Presidential Election: 11/3/20 ---Now the President Elect Joe Biden Thread

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Politics · Trending

#LyinBiden

Trending with: #LyingJoe, #LyingBiden

[TheGreatBuzz]

As a conservative-minded swing voter in a swing state, I'll say Biden could pick Hitler as his running mate and I'd still vote for him over Trump.  If the Trump admin didn't already look bad enough, this virus situation seals it.  It won't be long before every person in the country is affected by this is some way.  And they will remember it.

 

This election is about D vs R.  Nothing else.

[Larry]

1 hour ago, TheGreatBuzz said:

This election is about D vs R.  Nothing else.

 

Getting to the point of being about "life" or "death".  

 

A month ago, I would have attacked somebody for making such an obviously hyperbolic claim.  

[TheGreatBuzz]

13 minutes ago, Larry said:

A month ago, I would have attacked somebody for making such an obviously hyperbolic claim. 

Some of us have been trying to raise the alarm for a while now.  

 

As @Bang has been saying, best be ready.

[PleaseBlitz]

9 hours ago, Rufus T Firefly said:

You can call it "fighting the last war" all you want. The fact is the argument you're advancing lost last time, and in the mid-term the Dems took back control precisely by turning out their base in massive numbers. What you're talking about is the exact thinking that powered the nominations of Hillary Clinton, John Kerry and Al Gore, and which argued against Barack Obama and Bill Clinton. But you seem to want to pretend it's forward thinking.

By base, you of course mean “moderate suburbanites, particularly women” right?  Because that is who drive overwhelming Dem wins.  The rest of your post ignores the multiple elections have happened since 2016, which is why nobody agrees with you. 

[hail2skins]

4 hours ago, TheGreatBuzz said:

As a conservative-minded swing voter in a swing state, I'll say Biden could pick Hitler as his running mate and I'd still vote for him over Trump.  If the Trump admin didn't already look bad enough, this virus situation seals it.  It won't be long before every person in the country is affected by this is some way.  And they will remember it.

 

This election is about D vs R.  Nothing else.

Buzz, I'm with you. I'll give Trump credit for the initial ban from China. However, his public statements minimizing this thing were appalling. People are now seeing the light, but just a week ago Trump was right there with Sheriff Clarke and Devin Nunes, blowing this off.

 

I would hope such statements and BS things like telling everyone how smart he was on his CDC visit and signing Friday's Dow Jones chart for Lou Dobbs to display will resonate with enough people to make a difference. But sadly I dont think it will, and I disagree with Scaramucci that a recession will cost Trump his job, because he will now be able to pin it (mostly correctly) on the thing that he was blowing off, at least publicly, just one week ago.

[Barry.Randolphe]

I hope Biden plays Trump's bull**** press conferences, CDC tours, and signing the DJI chart so it really hammers how careless he's been over and over again around election time so these mouthbreathers finally get it through their thick skulls 

 

[hail2skins]

Wrong audience Barry. The "mouthbreathers" are unreachable, it's the swing voters you would hope such an ad would resonate with.

[Rufus T Firefly]

2 hours ago, PleaseBlitz said:

nobody agrees with you. 

Nobody except people who know the data:

 

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/registered-voters-who-stayed-home-probably-cost-clinton-the-election/

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More harmful for Clinton was which young voters stayed home: minorities. Among white voters, voters 18-29 years old made up 30 percent of voters who did not participate in the November election. Among young Hispanic voters, that climbs to 43 percent. Among young black voters, it was an even higher 46 percent. That generally matches the findings of the voter data released in some Southern states showing that young black voters were especially likely to stay home in this election. Younger black voters were far more likely to support Bernie Sanders in the primary, suggesting that there simply was not the enthusiasm for Clinton’s candidacy as there was for Obama’s in 2012. Clinton’s favorable rating, for instance, was about 10 percentage points lower among the youngest black voters compared to the oldest black voters in the SurveyMonkey poll.

 

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/ajps.12218

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A clearer conclusion is that the response of voters and elites to each other's behavior has helped to facilitate this trend. By being less conflicted and more stable in their support of party nominees, the response of Americans to elite polarization changes the electoral incentives of party candidates. When party preferences are more predictable and less responsive to short‐term forces, candidates have little need to appeal to the moderate or pragmatic concerns of the few remaining floating voters. For those states where one party has an advantage, greater stability enhances the dominant party's certainty of winning and reduces its need to appeal to moderates or floating voters. But even if stalwart supporters are evenly matched, and floating voters are potentially decisive, the predictability of support among likely nonvoters may make a mobilization strategy more appealing. Candidate efforts to persuade and win over a small group of floating voters are costly and provide uncertain payoffs. In contrast, and as was exemplified by the winning campaigns of 2004 and 2012, presidential candidates often see larger payoffs in trying to mobilize those who previously did not vote but are highly reliable in their support.

 

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/02/06/rachel-bitecofer-profile-election-forecasting-new-theory-108944

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Hillary Clinton had run an entire campaign built around classic assumptions: She was trying to pick off Republicans and Republican-leaning independents appalled by Trump. So she chose a bland white man, Tim Kaine, as a running mate; it also explained her policy-lite messaging and her ads. But in the end, almost all of those voters stuck with the GOP. The voters who voted third party should have been Democratic voters—they were disproportionately young, diverse and college educated—but they were turned off by the divisive Democratic primary, and the Clinton camp made no effort to activate them in the general election.

 

https://www.vox.com/2019/4/26/18516645/2018-midterms-voter-turnout-census
 

Quote

 

Young people drove voter turnout increases. Nearly 36 percent of 18- to 29-year-old citizens reported voting — a 16 percent jump from 2014, when only 20 percent of the youngest voters turned out to the polls. Adults ages 30 to 44 also increased voter turnout by 13 percent.

Voter turnout increased more among voters with college degrees than among those without. Voters with more education have historically had higher voter turnout than those without, and that dynamic was amplified last year.

More voters in urban areas — 54 percent of citizens — reported voting than those who live outside of metro areas. That’s in sharp contrast to 2014, when people in rural areas voted slightly more than those in urban areas, by 44 percent to 42 percent.

Lastly, overall, more women (55 percent) turned out to vote than men (52). More notably, turnout among young women was higher than among young men — a data point that flipped with older voters, where more men cast ballots than women. 

If these trends continue, it’s a good sign for Democrats; they have a long history of winning over younger voters and women by huge numbers, as well as having a strong hold on urban areas.

 

 

[Hersh]

Are we really talking about Hillary? She lost for a variety of reasons, but there is really only one take away from that election. Dems have to campaign in the right states and not waste much time on places like NC. Beyond that, there are no other takeaways because this is an entirely different election after 4 years of dip**** Trump. 

[PleaseBlitz]

Seriously, it is not 2016 and Biden is not Clinton.  The 538 article literally says that the reason people didn't turn out for Clinton was they didn't like Clinton.  The Vox article doesn't help your contention that progressives should be the target.  It attributes Dem gains to 4 groups:  (1) young people, who skew progressive and therefore voted for Bernie (but are not turning out in 2020), but also (2) voters with college degrees, who have so far voted overwhelmingly for the moderate candidate (62 to 28 in the latest nationwide Q poll),  (3) urban voters, who are basically split at this point and (4) women, who favor Biden 54 to 34 in the latest nationwide Q poll.  Here's another Vox article that attributes Biden's dominating performances recently to black and suburban white votes.   

[hail2skins]

29 minutes ago, Hersh said:

Are we really talking about Hillary? She lost for a variety of reasons, but there is really only one take away from that election. Dems have to campaign in the right states and not waste much time on places like NC. Beyond that, there are no other takeaways because this is an entirely different election after 4 years of dip**** Trump. 

The focus where Trump won by razor thin margins was PA, Mi, WI  but NC, FL, and AZ were relatively close. Might need one of those 3 in case you can't sweep the three Midwest ones.

[visionary]

[skinsmarydu]

I had a feeling something was going to happen to the relief bill...I thought it would be Mitch, not drunk Uncle Louie. 

[Rufus T Firefly]

 

[visionary]

What's a passable liberal for Bernie folks?  Nina Turner?  Marianne Williamson?

[visionary]

 

[PleaseBlitz]

19 minutes ago, visionary said:

What's a passable liberal for Bernie folks?  Nina Turner?  Marianne Williamson?

Jane Sanders?  Bernie, in a wig and a dress?

[visionary]

The primaries need to be done.  It's just too chaotic and confusing at this point.

 

 

 

 

 

[Larry]

37 minutes ago, PleaseBlitz said:

Bernie, in a wig and a dress?

 

Only with a pig nose.  

[bearrock]

What if Biden offers to Sanders to split the delegates from tomorrow evenly and asks supporters to stay home.  And then asks all voters in future primary to vote absentee?

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