Rdskns2000

Presidential Election 2020 - Same Idiot Joker vs Batwoman or Batman

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3 minutes ago, AsburySkinsFan said:

It's time to beat Trump, and going Left will NOT do that because the middle will plug their nose and vote for him again or stay home. And if they stay home then the Right wins because the Right actually shows up to vote.

Yup. That’s my concern. Though I don’t know, maybe I’m exaggerating it. 

 

I just know that if my options are trump or very progressive policies, then I’m not happy with my options. And I know I’m not alone. And I’m not quite sure what that means I’ll do. 

 

I refuse to allow someone to force me to support policies I am very much against just because the other option sucks. 

40 minutes ago, twa said:

I still think Kamala and some whitebread tbd later.....Pete seems to be struggling , I had hopes he would be it

I feel like she’s sliding for some reason :(

 

not sure how I feel about here. Like her more I watch. 

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1 minute ago, tshile said:

Yup. That’s my concern. Though I don’t know, maybe I’m exaggerating it. 

 

I just know that if my options are trump or very progressive policies, then I’m not happy with my options. And I know I’m not alone. And I’m not quite sure what that means I’ll do. 

 

I refuse to allow someone to force me to support policies I am very much against just because the other option sucks. 

I get it.

When I think about pulling the lever for Bernie I get ill. Stop counting my damn money old man! Just ****ing give me the freedom of life, liberty, and happiness, while keeping a regulatory eye on those ****ing assholes who would kill maim and destroy everything to make a dollar. Let's have real controls on medical prices and not just discussions about how to pay for massively high medical care. Be pro-business without trying to **** the employees.

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Posted (edited)

Pundit class/ GOP concern trolls to Democratic voters:

 

2000: Better nominate Al Gore or you'll lose (and you should probably nominate a Clinton basher as VP just to be sure).

 

2004: Better nominate John Kerry or you'll lose.

 

2008: Better not nominate that Obama guy, he's a sure loser.

 

2016: Better nominate Hillary or you'll lose.

 

2020: I can't believe you morons aren't listening to us.

Edited by Rufus T Firefly
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7 minutes ago, tshile said:

Yup. That’s my concern. Though I don’t know, maybe I’m exaggerating it. 

 

I just know that if my options are trump or very progressive policies, then I’m not happy with my options. And I know I’m not alone. And I’m not quite sure what that means I’ll do. 

 

I refuse to allow someone to force me to support policies I am very much against just because the other option sucks. 

I feel like she’s sliding for some reason :(

 

not sure how I feel about here. Like her more I watch. 

Trump has not gained any more support since 2016. He's lost women, he's lost the indy vote and his base mainly consist of blue collar, white men pushing retirement. I don't think that will get him reelected, but even if it does, it definitely won't save the GOP party in the future.

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1 minute ago, Simmsy said:

Trump has not gained any more support since 2016. He's lost women, he's lost the indy vote and his base mainly consist of blue collar, white men pushing retirement. I don't think that will get him reelected, but even if it does, it definitely won't save the GOP party in the future.

 

I think you are wrong, as usual .

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40 minutes ago, tshile said:

I’ve been saying this for months... most here reject it. 

 

They think its a time to push their progressive policies. 

 

I think that’s a mistake. 

 

 

i lean with the same reaction,  but analytically am not sure about the true state of affairs of what's actually under debate

 

is the better road to victory firing up all the higher-energy subgroups/issues of the broad-based constituency or playing more to moderation in hopes of reaching lost 2016 dem votes and maybe "peel off' some gop who won't just go 3rd party if they hate trump 

 

you can spin 2018 wins in ways to support either choice---notably increased turnout of black women, young people, and latinos was one huge factor, but it was also true it was moderate dems running for the positions who were able to compete so well, arguably (at least partly) becuase they were moderate

 

i can't call it as obvious as to which path is most likely to win at this time, but all my peter tingles pull me towards more moderate

 

but i'd be quite happy to see an even larger horde of re-engaged and new voters come out big again for the dems in 2020 and it will be the more progressive figureheads of the party that would drive that if it's even doable

 

it's also possible just trump hate alone---amplified after 4 years of actually having him in charge---will drive those dem voters from '12  that sat home in '16 back out for 2020 and then some, too

 

of course we also have had the big one yet to drop---that don will pull a wag the dog before 2020 when he decides it's necessary to keep his base and enablers going or if another ****--grabbing level tape, or even bigger, comes out

 

 

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59 minutes ago, PleaseBlitz said:

I would love to see Warren/Harris, mostly to see Harris skin Pence alive during the VP debate.  

 

Mother wouldn't allow Michael to be on the stage with a woman.

49 minutes ago, visionary said:

The Democrats have enough trouble coming together against Trump.

 

Which is why the GOP should be muzzling their leader. Every comment about so and so Democrat by him further galvanizes the opposition party. 

 

How no one in the GOP sees that is beyond me.

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Posted (edited)
49 minutes ago, tshile said:

I’ve been saying this for months... most here reject it. 

 

They think its a time to push their progressive policies. 

 

I think that’s a mistake. 

I'm not sure there's any stopping that at least in the primary.  It isn't just here.  But a lot of the policies are very popular and not just on the left.  Depends on the messenger though.

 

 

35 minutes ago, AsburySkinsFan said:

I get it.

When I think about pulling the lever for Bernie I get ill. Stop counting my damn money old man! Just ****ing give me the freedom of life, liberty, and happiness, while keeping a regulatory eye on those ****ing assholes who would kill maim and destroy everything to make a dollar. Let's have real controls on medical prices and not just discussions about how to pay for massively high medical care. Be pro-business without trying to **** the employees.

I'm not really a fan of Biden or Bernie for different reasons, but I think the only one I might not vote for is Gabbard. (also including her in the cabinet or administration would be pretty worrying for me, unless it's something relating to veterans maybe)

Edited by visionary
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Posted (edited)

The only way the Dems win with a pure progressive ticket is to have historic turnout in numbers to counteract the GOP vote and people scared from the progressive positions and decline to vote the Dem.  I'm just pulling numbers from my head but the Dems will need:

 

1.  Anyone that is in favor of the Warren/Harris positions; they will need probably 70% if not higher turnout of all eligible voters.  High turnout among Blacks, Hispanics, women, etc... for the Dem nominee.

 

Trump and the GOP is going to pound that socialism message.   While the younger people- Under 50; want all the change the progressive are proposing; the older people aren't ready for that much change.

 

Let's take Medicare For All.  Sounds nice and it polls well.  Then you get into details.  To insure 330 million people;  how much in taxes will people have to pay?  Everyone earning an income will have to pay for it, not just the rich.  Get rid of private insurance.  Say what?  Not everyone is going to be for that.  Also, people working for those private insurance companies; probably won't like that their jobs will be eliminated.   Yes, the younger people are for it.  I think that will scare off many of the older voters inclined to vote Dem.  No, that doesn't mean they will all vote Trump.  They just won't for Dem.  So, the Dem nominee is going to lose some votes. 

 

I don't have faith in the electorate who maybe inclined to vote for the progressive candidate and her positions; to be able to outnumber the people who will vote for Trump in the states he needs to get 270. 

 

I've said I don't believe the majority of the voting electorate is the with the progressives and their policies. Maybe, by 2028 when AOC is the Dem nominee, they will. 

 

So, it's a gamble the Dem primary voters have to make.   Do they go with someone who they agree with but that person may not be able to win the national election or go with someone they don't agree with on everything or even that motivated to vote for?  Trump is an unique threat to this country, never seen before.   He gets a second term; especially with full GOP control and the country is finished.  Can the impossible happen, sure. It happened in 2016.  

Edited by Rdskns2000

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Posted (edited)

Dems could win PA easily, very easily, if they would be moderate on guns, abortion, health care, and political corrrectness conversations. In central Pennsyltucky, the most recent events have galvanized the right wing coalition even more. There is a huge senior citizen population in PA, especially central PA. They see no issue with what Trump has done recently. The more this stuff is brought up, it galvanizes them more. Even though dems did well in 2018, a presidential election is different. There are a ton of red in PA and will quickly drown out Philly and Pittsburgh if a progressive is the candidate. Biden is almost a shoe-in in PA. Everyone else, Trump is almost a shoe-in. I suspect Florida and Michigan may be pretty similar. 

Edited by Busch1724
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24 minutes ago, Jumbo said:

lean with the same reaction,  but analytically am not sure about the true state of affairs of what's actually under debate

Same here

 

i know what my gut says

 

 but after watching 2016 unfold I’m not willing to trust it. I have no idea what is going to happen. Not even a slightest. It’s unnerving. 

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50 minutes ago, twa said:

 

I think you are wrong, as usual .

I don't think you understand, this is one of the most unpopular presidents to date. I'm not saying he can't win, but if you think this is a gimme for Trump...lay off the Fox News. Oh wait, they're "fake news" now too, right?

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10 minutes ago, tshile said:

Same here

 

i know what my gut says

 

 but after watching 2016 unfold I’m not willing to trust it. I have no idea what is going to happen. Not even a slightest. It’s unnerving. 

Unless the economy nosedives in the next year, four more years of tweetstorms is what's going to happen.

 

Only question is whether he loses the popular vote by more or less than he did in 2016. 

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Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, Simmsy said:

I don't think you understand, this is one of the most unpopular presidents to date.

 

Hes also a president where rules don’t seem to apply

 

at a time where I can think at least 5 different things to impeach him on, the dems can’t even put an effort forth to try to vote on one. 

 

Any other president would be impeached and removed 3 times over by now, and some would probably also be in jail

 

The rules don’t appear to apply. 

Edited by tshile
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Posted (edited)
19 minutes ago, Busch1724 said:

Dems could win PA easily, very easily, if they would be moderate on guns, abortion, health care, and political corrrectness conversations. In central Pennsyltucky, the most recent events have galvanized the right wing coalition even more. There is a huge senior citizen population in PA, especially central PA. They see no issue with what Trump has done recently. The more this stuff is brought up, it galvanizes them more. Even though dems did well in 2018, a presidential election is different. There are a ton of red in PA and will quickly drown out Philly and Pittsburgh if a progressive is the candidate. Biden is almost a shoe-in in PA. Everyone else, Trump is almost a shoe-in. I suspect Florida and Michigan may be pretty similar. 

 

Considering Trump won PA by 44k votes...I'd hope that state would be definitely be in play in 2020. No matter who the D nomination is.  

 

Edit..looking closer Trump got 3 counties to swing from D to R in PA. Can he keep them would be the question.

Edited by The Evil Genius

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4 minutes ago, tshile said:

 

Hes also a president where rules don’t seem to apply

 

at a time where I can think at least 5 different things to impeach him on, the dems can’t even put an effort forth to try to vote on one. 

 

Any other president would be impeached and removed 3 times over by now, and some would probably also be in jail

 

The rules don’t appear to apply. 

If the rules don't apply, it is because the GOP held all branches of government and allowed him to break the law. The majority of the public is sick of him breaking the law, his scandals and all around dumbassery. A lot of people I've talked to voted for him so he could "shake things up", well he did that. Now of course this is my own opinion and you don't have to answer this: do you really think he's gained more support since his presidency or has lost voters? Do you think his hardcore base of about a third of the voting public is enough to get him reelected?

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Simmsy said:

Trump has not gained any more support since 2016. He's lost women, he's lost the indy vote and his base mainly consist of blue collar, white men pushing retirement. I don't think that will get him reelected, but even if it does, it definitely won't save the GOP party in the future.

His base is white people who had little to no college experience. That is still a large portion of this country and includes white women.

 

Like you mentioned with "independent" voters, the suburbs are why he won.

Edited by BenningRoadSkin

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Posted (edited)
13 minutes ago, Simmsy said:

If the rules don't apply, it is because the GOP held all branches of government and allowed him to break the law. The majority of the public is sick of him breaking the law, his scandals and all around dumbassery. A lot of people I've talked to voted for him so he could "shake things up", well he did that. Now of course this is my own opinion and you don't have to answer this: do you really think he's gained more support since his presidency or has lost voters? Do you think his hardcore base of about a third of the voting public is enough to get him reelected?

hmmm.... let me preface my response with: I don't necessarily think you're wrong, I'm just concerned you're wrong.

 

IE: I actually agree with what you're saying in theory, I just have no confidence it will hold up in reality.

 

With that out of the way, yes I realize that the reason why Trump has gotten away with everything is because he's been allowed to get away with it. It started with people not taking him seriously and it spans all the way to him finagling the right people into the right spots (like AG) to not do anything about the issues. There's a long list of people responsible going all the way back to the primaries and the general, even if some of them don't want to admit it.

 

I do not think he has gained more support.

I do not think his hardcore base is enough to win.

 

I also didn't think he had enough support, and that the support he had in 2016 was enough to win. He won.

 

So I'm happy you feel as strongly as you do, noting that earlier you said you're not 100% confident. Unfortunately I've got zero confidence in any of this. Zero.

 

I've made a few posts on this over the last few months, so I'll just keep it as short as possible (the regulars are tired of reading it...): I'm watching a lot of people around me turn from 'never trump' (which they became shortly after he was elected) to 'never progressive.' As in - in the last 2 months as the dem primaries have started to get underway, these people have realized that while they hate Trump and want him out, they absolutely do not want the policies of someone like Warren, or Sanders, or Harris; None of them really say anything bad about Biden except that he appears to be not very smart, which is a wash when compared to trump.

Edited by tshile
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8 minutes ago, Simmsy said:

Now of course this is my own opinion and you don't have to answer this: do you really think he's gained more support since his presidency or has lost voters? Do you think his hardcore base of about a third of the voting public is enough to get him reelected?

Simmsy, the degree to which voters being exhausted by Trump being a pain in the ass with his "look at me" hijinks on Twitter on a daily basis has to no doubt be taken into consideration.

 

On the other hand, the voters who concern me are the ones who are going to look at, at least by the numbers, a good economy, and the fact that we are not involved in a major conflict overseas. Of course how each individuals are doing in the current economy is tough to say. All we really have to go by the overall numbers. But the number of people who are going to look at the bottom-line numbers and say, "you know, he is a pain in the ass, but things are not going so bad under him."

 

I think there are many people in that category who are going to put him over the top again. 

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1 minute ago, tshile said:

hmmm.... let me preface my response with: I don't necessarily think you're wrong, I'm just concerned you're wrong.

 

IE: I actually agree with what you're saying in theory, I just have no confidence it will hold up in reality.

 

With that out of the way, yes I realize that the reason why Trump has gotten away with everything is because he's been allowed to get away with it. It started with people not taking him seriously and it spans all the way to him finagling the right people into the right spots (like AG) to not do anything about the issues. There's a long list of people responsible going all the way back to the primaries and the general, even if some of them don't want to admit it.

 

I do not think he has gained more support.

I do not think his hardcore base is enough to win.

 

I also didn't think he had enough support, and that the support he had in 2016 was enough to win. He won.

 

So I'm happy you feel as strongly as you do, noting that earlier you said you're not 100% confident. Unfortunately I've got zero confidence in any of this. Zero.

 

I've made a few posts on this over the last few months, so I'll just keep it as short as possible: I'm watching a lot of people around me turn from 'never trump' (which they became shortly after he was elected) to 'never progressive.' As in - in the last 2 months as the dem primaries have started to get underway, these people have realized that while they hate Trump and want him out, they absolutely do not want the policies of someone like Warren, or Sanders, or Harris; None of them really say anything bad about Biden except that he appears to be not very smart, which is a wash when compared to trump.

Hahaha! Dude, I don't know more than anyone else, this is just what I think and hope will happen. I had a Trump supporter ask me last week if I thought he would win again and I had to straight up say that I had no clue. Basically, I'm just hoping that we learned something as a country during this experiment. Once again, this is anecdotal, but I've never heard anyone who didn't vote for Trump in 2016 switch over to his side as of now. I've heard plenty of Trump supporters jump ship, but once again, I've never heard that personally. Honestly, I think a lot of people wanted to rock the boat and try a different path...a lot of those people are seasick now...This administration is not normal in any way, shape or form. I think the experiment for most of the country is over.

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Posted (edited)
56 minutes ago, Busch1724 said:

Dems could win PA easily, very easily, if they would be moderate on guns, abortion, health care, and political corrrectness conversations. In central Pennsyltucky, the most recent events have galvanized the right wing coalition even more. There is a huge senior citizen population in PA, especially central PA. They see no issue with what Trump has done recently. The more this stuff is brought up, it galvanizes them more. Even though dems did well in 2018, a presidential election is different. There are a ton of red in PA and will quickly drown out Philly and Pittsburgh if a progressive is the candidate. Biden is almost a shoe-in in PA. Everyone else, Trump is almost a shoe-in. I suspect Florida and Michigan may be pretty similar. 

 

Uh, no.

 

The areas of PA that are red have been bleeding population for decades (deaths and people moving).  Areas around Harrisburg that used to be reliable red are now blue and full of people that are college educated and/or public employees.

 

These areas have been growing and the people moving in are not old fashioned reliably red.  They are for the most part college educated.  Many of them are in public employee unions.  And many of them are from other places (large growing Indian population).

 

https://cumberlink.com/news/local/coming-in-cv-mechanicsburg-school-districts-continue-to-tackle-population/article_319fb5c4-b05c-543d-aa24-b01de77f5e91.html

 

https://cumberlink.com/news/local/cumberland-set-to-be-fastest-growing-county-in-state/article_1f9a9720-9e5c-5f3f-b0a0-56ad7486b595.html

 

The key to Democrats winning Pennsylvania is large turnout in urban areas with larger gains among the college educated population in suburban areas.

 

Democrats did well in 2018 by embracing that and young people, minorities, and the college educated came out big and if the Democrats get those people to turn out again, they will easily beat Trump.  And those people did and will easily out swamp the older red Republican areas

 

https://www.brookings.edu/research/2018-voter-turnout-rose-dramatically-for-groups-favoring-democrats-census-confirms/

 

Several Democrats poll well compared to Trump in PA based on early polls and much of the difference between Biden and others is likely tied to name recognition.  

 

(Now, I will say some of your points are true.  For example moderate in terms of health care.  Government employees and many college graduates aren't far to the left on health care.  But not for the reasons you explain.)

 

On another note, there is very little evidence that a VP helps you carry a home state.  The idea of Warren/Ryan ticket is bad.

Edited by PeterMP

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2 minutes ago, hail2skins said:

Simmsy, the degree to which voters being exhausted by Trump being a pain in the ass with his "look at me" hijinks on Twitter on a daily basis has to no doubt be taken into consideration.

 

On the other hand, the voters who concern me are the ones who are going to look at, at least by the numbers, a good economy, and the fact that we are not involved in a major conflict overseas. Of course how each individuals are doing in the current economy is tough to say. All we really have to go by the overall numbers. But the number of people who are going to look at the bottom-line numbers and say, "you know, he is a pain in the ass, but things are not going so bad under him."

 

I think there are many people in that category who are going to put him over the top again. 

I'm so low on the totem pole that my economic stance never really changes. However, the economy is doing ok (not Obama numbers), but it seems to fortune the wealthy more than the everyday working person. Any democratic presidential candidate with half a brain only has to ask the hypothetical question of "how is the economy treating you?". Right, left, black, white, people notice their paychecks. However, I do know some Trumpers who swear that everything picked up as soon as he got into office, just by his name a lone being affiliated with the presidency.

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12 minutes ago, Simmsy said:

However, I do know some Trumpers who swear that everything picked up as soon as he got into office, just by his name a lone being affiliated with the presidency

we had a poster on this board who was excited about the extra dollar they got in their check after the Trump Tax Cuts.

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11 minutes ago, BenningRoadSkin said:

we had a poster on this board who was excited about the extra dollar they got in their check after the Trump Tax Cuts.

That can be lottery ticket money...wait, does that count as socialism/getting something for free/a hand out?

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