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Presidential Election :11/3/2020- Trump the Impeached vs Superplanner Lizzie & some other Dems

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3 hours ago, NoCalMike said:

Trump denying the polls and facts in general is part of what makes him who he is.  He is a con man.  He is Lyle Lanley from The Simpsons convincing Springfield they need a monorail in their city.  

 

Nice pull!

 

Image result for monorail simpsons gif

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2 hours ago, twa said:

 

How will that polling change as the polling models change though?

Who actually votes is what matters.

 

Yes, we are all aware that polling and voting are not the same thing.  Your brilliant analysis is noted. 

2 hours ago, NoCalMike said:

 

I don't know. That is as honest as I can be.  In my liberal bubble, of course the answer is "No, they won't be conned twice" however you also have to remember that it isn't just Trump that is running the con, it is the GOP in it's entirety, Fox, right-wing radio, facebook etc etc etc.......it is not like Trump is attempting to do this on his own. 

 

Also, once the field of Dems is narrowed down and we eventually get the nominee, it will add an entire new aspect to this because it won't just being about how bad Trump is anymore, but also how effectively right-wing media can tear down his opponent.  All of those "reluctant Trump voters" will only need to be convinced that while Trump is not the greatest.....his opponent is a "insert whatever here" so you must vote Trump again to prevent America from "insert whatever here" 

 

Those are several reasons why I underlined "right now" in my post.  Certainly those things are going to happen, so you (if you don't care for him) want Trump's numbers to be as far in the dumps as possible right now, and you want him to be in denial enough to not care to change people's opinions.  

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1 hour ago, Momma There Goes That Man said:

 

Quite honestly, this is a disqualifying statement. Whatever candidacy he had, should be over right now. 

 

Its funny watching the front runner (according to polls which mean idk what right now) for the dems to be pushing the “republicans aren’t actually bad/stupid people they’re just following trump for some reason, get trump out of the way and they’ll be reasonable again”

 

they havent been reasonable since the clinton presidency and that’s as far back as my observations go. So it could be worse. 

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3 hours ago, NoCalMike said:

All of those "reluctant Trump voters" will only need to be convinced that while Trump is not the greatest.....his opponent is a "insert whatever here" so you must vote Trump again to prevent America from "insert whatever here" 

 

Honestly, it’s easier than that. 

 

The “reluctant trump voters” I’ve been talking to spent most of 2018 distancing themselves and coming around to the idea that party doesn’t matter, this guy is unfit for the job at a dangerous level. 

 

Now? All I hear them talking about is how they paid significantly less in taxes. How happy they are about that. And how it was all trumps doing. 

 

My current guess is somewhere around 50% of the “reluctant trump voter” has already changed their mind and is eager to vote for him in the election. Doesn’t matter who the opponent is. 

 

People vote with their pocketbooks. And if not that, then some other 1 or 2 issues that are dear to them. 

 

Hope the dnc has a plan. It’s going to be harder the second time around. 

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I haven't heard anyone that isn't already totally in the bag for Trump cheer that they received a huge tax return.  His tax bill is extremely unpopular nationally.

 

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/04/15/donald-trump-tax-cuts-unpopular-1273469

 

Quote

As Americans rush Monday to finish with their own tax filings, their judgment on Trump’s beloved tax cut bill is pretty clear: Most really don’t like it.

 

Multiple polls show a majority of Americans don’t think they got a tax cut at all — even though independent analyses show they did. And only about a third of the country approves of the legislation itself, the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, passed by Congress at the end of 2017.

 

So as Trump moves closer to full-time reelection mode later this year, he will have to battle a stark reality: While his personal rating on the economy remains high, his signature legislative achievement is widely viewed as a political dud, one that has drawn special anger in places with high state and local taxes and pricey housing markets where deductions were limited to reduce the overall cost of the tax plan.

 

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15 minutes ago, PleaseBlitz said:

 

I haven't heard anyone that isn't already totally in the bag for Trump cheer that they received a huge tax return.  His tax bill is extremely unpopular nationally.

 

I got a huge tag return and I’m not voting for him

(I also don’t think he had jack **** to do with the tax bill other then signing it)

 

most people around here did pretty well based on what I hear. 

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Educator, did considerably worse. Hmmmm . . .

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13 minutes ago, BenningRoadSkin said:

Only the really wealthy like Trump's tax code revision so that's probably your circles, my G.

People that make less than 100k. Some of them household is about 100k. 

 

i realize that’s your all’s narrative but it’s not necessarily the truth. At least not everywhere. 

 

 

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Posted (edited)

When it comes to the Trump tax cuts.  I don't think you argue over what the middle class did or didn't get back.  Don't get lost in the woods because it is going to be so specific to every individual/family, that you are going to get caught trying to argue semantics.  How you frame it is asking why in order for the middle class to get a tiny % tax break, did it require the wealthiest Americans to get a huge tax break?  Then you ask, of those tax breaks the wealthy received, how much of it translated into more jobs, less exporting of jobs, higher wages, etc etc etc.......The Dems fall into this trap every time with the tax issue.  We already know the GOP is willing to give the middle class a few crumbs and hope they shut up and don't ask questions when billionaires at the same time receive massive cuts.  However, and this is the issue, the GOP never sells these tax cuts as "we are cutting taxes on millionaires and billionaires because we think they should get to keep more of their fortune"  Nope.  It is *always* sold that giving them more of their money back is going to help everyone else.  That is the story they tell everyone every time and it needs to be pushed back on because the data shows it isn't true, and has never been true.

Edited by NoCalMike
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@NoCalMike additionally it needs to be highlighted that all of these tax cuts come from service cuts or increased debt. 

 

The services that get cut disproportionally affect the lower and middle class compared to the upper class. 

 

 

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1 hour ago, PleaseBlitz said:

 

Yes, we are all aware that polling and voting are not the same thing.  Your brilliant analysis is noted. 

 

 

 

My point was the polling methodology change as the election nears.

 

But I'm sure ya'll know that as well.

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47 minutes ago, NoCalMike said:

When it comes to the Trump tax cuts.  I don't think you argue over what the middle class did or didn't get back.  Don't get lost in the woods because it is going to be so specific to every individual/family, that you are going to get caught trying to argue semantics.  How you frame it is asking why in order for the middle class to get a tiny % tax break, did it require the wealthiest Americans to get a huge tax break?  Then you ask, of those tax breaks the wealthy received, how much of it translated into more jobs, less exporting of jobs, higher wages, etc etc etc.......The Dems fall into this trap every time with the tax issue.  We already know the GOP is willing to give the middle class a few crumbs and hope they shut up and don't ask questions when billionaires at the same time receive massive cuts.  However, and this is the issue, the GOP never sells these tax cuts as "we are cutting taxes on millionaires and billionaires because we think they should get to keep more of their fortune"  Nope.  It is *always* sold that giving them more of their money back is going to help everyone else.  That is the story they tell everyone every time and it needs to be pushed back on because the data shows it isn't true, and has never been true.

 

It HAS been framed like that and people DO hate the new tax law and, in fact, more American's believe that they did not get a tax cut when they actually did.  

 

https://news.gallup.com/opinion/polling-matters/249161/public-opinion-2017-tax-law.aspx

 

Quote

Gallup's data show that 43% of Americans are unsure how the 2017 bill affected their taxes. Pew research similarly shows that over four in 10 Americans don't know what effect the TCJA had on their taxes -- and that only 26% of Americans say they understand the new tax law "very well."

 

In reality, taxes did go down for the majority of Americans in 2018 as a result of the new law, and few saw them go up. As the Tax Policy Center concluded: "About 65% of households paid less in individual income taxes in 2018 as a result of the TCJA. About 6% paid more. The rest paid about the same."

 

However, and this is a real key, there is no evidence of widespread recognition of this reality on Americans' part. In addition to those who can't say what effect the law had, Gallup's latest survey shows that 21% of Americans say their taxes went up in 2018, compared with only 14% who say their taxes went down (21% say they stayed the same). A number of other surveys show the same type of result.

 

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Well good.  I hope it is hammered upon even more during the campaign & debates. 

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Read: Joe Biden's remarks as prepared for delivery in Iowa

 

Quote

Do you think he just backed off his tariff threat with Mexico because he got some tough new deal? Maybe there's some secret development yet to be revealed — But based on what we know, it seems more like old wine in new bottles.


And the truth is he's scared -- his economic folks told him his tough talk was about to cost to him Michigan and Ohio and Iowa.


But don't kid yourself -- another bad news story -- and he'll be back with tariffs to change the subject. And the people who will get hurt are just pawns in his game.
Trump doesn't get the basics.


He thinks his tariffs are being paid by China. Any beginning econ student at Iowa or Iowa State could tell you that the American people are paying his tariffs. The cashiers at Target see what's going on -- they know more about economics than Trump.

 

Quote

What did he tell Piers Morgan in that interview? "Well the weather goes both ways".


It reminds me of when he tweeted in the winter that since it was cold outside there was no climate warming. Or how about when he said the way to deal with California's fires was to rake the leaves? It would be funny if it wasn't so serious.


If he was just another rich guy sitting in his gold-plated apartment in Manhattan tweeting about how those pointy-headed scientists don't know anything, it wouldn't matter. But he's President.

 

Quote

And how about health care? Remember when Trump's Justice Department decided to argue that the Affordable Care Act in its entirety is unconstitutional just a few months ago?


Now he's got his tail between his legs and barely mentions it -- doesn't even tweet about it -- because he knows the American people will give him a thrashing in 2020 just like they gave the Republicans in 2018 for trying to get rid of it.


Well -- guess what? If I become the nominee of this party, I'm going to give Trump a thrashing every day on health care.

 

Quote

As Democrats, we often say Trump poses a threat to this nation. But what do we mean?


Sometimes I think it's said so often we don't realize just how serious a threat he is -- and why. I believe Trump is an existential threat to America.


I've said many times that we can overcome four years of Trump -- but if we give him eight years in the White House he will forever and fundamentally alter the character of this nation.


So -- what is the threat?


Beyond the issues, I believe Trump poses three fundamental threats to America.


First, to our core values. What we stand for. What we believe. We saw it in Charlottesville.


White supremacists and Neo-Nazis and the KKK came out of the fields, their faces lit by torchlight, chanting the same anti-Semitic bile heard in Europe in the 1930s.


They clashed with a group of brave Americans who had the courage to stand up to hate.


Trump's response: There were "very fine people on both sides."


Once he said that, I knew the threat this nation was facing was unlike any in my lifetime -- and I knew I was going to have to run for president.


We see it at the border where Trump has ripped children from the arms of their parents and put them in cages. This isn't who we are.


"We hold these truths self-evident -- that all men -- and all women -- are created equal."


It's the American creed. But Trump sneers at it. He thinks it makes us weak. He has no idea it's what makes us strong.


Honesty. Decency. Treating everyone with dignity.


Demonizing no one -- not the poor, the powerless, the immigrant, the other. Giving hate no safe harbor. Understanding that as Americans we are part of something bigger than ourselves.


Does anyone in this room think Donald Trump understands that?

 

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My taxes increased significantly.  My rich Trump loving boss congratulated me for joining the liberal elite.

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Those Biden remarks are actually good.  They go right at Trump and are all valid points and not just insults.  More of that please.

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5 hours ago, NoCalMike said:

 

I don't know. That is as honest as I can be.  In my liberal bubble, of course the answer is "No, they won't be conned twice" however you also have to remember that it isn't just Trump that is running the con, it is the GOP in it's entirety, Fox, right-wing radio, facebook etc etc etc.......it is not like Trump is attempting to do this on his own. 

 

Also, once the field of Dems is narrowed down and we eventually get the nominee, it will add an entire new aspect to this because it won't just being about how bad Trump is anymore, but also how effectively right-wing media can tear down his opponent.  All of those "reluctant Trump voters" will only need to be convinced that while Trump is not the greatest.....his opponent is a "insert whatever here" so you must vote Trump again to prevent America from "insert whatever here" 

It depends on who the nominee is.  If they nominate to far to the left, Trump and the GOP will beat them to the ground.  Scare them to death about the coming socialism apocalypse from the Dem nominee.  If people were stupid enough to vote for for Trump in the first place, they will be stupid enough to vote for him again. 

 

 

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4 minutes ago, NoCalMike said:

Those Biden remarks are actually good.  They go right at Trump and are all valid points and not just insults.  More of that please.

 

Yea, they were excellent.  He actually got heckled by someone at the beginning and handled it really well too.  The crowd started shouting down the heckler and Biden said something to the effect of "chill out, this isn't a Trump rally" then he invited the heckler to stick around and promised he'd sit down and talk to them after he finished his remarks.  Who does that?

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5 hours ago, LadySkinsFan said:

I think we (the electorate) need to pay attention to what happened during the 2018 election season and who was elected to the House. The more I see, I am supporting a Warren - Buttigieg ticket. Wisdom, policies, youth, female, healthcare, foreign policy, getting things done.

 

We need to take the best and most feasible ideas from all the Democrats running and put them in the platform. Then down ballot candidates can choose which ones to run on in their communities. 

 

Of course I will vote for the Democratic nominee. Let's field the best slate across the board and build on 2018 excitement and resultant gains.

A gay man , no matter how good he is; will not help a ticket in 2020 against Trump.  They are large swaths of voters that will not vote for a gay man for president or vice president.

 

 

 

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Biden is staking out his niche. He’s the anti-trump. He doesn’t have policies that appeal to the middle class and poor, he doesn’t shake the status quo, he doesn’t push the party forward, he doesn’t do anything appealing at all. But he’s not trump and he’s going to attack Trump when other candidates haven’t really taken gone there yet. 

 

Thats all Biden is willing to bring to the table 

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29 minutes ago, Momma There Goes That Man said:

Biden is staking out his niche. He’s the anti-trump. He doesn’t have policies that appeal to the middle class and poor, he doesn’t shake the status quo, he doesn’t push the party forward, he doesn’t do anything appealing at all. But he’s not trump and he’s going to attack Trump when other candidates haven’t really taken gone there yet. 

 

Thats all Biden is willing to bring to the table 

 

Not being Trump and having the polling to show you can beat Trump is a compelling offer right now. Though I admit having a positive set of alternative policy proposals would be very welcome as well.

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