Rdskns2000

Presidential Election:11/3/20 - Joe vs Twitter Terrorist

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You may recall that Alan Lichtman, a professor at American U, has successfully predicted nearly every Presidential election, including Trump winning, by applying his 13 factors.  Here is an update on where things stand.  Some of them you can argue either way.  If the sitting President fails on 6 of the 13 factors, Lichtman's model predicts he will lose.

 

https://www.nydailynews.com/opinion/ny-oped-this-is-looking-bad-for-trump-20200528-5v4rfh4ma5b3xf6xtxw7am2som-story.html

 

Here are the 13 factors.  The ones in bold are the ones I believe count as a point against Trump as things stand right now.  In other words, the items in bold are false.  

 

1. Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the US House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
2 Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
3. Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
4. Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
5. Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
6. Long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.

7. Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
8. Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
9. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.

10. Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
11. Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
12. Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
13. Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.

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Those points would be true in a normal election. It isn’t a normal election and we have one candidate and party; that will do whatever it takes to keep power.

 

I say they will steal the election. They will limit voting in Dem areas. Shut down areas due to corona.

 

Whatever, you can come up; Trump and the GOP will do.

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I feel they get 13 too @PleaseBlitz

 

Normally im not that impressed with Biden in general. But hes uniquely qualified - the term I heard recently was terrible grace of God or something to that effect - uniquely qualified to understand peoples pain. And alot of people are going to be hurting in this country unfortunately by the time this election rolls around. 

 

I dont know if what I said made any sense. But I think you can highlight 13 is my point. 

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35 minutes ago, Rdskns2000 said:

Those points would be true in a normal election. It isn’t a normal election and we have one candidate and party; that will do whatever it takes to keep power.

 

I say they will steal the election. They will limit voting in Dem areas. Shut down areas due to corona.

 

Whatever, you can come up; Trump and the GOP will do.

 

Agree.  Can we all agree right now that when Bill Barr announces a DoJ investigation against Biden or people closely connected to him, we can all just assume that it's total bull****? 

 

24 minutes ago, Llevron said:

I feel they get 13 too @PleaseBlitz

 

Normally im not that impressed with Biden in general. But hes uniquely qualified - the term I heard recently was terrible grace of God or something to that effect - uniquely qualified to understand peoples pain. And alot of people are going to be hurting in this country unfortunately by the time this election rolls around. 

 

I dont know if what I said made any sense. But I think you can highlight 13 is my point. 

 

I tried to give Trump the benefit of the doubt, which is why I gave Trump, but not Biden, the factor for having charisma.  Trump has charisma according to about 40% of voters and is the worst human alive for about 45%.  Totally agree with you that Biden has a ton of empathy, which holds him in utter contrast to Trump.  

 

Certainly 2, 3 and 4 are not true.  

Edited by PleaseBlitz
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3 minutes ago, PleaseBlitz said:

I tried to give Trump the benefit of the doubt, which is why I gave Trump, but not Biden, the factor for having charisma.  Trump has charisma according to about 40% of voters and is the worst human alive for about 45%.  Certainly 2, 3 and 4 are not true.  

 

Ah ok I feel you then. 

 

I say things about not being super impressed by Joe normally - but I gotta tell you guys I hope he does the things he says. I do think a lot of my detachment when it comes to him is that I have heard it said before and watched it go nowhere. Not really his fault. And its something that I normally think would hurt him, but when running against Trump it basically doesn't matter. 

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14 minutes ago, Llevron said:

 

Ah ok I feel you then. 

 

I say things about not being super impressed by Joe normally - but I gotta tell you guys I hope he does the things he says. I do think a lot of my detachment when it comes to him is that I have heard it said before and watched it go nowhere. Not really his fault. And its something that I normally think would hurt him, but when running against Trump it basically doesn't matter. 

 

I actually edited my post to make it more clear, I originally misread your post.  

 

I personally really like Joe Biden as a person.  Regardless of where he stands on the political spectrum (and he's reasonably close to where I am), i just think he's got a big heart and gives a damn about regular folks.  He's certainly got flaws and says things he shouldn't sometimes, but at base I think he's good people.  

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3 minutes ago, PleaseBlitz said:

 

I actually edited my post to make it more clear, I originally misread your post.  

 

I personally really like Joe Biden as a person.  Regardless of where he stands on the political spectrum (and he's reasonably close to where I am), i just think he's got a big heart and gives a damn about regular folks.  He's certainly got flaws and says things he shouldn't sometimes, but at base I think he's good people.  

 

I think we really really need good people leading us. We agree on him here. I can feel his heart through the camera and that means so much more in 2020 than it did in 2016. Hell now that I think about it hes basically the opposite of Hillary in that regard. 

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@PleaseBlitz do you think Trump failed in 10 considering how he left the Kurds for dead and his own military called him out for it?

Edited by Renegade7

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21 minutes ago, PleaseBlitz said:

I tried to give Trump the benefit of the doubt, which is why I gave Trump, but not Biden, the factor for having charisma.  Trump has charisma according to about 40% of voters and is the worst human alive for about 45%.  Certainly 2, 3 and 4 are not true.  

I feel like none of the ones you bolded are really arguable. I'm sure some MAGAts would try, but they are all pretty clear. Some of the ones that are not bolded are the ones that are debatable. Like, I tend to agree with you giving Trump a nod on charisma and not one to Biden. But people do generally like Biden, while Trump is adored by a minority and the majority of the country thinks he's some combination of amoral, criminal, narcissistic, dishonest and moronic (many of us think "all of the above"). 

 

So, that's kind of one of the problems with lists like this. I think you applied the criteria correctly, yet we're essentially giving Trump points for two things that may in practice be a combined negative for him. 

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57 minutes ago, Renegade7 said:

@PleaseBlitz do you think Trump failed in 10 considering how he left the Kurds for dead and his own military called him out for it?

 

I think you could point to any number of foreign policy failures, but none that really stick for the average person because they don't have much of a personal effect on people stateside.  I would contend that his biggest foreign policy failure was taking the side of Russia over America's own intelligence apparatus while Putin stood there and grinned and/or the lack of commitment to NATO. 

 

30 minutes ago, Rufus T Firefly said:

I feel like none of the ones you bolded are really arguable. I'm sure some MAGAts would try, but they are all pretty clear. Some of the ones that are not bolded are the ones that are debatable. Like, I tend to agree with you giving Trump a nod on charisma and not one to Biden. But people do generally like Biden, while Trump is adored by a minority and the majority of the country thinks he's some combination of amoral, criminal, narcissistic, dishonest and moronic (many of us think "all of the above"). 

 

So, that's kind of one of the problems with lists like this. I think you applied the criteria correctly, yet we're essentially giving Trump points for two things that may in practice be a combined negative for him. 

 

Yea, I only bolded the ones that were clear cut, for the reasons you mentioned.  

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13 minutes ago, PleaseBlitz said:

 

I think you could point to any number of foreign policy failures, but none that really stick for the average person because they don't have much of a personal effect on people stateside.  I would contend that his biggest foreign policy failure was taking the side of Russia over America's own intelligence apparatus while Putin stood there and grinned and/or the lack of commitment to NATO. 

 

 

Yea, I only bolded the ones that were clear cut, for the reasons you mentioned.  

 

Maybe, but there have been a lot of failures in foreign policy. Also, the tariffs killing farmers is a currently a big failure right now. 

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25 minutes ago, Hersh said:

I would contend that his biggest foreign policy failure was taking the side of Russia over America's own intelligence apparatus while Putin stood there and grinned and/or the lack of commitment to NATO. 

 

I would say his literal approval of Russia's invasion and annexation of part of a Baltic country, so that they could achieve a strategic asset (a warm water port) that they've been wanting since at least WW2.  And his outright hostility to NATO.  

 

His placing of his son in law in charge of a middle east peace plan which consists of "let's give Israel everything they've ever wanted", without even meeting with the Palestinians was a good one, too.  

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4 minutes ago, LadySkinsFan said:

He'll probably choose Texas. After all, it's not like anything will be paid for.


It’ll be at or near a Trump property. Probably Maralago or however the **** you spell it. 
 

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6 hours ago, Rdskns2000 said:

 

 

I say they will steal the election. They will limit voting in Dem areas. Shut down areas due to corona.

 

Whatever, you can come up; Trump and the GOP will do.

This will just result in more riots and looting , they may not want to try and open this can of worms 

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