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Presidential Election: 11/3/20 ---Now the President Elect Joe Biden Thread


88Comrade2000
Message added by TK,

 

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So, just to give an idea of how all over the place some of these polls are, here are the important numbers from the three NH Polls released this week:

 

CBS:
Warren 27

Biden 26

Sanders 25

Buttigieg 8

Harris 7

Gabbard 1

 

Emerson:

Biden 24 

Warren 21

Sanders 13

Buttigieg 11

Harris 8

Gabbard 6

 

Boston Herald:

Sanders 29

Biden 21 

Warren 17

Harris 6

Buttigieg 5

Gabbard 3

 

(note: Gabbard doesn't finish in the top 6 in 2/3 of these polls, I just wanted to highlight the variance with her numbers)

 

I mean, the smart thing to do obviously is look at the average and conclude that it's a three way scrum for 1st in the state right now. But, while some differences in poll numbers is to be expected, these kinds of swings (which seem really common this year) among reputable pollsters are kind of crazy. Biden varying by 5 points is understandable, and Harris' are consistent. But Warren being in a 10 point range seems extreme, and it's not the worst of it. Sanders being anywhere from running away with the state to being in danger of hitting single digits and falling to 4th is just insane. Gabbard is irrelevant in 2 polls, but in another is about to burst into an upper tier. 

 

I always tell people not to react too much to one poll, and this is a pretty good example of why. Hell, the above makes you wonder what we're looking at even thru the prism of multiple polls.

 

 

 

 

 

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