves Guice look at his face ????

DZ81ZMCV4AAFNC6.jpg
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1 hour ago, The Consigliere said:

Heard a couple of other guys mention the same, that he has pass rush chops, and isn't just a run stuffer. 

 

 

After watching many game cutups of Vae, I would say this: he can rush the passer, but he doesn't really have pass rush chops. He is pretty much a pure bull rusher who uses his size. In multiple game cutups I only saw him do anything else a few times. Once he tried a spin move and it just didn't work out well for him (but I guess an A for effort I suppose). Couple of times I saw him try a decent rip move. But he really doesn't have much in the way of polished pass rushing moves. He just uses his size and bull rushes.

 

Two issues I saw with his bull rush (and it was the same if he was just trying to penetrate into the backfield to make a play, not necessarily rush the passer). One is that many times he did it while being way too upright...there were some times I swear he literally stood almost straight up right out of his stance and just ran at the opposing blocker(s). In college with his size that still worked fine against his competition many times. In the NFL he'll get stood up and out leveraged by technique savvy interior OL guys and it simply won't work. He's going to have to refine his leverage and make it consistent to be a great NFL DL.

 

The second is that he also had a tendency to dip his shoulder into blockers and just try to plow his way through that way instead of using his hands. Now, that's fine when it's done as part of an actual pass rush move and is in addition to or after the use of his hands, like with a club and rip or something, but he doesn't do that. He just charges and lowers his shoulder as if he's trying to lay the wood on a ball carrier. Again, it's something he can get away with in college because his opponents most often don't have sufficient size and technique to handle it. But in the NFL that **** will get him pancaked with a quickness as he'll be going up against guys who understand leverage and technique.

 

Vea is an impressive specimen as far as how agile and athletic he is for such a big guy, but (purely IMO, obviously) he has some serious technique flaws he needs to work on, since up until now he has relied almost exclusively on his size. His size will help him in the NFL but it won't cover up those technique issues. If he can fix those and become more consistent in his effort from play to play (hopefully that is just a conditioning issue and not an attitude or laziness issue) then he can be a dominant force in the NFL. If he can't, he'll just be a huge dude who can plug holes sometimes but isn't any sort of game changer.

Edited by mistertim
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Jay Gruden was on Cooley's radio show today.  When asked if there are some guys they're aiming at, he said instead there are 20 or so guys they'd be happy taking with their pick.  If that's true, it sounds like they think the talent level is a lot more even throughout the first.  That and/or they want to trade back as they still think value is great at pick #20 or #25 as it is at pick #13.

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Meh I think Gruden is blowing smoke. I see almost no way a team's big board would essentially have 20 names in parallel next to their pick with happy face stickers next to all of them.

 

Did he say "at 13" or "with our pick"? Because the latter could include trades. If he's including those scenarios then I could believe they have up to 20 guys lined up who they'd take at various spots depending on potential trade backs.

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@mistertim I haven't been able to watch Tim Settle yet.  Do you think he's a better value than Vea if we draft him in the 2nd?  I'll have to watch him this weekend, but I found this tweet interesting. 

 

 

 

#JustSignHankins

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Vea may be a 1st rounder by athletic potential, but production wise he's a 2nd rounder or worse, same with Payne.

Settle in the 2nd would undoubtedly be a better value. Payne will fall into the 2nd

 

Look at it this way, if Vea didn't dominate in college where he was that much bigger and stronger, what are the odds he will do so in the NFL?

Not very good I'd wager.

Edited by crabbypatty
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John Keim Retweeted NFL

Bruce Allen did indeed have his dinner with Guice last night.

Those who haven't watched Tim Settle YT video need to do so.  IF we came out of the draft in the 1st two rounds with Guice at #13 and Settle at #44 we've done excellent, IMO.  Settle reminds me of Warren Sapp.  He might not have tested that great at the Combine but watch his game tape.  It says all you need to see!

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33 minutes ago, HTTRDynasty said:

@mistertim I haven't been able to watch Tim Settle yet.  Do you think he's a better value than Vea if we draft him in the 2nd?  I'll have to watch him this weekend, but I found this tweet interesting. 

 

 

 

#JustSignHankins

 

I can't say much about Settle since I haven't watched cutups of him yet (highlights are fun but not very instructive an often misleading). His production is interesting but the only troubling part is that he really only had one year of standout production. Now, that could just be because he was raw and came into his game. I'd be intrigued but cautious. Will have to watch some film of him.

 

That article pretty much echoes my sentiments about 3 prospects I've talked about multiple times here: Vea, Payne, and Phillips. In their analysis Vea is in a somewhat scary "hit or miss" territory, Payne is almost at the very bottom of the barrel (his college production was terrible), and Phillips could be an absolute steal.

 

Still not sure why Payne gets so much hype...probably the bowl game performance. I think Vea has a chance to be dominant if he can fix his technique issues and be consistent with his effort. I think Payne has almost no chance of being anything other than a decent rotational body. If we pick him at 13, I'll probably start drinking hard liquor immediately. Both of them are graded out by many as easy 1st rounders but then you have Harrison Phillips who has production that puts him in some really nice company on their charts, but who isn't really seen as more than maybe a day 2 pick.

 

I've watched cutups of Harrison Phillips and the guy is seriously impressive to me. He's a very good, but not elite athlete, so he doesn't have some of the backside chase speed or things like that but his technique is really really good. Saw him play 0 though 5 tech roles and seems almost equally adept at them all. Shows he can split double teams in multiple ways, excellent pass rush chops...swim move is devastating. His use of his hands and leverage is outstanding and it makes sense once I found out that he was also a state champion wrestler. I was a wrestler and hand usage, balance and leverage is basically everything there. I'd be ecstatic if we got him in the 2nd.

Edited by mistertim
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6 minutes ago, UK SKINS FAN '74 said:

Based on that picture the love affair with Guice is in full flow...

 

Maybe that was taken right after Allen asked him if he liked men.

 

And then winked.

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