nonniey Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 3 hours ago, Rdskns2000 said: Who Can't afford to do poorly in the early states? Warren. She needs to either win Iowa and New Hampshire or finish no worse than 3rd. She finishes 4th, her campaign begins its death spiral. She would probably be gone after Super Tuesday. Klobuchar needs to finish no worse than 3rd. If she can't; she won't make it to Super Tuesday. Mayor Pete is in good position but if he finishes 4th or worse, He's done. Biden loses South Carolina; it's the beginning of the end. It means he lost his black support. Bloomberg isn't even competition in those early states. The also rans and vanity candidates don't matter. I think it will be a brokered convention and if so the also rans will matter. I imagine a brokered convention would favour Biden (the main/biggest establishment candidate - due to the super delegates). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StillUnknown Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
visionary Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
88Comrade2000 Posted January 11, 2020 Author Share Posted January 11, 2020 23 hours ago, nonniey said: I think it will be a brokered convention and if so the also rans will matter. I imagine a brokered convention would favour Biden (the main/biggest establishment candidate - due to the super delegates). Super Delegates aren't allowed to vote in the 1st round I think. If the balloting goes to a 2nd round, then Super Delegates can vote. Bloomberg is banking that he can win those Super Delegates. I really don't think the also rans will really matter, unless they win a nice chunk of delegates. Legit Contenders Sanders, Biden, Buttigieg, Warren On StandBy Bloomberg- He's not competing until Super Tuesday: 3/3 so it's a wait and see with him. Iowa/New Hampshire or Bust Klobuchar - If she can finish at least 3rd in those 2 states; she will be done. Booker- I think he hopes to hang on until South Carolina on 2/29. Highly doubtful he lasts that long. He also needs to finish in Top 3. Vanity Candidates Steyer, Yang- Since they have their own money, they will be in it as long as they want to. I really don't see them having impact at the convention unless they surprise and win alot of delegates Also Rans Bennett- He will no impact at all. Probably gone after Iowa/New Hamsphire Delaney- He can stay in as long as he wants since he has his own money but I think he drops out after Iowa/New Hampshire. Patrick- He's not even registering. He will be gone after New Hampshire Gabbard- She might win some delegates but we all know, she's running in the fall on somebody's ticket. I definitely don't see the also rans have any impact in the convention unless they rack up alot of delegates and that seems unlikely. If we do head for a contested convention, while Biden will be favorite; it won't mean he's a lock for the nomination. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
visionary Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Evil Genius Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 I need this sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Momma There Goes That Man Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 13 hours ago, Rdskns2000 said: Gabbard- She might wins some delegates but we all know, she's running in the fall on somebody's ticket. Putin’s ticket Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cooked Crack Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 Yikes at them Pete numbers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Larry Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 9 minutes ago, Cooked Crack said: Yikes at them Pete numbers Really looking bad for anybody but Biden, there. Maybe a good chunk of those voters show up in the general for "anybody but Trump". But will a non-Biden nominee get the enthusiastic support that will be needed against Trump? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Springfield Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 Considering how well Trump is doing these days, perhaps it’s time that we go with the most likely to beat him in Biden. I think, gaffes aside, he’s a poor VP selection away from failure. If he picks a Palin to run with him then he’s doomed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Springfield Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/01/11/buttigiegs-black-voter-problem-by-numbers/?utm_campaign=wp_main&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook Quote And Buttigieg’s drop-off doesn’t just owe to name ID. If you look just at voters who are familiar with both Trump and each Democrat, he leads Trump 66 percent to 4 percent, making up less than half the gap between his support and Biden’s 82 percent. By contrast, Cory Booker garners 78 percent support among black voters who are familiar with him, and Andrew Yang takes 72 percent. All the other candidates do better than Buttigieg, as well. And lastly is his potential ceiling with black voters. The poll tested a series of characteristics and asked whether they mattered to voters. The biggest dealbreaker? Being a gay man. The poll showed 21 percent of black adults said they would be “very uncomfortable” supporting one, with another 20 percent saying they’d have reservations. About half of black adults would be “comfortable” voting for a gay man, while 8 percent say they would be “enthusiastic.” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
88Comrade2000 Posted January 11, 2020 Author Share Posted January 11, 2020 3 hours ago, Larry said: Really looking bad for anybody but Biden, there. Maybe a good chunk of those voters show up in the general for "anybody but Trump". But will a non-Biden nominee get the enthusiastic support that will be needed against Trump? And you think there will be enthusiastic pro Biden voters? Biden will depress turnout among the young. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Larry Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 Wondering if a Biden/Booty ticket makes sense. Would Biden want another moderate under him? Or somebody more radical, to appease the radical element? (Something tells me Liz would be a great "VP in charge of wonky policies, and herding legislation through Congress.") But I confess, I like Buttigieg. Don't think he's experienced enough. But I'd sure love to see him move up the Dem Party depth chart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StillUnknown Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 14 minutes ago, Larry said: But I confess, I like Buttigieg. Don't think he's experienced enough. But I'd sure love to see him move up the Dem Party depth chart. I like him more before the advisors got in his ear. its clearly working for his campaign, given his presence thus far, but his suits a little empty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCB Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 I still think it's gonna be a Biden/Abrams ticket. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LadySkinsFan Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 Marianne Williamson out of the race. https://news.yahoo.com/marianne-williamson-drops-2020-race-180233167.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Larry Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 Who? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skinsmarydu Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 I saw her on TV a couple times...she falls into the "any functioning adult" category. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Springfield Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 1 hour ago, Larry said: Who? no clue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
88Comrade2000 Posted January 12, 2020 Author Share Posted January 12, 2020 Biden- He will need to excite the progressive base. Best picks for him are Stacey Abrams or Elizabeth Warren Sanders- It doesn't matter, he is going to pick someone close to him politically. No balancing here. I say same for him, Stacey Abrams or Elizabeth Warren. Warren- She needs to calm the establishment. Pete Buttigieg would be an interesting choice. Though, I think she is going to pick Julian Castro if she is the nominee. Buttigieg- He needs black support, so Stacy Abrams is the choice for him. Bloomberg- He probably can pick someone like Klobuchar or Buttigieg. Think he will need a midwesterner on the ticket. No one else has potential to be the nominee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Evil Genius Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 9 hours ago, Rdskns2000 said: And you think there will be enthusiastic pro Biden voters? Biden will depress turnout among the young. If the "young" fail to turn out to defeat this assclown Trump, then they deserve every derisive millenial and whatever joke heaped on them. Again..whoever the dem candidate is..vote early and vote often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
88Comrade2000 Posted January 12, 2020 Author Share Posted January 12, 2020 The Odds on a Contested Convention, and a Tie on Nov. 3 Democrats' Milwaukee Surprise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
visionary Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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