Rdskns2000

Presidential Election:11/3/20 - Union Joe vs Confederate Don

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3 hours ago, Rdskns2000 said:

Who Can't afford to do poorly in the early states?

 

Warren. She needs to either win Iowa and New Hampshire or finish no worse than 3rd. She finishes 4th, her campaign begins its death spiral. She would probably be gone after Super Tuesday.

Klobuchar needs to finish no worse than 3rd. If she can't; she won't make it to Super Tuesday.

Mayor Pete is in good position but if he finishes 4th or worse, He's done.

Biden loses South Carolina; it's the beginning of the end. It means he lost his black support.

 

Bloomberg isn't even competition in those early states.

 

The also rans and vanity candidates don't matter.

I think it will be a brokered convention and if so the also rans will matter. I imagine a brokered convention would favour Biden (the main/biggest establishment candidate - due to the super delegates).

Edited by nonniey

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23 hours ago, nonniey said:

I think it will be a brokered convention and if so the also rans will matter. I imagine a brokered convention would favour Biden (the main/biggest establishment candidate - due to the super delegates).

Super Delegates aren't allowed to vote in the 1st round I think. If the balloting goes to a 2nd round, then Super Delegates can vote.   Bloomberg is banking that he can win those Super Delegates.

 

I really don't think the also rans will really matter, unless they win a nice chunk of delegates.

 

Legit Contenders

Sanders, Biden, Buttigieg, Warren

 

On StandBy

Bloomberg- He's not competing until Super Tuesday: 3/3 so it's a wait and see with him.

 

Iowa/New Hampshire or Bust 

Klobuchar - If she can finish at least 3rd in those 2 states; she will be done.

Booker- I think he hopes to hang on until South Carolina on 2/29. Highly doubtful he lasts that long. He also needs to finish in Top 3.

 

Vanity Candidates

Steyer, Yang- Since they have their own money, they will be in it as long as they want to.  I really don't see them having impact at the convention unless they surprise and win alot of delegates

 

Also Rans

Bennett- He will no impact at all. Probably gone after Iowa/New Hamsphire

Delaney- He can stay in as long as he wants since he has his own money but I think he drops out after Iowa/New Hampshire.

Patrick- He's not even registering.  He will be gone after New Hampshire

Gabbard-  She might win some delegates but we all know, she's running in the fall on somebody's ticket.

 

I definitely don't see the also rans have any impact in the convention unless they rack up alot of delegates and that seems unlikely.

 

If we do head for a contested convention, while Biden will be favorite; it won't mean he's a lock for the nomination.

Edited by Rdskns2000

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9 minutes ago, Cooked Crack said:

Yikes at them Pete numbers

 

Really looking bad for anybody but Biden, there.  

 

Maybe a good chunk of those voters show up in the general for "anybody but Trump".  But will a non-Biden nominee get the enthusiastic support that will be needed against Trump?  

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Considering how well Trump is doing these days, perhaps it’s time that we go with the most likely to beat him in Biden.

 

I think, gaffes aside, he’s a poor VP selection away from failure.  If he picks a Palin to run with him then he’s doomed.

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https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/01/11/buttigiegs-black-voter-problem-by-numbers/?utm_campaign=wp_main&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook

 

Quote

And Buttigieg’s drop-off doesn’t just owe to name ID. If you look just at voters who are familiar with both Trump and each Democrat, he leads Trump 66 percent to 4 percent, making up less than half the gap between his support and Biden’s 82 percent. By contrast, Cory Booker garners 78 percent support among black voters who are familiar with him, and Andrew Yang takes 72 percent. All the other candidates do better than Buttigieg, as well.

And lastly is his potential ceiling with black voters. The poll tested a series of characteristics and asked whether they mattered to voters. The biggest dealbreaker? Being a gay man. The poll showed 21 percent of black adults said they would be “very uncomfortable” supporting one, with another 20 percent saying they’d have reservations. About half of black adults would be “comfortable” voting for a gay man, while 8 percent say they would be “enthusiastic.”


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3 hours ago, Larry said:

 

Really looking bad for anybody but Biden, there.  

 

Maybe a good chunk of those voters show up in the general for "anybody but Trump".  But will a non-Biden nominee get the enthusiastic support that will be needed against Trump?  

And you think there will be enthusiastic pro Biden voters?

 

Biden will depress turnout among the young. 

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Wondering if a Biden/Booty ticket makes sense.  

 

Would Biden want another moderate under him?  Or somebody more radical, to appease the radical element?  (Something tells me Liz would be a great "VP in charge of wonky policies, and herding legislation through Congress.")

 

But I confess, I like Buttigieg.  Don't think he's experienced enough.  But I'd sure love to see him move up the Dem Party depth chart.  

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14 minutes ago, Larry said:

But I confess, I like Buttigieg.  Don't think he's experienced enough.  But I'd sure love to see him move up the Dem Party depth chart.  

 

I like him more before the advisors got in his ear. its clearly working for his campaign, given his presence thus far, but his suits a little empty

Edited by StillUnknown
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I still think it's gonna be a Biden/Abrams ticket.

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Biden-   He will need to excite the progressive base.  Best picks for him are Stacey Abrams or Elizabeth Warren

Sanders-  It doesn't matter, he is going to pick someone close to him politically. No balancing here.  I say same for him, Stacey Abrams or Elizabeth Warren.

Warren-  She needs to calm the establishment.  Pete Buttigieg would be an interesting choice. Though, I think she is going to pick Julian Castro if she is the nominee.

Buttigieg- He needs black support, so Stacy Abrams is the choice for him.

Bloomberg-  He probably can pick someone like Klobuchar or Buttigieg. Think he will need a midwesterner on the ticket.

 

No one else has potential to be the nominee. 

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9 hours ago, Rdskns2000 said:

And you think there will be enthusiastic pro Biden voters?

 

Biden will depress turnout among the young. 

 

If the "young" fail to turn out to defeat this assclown Trump, then they deserve every derisive millenial and whatever joke heaped on them. 

 

Again..whoever the dem candidate is..vote early and vote often. 

Edited by The Evil Genius
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