2018 Comprehensive NFL Draft Thread

[Going Commando]

7 hours ago, LaRonDontLikeUgly said:

In my heart of hearts, Moore and Chark are the only guys worthy of a 1st round pick and it shouldn't be until the 20's.

 

This is a good post, and I agree with your criticism of Ridley's play strength.  It's borderline, and he's going to have to get stronger and learn to beat the press to become a truly versatile outside NFL receiver.  But plenty of skinny guys with low play strength are still eating while playing outside in the NFL right now: Odell Beckam Jr, Ty Hilton, Antonio Brown, DeSean Jackson, etc.  And you can design and call formations to help a stud WR beat the press.  Ridley playing off the line in trips and 2x2s is a terror.  I don't agree at all that he's trash.  He's got so many skills that are going to translate and he should be productive early in his career.  I think his QB play was trash.  If he'd gone to a school with a good QB and good passing game I think he would have put up a ton of yards and he'd be a no-brainer first rounder.

 

I just don't see Moore's athleticism showing up on the field except when he's running with it in space.  And it's not just 9 routes that he can't run, he doesn't get open on anything more than 10-12 yards down the field.  And it's not like he can beat a press where Ridley can't.  Moore is just as lost against it and he's not much stronger than Ridley despite being bulkier.

 

WR is a tough position, full of fine skills and the necessity to make nuanced adjustments and precision movements.  Moore's so far behind a guy like Ridley in most of these skills that I don't see him ever having a comparable level of mastery.

[RandyHolt]

I saw some mock with us taking a corner at 13OA.   I think our first should go to make Smith successful here. Be it an OL, all down back, TE.... definitely not a fan of taking a corner to counter losing Fuller, and chasing our tail.  Trade down if we are eyeballing a corner, for I feel like corners are victims of scheme and are often not used to their strengths. Rarely will a DC shape his D around a corner. If he is the missing piece, maybe. But I am not buying it as we approach a decade of running a 3-4 without a proper NT. Good corners become bad corners without a proper DL. Alex is no spring chicken so lets get him the pieces he needs to succeed, and pronto. Don't screw this up Bruce!

[The Consigliere]

3 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Breakdown of big plays, and lost of yards

 

http://www.profootballweekly.com/lists/2018/03/18/8906f93b8cc0419ab8128df57dd1e0f2/index.xml?page=1

Sony Michel, Georgia

21 carries over 15 yards (13.5%)

14 carries over 20 yards (8.97%)

7 carries that lost yardage (4.49%)

If a team is looking for the next game-breaking running back in the mold of Alvin Kamara, look no further than Sony Michel from Georgia. No player in the class had a higher percentage of runs of at least 15 yards (13.5 percent) than Michel. Aside from his ridiculous efficiency, Michel also was able to limit his number of negative runs to just seven. In the Bulldogs' last seven games of the 2017 season, Michel had just one carry that lost yardage. In comparison, his running mate Nick Chubb had 13.

Michel doesn’t have elite speed or a ton of experience in the passing game, but his balance, vision and quickness allow him to break off big gains with ease. After the success of Kamara last season, don’t be surprised if Michel sneaks his way into the bottom of the first round. He is the best “satellite back” in the class and is exactly the type of player that NFL teams are going to love.

 

Ronald Jones, USC

24 carries over 15 yards (9.20%)

16 carries over 20 yards (6.13%)

18 carries that lost yardage (6.89%)

One player who will create a lot of discussion over the next several weeks is Ronald Jones of USC. At just 5-foot-11, 205 pounds, Jones doesn’t have the prototypical size to be an elite every-down back in the NFL. Instead, he will likely have to be a part of a committee in which he is expected to provide the speed and big plays rather consistently. However, that may be easier said than done.

Jones broke off a respectable amount of runs of over 15 yards (especially in the second half of the season when he had 19 runs of at least 15 yards in the team’s final eight games), but that doesn’t quite tell the whole story. Jones saw, on average, just 6.42 defenders in the box. The reason for the relatively low number is that quarterback Sam Darnold was so good that teams were forced to back off the run. Although Jones took advantage of light boxes, that may not be the case in the NFL. With Jones’ limited receiving ability and underwhelming size, there will likely be similar types of running backs available in later rounds.

 

Derrius Guice, LSU

13 carries of over 15 yards (5.49%)

9 carries of over 20 yards (3.80%)

12 carries that lost yardage (5.06%)

Not surprisingly, Derrius Guice struggled to create big plays in LSU’s archaic offense. Guice averaged 7.25 defenders in the box in 2017, more than any other running back in the class. With his team’s poor QB play and subpar offensive line, Guice rarely saw enough daylight to make defenses pay. Although it’s fair to be concerned about Guice’s limited big-play production, his ability to avoid negative plays was extremely impressive. Guice lost yardage on just 12 runs this year, most of which were just one-yard losses.

Fortunately for Guice, teams won’t be drafting him for his speed. Instead, they will be selecting him to the be their “hammer,” similarly to what the Dallas Cowboys did with Ezekiel Elliott and the Jacksonville Jaguars did with Leonard Fournette. Guice will do just fine in the NFL, even if he doesn't create big chunk plays.

 

Interesting #'s. Is this purely from 2017? We know Guice played hurt throughout '17, so that definitely impacted things for him, if this is just '17 #'s I'd be inclined to toss it out for that reason. 

 

 

[The Consigliere]

8 hours ago, LaRonDontLikeUgly said:

 

Man, I think you are one the best drafthead-scouts on this PLANET who doesn't make a living off of it (Skins might be better off if you did)- but I can't disagree with you more on your evaluations on DJ vs. Ridley.

First off, Garcon was absolutely an 'elite' athlete coming out of college (out-repped Ridley by 5 on bench, out-broad-jumped him by 15 inches, out vertical-jumped by 5 inches, faster shuttle, etc) and if you look at DJ Moore's measurables he out-ran and out-jumped both of them.

 

Aside from all of that, I had spent a couple of days watching game tape on the "top" WRs from this draft and ONLY came away impressed by Moore -- this is back when Mayock didn't have him in his Top 6.  (Now he's got him at 2.)  I agree 100% that the major flaws are jump-balls and 9 vertical routes.  However, the way he runs with the ball in his hands reminds me a bit of Corey Coleman (CC being more skilled in this area, but comparable) and I don't think it's fair to say he only excels at catches that are coming to back to the QB-- i think thats more of an indictment on UMD's offensive scheme.  He also just seems to play very 'smart' football from all angles.

 

Ridley on the other hand is pure trash to me.  The one positive thing that Chad Ochocino did for the NFL is that he forced defensive coordinators to start drafting bigger/meaner corners-- CJ's career floundered not because his legs gave out, but because teams stopped letting a little guy try to play like a big one.  I look at Ridley as a big fish in a small pond and could run down the entire list of the problems I have with this entire WR class as a whole. (Full disclosure, have not watched tape on guys like St. Brown, Pettis, Calloway)

 

In my heart of hearts, Moore and Chark are the only guys worthy of a 1st round pick and it shouldn't be until the 20's.

 

 

 

Granted this is second hand, but I heard that at this point, w/all the work he has to do, Mayock isn't a film grinder like he used to be, and relies more on conversations with personel men to get his top 5's in the leade up to the draft. This is part of the reason his top 5's change so much at the combine, they change w/the perceptions of scouts changing once the information comes in. 

 

Ridley being pure trash sounds a bit odd to me. I expect him to be successful at the next level, a pure, studied technician, he'll be fine. I just think he's going to be an adequate guy rather than anything special. In terms of production, I imagine we'd get #'s somewhat similar to Maclin  (healthy version) and TJ Housmanzadeh. I think he's a safe pick (other than the size angle which is alarming), and GM's don't like to take risks unless they have secure positions. 

[HigSkin]

Interesting...

 

 

[PlayAction]

33 minutes ago, RandyHolt said:

I saw some mock with us taking a corner at 13OA.   I think our first should go to make Smith successful here. Be it an OL, all down back, TE.... definitely not a fan of taking a corner to counter losing Fuller, and chasing our tail.  Trade down if we are eyeballing a corner, for I feel like corners are victims of scheme and are often not used to their strengths. 

 

If the Skins pick a slot corner to replace Fuller then essentially Smith would have cost the team the first and third round picks in this draft.  That would suck.  On the other hand, the Skins may be looking to move on from Josh Norman's contract in another year.  Then we would be thankful if they were able to pick up a top talent CB this year.

 

Are you willing to pass over maybe 10 BPA choices to get OL?  TEs seem to have slipped into the 2nd round so that would be even a greater reach.  I understand wanting to focus on positions of need with the hope of trading down.  I'm just not confident that there will be a team willing to give up draft picks for the #13 pick.  I don't think it makes sense to accept any offer to trade down.  For example, why pass on 10 BPA players for the possibility of getting your OL plus a fourth round graded player?  I'm not saying that would be the offer but some fans seem to be willing to take anything.    

[ShredSkins]

21 minutes ago, HigSkin said:

Interesting...

 

 

Sounds like there is a team wanting him to drop....oh I'd say upper mid second roundish.

[skinny21]

12 minutes ago, PlayAction said:

 

If the Skins pick a slot corner to replace Fuller then essentially Smith would have cost the team the first and third round picks in this draft.  That would suck.  On the other hand, the Skins may be looking to move on from Josh Norman's contract in another year.  Then we would be thankful if they were able to pick up a top talent CB this year.

 

Are you willing to pass over maybe 10 BPA choices to get OL?  TEs seem to have slipped into the 2nd round so that would be even a greater reach.  I understand wanting to focus on positions of need with the hope of trading down.  I'm just not confident that there will be a team willing to give up draft picks for the #13 pick.  I don't think it makes sense to accept any offer to trade down.  For example, why pass on 10 BPA players for the possibility of getting your OL plus a fourth round graded player?  I'm not saying that would be the offer but some fans seem to be willing to take anything.    

I agree with some of this and (possibly) disagree with some.  

 

Don’t see a TE really worth it, at 13, or at 23.  I’ve been a big proponent of drafting one this year, but not earlier than the 3rd (4th-5th is my preference).

 

Agree about corner.  Maybe a 1st round corner doesn’t play much this year (or maybe they do), but it’s a great way to prepare for trading Norman next year.  

 

If we do move down 10 spots, it better be for more than a 4th... though I did see you said ‘4th round graded player’, which is interesting.  

 

I have also said I’m ok moving down and not getting trade chart value, but I’m thinking more like a 3rd or better to move 10 spots.  I could see moving back a few/several, landing a 4th, and then doing it again.  Of course, depending on how we tier the players, just trading back a handful of spots could allow us to draft a guy in the same tier and recoup a pick.  

 

20s is a really good spot for a back, or we could draft a different position and maybe move up in the 2nd.  Lot of enticing prospects that fit our needs in the late 1st-mid 2nd - DL, RB, and OL especially.  

If certain players fall - Smith, Nelson, Fitzpatrick and James are the big ones - I’m happy to stay where we are.  

 

A big part of all of this is whether we’re in win-now mode.  If we wind up with a blue chip player (not at a position of need), but then can’t/don’t address DL/G/back until the 4th or later, that could be a short term failure.  If we go with Hughes or Jackson at corner and miss out on needed help in the 2nd, that’s even worse.  

 

When I’m talking about missing out in the 2nd, I’m thinking if Wynn, Price and Hernandez are gone, as are the top backs and DL like Vea/Payne/Phillips, etc.  

[Darth Tater]

I really don't understand why people seem to want the RB who can take it to the house.  It is nice to have but I would really prefer a RB who consistently gets you 4-5 yards, is a good blocker and a decent receiver than a back that gets you a couple of big runs and that is it. True, my favorite running game we've had cam in 1990 when our longest run from scrimmage was a 26 yarder by Monk.  Byner got 1200 plus with only about 4 +20 yarders (longest was 22) and averaged over 4.1 ypc with 6 TDs, Under Joe Gibbs, the first time around, we only had a handful of runs over 40 by RBs.  From 1969 to 1972, there is no back I would trade Larry Brown for but he only had two carries for 50+ yards but none were better at blocking and receiving, even when he really could no longer run the ball from scrimmage.  So I'm spoiled.  In a game against Detroit in 1997, Sanders put up 105 on us in just 15 carries including a 51 yarder but only 4 more that got 5+ yards (one coming in junk time).

 

I'll take the guy who rarely gets negative yards over anything else.

[Skinsinparadise]

4 hours ago, UK SKINS FAN '74 said:

 

I don't think we can take that risk. Not sure I want to. We need to invest in a top back via the draft,

 

I am the same guy who said I wouldn't even hate them taking a Rb at 13 so yeah I am on board with this point.

[The Consigliere]

I have Guice, and Chubb super close, so for me, I'd want to trade down a bit, into the 20's, then pull the trigger, the key is to pick ahead of around slot 28, don't let teams with high 2nd rounders jump in front of us, and definitely pick ahead of them.

 

Hoping we get Guice or Chubb, fearing we get Michel or Jones instead. 

[Skinsinparadise]

1 hour ago, The Consigliere said:

 

Interesting #'s. Is this purely from 2017? We know Guice played hurt throughout '17, so that definitely impacted things for him, if this is just '17 #'s I'd be inclined to toss it out for that reason. 

 

 

 

I believe its 2017.  The full article is worth a look since they delve into a number of RBs I just didn't want to clutter my post with too much text.  Interesting about the 7.25 defenders Guice faced in the box.  Makes sense since LSU had no passing game.  R. Jones facing 6.42 defenders because of Darnold. 

 

Cliff notes:

 

Percentage runs over 15 yards

Michel 13.5%

Penny 12.11%

Chubb 10.8%

Jones 9.20%

Freeman 9.02%

Kelly 6.88%

K. Johnson 5.96%

Guice 5.49%

 

 

Best at Avoiding Lost Yardage

Michel 4.49%

Freeman 4.51%

Guice 5.06%

R. Jones 6.89%

Penny 7.27%

K. Johnson 7.72%

Chubb 9.87%

Kelly 12.7%

[Dark Acre]

1 hour ago, Darth Tater said:

Under Joe Gibbs, the first time around, we only had a handful of runs over 40 by RBs.

If I recall correctly, one of those was Riggins going 43 yards.

 

(My favorite Riggo run was about 75 yards against Dallas in The Worst Game a 50-ish+ Year Old Skins Fan Has Ever Seen (1979).  What was amazing was that he ran back across the field and then outsprinted DBs, nearly getting caught but maintaining his balance to the end zone.  Man, that team would've won the SB had it just held on.)

[The Consigliere]

I think Graham Barfield built a metric around something similar, need to dig into that myself. 

[actorguy1]

Good news!

[Skinsinparadise]

1.  
2. Chris Russell‏ @Russellmania621 5m5 minutes ago

   More

   Chris Russell Retweeted Adam Schefter

   This is big. Lot of people liked him better than Vita Vea pre-combine heart scare. #Redskins

   Chris Russell added,

   Adam SchefterVerified account @AdamSchefter

   Michigan’s potential first-round pick Mo Hurst has met with cardiologists at University of Michigan and Harvard, and they have cleared him to resume playing football, per league source. Hurst will do a full workout at Michigan's pro day on Friday.

    

[clskinsfan]

2 hours ago, Darth Tater said:

I really don't understand why people seem to want the RB who can take it to the house.  It is nice to have but I would really prefer a RB who consistently gets you 4-5 yards, is a good blocker and a decent receiver than a back that gets you a couple of big runs and that is it. True, my favorite running game we've had cam in 1990 when our longest run from scrimmage was a 26 yarder by Monk.  Byner got 1200 plus with only about 4 +20 yarders (longest was 22) and averaged over 4.1 ypc with 6 TDs, Under Joe Gibbs, the first time around, we only had a handful of runs over 40 by RBs.  From 1969 to 1972, there is no back I would trade Larry Brown for but he only had two carries for 50+ yards but none were better at blocking and receiving, even when he really could no longer run the ball from scrimmage.  So I'm spoiled.  In a game against Detroit in 1997, Sanders put up 105 on us in just 15 carries including a 51 yarder but only 4 more that got 5+ yards (one coming in junk time).

 

I'll take the guy who rarely gets negative yards over anything else.

 

Nice post. And the guys that do both are Hall of Famers. And those guys have existed int he past and I think there is one in this draft as well. OJ, Payton, Jim Brown and to and extent Riggins were the best at this. They beat you to death with 4 or 5 yard runs. Then ripped you for a 55 yard touchdown. 

 

Jim Brown is still the most brutal running back I have ever watched on tape. And probably the best football player of all time. Just a ridiculous mix of power and break away speed.  Some would argue for Baugh. But Brown was simply a monster. I never get sick of watching his film:

 

 

 

[SemperFi Skins]

Cardiologists at Harvard and the University of Michigan have cleared Michigan DT Maurice Hurst to resume playing football.

Hurst was diagnosed with a heart condition at the NFL Combine, which prevented him from participating in on-field drills. After he was cleared by two sets of heart doctors, Hurst will perform a full workout in front of NFL teams at Michigan's Pro Day on Friday. On game tape, Hurst is arguably a top-ten prospect in this draft. He is a poor man's Aaron Donald at 6-foot-1, 292.

 

 

Source: Adam Schefter on Twitter

Mar 22 - 2:39 PM

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

13 hours ago, LaRonDontLikeUgly said:

In my heart of hearts, Moore and Chark are the only guys worthy of a 1st round pick and it shouldn't be until the 20's.

 

 

Chark is not worth a 1st round pick.  He's not a hands catcher, he'll body catch everything if possible.  He could be a very nice piece to a team that helps make an offensive scheme work.  But I doubt he'll ever come close to being a #1 WR.

[skinny21]

@Darth Tater Maybe I’ve missed it, but I have’t seen anyone say they want a home run hitter, at least not one that can’t also carry the load.  Guice, Chubb, Michel, Penny seem to be the ones everyone would like to add to the team - all guys that can do the other stuff you’re talking about (except maybe block - Penny... cough, cough)

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

3 hours ago, The Consigliere said:

I have Guice, and Chubb super close, so for me, I'd want to trade down a bit, into the 20's, then pull the trigger, the key is to pick ahead of around slot 28, don't let teams with high 2nd rounders jump in front of us, and definitely pick ahead of them.

 

Hoping we get Guice or Chubb, fearing we get Michel or Jones instead. 

 

You think teams will trade up for a RB?  This class is supposedly deep, but there are always scheme differences and so on.  Assuming no trade ups, and assuming nothing whacky like the Steelers taking a RB in the 1st despite having Bell franchise tagged...then I think the latest we could pick without fear of someone sniping the RB we want is unfortunately pick #32 in the 1st.

 

Cleveland is a wildcard, they could trade back, or they could stick at #33 and #35.  They have Duke Johnson as their 3rd down guy, and they signed Carlos Hyde to a $5 million a year deal, but Hyde is often hurt.

 

Indianapolis is likely to draft a RB.  Frank Gore is gone, they've got nobody else.  They have 3 second rounders.  They pick #36, #37, and #49.

 

Now one of those two teams might draft Saquon Barkley at #4 or #6, so who knows.  But once the 2nd round starts, RB's can go flying off the board.

[Taylorcooley1]

How would everyone fill about drafting that wr from Alabama?...if hankins signs here maybe we can go wr at 13..

[JamesMadisonSkins]

How's this for a trade-down draft?

1.13 to NYG for 2.2 + 3.2 + 3.7

2.2 to DEN for 2.8 + 3.5

 

2.8: Will Hernandez, OG UTEP

2.12: Harrison Phillips, DT Stanford

3.2: Rashaad Penny, RB SDSU

3.5: Josey Jewell, ILB Iowa

3.7: Kyle Lauletta, QB Richmond

4.8: Tavarus McFadden, CB/S FSU

4.12: Oggie Okoronkwo, Edge Oklahoma

5.13: Kendrick Norton, NT Miami

6.12 Tony Brown, CB Alabama

7.13: Will Richardson, OT NC State

7.23: Antonio Callaway, WR Florida

 

Would never happen in a million years, and I would argue that pick 3.7 should have gone to a developmental TE or something instead of QB, but with that many picks I figured why not. Also, this flies in the face of "get a stud, we don't need depth" mentality of sticking to #13, but given the number of picks I tried to get a guy I really like at each pick and just happened to nail the positions of need.

3 minutes ago, Taylorcooley1 said:

How would everyone fill about drafting that wr from Alabama?...if hankins signs here maybe we can go wr at 13..

No, because the chances of 4, if not 5, QBs going in the Top 12 is likely ... meaning there would be a blue-chip defender there. I won't be please if we passed on Roquan Smith, Derwin James or Minkah Fitzpatrick for Ridley.

 

I don't think we need WRs guys. Crowder is great in the slot. The team clearly believes in Doctson as the #1 WR long-term ... and Paul Richardson was just signed to be a #2 / field stretching speed guy. Not sure why we would draft Ridley to have him be our 4th best WR (and probably 5th best when accounting fro Reed).

[Est.1974]

Wonder if the Giants are thinking of flipping picks with the Browns to get to #1 and stop someone jumping them for their first choice QB. Browns might be happy with that as they could sit at #2 and get who they want anyway.

[The Consigliere]

Found the Barfield Stuff, his numbers suggest the best backs in the class could be, not surprisingly, Barkley, Guice, Chubb, Michel, and interestingly, Penny. His mid round gem is John Kelly, who had a disappointing combine, but who finished near the top of the class in yards created related statistics. My dark horse Freeman, didn't show so great in his model. Hmmm. Rumored target Ronald Jones does not fair well in this, kind of Marlon Mackish in his boom/bust production, plus a lot of stupid running (running into his blockers, rather than running with patience and vision after the initial handoff).

 

Top 15 RB's in "missed tackles" forced per attempt through the yards created model since the awful 2016 class:

 

Tier 1

1.S. Barkley .586

2. J. Mixon .570

 

Tier 2

3. John Kelly .528

 

Tier 3

4. Dalvin Cook .495

 

Tier 4

5. L. Fournette .469 (if you look at '15 season and exclude injury riddled '16)

6. N. Chubb .468

7. K. Hunt .465

 

Tier 5

8. S. Michel .456

 

Tier 6

9. C.J. Prosise .405 (stud who basically breaks an ankle climbing out of bed in the morning)

10. Deandre Washington . .402

11. C. McCaffrey .400

 

Tier 7

12. R. Penny .392

13. D. Guice .389

 

Tier 8

14. Zeke Elliot .380

15. Joe Williams .373

 

Worth noting that he excluded Fournette's 2016 #'s, while he kept in Guice's #'s despite Guice being injured for much of '17. If he uses healthy Guice numbers, my guess is he would have jumped up at least one and possibly another two tiers. Ditto Chubb who has been recovering from injury in '16/'17, so not surprisingly, he's not as high as he'd be if you were looking at his healthy 2014-2015 numbers.